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AUTHOR:
TerrorismCentral Editorial Staff

TITLE:
TerrorismCentral Newsletter - May 11, 2003

SOURCE:
TerrorismCentral, May 11, 2003

TEXT:

The World Bank has released a new study that finds ethnic tensions or political feuds are not the primary cause of conflict, but rather that entrenched poverty and dependence on export of natural resources are to blame. The consequences of conflict and failed development are then linked to international problems of terrorism, illicit drugs, and disease. For more detail, see this week's Feature Article. For other news of the week, the News Highlights section highlights events all around the globe.

CONTENTS:

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK:

1. World
2. Africa
3. Americas
4. Asia Pacific
5. Europe
6. Middle East
7. South Asia
8. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare
9. Finance
10 Human Rights
11. Law and Legal Issues
12. Narco-terrorism
13. Transportation
14. Weapons of Mass Destruction
15. Recently Published

FEATURE ARTICLE:
Breaking the Conflict Trap: A World Bank Policy Research Report


NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK


1. World

There have been some indications that nuclear reprocessing may have begun in North Korea, opening the possibility that weapons and weapon materials could be produced for sale. North Korea has had a lively arms trade in the past; it is one of the few ways it has been able to obtain any foreign currency. While these developments proceed to create an ever more dangerous environment, the US administration that is the focus of North Korea's diplomatic efforts, is still debating their approach: military versus diplomatic.

News on the Sudden Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) front is also worrying. Although largely stabilized in the rest of the world, there are indications that the disease is spreading out of control in rural China. International transit points, primarily by air, have strengthened their monitoring systems, including the use of body temperature sensors in airports. The disease has also proven to be longer-lived and more deadly.

The first epidemiological study of SARS was published in The Lancet. (Christl A Donnelly, et al, "Epidemiological determinants of spread of causal agent of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong, The Lancet May 3 http://thelancet.com/journal/vol361/iss9368/full/llan.361.9368.early_online_publication.25595.1) Based on this study, the overall death rate is 20 percent. More specifically, for patients under 60 years of age the death rate is 13 percent and if over 60 it is more than 40 percent.

Facing lawlessness, looting, missing nuclear material, murder in broad daylight, cholera, shortages of food and water, and a chaotic infrastructure, the US administration has announced an overhaul of the occupying authorities in Iraq. The retired general, Jay Garner, in charge of reconstruction will now report to a new civil administrator, Paul Bremer, whose background is in the State Department. Barbara Bodine, who had been the chief administrator of Baghdad, has also been reassigned. These and other reorganization efforts will be completed in the next few weeks.

While this is going on, the US plans to present a resolution to the UN to end sanctions against Iraq. The US has already suspended sanctions imposed by the US in 1990. Lifting sanctions would help to pave the way for the sale of Iraqi oil that is intended to partially fund the reconstruction efforts. The reconstruction contracts continue to be awarded to US firms with close connections to the current administration, reinforcing lingering suspicion over US motives in the region.

Meanwhile, tapes and letters apparently from Saddam Hussein have emerged. These communications urge an underground war against the occupation forces. Also in this week's news of a billion dollars in cash spirited away by Saddam Hussein's son shortly before the war began.
 

2. Africa

In Algeria, a report that the release of 31 missing tourists was being negotiated was subsequently denied.  The condition of the hostages is unknown.

Burundi's hopes for peace after the appointment of new ethnic President Ndayizeye were short lived. In continued fighting between the rebel Forces for Defense of Democracy (FDD) and the army, 23 rebels and two soldiers were killed and fighting continues.

Democratic Republic of Congo's northeast town of Ituri has seen a serious increase in violence as rival Hema and Lendu militias battle for control. Fighting and casualties escalated throughout the week, with dozens dead and thousands of new refugees forced to flee. The UN mission was invaded, with the 500 peacekeeping troops poorly equipped to deal with thousands of militiamen and thousands more refugees.

Guinea has been accused of supplying weapons to Liberian rebels of the Liberians United for Reconciliation and Democracy (LURD).

Ivory Coast has lifted a night-0time curfew that has been in place for eight months.

Liberia's conflict between the government and rebel Liberians United for Reconciliation and Democracy (LURD) has spilled over into Guinea, Ivory Coast and Sierra Leone. The UN has extended the arms embargo for another 12 months and added a new ban on timber as well as extending a ban on rough diamonds and targeted travel restrictions.

