Last week US President Bush gave a rare press conference in which he reiterated the continued threat from al Qaeda and suggested that the war in Iraq helped reduce the terrorist threat. The House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee disagrees. This week's Feature Article contains extracts from their report "Foreign Policy Aspects of the War against Terrorism". For the rest of the week's news around the world, see the News Highlights.

CONTENTS:

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK:

1. World
2. Africa
3. Americas
4. Asia Pacific
5. Europe
6. Middle East
7. South Asia
8. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare
9. Finance
10 Human Rights
11. Law and Legal Issues
12. Transportation
13. Weapons of Mass Destruction
14. Recently Published

FEATURE ARTICLE:
Extracts from Foreign Policy Aspects of the War against Terrorism

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK

1. World

International trade talks focusing on the issue of agricultural subsidies in developed countries have made little progress. If entrenched positions do not shift, progress on other issues will not be possible. In the meantime, the average growth in Gross Domestic Product in African countries has declined from 4.3 percent to 3.2 percent, largely as a result of these subsidies.

UN Secretary General Kofi Annan has called for a fundamental rethinking of international institutions that were sidelined with the war in Iraq. A high-level meeting with 20 of the world's leading regional organizations concluded with an affirmation of multilateralism providing the most effective response to challenges to international peace and security such as terrorism and state violence, weapons proliferation, organized crime and human rights abuses.

Despite increasing pressure to gain international support in rebuilding Iraq, the US has not yet pursued a UN resolution authorizing it. India, for one, has refused to send peacekeepers without such a resolution. On the continuing intelligence rows in Britain and the US, the independent inquiry into the death of weapons expert David Kelly is underway in the UK and the Bush administration has ordered a new national intelligence assessment of Iraq. The last was done in October 2002 and its findings have been under close scrutiny. NOTE the correct link to the complete report of the congressional investigation into intelligence is http://www.gpoaccess.gov/serialset/creports/911.html. President Bush has refused to declassify the remaining sections of the report, despite requests from Saudi Arabia to be given the chance to clear themselves of any allegations they supported the September 11 terrorists.

North Korea has agreed to conduct bilateral talks with the US in the context of multi-lateral negotiations involving six countries. No date has been set. They plan to continue despite the diplomatic glitch in which US Undersecretary Bolton criticized the North Korean leader and said life there "is a hellish nightmare" (http://usembassy.state.gov/seoul/wwwh43gx.html). In return, the North Koreans refuse to have further dealings with Mr. Bolton, the "human scum" and "blood sucker".

2. Africa

Algeria has offered safe passage to members of the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC) who are thought to be holding a group of tourists kidnapped more than five months ago. One hostage has died, leaving the number of captives at 14. They are now in Mali, where Tuareg tribesmen are helping negotiate the release.

Algerian Berbers have won recognition of their language, Tamazight, in the educational system.

Burundi rebels of the CNDD-FDD have said it is time to work towards peace and that they will join the ceasefire. Their delegates to peace discussions have arrived in Bujumbura.

Democratic Republic of Congo continues peace efforts with additional troop withdrawals, but fighting continues to break out between RCD rebels and Mayi Mayi militias in the south and between Lendu and Hema groups in the northeast. The UN Mission has been extended for another year and troop strength increased from 8,700 to 10,800.

Eritrea and Ethiopia have had no political contact since the peace agreement more than two years ago. As border demarcation nears, the lack of dialog raises the risk of renewed conflict. Ethiopia has said it will not allow the demarcation to proceed without a change to move the town of Badme into Ethiopia.

Drought in Ethiopia has led to major food shortages and, in turn, conflicts between pastoralists searching for water and pasture.
Kenyan police detained a terror suspect who detonated a grenade in the back of a police car, killing himself and one policeman.
Liberian President Charles Taylor says he will leave office on August 11, roughly a week after an initial Nigerian peacekeeping force arrives. His time of departure from the country is unclear. Meanwhile, fierce fighting has continued during the week and civilians are in desperate straits.

As part of a crackdown on Islamic extremists, Mauritanian security forces attempted to arrest Islamic preacher El Hacen Ould Habiboula but a crowd prevented them. Several dozen in the crowd were arrested.

Morocco's King Mohammed has banned Islamic parties and says he is the only representative of Islam in Morocco. He has rejected the latest UN plan to resolve the Western Sahara conflict.

