AUTHOR:
TerrorismCentral Editorial Staff
TITLE:
TerrorismCentral Newsletter - January 5, 2003
SOURCE:
TerrorismCentral, January 5, 2003
TEXT:
Welcome to the annual Year in Review issue, featuring the key events of 2002.
A printed version of the complete 2002 collection of all 52 weeks of news reviews and articles will be available later this month. Email for details.
All terrorism is local. Attacks are designed against a local population rather than an abstract political entity. But in a world that seems ever smaller, the technological and economic trends towards globalization mean that local events can have a broad international impact. The year 2002 was when the threat of international terrorism, already active for more than thirty years, was finally recognized, although the daily reality of that threat differs widely depending on where you stand in the world. This Year in Review looks at the major events and trends that occurred in 2002 and helps to provide a global context in which to understand a year of increasing insecurity and the underlying substance behind widespread terrorism and political violence, as well as their causes and contributing factors.
SECTIONS:
1. Africa
2. Americas
3. Asia Pacific
4. Europe
5. Middle East
6. South Asia
7. TC Year in Review 2002
1. Africa
Let?s begin with some good news. Peace agreements or ceasefires have been reached in six of Africa?s most intransigent conflicts:
* Angola?s 27-year old civil war ended weeks after UNITA rebel leader Jonas Savimbi was killed by government soldiers. (See ?Jonas Savimbi: His Life and Death? March 10) Now the challenge facing the government is to eliminate the widespread corruption that has lined the pockets of government officials and corporations and direct the profits of oil and diamonds to rebuilding civil society.
* Burundi is welcoming a ceasefire between the Hutu rebel Forces for the Defense of Democracy (FDD) and the Tutsi-dominated army. The agreement also calls for increased power sharing following a conflict that dates back to 1993.
* Democratic Republic of Congo has had one of the longest-running conflicts that has drawn in its neighbors and therefore seemed particularly intractable. (See ?Opportunities in Africa Part 2: DR Congo? August 11) Now that the countries sponsoring rebel groups are reaching agreements, it looks as if peace could have real opportunities. The agreement between DRC and Rwanda is particularly hopeful. DR Congo is another country rich in natural resources that should help rebuilding.
* Sierra Leone held elections in May that included the participation of the rebel Revolutionary United Front (RUF). The RUF, minus their imprisoned leader Foday Sankoh, was soundly defeated in an election in which the RUF?s propensity for maiming their political opponents was not forgiven. Sierra Leone is a country that will need much healing after the atrocities it has experienced.
* Somalia managed to pull together a meeting with the interim government and the main factional groups. They have begun working towards a federated model that would begin to rebuild a government that had collapsed in 1991. As the discussions proceed, regional warlords and ethnic battles continue, and Somalia?s failed government has proven a convenient haven for terrorists. This also provides the international community a strong incentive to aid in the rebuilding.
* Sudan?s government and the Sudan People?s Liberation Army rebels signed an agreement in principal to lead to the end of the 19-year old civil war. There have been a number of ceasefire breaches, but the discussions are proceeding. (See ?Opportunities in Africa Part 1: The Sudan? August 4)
One change that will help maintain the peace in several of these areas is the movement to stop the trade in diamonds that have been used to fund many of the longest-running wars. (See ?Blood diamonds? July 14)
On another positive note, the recent elections in Kenya ended in a peaceful handover to the opposition party -- the first time in 40 years of rule by the Kanu party, including 24 years under Daniel arap Moi. (See ?Kenya, Moi and Africa?s Big Men", December 29).
