Newsletter: 03/17/02

1. Africa
2. Americas
3. Asia Pacific
4. Europe
5. Middle East
6. South Asia
7. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare
8. Finance
9. Human Rights
10. Law and Legal Issues
11. Narco-terrorism
12. Transportation
13. Weapons of Mass Destruction
14. Newly Published

FEATURE ARTICLE:
Pan Am 103

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK

1. Africa

The Angolan government halted attacks on the UNITA rebels, a welcome move that may pave the way to ending the civil war. Following the death of long-time leader Jonas Savimbi, UNITA is without clear leadership, several of the rebel leaders are under arrest, and many members have dispersed throughout the countryside. It is hoped that UNITA's leadership can reform as an ongoing political force and move towards peace, rather than deteriorating into factional violence.

The Democratic Republic of Congo has pulled out of peace talks in protest at a rebel attack, purportedly backed by Rwanda.

Madagascar seems near a peaceful transition to a government led by Marc Ravalomanana after government forces, supported by tens of thousand demonstrators, refused to enforce the incumbent President Ratsiraka's attempted imposition of martial law. An excellent article, "Madagascar's Quiet Revolution" by Alastair Leithead of the BBC is available online at http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/africa/newsid_1877000/1877010.stm

Incumbent Denis Sassou Nguesso has won the Presidential election in the Republic of Congo, following the withdrawal of the main opposition candidate. The low turnout, continued military rule, and widespread fraud have given little legitimacy to these results.

In Sierra Leone, the trial of Foday Sankoh, leader of the Revolutionary United Front, has begun. Supporting the country's progress to peace, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has unblocked aid, providing the country low interest loans.

Sudan's government and the Sudan People's Liberation Army have signed an agreement to protect civilians and their infrastructure, in the first step towards ending the civil war.

Zimbabwe's presidential election is over, but the controversy surrounding it is not. The election was preceded by widespread political violence, corruption, opposition arrests, and the elimination of an independent media. Chaos followed, when polling stations were unable to keep up with attendance and elections in some areas were extended for an additional day. Final results gave incumbent President Mugabe 54% against opposition candidate Mr Tsvangirai's 40%. These results will be contested by those members of the opposition who have not yet been arrested.

International opinion has been deeply divided over this outcome. Western observers said the elections were deeply flawed. The Commonwealth observer group joined this opinion, possibly opening the way for future sanctions. The European Union is considering additional sanctions. Condemnation from the US may also lead to additional sanctions.

On the other hand, the team from the Organization for African Unity said that the elections were in general, "transparent, credible, free and fair". Namibia, Nigerian, Kenyan, Tanzanian South African and other African observers announced the results are legitimate.

South African and Nigeria did not say that the elections were free and fair, but endorsed the results. Based on the full reports of the teams in Zimbabwe, President Mbeki of South Africa will determine his formal position later this week. He has offered support, including assistance in the implementation of Mr Mugabe's land reform program and assistance in possibly developing a government of national unity, but is also under enormous international pressure to respond to the political violence and clampdown on freedoms. South Africa's position will have a significant impact on long-term outcomes in the region.

2. Americas

Voting in Colombia's parliamentary elections showed a massive rejection of both the Conservatives and Liberals, who have alternated power for the last century, in favor of more radical parties, particularly those backing Alvaro Uribe's strong anti-rebel policies.

Along the Mexican/US border, a transponder has been introduced to help reduce the time taken to cross the border.

In Peru, Abimael Guzman, leader of the Shining Path, and Victor Polay, of the Tupac Amaru Revolutionary Movement, have ended their hunger strike.

In the US, the week began with memorials commemorating the 6-month anniversary of the September 11 attacks. Homeland Security Director Tom Ridge announced a new color-coded system to identify levels of risk for terrorism earnings. Visas for 2 of the September 11 hijackers were belatedly issued to the flight school they attended, leading to renewed questions about the state of the Immigration and Naturalization Services. "Operation Anaconda", against Taliban and al Qaeda fighters in the eastern mountains of Afghanistan, has been declared a victory. And huge budget increases have been requested to support the "war against terrorism", which now includes possible first strike nuclear actions and military action against Iraq.

This combination of events and the apparent expansion on many fronts of the "war against terrorism" has led many to begin to ask President Bush and his staff to identify clear goals for this increased spending, including what the money will be spent on and how victory will be defined.

Internationally, the "Nuclear Posture Review" sent to Congress that identifies China, Iran, Iraq, Libya, North Korea, Russia and Syria as potential nuclear targets has raised widespread alarm. Vice President Cheney is on an international journey to attempt to garner support for military action against Iraq, gaining little or no traction among Middle Eastern countries who insist the issues between Israel and the Palestinians must be resolved.

3. Asia Pacific

China has attacked the US for widespread abuse of human rights, international expansion of its military presence, and its renewed threat to use nuclear devices.

King Tuanku Syed Sirajuddin of Malaysia spoke against Islamic militants in his first address to Parliament. This was viewed as a warning to the Parti Islam SeMalaysia which has called for a jihad against the US.

North Korea reacted strongly against the US nuclear strike threat and has threatened to withdraw from their nuclear arms freeze agreement.

Soldiers in Papua New Guinea, revolting against government plans for a troop reduction, continue to hold a northern military outpost.

In the Philippines, peace talks with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front were suspended amid allegations of their involvement with al Qaeda. Joint US/Philippine operations against Abu Sayyaf continue.

South Korean police raided a temple to arrest strike leaders.

Thailand has arrested 8 men on a CIA list of suspected terrorists.

4. Europe

The European Union, led by Belgium, is attempting to develop a unified policy to Iraq, that will help them respond to the US proposal for an assault on that country.

Macedonia released former ethnic Albanian rebels to finalize the peace process, which aid donors approved $515 million in aid to repair the economic damage following the conflict.

Russia, while continuing discussions for reduced nuclear weapons, has asked the US to explain its nuclear strike policy as described in the "Nuclear Posture Review". Activities against Chechen rebels have been condemned by the United Nations Commission on Human Rights.

Security measures in Spain introduced to protect the European Union economic summit were largely successful except for a clash against marchers in Barcelona.

Debate rages in the UK over the appropriate response to the US's proposed war on Iraq.

Once approved by the legislature, Yugoslavia will become a federal republic called Serbia and Montenegro, under an agreement that gives Montenegro greater self-rule rather than independence.

5. Middle East

The US has received a uniform response from the Middle Eastern countries visited by Vice President Cheney: don't talk to us about Iraq until you have done something about Israel.

This unified message may not slow down US plans for Iraq, but it has led to developments in the Israeli Palestinian conflict.

For the first time, the United Nations Security Council has supported establishment of a state of Palestine. This action was initiated by the US. In addition, US General Zinni has been sent again as a mediator and is conducting talks with both parties, leading to an Israeli retreat from some of the Palestinian territories, including Ramallah, and their agreement to talk about a truce.

Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak has warned the US they will not support military action against Iraq and urged the US to focus on resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Iraq's President Sadaam Hussein says his country can and will resist any attack by the US and suggested that the US pay as much attention to Israeli observation of UN resolutions as it has to Iraq. Mr Saddam has rellied his own support among Middle Eastern countries.

Jordan's King Abdullah has warned the US they will not support military action against Iraq and urged the US to focus on resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Libyan leader Muammer Gadaffi, undeterred by Libya's inclusion on the US nuclear target list or the defeat of the appeal against the Lockerbie bombing verdict, continues his efforts to renew relations with Western countries, continuing the dialog with the United Nations.

The peace plan proposed by Saudi Arabia has received united support after the language for full normalization of diplomatic relations with Israel was moderated.

Saudi Arabia has told the US it would not support action against Iraq and urged support for Palestinian interests. It has joined the US in freezing assets of Al-Haramain Islamic Foundations, suspected of links to al Qaeda.

Turkey's Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit Abdullah has warned the US they will not support military action against Iraq and that the economic consequences of such intervention would be grave.

In Yemen, A US Special Forces team has begun anti-terrorism training.

6. South Asia

In Afghanistan, fighting continued with "Operation Anaconda" against Taliban and al Qaeda fighters in the eastern mountains of Afghanistan, declared a victory by the US, but with warnings from Afghanistan that many more fighters remain.

Sectarian violence in Gujarat, India continued, but further violence was allayed following negotiations with Hindu hardliners, the arrest of thousands of militants, and a strong police presence that prevented additional violence around the disputed religious site of Ayodhya following a court decision banning religious activity at the site

Similar violence continues in Pakistan, with the continued shootings of Shia Muslims and a grenade attack on a Protestant church that killed five.

Sri Lankan Prime Minister Ranil Wickramasinghe visited the Jaffna peninsula to continue encouraging the peace discussions. The American Embassy in Colombo issued a report criticizing the Tamil Tigers for continuing recruitment, including of children, that could put this peace plan in jeopardy.

7. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare

The UN Immigration and Naturalization Service received a black eye this week after it issued visas to two of the September 11 hijackers for their flight school in Florida. Following assurances regarding the INS technical infrastructure, it is clear that a major overhaul of the information systems is in order.

8. Finance

Saudi Arabia has joined the US in freezing assets of Al-Haramain Islamic Foundations, suspected of links to al Qaeda.

9. Human Rights

The Inter-American Commission on Human Rights of the Organization of American States has unanimously found that treatment of detainees in the US base at Guantanamo Bay breaks international law and that each detainee should be offered individual hearings to determine their status under the Geneva convention.

The United Nations Commission on Human Rights has issued a report of Russian actions against Chechen rebels and is looking for an independent inquiry into alleged human rights abuses and war crimes.

10. Law and Legal Issues

Jamil Abdullah Al-Amin, the former Black Panther H. Rap Brown, was sentenced to life in prison without parole for the murder of a sheriff in Atlanta.

All evidence against David Carkhuff, accused of drunk driving, was thrown out by a Massachusetts, US judge who ruled that nonspecific warnings of terrorist acts did not provide grounds for a random search.

Abdel Baset Ali Mohmed al-Megrahi's appeal against his conviction in the Lockerbie bombing trial was rejected by the appeals court.

Former Yugoslavian President Solbodan Milosevic's war crimes trial continues, with prosecution testimony by Paddy Ashdown the first of a Western politician.

The trial of Foday Sankoh, leader of the Revolutionary United Front rebel group, has begun in Sierra Leone.

The Belgian court reviewing the possible indictment of Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon for war crimes in Lebanon, has postponed its decision while prosecution lawyers produce more evidence after the deaths of three potential witnesses.

Ahmed Omar Saeed Sheikh has been indicted in a US court for his alleged connection with the kidnapping and murder of journalist Daniel Pearl.

Jamil Abdullah Al-Amin, formerly H Rap Brown of the Black Panthers, was found guilty of murder in a US court in Atlanta, Georgia.

11. Narco-terrorism

Mexico arrested of alleged drug cartel boss Benjamin Arellano, but the fallout from the arrest could involve high levels of violence and challenges raised by continued government corruption.

12. Transportation

Aviation

Beginning April 15, Reagan National Airport will be restored to full service, which had been restricted since the September 11 attacks.

13. Weapons of Mass Destruction

Widespread domestic and international outrage has followed the revelation of the US's nuclear hit list naming China, Iran, Iraq, Libya, North Korea, Russia and Syria as potential nuclear targets in the "Nuclear Posture Review" sent to Congress.

14. Newly Published

Harms, Robert. The Diligent: A Voyage Through the Worlds of the Slave Trade. Basic Books

Lourie, Richard. Sakharov: A Biography. Brandeis University Press

Meredith, Martin. Our Votes, Our Guns. Public Affairs.

FEATURE ARTICLE:

Pan Am 103

On December 21, 1988, Pan Am flight 103 was full of holiday passengers and their luggage, heavy with seasonal gifts. The 243 passengers were served by a crew of 16 on board the Boeing 747. They were on their way to New York's JFK International Airport.

Leaving Heathrow Airport in London, the plane departed on the usual northern polar route. They had just settled into cruising altitude over Scotland when an explosion in the cargo hold cracked open the plane, which disintegrated in a burning arc on its way to the ground.

The cockpit landed on a farm and the engine, part of a wing, and massive quantities of jet fuel landed four miles away in the small town of Lockerbie, creating a fire in a 40 foot crater that killed 11 people. As the wreckage fell, bodies rained from the sky.

Lockerbie was devastated and 270 people were dead.

It took a week to determine that a bomb had caused the explosion, turning the examination of this tragedy into a criminal investigation. The crime scene was vast and the inquiry meticulous. By the middle of February the bomb's was pinpointed: inside a brown Samsonite suitcase.

Because the bomb had gone off in the UK and the majority of the passengers (189) were American, US and British authorities teamed up in the sweeping international investigation that followed.
Further analysis determined that a Toshiba cassette recorder had been packed with a timing device and quantities of the plastic explosive Semtex.

Suspicion quickly focused on the Iranian government. The theory was that Ayatollah Khomeini, wanted revenge for the 290 Iranian pilgrims who died on their way to Mecca when their plane had been shot down by the US Navy in the Persian Gulf. The Americans claimed it was a mistake; the Iranians vowed revenge.

Iran's revenge seemed to start with sponsorship of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine - General Council (PFLP-GC) to carry out a series of terrorist attacks on US targets. Military intelligence suggested that there had been meetings between Iranian officials and the PFLP-GC. An investigation in Germany uncovered PFLP-GC cells including a bomb-making operation with devices similar to the one used on Pan Am 103.

But in 1991, an indictment and arrest warrants were issued to two Libyans, Abdel Baset Ali Mohammed el-Megrahi and Al-Amin Khalifa Fhima, for murder, conspiracy, and breaking aviation laws.

The reasons investigators abandoned the Iran/PFLP-GC theory has never been detailed, prompting some to allege a political motive. The PFLP-GC has close ties to Syria, an ally in the Gulf War. If evidence had linked Syria to the bombing, it would have led to diplomatic and political problems. Accusing Libya, widely considered a "rogue state", was less complicated and risky.

The Libyan connection was based on following the trail of the suitcase that contained the bomb. In 1988, Megrahi and Fhimah were in Malta, working at the airport, for Libya Arab Airlines. The conspiracy charge in the indictment (which was dropped at the time of the trial) said their jobs were covers for their actual positions as Libyan intelligence agents. The indictment also stated that they had shipped the suitcase as unaccompanied baggage, starting in Malta and transferred in Frankfurt to the plane that flew to London, destined for New York - Flight 103. Clothing from the suitcase was later tied to Megrahi in Malta, with a shopkeeper as the witness.

The indictment and arrest warrants were followed by 7 years of legal wrangling over jurisdiction and interpretation of international law, particularly the Montreal convention related to air travel.
At first, Libya said it would try the accused men in Libya. The United Nations insisted that Libya comply with the warrants and, beginning in 1992, it a series of sanctions was imposed on Libya to help force compliance. The sanctions started with a ban on air travel and arms sales and in December 1993 the bans were expanded to include the Libyan oil industry and importing spare parts.

This political pressure was applied while the court cases proceeded at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in the Hague. The ICJ ruled that it could determine where the trial would be held.

Negotiations over the trial involved not just the ICJ, but also the Libyan, US and UK governments, the United Nations, mediation from South Africa and Saudi Arabia, and intervention by Nelson Mandela and Kofi Annan.

Colonel Gadafy, leader of Libya, finally accepted these international assurances that the trial would be fair and agreed that the case could be tried under Scottish law, in the neutral Netherlands. In exchange for Libya's cooperation, the sanctions were suspended. This complex arrangement set many new precedents in international law and helped strengthen the influence of the ICJ.

Megrahi and Fhimah were arrested in April 1999. The trial was postponed several times, finally beginning in May 2000, 12 years after the bombing. In place of a jury, 3 judges heard the evidence and decided the case.

The trial ended on January 18 and the verdict issued on January 31. It was unanimous: Megrahi was guilty; Fhimah was acquitted due to insufficient evidence. Megrahi was sentenced to life in prison; Fhimah was immediately set free.

In February, 2001, Megrahi's attorneys filed an appeal, based on new evidence. The request was accepted and the appeal was heard at the end of January 2002. On March 14, the 5-judge panel rejected the appeal.

In the US and UK, the conviction of Megrahi was generally seen as vindication of the 12 year investigation and investment of over 75 million pounds in the trial. In the Middle East, the unanswered questions lead others to believe this is a miscarriage of justice and that Libya, yet again, has been used as a scapegoat. A number of conspiracy theories have also circulated, ranging from the original Iran/PFLP-GC/Syria connection to allegations (investigated in the US Congress) that the bomb was facilitated by a US undercover narcotics operation.

The extremes of these views reflect the difficulties inherent in a complex, multi-national investigation, that spans a number of years and a case whose in which limited forensic evidence was left behind. This scenario is typical of international terrorist incidents.

Meanwhile, efforts also continue to encourage Libya to comply to other UN sanctions, leading to their being lifted rather than suspended, and to provide compensation to the victims of the bombing.
This range of views reflects the broader international stage that includes the conflicts in the Middle East and between Arab and Western states. In a similar context, it reflects the disparity in the perception of African versus Western leaders regarding the recent election results in Zimbabwe.
This lack of trust and inability to communicate will continue to interfere with peaceful cooperation, leaving a legacy that contributes to new violence.