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AUTHOR:
TerrorismCentral Editorial Staff

TITLE:
TerrorismCentral Newsletter - February 09, 2003

SOURCE:
TerrorismCentral, February 09, 2003

TEXT:

Oil is not the only underlying reason for the persistent drive towards war against Iraq; the “military-industrial complex” must also be fed. This week’s feature article reproduces in full the US Department of State’s Bureau of Verification and Compliance Fact Sheet on their just released report “Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers”. Other news on Iraq, North Korea and the rest of the world is found in the News Highlights.

CONTENTS:

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK:

1. World
2. Africa
3. Americas
4. Asia Pacific
5. Europe
6. Middle East
7. South Asia
8. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare
9. Finance
10 Human Rights
11. Law and Legal Issues
12. Narco-terrorism
13. Transportation
14. Weapons of Mass Destruction
15. Recently Published

FEATURE ARTICLE:
The US Department of Homeland Security


NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK


1. World

The US Secretary of State's special address on Iraq to the United Nations has had little effect. It's not surprising. The issue on Iraq has never really turned on questions of fact but rather on issues of public policy. There are broad areas of agreement: that Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein has been guilty of gross violations of human rights and international law; that the country has hidden stocks of biological and chemical agents and some delivery mechanisms; and that they have been interested in developing a nuclear capability. The case for overcoming these evils is not strengthened by unnecessary speculation into assertions of ties to al Qaeda or active development of non-existent fissile material. Instead, stretching beyond the accepted facts, and attempting to bolster a case using outdated intelligence and unacknowledged open source materials demonstrates the weaknesses in the case for immediate war. The legitimate debate over relative risks and an effective analysis of the costs of an action versus their benefits deserves to be undertaken without prejudice and with the involvement of the global community. After all, should there be a war in Iraq, its impact will be felt around the world. It is both appropriate and necessary that the world collectively determine the appropriate courses of action.

Many believe there are more immediate threats, a point that has been forcefully made by Germany, France, Russia, China, South Korea, Egypt, Jordan... the list goes on and on. North Korea's announcement that it is willing to launch preemptive nuclear strikes against the US, and the deteriorating security in Afghanistan, are just two of the other areas of international concern described further in the relevant sections below.

Another critical area of risk is the HIV/AIDS pandemic. The UN-sponsored Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria has run out of money because promised aid has not been delivered. They have launched another effort to get donor countries to contribute, and the effort is on the agendas of a number of forthcoming economic meetings. Meanwhile, negotiations have begun again over the attempt to offer cheap medicines for poor countries through a World Trade Organization agreement.

Finally, in another call for alarm regarding the future, the UN has published "Poverty and Exclusion among Urban Children" that demonstrates the degree of chronic poverty and life-threatening environments in which tens of millions of children live around the world. (http://www.unicef.org/newsline/2003/03pr09urban.htm)


2. Africa

The African Union held its first extraordinary meeting. Thirty heads of state or government met for two days that included agreement on a new peace and security council and discussions of many of the conflicts facing Africa today, the continent's debt crisis, and their strong opposition to a war on Iraq expected to worsen the economic situation.

In Angola, the interim leader of UNITA, General Paulo Lukamba Gato announced he would not run for election this year.

In the Central African Republic, some 70 percent of the country is under the control of the rebel Movement for the Liberation of Congo (MLC), with about a thousand in the capital city. President Ange-Felix Patasse has asked for assistance from France, similar to the intervention in Ivory Coast.

Democratic Republic of Congo continues voluntary demobilization; another group of former soldiers has been repatriated to Rwanda.

Growing violence in Ivory Coast has focused on continued protests against the peace accord and attacks by government loyalists and tribal militiamen against foreigners and Muslims.

The Liberians United for Reconciliation and Democracy (LURD) rebel group has continued its advance against government forces. Their advance through western Liberia has been accompanied by indiscriminate killing of civilians and hundreds of refugees. Humanitarian aid has been cut off because of the heavy fighting.