And finally, we can celebrate the new African Union (AU) replacing the old dictator?s club the Organization of African Unity. Their efforts to work with international organizations like the International Monetary Fund and World Bank to increase transparency, improve governance, reduce debt and inspire foreign investment offers opportunities for great progress. . (See ?Opportunities in Africa Part 3: Great Risks/Great Rewards? August 18)
On the negative side, the AIDS pandemic is leading to widespread disruption of economic, social and political structures across the continent. With countries such as Botswana and Swaziland facing prevalence rates of more than a third of the population, we face an immediate and urgent crisis that must be promptly addressed. The risk of nations failing because of this horrific epidemic, as well as the risks of other infectious diseases and diseases of poverty, is real and immediate. (See ?Global AIDS Epidemic? December 1)
In addition, political violence is on the increase in areas that used to provide rich economic growth and stability. Ivory Coast is a particular disaster. From Africa?s most stable country, it now has three active rebel groups that control half of the country and is relying on French troops to try to maintain a semblance of order.
Zimbabwe is in even worse shape, facing widespread hunger (as does much of southern Africa); the situation has been greatly exacerbated by the disastrous land policies implemented by President Robert Mugabe?s increasingly dictatorial regime.
Another growing risk is the spread of radical Islam, primarily among northern states. This has led to serious conflicts in Nigeria, where implementation of Sharia law is harsh and controversial, as well as long-running problems in Algeria and elsewhere. These conflicts threaten to spread rapidly and will be difficult to control.
US and allied interests in Africa create attractive targets for terrorist activities. A major attack was against an Israeli hotel in Mombasa, Kenya, were eleven Kenyans and three Israelis were killed. A synagogue in Tunisia and the bombing of an oil tanker off the Yemeni coast were also attributed to al Qaeda and their affiliates.
There have also been a number of occupations and protests at oil installations, where local residents have asked for greater participation in the wealth of foreign commercial interests, particularly oil companies operating in Nigeria. This should be a relatively simple issue to resolve, by engaging local resources. The continued presence of US troops and related interests will present a greater challenge. They will provide attractive targets for assassinations and soft-target attacks against expatriate institutions.
Rates of crime also present issues for many locations. South Africa in particular has seen rapid increases in crime and the re-emergence of radical right-wing white supremacist groups attempting terrorist attacks.
2. Americas
There is little good news in the Americas as economic and political turmoil increase in both the North and South.
Although the right-wing dictators of Latin America have largely been replaced with democratically elected leaders concerned to rebuild the countries and their political systems, indigenous peoples continue to face deprivation and discrimination.
The tri-border area of Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay was once stable and successful, but now, with neighboring Venezuela, faces economic calamity leading to increasing political instability. Venezuela, one of the world?s largest oil exporters only a few months ago, has been forced to import oil from Brazil and violent protests continue to roil the increasingly divided country.
Argentina?s economy has collapsed and internal protests are on the rise, as is also happening in Venezuela. In both cases, expect economic collapse to lead to the resurrection of dormant rebel groups and paramilitary organizations.
The tri-border area has often supported the easy movement of secret forces including drug dealers but that more and more frequently offers extremists, including radicals from Hizbollah and Hamas, a safe place to operate. Radical Islamic cells can now be throughout the Americas, from the farthest south all the way through Canada.
Colombia?s paramilitaries, the United Self Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC), have said they wanted to rejoin public life and have asked for peace talks. The National Liberation Front (ELN) rebels abandoned their efforts to discuss an agreement with the government, convinced the new President is interested only in eradicating militant organizations. (See ?Paramilitaries in Colombia?, April 28)
The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), the largest rebel group in Colombia, has taken advantage of the AUC?s unilateral ceasefire to attack them, their bitter enemies. They continue attacks against government interests but have expanded from their former safe harbor to operate in cities. It is thought they have received training in urban operations from members of the Irish Republican Army. Three IRA members face trial on such charges. (See ?The IRA/FARC Connection? April 21)
Peru?s left-wing rebels, dominated by the Shining Path, have been largely dormant. The man largely responsible for their ruthless repression was Alberto Fujimoro. Now in exile in Japan, he is planning a comeback. But the Peruvian courts have other ideas. The anti-terrorism legislation he originated has been declared unconstitutional, entitling many leading rebels to new trials. In the meantime, they are likely to remain in prison.
Mexico began the year with a new President Fox reaching out to the rural poor and involving the Zapatista rebel movement in efforts to improve the situation among these poorest elements of society. Fox?s promises have not been met, and it remains to be seen what tactics the rural poor will choose. They had little success in attempted farm occupations this year.
Mexico on the southern border with the US suffered mightily after the September 11 attacks as border controls began to repress travel and trade with great detriment to both sides. This situation has eased, but the northern border with Canada and conflicting approaches to security policies have led to difficult relations between the US and Canada. Although they have agreed to allow cross-border incursions in the event of extraordinary circumstances, such as a terrorist attack, there is less trust and more anxiety than perhaps ever before. Canada, proud of its reputation for supporting refugees, has seen this backfire amid allegations of support for terrorist cells. Most recently, Arabs and Muslims wanted on minor immigration issues in the US have asked for asylum in Canada, justifiably afraid they will be detained indefinitely without charge and without access to counsel.
US treatment of immigrants, prisoners, and regular citizens has led to accusations of human rights abuses. There have been mass arrests of people, based on race, religion, and coincidence, that have led to indefinite detentions without charge and without access to counsel. Widespread deportations without hearing or appeal and not always to the country of residence have also occurred. This has occurred both to US and non-US citizens. Particularly worrying is the attempt to classify US citizens arrested in the US as military combatants, thus depriving them of all basic rights.
The prisoners arrested in Afghanistan and elsewhere have been detained since being captured in appalling conditions and without being allowed the basic provisions set out in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. At the most basic level, they have neither been classified as Prisoners of War nor have they been given a hearing to determine their status. While many are held in solitary confinement in cages built in the US base at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, others are held in a variety of countries. Their names and locations are not disclosed; families are not notified. As has been recently reported, in addition to these conditions, they have been subject to torture methods at the hands of the Central Intelligence Agency. In addition, terrorist suspects and their companions are subject to targeted assassinations, including the use of remote bombs.
The tactics adopted by the US following the September 11 attacks removed the Taliban from power in Afghanistan. They have not captured most of the major leaders in Taliban or al Qaeda. The al Qaeda network has not been significantly disrupted. In fact, US tactics have led to greater disaffection in the Muslim and Arab worlds and have contributed to the growth and strengthening of ties among militant Islamic groups around the world. These groups now act against a common enemy in a network that now stretches in every corner of the world. In a bizarre twist, rather than addressing these genuine risks and frequent attacks against US interests, the Bush administration has now turned its attention to Iraq.
While the US government pursues its agenda of revenge (and re-election?) the US public remains insulated from the reality of international terrorism. While France and the UK provide information campaigns and Israel supplies gas masks, US citizens remain uninformed and uninvolved. It is past time that US exploitation of world resources, particularly oil, stop determining foreign policy. Equally important, the government must stop pretending that abrogation of freedom and the centralization and secrecy of government will lead to security. Instead, there must be investment in local resources (including resolving the shortage of emergency rooms) and in enrolling people in the fight against terrorism -- starting by reducing oil use and remembering to give blood regularly, not just after a tragedy. (See ?Ten Things You Can Do To Help Combat Terrorism At Its Roots? October 27)
Not neglecting home-grown terrorist groups, the remnants of the Symbionese Liberation Army have faced justice in a bank robbery in which one person died. After years of hiding, Sarah Jane Olson was sentenced to a long jail term, as were her colleagues. The last member at large, James Kilgore was found in South Africa and has been extradited to serve a sentence for his participation. Plans by leaders of the Jewish Defense League to bomb Muslim targets were thwarted and the planners await trial.
It has also been interesting to see the difficulties caused in the terrorist investigation, not just the well-documented problems of intelligence sharing and cross-database searching, but also the widespread use of false identities and the massive problems this has caused. (See ?Identity Theft? November 24 and related topics in the December 15 and 22 issues. (This is also a useful tool used by those financing terrorist activities, as described in the series ?Financing of Terrorism? published January 12, 19 and 27.)
