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CONTENTS:

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK:

1. World
2. Africa
3. Americas
4. Asia Pacific
5. Europe
6. Middle East
7. South Asia
8. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare
9. Finance
10 Human Rights
11. Law and Legal Issues
12. Narco-terrorism
13. Transportation
14. Weapons of Mass Destruction
15. Recently Published

FEATURE ARTICLE:
Global AIDS Epidemic

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK

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1. World

December 1 is World AIDS Day. The theme this year is “Live and Let Live”. See the feature article for current details of this international epidemic and threat to security.

The World Trade Organization meeting ended without agreement on provision of inexpensive drugs for developing countries. Although discussions will continue to the end of the month, this is a blow to hopes for treatment of HIV/AIDS and other serious conditions.

United Nations inspectors arrived in Iraq and began weapons inspections under the strengthened Security Council resolution. The visits have taken place without incident. These investigations are taking place amid continued preparations on the part of the US for a war in Iraq.

The oil-for-food program, in which under UN supervision Iraq is permitted to sell oil to obtain humanitarian aid, was extended for only 9 days to resolve differences with the US that insists on expanding the list of prohibited imports.

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2. Africa

Algeria reports that Emad Abdelwahid Ahmed Alwan (“Abu Mohammed”), a leading al Qaeda member, was killed in an army ambush in September, although his body was only recently identified. Meanwhile fighting between the Algerian army and the Salafist Group for Call and Combat killed two militants.

The latest threat to peace in the Democratic Republic of Congo is an outbreak of infectious diseases, including a flu that killed more than 500 people, a hemorrhagic fever and meningitis. On a happier note, the government and rebel groups reached agreement on the principles for the transitional government, particularly regarding a security plan.

Djibouti is the subject of a new warning from the US State Department that terrorist attacks against US interests are being planned. The US has been building up the troop presence so it can support a possible invasion of Iraq and for other efforts against terrorist groups in the region. See Michael R. Gordon’s article “Millions for Defense, Barely a Penny for Djibouti” in The New York Times, December 1, 2002

Eritrea has welcomed back more than 1,200 Prisoners of War who had been held in Ethiopia for more than two years.

Continued violence in Ivory Coast has defeated attempts at a ceasefire and led to several government resignations. For the first time, rebels have attacked French forces. Two new rebel groups have made their presence known with attacks on two cities.

In Kenya, the week began with party nominations in preparation for general elections on December 27. But on Thursday, a suicide car bombing in Mombasa killed 15 and injured more than 80. The attack coincided with two missiles aimed at a departing jet. The bombing was directed against an Israeli-owned hotel that catered to largely Israeli tourists. In addition to the three suicides, nine Kenyans were killed and three Israeli tourists (two of whom were children). The missile attack failed.

Investigations are underway, but the identity of the attackers and who supported them remains unknown. Initially, a previously unknown group called Army of Palestine took credit, while known Palestinian groups insisted they were not involved. Many people have suggested the simultaneous attacks and location bear the hallmark of al Qaeda or another regional Islamic group, such as al-Ittihad al-Islamiya (Islamic Union) that operate in the area. Although a dozen people have been detained for questioning, there is no evidence that any of those questioned were involved.

The impact on the Kenyan economy will be dramatic. It is hoped that the local people will not have to bear the full burden of other peoples wars, as they have had to do before, such as in the aftermath of the 1998 attack on the US embassy in Kenya. Making recovery even more difficult in the immediate aftermath, hospital officials would not release the bodies of the dead until a fee was paid. Foreign visitors stepped in to provide the necessary funds to release the bodies and to help the funerals to go ahead.

Liberia, still engaged in arms trading and blood diamonds, will see another six months of sanctions. The sanctions apply to all groups, including the rebel Liberians United for Reconciliation and Democracy (LURD). Liberia had pointed to an end to the war with Sierra Leone as reason to remove the sanctions, but human rights groups have asked for the sanctions to be expanded to shipping registration and timber, which are also funding weapons purchases.

Nigeria is recovering from the Muslim-Christian riots that followed controversy over the Miss World pageant. The death toll reached 175. The journalist responsible for the remark that is said to have sparked the riots fled the country in face of death threats.

The precarious peace talks in Somalia have made little progress. The latest problem was that the Kenyan government who organized the meetings had not paid the host hotel and the delegates were not fed for several meals.

South Africa experienced another bombing, this time damaging a bridge. There were no casualties. Responsibility is unknown but it is being attributed to white right-wing extremists. A series of raids on homes and farms across the country were conducted as part of the investigations into the bombings.

Uganda is offering a reward of about $11,000 for information leading to the capture or death of Joseph Kony, the leader of the rebel Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA). An amnesty to other rebel leaders is still open.

Zimbabwe’s food crisis is rapidly deteriorating, where land policies, political disruption, and AIDS have exacerbated the drought. The path to a failed state is clear; international humanitarian intervention is urgently needed.

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3. Americas

An excellent report in the Financial Times “Kidnapping spreads across Latin America” by James Wilson and others (November 29, 2002) provides current statistics and regional trends. It links the rise in kidnapping to the deteriorating economies.

Colombia’s right-wing paramilitary United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC) has declared a unilateral ceasefire and has been engaging in secret talks with the government regarding possible peace negotiations. President Uribe’s security efforts were dealt a blow by the constitutional court that has limited certain steps (see law, below).

Former left-wing coup leader Lucio Gutierrez has been elected President of Ecuador.

Clashes in Haiti between supporters and opponents of President Aristide continue to escalate, including civilian demonstrators and organized gangs clashing in street violence.

In the US, President Bush has signed the Homeland Security bill into law. If the plan is executed as currently designed, the new Department will have some 170,000 employees from 22 existing agencies and a budget of around $40 billion. A terrorism insurance bill to establish the government as the insurer of last resort was also passed.

Meanwhile, more studies question the current state of readiness when the US faces a new attack. The Partnership for Public Warning is concerned with developing a coordinated national warning system. The Congressional Office of Compliance found significant workplace safety issues. The Government Reform Committee believes that soldiers’ gear will not protect them against biochem agents. The General Accounting Office found that at least 105 foreign nationals suspected of terrorism were given visas this year. Henry Kissinger will head the expanded investigation into intelligence failures.

Further controversy over the relationship between the US and Saudi Arabia continues. The US Bush administration has expressed support for the Saudis and has praised their efforts in the war on terror. Information regarding the development of oil-based US energy policy continues to be withheld, but it is clear that no efforts to reduce US energy consumption and dependency on imported oil, including that from Saudi Arabia, are under consideration.

In New York, a software company employee in Long Island was at the center of an identity theft ring responsible for stealing personal information from 30,000 people (See Cyberterrorism, below)

In Virginia, environmental activist groups are eyed in terrorism-related activities. People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals (PETA) ran a television campaign portraying a terrorist takeover of a supermarket that eventually reveals a turkey demanding people stop eating meat. On a more serious note, the Earth Liberation Front is being investigated for vandalism using glass-etching chemicals and tire slashing against Sports Utility Vehicles (SUVs).

The growing rift in Venezuelan society is pitting supporters of President Chavez against his opponents, leading to the spectacle of police and soldiers at conflict. Fifteen dissident generals have been discharged from the army.

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4. Asia Pacific

Australia’s drought has worsened, leading to hundreds of cases of water theft. The worsening drought has not distracted people from Prime Minister John Howard’s support for a war against Iraq. Some 15,000 peace marchers demonstrated in Sydney and other cities and additional protests are planned.

North Korea says that they have the right to possess nuclear weapons, but that the US deliberately distorted their statement of this right to suggest the Koreans were engaged in a weapons program. Pakistan has denied helping in any such program. The UN has asked North Korea to allow inspections.

Indonesian police have been interrogating the alleged leader of the Bali bombing, Imam Samudra, who has apparently been providing information about connections to other participants in the bombing, and connections with al Qaeda and regional Islamic groups.

A peace agreement due to be signed between the Indonesian government and the Free Aceh movement still faces obstacles particularly around turning in their weapons, citing the experience of the East Timor massacres to explain their lack of trust in the military.

Malaysia have announced the arrests of more than 70 Islamic militants, including three claiming to be part of a suicide bombing squad as well as members of groups including the Jemaah Islamiah and the Malaysian Militant Group (KMM)

Threats against foreign interests in the Philippines have led to the closure of the Australian and Canadian embassies and the European Union’s diplomatic mission.

