Newsletter: 03/03/02

1. Africa
2. Americas
3. Asia Pacific
4. Europe
5. Middle East
6. South Asia
7. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare
8. Finance
9. Human Rights
10. Law and Legal Issues
11. Narco-terrorism
12. Transportation
13. Weapons of Mass Destruction
14. Newly Published

FEATURE ARTICLE:
The Civil Conflict in Sri Lanka: Background and Prospects

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK

1. Africa

Angolans are adjusting to the death of UNITA leader Jonas Savimbi which is widely seen as providing an opportunity to bring peace to the war-torn country. With thousands of refugees and widespread hunger that are the result of the 30-year conflict, the Angolan government is seeking a cease-fire. These efforts have strong international backing, most recently from the US where Angolan President dos Santos was in talks with Presidents Bush (US), Chissano (Mozambique) and Mogae (Botswana). At this time, the rebels have not yet signaled a positive response.

Peace talks for the Democratic Republic of Congo on hold last week because of the withdrawal of rebel leader Bemba have been resumed.

The leaders of Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone completed meetings last week with an agreement to ensure security along their common borders.

Madagascar has been rocked by violence and huge demonstrations all week, as the opposition Presidential candidate Marc Ravalomanana puts together his cabinet and current President Ratsiraka continues the state of emergency.

Ugandan troops killed 80 rebels from the Lord's Resistance Army.

The crisis in Zimbabwe grows in the days leading to the Presidential elections. Three leading opposition figures have been accused of treason for allegedly attempting to assassinate President Mugabe. This ploy is the latest in a series of attempts by Mr. Mugabe to maintain his hold on power. International pressure from European Union financial sanctions, EU and US travel restrictions, and similar efforts were counterbalanced in a meeting of the Commonwealth countries that declined to take further action. Meanwhile, the food shortages in parts of Zimbabwe are reaching critical levels.

2. Americas

Colombian Senator Martha Catalina Daniels, a colleague and her driver, shot dead by rebel guerillas. Kidnapped presidential candidate Ingrid Betancourt and many others are still held by the rebels. Following the breakdown of the peace talks and renewed violence, President Pastrana has strong support to defeat the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). He has declared the six areas in the south that made up the former safe haven a war zone and placed them under military rule. Salvador Vargas, a rebel commander of the FARC, has been killed by army forces.

In the US, the Pentagon closed its new Office of Strategic Influence, following heavy criticism over its plans to undertake disinformation campaigns.

In order to continue aid, President Bush has waived Afghanistan from the drug blacklist and is discussing payment for the destruction of the forthcoming opium harvest.

A Gallup study (Financial Times, 27 February 2002) discovered that while 67% of Muslims felt that "the September 11 attacks were morally unjustifiable" that "most of those questioned reject the idea that Arabs, specifically Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda network, carried out the attacks. Significant numbers believe that Israel, or even the US itself, was responsible". And even more strongly, 77% "thought the military action was unjustified. In five of the countries, more condemned the military action than condemned the September 11 attacks."

The Baader-Meinhof Gang, a radical German movement active in the 1960s is remembered in an exhibition at New York City's Museum of Modern Art. "Gerhard Richter: Forty Years of Painting" includes a suite of 15 pictures featuring the gang members and their suicides in prison on October 18, 1977.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez continues to dismiss calls by military officials for his resignation and remains defiant in the face of an opposition march that drew over 20,000.

3. Asia Pacific

Cambodia has jailed 19 rebels, members of the Cambodian Freedom Fighters.

Fathur Al-Ghozi, and Indonesian suspected of al-Qaeda links, admitted planning a series of bombings in 2000 in the Philippines that killed 22.

4. Europe

In Bosnia-Herzegovina, a massive Nato operation was launched to find former President Radovan Karadizic, now wanted for war crimes. The raids have been unsuccessful.

Georgian officials have reached an agreement with the US to send military advisors, (as well as weapons and other equipment), and will train Georgian soldiers in counter-terrorism efforts. This agreement now has Russian support.