3. Asia Pacific
Indonesia was the scene of the year?s worst terrorist attack, when two bombs exploded on the island of Bali the night of October 12. The Sari Club and Paddy?s Café were completely destroyed. Full of holiday makers and party goers, more than 180 people died and over 500 were injured from 18 different countries.
Australians were particularly shocked by the Bali bombing. Of the dead who could be identified, 59 came from Australia. Bali was a prime tourist destination and after this attack Australia felt personally threatened by terrorism for the first time.
While the Australians and other foreigners were swiftly evacuated, the Indonesians were left to make shift with the limited local facilities and to use their scarce resources to try to rebuild. The first task was a purification ritual designed to overcome the evil of the attack. The next task was to try to ease fears of security and rebuild the tourist industry no which much of the economy depends.
Local Islamic militants were held responsible for the Bali Bombing. Indonesia is the largest Muslim country in the world and is attempting to build democratic institutions among the vast spread of islands and different cultures it hosts. Indonesian intelligence and police forces, often guilty in the past of great atrocities, were highly successful on this occasion to rely on intelligence and the cooperation of the citizenry to swiftly identify the alleged perpetrators and begin capturing those involved in the plot. The first trials will begin soon.
Militant Islamic groups have been active in other areas of Asia, as well. But until recently, the local separatist groups presented a greater threat. There are not always clear lines among the various militant organizations or criminal organizations. For example, the Abu Sayyaf operates in the Philippines. They are interested in an independent Islamic state and may have ties with other organizations that have a similar motivation and would like an Islamic empire across Southeast Asia. But they are best known for their criminal activities, particularly kidnapping for money. (See ?Kidnapping?, October 6) US troops have conducted military training exercises with Philippine forces and helped them attempt to recover kidnapped Philippine and US hostages.
Other recent attacks in the Philippines were undertaken by communist rebels of the New People?s Army and by the Moro National Liberation Front.
Thailand has felt itself still immune from the attacks suffered in Indonesia, but the discovery that Indonesian militants and international Islamic militant groups have visited the area has raised concerns and led to additional efforts to prevent attacks.
No country in the area is exempt from these activities. A militant cell was even uncovered in Singapore, which has some of the most repressive social legislation in the world.
Repressive regimes are no indicator of security. Burma, still ruled by a repressive military junta, has seen continued violence among its ethnic minorities, even after violent repression that has included the systematic rape and enslavement of women and children. On a positive note, Burma has released democratic activist Aung San Suu Kyi and is beginning to establish relations with neighboring countries. (See ?Burma in the News? May 12)
North Korea?s renewal of their nuclear program presents yet another threat. Monitoring equipment has been removed and the UN inspectors sent home as North Korea refuels their reactor and prepares to start producing plutonium in the near future. This goes well beyond a secret uranium enrichment program and is an immediate threat to the region and to global security overall.
Events in North Korea were largely triggered by US policy to punish the already desperately impoverished country, including further sanctions and recent attempts to cut off arms sales, one of the few remaining goods the North Koreans can offer. This has led to strained relations between the US and South Korea, where new President Roh was elected for his support in favor of continuing the sunshine policy to improve relations between the two Koreas, and to distance the relationship with the US. South Korea?s relationship with the US has been further strained by a US military presence subject only to its own laws and thereby increasingly unwelcome.
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations has agreed to cooperate in terrorist investigations and to share intelligence and enforcement actions. Their greatest immediate challenge will be around security of maritime routes. (See ?Maritime Security?, June 23)
The broad risks of terrorism should not obscure another important fact: the greatest immediate risk to the area is from the AIDS pandemic. In particular, the risks of spreading infection in China could lead to an unparalleled disaster. (See ?Global AIDS Epidemic? December 1)
On a positive note, we were happy to welcome East Timor to the community of nations. (See ?The Newest Nation? May 19) They have made remarkable progress in rebuilding the country, establishing democratic institutions, and coming to terms with its cruel past. Kudos to President Gusmao and his colleagues and the support team from the UN.