Nigeria's state elections were accompanied by widespread fraud and violence that killed at least nine people.

Rwanda and Uganda held discussions over security in the lakes region, particularly their efforts to ease tensions between themselves and thus aid peace efforts in DR Congo, in which they had supported opposing sides.

In Senegal, dissident Casamance separatists killed one soldier and wounded a second, even while the main section of the rebel Movement of Democratic Forces of Casamance (MFDC) is discussing renewed peace talks with the government.

Sierra Leone's infamous rebel leader, Sam Bockarie, has been confirmed dead.

South Africa is mourning the death of veteran anti-apartheid hero Walter Sisulu, at the age of 90.

Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe is under pressure from his main African colleagues. Thabo Mbeki of South Africa, Bakili Muluzi of Malawi and Nigeria's Olusegun Obasanjo met with him in an attempt to resolve the political and economic crisis. They failed to convince Mugabe to step down. Meanwhile, Zimbabwe's Supreme Court has declared parts of the harsh new media laws unconstitutional.


3. Americas

Brazil's rising wave of drug-related violence has led to the rise of local vigilante groups to protect particular areas as well as a challenge to the state authorities' policy of confrontation replacing collaboration with criminal gangs.

Colombia's offense against rebel and paramilitary groups has continued, helped by training from the US. Raids against Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) locations have led to seizure of planes and cars and intelligence about rebel bank accounts. The FARC rebels killed ten hostages during a failed rescue attempt conducted by the Colombian army. In a bomb attack on a city aqueduct, three people were killed.

In Guatemala, thousands of former government-backed paramilitaries stormed government buildings and took hostages to press demands of payment for past services. Police regained control after several hours.

Dominican Republic arrested five Haitians suspected of conspiring against the Haitian government.

In the US, security issues continue to roil competing government agencies. The military is reviewing US defense positions around the world, looking towards new installations in Eastern Europe and the Gulf while readjusting existing forces in Europe, Saudi Arabia, South Korea and Japan. Intelligence agencies continue to draw fire. Defense investigators in Iraq filed to find weapons of mass destruction and are moving on from this assignment, leaving behind finger pointing among the various intelligence agencies. The General Accounting Office released a report on the controversial detention of 7,600 foreign nationals after September 11. They found that less than half of the detainees were questioned, they did not believe it was voluntary, and law enforcement participants doubted they had produced even a single piece of useful information.

In Guantanamo Bay, the US naval base in Cuba, 13 prisoners, including three children, were returned to Afghanistan or Pakistan. Thirty new detainees have been added to the base that now holds 680.

In the areas of Chicago, Illinois; Seattle, Washington and Vancouver, Canada an exercise to test preparedness in case of a radiological and biological terrorist attack will be conducted form May 12-17.

In the State of New York, federal investigators of the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has released an interim report into the collapse of the World Trade Center towers that found the towers had never been tested for fire resistance. The investigation continues.


4. Asia Pacific

Burma marked the one-year anniversary of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi from house arrest. 18 political prisoners were released, but over a thousand are still in prison and there have been few moves towards political reform.

China has jailed two labor activists for their role in organizing large protests in the northeast last year.

The Indonesian government has given rebels of the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) a deadline of May 12 to drop its demand for independence and begin to disarm or face military action. Thousands of Indonesian troops have been sent to the region and four GAM negotiators were arrested in connection with alleged bombings. The Indonesian army in Aceh has trained militia organizations and orchestrated attacks in the province as they did in East Timor. Continued violence, including military destruction of civilian villages, also continues in West Papua. Western arms, particularly from Britain, and illegal timber sales help fuel the violence.

Japan's Pana Wave Laboratory cult awaits the end of the world scheduled for May 15 with police monitoring the movements of their convoy.

The Philippine government has demanded that members of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) responsible for attacks at Mindanao's airport, port, and a town be handed over for prosecution. Dozens had been killed and taken hostage in these attacks, and the government may cancel peace talks. MILF attacks have continued, killing 16 soldiers in on attack. MILF insists they only attack military targets but a marketplace bomb that killed 12 on Saturday is being attributed to them.


5. Europe

A European Union report on civil liberties finds there have been increased threats to citizens posed by electronic surveillance, undercover operations, and anti-terrorism legislation. The UK was particularly criticized.

The Cypriot people may reunite themselves now that travel restrictions have been lifted and trade is beginning to occur between the Turkish and Greek sides, supported by the Turkish Prime Minister. The Turkish Cypriot leader has asked to implement a blacklist of undesirable Greek Cypriots, but the joy evident in the citizenry may render his positions irrelevant.

French authorities have arrested three men and a woman on weapons charges. They are believed to be members of Basque separatist group ETA.

Georgia's interior minister has denied reports that al Qaeda members have moved activities to the Pankisi Gorge.

An Italian court hearing a case against 12 men accused of terrorist plots has accepted that Osama bin Laden can be subpoenaed as a witness.

Montenegro goes to the polls for the third time in six months to try to elect a president. The law requiring a 50 percent turnout has been abolished.

In Russia, crime boss Seymur Mirseymur Abdullayev ("Kingpin") was shot dead in revenge for similar killings in March. It is feared this could trigger a gang war in Moscow.

In Chechnya, an explosion in a sports stadium killed one policeman and injured two. A woman suicide bomber was arrested before she could detonate her device. These acts occurred on Victory Day despite high security.

Spain's Supreme Court banned 241 political groups from municipal elections on the grounds they are related to the Basque separatist group ETA or its supporters. Massive protests against the ban took place over the weekend. The US added Batasuna, Euskal Heritarrok and Herri Batasuna to the list of terrorist groups on April 30.

The UK is continuing investigations into the two British suicide bombers discovered in action last week in Israel. Three people in Britain have been arrested in connection with the attack.

Following publication of the Steven's report revealing collusion between security forces and paramilitaries (see https://terrorismcentral.com/Newsletters/042003.html) and the role of double agents, the alleged top British spy has been named as Alfredo Scappaticci, known as "Freddy" to his friends and "Stakeknife" to his spy-masters. The Sunday Herald reports, "As the British government's most powerful weapon in its 30-year 'dirty war' against the IRA and Sinn Fein, Scappaticci is suspected of being allowed by the army's Force Research Unit (FRU) to take part in up to 40 murders. He is said to have been involved in the killings of loyalists, policemen, soldiers, and civilians to protect his cover so he could keep passing top-grade intelligence to the British. He also kidnapped, interrogated, tortured and killed other IRA men suspected of being British informers". For this and more on the FRU, see http://www.sundayherald.com/np/fru.shtml

In Northern Ireland, discussions to revive the stalled peace process and hold local elections have taken place with, as yet, no resolution. The Irish Republican Army has issued a further statement regarding full disarmament in the event of implementation of the Good Friday accord. Sectarian violence continues.

Uzbekistan hosted a European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) meeting in which EBRD warned they would cut financial support unless the Uzbek government institutes widespread reforms, including a ban on torture.


6. Middle East

The Quartet's roadmap, a guideline for moving towards a peaceful two-state solution between Palestinians and Israelis developed by the UN, EU, US and Russia, has received a predictably rocky response. US Secretary of State Colin Powell met last week, calling for immediate confidence-building steps without getting bogged down in details. The Palestinians, represented by the new Prime Minister, agree to accept the roadmap and have promised to take actions to improve security while insisting that Israel reciprocate. Israel, stopping short of directly insulting Powell, has said they will express their concerns directly to US President Bush.

In the occupied Gaza Strip, Israel has implemented new travel restrictions on foreigners. These restrictions follow the suicide bombing two weeks ago conducted by two British subjects as well as mounting casualties among the press and aid agencies. Foreigners are now required to sign a waiver of responsibility should they be killed or injured in the occupied territories, acknowledge they are entering a dangerous area, and declare they are not peace activists. During the week, the Israeli army killed a one-year-old Palestinian, a mentally disabled man approaching a settlement without stopping, and used a missile strike to kill a Hamas militant.

Iran has rejected US claims that it has developed nuclear weapons. Militant Iranian opposition group Mujaheddin-e-Khalq (The People's Mujahideen), operating from inside Iraq, has negotiated disarmament terms with the occupying US authorities. There are about 5,000 heavily armed militants in this group.

Israel and the UK are cooperating to investigate the suicide bombing two weeks ago conducted by two British Muslims. They have traced their route, exposing limitations in Israeli security measures, and smuggled sophisticated explosives inside a copy of the Koran. Britain has arrested three people in connection with the alleged conspiracy.

Police in Saudi Arabia have identified 19 men they say are members of al Qaeda and is offering rewards for information leading to their arrest. The initial investigation uncovered arms and explosives and led to a shootout. The men are believed to be in hiding in Riyadh. The attitude of treating the men as criminals, not just misled, and of announcing identities and rewards is new, as is the increased openness of the announcements. King Fahd has also given permission for a private human rights organization to be set up inside Saudi Arabia for the first time.

In the occupied West Bank, Palestinian gunmen fired on a car, killing one Israeli and injuring his daughter and another passenger. Two Hamas militants were killed by an explosion under disputed circumstances.


7. South Asia

Continued attacks in Afghanistan have forced partial suspension of UN de-mining activities and led to the first military air response from US troops in the last 6 weeks, during which missiles destroyed a suspected Taliban hideout. The UN Security Council has expressed serious concern over the lack of security in a country still largely controlled by warlords and exhibiting renewed al Qaeda and Taliban activities, including threats of a new holy war.

Nine prisoners in the northern Jharkhand state of India escaped from by breaking a toilet and escaping through an open drain. In the southern Indian state of Kerala, a sectarian attack against a Hindu wedding party killed nine and injured 20. More than 60 people have been arrested in connection with the attack. The state of Tamil Nadu has rejected a proposed out-of-court settlement by Karnataka state regarding water sharing. Tripura rebels with either the All Tripura Tiger Force of the National Liberation Front of Tripura are suspected in a village massacre that left 22 dead. Election clashes in West Bengal have left nine dead.

India and Pakistan have taken initial steps to reopen diplomatic ties and renew negotiations over Kashmir. India has rejected Pakistan's call for nuclear disarmament and has conducted another missile test.

Kashmir's largest indigenous separatist group, Hizbul Muhjahideen, insists that its movement for freedom does not belong on the US list of terrorist organizations and that this designation will not affect its activities.

Nepal's government and Maoist rebels have concluded a second round of peace talks.

Sri Lanka's peace talks are deadlocked and the search for a compromise continues.


8. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare

A serious flaw in Microsoft's Passport service has left open as many as 200 million accounts. Exploiting the flaw, using a simple password reset, could compromise personal information, credit card details and online mail accounts. The security lapse could lead to huge government fines imposed by the Federal Trade Commission in connection with an agreement last year to better protect consumer information or face fines of up to $11,000 per violation.

France and the US are leading a G-8 study of how to use new biometric technologies for international security. The group will investigate the use of biometric technologies for passports and other documents.

A credit card "factory" responsible for thousands of cases of identity theft and credit card fraud was uncovered in Maryland, US. See Brigid Schulte and Nurith C. Aizenman, "Huge Credit Scheme Alleged" in the Washington Post, May 8 http://www.washingotnpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A28116-2003May7?language=printer


9. Finance

The UN has extended the embargoes against Liberia for another 12 months. This includes the arms embargo, a new ban on timber, a ban on rough diamonds, and targeted travel restrictions.

The Environmental Investigative Agency and other environmental groups have called for a boycott of endangered timbers, particularly ramin, that are smuggled from Indonesia and laundered through Malaysia and Singapore before being sold on international markets.

US sanctions against Angolan rebel group UNITA, now transformed into a political party, have been removed.


10. Human Rights

The US has signed a bilateral agreement with Albania to avoid possible prosecution by the International Criminal Court. This runs counter to European Union guidelines, but several other countries are expected to reach similar agreements.

Burma marked the one-year anniversary of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi from house arrest. 18 political prisoners were released, but over a thousand are still in prison and there have been few moves towards political reform.


11. Law and Legal Issues

Amrozi, accused as the Bali bomber mastermind, begins his trial in Indonesia on May 12.

Nasser Awais, a senior Palestinian militia leader and co-founder of the Al Aqsa Martyr's Brigades, has been sentenced by an Israeli court to 14 terms of life in prison plus 50 years for shooting 14 Israelis over the course of some 31 months.

Software engineer Mike Hawash pleaded not guilty to terrorist charges in Portland, Oregon. For interesting background to this, see Rick Merritt's article "U.S. says engineer aided terrorists: Colleagues support ex-Intel EE charged as a co-conspirator" in Electronic Engineering Times, May 5, 2003

Oier Imaz was arrested in the Basque province of Spain on suspicion of membership in the separatist group ETA.

Abed Abdulrazzak Kamel was convicted in Yemeni court of killing three US missionaries and has been sentenced to death.

Slobodan Milosevic's trial in The Hague for war crimes took a new turn with the discovery of the first direct evidence that he ordered war crimes.

Abdelghani Mzoudi has been charged in German court as accessory to murder in connection with the September 11 attacks at the World Trade Center.

Momir Nikolic pleaded guilty in an agreement with the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia. He admitted one count of crimes against humanity and awaits sentencing.

The November 17 trial in Greece has heard testimony from Heather Saunders, widow of Stephen Saunders who was the last victim of the group. She asked for tough prison sentences for the "madmen" who killed her husband.

Patrick O'Shea was convicted of membership in the Continuity IRA and awaits sentencing. Six others (Des Long, Patrick Kenneally, Gerard Brommell, Robert McNamara, Joseph Lunch, and Christopher Dunne) were acquitted.

Mario Placanica, Italian policeman accused of shooting a globalization protestor in 2001, was found to have acted in self-defense.

Paveen Akthor Sharif, Zahid Hussain Sharif and Tahari Shad Tabassum have been charged in British court for involvement in the suicide bombing in Israel carried out by British Muslims.

Jovica Stanisic and Franko Simatovic have been detained in Belgrade in connection with the Zoran Djindjic assassination, but will be extradited to The Hague to face charges brought by the international tribunal later this month.

Fabio Ochoa Casquez is on trial in the US in connection with cocaine smuggling as one of the leading Colombian drug barons.


12. Narco-terrorism

Recent arrests in Mexico indicate links with Colombian narcotics dealers. See Kevin Sullivan and Mary Jordan's "Arrests in Mexico Unveil Colombian Cocaine Connection" The Washington Post, May 8.

Leading Colombian drug baron Fabio Ochoa Vasquez is on trial in Miami, Florida, US for cocaine smuggling.

Colombian authorities last week uncovered some four tons of cocaine valued at $120 million packed in a speedboat.

Pakistani authorities have seized their largest ever heroin cache, valued over $500 million, following a gunfight near the Afghan border.

North Korea has denied allegations by Australia that they were involved in drug smuggling.


13. Transportation

US Homeland Security Secretary ha announced that biometric tracking systems would be used at the largest US airports and seaports by the end of this year.

The US Congress is also discussing acceleration of Coast Guard modernization to increase security.


14. Weapons of Mass Destruction

Iran has rejected US claims it has developed nuclear weapons, but the US is pressing for an investigation by the International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA) to establish whether Iran has violated the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. (The IAEA has not been allowed back into Iraq to review the situation of the nuclear facilities it had previously monitored.) Russia, a major supplier to Iran, has refused to back these initiatives.

The US Senate voted to approve lifting a ban on the research and development of low-yield nuclear weapons.

Tokyo Electric Power Company has restarted a reactor that had been closed for safety checks. 16 others remain closed.

The US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) plans to investigate ponds to see if an underwater chamber could be where the 2001 anthrax attacks were processed.


15. Recently Published

Anne Applebaum, "Gulag: A History" Doubleday

Juval Aviv, "The Complete Terrorism Survival Guide: How to Travel, Work and Live in Safety" Juris Publishing Inc.

Jean Bethke Elshtain, "Just War Against Terror: The Burden of American Power in a Violent War" Basic

Karl E. Meyer, "The Dust of Empire: The Race for Mastery in the Asian Heartland" Century Foundation/Public Affairs

Aryeh Neier, "Taking Liberties: Four Decades in the Struggle for Rights" Public Affairs

James Whittaker and Herbert Thompson, "How to Break Software Security" Addison Wesley


FEATURE ARTICLE: Breaking the Conflict Trap: A World Bank Policy Research Report

In more than 200 pages, the World Bank provides a thorough analysis of 52 major civil wars between 1960 and 1999. They find links between conflict and failed development and cross-border, international problems of disease, drugs and terrorism. After discussing the causes and effects of civil war, the report ends with suggested actions to help prevent civil wars. The World Bank has experience supporting reconstruction in Bosnia, Kosovo and other Balkan states; Sierra Leone, Rwanda, and Democratic Republic of Congo in Africa; and East Timor and Afghanistan in Asia, over the last eight years.

The World Bank characterizes civil war as "development in reverse" whose consequences are primarily suffered by civilians and in which the people who start the conflict are often immune to the adverse effects. They found that:
1. "[C]ivil wars have highly adverse ripple effects that those who determine whether they start or end obviously do not take into account. The first ripple is within the country: most of the victims are children and other noncombatants. The second ripple is the region: neighboring countries suffer reduced incomes and increased disease. The third ripple is global: civil war generates territory outside the control of any recognized government, and such territories have become the epicenters of crime and disease. Many of these adverse consequences persist long after the civil war has ended, so that much of the costs of a war occur after it is over."
2. "[T]he risks of civil war differ massively according to a country?s characteristics, including its economic characteristics. As a result, civil war is becoming increasingly concentrated in relatively few developing countries. Two groups of countries are at the highest risk. One we refer to as the "marginalized" developing countries, that is, those low-income countries that have to date failed to sustain the policies, governance, and institutions that might give them a chance of achieving reasonable growth and diversifying out of dependence on primary commodities. On average, during the 1990s these countries actually had declining per capita incomes. Such countries are facing a Russian roulette of conflict risk. Even countries that have had long periods of peace do not seem to be safe, as shown by recent conflicts in Cote d?Ivoire and Nepal. It is imperative that such countries are brought into the mainstream of development. The other high-risk group is countries caught in the "conflict trap". Once a country has had a conflict it is in far greater danger of further conflict: commonly, the chief legacy of a civil war is another war. For this group of countries the core development challenge is to design international interventions that are effective in stabilizing the society during the first postconflict decade."
3. "[F]easible international actions could substantially reduce the global incidence of civil war."

Unsurprisingly, the report provides detailed statistical analysis. For example:
* The typical conflict in the study lasted seven years
* The average risk of conflict was about 6 percent, but roses quickly if the economy is poor or declining and if it depends on the export of natural resources. There was no statistical increase in the risk of conflict based on ethnic or religious diversity or income inequality.
* 95 percent of illegal narcotics production around the world is in civil war countries.
* Four billion people live in developing countries that as a group face risk of civil war four times as high as OECD countries
* One billion people live in low-income countries in economic decline and dependent on natural resource and other primary commodity exports, leading to a risk 15 times as high as OECD countries. As the economies further decline, the risk rises.
* The average developing country (less than US$3,000 per capita GDP) spends 2.8 percent of GDP in peacetime and 5 percent during civil war, causing a commensurate decline in public infrastructure expenditures even before the military impact is taken into account. Over the first ten years after a conflict, 17 percent of GDP is lost with increased military spending; cumulatively around 60 percent of one year's GDP. Private capital can leave by nearly a third in the same time span.
* Wars of the early 20th century saw 90 percent of the victims were soldiers. In the 1990s nearly 90 percent were civilians.
* Public health suffers tremendously. In the first year of a conflict infant mortality increases by 13 percent and remains 11 percent higher during the first five years after the conflict. The prevalence of malaria rises and increased spread of HIV/AIDS is very high. Long-term disabilities after a conflict provide yet another long-term economic and social drain.

None of these effects are local. Rather, they spread to neighboring countries as is described in the full report. These details provide evidence that point to three major international by-products of conflict: illegal drugs, HIV/AIDS and international terrorism. For example, international terrorists largely operate in areas outside of government control for training and operations. Al Qaeda is one notorious case.

To "break the conflict trap", the report proposes "An Agenda for International Action" that offers three initiatives, some aspects of which are already under way.
1.    Aid:
Provide aid in postconflict situations over an entire decade, allocate more aid to low-income countries, provide aid to countries with weak governance, expand the scale of aid, and use aid to reinforce democratic institutions.

2. Governance of Natural Resources
Shut rebel organizations out of markets (as in the Kimberley process to combat blood diamonds, reduce exposure to sudden declines in export income, increase the transparency of natural resource revenues, attract more reputable resource extraction companies, and tighten security against illicit payments.

3. Military Interventions
Coordinate reductions in military spending, and sequence military interventions with aid and reform

There is much additional detail, specific examples and explanation in the full report and we urge you to consult it and other supporting materials available from the World Bank:
Paul Collier, Lani Elliott, Havard Hegre, Anke Hoeffler, Marta Reynal-Querol and Nicholas Sambanis, "Breaking the Conflict Trap: Civil War and Development Policy" A copublication of the World Bank and Oxford University Press, 2003
Program details are at http://econ.worldbank.org/programs/conflict and the full report is available at http://econ.worldbank.org/prr/CivilWarPRR/


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