---

CONTENTS:

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK:

1. World
2. Africa
3. Americas
4. Asia Pacific
5. Europe
6. Middle East
7. South Asia
8. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare
9. Finance
10 Human Rights
11. Law and Legal Issues
12.Transporation
13. Weapons of Mass Destruction
14. Recently Published

FEATURE ARTICLE:
Iran and the NNPT

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK

---

1. World

The "axis of evil" has further declined with Iran's agreement to accede to IAEA requirements, sign an additional protocol to the NPT and suspend refinement of uranium. For details, see this week's Feature Article, below. Looking towards the other "axis" designee, the US has proposed fresh talks and a multilateral security undertaking for North Korea. Pyongyang responded with derision and insistence of a binding security treaty with the US, although they have since indicated they are prepared to consider the offer. Although North Korea tested another missile, the actual status of the purported nuclear program is unknown.

An international donors summit for the reconstruction of Iraq attracted 77 countries and has raised $13 billion in pledges. Some of this is in loans but most is grants and does not include non-cash export credits or technical assistance. With the $20 billion promised by the US, this still falls short of the $56 billion estimated necessary for rebuilding, but is considered a good start, and as much as the country can absorb at this time, given the continued state of insecurity.

In the wake of a report criticizing the UN for failing to protect the workers killed in the Baghdad bombing in August, UN Secretary General Kofi Annan has said the UN "will have to change our way of doing business" and would act on the findings in the report.

US officials will lift the curfew in Baghdad for Ramadan but this was immediately followed by series of attacks.

The United Nations Development Program (UNDP) has released the 2003 Arab Human Development Report. Last year's report pointed to the need for freedom, women's empowerment and knowledge in order to overcome development challenges. This report focuses on human capital and how to build a knowledge society. "AHDR 2003 makes it clear that, in the Arab civilization, the pursuit of knowledge is prompted by religion, culture, history and the human will to achieve success. Obstructions to this quest are the defective structures created by human beings - social, economic and above all political. Arabs must remove or reform these structures in order to take the place they deserve in the world of knowledge at the beginning of the knowledge millennium".
http://www.undp.org/rbas/ahdr/english2003.html
For an interesting discussion on this, listen to The Connection broadcast in streaming audio at http://www.theconnection.org/shows/2003/10/20031021_a_main.asp

Reduction of maternal mortality is of one of the major UN Millennium Development Goals. The latest report finds that sub-Saharan African women are 175 times more likely to die compared to those in developed countries. Most of these deaths are preventable with basic health care services.
http://www.who.int/reproductive-health/MNBH/maternal_mortality_2000/index.html

A landmark deal will provide generic AIDS drugs to developing countries at less than a third of the cost of patented versions. The agreement was brokered by former US President Clinton, between the Clinton Foundation and Aspen Pharmacare Holdings, Cipla, Ranbaxy Laboratories, and Matrix Laboratories.

---

2. Africa

Algeria's Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC) has backed al-Qaeda's jihad against the US.
Burkino Faso opposition Social Forces Front (FFS) leader Norbert Tiendrebeogo has been arrested in connection with an alleged coup plot.

Ghana's President John Kufuor will not renew states of emergency and curfews in the north, where they were imposed in March 2002. The measures followed a dispute between two ruling families in which 30 people were killed.

Liberians United for Reconciliation and Democracy (LURD) rebels have demanded the interim leader, Gyude Bryant, step down after he failed to appoint the list of five ministers LURD submitted.

Nigeria's oil-rich delta has been the scene of fresh clashes between rival tribal militias, killing four people. The attacks primarily targeted women and children.

In the self-declared republic of Somaliland, two British teachers and an Italian nun were killed this month. President Kahin blames global terrorist networks for the killings and has decided to expel all illegal immigrants.

In Sudan the peace process is moving apace but there have been mixed messages regarding the anticipated timetable. US Secretary of State Powell, participating this week, said there was agreement to conclude a deal by December, but officials say it is impossible to determine a deadline during negotiations.