A peace agreement in the Indonesian province Aceh between the Indonesian government and the separatist Free Aceh Movement (GAM) is also a welcome development. The ceasefire is shaky, and details remain to be worked out, but it is another positive sign. Indonesia?s promise to help rebuild the province puts some muscle behind the promise.
4. Europe
Europeans in the front line of support for the ?war against terrorism? have found relations with the US strained over policies towards Iraq and North Korea and issues of human rights. War in Iraq is treated with suspicion because the threat does not seem immediate and the military build-up is broadly seen as a distraction away from counter-terrorism. The use of international political institutions, particularly the UN, to address broad international issues, including inspections and sanctions, is strongly held in Europe and seen as an elective option by the US. Extradition of terrorist suspects to the US has been held up by the desire to impose the death penalty and treatment of foreign nationals has not always met due process requirements.
Nonetheless, European countries have been highly effective in cooperating with intelligence and enforcement across European borders. (The US has been largely uncooperative in these efforts.) They have succeeded in following the interconnected threads of militant groups throughout the continent and unraveling the convoluted actions of suspected terrorists. The current trial in Germany of Mounir al-Motassadek has been of particular interest in revealing operational patterns of al Qaeda and related militant organizations.
Traditional dissident European radical groups have been caught up in the general crackdown against terrorism. Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, Britain and France have arrested not only large numbers of alleged Islamic militants, but also people involved in anti-Semitic groups and the radical right. France and the UK both uncovered alleged plots to release chemical agents, possibly in the underground/metro.
Spain and France have successfully collaborated on cross-border crimes in the continued low intensity conflict conducted by the Basque separatist group ETA. A shadow was cast over these efforts with two successful escapes from French custody.
Greece had a lucky break this year when a militant from the largely defunct November 17 terrorist group was captured and provided an opening that eventually led to the capture of most of the leaders and members, who now face trial.
In Northern Ireland, the peace process agreed under the Good Friday agreement received a major setback this year when the process of devolution was suspended and the Stormont assembly disengaged. The precipitating factor was the discovery of alleged Irish Republican Army infiltration of security services including the police special branch. But allegations of IRA support for the FARC in Colombia, continued sectarian attacks and the recent loyalist feud have also led to mistrust. Despite this, discussions continue, and the Good Friday agreement, although under strain, remains intact. (See articles on ?Bloody Sunday? February 3, ?The Good Friday Agreement and the Omagh Bombing? February 10, ?Paramilitaries and Peace? February 17 and ?Thirty Years On? July 21.)
The Russian Federation is in a different situation. It is allied with Iran, where it is building a nuclear reactor, and Iraq where there are a number of pending trade agreements. Russia has distanced itself from war in Iraq and the ?axis of evil? discussions, but has enthusiastically embraced the ?war on terrorism? to justify its actions in Chechnya?s long-running war for independence. They have drawn somewhat dubious connections between with Islamic interests in Chechnya and with al Qaeda and Islamic militant groups and use these allegations to justify serious human rights violations and determined military force. (See a 2-part series on the Caucasus, November 3 and November 10)
Sympathy leaned toward the Chechen independence movement until the November theatre siege in Moscow in which images of armed Chechen women equipped for suicide bombs pushed public opinion against them. At least 128 people died in that siege. Five of the victims died from gunshots. A narcotic gas that Russian authorities pumped into the theatre killed the rest. Use of this gas led to widespread criticism and exploration of the validity of so-called ?non-lethal? weapons.
Another theme common in Europe last year was that of immigration and its control. Issues ranged from the murder of anti-immigrant Dutch politician Fortuyn to German court striking down a proposal to bring in immigrants to ease a labor shortage to human trafficking in the Balkans. One of the most potent symbols of the immigration controversy was the Sangette camp in France, near the channel crossing to the UK. Hosting Iraqi Kurd and Afghani asylum seekers, the camp was the focus of high levels of illegal entries into the UK and a debate over how to handle refugees. The controversial camp was recently closed, following an agreement between France and Britain. The EU is attempting to develop a common immigration policy that would include interception and enforcement efforts to stop the problem before people are exploited and desperate. (See ?From Migration to Human Trafficking? June 2, ?The Case of Sangette? June 9 and ?Tunnel Security? June 16.)