In Italy, holes dug to start a tunnel were discovered near the US embassy, providing further evidence of a bomb plot initially discovered when a group of Moroccans were found with large quantities of potassium ferrocyanide, a potential chemical weapon.

Four al-Qaeda-linked Tunisians were sentenced on criminal charges in Italy. These convictions represent the first al-Qaeda-linked cases in Europe since the September 11 terrorist attacks.

A small bomb exploded near the interior ministry in Rome. There were no injuries. The attack was linked to protests against the right-wing Berlusconi government.

Macedonian police shot and killed 7 suspected Albanian National Liberation Army (NLA) rebels.

A bomb in the Basque region of Spain injured Esther Cabezudo, a local politician, and her bodyguard. It is assumed to be the work of ETA, the Basque separatist organization. The US announced it will freeze the assets of 21 individuals linked with ETA.

Packages containing a caustic chemical disguised as a cosmetic were sent to Cherie Blair, (the UK Prime Minister's wife), a Scottish politician, and 14 others yet to be traced. The Scottish National Liberation Army claimed responsibility.

In the UK, a planned amnesty for Northern Ireland paramilitaries may be extended to cover soldiers and police officers, a move that would outrage those groups investigating security services' roles in a number of deaths.

Northern Ireland's Chief Constable, Sir Ronnie Flanagan, who has been criticized in relation to the Omagh bombing investigations, has announced his retirement. Irish police investigating the bombing have now arrested three suspects.

Slobodan Milosevic's trial for war crimes committed when he was President of Yugoslavia continues with testimony from additional prosecution witnesses, including some who are testifying secretly in closed session.

5. Middle East

A Gallup study (Financial Times, 27 February 2002) discovered that while 67% of Muslims felt that "the September 11 attacks were morally unjustifiable" that "most of those questioned reject the idea that Arabs, specifically Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda network, carried out the attacks. Significant numbers believe that Israel, or even the US itself, was responsible". And even more strongly, 77% "thought the military action was unjustified. In five of the countries, more condemned the military action than condemned the September 11 attacks."

Iraq is US President's Bush next target in the "war on terrorism", beginning with authorization of covert activities including funding opposition groups and radio broadcasts to undermine the current government. UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan joins other world leaders in warning the US against military action.

Israeli-Palestinian violence reached new heights this week with devastating attacks on both sides. Interest in a preliminary peace plan put forward by Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia has gained international traction, though there is concern from Syria and Lebanon and little support from Israel. After an appeal by European Union foreign policy chief Solana, Yasser Arafat has agreed to resume talks. The premise of the plan is simple: Israel leaves the West Bank, Gaza Strip and Syrian Golan Heights and recognizes a Palestinian state, while the Arab world would recognize and have full diplomatic relationships with Israel. However meaningful details have not been developed and it faces huge hurdles, not least of which is the never-ending violence, including assaults on refugee camps, pregnant women, and other civilians.

In Jordan, a bomb exploded in a car belonging to the wife of a government anti-terrorism unit official, killing two passers-by.

US military advisors are preparing for a trip to Yemen to help train troops in counter-terrorism efforts and in capturing suspected al-Qaeda members.

6. South Asia

Afghan interim leader Hamid Karzai continued his efforts to attract international aid with visits to Iran and India. The US is in discussions with other countries about stopping the resurgent opium trade, in particular, with the potential purchase of the forthcoming crop. Heavy assaults by US troops on Taliban and al-Qaeda troops have been taking place.

Extraordinary violence has been seen in the western Gujarat state of India where sectarian violence has now claimed over 500 lives. The violence began when Muslims fire-bombed a train filled with Hindu extremists who were planning to build a Hindu temple on the site of a mosque. Violence has grown with a series of riots and revenge attacks, including the electrocution of an entire village. Indian troops continue to attempt to stop the violence.

India continues to refuse talks with Pakistan until it is satisfied that Islamic militants will stop attacking Indian targets.

Nepalese security forces killed 76 Maoist rebels.

