Newsletter: 03/31/02

1. Africa
2. Americas
3. Asia Pacific
4. Europe
5. Middle East
6. South Asia
7. Finance
8. Human Rights
9. Law and Legal Issues
10. Narco-terrorism
11. Transportation
12. Weapons of Mass Destruction
13. Recently Published

FEATURE ARTICLE:
Weapons Proliferation II: Capacity fo Destruction

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK

1. Africa

The New Partnership for African Development, a plan initiated by Nigerian President Obasanjo and South African President Mbeki, has reached consensus among the leaders of 21 African nations regarding economic and political reforms that it hopes will lead to investment and predictable development.

In Angola, UNITA's secretary general, General Paulo Lukamaba (General Gato) has established his leadership of the rebel group and with the Angolan government has taken the initial steps towards a formal cease-fire. With peace in sight, the use of oil assets by the Angolan government has come under scrutiny, most recently in an investigative report by Global Witness` that alleges a variety of financial abuses.

Rebels from the Rally for Congolese Democracy (RCD) have withdrawn from the town in south-eastern Democratic Republic of Congo they had taken over two weeks earlier. This withdrawal will help encourage continued peace talks that have been taking place in South Africa, which have also been challenged by a grenade attack on a church in Goma that killed two.

Violent ethnic clashes in Ghana have left dead the King of the Dagomba tribe and at least 25 others. A curfew has been imposed.

In Madagascar, the largely peaceful political dispute saw violence that left two dead. The clash was between supporters of Marc Ravalomanana, (the opposition candidate and self-declared President), against residual government forces that attempted - unsuccessfully - to retake the parliament.

Senegalese rebels belonging to the Movement of Democratic Forces of Casamance (MFDC) raided a coastal town, killing five.

In Sierra Leone, the rebel leader of the Revolutionary United Front, Foday Sankoh, was refused permission to run for President in the May 14 elections.

The government of Uganda claims it has captured four rebel bases of the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA). The bases were inside Sudan and the military action was carried out with agreement by the Sudanese government. Freedom of people kidnapped by the LRA (including up to 12,000 children) has not yet been accomplished.

Political violence continues in Zimbabwe following the tumult over the recent elections. Efforts by the international community, including neighboring African nations and the Commonwealth, have as yet had no impact on the government.

2. Americas

In Brazil, the Landless Workers Movement (MST) peacefully occupied the President's family farm and after negotiations agreed to leave. Instead of letting them go, 16 of the protesters were arrested, a government tactic that proved unpopular and controversial. In retaliation, the MST have invaded another farm, owned by a business associate of the President and also not used for agriculture.

Colombia continues to struggle with narcotics and terrorism. The links between the IRA and Colombian militants are being investigated not only in Colombia but also by the US House of Representatives in a hearing called "The IRA in Colombia - the Global Links of International Terrorism".

The US Department of State has designated three more Foreign Terrorist Organizations: Asbat al-Ansar, al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade and the Salafist Group for Call and Combat. It also released a travel warning regarding possible threats in Italy during the Easter holiday season.

The US Congress has begun legal means to order Homeland Security chief Tom Ridge to testify regarding the proposed budget, intensifying the tussle between the White House and Congress. The General Accounting Office, Congress' investigation branch, has also issued a series of recommendations regarding updating Defense procurement methods.

The US is considering withdrawal from the treaty that created the International Criminal Court as one of several possible options to indicate that it will not be bound by it. The treaty is expected to have the necessary signatures and take effect in July.

The Superior Court in New Jersey has ruled that it is illegal to keep secret the identities of the people in custody on immigration violations following the September 11 attacks.

3. Asia Pacific

In China, mass labor protests have been put down and their leaders arrested, prompting criticism from the international Confederation of Free Trade Unions. Chinese authorities are also cracking down on North Korean refugees by sending them home. This crackdown follows the forcible entry by refugees in the Spanish Embassy in Beijing earlier this month.

In a move that may end the 13-year old rebellion, Papau New Guinea has voted for the autonomy of Bougainville, beginning with the election of its own government, later leading to a vote on independence.

North and South Korea are in talks to cover all aspects of security and improved relations prior to this summer's World Cup.

After the United Nations refugee agency withdrew from an agreement to repatriate Vietnamese refugees, the US has said it is prepared to give asylum to them, eliminating the need to return them from Cambodia to Vietnam, if the Cambodian government grants permission for the move.

