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CONTENTS:

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK:

1. World
2. Africa
3. Americas
4. Asia Pacific
5. Europe
6. Middle East
7. South Asia
8. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare
9. Finance
10 Human Rights
11. Law and Legal Issues
12. Narco-terrorism
13. Transportation
14. Weapons of Mass Destruction
15. Recently Published

FEATURE ARTICLE:
The Caucasus Part 1: A Terrorist Tinderbox

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK

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1. World

There are a number of developments on the international environmental front. Last week there were international climate talks that focused on ways to adapt to the changes already taking place. Another meeting deals with finding a way to end the crisis of diminished fishing stocks. And the United Nations Environment Program with the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe are working on a plan to prevent conflict by addressing environmental triggers such as poor water quality and contaminated land.

For those who think lack of water only affects the poor, think again. Australia faces a drought that is cutting the grain harvest by more than half. There is water rationing in Melbourne. And the trade deficit because of the reduced agriculture exports has dramatically increased.

The World Health Organization has identified the top ten preventable risks to health, accounting for forty percent of deaths around the world each year. The two largest are low weight children and mothers; and unsafe sex, followed by high blood pressure; tobacco; alcohol; unsafe water, sanitation and hygiene; high cholesterol; indoor smoke from solid fuels; iron deficiency; and obesity.

On Iraq, it seemed the US might issue an ultimatum at the beginning of the week, but now Secretary of State Powell indicates discussions will continue at least another week, (i.e., after the forthcoming US elections). Interesting press coverage this week included:
* Cameron W. Barr, “Iraq: Unsanctioned Voices” in two parts. The Christian Science Monitor, October 31, 2002 and November 1, 2002.
* Nick Childs. “US boot camp for journalists” in BBC News, November 1, 2002 online at http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/2388011.stm
* Jose de Cordoba, “Self-Interest and Principle Tug At Mexico as Vote on Iraq Looms” in the Wall Street Journal, November 1, 2002.
* Leonard Doyle, “Subtle performance from the pretender to Saddam’s throne” in The Independent, October 26, 2002 online at http://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle_east/story.jsp?story=345912
* Michael R. Gordon, “U.S. Pilots In Gulf Use Southern Iraq for Practice Runs” in The New York Times, November 3, 2002
* Caroline Hawley, “Iraq opens border with Saudi Arabia” in BBC News, October 31, 2002 online at http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/2382751.stm
* Nicolas Pelham. “Dam on the Tigris puts Assyrian past under threat” in the Financial Times, November 2-3, 2002
* Laura Secor. “The Dissident” in the Boston Sunday Globe, November 3, 2002
* Anthony Shadid, “Lives of desperation in Iraq” in The Boston Globe, October 29, 2002
* Serge Schmemann, “Controlling Iraq’s Oil Wouldn’t Be Simple” in The New York Times, November 3, 2002
* Steve Stecklow and Alix M. Freedman, “Despite Restraints, Iraq Gets Winstons; Who’s to Blame?” in The Wall Street Journal, October 30, 2002
* Steven R. Weisman, “Language Barrier at the U.N.: Once More Into the Breach” in The New York Times, November 3, 2002.

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2. Africa

In Angola, the army says it has captured military headquarters of the Cabinda separatist movement FLEC.

Fighting in the Central African Republic continues between government soldiers and rebels loyal to former General Francois Bozize Dozens have been killed. Americans have been evacuated.

The government of Democratic Republic of Congo and the two main rebel groups, the Congolese Liberation Movement (MLC) and the Congolese Rally for Democracy (RCD) have agreed a power-sharing deal, but the final agreement, including repatriation of Rwandan rebels, has been delayed by 90 days.

Peace talks to end the crisis in the Ivory Coast have made little progress. Evan as the talks were starting, the government battled the rebels. But an agreement to grant an amnesty has been drafted. See how the west reacts with this snapshot: Alan Cowell, “War Inflates Cocoa Prices But Leaves Africans Poor” in The New York Times, October 31, 2002.

Kenya has set December 27 as the day for new general elections, marking the end of 24-years of rule under President Daniel arap Moi.

The African Union, the only organization not to recognize Marc Ravalomanana as President of Madagascar, has delayed a decision on whether or not Madagascar can join the AU. They will meet with the party of the former President and decide at the January AU summit.

Somalia factions have signed a ceasefire agreement. It has not been endorsed by Somalialand in the north nor factions in central Somalia. UN General Secretary Annan also called for an end to arms proliferation in the region.

A series of nine bombs exploded in Soweto township, South Africa. A tenth was defused. The explosions targeted the railway, as well as explosions at a mosque and a temple. One was killed and one injured. It is believed that a right-wing white minority group is responsible for the attacks, possibly with people form the armed forces and police. Two men are being questioned.

Atrocities in Uganda continue, including Lords Resistance Army attacks against civilians and government efforts to forcibly relocate civilians/ The continued attacks threaten the attempts to start a peace process.

Zambia has decided to reject genetically modified food for aid supplies, even as the country faces imminent starvation. The opposition has criticized the decision, as has the US government that says Zambia ignored the science behind it, but Zambia feels it would put its agriculture at risk in the longer term.

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3. Americas

Brazil decisively elected leftist Luiz Ignacio Lula da Silva of the Worker’s Party as the new President.

Canada warned its citizens of middle-eastern descent against travel to the US under new visa regulations. Shortly thereafter, author Rohinton Mistry, an Indian-born Canadian, cancelled a book tour because of racial profiling at US airports that had made his trip unbearable. Canada is also profiled in a World Report in the Financial Times of October 31, available online athttp://www.ft.com/canada2002

Colombian rebels of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) continued attacks that killed three town officials in a gun attack, five people in a bombing and three soldiers in a mine field. Two drug barons, Gilberto and Miguel Rodrigues Orejuela of the Cali cocaine cartel were ordered eligible for early release from prison for good behavior, but President Uribe blocked the decision.

Refugees from Colombia are finding their way into Ecuador. A controversial oil pipeline will begin, after two years delay.

Military preparations for war against Iraq continue in the US, with open discussions about new military equipment, missile defense, city training exercises, and training for journalists.

On the list of New York World Trade Center victims of September 11, two names have been removed because they have been found alive after hearing their names read during the anniversary ceremonies.

More details about the collapse of the two towers has been released in court proceedings related to a lawsuit. See James Glanz and Eric Lipton’s article “In Data Trove, a Graphic Look at Towers’ Fall” in The New York Times, October 29, 2002.

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4. Asia Pacific

Australian police raided the homes of Muslim families suspected of ties to Islamic militant group Jemaah Islamiah, who are thought to have been involved in the Bali bombing.

China arrested 42 people in a human trafficking ring. Note an excellent five-part series on China’s future published in the Financial Times issues of October 29 through November 2-3, 2002

Debate in Hong Kong continues over a controversial new security proposal.

President Gusmao of East Timor visited the west of the island to visit the refugee camps where some 30,000 East Timorese are still living, to ask them to return home.

Indonesia continues its crackdown on Islamic organizations and its investigation into the Bali bombings, despite protests by the Muslim community. The arrest and questioning of elderly cleric Abu Bakar Bashir drew particular protests. Sketches of three suspects in the Bali bombing were released. As a result, one man is being questioned.

Malaysia and Singapore have been unable to agree on a price for water and the issue may now end up in arbitration in the Hague.

North Korea refuses to stop its nuclear arms program as long as there is a threat from the US. See the article by Richard Wolffe “You don’t look at this regime that has 60 tons of reprocessed plutonium and assume they’re bluffing” in the Financial Times, November 1, 2002, regarding the inconsistencies in US policy towards North Korea versus Iraq.

South Korea is featured in an Economist World Report published on October 29 and available online at http://www.ft.com/outhkorea2002

In Thailand, there were arson attacks on five schools, a bombing at a Buddhist temple, a bomb at a Chinese temple, and a bomb outside a hotel.

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5. Europe

The European Union has added Jemaah Islamiah (JI) to its list of terrorist organizations.

Austria is featured in an Economist World Report published on October 29 and available online at http://www.ft.com/austria2002

Bosnia was rebuked over arms sales to Iraq, forcing the resignations of two defense ministers associated with the state-owned aviation company that was involved in the sales that defied UN sanctions, and has now banned all arms sales.

Germany continues the trial of Mounir al-Motassadek. Tristina Moore describes the opening of the trial in “Muslims uneasy as Hamburg trial starts” in BBC News, October 27, online at http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/from_our_own_correspondent/2362501.stm.

Russia mourned the loss of lives following the hostage crisis in a Moscow theater that had been overtaken by Chechen rebels. The international community largely supported the raid that freed the hostages, but the use of a mysterious chemical agent to disable the people drew concern. There was condemnation over the lack of medical support and refusal to name the chemical agent that was responsible for all but two of the 118 or more deaths. This callous treatment was characterized as a leftover of the secrecy and compartmentalization that characterized the communist regime. Scientists in the US said the gas appeared to be an opiate. This was confirmed, eventually, by Russia. Renewed media restrictions are another side effect of the hostage crisis.

Spain is featured in a World Report by the Financial Times published on October 31, 2002. Available online at http://www.ft.com/spainfbl2002

Elections in Turkey seem poised to force current political parties out of power in favor of the Islamic opposition, led by the Justice and Development Party (AKP).

In the UK, the debate over how to resuscitate the Good Friday process continues. The role of Sinn Fein and its relationship with the Irish Republican Army (IRA) are in question, but calls have also been made that loyalist groups be treated in the same way. The SDLP leader has called for an end to all paramilitaries.

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6. Middle East

Iranian President Mohammad Khatami said that Iran is opposed to war with Iraq and that US foreign policy helps to make bin Laden popular. Police in Iran have detained a man accused of attempting to hijack a Mahan Air flight.

Israeli Prime Minister Sharon is still trying to build a new coalition with the extreme right after Labor left in dispute over funding for settlements.

In Jordan, a senior US diplomat, Laurence Foley, was shot dead outside his home. No one has claimed responsibility, but it seems a sign of increasing anger towards the US. For example, see Robert Fisk’s article “Murder of US envoy shows anti-Bush feeling is spreading” in The Independent, October 29, 2002, online at http://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle_east/story.jsp?story=346843. Following the shooting, Jordan has rounded up and questioned dozens of suspected Islamic extremists but as yet there is no clue to the perpetrator.

Kuwait has sealed off the border with Iraq as joint military exercises with the US are under way. More shots have been fired at US troops, but there were no injuries.

A week ago in the occupied West Bank a suicide bomber killed 3 Israeli soldiers and injured 18. In mid-week, a gun attack on a Jewish settlement killed three. Yasser Arafat’s new cabinet has been approved. His lack of impact in halting suicide bombings has been condemned by a new report issued by Human Rights Watch, “Erased in a Moment” available online at http://www.brw.org/reports/2002/isrl-pa/

Yemeni authorities have now arrested around 20 people suspected of involvement in the French oil tanker attack.

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7. South Asia

In Afghanistan, US officials are attempting to mediate clashes between two rival warlords that have presented continued security threats. Three Afghans have been freed from Guantanamo Bay and their reports of their long captivity have led to President Hamid Karzai to decide to send a team to investigate the condition of the captives still held at the US base in Cuba.

Bangladesh Prime Minister Khaleda Zia has asked that the army stop harassing civilians during the national military operation to crack down on crime.

India has had a highly successful tuberculosis treatment program. Read the report by G.R. Khatri and Thomas R. Frieden “Controlling Tuberculosis in India” in the New England Journal of Medicine, October 31, 2002

In the Indian state of Assam, an gun attack by suspected militants of the rebel National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB) killed 23 and injured 30.

Gujarat elections will take place on December 12.

Karnataka has decided to release water to Tamil Nadu, but local farmers have protested the decision and plan a hunger strike. Riot police have been sent out.

Rajasthan faces food shortages.

In West Bengal, a bomb exploded while it was being made, killing 13.

Indian-administered Kashmir’s new chief minister, Mufti Muhammad Sayeed, has escaped assassination enough to take office even while a series of attacks rocked the region.

Nepalese officials claim additional victories over the rebels. They released information that says that in the six years of the Maoist rebellion, more than 5,000 rebels, 1,200 soldiers, and 800 civilians were killed.

Mohammed Sagheer has been released from US detention in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, and returned to Pakistan.

Sri Lankan peace talks are proceeding apace as the second round of talks has begun. Tamil Tiger leader Velupillai Prabhakaran was sentenced in absentia to 200 years in prison for his role in a 1996 bombing. Rioting took place in Colombo between Sinhalese and Muslim mobs, killing one, injuring 23, and seeing a number of homes and stores burnt. A curfew was reimposed as a result of the violence. None of these events seem to have slowed down the peace talks.

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8. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare

Intelligence firm mi2g’s latest report indicates that Apple Macintosh, Compaq Tru664 and SCO Unix are the least vulnerable to hacker attack and damage from worms or viruses. Mig2 has also reported October the worst month for digital attacks since it began recording them in 1995, with pro-Islamic hackers such as USG and FBH responsible for significant attacks.

The US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) released guidelines to help protect against cyberattacks. The draft report is available online at http://csrc.nist.gov/publications/drafts.html

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9. Finance

The Islamic Financial Services Board has been launched by Bahrain, Indonesia, Iran, Kuwait, Malaysia, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Sudan. The Board will set standards for accounting and transparency that will promote Muslim beliefs in accordance with Sharia law.

A system to combat trade in blood diamonds has been endorsed by 45 nations.

Amid accusations by the United Nations that plunder of the Democratic Republic of Congo’s resources continues, the management committee of the state diamond mining company has been dismissed.

Raymond Crooks, Samuel Davidson and Gordon Davidson of Belfast have been charges with extortion and theft and intending to use the money for terrorist acts with the Ulster Defence Force.

The European Union has accused tobacco firm RJ Reynolds of money-laundering criminal proceeds. The complaint details connections with Italian and Russian Mafia, Colombian drug cartels and Balkan government officials. It is expected to file similar actions against Philip Morris and Japan Tobacco.

Reserve Bank of India will now allow foreign currency accounts in any Indian bank. Previously, Indians could only keep up to $2,000.

In the war crimes trial of Slobodan Miloesvic, evidence was heard that his Belgrade government had supplied and funded the rebel Serbs to support attacks against non-Serbs.

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10. Human Rights

Kuwait has agreed to exempt the US from the International Criminal Court.

Four detainees in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, have been released by US authorities.

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11. Law and Legal Issues

Mexican generals Arturo Acosta and Francisco Quiros Hermosillo were found guilty of protecting the Amado Carillo Guentes drug trafficking operation.

Acres International, the Canadian construction company found guilty of bribery in relation to the Lesotho Highlands Water Project, will appeal the sentence. It risks being added to the World Bank list of Ineligible Firms.

Algerians Boualem Bensaid and Smain Ait Ali Belkacem have been sentenced in France to life imprisonment for the public transportation bombing campaign in 1995 that killed eight. The two men are already serving sentences for membership in the Algerian Armed Islamic Group (GIA).

Keirm Chatty has been freed from hijacking charges in Sweden after his accidentally carrying a gun in his luggage led to false claims of a terrorist attack.

Raymond Crooks, Samuel Davidson and Gordon Davidson of Belfast have been charges with extortion and theft and intending to use the money for terrorist acts with the Ulster Defence Force.

The case of Yasser Hamdi, American imprisoned as an enemy combatant and held in solitary confinement without charge for the last six months, will be heard by the US court of appeals.

Slobodan Milosevic’s trial continues, despite his ill health. Damaging testimony from Lazarevic, an intelligence officer, testified that Milosevic was involved in expelling non-Serbs and in financing rebel Serb armies.

RJ Reynolds is accused in a civil suit filed in New York by the European Union of money-laundering criminal proceeds.

Asif Shadman has been arrested in Pakistan on suspicion of membership in the banned Lashkar-e-Jhangvi and involvement in the parcel bomb attacks in October.

Savas Ziros, accused November 17 member, has admitted to 23 murders.

Iranian Jews Javid Beit Yaqub, Faramarz Kashi and Shahrokh Paknahad imprisoned on charges of spying for Israel, have been pardoned by Iran’s supreme ruler Ayatollah Khamenei.

Mohamed Aballah Mohamed Yusuf, Nour Eddin Mohamed Dhaw and Mohamed Suleiman Bersham have been sentenced to long jail terms in Sudan for their attempted hijacking of a Saudi airliner in October.

Chechen envoy Akhmed Zakayev has been detained in Denmark on the request of Russian authorities that suspect he was involved in terrorist activities. Russia is asking for his extradition, but Denmark does not extradite to countries with a death penalty, even though Russia has had a moratorium since 1996, and also has not received the details required for an extradition.

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12. Narco-terrorism

Colombian drug barons, Gilberto and Miguel Rodrigues Orejuela of the Cali cocain cartel were ordered eligible for early release from prison for good behavior, but the decision was blocked by President Uribe.

Mexican generals Arturo Acosta and Francisco Quiros Hermosillo were found guilty of protecting the Amado Carillo Guentes drug trafficking operation.

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13. Transportation

Members of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum (APEC) agreed to build safer borders with tougher maritime and air security and stricter customs controls.

New European Union rules tighten airport security with luggage screening, tighter restricted area access, and allowing security spot-checks.

For an interesting article on airport security in the US, see Stephen Power’s article “Security Agency’s Spending Sets Off Alarms” in the Wall Street Journal, October 30, 2002.

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14. Weapons of Mass Destruction

Bosnia has been rebuked over arms sales to Iraq, forcing the resignations of two defense ministers associated with the state-owned aviation company that was involved in the sales that defied UN sanctions. Bosnia has now announced a total ban on arms, both exports and imports.

Cuba challenged the US Bush administration to prove the allegations of a biological weapons program. Calling the accusation a lie.

India hopes to increase arms sales by dropping an export blacklist.

The use of a toxic gas in the Moscow theater siege has drawn much debate. These articles offer interesting perspectives:
*William J. Broad, “Oh, What a Lovely War. If No One Dies.” In The New York Times, November 3, 2002
*Steven Lee Myers, Sabrina Tavernise and Michael Wines “From Anxiety, Fear and Hope, The Deadly Rescue n Moscoe” in The New York Times, November 1, 2002
*Scott Peterson’s article “Gas enters counterterror arsenal” in The Christian Science Monitor” October 29, 2002
*Michael Wines “Hostage Toll in Russia Over 100; Nearly All Deaths Linked to Gas” in The New York Times, October 28, 2002

US Federal Bureau of Investigation director Robert Mueller says the FBI is trying to recreate the anthrax powder used in last year’s mailing to help the investigation. The people who were prescribed antibiotics as a result of that attack complained of so many side effects that less than half finished the 60-day course of treatment.

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15. Recently Published

Benjamin, Daniel and Steven Simon. The Age of Sacred Terror. Random House.

Bennett Jones, Owen. Pakistan: Eye of the Storm. Yale University Press

Gertz, Bill. Breakdown. Regnery

Goldberg, Jeffrey “In the Party of God” a 2-part article in The New Yorker, October 21 and 28, 2002

Howard, Jane. Inside Iran” Women’s Lives. Mage Publishers

Lapham, Lewis. Theater of War. New Press.

LeBor, Adam. Milosevic” a Biography. Bloomsbury.

Pitt, William Rivers. War on Irqa. Context

Pollack, Kenneth. The threatening Storm. Random House.

Preston, Richard. The Demon in the Freezer. Random.

Scruton, Roger. The West and the Rest. ISI Books.

Weaver, Mary Anne. Pakistan: In the Shadow of Jihad and Afghanistan. Farrar, Straus and Giroux

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FEATURE ARTICLE: The Caucasus Part 1: A Terrorist Tinderbox

In October 2000, Caucasus leaders met to discuss ways to combat terrorism, the culmination of ten years of rising violence. Last week, Chechen rebels took over a theater in Russia and held nearly 700 hostages. Where did all this come from and what are the broader implications of this unrest?

In September 1991, following five years of national reforms and nationalist violence, the USSR’s newly elected Congress of People’s Deputies voted to dissolve the Soviet Union.

At that time, the Baltic republics of the former Soviet Union – Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania – allied themselves as independent countries in Europe. They are likely to join the European Union, and are closely allied with the other Baltic countries of Denmark, Finland, Germany, Iceland, Poland and Sweden, as well as Russia.

Russia has been reconstituted as the Russian Federation. The largest country in the world, it spans more than 17 million kilometers and 10 time zones, and is comprised of 89 districts.

But not all of the residents of the Russian federation are happy with this situation. In 1991, the Baltic states were not the only ones that declared independence. So did the state of Chechnya, one of the volatile areas in the Caucasus mountain region.

Just as the Baltic states felt a part of the Europe they border, the Caucasus states form a boundary between east and west, between Christianity and Islam. The Caucasus mountains, an area about the size of California, border Turkey and Iran as well as the Black and Caspian Seas (major sources of oil and other natural resources). Dozens of ethnic and linguistic groups are scattered among the rugged terrain.

The Soviet Union formally incorporated the Transcaucasus in 1922, and divided it into Georgie, Armenia and Azerbaijan in 1936. The major communities in this area cross those borders. They include Abkhazia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Chechnya, Dagestan, Georgia, Ingushetia, Kabardino-Balkaria, Karachi-Cherkessia, and North and South Ossetia. In addition to local conflicts among religious, ethnic and linguistic groups, there are regional goals to liberate the Caucasus from the Russian federation.