Investigations in Pakistan continue in the Pearl kidnapping and murder case. The US has offered a $5 million reward for information.

The Pakistani government has arrested additional militants. Gunmen unsuccessfully attempted to free some of these prisoners by ambushing a police bus.

Sri Lankan President Chandrika Kumaratungs continues to oppose lifting the ban on Tamil rebels and has demanded a review of the permanent ceasefire agreement. However, the success so far of the peace initiatives has led the War Risk Committee to remove a war-risk surcharge in shipping insurance that should help the Sri Lankan economy.

7. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare

Two recent conferences illustrate the difficulties in securing systems, showing that systems are insecure and getting less secure. The RSA conference and GSM world talked about the problems facing security managers, emerging technology, and proposals to deal with current and emerging risks. US government officials continue to suggest plans to to invite research in technical wizardry ranging from toxin detection to terrorist prediction systems.

John Sankus, Jr. has pleaded guilty to felony conspiracy in an international software piracy scheme, DrinkorDie, that was discovered after a 15-month undercover investigation by the U.S. Customers Service.

8. Finance

Rome has agreed with other European Community members to proceed on development of new rules that allow EU judges to freeze the assets of suspected criminals across all member countries.

US Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill has announced freezing the assets of 21 individuals linked with ETA, the Basque separatist organization active in Spain.

The February 28 deadline for compliance with money laundering rules by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has arrived, and more than 20 tax havens are now at risk of an international blacklist and economic sanctions for failing to comply with the reforms.

9. Human Rights

The European Union has adopted a common fingerprint database to be used to stop illegal immigration.

Criticism of the handling of detainees in the US naval base at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, continues to come from all directions, including the mothers and friends of detainees and the Organization of American State's Inter-American Commission on Human Rights.

The most notable protests have come from the detainees themselves. They are conducting a hunger strike to protest their conditions, including allowing them religious observance. The protest started when one of the prisoners was told to remove his turban. After US authorities conceded this, some of the prisoners stopped the hunger strike, but about a quarter of the prisoners have continued to refuse food.

Slobodan Milosevic's trial for war crimes committed when he was President of Yugoslavia continues. US government officials have suggested this tribunal and that active in the Rwandan genocide should be wrapped up as they are too expensive and wide-ranging.

10. Law and Legal Issues

Cambodia has jailed 19 rebels, members of the Cambodian Freedom Fighters. The sentences, ranging from 5 years to life, were for three minor explosions that caused no injuries. The severity of the sentences and the conditions under which the trial was held was criticized by international human rights groups.

Fathur Al-Ghozi, and Indonesian suspected of al-Qaeda links, admitted planning a series of five nearly simultaneous bombings in 2000 in the Philippines that killed 22.

In Israel, Azmi Bishara, an Arab member of the Israel Knesset, goes on trial for inciting Palestinian and Arab violence against Israelis. He is the first member of the Knesset to be put on trial for political statements.

The US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) has charged Abdel Rahman Omar Tawfiq Alfauru with making the false identification ring used by one of the suspected September 11 hijackers.

John Sankus, Jr. has pleaded guilty to felony conspiracy in an international software piracy scheme, DrinkorDie, that was dsicovered after a 15-month undercover investigation by the U.S. Customers Service.

11. Narco-terrorism

Under the Taliban, Afghanistan produced over 70% of the world crop of heroin poppies. To continue aid to Afghanistan, the US has waived its drug blacklist and is in discussions with other countries to pay for the destruction of the forthcoming opium harvest.

12. Transportation

Aviation

The US Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) issued their report of airline security reviews conducted a year ago, raising issues with safety and maintenance records, particularly at America West, American Airlines, and TWA. Another report came to light by a whistleblower, Bogdan Dzakovic, an FAA special agent who described his experience with getting guns and knives past airport screeners in 1997-8 and the lack of attention paid to correcting these lapses. His charges are being investigated by the Department of Transportation.

The American International Group has asked the FAA to stop providing war and terrorism insurance that had been provided by the government after the September 11 attacks when commercial insurance companies refused coverage.