In Nigeria, the business district of Lagos suffered a massive explosion that has killed at least 44 people and injured at least a hundred. Looters took advantage of the destruction of a bank. Investigations are underway to understand whether this was a deliberate attack or an accident with explosives. Eight people have been arrested in connection with the explosion.

Elsewhere in the south and northwest of Nigeria, ethnic clashes and pre-election violence have claimed dozens of lives and led to a curfew in one area of the Delta.

In Somalia, the peace talks continue to be disrupted by fighting among the parties. Kenyan authorities are moving the talks from a suburb to be closer to Nairobi where the Kenyan authorities can exert more control, particularly over the delegates' expenses.

The government of Sudan and the rebel Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) have signed a new agreement that strengthens the ceasefire by providing for a monitoring committee.


3. Americas

In Colombia's capital city, Bogota, a powerful car bomb exploded in front of an exclusive nightclub. At least 33 were killed and more than 160 injured. The government has blamed leftist rebels of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) but they have not claimed responsibility. FARC normally operates in their rural strongholds and if this proves to be their work it is a dangerous escalation of the conflict, moving it to urban areas. FARC was also blamed for blowing up a portion of the Cano Limon oil pipeline. US Special Forces have recently arrived in the area to begin training local soldiers in guarding the pipeline.

In Mexico, Zapatista rebels continue to blockade a guest ranch in Chiapas state. The government is considering purchasing the property to end the conflict.

In the US prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, about 25 new prisoners from Afghanistan arrived last week, bringing the total number to 650. The camp continues to attract criticism for the long-term detentions of people without charge who have not been treated in accordance with international law. The recent suicide attempts on the part of five prisoners in the last three weeks (a total of 15 in the past year) have drawn renewed attention to their condition.

The US budget proposal submitted by President Bush has drawn more attention domestically. One of the battlegrounds will be around expenses for security versus defense. Of immediate concern are the shortfalls in state budgets at a time when the security alert status has been increased to "orange" high risk, requiring additional security measures that have not been funded. Similarly, federal initiatives for smallpox vaccines and other measures have fallen on states to implement, again without funding. The proposed budget also excludes the potential expenses of a war in Iraq.

In response to concern over the Department of Defense's "Total Information Awareness" project, DOD has established one internal and one external advisory board to provide oversight to ensure that TIA is conducted appropriately.

Venezuela's general strike has ended, but protests continue, as more than 100,000 people marched to continue their protests against President Hugo Chavez.


4. Asia Pacific

Australian Prime Minister John Howard received a vote of no confidence from the Senate for his support of a US-led war in Iraq. Meanwhile, plans are underway to provide each Australian citizen with a government anti-terrorism pack.

Cambodia's government has apologized to Thailand for the anti-Thai riots last week that have been blamed on a small group of extremists.

Indonesian police headquarters were bombed but there were no injuries. Local Islamic militants connected with Jemaah Islamiyah are suspected.

In the Indonesian province of Aceh, rebels of the Free Aceh Movement and the government have each presented plans for demilitarization from which negotiations will proceed.

Japan has developed contingency plans in case of an attack from North Korea. It is believed that attacks against US military installations in Japan would be an attractive initial target. There is also concern about a war spreading if it broke out on the peninsula.

In Laos, a group of 25-30 armed men thought to be Hmong insurgents ambushed a bus and other traffic, attacking it with automatic weapons and grenades. At least 12 were killed and 26 wounded.

North Korea has asserted its right to pre-emptive strike in response to the build-up of US forces and US threats against the country. The Yongbyon nuclear plant has been reactivated. Although North Korea says it will use the facility to generate electricity (compensating for the ban on oil shipments), it is widely feared that instead, it will produce plutonium for sale and to fuel arms. The US has warned of these possibilities, but is still relying on neighboring countries to deal with the threat. China has refused to become involved, while South Korea pursues its own efforts by working with the North to open the first cross-border road to traffic since the Korean War.

