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CONTENTS:

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK:

1. World
2. Africa
3. Americas
4. Asia Pacific
5. Europe
6. Middle East
7. South Asia
8. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare
9. Finance
10 Human Rights
11. Law and Legal Issues
12. Transportation
13. Weapons of Mass Destruction
14. Recently Published

FEATURE ARTICLE:
DNA: The Limitations of Technology

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK

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1. World

An unofficial delegation of US nuclear experts and former government officials spent five days in North Korea where they saw part of the nuclear weapons program. North Korea warned the US that it would increase the size and strength of the nuclear deterrent if there were no progress in discussions. North Korea denied pursuing a highly enriched uranium program.

New cases of SARS (associated with civet cats) are confirmed and three people have died in Vietnam from avian flu. Thousands of animals are being culled. The World Health Organization is closely monitoring the flu outbreak, whose mortality is far higher than SARS. The Royal Society met to discuss this problem, pointing out that "the frequency of epidemic outbreaks is rising due to many reasons such as increased travel, growing populations and improved methods of detection". Cases of viruses jumping from animals to humans have been occurring more frequently. Thirty new diseases emerged since 1975 and a similar number is expected in the years ahead, posing a great threat to human health. http://www.royalsoc.ac.uk/events/discussion_meetings/level_2/jan_sars04.html There is also a significant risk that polio will begin to spread following setbacks to the vaccination program in Nigeria. http://www.who.int/features/2004/polio/en/ The battle against the HIV/AIDS pandemic will be supported by the new Global Media AIDS Initiative. http://www.unaids.org/Unaids/EN/Events/Global_Media_AIDS_Initiative.asp

The World Social Forum is underway in Bombay, India. Thousands of anti-globalization activists have gathered for discussions and protests over issues such as unequal trade, as a counterpart and contrast to the World Trade Organization. http://www.wsfindia.org/ The US General Accounting Office released a report on the outcome of the September 2003 Cancun Ministerial Conference pointing to sharp divisions between developed and developing country priorities. http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-04-250

Al Qaeda has published a new online terrorist manual. It includes a number of articles and appears to be planned as a monthly publication. See Jason Burke's report in The Observer, January 18 http://observer.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,6903,1125877,00.html

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2. Africa

Burundi's army and rebel National Liberation Forces (FNL) fought in the region around Bujumbura, displacing 10,000 civilians.

Ivory Coast President Gbagbo and rebel leader Soro discussed next steps in the peace process. In the troubled west ethnic clashes killed 18.

Liberia's eastern region now has support from UN peacekeeping troops, evidence of meaningful progress in the peace process. This is a welcome advance following the disarmament fiasco in which the peacekeepers had not planned for the thousands of fighters attempting to exchange their arms for payment.

Mauritania is hosting a US military team that is providing anti-terrorism training. Other countries in the Sahel will receive similar training.

In Nigeria's oil rich delta, ethnic Itsekiri attacked a boat of Ijaw, killing as many as 18 people, mostly women. Nigerian government troops fought Ijaw militants in the Niger delta, killing at least ten militiamen. Anna Borzello writes of "Tracking down Nigeria's 'Taleban' sect" in BBC News, January 14 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/3393963.stm

Sudan's peace negotiations are focused on the disputed regions of Abyei, the Nuba Mountains and the Blue Nile. The government forcibly closed refugee camps in western Darfur, leaving more than 10,000 people without food, water or other basic needs.

Zanzibar celebrated the 40th anniversary of its revolution on January 12.

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3. Americas

Leaders of 34 nations in the Western Hemisphere revealed a growing economic chasm and little possibility or reconciliation, but the meeting did end with a general pledge to support a free trade area for the Americas.

Haitian President Jean Bertrand Aristide began ruling by decree this week. Tens of thousands of Haitians were on the streets demonstrating against him in a series of violent clashes.

The World Trade Organization has raised concerns with the US about increased deficits, industry subsidies, and new security measures that are interfering with free trade. http://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/tp226_e.htm This echoes concerns published by the International Monetary Fund earlier this month.

