Newsletter: 04/14/02

1. Africa
2. Americas
3. Asia Pacific
4. Europe
5. Middle East
6. South Asia
7. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare
8. Finance
9. Human Rights
10 Law and Legal Issues
11. Narco-terrorism
12. Transportation
13. Weapons of Mass Destruction
14. Recently Published

FEATURE ARTICLE:
Weapons Proliferation IV: Amelioration, Political and Technological

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK

1. Africa

Peace continues in Angola, with UNITA under the new leadership of General Paulo Lukamba ("Gato"), giving the country an opportunity to begin to resolve major problems of healthcare and literacy, while facing endemic banditry and landmines.

Peace talks between the rebels and the government of Democratic Republic of Congo have been extended for a kwee, while South African President Thabo Mbeki mediates the discussions to agree on a power-sharing political compromise.

The border war between Ethiopia and Eritrea that killed 80,000 may be settled now with the border finally determined by the United Nations, a decision both nations have stated they would accept as binding and final.

In Madagascar, violence worsens with new deaths following clashes between the two rival presidents, incumbent Ratsiraka and self-proclaimed electoral victor Ravalomanana.

In South Africa, Wouter Basson , the man who headed the chemical and biological weapons programs under Apartheid in the 1980s, was cleared of 46 charges, including murder and conspiracy. Prosecutors plan to appeal, and he may also face civil charges.

Sudan's military authorities have appealed for volunteers to go to support the Palestinians against Israel.

UNICEF, the United Nation's children's agency, has issued an alert regarding the safety of the children kidnapped by the Lord's Resistance Army rebel group, and Uganda plans a final assault against the Sudan-based rebel group.

In Uganda, April 11 was fir the first time set aside as a day of national observance to commemorate the downfall of Idi Amin, the dictator responsible for widespread torture.

Government and opposition leaders in Zimbabwe have made little progress in their ongoing discussions regarding the disputed elections.

2. Americas

In Canada, the separatist government in Quebec has put the question of independence on hold for at least five years, waiting for public interest to support the concept again.

Car bombings and kidnappings continue in Colombia, attributed primarily to the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), including the audacious mass kidnapping from Parliament of 13 legislators and their assistants.

Connections between FARC and the Irish Republican Army (IRA) have been identified in hearings by the US House Committee on International Relations. (Watch for a forthcoming article on this topic.)

In an action the illustrates the continued political uncertainty in Mexico, President Vincente Fox was denied permission to visit the US and Canada, the first time the Senate had stopped a leader from leaving the country.

In Peru, a truth commission has begun, with a tribunal beginning public hearings on the years of violence between the military and Shining Path rebels that killed 30,000

The United States continued military action in Afghanistan, while being forced by the situation in the Middle East to reign in its ambitions to extend its "war on terrorism" to Iraq. Leading government officials Defense Secretary Rumsfeld and Secretary of State Powell were both redirected in the Middle East, told in no uncertain terms that there was room for no other discussions until the violence between Israel and the Palestinians abated.

Domestically, the fallout over problems with the Immigration and Naturalization Service continued. The House Judiciary Commission voted to separate INS' immigration and tourism sections. INS is proposing new limits on tourist and student visas.

President Hugo Chavez was ousted in a short-lived military coup. The coup was executed following a general strike and a protest march on the presidential palace that was met with a violent response, killing 13. Upon news of the coup, neighboring countries showed little sympathy for the elected President, who is a strong supporter of Cuba. Chavez was taken into military custody and asked to resign, while the leader of the Chamber of Commerce temporarily assumed the leadership. But faced with overwhelming support from the poor who had overwhelmingly elected Chavez in the last election, plus wavering support from the soldiery, Chavez returned to power only two days after being forced out.

3. Asia Pacific

Cambodia and the US began asylum procedures for this Vietnamese central highlanders.

Indonesian President Megawati Sukarnoputri has met with US officials who continue to urge more aggressive anti-terrorism measures.

North Korea and South Korea have agreed to start family reunions again and to renew their discussions after months of deteriorating relations following US policy statements against the "axis of evil".

US/Philippine activities continue, with additional US troops on their way, while 3 Philippine senators have launched an investigation into possible human rights abuses during the offensive against Abu Sayyaf. Negotiations to free the Burnhams, kidnapped nearly a year ago, are under way.

4. Europe

European nations from the UK to Turkey called for trade sanctions against Israel. This position, at odds with the US, is in contrast with strong measures taken against terrorist financing. According to the US Treasury, European countries have frozen nearly as many assets as have been blocked by the US.

Anti-Semitic attacks have shaken France, with large marches and attacks against synagogues and other Jewish sites. Dozens of arrests have been made.

Germany has suspended its arms sales to Israel.

In Georgia, Russian peacekeepers have left.

Italy is bracing itself for a general strike next week.

Russia has provided details of a US espionage ring it claims to have broken.

In Spain, the Basque separatist group ETA continues its campaign of intimidation.

Turkey is in discussions with NATO to carry out its peacekeeping role in Afghanistan.

UK Prime Minister Tony Blair continues to support US President Bush, while facing strong opposition from his own party and the general public.

The Irish Republican Army (IRA) has undertaken a second disarmament, putting more weapons beyond use, to widespread praise. The Real IRA (RIRA) has issued a statement to the Bloody Sunday inquiry, stating that it poses no threat to any of the witnesses to tin inquiry.

Connections between FARC and the Irish Republican Army (IRA) have been identified in hearings by the US House Committee on International Relations. (Watch for a forthcoming article on this topic.)

The Yugoslav parliament, with government approval, is preparing a law to allow extradition to the international war crimes tribunal in The Hague. Following this, the former interior minister, Vlajko Stojikjkovic, committed suicide.

A report about the 1995 Srebrenica massacre (in which 7,500 Muslims were killed in one week), was released. Commissioned by the Dutch government in 1996, the report concluded there was no evidence that former President Slobodan Milosevic was involved, instead blaming Dutch peacekeepers and the United Nations.

5. Middle East

The dead are being discovered and buried after a week of violence between Israel and the Palestinians. Under enormous international pressure, US Secretary of State Powell arrived in the region to try to reduce the violence, so far to no avail.

For details of the continuing conflict we recommend special coverage from the Guardian and the BBC. Both have extensive chronologies of the events and summaries of international news coverage as well as their own extensive reporting. For personal coverage, try The Independent. Reporting from the New York Times is always thorough and unbiased; you need to be a member to access it.

In Bahrain a pro-Palestinian demonstration that spread into the grounds of the American embassy led to one death and then further demands that the US leave the country.

Iran is trying to use its influence with Lebanese Hezbollah to help reduce tension along the Israeli/Lebanese border, where tensions are very high and where the possibility of widening the war is real.

Iraq has said it will stop oil exports to protest the Israeli offensive.

An investigation is underway in the cause of an explosion in a Jewish synagogue in southern Tunisia that killed 13, including 8 Germans. It is believed to be a planned attack, not an accident.

6. South Asia

Afghanistan awaits the return of its refugees, but the security situation continues to make that difficult, as shown by the recent assassination attempt on the defense minister that killed 5 (but not the minister). Promised international aid has not yet materialized to the extent promised. The effort to stem this year's opium poppy crop has stretched resources more thinly and led to additional sources of conflict.

Indian authorities have arrested Burmese journalist Soe Myint for alleged involvement in the hijacking of a Thai Airways flight in 1990.

Ethnic violence continues to plague Gujarat and Kashmit. In Kashmir, another ten have been killed in raids and a market bombing. The violence in Gujaret is leading to conflicts within India's coalition government.

The Maoist rebels in Nepal attacked four towns, killing at least 54. The King has called for national unity against the rebels.

In Pakistan, General Musharraf has begun campaigning for approval in a referendum to continue his rule.

In Sri Lanka, long-time Tamil Tiger leader Velupillai Prabhakaran held a press conference, discussing his commitment to the peace process. The ceasefire continues to hold.

7. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare

The Internet Fraud Complaint Center and National White Collar Crime Center of the US Federal Bureau of Investigation showed that over 42% of complaints last year were against fraud in online auctions.

8. Finance

According to the US Treasury, European countries have frozen nearly as many assets as have been blocked by the US. They have been less cooperative is submitting names of individuals.

Money-laundering is getting special attention in France, where a parliamentary committee has been investigating activities on the Riviera. A Spanish judge is investigating offshore funds; Spain's main interest is in ETA.

9. Human Rights

Amnesty International reports that the number of executions doubled last year, with at least 3,048 compared to 1,457 in 2000. Of these, China was responsible for 1,700, Iran 139, Saudi Arabia 79 and the US 66.

The International Criminal Court has exceeded the required number of signatures and will be ratified and in force on July 1.

The United Nations reports that older people will soon outnumber younger - for the first time in history. Their "International Plan of Action on Aging" suggests that attention must be paid to this emerging need.

10. Law and Legal Issues

The first suit against an airline involved in the September 11 attacks has been brought in the US.

In South Africa, Wouter Basson , the man who headed the chemical and biological weapons programs under Apartheid in the 1980s, was cleared of 46 charges, including murder and conspiracy. The judgement took 9 hours and was 1,500 pages long. Prosecutors plan to appeal, and he may also face civil charges.

Photographs of John Walker Lindh showing him handcuffed and blindfolded, with an obscenity written across the blindfold, may bolster his case that he was under duress and mistreated in captivity.

Zacarian Moussaoui, charged with conspiracy in the September 11 attacks, has been kept in very strick conditions. His attorneys allege that these are overly restrictive, preventing him from defending himself.

Lynn Stewart, attorney for Omar Abdel-Rahman (the Blind Sheik, convicted of involvement in the 1993 World Trade Center bombing) has been charged with providing material support to the Islamic Group by helping her client to send messages to them, to help him plot additional attacks. The translator and two others also charged.

11. Narco-terrorism

Afghani poppy farmers resisted attempts to destroy their crop, including violence that have led to at least 11 deaths. The Afghan Government has begun destroying the crops despite the protests. Farmers believe the compensation they are being offered is inadequate.

12. Transportation

Aviation

Criminal background checks are planned for airports in New York and New Jersey.

The US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has issued the Air Transportation Oversight System to help identify areas of high risk and monitor compliance based on risk.

13. Weapons of Mass Destruction

Russia and the US have agreed to accelerate negotiations to a legally binding treaty on reductions of strategic nuclear weapons.

In South Africa, Wouter Basson , the man who headed the chemical and biological weapons programs under Apartheid in the 1980s, was acquitted. Testimony included information regarding research into poisons that would only affect blacks, hoarding anthrax and cholera, poisoning chocolates with botulism, and many other bizarre applications designed to eliminate the opposition, including such prominent figures as Nelson Mandala.

The British government has ordered a stock of millions of doses of smallpox vaccine.

The US Department of Defense has issues its Annual Environmental Cleanup Report for Fiscal 2001. This reviews "Progress in the cleanup of hazardous waste and uexploded ordnance at more than 28,000 sites located on active military installations, formerly used Defense sites, and closed installations...." The report is available at http://156.80.6.200/derparc_fy01/derp/index.htm

14. Recently Published

Barnett, Michael. Eyewitness to a Genocide: The United Nations and Rwanda. Cornell University Press.

Bennett, William J. Why We Fight: Moral Clarity and the War on Terrorism. Doubleday

Power, Samantha. America and the Age of Genocide. Basic Books.

FEATURE ARTICLE:

Weapons Proliferation IV: Amelioration Policies and Technologies

Over the last three weeks, we've reviewed the nature of weapons proliferation, covering its modern history, countries targeted by recent US policy statements, and the situation in Kashmir. Today, we finish the series with a review of the policies and technological means to stem weapons proliferation.

Technology to protect against weapons, particularly weapons of mass destruction, involves medical protection, physical protection, detection, and decontamination. (Training to support these is, of course, essential.)

Medical protection is for pre-treatment against risks. The most obvious medical defense is vaccination against potential biological substances. Once exposed, rapid application of antibiotics may be effective in preventing a disease following exposure. There are also practical techniques, such as ensuring the body is sufficiently hydrated when wearing protective equipment, to help avoid heat prostration.

Physical protection is both personal and collective. For example, an individual police officer can wear a vest that protects against bullets, a respirator against fire, or a gas mask against specific biochemical agents. An army can create collective physical protection through fortification and other military measures. In the case of large events, a combination of techniques is used, whereby well-protected experts who are trained in the field use simpler equipment to quickly move the general population to a shelter.

Detection includes monitoring and verifying that an event has occurred, and identifying the agent used. Once detected, the alarm is sounded and monitoring continues until the immediate danger is over or the event is under control. Detection techniques are still rudimentary and often, particularly with biological agents, require time-consuming laboratory tests. This is an area of significant current research and development, particularly in the development of field units capable of detecting multiple agents.

Decontamination starts with individuals and extends to the equipment and the physical surroundings. The challenges of decontamination following a biological incident are well illustrated in the case of the anthrax-laced letters, and the difficulty of cleaning post office equipment and office buildings that were exposed. Decontamination is so difficult, and the delay between exposure and discovery can be so great, that far more work is being done now in methods to avoid contamination.

Research is underway in a number of novel technologies that can be used to control distribution or manage events. For example:
* Responsive clothing and portable detection and response equipment
* Detection technologies including mass spectrometry and point detection of nucleic acids, cells, or antibodies
* Field detection and alerting systems
* Advanced storage devices, including hardened containers and facilities
* Mobile detection equipment that uses miniature sensors and portable computers with styli
* Distributed information systems to aid rapid detection and response
* Security of orbiting space systems
* Remote detection systems, used for intelligence and to support verification mechanisms

But while technology can offer means by which to execute different solutions, weapons proliferation will only end with the implementation of international policy solutions that incorporate mitigation of its causes and contributing factors with practical political measures.

International treaties have been the primary mechanism through which to agree and engage in anti-proliferation measures. These treaties have included the Geneva Protocol, the Biological Weapons Convention, International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR). and the Chemical Weapons Convention. To combat nuclear proliferation, bilateral and multilateral agreements include the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM), theConventional Forces Europe Treaty (CFE), the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) and the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START).

These treaties have opened the way for further discussions and a variety of activities. Russia and the US have ongoing discussions to reduce their respective nuclear arsenals, while seeking to accommodate different goals regarding anti-ballistic missiles. Heavy pressure is being applied through diplomatic and economic means to encourage Iraq to admit UN weapons inspectors again. North Korea has agreed to reopen discussions regarding its nuclear arsenal. The environmental and health impact of nuclear devices, including the impact of depleted uranium in field combat and the aftermath of nuclear testing, has opened discussions regarding compensation and clean-up, in both domestic and international forums.

International treaties must be accompanied by implementation of in-country mechanisms. In the US, there a number of legislative and administrative controls in place. For example, the Arms Export Control Act (AECA) regulates exports of arms, while other legislation controls encryption software, dual use technology and so forth. The Defense Threat Reduction Agency, Chem-Bio Defenses coordinates expertise in this area across the various units in the Department of Defense.

International monitors are used to ensure compliance with the international accords, including the inspection of defense/military installations and the inspection of dual-use facilities related to nuclear, biological and chemical agents. The United Nations agencies and inspection teams are the best known. The Australia Group works on controls of dual use biological and chemical equipment.

Verification mechanisms are the most difficult area of treaties. The level of access that inspectors have to facilities is always under dispute, as countries balance military security and, in the case of dual use applications, the security of corporate assets and company trade secrets, with the need of international inspectors to verify compliance with the various treaty mechanisms. Mutual verification procedures continue to be a stumbling block in US/Russian arms reduction agreements.

Embargoes are a common measure to limit weapons trading. The US maintains lists of embargoed countries with whom no trade can be conducted as well as a range of export controls from basic export licensing through items requiring presidential agreement. Other countries have similar processes.
The United Nations frequently includes various limitations on trade as part of a sanctions program. With the rise of "smart sanctions" these are more and more narrowly targeted. For example, travel sanctions were applied against named politicians in Zimbabwe as a way to apply pressure during the recent election campaigns. When these had little impact, additional sanctions were applied, and the government has at least agreed to discuss the international concerns these sanctions made manifest.