5. Middle East
Conflicts within the Middle East were pushed aside in favor of conflicts by the Middle Eastern. As a strategy to control spiraling violence in the area, it was a dismal failure.
In the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians of the occupied Gaza Strip and West Bank, more than 1200 were killed, over three-quarters of them Palestinians. Of the Palestinian deaths, around 20 percent were from suicides. Most of the others resulted from battles with security forces, in which the Israeli Defense Forces routinely use fighter jets, helicopter gunships and bomb and shell the densely populated Palestinian areas. There were also a number of deaths resulting from the destruction of buildings. The long siege of Jenin last year was the best known of these.
The number of fatalities cited above does not include those who died because medical support was withheld.) In addition to large numbers of children and the elderly, much attention recently was drawn to the deaths and injuries among United Nations workers.
Most of the Israeli deaths were the result of the activities of Palestinian suicide bombers. There were 22 such incidents last year. The greatest fatalities took place where people ate and while they road on buses. The largest single attack, and the deadliest of the 2-year old Intifada, was in a hotel in Netanya when 28 Israelis celebrating Passover were killed. Hamas claimed responsibility.
The Palestinian suicide bombings, directed against civilian targets, are grave violations of human rights. Other violations of human rights are conducted by the government of Israel, including targeted assassinations, mass arrests with indefinite detention without charge, and torture. Israel is also responsible for destroying thousands of homes, most agricultural production, and the basic infrastructure of Palestinian society. Both sides of this conflict are ruthless in the impact on children -- and the legacy this leaves for a generation of children who have known nothing but violence.
Israel?s relationship with the US, the plight of the Palestinians and the drama of suicide bombings tend to distract from an equally intractable conflict -- in Algeria. The death toll in excess of 1,500 was lower than it has been during most of the 10-year conflict that has claimed more than 100,000, but it is still the highest number of casualties anywhere in the Middle East last year.
Algeria?s struggle is primarily between the ruling military and militant Islamic groups, the largest of which is the Armed Islamic Group (GIA) and the second the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat. Generally, GIA is credited with more attacks against civilians. On a smaller scale, there have also been violent clashes between the military and the Berber minority (about a third of the country). The new President, elected in 1999, has agreed to respect many Berber demands and freed many political prisoners, but has made little progress in controlling executions and massacres on the part of the army.
Elsewhere in the Middle East, authoritarian regimes have managed to control dissidents of all persuasions. Military and financial support for these regimes is one of the sources of resentment among the civilian populations, that look longingly towards democratic freedoms that have been crushed under the weight of US money and US commercial interests, primarily oil. These US interests have been and will increasingly be the subject of terrorist attacks and other protests.
Security in Yemen remains problematic, particularly around the maritime industry.
6. South Asia
Afghanistan began the year free from Taliban rule as the first international peacekeepers arrived and the process of rebuilding the devastated country slowly began. Security in the country remains its number one problem, with conflicting warlords, an armed population, remnants of the Taliban and al Qaeda attacking both military and civilian targets, and conservative Islamists angry at stirrings of secular society, particularly with the increased visibility of women. Hamid Karzai survived an attempted assassination, but two of his officials were killed.
Bangladesh suffered a series of bombings in theaters in the beginning of December that killed at least 18. The government had already abrogated human rights during its crackdown on crime and it is likely that military force will continue to be the strategy of choice for improving security.