The US Department of Homeland Security released four new building science guidelines to make buildings more resistant to attack. The Federal Emergency Management Association developed the series. http://www.fema.gov/news/newsrelease.fema?id=10407

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4. Asia Pacific

Burmese separatist rebels of the Karen Liberation Army (KNU) are holding discussions with the military junta regarding a mutual ceasefire and possible peace deal.

Malaysian Prime Minister Badawi said he had no evidence that recent violence at the Thai border was linked to Jemaah Islamiah or other international terrorist groups.

Malaysia and Thailand have begun Operation Goodwill: joint border patrols in response to the recent attacks. The last time they combined patrols was to prevent cross-border attacks by Malaysian insurgents in the 1970s.

Philippine authorities will resume peace talks with communist rebels of the New People's Army (NPA) next month. They are also moving towards talks with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front.

Taiwan's President Chen Shui-bian will hold a referendum asking questions about Chine, including whether Taiwan should buy more anti-missile equipment and resume talks with China. The text was worded in general terms to help defuse Chinese criticism. The referendum will he held in March at the same time as presidential elections.

Thai authorities have variously linked bandits and Muslim separatists to a series of attacks in the south. Arrest warrants for four people have been released. Thailand's Prime Minister Shinawatra has promised to end poverty in the south and investigate Muslim schools.

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5. Europe

French police arrested eight suspects they believe may be members of an al Qaeda- linked Islamist cell planning an attack using botulism or ricin.

Greece continues to increase security measures in preparation for the summer Olympics. The US is installing radiation detectors to help combat any potential dirty bomb.

Russian authorities will close all Chechen refugee camps in Ingushetia two weeks before presidential elections in March. They had been warned to leave last October but 50,000 of the 75,000 remain and have been given no support for resettlement.

Swiss authorities who arrested eight suspected al Qaeda supporters say that stored mobile phone numbers played a significant role in the investigation.

Britain's Foreign Office plans to relocate embassies and consulates to safer sites to protect from attacks like the Istanbul suicide bombings last November.

The Northern Ireland Secretary Paul Murphy has agreed to publish the Cory report that examined security forces collusion into eight controversial murders, including Pat Finucane, Robert Hamill, Billy Wright and Rosemary Nelson. The Irish government has already published Cory's reports into the deaths of Royal Ulster Constabulary officers Harry Breen and Bob Buchanan as well as the murder of Lord Maurice Gibson and his wife. Murphy says the Cory report will be released once legal issues are resolved.

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6. Middle East

A suicide bomber at the Erez crossing terminal with the Gaza Strip killed four Israelis (three soldiers and one civilian) on January 14. The bomber was a 22-year-old Palestinian mother of two. Hamas and the al Aqsa Martyrs brigade claimed responsibility. It was the first time Hamas used a woman bomber. The total blockade imposed after the bombing has been eased but it is expected that a new anti-terror initiative, including assassinations, will resume next week. Israel's defense minister said that Hamas' spiritual leader, Sheikh Ahmad Yassin, is "marked for death".

Iranian reformist members of parliament continue a sit-in while they wait for concessions by the conservative Guardian Council that has banned more than 3,000 candidates from standing in next month's elections.

In Iraq, US plans to transfer power to an unelected government body by July received a major setback when a leading Islamic cleric and thousands of his supporters demonstrated in favor of democratic elections. The occupation administrator, Paul Bremer, has returned to Washington for discussions and US officials are attempting to convince the UN to take on a greater role. This effort received a major setback today after a large car bomb exploded outside the coalition headquarters n Baghdad, killing at least 20 and injuring more than 60, mostly Iraqis, in an apparent suicide attack. On top of other insurgent bombings, ambushes, and overall insecurity, it will be difficult to attract additional support. Investigation into the mortar shells in Iraq found by Danish troops revealed they contained no chemical agents.

Saudi Arabian authorities have discovered militant training camps affiliated with al Qaeda located in remote parts of the country.

Syrian leader Bashar Assad dismissed Israeli offers of peace talks, insisting that negotiations would only resume at the point they had broken off in 2000, with the return of most of the Golan Heights.

In the West Bank, Palestinian gunmen opened fire on a car, killing an Israeli.

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7. South Asia

The UN Special Representative to Afghanistan gave his final briefing to the Security Council. He said that the successful loya jirga meant it is even more important for the international community to deal with the onerous security challenges if there is a chance of preventing a Taliban return and of holding elections in June. http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2004/sc7977.doc.htm
Meanwhile, attacks continue and the death toll for US forces has now exceeded 100. UNICEF has set a target of demobilizing 5,000 child soldiers this year.

In Sylhet, Bangladesh a bomb attack on a shrine killed three people and injured 30. Another bomb in Khulna killed a prominent journalist as he rode in a rickshaw. The bomb was thrown by an unknown assailant and is the latest in a series of attacks. Clashes between two rival student groups in Rajshahi left 20 students injured and shut down the university.

In Indian-administered Kashmir, Indian troops shot dead Ghulam Rasool Dar, commander of the militant Hizbul Mujahideen. Moderates of the All Party Hurriyat Conference, a separatist alliance, have named a 5-person team for talks with the Indian government.

Birgunj, Nepal's mayor, Gopal Giri, has been shot dead by suspected Maoist rebels.

In Karachi, Pakistan a car bomb exploded outside a bible society injuring 12 and damaging a church. Officials believe that law enforcement agencies, not Christian interests, were the target. Tribal leaders in South Waziristan handed over 20 people, accused of sheltering al Qaeda and Taleban, to national authorities.

Sri Lankan President Kumaratunga extended her term in office by an extra year. She claimed a second investiture had been held with only the chief justice and foreign minister present in 2000. The peace process remains on hold until the power struggle between the president and Prime Minister is resolved.

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8. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare

Microsoft released the first 2004 security bulletin, containing three alerts including a critical vulnerability related to the firewall and web cache Internet Security and Acceleration Server. A more serious threat remains from the Internet Explorer bug that allows a simple and alarmingly effective way to change the display of URLs, making phishing schemes much more difficult to detect. Microsoft has advised that to avoid the risk of this dangerous flaw people should type URLs themselves rather than clicking on links.

The Anti-Phishing Working Group has prepared a white paper on "Proposed Solutions to Address the Threat of Email Spoofing Scams" http://www.anti-phishing.org/apwg.htm

The US General Accounting Office released "Information Security: Status of Federal Public Key Infrastructure Activities at Major Federal Departments and Agencies". They looked at a total of 89 PKI initiatives representing an investment of about $1 billion. GAO finds major challenges to the implementation include a lack of policy and guidance, particularly around technical standards and legal issues; uncertain budget and funding; significant challenges of interoperability; the need for training; and significant administrative burdens. http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-04-157

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9. Finance

The UK Financial Services Authority (FSA) fined Bank of Scotland GPB1,250,000 for failing to keep proper customer identification records under FSA money laundering rules. http://www.fsa.gov.uk/pubs/press/2004/001.html

The US Senate Finance Committee has asked the Internal Revenue Service for records on Muslim charities as part of an investigation into terrorist financing. http://usinfo.state.gov/topical/pol/terror/texts/04011403.htm

In a briefing to the UN Security Council, the 1267 Committee that oversees sanctions against al Qaeda and the Taliban are hindered by the lack of reports. Only 93 of 191 member states have submitted documents. http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=9414&Cr=taliban&Cr1=qaida (includes video of the meeting.)

Financial Times has published Part 3 of FT Understanding "Corporate Governance" (January 16) http://www.ft.com/governance

Human Rights Watch finds that " More than four billion dollars in state oil revenue disappeared from Angolan government coffers from 1997-2002, roughly equal to the entire sum the government spent on all social programs in the same period." in their new report "Some Transparency, No Accountability". http://www.hrw.org/reports/2004/angola0104/
The Angolan government insists any discrepancies are the result of accounting problems not corruption and mismanagement.

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10. Human Rights

The Coalition to Stop the Use of Child Soldiers briefed the UN Security Council and suggested next steps to address child recruitment and use.
http://www.child-soldiers.org

Amnesty International reports that Singapore has the highest per capita execution rate in the world. They say "A UN Report found that Singapore had three times the number of executions, relative to the size of its population, as the next country on the list - Saudi Arabia.... The small city-state has hanged more than 400 prisoners in the last 13 years". The new report "Singapore: The death penalty: A hidden toll of executions" looks at "how the death penalty often falls disproportionately and arbitrarily on the most marginalized or vulnerable members of society". http://web.amnesty.org/library/Index/ENGASA360022004

Lebanon has resumed capital punishment with three executions for the first time since 1998.

Another Amnesty report, "Back in the Spotlight - Allegations of police ill-treatment and excessive use of force in Germany" looks at "a persistent pattern of alleged ill-treatment and excessive use of force by police officers in Germany". http://web.amnesty.org/pages/ENGEUR230022004

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11. Law and Legal Issues

Rita Algranati, convicted in absentia of the kidnap/murder of Prime Minister Aldo Moro in 1978 was detained in Egypt when trying to board a plane with false identification. She was accompanies by Maurizio Falessi, convicted for attempted murder and other crimes. Both are associated with the Red Brigades and have been flown to Rome.

Mark John Avery has been granted bail in Australian court after the magistrate ruled his improvised bomb was not intended to harm anyone. Avery is charged with explosives offenses and trespassing. He detonated an ammonium nitrate bomb with a sparkler then ran away, narrowly escaping injury.

In the case of Amy Bettis, et al v. Islamic Republic of Iran and Iranian Ministry of Information and Security the US federal appeals court found that Congress never authorized claims against foreign governments for financing or assisting terrorists although they were allowed to sue the agents and officers of the governments. The case was in connection with a suit by the family of a man who had been held hostage by Hezbollah for 1,908 days.

Fawaz Mohammed Damrah, head of the Islamic Center of Cleveland, has been arrested in Ohio US for making false statements when applying for citizenship ten years ago, including withholding his association with Palestinian Islamic Jihad and other groups. He pleaded not guilty and has been released on bail.

Adam Dekkushev and Yusuf Krymshamkhalov were sentenced to life in prison for carrying out a series of apartment block bombings in Moscow and Volgodonsk. The 1999 attacks were on behalf of Chechen rebels.

Jean-Claude Duperval, a commander under Haiti's military dictatorship, has been arrested in Florida US where he has been working on boats in Disney World and will be deported. He was convicted in absentia in 2000 for a 1994 massacre in which 25 were killed.

Ahmad al-Halabi, a Senior Airman and Arabic translator at Camp X-Ray in Guantanamo Bay was formally arraigned in military court on 17 charges of espionage, lying and disobeying orders.

Jan Willem Matser, former Eastern Europe advisor to NATO, is on trial in the Netherlands on charges of laundering $200 million obtained from drug-trafficking operations in Colombia. He and two other people were planning to invest in Romanian enterprises.

Mijailo Mijalilovic has been formally charged with the murder of Swedish Foreign Minister Anna Lindh and his trial has opened.

Slobodan Milosevic's war crimes trial in The Hague has resumed.

Arcangel de Jesus Henao Montoya, alleged leader of the Norte de Valle drug cartel, has been extradited from Panama to the US.

John Rea and Pieter Rea were sentenced to 15 years in prison for membership in the separatist Republic of South Maluku (RMS) movement in Indonesia. Six others were sentenced to 13 years and one for 30 months.

Alfred Schonenberg, Ludwig Sonntag and Gerhard Sommer, former SS officers, will be tried in connection with a massacre of some 560 civilians in Tuscany in 1944. The trial in Italy will begin April 20.

Khaled Sumeisi was found guilty of spying on Iraqi dissidents in the US on behalf of Saddam Hussein. Sentencing will be on March 30.

The US Supreme Court has agreed to rule on the government's power to detain indefinitely aliens whose home countries cannot or will not take them back. The case will be heard on an expedited schedule with a decision likely by July. The Court has allowed the Bush administration to keep secret the names and other details of people detained on suspicion after the September 11 attacks.

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12. Transportation

European Commission officials warned the US of strong opposition to the use of sky marshals, gaining concessions that airlines will not be banned because they fly without sky marshals as long as other security measures are satisfactory.

The British government is launching an inquiry after a man who had flown from Dulles airport in Washington was found to be carrying ammunition. He was detained under the Firearms Act and subsequently under the Terrorism Act. Dulles has been under heightened security after September 11 attacks in which one of the planes departed from Dulles.

Brazilian police arrested an American Airlines pilot for making an obscene gesture in protest against Brazil's practice of taking photos and fingerprints to match the US security regulations.

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13. Weapons of Mass Destruction

A small amount of low-level radioactive uranium oxide was found in a shipping container in Rotterdam. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is comparing the material to samples taken from a dismantled Iraqi uranium processing plant to see whether it was left behind after the cleanup. Investigation into the mortar shells in Iraq found by Danish troops revealed they contained no chemical agents.

IAA inspectors investigating Libya's nuclear program have found they were able to purchase complete sets of uranium enrichment centrifuges on the international black market.

The World Health Organization has found evidence that civet cats carry SARS. In The Lancet 2004; 363: 234-36, Robert Webster writes about "Wet markets - a continuing source of severe acute respiratory syndrome and influenza?" http://www.thelancet.com/journal/vol363/iss9404/full/llan.363.9404.editorial_and_review.28394.1 (subscribers only)

The Lancet has also published a viewpoint article suggesting the use of inexpensive but less effective interventions in malaria treatment constitute malpractice. Amir Attaran et al "WHO, the Global Fund, and medical malpractice in malaria treatment" 2004; 363: 237-40 http://www.thelancet.com/journal/vol363/iss9404/full/llan.363.9404.editorial_and_review.28398.1 (subscribers only)

Food insecurity in Zimbabwe has another consequence. The number of people suffering from anthrax has doubled from 50 to 100 in a week. People are more likely to eat infected animals.

22 leading AIDS researchers writing in Science http://www.scienceonline.org argue that the large-scale vaccine test underway in Thailand that involves 16,000 volunteers won't work, wastes money, and could make future testing more difficult.

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14. Recently Published

Robert Bolano, transl Chris Andrews, "By Night in Chile", New Directions

Thomas Doherty, "Cold War, Cool Medium: Television, McCarthyism and American Culture" Columbia University Press

Ted Morgan, "Reds: McCarthyism in 20th-Century America" Random House

William Shawcross, "Allies: The US, Britain, Europe, and the War in Iraq" Public Affairs

Anthony D. Smith "Chosen Peoples: Sacred Sources of national Identity: Oxford University Press

Shashi Tharoor, "Nehru: The Invention of India" Arcade Publishing

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FEATURE ARTICLE: DNA: The Limitations of Technology

Last week we talked about the launch of the US-VISIT program and its use of biometrics. Another method of personal identification is with Deoxyribonucleic Acid (DNA). While biometric measures (like fingerprint, retinal, hand-geometry or facial identification) are automatic, DNA identification required taking a sample and then measuring it. Similarly, biometrics may be used to connect to personal records on their own they don't tell you anything personal. DNA, in contrast, may provide personal information. Tests exist now to identify redheads with 84 percent accuracy and are in development to identify eye and skin color and facial structure.

DNA is different in another way: its unique molecular structure defines individual characteristics. DNA can be recovered from the body with a small sample of blood, hair, skin or saliva processed through a series of steps that isolate specific sections of DNA to create a "DNA fingerprint" that looks similar to a bar code. It can then be used in healthcare applications, such as genetic disease screening and preemptive treatment. It is also used in law enforcement and the military. The military can collect DNA profiles to help identify casualties or people missing in action, while law enforcement uses DNA testing in several ways.

One of the most common and accepted uses of DNA testing is to establish paternity in child custody and support litigation and it is increasingly used as a tool of forensic investigation.

DNA was first introduced as forensic evidence in 1986, when it was used in several rape cases. At the outset, it was viewed as an infallible tool; today the nuances of DNA testing are better understood.

The first serious challenge to DNA testing was in a murder case, People v. Castro. The 1989 case never went to trial (Castro pleaded guilty). In pretrial hearings, MIT geneticist Eric Lander gave extensive evidence of problems with testing procedures and statistical calculations that led the court to rule the DNA evidence was inadmissible. For example, no protocol was specified in the analysis and the samples being matched were already known not tested blind.

The court found that DNA identification and its forensic use are generally acceptable but that they had to determine whether laboratory testing methodology was in accordance with scientific standards and reliable. This and subsequent rulings established the need for extensive discovery that includes all laboratory and testing records, preferably in a way that would allow test duplication.

New standardized procedures and guidelines, proficiency testing and increased automation fixed many of these procedural problems, but errors still occur.

Human error is the most common, including mixing up samples and errors in calculations. Bad data analysis is also very prevalent, particularly with cases that require more than an automated calculation of probabilities. Connected with this is the problem of sample degradation, whether at a crime scene or because of improper collection or storage. Similarly, accuracy of a match depends partly on accuracy of the sample against which the comparison is being made.

Another common error is contamination of samples. Again this can happen when a sample is collected or at the lab. The consequences of this become more important when greater detail is necessary. The use of replication techniques like Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) means that a single sample can be processed repeatedly, increasing the chance of errors. Sending samples to different labs helps limit the impact of this type of error.

Capacity continues to be a problem with DNA testing. The US Department of Justice surveys publicly operated labs. In 1997 there were 6,800 unprocessed cases and 287,000 unprocessed convicted offender samples. In 1998 there was a backlog in 69 percent of the 108 participating laboratories. In 2000 there were 31,000 subject cases, up from 21,000 cases in 1999. At the beginning of 2001, 81 percent of DNA crime labs had backlogs of 16,081 subject cases and 265,329 convicted offender samples.

Progress in standardization, documentation and automation has had little impact on the most substantial issue of DNA testing: the validity of statistical sampling. In the O. J. Simpson trial, arguments over laboratory errors and statistical accuracy contributed to his acquittal. In part, this is due to the complexity of the subject and the difficulty of explaining it to a jury. More important, there are unresolved questions of the accuracy of population markers.

DNA is not matched piece by piece but with selected samples. Matches depend on the accuracy of a sample, the size/number of the sample, and how it is compared. Current methodologies assume that there is a standard frequency of DNA markers across the population. Increasingly, investigations indicate that there are distinctions by ethnic subgroups that can have a significant impact on the estimation of frequency. Since there is no standard genetic variation across the entire population, statistical matches can be significantly affected and makes it more important to develop population databases segmented by ethnicity.

This also points to the fact that the number of markers tested increases the statistical power of the analysis. Increasing samples also increases the risk of error, so the practice of testing at multiple labs is also important.

Since DNA testing has become relatively reliable and widely used, there has been a tendency for cases to rely of the physical evidence at the expense of the entire weight of the evidence. Testing has led to the vindication of innocent people, including many who had been sentenced to death. But looking at DNA evidence after the fact can also distort a case. The fundamentals of motive, quality of police work, considerations of reasonable doubt and so forth are essential elements that contribute to the accuracy and fairness of a verdict. Physical evidence, however compelling, is only one factor and does not, on its own, determine guilt.

The death penalty is a particularly emotive topic and the recent connection between it and exoneration based on DNA evidence has led to a peculiar application. In Massachusetts, US, the governor has called for a commission to design a death penalty system that can prevent the conviction of innocent people. This is a bizarre exercise. Technology supports but never resolves public policy issues; there is no such thing as a foolproof death penalty. Instead this is an example of the erroneous reliance of physical evidence and an apparent dismissal of the areas of uncertainty even in the best DNA testing. Equally important, the US states that have placed a moratorium on the death penalty have done so because it has been clearly demonstrated that it is imposed unequally. DNA testing will do nothing to solve that problem. On a purely practical note, DNA evidence is not available in all cases.

Another controversial area of public policy is in the lack of definition around database DNA collection and storage. There is no consistency in the types of offenders or offenses that are deemed serious enough for officials to collect, maintain and share DNA samples There is no requirement to destroy samples from people who were unconnected with an investigation or innocent of a charge. There are no limitations set out over the use of the data to explore family relationships. Osama bin Laden's DNA profile was established by samples from his relatives. The same thing could be done with any individual or any family. There are no policies regarding whether, for example, such a match would constitute probable cause to investigate other family members. There are a number of programs now to capture DNA and other biometric profiles of children to help identify them in the unlikely event they are lost or stolen. For what else can this data be used?

The technology for DNA fingerprinting does not determine the results of these public policy decisions. But given how personal and sensitive this information is, and how far intrusions into DNA analysis could extend in the future, it is important to resolve these issues in advance, not after the damage has been done.

Further Reading: