Newsletter: 03/24/02

1. Africa
2. Americas
3. Asia Pacific
4. Europe
5. Middle East
6. South Asia
7. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare
8. Finance
9. Human Rights
10. Law and Legal Issues
11. Narco-terrorism
12. Transportation
13. Weapons of Mass Destruction
14. Newly Published

FEATURE ARTICLE:
Weapons Proliferation I: The Background

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK

1. Africa

Following the Angolan government's unilateral truce declaration last week, the UNITA Chief of Staff, General Geraldo Abreu Kamorteiro has agreed to follow the Lusaka agreement of 1994 that calls for rebel disarmament and government participation. Some doubts have been heard, mostly from UNITA representatives who are concerned over a number of recent arrests and whether the resulting discussions are free and fair, but these concerns are not considered serious threats to the peace process.

In Burundi, sporadic violence between the National Liberation Front and the army continues, most recently in a night raid that killed two.

Fighting in the Democratic Republic of Congo is interfering with peace talks. Troops in the neighboring countries of Angola, Namibia, Rwanda, Uganda, and Zimbabwe, supporting either the government or the rebels, are meeting to help find political solutions to the ongoing violence. The United Nations Security Council has demanded the immediate withdrawal of rebels who took over a southeast port town last week.

The federal government of Nigeria has declared that implementation of Sharia law (strict Islamic law, involving penalties such as flogging, amputation, and - as in a recent case that was overturned on appeal - death by stoning for adultery) is unconstitutional.

Somalia is under the eye of the US for alleged links with al Qaeda. US General Franks stated that intelligence suggested al Qaeda cells were active and that Somalia could be a target in the "war against terrorism". Recent aerial reconnaissance indicates this could be a serious possibility.

Violence between Sudan and Uganda continues, with violence by government soldiers and rebels on both sides of the border. A class action suit in New York has begun, alleging the Sudanese government had undertaken violent removals from villages to clear them for oil drilling.

With the final report of the Commonwealth election observers in, the governments of South Africa and Nigeria joined others to declare that the elections in Zimbabwe were seriously flawed and to suspend Zimbabwe from the Commonwealth for one year. Presidents Thabo Mbeki of South Africa and Olusegun Obsanjo of Nigeria have offered their assistance to Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe to try to form a government of national unity and to deal with the urgency of the economic situation and imminent starvation. Despite these efforts, Mugabe remains defiant and the level of violence in the country rises, including the murders of white farmers, arrests of opposition political leaders, and widespread intimidation that is limiting possible public protests.

2. Americas

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In Brazil, the 2-day occupation of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso's farm by the Landless Movement (MST), demanding land reform, has ended after negotiations with the government.

The Canadian oil company, Talisman Energy, is the subject of a class action suit brought by Sudanese residents whose villages were forcibly cleared to make way for oil drilling. The suit is being heard in New York under the Alien Tort Claims Act and is receiving widespread attention from human rights groups.

Fighting in Colombia between the army and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) continues, with the added involvement of violence from drug traffickers who murdered the Archbishop of Cali. FARC's involvement with the drug trade has led to an indictment in the US and its continued conscription as a terrorist organization.

Mexico and the US have resumed talks on border security, including the use of new technology to help speed border crossings.

A car bomb outside the US embassy in Peru that killed nine preceded US President Bush's visit to that country, in which he joined Peruvian President Alejandro Toledo to vow a continued fight against terrorism, and the drug trafficking that finances it. No group took responsibility for the car bomb, but fears that the Shining Path (Sendero Luminoso, SL) may be regrouping were widely expressed.

The US continues to expand its "war against terrorism" in many directions. This week, President Bush participated in the Monterrey meetings that led to a declaration to help eliminate poverty as one of the causes of terrorism. It also saw Vice President Cheney's visit to the Middle East leading to an unexpected conclusion: rather than meeting support for military action against Iraq, the message was to end the increased violence between Israel and the Palestinians before anything else could be contemplated. General Zinni was dispatched to renew efforts to bring about a cease-fire as a required precursor to any peace talks.

Human rights and civil rights issues surrounding US actions in the war in Afghanistan, treatment of the prisoners in Guantanamo Bay, and treatment of detainees in the US continue. Release of the system under which military tribunals will be conducted has led to renewed criticism and much discussion, particularly over treatment of citizens of other countries and the rights of appeal.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has warned against a possible oil worker strike, suggesting there would be a military response to any such protests.

3. Asia Pacific

China, losing patience with the US over nuclear policy and Taiwan, has signaled deteriorating relations between the two powers. China continues to support the "war against terrorism", using this to justify for widespread arrests in its Muslim population in the west, that China has linked to al Qaeda.

Relations between North Korea and South Korea have also deteriorated following the US Nuclear Posture Review that names North Korea as a possible nuclear target, large joint military exercises between South Korea and the US, and the promised sale of an anti-aircraft system to the South.

South Korea has been identified by Predictive Systems Inc of New York as the largest source of computer attacks outside the US.

Joint military exercises with the US continue in the Philippines. Three Indonesians were arrested in Manila for possession of explosives.

4. Europe

The European Union economic summit ended on a positive note with plans to continue liberalization of energy markets, more flexible labor schemes, and other measures to encourage a competitive and prosperous community

Terrorist threats in Bosnia led to the indefinite closure of the US embassy.

US troops have arrived in Georgia and begun training activities. It is possible that Chechen rebel bases allegedly operating in Georgia will be targeted.

Italy has brought in emergency measures to deal with the arrival of a thousand asylum seekers, mainly Kurds.

Another crisis faced the Italian government with the assassination of a government labor advisor, Marco Biagi, at the hands of the Red Brigades. At the end of the week, hundreds of thousands gathered in the Circus Maximus to protest Prime Minister Berlusconi's labor plans but also to protest the terrorist act.

In Kyrgyzstan, opposition riots led to four deaths.

Macedonian officials continue to insist that the deaths of four menn were related to a terrorist plot, but have refused to provide evidence for this, despite continued requests from US authorities.

The shooting of Juan Priede, a town councilor in northern Spain, has been blamed on ETA.

In the UK, public opposition and a Labor rebellion have combined to protest Prime Minister Tony Blair's support for military action against Iraq and an expanded military role in Afghanistan.
In Northern Ireland, a break-in in the Special Branches office of Belfast's main police headquarters led to concern over the content of missing documents and over the extreme security lapse that could have allowed such a break-in, suggesting that insiders were probably involved.

5. Middle East

The US is putting pressure on the Israeli government and the Palestinian Authority to reach a cease-fire in the unending stream of escalating violence that has subsumed any other cause in the region. Israel has said it is willing to withdraw troops and allow Yassir Arafat to attend the Arab summit. But ongoing suicide attacks and other violence continue to derail discussions over any potential truce.

In Algeria violence from Islamic militants, Berber protesters, and military police continues. There were a bombing and shooting incidents last week.

Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has rejected discussions with the US. The US has been concerned about Iran's possession of weapons of mass destruction and included Iran on its list of potential targets in the Nuclear Posture Review.

Iraq, identified as a leading contender for US military action, was also listed in the Nuclear Posture Review. Despite objections from US allies and interested countries, investigation of military action continues with activity by US military and intelligence agencies. The US says it will provide evidence of links between Iraq and al Qaeda.

Iraq has responded to these attacks by calling on support for its allies, enlisting the United NationsSecurity Council to investigate US activities, and identifying depleted uranium weapons used against Iraq as the source of widespread negative health and environmental effects.

6. South Asia

While US General Tommy Franks claims that Operation Anaconda in Afghanistan was a success, US President Bush and administration officials also stress that the operations will continue and that there is no knowledge of where top al Qaeda and Taliban militants are located. Joining the US forces are an additional 1,700 British troops, joining the guerilla war in the mountains against remaining forces.

While military action continues in Afghanistan, the start of a new school year was welcomed all around as a sign that elsewhere, the rebuilding of the country was beginning. It is likely that Turkey will lead continued peacekeeping efforts.

In Burma (Myanmar) The rebel Karen National Union attacked the Burmese army, killing 30.

A controversial anti-terrorism bill, the Prevention of Terrorism Ordinance (POTO) passed the lower house but faces a difficult vote in the upper house, which is not controlled by the ruling government. The controversy arises over the broad language of the bill, which could be used to target minority communities.

In Kashmir, Islamic militants threw grenades at a bus stop and in a market that wounded 52.

Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba of Nepal is holding talks with India, hoping for help in their fight against Maoist rebels.

Pakistan continued its fight against terrorist attacks, looking for the attackers who killed five in a church grenade attack, beginning expulsion of foreign religious students, taking action against police officers suspected of ties to Islamic militants, and charging suspects in the kidnapping and murder of Daniel Pearl.

Following the church grenade attack, the US provided additional weapons to Pakistan to help it seal its border and has ordered all non-essential diplomatic staff to leave the country.

7. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare

The FBI is evaluating whether to dismantle the National Infrastructure Protection Center, responsible for cyber-security, in order to focus only on criminal complaints. This proposal has been criticized as discouraging collaboration between government and industry in investigating threats against private networks, including financial, telecommunications and utility networks.