Fighting in the southern Philippines between guerillas of the Abu Sayyaf and government soldiers killed two rebels and one soldier. Philippine authorities and Muslim leaders are warning of retaliation against US interests in the region if the US attacks Iraq. There have been a number of anti-American and anti-war demonstrations.


5. Europe

German authorities have arrested three men on terrorism charges, possibly in connection with the Hamburg cell of al Qaeda. They were detained after raids on two Islamic centers and four homes.

In the Basque region of Spain, a local police officer was shot dead. The separatist group ETA is believed responsible.

In Ankara, Turkey, members of a plane's crew were taken hostage. The attacker, Ali Ilker Durbak, claimed to be carrying explosives and shouting anti-American slogans. In less than an hour a police operation had brought the incident to a safe conclusion.

In the UK, six men and a woman were arrested in a four-city anti-terrorism operation.

In Northern Ireland, retaliation following the murder of John Gregg, a leader of the Ulster Defence Association (UDA) and a colleague, has led to a surprising outcome as supporters of rival leader Johnny "Mad Dog" Adair fled to Scotland, where several of them have been detained. (Details on the loyalist feud forthcoming in a future feature.)

Yugoslavia is gone; replaced by the new country Serbia and Montenegro.


6. Middle East

The United Nations has brokered an agreement for Israel and the Palestinians to cooperate to solve the disastrous environmental problems in the occupied territories, including contaminated water, land degradation, and hazardous waste. http://www.unep.org/Documents/Default.asp?ArticleID=3209&DocumentID=277 and http://postconflict.unep.ch/high3.htm

In the Gaza Strip, Israeli forces demolished the home of Baha Saeed, a militant from Fatah who had been shot dead in September 2000. His 65-year-old partially deaf mother was crushed under the rubble. Hamas, a militant Palestinian group, often operates in Gaza and has said it is prepared to replace Yasser Arafat and the Palestine Liberation Organization as the leader of the Palestinian people.

Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has held talks with Palestinians for the first time in nearly a year to discuss a ceasefire.

Violations of the blue line in Lebanon have continued, including Israeli fly-overs and anti-aircraft fire. There is concern that the violence could escalate.

With the start of the annual Hajj pilgrimage, Saudi Arabia has increased security with thousands of troops and police.

In the occupied West Bank, a Palestinian policeman was shot dead; two Palestinian gunmen of the Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade were shot dead after they killed two Israelis during an ambush of an army post; two Palestinian medical workers were killed when an Israeli helicopter fired machine guns.


7. South Asia

Attacks in Afghanistan are increasing to the extent that they are interfering with aid organizations. Soldiers, relief workers and civilians have been targeted with land mines, dynamite, grenades, and guns. Five soldiers were killed as they prayed by suspected Taliban fighters. A message was sent from the Taliban calling for a holy war against occupying US forces. Continued fighting in Afghanistan is often cited as an illustration of why a war in Iraq may not be a simple matter.

The border between Bangladesh and India has seen a number of border clashes over alleged illegal immigration and forced deportation.

Anti-police protests in the Indian state of Bihar, citing police atrocities and a wave of kidnappings, have become violent and led to a number of injuries.

Continued tension over the Kashmir separatist movement has led to another tit for tat exchange in which India and Pakistan each expelled five diplomats.

The Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) has assigned its negotiating team in preparation for peace talks with the government. In face of planned peace talks, a planned student strike has been called off.

In Pakistan, an explosion at a nuclear facility killed one and injured one, but has not affected the reactor. In Karachi, a motorcycle bomb killed one and injured seven. The owner of the motorcycle is being questioned. In the Baluchistan province gunmen have shot dead four people. It is unclear whether the attack was economically or religiously motivated.

In Sri Lanka, peace talks are continuing, but a shadow over the proceedings was cast by the suicide of three Tamil Tiger members who blew themselves up when peace monitors investigated the boat.


8. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare

The Washington Post has reported that US President Bush "has signed a secret directive ordering the government to develop, for the first time, national-level guidance for determining when and how the United States would launch cyber-attacks against enemy computer networks, according to administration officials." (Bradley Graham, "Bush Orders Guidelines for Cyber-Warfare" February 7)

The Ottawa Citizen (Jack Aubry "Terrorist Link Suspected in Scam" February 5) reports that a "$2.3-million student loan and tax scam involving [68] fraudulent social insurance numbers could have terrorist links...." When discovered in 2001, two Middle Eastern men were investigated; Mounir Dallo has been charged and the other, Mohamed Sulaiman, fled the country.

Douglas Boudreau has been indicted in Massachusetts, US court on charges of hacking, wiretap and larceny violations. He was accused of using thousands of stolen identities belonging to students and faculty at Boston College to charge foods and services to other accounts.

9. Finance

The US Treasury Department Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) added the names of 59 businesses and 78 individuals to its list of Specially Designated Narcotics Traffickers. They comprise Cali cartel fronts in Spain and Colombia.

The European Union will launch an investigation into allegations that EU funds supplied to the Palestinian Authority have been channeled into terrorist activities.

Jalil Abbas Jilani, acting High Commissioner in Delhi, India, has dismissed Indian claims that he funded militants in Kashmir. These accusations, based on information provided by a suspect who had been arrested on related charges, set off another round of accusations and diplomatic retaliations, as India and Pakistan each expelled five diplomats.

Elias Akhdar, Hassan Makki and Salim Asde arrested in connection with cigarette smuggling and terrorism financing now face additional charges including participating in military exercises with Hezbollah.

Dan Molinski writes that "Colombia Admits That Oil Money Sometimes Ends Up With Rebels" in an article that looks at the findings of the National Royalties Commission. His article was published in The Wall Street Journal on February 4.

The proposed US budget includes a 24 percent increase in funding for the Treasury's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, from $10 million to $14 million.


10. Human Rights

In a unanimous decision, the International Court of Justice has ruled that the US must stay the execution of three Mexican citizens who are due to be executed while an investigation into whether their legal right to consular help from the Mexican government was respected.

Not satisfied with the number of executions in the US, Attorney General John Ashcroft has ordered federal prosecutors in New York and Connecticut to pursue the death penalty in more cases.

Jackie Elliott, born in the UK, has been executed in Texas.

The first 18 judges for the International Criminal Court have been elected.


11. Law and Legal Issues

Mohammed Abrar and Mohammed Altaf of Pakistan were arrested under suspicion of militant connections including al Qaeda.

Elias Akhdar, Hassan Makki and Salim Asde arrested in connection with cigarette smuggling and terrorism financing now face additional charges including participating in military exercises with Hezbollah.

Mohamed el-Atriss of New Jersey pled guilty to one count of selling false documents and he has been released on reduced bail of $50,000 (down from $500,000). He has been jailed on secret evidence since last August based on alleged terrorist ties that have now apparently fizzled out.

General Janko Bobetko, charged with war crimes offenses in Serbia, has been found too ill to stand trial.

Douglas Boudreau has been indicted in Massachusetts, US court on charges of hacking, wiretap and larceny violations. He was accused of using thousands of stolen identities belonging to students and faculty at Boston College to charge foods and services to other accounts.

The trial of Niall Connolly, Martin McCauley and James Monaghan has resumed in Colombia. They are accused of training rebels of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) but have said they would not be able to have a fair trial so refuse to attend the court. After initial prosecution testimony the trial was adjourned until March 25.

The retrial of Egyptian human rights activist Saad Eddin Ibrahim on sedition and embezzlement has opened.

Lam Hei-kit of Hong Kong was found guilty in British court of money laundering and possession of illegal passports in connection with human trafficking, including the smuggling of 58 Chinese immigrants who were found dead in a tomato truck.