In Zimbabwe a new report by Human Rights Watch food finds that food is being denied to political opponents. http://www.hrw.org/press/2003/10/zimbabwe102403.htm
The government has denied the allegations.
Zimbabwe's only independent daily newspaper reopened for the first time six weeks after being closed down, only to be shut down again after a few hours. Some 300 political protesters have been arrested and beaten.

---

3. Americas
US-led efforts to eradicate narcotics production has been linked to increasing unrest in major producer areas, including the ouster of Bolivian President Sanchez de Lozada (now in the US) as well as increasing militancy among farmers in Peru and Colombia.

Bolivia's vice president has been sworn in as the new president, Carlos Mesa. President Mesa has presented a new cabinet and appointed a special delegate to right corruption. The country is calm as they wait to see how he handles the issues that brought down Sanchez de Lozada.

The Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) has warned that Islamic Jihad may try to set up operations inside Canada.
http://www.canada.com/national/story.asp?id=4060DE7A-4666-4ACD-B82F-49566065F58B
Canada has announced a new Integrated National Security Assessment Center (INSAC) to coordinate intelligence across all sectors. http://www.sgc.gc.ca/publications/news/20031016_e.asp

Colombian rebels of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) have launched a series of attacks against government targets in the lead-up to local and provincial elections and a referendum on reforms.

In the US capital Washington DC thousands of protestors gathered to demonstrate against the occupation of Iraq and other concerns, including repeal of the Patriot Act. The fresh demonstrations reflect increasing concerns over the cost of the occupation in both rising casualties and expenses.

Controversy over the course of the conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq continue, with much conversation regarding a memorandum written by Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld criticizing tactics in the "war on terror". Seymour Hersh focuses on "How conflicts between the Bush Administration and the intelligence community marred the reporting on Iraq's weapons" in "The Stovepipe" The New Yorker, October 27. http://www.newyorker.com/fact/content/?031027fa_fact

---

4. Asia Pacific

The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meetings ended with agreement to new anti-terrorist measures including controls against shoulder-launched missiles, dismantling transnational terrorist groups, working to combat WMD proliferation, improving port security and cutting off terrorist financing. This US-led agenda proved surprising successful at the expense of the anticipated economic discussions. http://www.apecsec.org.sg/

In China, alleged Muslim separatist leader Ujimamadi Abbas ("Shirali") of the East Turkistan Islamic Jihad Organization has been executed.

China and India are holding their first ever negotiations over the disputed border region along the Himalayas, including the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh (claimed by China) and a portion of Kashmir ceded to China by Pakistan (claimed by India). India has moved closer to formally recognizing Chinese sovereignty over Tibet.

Indonesia has convinced US authorities to hand over alleged Jemaah Islamiah operations chief Hambali. This raises the possibility that he could be charged in connection with the Bali bombings.

New Zealand has passed legislation that accedes to the UN Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material and the Convention on the Marking of Plastic Explosives for the Purpose of Detection. The new law increases penalties for terrorist acts and creates new offenses ranging from malicious hoaxes to contaminating food or water; or improperly handling nuclear materials.

Vietnamese officials have downplayed new reports of US operations in Vietnam in 1967 that allege an elite unit of US soldiers mutilated and killed hundreds of unarmed villagers in 1967. The Toledo Blade newspaper in Ohio follows a 1975 investigation that war crimes had been committed. US officials say it will not reopen investigations despite the new claims. http://www.toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?Category=SRTIGERFORCE

---

5. Europe

French emergency services conducted a training exercise simulating a chemical attack in the Paris metro. This exercise comes a month after a similar drill in the London Underground.

Italian police have arrested six people connected with the recent murders of two government advisors. The people are believed part of a Red Brigades cell. The Red Brigades were a leftist group that carried out attacks in the 1970s and 1980s.

October 23 marks the first anniversary of the hostage crisis in a Moscow theater. Survivors and families of victims are angry by the failure to explain how 40 armed Chechen rebels could come to Moscow and to provide more details about the use of a supposedly non-lethal gas that was responsible for almost all of the 120 deaths.