US Secretary of Transportation Norman Mineta announced his support for stun guns in airline cockpits.

Maritime

Anti-terrorism measures are under discussion by the International Maritime Organization. The US pressed for identifying documents, background screening, and sharing of information, but there was no international backing for any of these proposals.

Secretary Mineta announced a Port Security Grants Program that would finance security enhancements of two types: "1. Security assessments and mitigation strategies, based on proposed port or terminal security assessmentat that ascertain vulnerabilities and identify mitigation strategies, and 2. ENhanced Facility and Operational Security, including but not limited to facility access control, physical security, cargo security and passenger security".

13. Weapons of Mass Destruction

United National Secretary General Kofi Annan continues talks with Iraq on returning UN weapons inspectors to Iraq.

The US and Russia are close to agreeing new terms on a non-proliferation pact to regulate the price and production of uranium.

US and Vietnamese scientists are attending a conference to exchange information on the effects of Agent Orange, a chemical weapon used as a herbicide in the Vietnamese war.

US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) investigators have continued their appeal for help from scientists to help identify the source of the anthrax spores used in the anthrax letters last year.

14. Newly Published

Arterburn, Stephen and David Stoop. 130 Questions Children Ask About War and Terrorists: COmforting Your Child in Uncertain Times. Tyndale.

Cradock, Percy. Know Your Enemy: How the Joint Intelligence Committee Saw the World. John Murray.

Erickson, Victoria Lee and Michelle Lim Jones. Surviving Terror: Hope and Justice in a World of Violence. Brazos.

Hennessy, Peter. The Secret State: Whitehall and the Cold War. Penguin.

Kaplan, Robert D. Warrior Politics: Why Leadership Demands a Pagan Ethos. Random House.

Kotkin, Stephen. Armageddon Averted: The Soviet Collapse 1970 - 2000. Oxford University Press.

Nye, Joseph P. The Paradox of American Power: Why the World's Superpower Can't Go It Alone. Oxford University Press

FEATURE ARTICLE:

The Civil Conflict in Sri Lanka: Background and Prospects
By John D. Rogers

The origin of the civil war that has engulfed Sri Lanka for the past twenty years lies in the nation's failure to build an all-inclusive, national identity after it attained independence from the British in 1948. The conflict was fueled first by disputes over the country's official language, then by rising discrimination against the Tamils, and finally by the Tamil demand for an independent nation in the northeast of the island.

In 1956, a coalition government led by S.W.R.D. Bandaranaike, head of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), came to power with the commitment to implement a policy of replacing English with Sinhala, the tongue of the majority Sinhalese, as the country's official language. This demand had originally been directed against the nation's English-speaking elites, but was resisted by the island's minority Tamil population, which saw the change in language policy as a threat to the economic and social position of their community. Tensions rose in the face of civil disobedience campaigns carried out by Tamils, and in 1958, rioting broke out between the two groups.

After 1956, both major national political parties, the SLFP and the United National Party (UNP), expounded the language of Sinhalese identity, and Sinhala speakers were favored for government employment. The SLFP-led government that ruled from 1970 to 1977 was particularly insensitive to Tamil opinion, bringing in a new constitution in 1972 that made Sinhala the only official language and gave Buddhism, the religion of most Sinhalese, the foremost place among the island's religions. But perhaps the most insensitive policy of all involved changes in the government controlled university admissions system, which sharply curtailed the number of students from Jaffna, the educationally advanced Tamil district in the far north. At this point, educated Tamil youth were not only at a disadvantage in obtaining government employment; they now felt they were being excluded from lucrative professions such as medicine, engineering, and law.

In the 1970s, frustrated by the failure of Tamil politicians to protect their interests, a small number of young Tamils in the northeast, where Tamils are concentrated, resorted to violence. Their first targets were Tamils whom they regarded as collaborators with the government. However, by the decade's end, they had carried out a small stream of attacks on government buildings and the security forces. This militancy was accompanied by a hardening of mainstream Tamil opinion. In 1976, the main Tamil political party of the time called for an independent Tamil nation in the northeast. From this point on, the focus of Tamil demands shifted from language rights to the attainment of self-government for what they declared was their northeastern homeland.

The UNP government that took power in 1977 offered limited concessions, but both the activities of Tamil militants and opposition from Sinhalese extremists made political progress difficult. The turning point of the Sinhalese-Tamil political struggle came in 1983, when the deaths of 13 soldiers at the hands of Tamil militants were followed by widespread attacks against Tamil people and property in the predominantly Sinhalese parts of the country. Estimates vary, but from 300 to 3,000 Tamils died, and many businesses and households were looted or burned. What was remarkable about these events was not only the unprecedented scale of the violence, but also the failure of security forces to suppress it.

The 1983 violence led to a massive rise in Tamil support for the militants and soon thereafter to civil war. By mid-1984, the government had lost control of much of the northeast, and by 1987 the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) had emerged as the strongest militant Tamil group. At this time, the Sri Lankan armed forces attempted to regain control of Jaffna but were unable to do so. In July of that year, the government, under increasing pressure from India, which has a large Tamil population that sympathized with the Sri Lankan Tamils, concluded the Indo-Lanka accord. This agreement, made between Sri Lanka and India, called for the devolution of power to the island's provinces and explicitly recognized Sri Lanka as a multiethnic nation. To increase its credibility, the agreement called for the stationing of an Indian peacekeeping force in the northeast. However, the LTTE rejected this accord as inadequate, and soon came into conflict with the Indian peacekeepers, resulting in what has sometimes been called "India's Vietnam". After a change of government, the Indians withdrew their forces in 1990, leaving the LTTE to fill the resulting power vacuum in the northeast.

Negotiations were conducted between the government and the LTTE, but peace did not last long. In June 1990, the LTTE attacked police stations in the northeast, and war resumed along much the same lines as in the 1984-1987 period. In 1994, the UNP, which had been in power since 1977, was defeated, and there was another cease-fire and more negotiations, but again the peaceful interlude lasted only a few months, and the LTTE resumed its armed struggle. The northeast once again became the site of intense fighting, while the LTTE targeted the majority Sinhalese areas with devastatingly destructive bombs, which were often aimed at civilian targets such as buses, trains, the Central Bank, and an important Buddhist temple.

The SLFP-led government that came to power in 1994 had promised peace, but entire country became more militarized than ever. Conditions were especially difficult in the northeast, where the civilian population was caught up in the struggle between the LTTE and the government forces. The LTTE is a highly disciplined and ruthless organization that is remarkable for its use of suicide bombers, the willingness of its fighters to swallow cyanide capsules to avoid capture, and its recruitment of large numbers of women and children fighters. It presents a formidable opponent for security forces, whose chances of gaining support from the civilian population of the northeast have been hindered by its sometimes carrying out atrocities against the civilian population there.

A UNP-led government came to power in late 2001. Like the SLFP-led government of 1994, it was elected on a promise to bring peace to the island. Within the past month, the temporary cease-fire that was put into effect following the election has now been formalized, and peace talks between the government and the LTTE are expected to begin soon. The LTTE appears to have given up its demand for total independence, and the main issue for the negotiations will be the degree of autonomy for the northeast. One challenge for the talks will be whether or not the LTTE, an organization that has never been committed to democracy, will be willing to put its power on the line in elections. Other obstacles include Tamil distrust generated by many decades of discrimination, and Sinhalese suspicion that the LTTE is only using the peace talks to cover to regroup militarily.

Those who remember the fate of the peaceful interludes of 1990 and 1995 are pessimistic about the current calm. Nonetheless, the current global climate against terrorism of all sorts has undercut the LTTE's base for support, and some observers feel that they are finally willing to make a deal. The upcoming negotiations may be Sri Lanka's best chance for peace since the 1983 riots pushed the nation into its prolonged civil war.

John D. Rogers is Lecturer in History at Tufts University, and has written extensively on Sri Lankan history and politics.