Angeletos Kanas, Constantine Agapiou and Irene Athanasaki were arrested on suspicion of participation in the Revolutionary Popular Struggle organization, connected with November 17.

Mas Slamet Kastari, leader of the Singapore branch of Jemaah Islamiyah, has been arrested in Indonesia. Indonesia and Singapore do not have an extradition treaty and Indonesia has refused to hand over the suspect, whom they are holding in connection with a bomb set off at police headquarters in Jakarta.

Dr Ahmed Javed Khawaja and four relatives have been accused of membership in al Qaeda. Detained in Pakistan since mid-December, their attorney has asked that their confessions, the only evidence against them, be dismissed as they had been forced.

Earl Krugel of the Jewish Defense League agreed a plea bargain in which he pled guilty to conspiracy to bomb Arab institutions in Los Angeles last year.

Lesley McCulloch has been freed from Indonesian jail after serving five months for visa violations. She had been accused of spying after visiting Aceh rebels.

Baghdad Meziane and Brahim Benmerzouga are on trial in Leicester, England in connection with charges that they used false credit cards and promotional videos to finance al Qaeda and recruit new members.

In the war crimes trial of Slobodan Milosevic the prosecution has produced documentary evidence and a witness, General Aleksandar Vasiljevic that have tied Milosevic directly to Serb nationalists in 1991-5.

The trial of Mounir Motassadeq, accused of membership in al Qaeda and assisting in the September 11 attacks, has ended after three months of testimony. A five-judge panel will rule on the verdict, for which no date has been set. He faces a maximum sentence of 15 years in prison for membership in a terrorist organization.

The US prosecutors in the trial of Zacarias Moussaoui have asked for the trial to stop while an appeals court evaluates whether Moussaoui has the right to question named co-conspirator and suspected senior al Qaeda member Ramzi Binalshibh. The government says Binalshibh's testimony is too sensitive and could threaten national security if made public. Prosecutors said they would rather move the case to a secret military tribunal.

Kamel Mouzoug, Abdul Hamid Maskine-Djabar, Krimou Azzouz and Mourad Khif appeared in court in London on charges of possession of forged documents. They had been arrested originally under the Terrorism Act during investigative raids in Manchester.

The prosecution of Brigadier General Noer Muis in Indonesia has ended with a request for a 10-year prison sentence. He is accused of involvement in massacres in East Timor in 1999.

Brendan Gerard O'Connor has appeared in court in Northern Ireland on charges of conspiracy and membership of the Real IRA in connection with the explosion at a police station in July 2000.

Nidal Okal, a Palestinian, was convicted in Israeli court for links to al Qaeda after he had trained in Afghanistan. He was sentenced to 27 years in prison although he was not known to have carried out any attacks.

Militia chief Joao Tavares and his deputy Lieutenant Try Sutrisno have been indicted by the UN for crimes against humanity committed in East Timor in 1999.

Joaquin Valencia Trujillo of the Cali Cartel was arrested in Colombia. He is on the US list of most wanted drug traffickers.

Morgan Tsvangirai, opposition leader of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), and two colleagues are on trial in Zimbabwe for treason. The trial has been chaotic and opened with the temporary exclusion of international observers.

Muslim cleric Maulana Hussain Umarji was arrested in India's Gujarat state on charges of planning an arson attack against a train that sparked the deadly communal riots a year ago. Many shops have closed in protest at the arrest.


12. Narco-terrorism

The UN has issued a call for economic aid to overcome "The Opium Economy in Afghanistan" http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2003/socnar851.doc.htm. Afghanistan has re-emerged as the world's largest producer of opium, responsible for almost 75 percent of production.

Burmese and Thai authorities have held discussions regarding cooperation to reduce drug production in the region. Thailand has cracked down on drug dealing. Last weekend, 2,500 people were arrested and 23 shot dead during anti-drug raids.

The US Treasury Department Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) added the names of 59 businesses and 78 individuals to its list of Specially Designated Narcotics Traffickers. They comprise Cali cartel fronts in Spain and Colombia.


13. Transportation

Restricted airspace in Washington DC will be expanded for private planes from 15- to 30-miles. This action was taken in response to the increased security alert issued by the US government.

In Ankara, Turkey, members of a plane's crew were taken hostage. The attacker, Ali Ilker Durbak, claimed to be carrying explosives and shouting anti-American slogans. In less than an hour a police operation had brought the incident to a safe conclusion.


14. Weapons of Mass Destruction

A growing number of hospitals and healthcare workers in the US have balked at smallpox vaccinations. Less than 300 of a planned half million have been vaccinated since the program began two weeks ago. Canada has announced they will stockpile enough vaccine for the entire population in case of a terrorist attack.  Meanwhile, the search for treatment of smallpox will be helped by the Smallpox Protection Project of Oxford University that will use a distributed computing grid to test the virus against known chemical compounds.

For additional background on smallpox, check out the January 30 edition of the New England Journal of Medicine (http://www.nejm.org). It offers a range of articles, including a case of a false alarm; cowpox; viewpoints on smallpox vaccination; a public policy model; and a special article on "The Public and the Smallpox Threat" by Robert J. Blendon et al. Blendon finds the public have a number of false beliefs about smallpox and views of precautions in case of a bioterrorist attack, suggesting the need for public education and discussion in the medical community regarding vaccination of individual physicians at this time.

The Association of Public Health Laboratories (http://www.aphl.org/) has issued a study on public health labs, finding that " Fifty percent of state laboratory directors rated their lab’s capacity to respond to a chemical terrorism event as “poor"....." and "uncovered serious inadequacies as well as needed improvements in worker safety, facility security and methods for agent analysis of environmental samples."

The US Food and Drug Administration has approved Pyridostigmine for protection against soman nerve gas.

Workers at the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant that enriches uranium for commercial nuclear plants (the only such facility in the US) have gone on strike.


15. Recently Published

David P. Colley, "Blood for Dignity: The Story of the First Integrated Combat Soldiers in the U.S. Army" St. Martin's

Susan Dominus, "Everybody Has a Mother" in The New York Times Magazine, February 9 (About Zacarias Moussaoui's family)

Economist "Digital Dilemmas: A survey of the internet society" published January 25 includes important coverage on balancing privacy and the impact of the internet on political and social issues.

Merchant International Group has published the January issue of "Global Risk Trends" featuring coverage on Iraq, Angola, Germany, India, Mexico, Mozambique, Pakistan, Russia and Turkey. For details, look online at http://www.merchantinternational.com

Pankaj Mishra, "The Other Face of Fanaticism: While the West worries over Islamic fundamentalism, India's Hindu nationalists thrive by stirring up a murderous anti-Muslim frenzy" The New York Times Magazine, February 2.

Betsy Reed, editor "Nothing Sacred: Women Respond to Religious Fundamentalism and Terror" Thunder's Mouth/Nation


FEATURE ARTICLE: Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers Report

Oil is not the only underlying reason for the persistent drive towards war against Iraq; the notorious “military-industrial complex” must also be fed. This week the US Department of State’s Bureau of Verification and Compliance released their latest report “Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers”. The complete Fact Sheet is reproduced below. It summarized the main findings. The full report also includes “ statistical tables on military expenditures, arms transfers, armed forces, and economic comparison data for 172 countries from 1989-1999... trend charts, and world rankings of all countries by 17 indicators”. To obtain the full report, contact the US Government Printing Office (http://www.usgpo.gov) or wait for it to be posted on the State Department’s web site at http://www.state.gov.

Fact Sheet
Office of the Spokesman
Washington, DC
February 6, 2003

Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers 1999-2000


Military Expenditures

World military expenditures rose 2 percent in 1999 to $852 billion, a modest 4 percent above the post-Cold War low in 1996, but 35 percent below the level of a decade earlier.

The military spending of developed countries also grew 2 percent in 1999, ending a continuous decline throughout the decade to the 1998 post-Cold-War low. The 1999 level was 45 percent below that in 1989.

Developing countries, on the other hand, reached an all-time high in 1999 with $245 billion spent on their militaries. This was a 3 percent increase over the prior year and an 18 percent increase over the 1989 level.

North America accounted for the largest regional portion, or 34 percent, of 1999 world military spending with the U.S. alone accounting for 33 percent. Western Europe with 22 percent had the second largest share.

Two major shifts in regional shares of world military expenditures occurred over the 1989-1999 decade. Eastern Europe's share fell from 34 percent to 7 percent with the collapse of the former Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact. East Asia's share more than doubled, from 10 percent to 21 percent, primarily because China’s estimated spending grew by 64 percent.

South Asia had the highest average annual growth rate of any region in the decade, with 5 percent. Its share of world military spending more than doubled (from 0.8 percent to 2.0 percent), reflecting the military build-up between India and Pakistan.


Arms Imports

World arms trade grew 8.5 percent in 1999 to $51.6 billion. This was 19 percent above the post-Cold War low in 1994, though still 40 percent below the all-time high reached in1987.

Developed countries' arms imports rose to $29.5 billion in 1999. Since 1995 they averaged a hefty 13 percent annual growth, while developing countries' imports declined 6 percent.

Reversing the traditional predominance of developing country imports, the developed countries raised their share of total arms imports from 35 percent in 1989 to 57 percent in 1999, while the developing share declined from 65 percent to 43 percent.

Western Europe was the largest arms importing region in 1999, with $15.1 billion or 29 percent of the world's total. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries accounted for nearly half, or 49 percent of total arms imports. The top three regions -- Western Europe, the Middle East, and East Asia -- accounted for 78 percent of the world’s arms imports.

The top five importing countries in 1999 -- Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Japan, China-Taiwan, and United Kingdom -- accounted for 37 percent of world arms imports.


Arms Exports

World arms exports ($51.6 billion, equaling arms imports) rose 8.5 percent in 1999 after a spike in 1997 and a downturn in 1998 influenced by the Asian financial crisis.

Developed nations' arms exports in 1999 were 96% of the world’s, 20% above the 1994 post-Cold-War low, 24% below the 1989 level, and 36 percent below the all-time peak in 1987.

North America led the regions in 1999 with 65 percent of the world, while Western Europe had 23 percent and Eastern Europe, 8.5 percent. The U.S., with 69 percent of the total export agreements signed from 1997-1999, is likely to dominate the world arms market in the near future.

A tendency toward greater collaboration and interdependence in arms production is apparent, as half of U.S. arms imports came from five of the other top exporters and the majority of their imports came from the U.S.


Other Indicators

The number of people serving in the world’s armed forces fell 26 percent over the decade to 21.3 million in 1999. The six largest forces (in thousands) were China – 2,400, United States – 1,490, India –1,300, North Korea – 1,000, Russia – 900, and Turkey – 789.

The world’s military burden ratio, military expenditures to GNP, fell sharply from 4.7 percent in 1989 to 2.4 percent in 1999. The developed nations' ratio fell from 4.8 percent to 2.3% and the developing nations’, from 4.1 percent to 2.7 percent. The Middle East ratio in 1999 was 6.8%.

The world’s average military expenditures per capita ratio, a general measure of security costs, fell 43% from $254 in 1989 to $142 in 1999. Developed countries spent an average $517 per capita in 1999, 10 times the average $51 spent in developing countries.

Military expenditures per member of the armed forces, which may serve as an indicator of technological preparedness levels, in 1999 averaged $92,600 per serviceman in developed nations and $16,600 in developing nations, with a range of $189,000 in the U.S. to less than $1,000 in several low-income countries.

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