South Korea has been identified through analysis done by Predictive Systems Inc of New York as the largest source of computer attacks outside the US. Some of these attacks originate there, but many use poorly protected and out-of-date equipment as a launching pad for other attacks. (See
http://www.predictive.com/company/press_room/releases/ReleaseDetail.cfm?PR_ID=406)

8. Finance

Raids in the US have been conducted by FBI and Treasury agents against homes and businesses alleged to have ties to terrorist networks. In particular, they are attempting to trace the flow of offshore funds.

Actions against money laundering are accelerating in response not only to terrorist funding but also in the misuse of funds revealed by the Enron scandal. Look for an excellent article by Jonathan M. Winer "How to Clean Up Dirty Money" published in the Financial Times and available online at http://www.ft.com/moneylaunderer

9. Human Rights

Leaders from nearly 60 countries have adopted the "Monterrey Consensus" pledging to end poverty through increased international aid, reduced debt, and support for greater international trade.

China alleges that its Muslim population in the west has linked to al Qaeda, using that to justify widespread arrests and restrictions on religious practices. Amnesty International and the United Nations have expressed concern over respecting the rights of this minority.

The forcible removal and wholesale destruction of villages in the Sudan to make way for oil drilling is the subject of a class action suit against Talisman Energy, a Canadian oil company. The suit is being heard in New York under the Alien Tort Claims Act and is receiving widespread attention from human rights groups.

Human rights issues surrounding US actions in the war in Afghanistan, treatment of the prisoners in Guantanamo Bay, and treatment of detainees in the US continue. Release of the system under which military tribunals will be conducted has led to renewed criticism and much discussion, particularly over treatment of citizens of other countries and the rights of appeal.

Citing an unacceptable level of coercion, the United Nations has pulled out of a program to repatriate refugees from Cambodia to their homes in Vietnam.

10. Law and Legal Issues

John Walker Lindh's defense team has filed a written motion asking potentially incriminating statements be disallowed due to the conditions under which he was held in captivity. The motion contends that no lawyers were available to him and that he was detained, blindfolded, in a metal container, leading him to make these statements in order to obtain better treatment.

Sudanese residents have begun a class action suit against the Canadian Talisman Energy oil company, alleging that the company worked with the Sudanese government, using the army to forcibly clear villages to make way for oil drilling. The suit is being heard in New York under the Alien Tort Claims Act and is receiving widespread attention from human rights groups.

11. Narco-terrorism

The financing of terrorism through the drug trade was brought in sharp relief again by renewed violence in Colombia and Peru. In Colombia, the Archbishop of Cali was murdered by drug traders and in Peru a car bomb outside the US Embassy led to fears of a resurgent Shining Path movement.

12. Transportation

Aviation

Two multi-million -pound robberies at Heathrow only five weeks apart has put the spotlight on security at Heathrow airport, London.

The US Federal Aviation Authority (FAA) will soon release new safety guidelines for aircraft, focusing on lessons learned in recent accidents.

13. Weapons of Mass Destruction

In southern Afghanistan, the US claims to have discovered an unfinished laboratory they claim was to be used for development of biological weapons by al Qaeda. In a related development, alleged September 11 hijacker Ibrahim Al Hazanwi's treatment for a skin lesion is being investigated for possible anthrax exposure.

14. Newly Published

Barnett, Michael. Eyewitness to a Genocide: The United Nations and Rwanda. Cornell University Press.

Cradock, Percy. Know Your Enemy: How the Joint Intelligence Committee Saw the World. John Murray

Hoge, James F and Gideon Rose, editors. How Did This Happen? Terrorism and the New War. Public Affairs.

Jack, Ian, editor. What We Think of America. Granta.

Wald, Ed. Narcocorrido. Harper Collins.

FEATURE ARTICLE:

Weapons Proliferation I: The Background

It is the vocabulary of current international affairs: axis of evil... global terrorist networks... nuclear posture review... rogue states... seven minutes to midnight... state-sponsored terrorism... weapons of mass destruction...

These frightening concepts connote the international weapons proliferation that, after a decade of seeming quiescence, has become an unparalleled global threat.

This article is the first in a four-part series. This week, we review the modern history of weapons proliferation. Next, we will discuss the countries that have been targeted by recent US policy statements, followed by a discussion of the conflict between India and Pakistan over Kashmir. We will round up the series with a review of the political and technological means to stem weapons proliferation.

There are enough conventional weapons circulating around the globe to destroy life on earth many times over. The addition of weapons of mass destruction, including biological, chemical and nuclear materials, moves the threat beyond comprehension. And these weapons are not just in the hands of governments, but in the hands of individuals as well.