4. Europe

Italy continues to battle the problems of illegal immigration, trade unions, and terrorism. Following the arrival of a thousand unexpected immigrants, the government decreed it had the power to destroy any ship illegally transporting refugees. Tapping into anti-immigrant feeling, the government continues to show its support from the right, and continues to have difficulty negotiating the minefield of protest and murder that have accompanied their attempts to change labor laws.

Threats of terrorism in Italy were also mooted by the US Department of State, who issued a warning that terrorism from extremist organizations posed threats to US citizens over the Easter holidays. Meanwhile, security concerns in Afghanistan continue to prevent the return of Afghan King Zahir Shah, who remains in Rome.

The Serbian government has decided to ignore the ruling of its high court that war crime extradition is illegal in favor of complying with a United Nations request and an ultimatum from the US congress to cooperate with the UN or lose aid dollars. It seems likely that Serbia will begin rounding up suspects in a few days.

Spanish police have arrested ten people linked to the Basque separatist group ETA.

Ukraine faces political violence immediately prior to its parliamentary elections, raising concerns over the outcome of the elections.

UK Prime Minister Tony Blair is under attack from British opinion and his own Labour MPs regarding his support for proposed military action against Iraq. Like other issues, this has been put on the back burner while the violence between Israel and the Palestinians rages.

In Northern Ireland, discussions are under way regarding another round of Irish Republican Army (IRA) decommissioning. This is a welcome sign of progress, and comes with other good news on the peace process. For fourth anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement, a review of progress was issued by the British and Irish governments, showing progress on all fronts, including policing reforms, community development and human rights. The proposed amnesty for paramilitary prisoners continues to be controversial. The IRA reaffirmed its commitment to the peace process, still affirming its commitment to a united Ireland.

William Courtney, a leading member of the Ulster Defence Association, has been arrested and is being questioned regarding the 1989 murder of Pat Finucane.

The break-in in the special branches office at Belfast's police headquarters has been linked to the IRA and six people have been arrested. Allegations of an insider connection continue, but none of the arrested were members of the security forces.

5. Middle East

The week began with the Arab League meeting and hopes that the Saudi peace proposal would help bring some momentum to the Israel/Palestinian peace process. This effort was undermined before it could even begin by the absence of several key leaders and the refusal of Israel to led Chairman Yassir Arafat attend the meeting (and be allowed to return). Before the meeting was over, the extraordinary violence and now open war declared by Israel against the Palestinians have made discussions of peace impossible.

The strategy offered by the Arab League is straightforward. It calls for Israel to agree to peace, withdraw from all occupied territories back to the pre-1967 border, accept a state of Palestine with East Jerusalem as the capital, meet the requirements of UN resolutions including resolution of the refugee issue. In return, the Arab countries will enter into a peace agreement and establish normal relations with Israel. It calls for international support for this effort.

Barely an hour after this declaration was issued, a suicide bombing at a Passover Seder killed 22. There have now been six suicide bombings in six days, as Israel rejects any discussion of peace and instead wages an all out war targeted against Arafat's headquarters in Ramallah on the West Bank, with incursions into the Gaza Strip and Lebanon. Israeli forces , with thousands of reserves called in, have bombarded the area, bulldozed the walls of Arafat's compound, imprisoned him and the local people, and continue the vicious assault with no end in sight until the entire Palestinian infrastructure lies in ruins.

The Arab press has reacted angrily against the Israeli attacks, and have criticized the US for not urging restraint on the Israelis. There have been massive demonstrations in Syria. Jordan, while stopping short of revoking its peace treaty, has strongly criticized Israel and called upon the United Nations for support. The possibility of a reaction from Arabic countries, and the probability of expanded actions by Israeli, is watched with alarm by an international community that seems powerless to intervene.

The meeting of the Organization of the Islamic Conference (http://www.oic-un.org) had been intended to reach consensus regarding positive actions by Muslim countries against terrorism. instead, the violence in Israel has derailed these talks as well, with denunciation of Israel the main topic of conversation.

Elsewhere in the Middle East, the Israeli/Palestinian conflict is the major concern, but domestic problems do not all go away.

In Algeria, dozens of Berber protesters have been injured by security forces.

Bahrain has blocked access to some opposition web sites, asking for changes in their content to avoid incitement or offense.

Iraq is enjoying a reprieve from US attention, having targeted it for the next military action in the "war on terrorism", with its neighbors uniformly calling on the US to resolve the

Israeli/Palestinian violence before considering anything else at all. Russia and the US have reached a tentative agreement to modify sanctions, allowing in food and other aid supplies.
Iraq also reached an agreement with other Arab states at the end of the Arab League meeting. In exchange for its recognition of Kuwait and promise to not invade it again, the League declared that an attack on Iraq would be an attack on all Arab states.

6. South Asia

In Afghanistan, foreign troops and aid agencies are preparing for peacekeeping and training operations. Although military actions continue, the troops have been called in for humanitarian aid as well, particularly following the disastrous earthquake

India has pushed through a controversial anti-terrorism law. The joint session of both houses was rancorous, with opposition groups, supported by human rights organizations, expressed their dismay over sweeping measures that could be broadly used against minority populations.

The US Department of State was warned against travel to Gujarat because of the threat of sectarian violence.

In Jammu Kashmir, a strike by Hindu activists has been held to protest the attack on a temple last week that killed ten.

India is providing security aid to Nepal, which most recently suffered a bomb explosion that injured 24.

In Pakistan, 30 people have been detained o ver the church attack in Islamabad and the trial of Omar Sheikh for the kidnapping and murder of journalist Daniel Pearl has been set to start on April 5. With the approval of the Pakistani government, US agents raided suspects in Pakistan, capturing 30. These may include a leading al Qaeda commander, Abu Zubaydah.

Peace talks for Sri Lanka will begin in Thailand the first week of May.

7. Finance

The Bahamas has agreed to Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) demands for financial transparency. Since the Bahamas are a leading offshore banking and tax haven destination, this agreement will put pressure on the other 13 countries that have not acceded to OECD requests, and which face possible sanctions.

In detention at the US naval base in Guantanamo Bay, two inmates continue their hunger strike. A military spokesman has said they will be fed intravenously if they continue to refuse food.

The US Internal Revenue Service has been granted the authority by federal court to review overseas credit card records to identify possible hidden income.

Following their designation by the US Department of State as Foreign Terrorist Organizations, Asbat al-Ansar, al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade and the Salafist Group for Call and Combat have had their US assets frozen.

8. Human Rights

India has pushed through a controversial anti-terrorism law. Its provisions include detention up to 90 days without trial, samples of body fluids to be required, asset seizures, and confessions in police custody to be admissible in court. The broad terms of the legislation have led to widespread concern that it will be directed against minority groups.

Chilean victims of the Pinochet dictatorship have engaged in legal actions in US and Chilean courts, including the role of US officials such as Henry Kissinger to put Pinochet in power.

Alleged Russian abuses against Chechnya have been highlighted by Human Rights Watch and will be discussed at the United Nations Human Rights Commission annual meeting.

Turkey has passed a series of laws granting new political rights for criminal investigations, and freedom of speech and association to help meet the criteria for its acceptance into the European Union. Restrictions on Kurdish broadcasts remain.

The Superior Court in New Jersey has ruled that it is illegal to keep secret the identities of the people in custody on immigration violations following the September 11 attacks. This ruling is likely to have an impact on other active lawsuits.

9. Law and Legal Issues

The war crimes trial of Slobodan Milosevic, former President of Yugoslavia, is on hold as he recovers from the flu.

Zacarias Moussaoui will face the death penalty in his trial for conspiring to commit the September 11 attacks. The US Department of Justice has never before sought the death penalty in a conspiracy case. They have undertaken interviews with the families of victims to add emotional appeals to their effort. Meanwhile, the government of France, where Moussaoui is a citizen, has decried the death penalty and will not cooperate in any effort that would provide evidence leading to his death.

Prosecutors in the Richard Colvin Reid "shoe-bombing" case were denied their request to impose extraordinary restrictions that would have limited his contacts, including disallowing meetings with his own defense witnesses. Prosecutors were attempting to use new regulations in place after the September attacks; it is not known if they will appeal.

Foday Sankoh, the rebel leader of the Revolutionary United Front who is on trial for murder, was refused permission to run for President in the May 14 elections. He may face additional charges for human rights crimes from the United Nations.

Ahmed Omar Saeed Sheikh, accused of the kidnapping and murder of Daniel Pearl, will be tried in Pakistan beginning April 5.

10. Narco-terrorism

The US General Accounting Office and Department of State have reviewed the efforts to encourage Colombian farmers coca with other crops, and have concluded that it has had no impact.

11. Transportation

Aviation

Although mandatory bag screening for airlines was imposed in January, the rule allowed a broad interpretation of how the screening would be undertaken. Now, while all airports have screening in place, the level varies significantly from one airport to another. Logan Airport in Boston Massachusetts has undertaken particularly strong measures after extensive criticism of its security when two of the September 11 hijack planes left from this airport. Logan has been experimenting with facial recognition systems and use handheld computers for passenger background checks. Last week they announced the selection of DMJM+Harris and AMEC Construction to undertake the design and construction of a complete baggage screening system, including expanded explosives detection. Implementation of this is subject to receipt of final requirements from the Transportation Safety Administration.

These efforts continue even while security investigators continue to discover ways around the tightened security systems. Continued breaches have put more pressure on the federal government.

In Scotland, the first direct ferry link to Europe will begin in May. Security will be tight, to discourage smugglers and other criminal elements.

12. Weapons of Mass Destruction

Depleted uranium continues to cause concern with widespread traces found in Serbia and Montenegro. Although there is no immediate health concern, precautions would need to be taken before conducting building or other development projects in those areas.

US Congressman Edward Markey has drawn attention to possible security concerns regarding background checks of employees at nuclear power plants, as part of broad efforts to increase security in nuclear power plants and other utilities and critical infrastructure systems.

A binding treaty between Russia and the US is progressing and will be discussed between the respective Presidents in their May meeting.

Additional supplies of smallpox vaccine have been discovered in the US, as well as the information that the doses are effective when diluted, leading to the possibility of a public vaccination program that could discourage the use of smallpox as a terrorist weapon. The potential vaccination program is under discussion, taking into account the possible side effects relative to the risk, and how such an effort would be coordinated.

13. Recently Published

Frist, Bill. (When Every Moment Counts: What You Need to Know About Bioterrorism from the Senate's Only Doctor. Rowan and Littlefield.

Hennessy, Peter. The Secret State: Whitehall and the Cold War 1945-1970. Allen Lane.

Latifa, with Chekeba Hechemi, translated Linda Coverdale. My Forbidden Face: Growing Up Under the Taliban: A Young Woman's Story. Talk Miramax.

Neuffer, Elizabeth. The Key to My Neighbour's House: Seeking Justice in Bosnia and Rwanda. Bloomsbury.

Rashid, Ahmed. Jihad. Yale University Press.

Talbott, Strobe and Nayan Chanda. The Age of Terror: America and the World After September 11. Basic Books.

The New England Journal of Medicine issue of March 28 has published "Psychological Sequelae of the September 11 Terrorist Attacks in New York City" by Sandrid Galea, et al, that concludes that there was a substantial incidence of post-traumatic stress disorder and depression following the attacks, particularly related to whether one had experienced a loss or was involved in the events.

The Wall Street Journal prepared a special feature "Spending for Defense: The New Arsenal" (March 28) with a collection of articles that look at where spending may occur, the economic impact, and other issues.

FEATURE ARTICLE:

Weapons Proliferation II: Capacity for Destruction

After the attacks of September 11, the al Qaeda network came under intense scrutiny. While the US response to the attacks was still being formulated, defendants associated with al Qaeda were already on trial for the bombings of US embassies in Africa. Testimony given in that trial indicated that al Qaeda had pursued, and possibly succeeded in, the acquisition of weapons of mass destruction.

Tests at the World Trade Center, the Pentagon and the site in Pennsylvania found no trace of any biological, chemical or nuclear agents. However, testing models indicated that had such substances been on board one of the hijacked planes, the effects could have been devastating. For example, had nuclear materials - not a bomb, but just radioactive matter - been released at the World Trade Center, Manhattan could have been contaminated for generations.

The reality of the destructive attacks was horrible, but the knowledge that it could have been far worse has had a powerful impact on US policy.

Every year, the US Department of State issues "Patterns of Global Terrorism". The 2000 report, released in April 2001, describes sponsors of state terrorism:

Afghanistan and its Taliban regime, although under observation, did not make the list. All of these countries, except Iraq, publicly condemned the September 11 attacks. Iran, albeit indirectly, assisted the US in its war against Afghanistan. North and South Korea had made tremendous progress in their relations. Even Iraq and Libya were actively pursuing closer international ties through discussions with trading partners, allies, and the United Nations over how to re-engage

Responding to the attacks, American waged war not on a single country, but on terrorism.

This "war on terrorism" began as an attack against the Taliban and al Qaeda fighters in Afghanistan. This, combined with continued support for Israel, has been perceived in the Islamic world as a war against Islam. Iran, Iraq, Syria, Libya, and Sudan are all Islamic countries. Other Islamic populations in East Asia and Eurasia have been targeted by the US, which is providing counter-terrorism training to governments including Georgia and the Philippines. Discussions over the next targets in this war were underway.

In his State of the Union address, US President Bush described Iraq, Iran and North Korea as an "axis of evil", seeming to single out these three countries for imminent direct action in a war that had expanded beyond specific acts of terrorism to include weapons of mass destruction. This phrase and its implications drew widespread international outrage and the US administration quickly back-pedaled, stressing that rhetoric used for an American audience should not be misinterpreted abroad. Such reassurances did little to restore confidence either in the targeted countries or an anxious international community.

With al Qaeda dispersed across the globe and difficult to target, the US wanted to turn attention to its next proposed target. They began discussions with allies and regional leaders about proposed action against Iraq.

Scarcely had these overtures begun, when the Nuclear Posture Review was leaked. Extracts of this secret Pentagon report were published first in the Los Angeles Times, and then released by the Department of Defense. It lists seven countries as potential targets of US nuclear weapons: China, Iran, Iraq, Libya, North Korea, Russia, and Syria. It also offers examples of the Arab-Israeli conflict, an attack on Taiwan by China or action by North Korea against South Korea as actions that would merit such a strike.

There are three general situations in which the review said nuclear weapons could be used: in retaliation against the use of weapons of mass destruction, against targets that could withstand non-nuclear attacks, and in the event of surprising military developments.

US development of additional nuclear devices, including small weapons that could be used on the battlefield, was also indicated in the report.

While it has long been understood that the US has nuclear capability and is willing to use it, the public targeting of countries accompanies by a purported first-strike policy and the development of new weapons, led to fresh outrage. Instead of being a weapon of last resort, nuclear arms now seem to be an acceptable part of the arsenal.

The US administration hastened to assure the world that this was only a planning document, and that no immediate attacks were envisaged. As Vice President Cheney set off on his trip to Europe and the Middle East, seeking backing for action against Iraq, he was at pains to reassure an unreceptive audience of the US's best intentions. To date, he has succeeded neither in allaying fears of accelerated arms proliferation nor convinced anyone that targeting Iraq should be a priority.

Why is this? After all, Iraq continues to reject United Nations weapons inspectors while it persists in developing a range of weapons of mass destruction. It is known for aggression against its neighbors and its own people, including the use of chemical agents against its own civilians. And the US is a nuclear power with a huge stockpile of nuclear weapons that need to be updated just like the rest of its arsenal to be able to meet changing threats.

Where do the risks lie? There are five established nuclear powers: The US, Russia, China, France and the UK. They are all signatories of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NNPT) of 1970, a widely accepted arms control pact to which 182 other countries have agreed.

India, Pakistan, Israel and Cuba have not signed the NNPT. Of these, only Cuba does not have nuclear weapons. Iran, Iraq, Libya and North Korea have each taken steps to acquire nuclear weapons, but it is not known how close they have come to succeeding. In contrast, other countries, including many developed countries and, more recently, countries like Belarus, Ukraine, and South Africa, have renounced their nuclear weapons programs entirely.

Biological and chemical weapons are far less regulated than nuclear weapons, so knowledge of their use is more speculative. The US Department of Defense has said there are some two dozen countries developing such capabilities. The US, Russia, and Iraq have both produced and used these weapons. It is believed that China has experimented with and possibly stockpiled chemical weapons. Most of these countries are also suspected of biological weapons research and development.

If nothing else, weapons proliferation is clearly a problem that will not be easily or quickly resolved.

But consider this: if you are a small country facing an overwhelming opponent that has openly declared its willingness to use nuclear weapons, would you strike first? Next week we will look at the conflict between India and Pakistan over Kashmir, where this question is real and immediate.