Abkhazia on the Black Sea is in the South Caucasus with strong ethnic ties to the Abazins and Cherkess in the North Caucasus rather than the Georgians on its southern border. Abkhazia has struggled for independence from Georgia and defeated them in the war of 1992-1993 but have not been recognized as independent. Chechen fighters helped win this war.

Armenia, a small Christian nation, borders Georgia to the north, Iran to the south and Turkey to the west. In the south, ethnic conflicts have led to violence and a bizarre administrative situation. The battle over Nagorno Karabakh, an Armenian enclave in the middle of western Azerbaijan, was only won after thousands died. Although Nagorno Karabakh is administered now by Armenians, the economic impact of the war led to a collapse from which Armenia is only now beginning to recover. To further confuse the situation, the Nakhichevan portion of Azerbaijan is inside Armenia, constituting a major border area with Iran.

Azerbaijan in the South Caucasus borders Iran on the south, the Caspian sea to the east, and Dagestan and Georgia on the north. It is famed for its natural gas sources and oil springs. Ethnically Azeris are closest to the Turks and Islam is the main religion. There are seven million Azeris in Azerbaijan, but another 24 million in Iran. One nationalist movement is for a combined state of all the Azeris. There is further conflict from those displaced from the war over Nagorno Karabakh, causing both social and economic problems for the area.

Chechnya fought and defeated the Russian Army to gain independence in a war lasting from 1994-1996. The peace settlement provided five years in which to reach a settlement, but the Russian army returned and the war began anew in 1999. Details of the Chechen conflict will be provided in the feature article next week.

Dagestan contains a dizzying mixture of ethnic groups speaking over 100 languages. The fourteen largest are balanced through constitutionally determined power-sharing. Dagestan is north of Azerbaijan, east of Georgia, and south of Chechnya. It has been used by Chechens as a supply corridor and Islamic elements in the republic have at times joined the Chechen fighters attempting to establish an Islamic state. The conflict between the Islamists in Dagestan and Russian loyalists was at its height in 1999, but continues to threaten to turn into full-fledged civil war.

Georgia is in the center of the Caucasus with the Black Sea to the west and Turkey to the south. They have struggled to control separatist movements in the Adzharia area in the southwest and South Ossetia in the north that amounted to civil war in the early years of independence, from 1991-2. Most recently, Georgia has been accused of harboring rebels from Chechnya and allied Islamic militants in the Pankisi Gorge. Russian troops have undertaken military action in this region, violating Georgian borders, but the two are now collaborating to hunt down suspected militants.

Ingushetia is in the North Caucasus west of Chechnya. In the 1940s, Stalin deported Ingush and other ethnic groups accused of collaboration to Central Asia. The Ingushetia border was redrawn to give land to North Ossetia (to the west), an act that led to a war in 1992. The Ingush are ethnically related to Chechens, who were also deported in the 1940s.

Kabardino-Balkaria is north of Georgia and Ossetia. The indigenous people of this area, the Balkars and Karachai, speak their own languages and frequently conflict with Turkic-speaking people.

Karachi-Cherkessia has even more profound language difficulties than its neighbor, Kabardino-Balkaria. The Karachi speak a Turkic-based language while the Cherkess have their own indigenous language. Ethnic tensions after presidential elections in 1999 led to a renewed desire to separate the two groups.

North Ossetia is surrounded by Russia, Kabardino-Balkaria, Karachi-Cherkessia, Georgia, and South Ossetia. Ossetians speak a Persian-based language and are mostly Christian. Efforts to unify the North and South led to a conflict in 1990.

South Ossetia is inside Georgia, while North Ossetia is in Russia. Attempts to unify with the North led to a war with newly independent Georgia from 1990-1992 in which around a thousand people died.

All of these areas experience high levels of crime and gun-related violence. Both security forces and businessmen are at high risk of kidnapping.

The low level of regional security threatens not just its residents. The neighboring countries of Turkey and Iran are already pulled between the developed west and Islamic fundamentalism. They face great difficulties in controlling internal ethnic conflicts that could very easily break out into overt violence and thence spread regionally. Such unrest in turn puts at risk plans to develop Caspian Sea oil.

Next week: a detailed look at the conflict in Chechnya.

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