In Nigeria, women protesters in the oil-rich Delta have vowed to continue their protests against Shell oil. Fighting between Ijaw and Itsekiri militias has killed at least 25.

Rwanda's presidential campaign began on August 1, with four candidates.

Sierra Leone rebel leader Foday Sankoh of the Revolutionary United Front (RUF) has died while awaiting trial in Sierra Leone.

Somalia's interim president walked out of peace talks, but his term ends in two weeks in any case so the talks have continued. The Dutch group NOVIB has reviewed the draft charter and suggests it should be discarded and a new agreement designed that corrected major errors, omissions and contradictions. The voice of another NGO, the International Crisis Group, calls for recognition of the self-declared republic of Somaliland, suggesting there was no viable alternative. http://www.crisisweb.org/projects/showreport.cfm?reportid=1067

The South African government, participating in an HIV/AIDS treatment policy conference, has increased anger and divisions as they appear to backtrack on earlier commitments. Instead of a treatment policy, the government is insisting on traditional remedies, including dietary supplements of mopane worms and other indigenous insects, to manage the disease. The health minister insists that drug treatments are not proven to be safe and has indicated that nevirapine, a highly effective and low priced treatment to prevent mother to child transmission, may be withdrawn.

Sudan seized the crew of a Russian helicopter and held them for more than a week after their detention. Russia said the helicopter was on a peacekeeping mission to DR Congo, but Sudanese officials suspected them of carrying arms for rebel groups. Peace talks are stalled, and the government says a new framework agreement would be needed before resuming them. Security at the border town Darfur has deteriorated, with rebel looting, government attacks, banditry and local ethnic conflicts.

Zimbabwe's economic collapse is now felt in a shortage of banknotes that has led to riots.

3. Americas

With Argentina's revocation of extradition, at least 40 former military officials are in custody waiting to be sent to Europe to face trials for human rights violations during the "dirty war".

Brazilian governors met with President Lula da Silva to ask for firm action against new land seizures promised by the Landless Movement.

Colombian rebels of the Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) kidnapped Ingrid Betancourt, French citizen and former presidential candidate, in February 2002. The French government launched a secret rescue mission to the Amazon, near the border between Colombia and Brazil. It was unsuccessful and the French have apologized for not notifying the local governments.

Ecuador's former president Gustavo Noboa has asked for political asylum in the Dominican Republic to escape persecution in Ecuador.

Guatemala's constitutional court has ruled that former coup leader and dictator Efrain Rios Montt can run for president in the November elections.

Mexican rebel leader Subcomandante Marcos of the Zapatista National Liberation Army has announced the creation of Good Government Committees to oversee communities.

Peruvian rebels Abimael Guzman and Elena Iparraguirre of the Maoist Shining Path have gone on hunger strike to protest their detention in solitary confinement.

Puerto Rican jurors acquitted two defendants in a murder case for which the US Justice Department had demanded the death penalty. Capital punishment is illegal under the constitution, and the acquittal now averts the dispute -- for the time being.

A new tape allegedly from al Qaeda leader Ayman al Zawahri says the US will pay the price if any Muslim detained at Guantanamo Bay is harmed.

The number of HIV infections in the US has risen for the third consecutive year.

CORRECTION: Last week we gave the incorrect link to the complete report of the US congressional investigation into intelligence preceding the September 11 attacks. The correct address is http://www.gpoaccess.gov/serialset/creports/911.html

4. Asia Pacific

Dramatic new satellite photographs by the European Space Agency show the disastrous loss of the Aral sea, now left with only a quarter of its former volume. The neighboring states have joined in an association to manage the waters.

The Economist has produced "At the crossroads: A survey of Central Asia" in its July 26 edition.

Australia is closing Manus Island offshore detention center in Papua New Guinea.

Australia and Indonesia will conduct joint military exercises in counter-terrorism and human trafficking.

Burmese authorities have indicated that opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi could be released from detention this fall and has criticized the US imposition of economic sanctions.

Cambodia's elections saw relatively few irregularities and an 80 percent turnout. The ruling Cambodian People's Party won a majority but did not reach the two-thirds that would let it govern alone so needs to form a coalition government. Opposition parties have voiced opposition to the current CPP leader, so this may prove difficult.

China criticized a US report that it was increasing the number of ballistic missiles aimed at Taiwan and says that they are only deterring a declaration of independence and that the US is distorting the issue in order to sell more weapons to Taiwan.

Japan and the US have been unable to reach agreement on treatment of US military personnel accused of serious crimes. The continued presence of US forces is a sensitive issue, and there have been a number of serious crimes including the rape of a local schoolgirl that prompted widespread protests.

Philippine President Arroyo will maintain the state of emergency imposed last week after the seizure of a shopping mall that is now being termed an attempted coup. Two independent commissions will investigate the accusations of the mutineers and accusations that the government had carried out bombings to garner US support.

Solomon Island police have surrendered some illegal weapons to the Australian peacekeeping force. The peacekeepers are also discussing disarmament of the rebel Malaitan Eagle Force and with the forces of rebel leader Harold Keke.

5. Europe

In Bosnia, forensic experts have begun investigating what appears to be the largest mass grave yet found, with up to 700 Muslim men and boys killed after Bosnian Serb forces took hold of the town of Srebrenica.

Three Corsican separatists have been arrested in Portugal, accused of a series of bank robberies apparently to fund the fight for Corsican independence. They are wanted in France on terrorism charges.

A French judge is investigating 17 alleged members of Iranian opposition group the People's Mujahideen, including its leader, Maryam Rajavi, to see whether to press charges related to funding terrorism.

The UN Observer Mission in Georgia has been extended for another 6 months.

In Greece, a US insurance company was bombed by a new terrorist group called People's Revolutionary Action (PRA).

Chechen rebels are suspected in the suicide truck bombing against a military hospital in North Ossetia, in southern Russia. At least 50 people are dead and 72 others were injured. In Ingushetia, a remote-controlled landmine exploded under a Russian military convoy, killing five and wounding one.

Basque separatist group ETA detonated a car bomb outside an airport in northern Spain. A telephone warning gave time to evacuation and there were no injuries.

The Turkish parliament has granted a partial amnesty to militants of the banned Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), excluding leaders of the organization. A bomb left outside the justice ministry blew up as it was being investigated, injuring 16 police.

British police have raided the headquarters of radical Islamic group al-Muhajiroun and the homes of its leaders, executing warrants under the Terrorism Act. There were no arrests. Another raid took place in Strathclyde, Scotland, and three men were detained.

Sectarian incidents continue in Northern Ireland, where the devolved assembly remains suspended. Sinn Fein has withdrawn the "Sniper at Work" T-shirt it had been selling on a new web site.

6. Middle East

Iran has acknowledged it is holding several leading al Qaeda operatives, including Saad bin Laden, Sulaiman Abu Gaith, and Saif al Adel. There are also reports they are holding Ayman al Zawahiri. Iran has refused to hand any over to the US.

Israeli Prime Minister Sharon met with US President Bush, shortly after Bush had met with Palestinian Prime Minister Abbas. Prior to the meeting, Sharon had convinced the cabinet to release 210 Hamas and Islamic Jihad prisoners in addition to 210 linked to Fatah and 120 in prison on criminal charges. This remains a small percentage of the over 6,000 detained, many without charges. Talks over transferring control of more West Bank towns have broken down.

The most contentious issue facing the roadmap is now the security barrier/wall that Israel is building through the West Bank. The issue of a tender for building new Israeli homes in the Gaza Strip has also drawn fire.

In Lebanon, Ali Hussein Saleh of Hezbollah was killed by a car bomb in Beirut.

The UN Interim Force in Lebanon has been extended for another six months, amid concern over "persistent Israeli violations of Lebanese airspace and the Hezbollah anti-aircraft fire directed at Israeli villages".

Saudi authorities have launched a national crackdown on terrorism Six suspected militants and two police were killed in a gunfight. Saudi authorities have agreed to allow US agents to interview a Saudi intelligence agent, Omar al-Bayoumi, who helped two of the September 11 hijackers. Despite this cooperation, they have not been able to convince the US administration to release pages of the US Congressional report on intelligence that reportedly contain some 28 pages regarding Saudi involvement in terrorist attacks.

Palestinian security forces attempted to arrest 17 members of the al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigade wanted by Israel. They refused to be moved and the security forces have compromised, letting them remain inside Yasser Arafat's compound where they had taken shelter.

In Yemen, a gunman shot dead and wounded two people at worship in a mosque. Police have killed nine and arrested four alleged Adebn-Abyan Islamic Army members (affiliated with al Qaeda) who are suspected of an attack on a military medical convoy.

7. South Asia

Attempting to prove that Afghanistan is not being neglected, the US Bush administration is considering a $1 billion aid package. While that is considered, warlords have been implicated in human rights abuses and political violence. A new Human Rights Watch report "Killing You is a Very Easy Thing for Us" focuses on violence and intimidation against women. (http://www.hrw.org) Six Afghan police were killed in a Taliban/al Qaeda ambush. Continued serious border clashes have increased tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan. An exploding pen injured two Afghan boys. The good news is that poppies are not the only bumper crop -- an excellent wheat harvest is also predicted.

In the Indian state Manipur separatist rebels attacked the chief minister's convoy, injuring five, but the minister escaped. Two police pursued the rebels and were killed.

A bus bomb in Bombay killed three and injured 40. It was the fifth attack since March and may be the work of Pakistani rebel group Laskhar-e-Toiba. Following the bombing, a strike was called in protest.

The Indian National Human Rights Commission has called on the Supreme Court to order a new trial of 21 Hindus acquitted of killing 12 Muslims during the religious riots in Gujarat last year.

In Hyderabad, the government has renewed the ban on the People's War Group that it says has been successful in reducing violence.

In Indian-administered Kashmir, militants beat to death the daughter of a suspected informer.

Nepal's Maoist rebels have asked for more concessions before resuming peace talks. Requests to release three rebel leaders were met, but. Demands to restrict army movements and abrogate a counter-terrorism agreement with the US were denied. Following these measures, the rebels have agreed to resume talks, but no date has been set.

Sri Lanka's 17-month ceasefire is in jeopardy as Tamil Tiger rebels have refused to vacate a camp inside government-controlled territory.

8. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare

Technology experts warn that the critical flaw affecting nearly all versions of Microsoft Windows must be repaired immediately, using the available patch. Hackers have been looking for ways to exploit this flaw, that uses a buffer overflow to open the machine to malicious code that can allow control of the entire machine. Because of the number of susceptible machines, the impact of attacks could be exponentially worse than prior experiences.

A new advance fee fraud has been identified, involving false representation as a financial institution advertising for loans to induce advance payments.

Fraudulent identity has become an epidemic in South Africa, where a police raid recently uncovered a factory producing fake certificates. http://www.mg.co.za/Content/13.asp?ao=18088

In the US state of Illinois, identity theft has been made a felony offense

The BBC has compiled a special feature on secrecy in Britain. Start with the "A-Z of Secret Britain" at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/3093225.stm

9. Finance

The director of the US Office of Foreign Assets Control testified to the Senate that the office had attempted to impose economic sanctions against a number of Saudi groups tied to terrorism but that other agencies have prevented the measures.

Police in the UK put together an elaborate undercover money laundering operation (dubbed Operation Cotton) to capture suspected drug dealers. Ten people were charged but the court has ruled the operation was illegal.

The Kimberley Process has published the list of 54 participants that have met the monitoring requirements for making the diamond trade legal and transparent, and so combating the trade in conflict diamonds. The membership deadline was July 31. 25 countries including Brazil and Ghana did not qualify. An independent monitoring process has still not been established.

Evidence provided by Wan Min Wan Mat, in prison in Malaysia, testified by video in the Indonesian trial of Bali-bombing suspect Mukhlas. In his testimony, Wan Min claimed he had been told that some of the money for the operation had come from al Qaeda.

Three Corsican separatists have been arrested in Portugal accused of a series of bank robberies, apparently to fund the fight for Corsican independence. They are wanted in France on terrorism charges.

The US has launched a $15 million program to help stop illegal logging, sale and export of timber in developing countries. Illegal timber profits have helped finance conflicts.

Note: Finance now incorporates narcoterrorism

10. Human Rights

Belgium's parliament has given final approval to a new version of the controversial war crimes law, eliminating the universal competence clause. Upon signature by the King, it will become law.

The Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights of the UN has published "Digest Of Jurisprudence Of The UN And Regional Organizations On The Protection Of Human Rights While Countering Terrorism". It is "a compilation of findings of judicial and quasi-judicial bodies of the United Nations and regional organizations on the issue of the protection of human rights in the struggle against terrorism". http://www.unhchr.ch

There will be a new prosecutor for the War Crimes Tribunal in Rwanda. Carla Del Ponte has had responsibility for both that and the tribunal for the former Yugoslavia. Her contract for the latter will be renewed for another four years, and Rwanda will have its own full time prosecutor. Political pressures from Rwanda, concerned that she wanted to investigate crimes beyond the massacre, was a contributing factor in the decision.

Greek lawyers are filing a lawsuit in the International Criminal Court against senior UK government officials for alleged war crimes connected with the attack on Iraq.

A court in California has found that the human rights case brought by twelve Burmese against Unocal for alleged use of forced labor and using military force to support a gas pipeline can proceed.

11. Law and Legal Issues

The American Civil Liberties Union and several Islamic and Arab American groups filed a lawsuit against the Department of Justice for discriminatory investigations conducted under the USA Patriot Act.

The judge in South Africa's Boeremag trial has ruled that former president FW de Klerk does not have to testify.

Jose Bove, French anti-globalization activist, has been released from prison into house arrest.

Johannes Jacobus Fourie has been arrested and appeared in court in South Africa in connection with the hacking attack against Absa banking customers involving fraudulent transactions estimated at R500,000.

Peru has formally requested the extradition of former president Alberto Fujimori from Japan to face charges of murder, kidnapping, and grievous wounding.

Sylvestre Gacumbitsi is on trial in the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda on charges of genocide and crimes against humanity in connection with allegedly mobilizing forces for the extermination of Tutsi civilians.

Teku Kamaruzzan, Muhamad bin Usman and Amni bin Ahmad Marzuki were negotiators representing the Free Aceh Movement in talks with Indonesia. They were arrested on their way to peace talks in Tokyo on the day Indonesia began its offensive in Aceh. They have now gone on trial on charges of treason and terrorism.

The trial in Colombia of Martin McAuley, James Monaghan and Niall Connolly, accused as members of the IRA training the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) in explosives and other tactics, has ended, The judge may take from 3 weeks to several months to deliver his verdict.

Martin McKevitt's trial in Ireland on charges connected with leadership of dissident republican group Real IRA has ended and a ruling is expected in two weeks.

William Nessen, a US journalist, had been traveling with rebels in the Indonesian province of Aceh for several weeks before being arrested for immigration offenses. He has now been released.

17 US Prisoners of War held after the 1991 Gulf war have been denied collecting $653 million in damages from frozen Iraqi assets so the money could be used for the reconstruction of Iraq. The decision will be appealed.

The War Crimes Tribunal in Rwanda has handed down verdicts in the genocide trial of 105 people. Eleven were sentenced to death, 73 to life in prison, and 37 were acquitted.

Milomir Stakic has been sentenced to life in prison by the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia. This was the longest sentence handed down by the tribunal, for his actions in setting up Bosnia's detention camps and a leading architect of the ethnic cleansing campaign.

David Ward, a British citizen, has been arrested in Nagaland, India, in for alleged links to Naga separatists.

12. Transportation

US officials have warned of credible threats of new suicide hijackings over the summer. DHS issued a directive for more detailed inspection of common items that could be disguising weapons. This warning may mean that planned cuts in the numbers of screening staff will be cancelled. Foreign travelers will not be allowed to transit through the US without a visa. Testing is beginning of the new Computer Assisted Passenger Prescreening System, using less data than originally envisioned.

Italy, Britain and Australia were also included in the warning, but US officials have now corrected a report that listed Australia as a possible attack venue of al Qaeda strikes.

The US General Accounting Office issued a report of critical success factors in container screening at designated foreign seaports. http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-03-770.pdf

William Langewiesche has written an excellent article, "Anarchy at Sea: The sea is a domain increasingly beyond government control, vast and wild, where laws of nations mean little and secretive shipowners do as they please -- and where the resilient pathogens of piracy and terrorism flourish" The Atlantic Monthly, September 2003.

13. Weapons of Mass Destruction

The US Pentagon's new report to Congress on China's military capabilities says they have significantly increased the number of short-range missiles threatening Taiwan. The Chinese have denied the reports.

The US National Nuclear Security Administration Advisory Committee that provided independent oversight of the nuclear arsenal has been eliminated by the Bush administration.

The first study since 1980 of radiological effects following the atomic bomb explosion on Hiroshima confirms assessments of radiological doses, giving additional confidence in evaluating health risks. http://www.nature.com/nsu/nsu_pf/030728/030728-8.html

No anthrax was found in samples taken from a pond in Maryland that the FBI drained, searching for evidence connected with the 2001 anthrax letters.

James Hookway explored the market for radiological materials in his Wall Street Journal article, "Thai Principal Had Cesium for Sale" on August 1.

14. Recently Published

Paul Cartledge, "The Spartans: The World of the Warrior-Heroes of Ancient Greece, from Utopia to Crisis and Collapse" Overlook

Charles Enderlin, transl Susan Fairfield, "Shattered Dreams: The Failure of the Peace Process in the Middle East 1995-2002" Other Press

Aidan Hartley "The Zanzibar Chest: A Memoir of Love and War" Atlantic Monthly/Harper Collins

Baruch Kimmerling "Politicide: Ariel Sharon's War Against the Palestinians" Verso

Peter Kolchin, "American Slavery" Hill and Wang

Edward Said, "Orientalism", new edition, Vintage Books

Marat Terterov, editor, "Doing Business with Lithuania" Kogan Page

Marianne Wiggins, "Evidence of Things Unseen" Simon and Schuster"

FEATURE ARTICLE: Extracts from Foreign Policy Aspects of the War against Terrorism

This article comprises extracts from the "Efforts to disable al Qaeda and associated terrorist networks" section of the British House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee report "Foreign Policy Aspects of the War against Terrorism". The full report, with citations, is available at http://parliament.uk/parliamentary_committees/foreign_affairs_committee.cfm

"165. In late 2002... a series of deadly terrorist attacks had taken place in Kuwait, Indonesia, Kenya, Russia and Jordan. Those who perpetrated these attacks seemed likely to have had some connection to the al Qaeda network.....

166. In May this year, the US administration -- perhaps buoyed by its successful removal of the Iraqi regime -- was upbeat about progress in combating al Qaeda. On 5 May, President Bush said in a speech in Arkansas that Al Qaeda is on the run. That group of terrorists who attacked our country is slowly, but surely being decimated. Right now, about half of all the top al Qaeda operatives are either jailed or dead. In either case, they’re not a problem anymore.

167. A week after President Bush’s Arkansas speech, terrorists drove a truck bomb into a residential compound in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, killing 34 people. Then four days later, on 16 May, suicide bombers attacked five targets in Casablanca, Morocco; all twelve bombers and 29 victims died. In the assessment of US Secretary of State Colin Powell, the Saudi attack bore "all the fingerprints of an al Qaeda operation."
. . . .

172. We welcome the capture of a number of senior al Qaeda figures, in particular Khalid Sheikh Mohamed, Abu Zubaydah and Ali Abd al-Rahman al-Faqasi al-Ghamdi. We nonetheless conclude that those that remain at large—including Osama bin Laden—retain the capacity to lead and guide the organisation towards further atrocities. We further conclude that al Qaeda has dangerously large numbers of 'foot soldiers', and has demonstrated an alarming capacity to regenerate itself.

The Iraq war and al Qaeda
173. The war in Iraq was justified in part by the United Kingdom and United States on grounds of the risk that terrorists might obtain weapons of mass destruction from the Iraqi regime. On 8 March, President Bush stated in a radio address that terrorists would lose a "wealthy patron and protector" if Saddam Hussein were "fully and finally disarmed."

174. In late March, US special forces and Iraqi Kurdish militias destroyed the camps of the terrorist group Ansar al-Islam in Northern Iraq. According to the US government, Ansar al-Islam has links with al Qaeda.

175. In our December 2002 Report, we recommended that the Government "treat seriously the possibility that a war with Iraq could trigger instability in the Arab and Islamic world, and could increase the pool of recruits for al Qaeda and associated terrorist organisations there and in Western Europe." In March 2003, we asked the FCO for an assessment of the short term effects of military action against Iraq on recruitment for, and the threat from, al Qaeda and associated terrorist groups, both in the Islamic world and in Western Europe.

176. The FCO replied that "It is clear that Al Qaeda is trying to exploit events in Iraq for its own purposes. Bin Laden’s message of 11 February urged Muslims to unite in support of the Iraqi people in what he characterised as a war against Islam. He welcomed martyrdom operations against the US and Israel. We assess that, in the short term, Al Qaeda’s stance on Iraq may encourage some misguided individuals or small groups to try to commit terrorist acts, including against coalition forces in Iraq, and elsewhere in the region or further away."

177. However, the FCO estimated in late April that "In the longer term … al Qaeda’s stance on Iraq will be undermined by the benefits of disarming Iraq of weapons of mass destruction, the removal of the current Iraqi regime and evidence that the international community is making a renewed effort to advance the Middle East Peace process."

178. Professor Wilkinson is more sceptical about the possibility that the Iraq war has contributed to the broader war against terrorism. He had found "no substance" to allegations that there had been collaboration between Saddam Hussein’s government and al Qaeda. Jane Corbin had likewise "never been able to find any concrete evidence of links between al Qaeda and the Iraqi regime, certainly not organisational links

179. The war in Iraq might in fact have impeded the war against al Qaeda. Our witnesses were concerned that it might have enhanced the appeal of al Qaeda to Muslims living the Gulf region and elsewhere. Professor Wilkinson told us that most observers on counter-terrorism would accept that there was a very serious downside to the war in Iraq as far as counter-terrorism against al-Qaeda is concerned because al-Qaeda was able to use the invasion of Iraq as a propaganda weapon… They have always wanted to latch on to issues that could be exploited in very dramatic terms, and the proximity of American forces to the holy places on the Arabian Peninsula seemed to be a very early issue that they were exploiting to the full.
. . . .

Afghanistan and the 'war against terrorism'
181. Both Jane Corbin and Paul Wilkinson stressed to us the importance of stabilising Afghanistan. Jane Corbin told us that, in her view, Osama bin Laden was likely to be in Afghanistan, "in the southern or eastern portion of the country or perhaps just over the border in what are known as the tribal territories in Pakistan." She added that a little more than a year after the war against terror in Afghanistan we have not seen successful nation-building there and we have not seen security extended. This is the kind of environment in which al-Qaeda thrives and this is the kind of place that, if bin Laden were alive, he would wish to be.

Our witnesses were concerned that the measures taken since the end of the war in Afghanistan to remove the conditions in which terrorists thrive were insufficient. Paul Wilkinson argued that if we were looking at it from the point of view of defeating al-Qaeda as a network, then money spent on stabilising Afghanistan would have been, in my view, far more wisely spent than money spent on the war in Iraq. Afghanistan is in a very serious state. Warlords are becoming deeply entrenched and are siding with Taliban and al-Qaeda residues and making it far more difficult for the Karzai Government to maintain credible authority, so I think the challenge to the Afghan Interim Government is really very serious.
. . . .

183. Afghanistan was the first case of 'regime change' in the war against terrorism; Iraq is the second. The United Nations plays the leading role in the reconstruction of Afghanistan, as it did in many post-conflict situations in the 1990s. The US, with its coalition partners, is leading the operation in Iraq.

184. We conclude that Afghanistan, and now Iraq, demonstrate the profound difficulties inherent in post-conflict stabilisation and reconstruction operations. We conclude that the success of both operations is of central importance to the success of the 'war against terrorism'. We recommend that, in addition to devoting substantial resources to these specific operations, the Government review its overall capacity for post-conflict reconstruction and peace-building.
The United Nations and action to counter international terrorism
. . . .

190. We agree with Sir Jeremy Greenstock’s assertion that no country can prevent terrorism in isolation. We recommend that the Government consider carefully Sir Jeremy’s suggestion that the Counter-Terrorism Committee develop into a full-time body of terrorism experts, capable of providing support to member states over an extended period of time.

Tackling the financing of terrorist organisations
. . . .

195. We remain concerned that al Qaeda and associated organisations retain access to the funds necessary to carry out terror attacks. We recommend that the Government continue to sponsor projects to assist other states in their efforts to prevent terrorists from transferring and accessing funds, through the banking system and through charities—especially with states in the Arab world. We recommend that the Government in its response to this Report provide us with an update of its action in this crucial area.

An overall assessment of al Qaeda
196. Our witnesses felt that progress in addressing the threat from al Qaeda had been exaggerated by the Bush administration. Professor Wilkinson told us that I do not think that serious observers of al-Qaeda’s activities really did believe that the organisation was a finished organisation or that it was in such a very serious state of disarray that one could really talk about it being on the run. The implication was that it was really falling apart. I do not think that that would be an accurate description. Jane Corbin, who has also studied al Qaeda for several years, agreed that although "in the immediate months after the Americans began their war against terror in Afghanistan, there was a huge effect on al-Qaeda," the network has now been able to regroup. Jane Corbin told us that the waves of al Qaeda operatives who had been trained in Afghanistan went back to the regions from which they came—the Philippines, the Far East, North Africa and the Gulf—and formed "a second drive"

197. We conclude that, in spite of some notable progress, al Qaeda continues to pose a substantial threat to British citizens in the United Kingdom and abroad."

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