South Koreans are expressing their anger towards the US military presence in the country following the acquittal of two soldiers responsible for the deaths of two Korean girls in a traffic accident. There have been a number of protests, including one that broke through a fence at a military base, and some restaurants are refusing to serve Americans.

Turkmenistan’s President, Saparmurad Niyazov, escaped an attempted assassination, allegedly plotted by former government officials. Some 16 people have been arrested in connection with the gun attack.

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5. Europe

The EU has agreed a plan to repatriate thousands of Afghan refugees, beginning next year. For a discussion of this and the broader issues of immigration in Europe, see coverage in the Financial Times of November 29, including “EU Agrees Plan to Send Asylum Seekers Back to Afghanistan” by Daniel Dombey and “Populist Pressure Won’t Derail Expansion... It Will Mean Fewer Illegal Immigrants, Not More” by John Lloyd.

Belgium suffered two days of riots in Antwerp, triggered by the death of a teacher, Mohammed Achrak. His death has been called racially motivated.

The UN Mission in Bosnia Herzegovina has warned of an increase in human trafficking, particularly in the movement of women and young girls from eastern Europe to Bosnia, where they are forced into prostitution and moved into western Europe. These allegations are buttressed by Human Rights Watch in, “Hopes Betrayed: Trafficking of Women and Girls to Post-Conflict Bosnia and Herzegovina for Forced Prostitution Report”, online at http://hrw.org/reports/2002/bosnia

Cyprus has found a new home in Mauritania for Abdullah Daoud, the last of the 13 Palestinians who had been sent into exile as part of an agreement to end the May siege of the Church of Nativity in Bethlehem.

The French refugee camp, Sangatte, is preparing to close. See reports by Elaine Sciolino, “Refugees Out in the Cold in Sight of Dover’s Cliffs” in The New York Times, November 28, 2002 and Pam O’Tooles’ “Sangatte’s Enduring Appeal” in BBC News, November 30, online at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/from_our_own_correspondent/2528653.stm

French police are investigating leading cleric Kamel Lakhram for possible connections to Richard Reid, the confessed “shoe bomber” or other Islamic militants.

Germany has reiterated its opposition to war with Iraq but in an effort to ease tensions with the US has said it would allow the use of military bases in Germany. They have also agreed to sell military systems to Israel. For a recent world report on Germany, see the Financial Times of November 25, online at http://www.ft.com/germany2002

There was an attempted hijacking of an Alitalia flight from Bologna to Paris. Stefano Savorani, a former policeman with a history of mental illness, was arrested by French police.

Russian President Vladimir Putin vetoed a controversial media law that would have imposed significant restrictions. The law was proposed following the Chechen rebel takeover of the Moscow theater in October. Meanwhile, Russia announced a plan that Chechens displaced by the conflict who have taken refuge at a camp in Ingushetia and elsewhere would be forcibly evicted and the camps shut down.  Facing tens of thousands of displaced people, the EU, UN and human rights groups protested this plan. Russia has now said that it will not force the refugees to leave, although there is significant pressure on them to do so.

Turkey has lifted the state of emergency in the last two provinces where it was still in place, imposed 15 years ago during the violent conflict with the Kurdish population. The easing of restrictions on Kurds is one of the requirements for membership in an expanded EU.

In Northern Ireland, eight people were arrested on suspected involvement with loyalist paramilitary activities, particularly associates with the Ulster Defence Association (UDA).  Six suspected republican paramilitaries were arrested for gun smuggling and after investigation four have been charged.

Yugoslavia has denied allegations that it was involved in illegal arms shipments to Iraq.

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6. Middle East

November 29 was the International Day of Solidarity with Palestinian People. The United Nations marked the day by asking for the prompt resumption of political negotiations to achieve a peaceful two-state solution.

The UN and Israel are at odds regarding the shooting of a British aid worker who was shot in the back by Israeli troops who also delayed an ambulance, resulting in his death. Although Israeli officials claimed that shots had been fired, investigations revealed this was not the case. They have also protested the armed raid and detention of another aid worker at her home. The UN Relief and Works Agency for Refugees says that in addition to this 23 staff members were being held without charges. UNWRA has asked for explanations and assess to their staff but these requests have been refused. The UN says that these actions reveal disdain for the international framework under which humanitarian assistance is provided.

In the occupied Gaza Strip, Israeli soldiers shot and killed a 16-year-old Palestinian boy. Another man was shot dead and three homes destroyed during an incursion north of Gaza. In the rubble, a second body was found; that of a 70-year-old man who had been unable to leave the house before it was demolished. At a crossing point near Gaza, a suspected suicide bomber dies when his car, packed with explosives, blew up as Israeli soldiers fired on it.

Iranian hardliners stages a demonstration of some 15,000 strong, countering the widespread reformist student demonstrations. Their demonstration threatens the return of paramilitary violence last seen in 1999. (See Human Rights Watch report “Assault on Iranian Students Condemned” online at http://www.hrw.org/press/1999/jul/iran0713.htm. The student demonstrations, which have now been banned, were sparked by the death sentence passed on academic and war veteran Hashem Aghajari. This sentence is now under review.

In approved protests, hundreds of thousands of Iranians marked their solidarity with Palestinians on the 55th anniversary of the UN resolution that created the state of Israel.

As voting for the leadership of the Likud party took place, six Israelis were killed in a grenade and shooting attack outside a polling station. (Prime Minister Sharon was reelected party leader.)

Shortly after, three Israelis on holiday in Kenya were killed in a suicide car bombing. (See Africa, above.) Although not the first terrorist attack against Israeli civilians or interests abroad, targeting a tourist resort is seen as escalating the threat.

In southern Jordan, renewed violence in the town of Maan has left two dead.

New strains in US-Saudi relations surfaces after accusations that the wife of the Saudi ambassador to the US had provided charitable donations that ended up with two of the September 11 hijackers. The US Bush administration stressed their belief that the Saudis were strong supporters in the war on terrorism. For analysis and background material, read Simon Tisdall’s “Sleeping with the enemy” in The Guardian, November 28 (http://www.guardian.co.uk/Print/0,3858,4556603,00.html) and Roula Khalaf “The prince and princess whose Washington fairytale went sour” in the Financial Times, November 30-December 1, 2002

In the occupied West Bank, Israeli soldiers closed access to the Church of the Nativity in Bethlehem and searched four mosques for suspected militants as well as continuing house-to-house searches. These continued actions were prompted by last week’s suicide bombing.

Also in the West Bank, Israeli soldiers fired on crowds of children throwing stones at the soldiers while walking home from school. On 8-year-old boy was killed. Alah Sabbagh of al-Aqsa Martyr’s Brigade and Imad Nasharti of Hamas, two of Israel’s most wanted militants, were killed by an Israeli aircraft missile fired on a house.

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7. South Asia

Afghanistan’s perilous state of insecurity is evident in continued violence between warlords and attacks on aid workers, peacekeepers, and US forces. Despite this, the UN has reported progress in disarmament. The UN Security Council has unanimously approved a one-year extension of the International Security Assistance Force.

Bangladesh rejected accusations by India that they are harboring Islamic militants.

India rejected accusations by Nepal that it harbors Maoist rebels.

India has stressed its opposition to war on Iraq, pointing out good relations between India and Iraq and citing the drastic economic consequences of such a war.

In the state of Assam, the Indian army has killed four suspected Bodo separatist rebels of the outlawed National Democratic Front of Bodoland. Karnataka state continues negotiations with the bandit Veerappan over the kidnapped politician H Nagappa. The state of Tamil Nadu is searching the forest for members of a radical Naxalite group. In Tripura state, the National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT) has said it will no longer recruit female recruits, after they had found it necessary to execute three guerillas that had tried to elope.

In Indian-administered Kashmir, Islamic militants attacked a Hindu temple killing 14.  The next day, three people were shot dead and, in a separate incident, three children killed in a bombing. The incidents were attributed to separatists. A missile attack against All India Radio was claimed by the Al-Badr militant group; there were no casualties.

In Nepal, authorities claimed additional progress against Maoist rebels while thousands demonstrated in protest at the King’s assumption of executive powers previously held by the parliament.

Pakistan has used information uncovered by following the trail of the latest bin Laden tape to investigate suspected terrorists and militant groups. A number of suspects have been detained. The US FBI is assisting in the investigations and interrogations.

Peace talks in Sri Lanka continue. The government and the Tamil Tigers have asked for economic support to help rebuild following the long conflict. The Tigers have lifted their demand for a separate state, instead settling for regional autonomy.

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8. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare

The largest identity theft case in US history has been uncovered. An employee at a Long Island software company used his position to steal credit histories of more than 30,000 people and use that information to steal funds on credit cards, false loans, and so on. Initial losses were at least $2.7 million. Many incidents may not yet have been identified, and this total is likely to rise significantly. Three men have been arrested in connection with this case.

In the November 25 issue, Computerworld published an interview with Sheikh Omar Bakri Muhammad, the founder of Jamaat al-Muhajirun. In it he affirms the use of cyberattacks to achieve militant aims. (http://www.computerworld.com) The author, Dan Verton, also discusses a Malaysian virus writer called Melhacker (real name possibly Vladimor Chamlkovic) who claims to have developed a super worm that would be released if there is an attack on Iraq.

Simulations conducted by Ohio State University indicate Internet vulnerabilities to attack that are similar to that seen with air traffic control systems.

A new computer worm called Winevar has begun spreading to Windows computers via email attachments. The virus can destroy computer files and alter or launch other applications. It is notable for insulting the foolish user who opened the attachment.

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9. Finance

The US consul to Jordan, Les Hickman, has been suspended from his post following suspicion of involvement in visa fraud. Another man was arrested in Jordan on suspicion of selling US visas.

The Broadway National Bank in New York was fined $4 million for laundering drug money by not alerting the government to suspicious transactions.

Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi refused to answer any questions in his reluctant appearance before a closed hearing in connection with the trial of an associate accused of Mafia money-laundering.

Liberia has begun to replace sanctioned blood diamonds with shipping registrations and timber to fund weapons purchases. The United Nations has extended existing sanctions for another six months but has not extended them to the new sources of funding.

For important details into one area of Saudi Arabian business dealings, see Glenn R. Simpson’s article “Tracing the Money, Terror Investigators Run Into Mr. Qadi” in The Wall Street Journal, November 26, 2002.

Paul Kaihla has written an interesting article “Forging Terrorism: How rapid advances in scanning, printing, and other technologies have made counterfeiting a potent new weapon of holy war.” published in Business 2.0, December 2002/January 2003

For an interesting perspective on why bin Laden remains at large, see John Tierney’s article “Even for $25 Million, Still No Osama bin Laden” in The New York Times, December 1, 2002

The United Nations has added the Benevolence International Foundation, the Benevolence International Fund and Bosanska Idealna Futura to the list of sanctioned organizations in connection with al Qaeda and Taliban. This move follows the steps taken in the US last week.

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10. Human Rights

November 30 was marked as the first World Day Against the Death Penalty. An international coalition of human rights groups used the occasion to bring pressure on countries that still have a death penalty. These include the top four: China (2,468 executions), Iran (139), Saudi Arabia (79) and the United States (66).

Burma’s troubled Shan state hosted a visit by opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi. Her visit follows accusations of widespread human rights abuses by the Burmese army against the Shan people.

China, now with the second largest number of Internet users after the US, has been accused by Amnesty International of creating a new category of “prisoners of conscience” by its actions to control access to and use of information on the Internet. The report, “State Control of the Internet in China” in athttp://www.amnesty.org

In South Africa, 2,000 men marched to demonstrate male opposition to rape against women and children.

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11. Law and Legal Issues

General Janko Bobetko, wanted for war crimes, has been declared medically unfit for trial by a Croatian court.

Colombia’s constitutional court has ruled that certain of President Uribe’s expanded security measures are unconstitutional. These include the wider search and arrest powers without judicial intervention that had been granted the military in two designated security zones. The court also ruled against restricting access to these areas.

Redouane Daoud, who escaped from Dutch jail in June, and four other suspected Islamic militants have been arrested in France.

Eurico Guterres has been convicted on human rights charges in connection with a 1999 massacre in East Timor. The Indonesian court sentenced him to ten years jail.

Rabah Kadre, held in the UK on terrorism charges, has been named on an international warrant issued in France. The warrant is in connection with an investigation on a planned attack in December 2000.

Asep Kuswani, Adios Salava, Leonita Martins and Endar Priyanto were found not guilty by an Indonesian court for their alleged role in crimes against humanity in East Timor in 1999.

Leung Kwok-hung, Lo Wai-ming and Fung Ka-keung of Hong Kong have been convicted of organizing an unauthorized protest. The pro-democracy activists had argued that laws requiring police approval violated their human rights.

Dyab Abu Jahjah, head of the militant Arab European League (AEL) has been charged in connection with activities surrounding the riots in Antwerp, Belgium. More then 100 others were also arrested during the violence and some twenty are still being held.

Canadian Michel Jalbert is on bail after being arrested and jailed for five weeks for crossing the US-Canadian border to get gas without checking with the border patrol. His release required intervention by US Secretary of State Colin Powell. This case illustrates growing tensions between the two neighbors, described in Eric Beaudan’s article “Restrictions grow along US-Canada” (Christian Science Monitor, November 28-9, 2002) and Sarah Schweitzer “Border arrest fuels Canada ire over US security” (Boston Globe, November 26, 2002).

Steven Chin Leung has been convicted of fraud after faking his own death following the September 11 attacks. The New York court has sentenced his to four years in prison.

Zaiba Mail and Bruno Sorrentino, journalists with the UK television station Channel Four News, were arrested in Bangladesh on sedition charges.

The Moscow City Government is being sued by three of the survivors of last month’s theatre siege. They are asking for $2.5 million damages under a federal terrorist compensation law. Earlier, authorities had proposed individual payments of some $1,570 for each surviving hostage or $3,140 to relatives of the dead.

Mounir el Motassadeq’s terrorism trial in Hamburg, Germany, continues with testimony regarding connections to al Qaeda training camps in Afghanistan.

Zacarias Moussaoui’s trial will include evidence provided by French and German governments. They had previously refused to cooperate because the US uses the death penalty, which they have long abolished, but under a new agreement, the US has assured them that no information would be used by the US to obtain a penalty of death.

Patricia O’Kane, Paul Scott, Sean Burns and Maria Mercia Brogan of Northern Ireland have been arrested on charges of buying and importing arms for the use of the Irish Republican Army (IRA).

The Saville Inquiry into the events of Bloody Sunday heard testimony that two shootings were not reported to headquarters prior to their entry into the Bogside

Stefano Savorani was arrested by French police after attempting to hijack an Alitalia flight. Savorani, a former Italian policeman has a history of mental illness.

Orlando Triana, Agustin Lopez and Aroldo Buitrago, accused members of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), were arrested on charges of kidnapping and murdering three US human rights activists in February 1999.

Mitar Vasiljevic has been sentenced, by the International War Crimes Tribunal in the Hague, to twenty years prison for crimes against humanity in connection with his activities in Bosnia in the early 1990s.

Chen Wenshu and Yang Yiyang of China are on trial for allegedly leading a ring of human traffickers. Another 40 people are charged for their roles in the smuggling operations.

Akhmed Zakayev, a leading Chechen diplomat, will remain in jail in Denmark as the court waits for Russia to present its full case for his extradition.

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12. Narco-terrorism

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13. Transportation

The attempted missile attack on a passenger airline as it left Kenya (coinciding with the hotel bombing; see Africa) has drawn attention to this threat. Although impractical to make planes safe against such an attack, the difficulty of hitting the target with a missile is much greater than that of traditional bombs. Limits on the widespread proliferation of missile launchers would be the best defense.

On an Alitalia flight from Bologna to Paris Stefano Savorani, a former Italian policeman with a history of mental illness, attempted to hijack the plane. He claimed to be a member of al Qaeda. The plane was diverted to Lyon and the passengers released in two groups, then Mr. Savorani was arrested by the French police.  He had conducted a similar attack in 1999. No explosives or weapons were found on the plane.

The UK is considering proposals to add armed undercover officers to passenger planes to help prevent hijackings. Some number of armed pilots may begin to emerge on commercial US flights, following recent legislation approving the practice.

In Boston, Massachusetts, US, the airport has begun to test biometric authentication through scanning the iris of the eyes of employees in particularly sensitive areas of the airport.

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14. Weapons of Mass Destruction

The Economist’s November 30 issue features two excellent articles on biological weapons: “The spores of war” and “Hide and seek”

Canada plans to buy enough smallpox vaccine to inoculate all residents.

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15. Recently Published

• Atkinson, Rick. An Army At Dawn” The War in North Africa, 1942-1943. Henry Holt
• Beschloss, Michael. The Conquerors: Roosevelt, Truman and the Destruction of Hitler’s Germany. Simon and Schuster.
• Latimer, Jon. Alamein. Harvard University Press.
• MacMillan, Margaret. Paris 1919. Random House
  

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FEATURE ARTICLE: Global AIDS Epidemic

“Live and let live” is the theme of World AIDS Day 2002.

UNAIDS has worked with international entertainers and educators to compile a series of programs designed to help overcome the stigma of HIV infection and discrimination against those infected. Participants include actress Whoopi Goldberg and the HIV-positive Muppet Kami. MTV channels are presenting a series of documentaries called “Staying Alive” and a Staying Alive concert in South Africa featuring Sean Combs, Alicia Keys, Usher, South African performers and others.

In advance of World AIDS Day, the United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the World Health Organization (WHO) released a joint report, the “AIDS Epidemic Update”. They tell us that:
* 42 million people are infected with HIV.
* The numbers of infected men and women are almost equal
* 3.2 million are children under the age of 15.
* 3.1 million people died of AIDS in 2002
* There were 5 million new infections in 2002

And summarizes the future as follows:
“Best current projections suggest that an additional 45 million people will become infected with HIV in 126 low- and middle-income countries (currently with concentrated or generalized epidemics) between 2002 and 2010 -- unless the world succeeds in mounting a drastically expanded, global prevention effort. More than 40 percent of those infections would occur in Asia and the Pacific (currently accounts for about 20 percent of new annual infections).”

The report goes on to discuss regional prevalence and trends in HIV infection, with particular attention to trends that provide early warning of new outbreaks and experience with prevention and treatment in existing regions.  They say that “In several countries experiencing the early stages of the epidemic, significant economic and social changes are giving rise to conditions and trends that favour the rapid spread of HIV -- for example, wide social disparities, limited access to basic services and increased migration.”

The growth of the epidemic in China and India is of particular concern. The epidemic reached these regions only in the late 80s but there are already more than a million HIV-infected people in China and at least one percent of the population in India. Each country has a population of over a billion and projections for the spread of the disease indicates that without immediate intervention, cases in India and China could dwarf the current disaster.

The challenge in India is to overcome widespread ignorance of the disease, particularly in rural areas. The good news is that in local areas that have educational programs, the spread of the disease has been greatly reduced.

China’s problem of lack of education is compounded by failures in the public health system that has encouraged needle sharing. Paid blood donations are responsible for the massive spread in Henan province. To mark World AIDS Day, a national campaign was inaugurated to send volunteers across the country to provide information about disease prevention.

Indonesia has seen a rapid rise in HIV infections tied to a sharp rise in injected drug use. Although the vast majority of injected drug users are male, they are increasingly infecting their female partners. The infection rate in Cambodia, with the highest HIV prevalence, has stabilized following an educational campaign and consistent condom use by sex workers.

Infections in the former Soviet Union (including the Baltic states, the Russian Federation and the Central Asian republics of in Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan) began in the early 1990s.  These areas now see the highest rates of new infections, mainly attributed to injecting drug users and their partners. These areas have a low rate of knowledge of AIDS and few treatment facilities.

Sub-Saharan Africa is by far the worst affected, with almost 30 million cases. Infections began in the late 1970s, but, unlike wealthy countries with as long a history, the lack of prevention and treatment means that the epidemic will continue to worsen. South Africa, though not the poorest, is the worst affected. In Botswana, Lesotho, Swaziland and Zimbabwe, one in three people are infected. AIDS has contributed to the worsening famine in these areas.

There are some signs of improvement:
“Responses that involve and treat young people as a priority pay off, as evidence from Ethiopia, South Africa, Uganda and Zambia shows. HIV prevalence levels among young women in Addis Ababa declined by more than one-third between 1995 and 2001. Among pregnant teenagers in South Africa, HIV prevalence levels shrank a quarter between 1998 and 2001. Prevalence remains unacceptably high, but these positive trends confirm the value of investing in responses among the young.”

The report notes a disproportionate infection rate among young women relative to men, citing the causes as:
* Discrimination in access to education, employment, credit, health care, land and inheritance”
* Downward economic trends leading to more subordinate relationships with older men who are more likely to be infected
* A lack of knowledge about HIV/AIDS

The report does not cite violence against women, but it is also a contributing factor, and has drawn attention recently with a large demonstration in South Africa to draw attention to the problem.

In Latin America and the Caribbean, epidemics are established and also call for determined response to counter the spread. The Caribbean is second only to Africa in the high prevalence rates. Haiti has an adult prevalence of more than 6 percent; the Bahamas 3.5 percent. Brazil, with its program of inexpensive anti-retroviral drugs, has shown the way in providing care to infected people.

The Middle East and North Africa have limited surveillance systems, and the report says that “lingering denial among both social and political leaders in some countries provides the epidemic with an ideal environment for continued spread”.

And finally, in reviewing high-income countries, the report cites long-term survival but says that “A rise in unsafe sexual behavior underscores the need to resist complacency and revitalize prevention programmes to access the millions of young people who reach sexual maturity each year”. And further that “Heterosexual transmission of HIV accounts for an increasing share of new infections, with young, disadvantaged people at particular risk”.

The report concludes with a discussion of the humanitarian crises to which HIV/AIDS contributes, including southern Africa’s food crisis and HIV/AIDS in conflict settings.

HIV/AIDS in conflict setting is one of the ways in which the epidemic presents a security threat. In this context, the report cites the increases in displaced people, the mixing of civilian and military populations, and human rights abuses. For example:

“A well-documented example is that of Rwanda, where genocide and war stoked an HIV/AIDS epidemic that spread from cities to the countryside. Prior to the 1994 genocide, studies had shown HIV prevalence rates to be high in some urban areas (10 percent and higher) but low (just over 1 percent) in rural areas. By 1997, a well-designed survey revealed an HIV prevalence of about 11% in both urban and rural populations. During the genocide, more than 3 percent of women had been raped, almost half of them teenagers. (Of the women who had been raped, 17 percent tested HIV-positive, compared to 11 percent of those who had not been raped).

Indeed, rape is frequently used as a weapon of war and terror, primarily against women and girls. In the Balkan conflict, for example, an estimated 30–40 000 women were raped. A study in 2001 found that 9 percent of women displaced by armed conflict in 1997–1999 in Sierra Leone (50000–64000 women) had been sexually assaulted by combatants. The study concluded that war-related rape and other forms of sexual violence were committed on a widespread basis among internally displaced persons. A 1998 study revealed that the prevalence of war-related sexual assault was even higher in Liberia—15 percent.*”
“* The statute of the International Criminal Court has declared rape a crime against humanity.”

Other statistics:
Uganda in 1997 national prevalence was 9.5 percent but among soldiers it was 27 percent
In Sierra Leone before fighting began in 1995 infections among sex workers were 26.7 percent; by 1997 they had reached 70.6 percent

In short, there is a strong correlation between violence, instability, movement of people, desperation, and failed countries -- and increasing exposure to HIV/AIDS. Ulf Kristoffersson, the UNAIDS Humanitarian Coordinator, summarized this in a presentation to the Intersessional Meeting of the Human Security Network in January 2002:
“The HIV epidemic has unquestionably become one of the major threats to human security today. This manifests itself through limiting participation in income-generation, undermining the quality of life, and destroying life, to the extent that stability is threatened, within and between states. The epidemic attacks economic security, social security but also military security where military personnel, peacekeepers and peace observers rank among the groups most affected by HIV/AIDS. Security, however defined, is at issue. HIV has become a significant challenge to the basic security of people in all walks of life and as such must be tacked at the national, the regional and the global level....”

Additional Resources:
*BBC News AIDS Around the World http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/static/in_depth/world/2001/aids/default.stm
*Global AIDS Alliance http://www.globalaidsalliance.org/
*Harvard AIDS Institute http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/organizations/hai/
*International Labor Organization http://www.ilo.org/public/english/protection/trav/aids/
*Stop Global AIDS http://www.stopglobalaids.org/
*UNAIDS http://www.unaids.org/ and Report on the Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic 2002 at http://www.unaids.org/barcelona/presskit/barcelona%20report/contents_html.html
*World AIDS Day http://www.unaids.org/worldaidsday/2002/index.html
*World Bank http://www1.worldbank.org/hiv_aids/
*World Health Organization http://www.who.int/hiv/en/
*You and AIDS: The HIV/AIDS Portal for South and North East Asia http://www.youandaids.org/epidemic/nap_india.asp

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