Newsletter: 04/07/02

1. Africa
2. Americas
3. Asia Pacific
4. Europe
5. Middle East
6. South Asia
7. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare
8. Finance
9. Human Rights
10 Law and Legal Issues
11. Narco-terrorism
12. Transportation
13. Weapons of Mass Destruction
14. Recently Published

FEATURE ARTICLE:
Weapons Proliferation III: Kashmir

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK

1. Africa

The government of Angola has signed a mutual cease-fire with the UNITA rebels. This agreement follows the death of long-time UNITA leader Jonas Savimbi and the arrest of dozens of other senior rebels. In this environment, and with help from other southern African countries, peace has a good chance to take hold.

Refugees from Burundi are being repatriated from Tanzania, with about 48,000 of the 350,000 who had fled rebel violence last year are registered to return, despite continued fighting.

Peace in the Democratic Republic of Congo remains elusive but talks continue, focusing now on eliminating troops from the neighboring countries of Angola, Namibia, Rwanda, Uganda, and Zimbabwe. So far, they have not reached an agreed schedule for withdrawal.

In Liberia, the rebel Liberians United for Reconciliation and Democracy (LURD), continuing their efforts to remove President Charles Taylor, have again carried out strikes near Monrovia, the capital. Government forces have, however, recaptured Kakata.

Madagascar has taken a new turn in what had been a largely peaceful election dispute with opposition leader and self-declared president Marc Ravalomanana declaring the country at war with the rival government of President Didier Ratsiraka.

In the Republic of Congo, Ninja rebels have taken army general Matoko hostage.

Former Rwandan Colonial Theoneste Bagosora is on trial before the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda for his alleged leadership of the 1994 massacre that killed over 800,000.

Following the disputed election in Zimbabwe, South Africa and Nigeria are attempting to broker talks between the government and the opposition. Meanwhile, anti-government demonstrations across the country were broken up by the police.

2. Americas

In Peru, investigations of the source of the car bomb that preceded US President Bush's is still under investigation, with suspects including Sendero Luminoso, international terrorist groups like al Qaeda, and right-wing paramilitaries. With violence in Colombia continuing, Peruvians fear that it may spill over the border.

In the US, traditional strong support of Israel has been challenged by the recent violence against Palestinian territories. President Bush, barraged by a stream of international protests, has altered his position, asking Israel to immediately withdraw, and scheduling a visit by Secretary of State Powell. Protests against the Israeli incursions have occurred across the US. The issue is, however, deeply divisive.

Another American Taliban fighter, Yasser Esam Hamdi, has been tentatively identified and will be moved into federal custody in the US.

UK Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams is refusing to appear before a US congressional committee investigating links between the Irish Republican Army (IRA) and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC).

Venezuelan oil workers have continued their strike, now expanding to violent clashes with the government. A nationwide strike has been called by the Confederation of Venezuelan Workers for Tuesday, to show support for the oil workers.

3. Asia Pacific

China's longest-serving political prisoner, Tibetan dissident Tanag Jigme Sangpo, has been released for reasons of ill health.

North Korea has pledged to resume international nuclear arms inspection talks under the 1994 Agreed Framework.

Striking power workers in South Korea have gone back to work after a 38-day stoppage and the general strike has been called off in light of negotiations offered by the government.

North and South Korea have issued a joint statement pledging to revive their 2-year old rapprochement process.

4. Europe

The European Union and member countries are continuing their efforts at mediation despite refusals by Israel to let them meet with Palestinian leader Arafat. They also applied pressure to Washington for their involvement in stemming the violence against the Palestinian territories.

Saturday 6 April marked the tenth anniversary of the outbreak of the war in Bosnia, in which over 200,000 were killed. Wartime leaders Karadzic and Mladic are still wanted by the United Nations for war crimes, as those for which former Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic is currently being tried.

France has witnessed a number of anti-Semitic incidents, including the fire-bombing of a synagogue and other arson attacks and a bomb planted in a Jewish cemetery.

France has also received some notoriety over a new conspiracy theory described in a book, The Frightening Fraud, by Thierry Meyssan. It claims the plane that flew into the Pentagon on September 11 did not exist.

Russia claims that three of the detainees in Guantanamo Bay are Russian citizens and has requested their extradition.

Many of the US blocks on Russian contracts with Iraq have been removed. The US hopes to encourage Russia to support new sanctions against Iraq.

Turkey is preparing to assume control of the Afghan peacekeeping force.

UK Prime Minister Tony Blair faces a possible revolt from his own parliamentary back-benchers, as he continues to provide support US President Bush for action against Iraq.

In Northern Ireland, Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams is refusing to appear before a US congressional committee investigating links between the Irish Republican Army (IRA) and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC).

Recent violence in Northern Ireland, including three hours of rioting, has been blamed on paramilitaries, particularly the Ulster Defense Association (UDA).

Three arrests, including former IRA leader Raymond McCartney, have been made regarding the break-in at the Belfast security headquarters.

After failing to meet a deadline last week that led to the freezing of $40 million in US aid, Yugoslavia has said that it will adopt a law that will allow the extradition of additional war crime suspects to the United Nations.

5. Middle East

The Organization of the Islamic Conference ended its meeting last week without a definition of terrorism, calling on the United Nations to establish a universal definition. Key to the disarray was the question of Palestinian militants and suicide bombers, still considered heroes and martyrs by many.

In fact, the fate of the Palestinians has dominated the news this week in the light of Israel's war to eliminate the infrastructure of Palestinian militants and suicide bombers, which has swept the civilian population and the Palestinian leadership in its wake, including the imprisonment of Yasser Arafat in a compound largely reduced to rubble and threatening him with exile.

The Pope and other religious leaders have joined heads of Christian churches in Jerusalem to appeal for and end to the violence. The United Nations and the European Union have asked for withdrawal. Egypt, Jordan, Russia, Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries, Turkey, and the United States have all begged Israel for restraint. Egypt and Jordan, the only two Arabic countries with diplomatic relations with Israel, have restricted their ties. Muslim countries, including Indonesia have witnessed massive, violent demonstrations against Israel and the US for its support of Israel. A million gathered in Morocco. Tens of thousands rallied for peace in European capitals. The Arab League's foreign ministers are in an emergency meeting to discuss their approach to Israel's occupation of Palestinian territories. A peace rally in Tel Aviv drew nearly 10,000 Israelis.

In the face of international condemnation, clear instructions from US President Bush, and the imminent arrival of US Secretary of State Powell, Israel has accelerated its military offensive. They now occupy the major Palestinian towns and are attacking southern Lebanon.

Meanwhile, Algeria is having its own share of violence with continued attacks by Islamic militants. An attack by a splinter group the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC) (split from the Armed Islamic Group (GIA) killed 20 soldiers.

Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has urged that Islamic oil-producing countries suspend exports to friends of Israel. Iraq has joined this proposal, preparing a draft resolution to this effect for the Arab League.

6. South Asia

In Afghanistan, US troops continue cave-by-cave investigations that have uncovered large quantities of fingerprints, documents, and other forensic materials contributing to intelligence in the ongoing war. Rockets were fired at international peacekeepers without damage. Turkey is preparing to assume peacekeeping duties. Additional forces are required to stem the increasing rates of crime and the continued instability across the country. The Afghan interim administration arrested over fifty suspects in a purported bomb plot..

Bangladesh is trying to replace its controversial anti-terrorism law with a new security bill. Both have been widely criticized by human rights advocates because of the broad range of police powers it provides.

Religious violence in India's western Gujarat state continues despite a government crackdown.

In Kashmir, Islamic militants with the Islamic Front attacked a Hindu temple, killing ten.

Nepal has relaxed some restrictions under its state of emergency.

In Pakistan, General Pervez Musharraf has announced he would hold a referendum to allow him to stay in power rather than holding elections. This proposal has received wide criticism both domestically and internationally.

Meanwhile, Pakistan continues to round up militants. They arrested Abu Zubeida, a leading al Qaeda member, and released him to American authorities. The trial in Pakistan of the four suspects in the Daniel Pearl case will be held in prison rather than an open court.

7. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare

The US Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) has announced it is licensing wireless encryption technology from Certicon for eventual use by air traffic controllers.

A US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) survey shows that while 90% of large companies, universities and government agencies are attacked by hackers, only 34% of them report the attacks.

The US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) project to combat spam (unsolicited email) has led to 63 legal actions against fraudulent schemes.

8. Finance

A deadline looms for financial services companies to comply with the USA Patriot Act provisions that extend money-laundering regulations reporting requirements. The new systems must be in place by April 24.

9. Human Rights

Saturday 6 April marked the tenth anniversary of the outbreak of the war in Bosnia, in which over 200,000 were killed. Wartime leaders Karadzic and Mladic are still wanted by the United Nations for war crimes, as those for which former Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic is currently being tried.

In Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, two of the US detainees who have been on hunger strike were force-fed through stomach tubes.

10. Law and Legal Issues

Theoneste Bagosora, formerly a Colonial in Rwanda, is on trial before the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda for his alleged leadership of the 1994 massacre that killed some 800,000 people in three months. On the first day of his trial he refused to leave his cell and, with 3 other defendants, boycotted the court.

Yasser Esam Hamdi, in custody in Guantanamo Bay, has been tentatively identified as an American and will be moved into federal custody in the US.

Photographs of John Walker Lindh showing him strapped to a stretcher, naked and blindfolded, have been used by his attorneys to show that he was mistreated when arrested with other Taliban fighters in Afghanistan, and thus his confession was coerced.

Russia claims that three of the detainees in Guantanamo Bay are Russian citizens and has requested their extradition.

The Serbian government has said that it will undertake the extradition of additional war crime suspects to the United Nations.

The trial in Pakistan of the four suspects in the Daniel Pearl kidnapping and murder, including Ahmed Omar Saeed Sheikh, will be held in prison rather than an open court.

al Qaeda member Mamdouh Mahmud Salim, facing separate terrorism conspiracy charges, has pled guilty in attempting to murder a federal jail guard with a sharpened comb.

Mark Stroman of Texas was convicted for the murder of an Indian immigrant, in a racist revenge attack after September11. He has been sentenced to death.

Abu Zubeida, a leading al Qaeda member, has been arrested in Pakistan and released to American authorities. Reports that the CIA would not rule out torture when interrogating this suspect were strongly denied by the US government.

11. Narco-terrorism

Stemming the emerging opium and cocaine crops in Afghanistan and Colombia is proving difficult, with few alternatives in place for the farmers. There is a plan in the works to compensate Afghani farmers to destroy their poppies, paid for by western governments including the US and UK who have been encouraging a crackdown on this crop.

12. Transportation

Aviation

The US Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) has announced it is licensing wireless encryption technology from Certicon for eventual use by air traffic controllers. A government contract for explosive detection equipment is being filled by Analogic Corporation and L-3 Communications Corporation. The FAA is also ready to issue cockpit safety rules, already in place for US airlines, to foreign airlines.

13. Weapons of Mass Destruction

North Korea has pledged to resume international nuclear arms inspection talks under the 1994 Agreed Framework.

The newly discovered stock of smallpox vaccine, dating from 1958, is being donated by its manufacturer, Aventis Pasteur.

14. Recently Published

Blumenfeld, Laura. Revenge: A Story of Hope. Simon & Schuster.

Heuvel, Katrina Vanden. A Just Response: The Nation on Terrorism, Democracy, and September 11, 2001. Thunders Moutn.

Lourie, Richard. Sakharov: A Biography. Brandeis University Press

Marnham, Patrick. Resistance and Betrayal: The Death and Life of the Greatest Hero of the French Resistance (Jean Moulin). Random House.

Segal, Ronald. Islam's Black Slaves: The Other Black Diaspora. Farrar Straus Giroux; Atlantic Books.

Wilson, Richard and Edmund A. C. Crouch. Risk-Benefit Analysis. Harvard University Press.

In the Financial Times, (April 3, 4, and 5), David White has published a three-part series "Segregation and Integration", about Northern Ireland four years after the Good Friday Agreement.

FEATURE ARTICLE:

Weapons Proliferation III: Kashmir

Last week's feature reviewed weapons proliferation in the context of US policy. This week, we look in depth at a conflict that, while not in the forefront of recent US policy statements, in many ways represents a model for future threats in a world that is no longer dominated by two super powers. This is the conflict between India and Pakistan over Kashmir.

Like so many other conflicts, this began in the aftermath of colonial rule. India, primarily Hindu, and Pakistan, predominately Muslim, were created in 1947. The border region of Kashmir, mainly Muslim but ruled by a Hindu Maharaja, was faced with a difficult choice.

Situated 5,000 meters high in the mountains, in the border area between the two countries, Kashmir was experiencing increasing tribal raids and lawlessness throughout the region. To control this, India provided military assistance. Faced with a decision over whether to join India or Pakistan, the British authorities, led by governor General Lord Mountbatten, believed that joining with India would, in the short term, provide greater stability, with the understanding that the final fate of Kashmir would be decided by its people through a referendum. Independence was not considered an acceptable option.

An agreement, called the Instrument of Accession, was put together and the Maharajah, fleeing the fighting, went to India to sign the agreement, which has been under dispute ever since. Pakistan contends that the document was not properly executed, that it was signed under duress, and that it violated previous agreements with Pakistan. India claims that under the terms of the legitimate Accession agreement, it is entitled to the entire state of Kashmir, including that third of the territory administered by Pakistan under prior agreements.

The first war between India and Pakistan over this issue was fought in 1947-8. The Line of Control was established in 1949 as a demarcation for the cease-fire at the end of the war. Another war broke out in 1965, which finally ended with the Simla Agreement in 1972, which slightly modified the Line of Control and pledged bilateral negotiations.

Neither the referendum nor the negotiations took place. Instead, the conflict was deepened by the rise of a militant insurgency movement in Indian controlled Kashmir (now the state of Jammu Kashmir). The first group formed was the Jammu-Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF), in favor of independence. More recently, it has taken a back seat to newer militant Islamic groups. There are a couple dozen such groups, with thousands of members. The most prominent among them are the Jaish e Mohammad, Lashkar e Tolba, and the United Jihad Council (UJC). Jaish and Lashkar have been implicated in the attack on the Indian Parliament in December 2001.

Following the attack on Parliament, tensions between India and Pakistan have been at an all time high. Troops along the Line of Control now approach a million. So far, the chronic sporadic violence that characterizes relations along the Line of Control has not crossed the line to open conflict, but the danger of an action that could trigger a massive retaliation is of grave concern.

Why has a perennial border conflict, that mirrors similar conflicts across the globe, triggered international consternation? Both Pakistan and India are nuclear powers.

India began building nuclear weapons in the 1960s, concerned to defend itself against potential threats from nuclear China. Its first tests were in 1974. Pakistan started nuclear weapon construction shortly thereafter. Both countries developed and purchased extensive quantities of short- and long-range missiles as well, some of which could be used to carry nuclear payloads.

By 1998 both countries had significant nuclear test programs that were criticized throughout the world and eventually led to sanctions imposed by some countries, including the United States. (US sanctions against Pakistan were lifted in November 2001 in exchange for Pakistan's support for the war in Afghanistan.)

In January of this year, India tested the Agni missile, capable of reaching Pakistan and of carrying a nuclear load. This was seen as a direct threat against Pakistan, following the attack on the Indian parliament the previous December. General Musharraf of Pakistan said he had intelligence that India would begin a new round of nuclear tests. This was denied by India, which said that it would continue its self-imposed testing moratorium. (Their last tests were conducted in 1998.)

Neither India nor Pakistan has revealed the extent of their nuclear arsenals, but there are a range of estimates of the potential capabilities. The table below includes data from a number of sources, taken in conjunction with basic facts about the two countries.

Item	India	Pakistan
Army personnel (standing army)	1,100,000	550,000
Defense Spending as % of GDP	2.5%	4.2%
Delivery Systems Aircraft Missiles Ships Submarines	738 60 27 16	353 25 8 10
Fissile Material Weapons Grade Plutonium Weapons Grade Uranium Nuclear-weapon equivalent	240-395 kg small quantity 45-95	1.7-13 kg 585-800 kg 30-52
Heavy Weapons	10,528	5,491
Population Entire Country Kashmir control	1 billion 7.7 million	142 million 2.6 million

Sources: BBC World Service, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Federation of American Scientists, Jane's Sentinel, Institute for Science and International Security, Nuclear Control Institute, SIPRI . Additional bibliographic citations at https://terrorismcentral.com
Neither country has signed the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty . Neither has signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. There are no formal procedures for notification of tests. In fact, there are no verification processes at all.

This hasn't discouraged suppliers. India and Pakistan are growing markets for eager arms dealers, including governments with strategic interests in the region. Russia is the principal source of advanced weapons to India, while China supplies Pakistan. India also receives arms from Israel and is interested in anti-ballistic defenses, (an interest that has led it to support US missile defense proposals). Pakistan also gets supplies from France and Ukraine.

With all this military expansion, it is important to remember that India and Pakistan have very different motivations. India, vastly larger and superior by any numeric measurement, to the resources of Pakistan, wants to be in a position to defend its borders, (as porous and tenuous as they often are), not only against smaller countries but also against China.

Pakistan wants to build up a sufficient nuclear arsenal to deter action from India. it feels that the nuclear arsenal levels the playing field between the two countries.

Both countries face mixed populations in terms of ethnicity, religion, language, and history. Both face threats from militant organizations, from within and outside their borders, as well as fear of other terrorist activities.

India's unbending reaction to Pakistan after the attack on Parliament last December has been tightly tied to terrorism. Specifically, they have listed organizations and individuals they want extradited, arrested, or otherwise conscripted. Pakistan has responded promptly and aggressively to these requests, and has made some progress. Its efforts have been rewarded by the US.

In Kashmir specifically, the independence forces viewed as terrorist entities by Indian authorities are widely supported as freedom fighters, or as heroes in a religious war. These views are shared not only by interested groups in the general population but also by political, military, and other security forces. Balancing these interests has so far proven intractable.

What worries the international community is that India and Pakistan are new nuclear powers, which do not have the long traditions of communication and regulation that were associated with nuclear powers during the cold war and the well-established practices of mutual deterrence. These two countries, with China a third nuclear power also very much in the picture, do not have regulatory or communication standards, nor do they have technological safeguards. The possibility of accidents or sudden unanticipated escalation are real, as is the possibility that poorly secured fissile material could slip into the hands of terrorist organizations.

The United Nations continues to have a presence along the Line of Control and with the resolutions that it has passed in favor of a referendum. India, citing treaty language that calls for bilateral discussions, tolerates the UN presence without accepting it as a party to discussions. The resolutions have been ignored. The impasse continues.

Many aspects of this situation are reflected in other regions of the world: emerging economies, the development of new political and diplomatic instruments, limited technological infrastructure, well-armed military forces, a wide range of weapons and threats from within and outside the countries. Regional conflicts of this nature are widespread. India and Pakistan receive attention now because they are nuclear powers. As other countries obtain nuclear, biological and chemical strengths, the threats will increase algorithmically.