It is no wonder that the "Doomsday Clock" of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (http://www.bullatomsci.org/clock.html) was set this year at 7 minutes to midnight. This clock was first published in 1947 to symbolize the state of international security: the closer the time to midnight, the more tenuous the state of affairs.. For many years, the threat was primarily determined by relations between the United States and the Soviet Union. The breakup of the Soviet Union caused world-wide threats to broaden: first to the former Soviet states, and then, in 1998, nuclear tests in India and Pakistan. This year a new element was added to the calculations of imminent danger.

Announcing these changes, the Bulletin says:
"Little progress is made on global nuclear disarmament. The United States rejects a series of arms control treaties and announces it will withdraw from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty. Terrorists seek to acquire and use nuclear and biological weapons."

This threat seems unreal to many in the Western world. The days of rehearsing a nuclear assault by hiding under a school desk are long gone. A two-power world had amassed more than 70,000 nuclear warheads and bombs, then reduced this arsenal to under 13,000.

The US, as the remaining "super-power", seemed unassailable. US President Bush declared the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty outmoded and announced it would be abandoned. In its place, the idea of a unilateral US missile defense program was resurrected. Continued US participation in weapons reduction and monitoring programs was by no means certain.

These moves created alarm throughout the world. The ABM treaty of 1972 was a landmark in stabilizing relations between the Soviet Union and the US, outlining the terms under which weapons were to be retained, tested, and reduced. With this treaty abolished and no replacement in sight, international concern grew over the possibility of a new arms race, one that could reach far beyond just two countries. These concerns were ignored by the US administration - for a time.

The attacks of September 11 forcibly brought America face-to-face with a world that is fully armed. Individuals, groups, and states are ready to use any weapon, conventional or otherwise, against the

US or any other interests across the globe. Concern over how to deal with a new kind of threat became real and immediate.

Terrorist groups, particularly those of a millenarian persuasion, have long been interested in weapons of mass destruction. The best known efforts were those by Aum Shrinriko, which experimented with biological weapons and launched a successful chemical attack using Sarin gas in the Tokyo subway system. Recent US intelligence reports describe similar efforts by al Qaeda. Even earlier, testimony in the embassy bombing trials suggested that they had shopped for uranium from South Africa.

Efforts to develop weapons of mass destruction and new supply channels took time to develop. Immediately following the dissolution of the Soviet Union there was a dramatic decrease in the volume of arms sales. This was partly due to economic and political troubles in the separate states and, largely to the end of proxy wars between the Soviet Union and the US. (An example of this type of government-sponsored weapons trafficking was discussed in our feature on Angola on March 10, 2002.)

The countries that had depended on the two "super-powers" for arms supplies rapidly found new sources to meet their undiminished demands. Four potential routes for weapons acquisitions have emerged.

First, small countries began teaming up to share weapons technology and expertise to extend the range of homegrown products. For example, Pakistan and North Korea have collaborated on nuclear weapons development.

Second, arms are widely available in the global marketplace. China, Russia, and North Korea sell arms openly, even to regimes proscribed by others in the international community. In addition, large quantities of European and American weapons find their way into public markets as the result of lax export controls. Recently, there was considerable controversy over an arms show in Iran. The show featured quantities of arms that were forbidden for export from their countries of origin, but that nonetheless ended up on the show floor, after navigating a web of forwarding exports and resale.

Third, the black market is thriving. The recent shipment of smuggled arms destined for the Palestinian Authority is not an isolated incident; it is more unusual in being discovered before reaching its destination. The potential threat from disenfranchised nuclear scientists and others from the former Soviet Union, may be even greater. They are suspected of providing nuclear expertise and materials to a broad range of customers. For example, in December 2001, there were reports of Russians, belonging to a crime gang, arrested for attempting to sell uranium.

The resale, legal or otherwise, of arms that are outmoded or surplus also continues to be significant. Large stocks of these weapons continue to circulate, although a number of arms destruction efforts (such as in Sierra Leone) have contributed to an overall reduction in their numbers.

Fourth, dual-use technology is pervasive and its multiple uses tempting. Re-directing legitimate technology to other uses is easy to do, yet difficult to discover. Nuclear power can provide a source for nuclear weapons; pharmaceutical development of vaccines a source for biological weapons; fertilizer factories a source of chemical weapons and explosives. Current compliance mechanisms to investigate these abuses are limited in scope and effectiveness.

The world is divided into camps of nuclear and non-nuclear powers, those who renounce weapons of mass destruction, those willing to control their use, and those who are actively seeking their use. This is our topic for next week's feature article.