India began the year still in shock following a suicide attack on the parliament. The five militants killed several policemen and groups within Pakistan were blamed for the attack. India imposed sanctions against Pakistan and ratcheted up the pressure with massed troops at the border, particularly in the disputed region of Kashmir, and with tests of ballistic missiles capable of carrying a nuclear payload. Pakistan reciprocated with similar actions, and the tension grew, with a realistic threat of nuclear war between the two heavily fortified nations. (See the four-part series on Weapons Proliferation March 24, March 31 and April 14, particularly part III: Kashmir, April 7) Intense diplomatic efforts by the US and UK helped to ease the tension by the summer, and there were significant troop withdrawals beginning in October.
Militant attacks in Indian-administered Kashmir continue frequently. They involve both separatist groups and Islamic militants. The largest of these attacks was a raid on an Indian army camp in May that killed 30. India accuses Pakistan of sheltering and supporting these groups, charges Pakistan authorities strongly deny.
India has many other rebel groups operating in the vast country, predominantly minority ethnic groups fighting for independence or political gain. These include National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB) in Assam, National Socialist Council of Nagaland, Kuki National Front, National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT), and United National Liberation Front in Manipur. These low intensity conflicts do not represent a major threat to the country.
There are also a number of Maoist rebel groups, including the People?s War Group (PWG), primarily based in the east and south, whose actions tend to have higher casualties. PWG has turned increasingly to crime to help finance its activities. Janashakti, another Maoist group notorious for kidnapping and extortion, operated in Andhra Pradesh but is largely defunct.
The kidnapping of former minister Hannur Nagappa made headlines over the summer when it was discovered that the notorious bandit Veerappan was holding him. Veerappan began his career as an elephant poacher and smuggler and stands accused of hundreds of murders. He and his gang operate in the dense tropical forest on the border between Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. Nagappa was found dead, but the two state governments believe they have eliminated most of the bandit group and will be able to capture Veerappan, popularly viewed as a Robin Hood type figure, and end his long career.
Banditry and local separatist groups do not present a major threat to the Indian government. The deadliest conflicts in India are inter-communal rivalries. The worst this year took place in the state of Gujarat when Muslims set fire to a train carrying Hindus on pilgrimage. Hindu mobs retaliated by killing more than 800, mostly Muslims, in February and March. Similar acts of communal violence are likely to recur and raise significant security challenges as well as risks to human rights.
Nepal ended 2001 under a state of emergency that had been declared after a massive attack in November by Maoist rebels that left more than 100 people dead. Huge rebel attacks continued, killing 127 in February and more than 300 in April and repeated strikes led to more economic disruption/ The army, helped with international aid, launched an offensive and has continued fighting ever since. With little ease from the Maoist attacks, the state of emergency continued, elections were called off, and Kind Gyandendra assumed executive control.
Pakistan faced challenges in all directions this year, surrounded by ?axis of evil? Iran, Taliban/al Qaeda Afghanistan and nuclear India, with internal Islamic militants launching a number of violent attacks. General Musharraf rose to the challenge not only by allying himself with US interests (for little return) and cracking down on religious extremists, including banning the Lashkar-e-Toiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad militant groups, but he also tiptoed a couple of small steps towards democratic elections.
One of the interesting side effects of US policy in South Asia and the Middle East, particularly following the increased war rhetoric against Iraq, has been a commensurate increase in cyber-attacks in the region, many originating from groups in South Asia. (See ?Cyberterrorism in South Asia? May 26)
Pakistan suffered terrorist attacks against government and civilian interests, including Christian targets and foreign interests. Attacks included suicide, car and parcel bombs. One incident involved breaking in, tying up, gagging and shooting eight people at a Christian charity. The largest was a car bomb outside a hotel that killed 14, including 11 French engineers.
And we end this year?s Review on a positive note, looking at the developments toward peace in Sri Lanka. (See ?The Civil Conflict in Sri Lanka? March 3) The civil war between the Sri Lankan government and the rebel Tamil Tigers lasted 19 years and claimed 60,000 lives. Now, negotiations have been proceeding at full speed, following a rapid breakthrough when the too sides agreed to a federal system, and the Tamil?s abandoned their demand for a separate homeland. Negotiations now are proceeding on the topics of refugee returns and other details.
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