Russia and the Ukraine are negotiating a dispute over Tuzla Island in the Kerch Strait that links the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, an area rich in oil, gas, and fish. Russia has stopped construction of a causeway linked to the Russian mainland and Ukraine is considering withdrawing troops from the island pending an environmental review the situation and negotiations over sovereignty.

Serbian General Streten Lukic is wanted by the international war crimes tribunal in The Hague for crimes against humanity committed in 1998-9 in the Kosovo conflict. Some 5,000 police demonstrated to protest the charges. In particular, they do not want him to go to The Hague to face justice but prefer Serbian authorities handle any charges. Serbian authorities continue to pursue war crimes suspect Ratko Mladic, but another operation, inspired by a tip, failed on Wednesday. Mladic has been on the run since 1995.

In Spain, the Basque regional government has approved a plan to become a free-associated state. This is meant to provide more autonomy, not to break away from Spain. The plan needs to be endorsed by the regional parliament and a referendum scheduled for 1005.

In Northern Ireland, Wednesday began with announcing elections for November 26 and a breakthrough when the IRA said a further act of decommissioning had taken place. Irish Prime Minister Bertie Ahern and British Prime Minister Blair were on the verge of holding a press conference to announce an agreement when Ulster Unionist leader David Trimble announced the IRA statement was insufficient and he was not able to announce an agreement. After this surprise announcement, Blair and Ahern shelved their prepared statements, went back for further meetings, and plan to continue with the elections.

---

6. Middle East

In the occupied Gaza Strip, the week began with another massive Israeli army raid that killed at least 14 people and wounded more than a hundred. Hamas responded with missile attacks. Israeli troops shot dead a Palestinian going into a settlement, later admitting he was not a threat and also killed an 11-year old Palestinian boy. Following these incidents, two Palestinian gunmen from Hamas and Islamic Jihad, entered a Jewish settlement and opened fire at the soldiers housing, killing three and wounding two. Further attacks followed the disclosure of a map of newly planned settlements and the extension of the security barrier into a segment of the Jordan Valley. The EU, Russia and the UN are united in opposing the wall going through the west bank, but the US has taken a new policy dropping its former opposition.

The Israeli Government invited bidders to build more than 300 new homes in Jewish settlements in the occupied territories. This bid contravenes the roadmap plan, led to widespread criticism, and contributed to more violence during the week.

In the occupied West Bank, masked gunmen from the al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigade and Islamic Jihad shot two alleged collaborators accused of betraying a wanted militant to Israeli authorities then dragged their bodies to display in public along with their taped 'confessions'.

Later in the week, Israeli troops again raided hospitals. In one, they arrested a militant said to be a member of the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades who was armed and hiding in the basement, unharmed. In the other case, a Hamas militant was critically wounded, by a bomb he was carrying, and in intensive care. Israeli army personnel removed him from the machines and took him into custody. There is concern that such raids contravene international law and that the repeated raids inside hospitals mean they are no longer neutral ground, and therefore unsafe for medical personnel.

October 23 is the 30th anniversary of two bomb attacks against US military headquarters in Beirut, Lebanon, in which more than 200 US and French soldiers were killed.

Saudi Arabian officials have cracked down further against dissidence while facing bolder efforts to make their protests heard. The Movement for Islamic Reform in Arabia, a London-based group, has organized two demonstrations this month. Saudi officials say they have arrested 600 terror suspects in the past six months.

---

7. South Asia

Afghanistan successful completion of the peace process, including disarmament and electoral registration, depends on resolving fundamental causes of insecurity. Jean-Marie Guehenno, UN Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations, explained this conclusion at his regular Security Council briefing. His report cited "the primary source of insecurity remained terrorist attacks and cross-border infiltration by suspected Taliban, Al Qaeda and Hizb-i-Islami insurgents" but that "not all incidents should be attributed to the Taliban, as other forces also benefited from instability, including narcotics traffickers". To address insecurity, the Afghan Government has undertaken reforms in the Ministry of Defense and need further reforms in other areas that remain " influenced by factional and ethnic interests". The expanded International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) and Germany's Provincial Reconstruction Team in Kunduz should also help. The schedule for the Constitution (and therefore national elections) has been delayed. The success of these processes as well as disarmament and demobilization depend on improved security. Social services, reconstruction and security require significantly greater resources, of some $6 billion a year.
http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2003/sc7904.doc.htm

India and China are holding their first ever negotiations over the disputed border region along the Himalayas, including the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh (claimed by China) and a portion of Kashmir ceded to China by Pakistan (claimed by India). India has moved closer to formally recognizing Chinese sovereignty over Tibet.

Indian Deputy Prime Minister and Hindu hard-liner LK Advani has been named as the direct negotiator with Kashmiri separatists. He has indicated it is possible to discuss some decentralization of authority but ruled out independence or merger with the Pakistan-administered portion of Kashmir. Separatists are concerned this means India has backed away from a commitment to open talks.

Nepal's Maoist rebels have continued their recent targeting of tourists through extortion of tourists in the mountainous north. A group of five British and Nepali soldiers on a Gurkha recruiting mission were kidnapped by the rebels.

Pakistani officials deny US reports that alleged al Qaeda operations leader Khalid Sheikh Mohammed killed Wall Street Journal reporter Daniel Pearl.

In Sri Lanka, tens of thousands of people, led by the opposition party, have demonstrated against the government's handling of the peace process with Tamil rebels, warning the government should not give away too much to the Tamil Tigers. Sir Lankan President Kumaratunga, (a member of the opposition party), has called for the Norwegian mediator to be withdrawn, alleging he is biased in favor of the rebels.

---

8. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare

The need for better security for critical industrial systems was emphasized in a recent speech by the US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) director Arden Bement. http://www.nist.gov/speeches/bement_102003.htm

The US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) continues to encourage companies to share cyber security details, most recently proposing this information be disclosed in Securities and Exchange commission (SEC) filings. These disclosures are unpopular in industry, and now a major insurance company, American International Group (AIG) is endorsing the approach of the Cyber Incident Detection and Data Analysis Center (CIDDAC) that bypasses DHS in favor of CIDDAC security sensors. AIG is proposing possible discounted rates to companies deploying CIDDAC sensors.
http://www.computerworld.com/securitytopics/security/story/0,10801,86209,00.html

---

9. Finance

The US Treasury has designated Mokhtar Belmokhtar, Mustapha Nasir Ait El Hadi, and Djamel Lounici, as international terrorists for their involvement in the Salafist Group for Call and Combat (GSPC). This action freezes their assets in the US and prohibits US trade. It is expected that the three men soon will be listed by the UN.

US investigations into Saudi funding of terrorist groups is detailed by Glenn R Simpson in "U.S. Details Suspicions of Islamist Funding" in The Wall Street Journal, October 20

Abdurahman Alamoud, director of the American Muslim Foundation, was arrested in September and has now been charged in US court of money laundering and fraud connected with accepting money from Libya, that the US names a state sponsor of terrorism. These relationships are described in Glenn Simpson's "Unraveling Terror's Finances" in The Wall Street Journal of October 24.

---

10. Human Rights

The United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) has published the "World's Children Report 2003" finding more than a billion children suffering from poverty, including one in five with no access to safe water. http://www.unicef.org/publications/index_4810.html

Reporters Without Borders (RSF) has issued its second annual ranking of press freedoms. They find " As in 2002, the most catastrophic situation is to be found in Asia, especially North Korea, Burma and Laos. Second from last in the ranking, Cuba is today the world's biggest prison for journalists". Their findings include the observations that " wealth and press freedom don't always go together" and that there is " General deterioration in the Arab world". They single out the US and Israel by distinguishing between their behavior at home and abroad. "They are ranked in 31st and 44th positions respectively as regards respect for freedom of expression on their own territory, but they fall to the 135th and 146th positions as regards behaviour beyond their borders." As examples, they cite "The Israeli army's repeated abuses against journalists in the occupied territories and the US army's responsibility in the death of several reporters during the war in Iraq constitute unacceptable behaviour by two nations that never stop stressing their commitment to freedom of expression".
http://www.rsf.org/article.php3?id_article=8247

---

11. Law and Legal Issues

Mahmoud Afif Abdeljalilm, a suspected al Qaeda operative, has been arrested in the Philippines on immigration charges.

Abdurahman Alamoud, director of the American Muslim Foundation, was arrested in September and has now been charged in US court of money laundering and fraud connected with accepting money from Libya, that the US names a state sponsor of terrorism.

Tayseer Alouni, an al-Jazeera journalist accused of membership in an al Qaeda cell, has been granted bail by a Spanish judge.

Agim Ceku, former commander of the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) was arrested in Kosovo on a warrant issued by Serbia but released the next day on the grounds that Serbia has no jurisdiction over Kosovo.

Vladimir Kovacevic, "Rambo", has been transferred to the custody of the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia on charges related to his actions in Dubrovnik that killed 43 people and extensively damaged the World Cultural Heritage Site city.

Major General Sriyanto Muntarsan, head of Indonesia's special forces, in on trial in Jakarta for human rights abuses connected with the shooting of a crowd of demonstrators in which ten people were killed.

---

12. Transportation

Nathaniel Travis Heatwole was arrested in connection with " smuggling box cutters with blades, a container of liquid, molding clay and matches onto a Southwest Airlines flight from Baltimore Washington International Airport (BWI)". Heatwole sent an email to the Transportation Security Administration telling them of six incidents in which he carried these items onto flights. TSA did not follow up on the emails until after the items were found by a Southwest Airlines flight crew. Heatwole characterizes his actions as acts of civil disobedience to help improve security.
http://www.iflyswa.com/about_swa/press/prindex.html
http://www.fbi.gov/dojpressrel/heatwolearrest.pdf

---

13. Weapons of Mass Destruction

The new issue of Emerging Infectious Diseases includes an article on "Risks and Benefits of Preexposure and Postexposure Smallpox Vaccination" that "presents a model and decision criteria for evaluating a person's risk of pre- or postexposure smallpox in light of serious vaccine-related adverse events (death, postvaccine encephalitis and progressive vaccinia). Even at a 1-in-10 risk of 1,000 initial smallpox cases, a person in a population of 280 million has a greater risk for serious vaccine-related adverse events than a risk for smallpox. For a healthcare worker to accept preexposure vaccination, the risk for contact with an infectious smallpox case-patient must be >1 in 100, and the probability of 1,000 initial cases must be >1 in 1,000. A member of an investigation team would accept preexposure vaccination if his or her anticipated risk of contact is 1 in 2.5 and the risk of attack is assumed to be >1 in 16,000. The only circumstances in which postexposure vaccination would not be accepted are the following: if vaccine efficacy were <1%, the risk of transmission were <1%, and (simultaneously) the risk for serious vaccine-related adverse events were >1 in 5,000.
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol9no11/03-0369.htm

---

14. Recently Published

Aegis October 2003 Terrorism Report http://www.aegisdef.com/sep2003terroristreport.htm

Peter Balakian "The Burning Tigris: The Armenian Genocide and America's Response" Harper Collins

Francis Bok with Edward Tivnan "Escape From Slavery: The True Story of My Ten Years in Captivity - and My Journey toFreedom in America" St Martins

Giles Kepel, (translator Pascale Ghazaleh), "Bad Moon Rising: A Chronicle of the Middle East Today" Saqi.

John Newhouse "Imperial America" Alfred A Knopf

Gerald Posner "Why America Slept" Random House

Bruce Schneier, "Beyond Fear: Thinking Sensibly About Security in an Uncertain World" Copernicus

---

FEATURE ARTICLE: Iran and the NNPT

Diplomacy works.

