As the killing of another Hamas leader by Israeli troops further threatens the Mideast Roadmap this week's Feature Article looks back at earlier efforts to gain peace between Israelis and Palestinians. News Highlights range from the latest international opinion poll results to sabotage of oil interests in Nigeria and Iraq.

CONTENTS:

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK:

1. World
2. Africa
3. Americas
4. Asia Pacific
5. Europe
6. Middle East
7. South Asia
8. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare
9. Finance
10 Human Rights
11. Law and Legal Issues
12. Narco-terrorism
13. Transportation
14. Weapons of Mass Destruction
15. Recently Published

FEATURE ARTICLE:
Fifty Years of Middle East Peace Plans

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK

1. World

A BBC poll of eleven countries obtains similar results to the recent Pew Research study, finding that the US is considered more dangerous than Iran or Syria, labeled as rogue states, that over half said it was wrong to invade Iraq and two-thirds viewed President Bush unfavorably. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/2994924stm

June 20 marked World Refugee Day. The UN High Commissioner for Refugees reports a 14 percent drop in asylum seekers, mainly due to repatriation of 2 million Afghans from Pakistan and Iran (another 4 million remain). http://www.unhcr.ch/cgi-bin/texis/vtx/home

The World Bank has issued a new report finding that land rights for the poor are the key to reduced poverty and increased growth, while the absence of land reform has not only a negative economic impact but also leads to violence. This report is at http://econ.worldbank.org/prr/land_policy/ and more information on land reform issues is in the May 4th feature at https://terrorismcentral.com/newsletters/050403.html

Persistent questions over the seeming absence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq has led to inquiries regarding the intelligence used in the lead-up before the war in the US, UK and Australia. President Bush's most recent assertion that weapons were looted, if true, would be a most damning indictment of the invasion, as it opens the probability that such dispersal would make it more likely that WMD would end up in the hands of terrorists.

North Korea says that the plan to increase checks on its ships to combat possible trade in drugs, money, and nuclear materials, is an aggressive act and they will retaliate against the US if its sovereignty is infringed with any blockade. They have similarly threatened Japan and have emphasized that their retaliatory steps will include stepping up the nuclear program.

The SARS epidemic is being contained and attention has turned to identifying the source of the virus and the public health policy issues that arose during the emergence of yet another new infectious disease.

2. Africa

Angola has announced it will make its oil payment information public, to increase transparency and reduce corruption in the industry. This in turn will help attract aid and investment. Nigeria and Sao Tome have given similar undertakings.

Angola has officially closed all demobilization camps of the former UNITA soldiers, although the resettlement has not been completed, due to major logistical problems.

The rebel Conseil National pour la Defense de la Democratie - Force pour la Defense de la Democratie (CNDD-FDD) have increased attacks in Burundi, including kidnapping government administrators.

The Central African Republic has suspended eight diamond firms, seized another twenty mines and taken similar measures against timber, mining and oil companies, in an effort to combat corruption.

Democratic Republic of Congo has seen continued ethnic violence, despite the ceasefire, including the massacre of 70 villagers by Lendu militia and the violent capture of the town of Lubero by RCD-Goma rebels. The continued violence has led to another crisis, in the lack of food supplies. The small UN peacekeeping force came under attack and killed two attackers. They have banned weapons in the northeastern town of Bunia, home of much of the recent violence. The UN Security Council is considering whether to strengthen the mission.

New land mines planted in the Eritrea-Ethiopia border area have killed seven and injured 30.

Ivory Coast government and rebels have agreed a pullback of forces and a prisoner exchange prior to beginning the disarmament process.

Kenya has halted all flights to Somalia as a counter-terrorism measure. Somalia has decried the measure. The US closed its embassy in Kenya after warnings of a possible imminent attack. Kenya protested the closure and denied the allegations.

Peace talks in Liberia were hampered by rebel demands for the ouster of President Charles Taylor. A ceasefire agreement was signed between the government and rebel movements Liberians United for Reconciliation and Democracy (LURD) and Movement for Democracy in Liberia (MODEL). Violence broke out again only hours after the ceasefire, but discussions have continued. Taylor has rejected the proposed transitional government from which he would be excluded and said he would serve as President to the end of his term in January 2004 and may again run for office.

Former military ruler of Sierra Leone, Johnny Paul Koroma, has been reported killed in Liberia, though the reports have not yet been confirmed. He has been on the run following a war crimes indictment.

Somalia's peace talks ended in chaos after Abdallah Derow Isaak, speaker of the interim parliament, declared himself president and claimed his government had impeached incumbent president Abdulkassim Salat Hassan.

Ugandan rebels of the Lord's Resistance Army have announced attacks would be undertaken against Catholic missionaries. They have attacked an orphanage in the north, beating the children and abducting 16, four of who have escaped.

Zimbabwe has banned public strikes. Opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai has been freed on bail following his arrest on treason charges.

3. Americas

Under Colombia's army recruitment drive, over 10,000 peasants have joined the fight against rebel groups. A soccer ball loaded with explosives went off, killing one police officer and injuring three.

Peru's truth and reconciliation commission has found that up to 60,000 people died or disappeared during the violence of the 1980s and 1990s. This is nearly double the earlier estimates. For more information on this topic, see last week's special feature at https://terrorismcentral.com/Newsletters/030615.html. In another human rights challenge, a parliamentary investigation has reopened into the alleged sterilization of more than 300,000 peasant women under the rule of former President Alberto Fujimori.

For the first time in the US, President Bush is coming under attack for the deaths in Iraq, occurring at a rate of about one a day and for questions regarding the intelligence used in the run-up to the war. A congressional investigation into the sources used and whether there were flaws in intelligence or the information was manipulated politically to support the case for war. Intelligence agencies in the US have been under attack for failures associated with the September 11 attack, and the new allegations will serve to deepen concern regarding US intelligence agencies and the impact this could have on the policy of preemptive war.

In the state of Michigan, a curfew has been imposed in the town of Benton Harbor following two nights of race riots triggered by the death of a black motorcyclist killed in a high speed police chase.

June 19 marks the 50th anniversary of the Rosenberg execution.

In Venezuela, opposition members of the National Assembly physically blocked loyalists to President Chavez from the assembly building. In response, the pro-government assembly members met outdoors to approve new laws that would allow the government to begin implementing restrictions on press freedom, assembly, and other rights.

4. Asia Pacific

Australia's intelligence agency has acknowledged knowledge of threats by Jemaah Islamiyah and members of the group prior to the Bali bombings, but had no intelligence regarding attacks in Indonesia. Australian Prime Minister Howard has joined his colleagues in the war against Iraq in defending his claims about Iraq's weapons programs.

Burmese opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi is being held in a 2-room hut at Insein prison with no indication of when she will be released.

The Indonesian military has used F-16 fighter jets to deliver sonic booms across Aceh to attempt to shock the separatist rebels of the Free Aceh Movement (GAM). They anticipate several more months of fighting. More than 200 have been killed and there are more than 40,000 refugees.

In Laos, two journalists and a clergyman have been detained on possible criminal charges in connection with their association with ethnic Hmong militants.

North and South Korea have connected their first railway link in fifty years.

In the Solomon Islands, two villages were burned down as warlord Harold Keke used some 1,200 people as human shields against a police landing. Keke's supporters have recently killed more than 50 people. Australia and New Zealand may send military forces to support the government against this escalation of ethnic violence.

5. Europe

At the European Union summit in Thessaloniki, Greece, 30 European leaders gathered amid high security to discuss critical regional issues. In the 3-day meeting, they agreed on a number of security measures, including crime and corruption in the Balkans, but failed to make progress on farm subsidies or HIV/AIDS funding for the third world.

French police have launched a massive raid against Iranian opposition group the People's Mujahideen, detaining 159 people, following a week of self-immolation on the part of its members and accusations that the group, formerly operating in northern Iraq, were financing and planning acts of terrorism.

In Georgia, police seized two boxes of radioactive cesium 137 and strontium 90 that were in the trunk of a taxi.

A large truck bomb exploded at a Russian government building in Grozny, Chechnya, injuring at least 36 and killing the two inside the truck.

Britain's head of the MI5 intelligence organization states that a biological, chemical or nuclear terrorist attack on a western city is inevitable, although conventional weapons and suicide bombs remain the weapon of choice. Meanwhile, the opposition Conservative Party has accused the government of taking a disorganized and amateur "Dad's Army" approach to homeland security.

In Northern Ireland, the Real IRA claimed responsibility for the 1,200-pound bomb found last week in an abandoned van and disarmed.

6. Middle East

The World Economic Forum held a special session in Jordan in which regional leaders discussed economic issues and representatives of the Quartet discussed the roadmap for peace.

US Secretary of State Powell met with the Prime Ministers of Israel and the Palestinian Authority to attempt to make progress on the roadmap peace plan. He has called Hamas the enemy of peace and offered support for Palestinian security forces; asked for Israel to withdraw from the northern Gaza Strip and Bethlehem, to stop targeted assassinations; and to begin taking down settlements. An upsurge in violence, including a suicide attack that killed a shop owner, militant shootings that killed a 7-year old Israeli girl and the death of another Hamas leader at the hands of Israeli forces have made the prospects for the roadmap very uncertain.

Demonstrations in Iran have calmed down, with police holding some thirty protesters. The government and their supporters have attacked US calls for a regime change and accused the US of interfering in its internal affairs. These charges have increased the intransigence of the Iranian regime against increased nuclear inspections. The International Atomic Energy Agency has reported that Iran did not report certain nuclear materials and activities and has asked for immediate implementation of an additional agreement whose protocols provide for additional inspections. Russia expressed support for Iran's insistence that its program is peaceful and they have no plans to develop weapons.

Jordan held its first elections in two years. Candidates loyal to King Abdullah have won. The main Islamist party gained voted, and elected the first female Muslim activist, Hayat al-Massimi.

Saudi police have arrested five people following a raid and shoot-out on a suspected al Qaeda cell.

7. South Asia

Afghanistan's lack of security has led to increased power for religious leaders in some areas. Two journalists have been arrested and accused of defaming Islam. Battles between US troops and militants continue. These attacks led Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf to call for a huge expansion of international forces to extend authority outside of the capital, Kabul, and fill the growing vacuum in the rest of the country, before hostile forces can do so. Nearly 80 aid agencies have also called for increased security.

In India, archeologists excavating Ayodhya found no evidence of a Hindu temple preceding the Muslim temple that was destroyed on the site but will continue their investigation for another two weeks. In the northeastern state of Assam, rebels of the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) and security forces clashed, killing three rebels and an army major.

In Indian-administered Kashmir, two grenade attacks injured thirty people. Responsibility is unknown. India has indicated it could enter discussions with Pakistan to resolve the conflict.

Sri Lankan rebels are suspected in the death of a Tamil politician opposed to the group. The latest government offer for renewed peace negotiations was turned down by the rebels.

8. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare

Customers of retailer Best Buy received an email alerting them to a "Fraud Alert" that was actually a hoax sending the recipient to a fraudulent web site to enter credit card and social security numbers. The fraudulent sites were quickly shut down.

The South African Intelligence department has identified threats from cyberattacks and will tighten laws and implement security audits for government departments.

The web site of the UK Labor Party was hacked, inserting a picture of US President Bush carrying a dog with the head of UK Prime Minister Blair.

9. Finance

A US federal appeals court has upheld the designation of the Holy Land Foundation for Relief and Development as an organization that funded terrorism.

The Financial Action Task Force has adopted tough new anti-money laundering rules including enhanced due diligence of customers, better examination of financial records, controls on correspondent and shell banks, and expanding the organizations required to address the controls. The FATF Forty Recommendations has been updated accordingly. http://www.fatf-gafi.org/

India's home ministry has blacklisted more than 800 non-governmental organizations accused of links to rebel groups.

10. Human Rights

The International Court of Justice in The Hague has dismissed a request by the Republic of Congo to stop investigation by a French court into human rights abuses.

Tajikistan's legislative measures have gained general approval and resulted in their removal from the US State Department list of countries not doing enough to prevent human trafficking.

11. Law and Legal Issues

Muyahi Haji Abdullah appeared in criminal court in Bangkok on charges connected to his alleged involvement in a plot to bomb western interests.

Australia's Family Court has ruled that the policy of indefinite detention of child asylum seekers is illegal.

Iyman Faris has admitted in court in Columbus, Ohio, US to charges of providing material support to terrorists and conspiracy to provide support. He was allegedly involved in an al Qaeda plot to blow up New York's Brooklyn Bridge.

Niall Connolly, Martin McCauley and James Monaghan on trial in Colombia as alleged IRA members training FARC rebels, have resumed their trial after an adjournment to analyze videotape evidence.

Adil al Jazeeri, alleged al Qaeda leader, has been arrested and is being questioned in Pakistan.

Michael McKevitt, alleged leader of the Real IRA, will stand trial in Ireland.

Gearoid Maguaid, Joseph Kearney and Kevin Rainey have been found guilty in Belfast court of possession of 500 pounds of homemade explosives and sentenced to jail terms of between 4 and 11 years. A fourth man, Michael McGrogan received an 18-month suspended sentence.

Freddie Scappaticci, accused of being the army spy labeled "Stakeknife" has been given leave in the High Court in Belfast to force the government to clear his name.

Zaurbek Talkhigov was convicted in Russian court of providing information to the Chechen militants during the October 2002 theater siege. He has been sentenced to eight and a half years in prison.

A US federal appeals court has ruled that the names of hundreds of people detained after the September 11 attacks can be kept secret. The ruling will be appealed.

12. Narco-terrorism

The UN Office for Drugs and Crime released the Myanmar and Laos Opium Surveys for 2003, finding a decline in opium cultivation in the 'golden triangle' that includes Thailand. "http://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/press_release_2003-06-18_2.html. They find a 24 percent decline for Myanmar, which nonetheless remains the second-largest supplier of opium and heroin, and a 15 percent decline for Laos, attributed to shifting crops from poppies to grains. Laos is the third-largest supplier. Afghanistan is the number one producer. The UN has launched five new projects to help stem the narcotics trade in Afghanistan.

13. Transportation

The passenger jet missing from Angola has still not been found. The US is investigating the loss with local African governments in the hope of thwarting the jet's possible use as a terrorist weapon.

14. Weapons of Mass Destruction

US President Bush, under pressure regarding the intelligence findings that justified immediate war in Iraq, has now suggested that the weapons of mass destruction have been looted. If true, this would open the probability that such weapons would end up in the hands of terrorists.

The International Atomic Energy Agency has reported that Iran did not report certain nuclear materials and activities and has asked for immediate implementation of an additional agreement whose protocols provide for additional inspections.The International Atomic Energy Agency has warned of increased trafficking of radiological materials in Africa that could increases the risk of a dirty bomb.

Georgian police seized two boxes of radioactive cesium 137 and strontium 90 that were in the trunk of a taxi.

The American Medical Association has introduced new emergency preparedness training classes to train physicians for mass casualties.

15. Recently Published

Catholic Relief Services "Bottom of the Barrel: Africa's Oil Boom and the Poor" http://www.catholicrelief.org/get_involved/advocacy/policy_and_strategic_issues/oil_report.cfm.cfm
Zachary Karabell, "Parting the Desert: The Creation of the Suez Canal" John Murray

Gerald Kovacich and Edward Halibozek, "The Manager's Handbook for Corporate Security", Butterworth Heinemann

Karl E. Meyer, "The Dust of Empire: The Race for Mastery in the Asian Heartland" Century Foundation/Public Affairs

FEATURE ARTICLE: Fifty Years of Middle East Peace Plans

Conflict in the Mideast long preceded the formal establishment of the state of Israel, but the residue of the poorly planned dissolution of Great Britain's colonial empire exacerbated the tensions. In the 55 years since Israel was declared a sovereign state, scores of efforts to bring peace to the region have been attempted. This article describes the most significant of these attempts.

The state of Israel was formally declared on May 14, 1948. Relations between Israel and its neighbors were always strained and usually in a state of near war. By 1965, new Palestinian organizations were formed to adopt terrorist tactics in an effort to gain attention to their demands.

By 1967, the number of security incidents had greatly increased, even in the UN-administered demilitarized zone. Rumors of an imminent Israeli attack led Egypt and Syria to build up their forces in the Sinai. In June war broke out. Israel launched a preemptive strike against its neighbors. In only six days, Israel shattered the Arab armies, seized control of the West Bank and East Jerusalem from Jordan, taken the Gaza Strip from Egypt and the Golan Heights from Syria.

United Nations Resolution 242 called for Israel to withdraw in exchange for peace guarantees. However, a meeting of Arab heads of state issued the Khartoum Declaration that called for immediate withdrawal with no assurance of peace, no recognition of the state of Israel and no negotiations. This set the policies that have dominated most Arab states ever since.

The UN began to work with Israel and the Arab states to implement Resolution 242 but made little progress. One of the early efforts was the Allon Plan in October 1967. Allon was the Israeli Foreign Minister and his proposal suggested relinquishing the Arab-dominated areas of Judea and Samaria to Jordan while maintaining control of a secure border area. In the region he described, Israeli settlements began construction, but there was no peace agreement.

With no resolution in sight, the US administration of President Nixon stepped in, with Henry Kissinger as National Security Advisor. Nixon and Kissinger believed that resolution of the Arab-Israeli conflict would help their efforts to reach detante with the USSR. In 1969 Secretary of State William Rogers developed the first US-led plan. It called for Israel's unilateral withdrawal and was rejected on all sides. Israel refused a plan that had no security commitment and the Arab and Soviet governments simply refused to discuss any agreement at all.

The next few years saw repeated breaches of the ceasefire but full-scale war did not break out again until October 1973 with the Yom Kippur war. Egypt and Syria launched simultaneous attacks against Israel, supported by other Arab states. Although Israel was taken by surprise with the unprovoked attack, it quickly gained the advantage. The UN Security Council passed Resolution 338 to end hostilities and begin negotiations. The US and Soviet Union intervened to end hostilities and the war finally ended with a number of agreements, including the Sinai I (with Syria) and Sinai II (with Egypt) disengagement agreements. The terms included ending force, limited Israeli withdrawals, UN involvement, and some economic measures to improve relations between Egypt and Israel.

The status quo continued, with sporadic discussions between Egypt and Israel. In 1977 Egyptian President Anwar Sadat became the first Arab head of state to visit Israel. Subsequent peace discussions were deadlocked until secret talks were held in September 1978 with US President Carter at Camp David. Those negotiations reached two agreements. The first provided for a negotiated peace framework that culminated in a peace treaty between Egypt and Israel in 1979. The second, was a framework for negotiations over the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

In 1982, Israel invaded Lebanon. US President Reagan, facing a revolution in Iran and the Russian invasion of Afghanistan, needed a way to gain influence in the Arab world. He turned his attention to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This took the form of a proposed 5-year plan for Palestinian autonomy in association with Jordan but not as a separate state. Both sides rejected it in 1983.

Peace plans began coming with even greater frequency.

In 1988 (after the first intifada) US Secretary of State George Schultz offered a plan for negotiations based on international, multilateral participation to facilitate a bilateral settlement. The plan failed, but a debate within the Palestinian Liberation Organization led them to acknowledge the right of Israel to exist.

In 1989 US Secretary of State Baker developed a 5-point plan (based on a 4-point plan developed by Israel) that laid out a plan for Palestinian self-government. Israel's refusal to deal with the PLO put an end to this plan.

Discussions in Madrid in 1991 led to the Oslo Peace Accords in 1993. These laid out the "Declaration of Principles on Interim Self-Government Arrangements" that provided for Palestinian self-rule in the West Bank and Gaza Strip for a 5-year interim period while peace negotiations continued.

During this 5-year period, there were a number of interim agreements. These include the 1994 Gaza and Jericho Agreement, the 1995 Oslo II Agreement, the 1997 Hebron Protocol and Agreement, and the 1998 Wye River Memorandum.

The timetables set out in the Oslo accords were not met, so the 1999 Sharm al-Sheikh Memorandum set a new deadline of September 13, 2000. Intensive meetings in late 1999 and early 2000 culminated in a summit at Camp David in July 2000. The terms proposed by Israel were rejected by the Palestinians, and the second intifada began in the fall.

To understand why the plan failed so badly and prevent recurrence of violence, former US Senator George Mitchell led a commission. After spending five months in the region, they issued a report in April 2001 that included recommendations for confidence-building measures and called for a return to negotiations.

This plan was perceived as too favorable to Palestinians, so CIA Director George Tenet was sent out to prepare another report. His objective was to reach a ceasefire so that his recommendations, based on the Mitchell report, could be put into place.

In 2002 US President George Bush outlined a vision of a two-state solution, excluding participation by Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat. The US worked in collaboration with the UN, the EU and Russia, to develop the current plan, called the "roadmap"

The 2003 Roadmap outlines a series of reciprocal steps leading to a Palestinian state by 2005. Approved by both the Israeli and Palestinian Prime Ministers, actions on the ground have virtually stopped all progress.

Watch this Newsletter to see whether this becomes the shortest-lived peace plan, or if the efforts now underway will salvage a lasting peace.Additional resources:

Full text of most of the documents cited here may be found at http://www.mfa.gov.il/mfa/go.asp?MFAH00pq0

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