On October 21, the foreign ministers of France, Germany and the UK working together under their policy of "conditional engagement" met with Iranian authorities and agreed to settle the outstanding issues raised by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) about Iran's nuclear programs.

In a Statement ** Iran "reaffirmed that nuclear weapons have no place in Iran's defence doctrine and that its nuclear programme and activities have been exclusively in the peaceful domain. They reiterated Iran's commitment to the nuclear non-proliferation regime and informed the ministers that:

In return, the foreign ministers said that

This agreement was reached before an October 31 deadline set by the IAEA. So why the deadline, and what happens next?

Iran ratified the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) in 1970. Under this treaty, they agreed not to develop new nuclear weapons, established procedures for safeguarding nuclear materials and agreed to verification terms agreed with IAEA.

Under this agreement, Iran developed a number of programs. The largest is the development program for construction of nuclear power plants to civilian energy generation. With Russian assistance they partially completed the 1,000MW Bushehr 1 and 1,300MW Bushehr 2 power reactors, located on the Persian Gulf. These were damaged during the Iran-Iraq war and reconstruction of Bushehr 1 was started with Russian help.

Bonab and Ramsar are sites of civilian nuclear research reactors that were first inspected by IAEA in August 1997, showing no evidence of clandestine or undeclared military nuclear activity. There are two other research reactors under IAEA supervision. The University of Tehran has a 5MW reactor that was supplied by the US and fueled by Argentina. At Esfahan Nuclear Research Center there 30 KW mini research reactors and .01KW subcritical assemblies that were provided by the Chinese.

Last year, an Iranian opposition group, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), reported new nuclear facilities that had not been declared to IAEA. NCRI is a controversial group with alleged to have ties to terrorism, leading Iran and others to question the credibility of their information.

After investigation, IAEA found nothing of concern at most of the alleged facilities but in a plant at Natanz, which has a gas centrifuge uranium enrichment program, samples taken were found to contain traces of weapons-grade uranium and plutonium. While this may have been brought to the site from an overseas supplier or other inadvertent cause, its presence raised many questions. Additional questions were raised by a uranium conversion facility in development at Esfahan.

Iran denied it had a nuclear weapons program and insists that its only interest is in the peaceful civilian use of nuclear energy. IAEA asked for an additional protocol that would allow unfettered and impromptu inspections, and this demand was rejected immediately. In addition, contradictory information and misleading answers were increasing international concerns over the Iran's nuclear programs. For instance, there are undeclared imports, uranium metal and natural uranium production, missing materials, and plans for additional, previously undisclosed, facilities.

Faced with these questions the IAEA set a deadline of October 31 for resolution or further action referred to the Security Council.

US and Israeli officials have long insisted that Iran is attempting to acquire the capability to build nuclear weapons. They point to Iran's rich oil reserves making it unnecessary to invest in nuclear power generation, but Iran also has rich deposits of uranium and may want to preserve the natural resource on which its economy so heavily depends. This issue aside, US and Israeli fears are shared by Europe, Russia and others. This latter group has preferred to work with Iran to develop transparency by providing incentives in trade and information to ensure cooperation, rather than threats of preemptive military action.

The European policy of "conditional engagement" seems to have worked for the moment, but there are many ways things can go wrong. If Iran does not fully comply and satisfy IAEA, the deal will fall apart and Iran will face sanctions from the Security Council. Such a collapse could trigger a fresh nuclear crisis, with neighboring countries seeking their own nuclear deterrents. Iran borders Pakistan which has nuclear weapons, former Soviet republics with nuclear facilities, and is in range of Israel's nuclear arsenal. Should Iran proceed with a nuclear program, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and perhaps others would likely follow. It is also possible that the US or Israel could attempt preemptive action against Iran, such as bombing nuclear facilities.

Events over the next few weeks will be important, so watch this space for the latest updates.=

Further Reading: