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CONTENTS:

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK:

1. World
2. Africa
3. Americas
4. Asia Pacific
5. Europe
6. Middle East
7. South Asia
8. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare
9. Finance
10 Human Rights
11. Law and Legal Issues
12. Transportation
13. Weapons of Mass Destruction
14. Recently Published

FEATURE ARTICLE:
From Dossiers to Deconstruction

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK

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1. World

The UN Conference on Trade and Development has published a report on "Foreign Direct Investment and Performance Requirements: New Evidence From Selected Countries". It finds that "The continuous globalization of the world economy poses new challenges for the governance of economic activities" and reviews the impact of foreign direct investment by reviewing the experience of the developed world and four developing countries. http://www.unctad.org/Templates/webflyer.asp?docid=4378&intItemID=2068&lang=1

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has called for a mass cull of birds exposed to avian influenza as the only effective way to stamp out the highly contagious virus. Already affecting 10 countries in Asia, they fear that mass culling is not taking place quickly enough to contain spread of the virus. With a number of human infections, the worst case scenario is for human-to-human infections to emerge. More research on the SARS virus shows how rapidly this evolution can occur. World Health Organization officials are also sounding the alarm, with at least eight human deaths confirmed, and are investigating possible human transmission in Vietnam.

With renewed debate this week over intelligence regarding Iraq (see Feature Article below) questions have also been raised regarding the situation in North Korea. In this case, as with Libya, some experts are warning that the threat posed by North Korea's nuclear program may have been underestimated, not exaggerated.

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2. Africa

Algeria's peace talks have been suspended. The Berber minority, a fifth of the population, wants their culture and their Tamazight language to be recognized equally with Arabic. The government has proposed a national referendum that would be likely to maintain Arabic as the sole national language. Elections planned for April are already facing charges of irregularities; a state of emergency remains in place.

Cameroon and Nigeria have met for further discussions on implementing the International Court of Justice border ruling. The first step was completed in December with an exchange of 32 villages to Cameroon and one to Nigeria. Now the rest of the common border, including the possible oil reserves of the Bakassi peninsula, will be demarcated.

Chad's border with Sudan has become increasingly dangerous with a growing refugee crisis generated by a flood of people fleeing fighting in the Darfur region of Sudan that has killed hundreds. On Thursday, the Sudanese military bombed a border town inside Chad, killing two and injuring 15. Sudanese forces eventually captured the town on the Sudanese side of the border that had been held by rebels of the Justice and Equality Movement, not part of the peace agreement between the Sudanese government and rebels of the Sudan People's Liberation Army.

In northern Ivory Coast, held by rebel forces, one hospital has seen an HIV prevalence rate of more than fifty percent.

Liberian rebel groups have backed away from their call to remove Gyude Bruyant as the transitional president.

Libya has begun dismantling its nuclear program. Many of the components have been airlifted to the US.

Moroccan police raided two villages in a hunt for suspected Islamic fundamentalists, an operation that has continued since the Casablanca bombings last May. Four officers were injured, 35 people arrested, including suspected members of Salafiya Jihadia, and explosives and forgery equipment were found.

Nigeria's ethnic conflict in the Niger Delta continued with fighting between Itsekiri and Ijaw that killed at least five.

Somali's faction leaders have agreed on a landmark peace deal that ends the factional fighting that began in 1991. It sets out how to choose a parliament and then elect a president. Interim President Salat has said he will step aside when the process is completed in the next couple of months.

Ugandan President Museveni has referred the situation with the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) to the International Criminal Court. The government's Amnesty Commission warns this could make a peaceful settlement impossible. Journalists from The Monitor have rejected defense ministry claims of collaboration with LRA.

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3. Americas

Brazilian government officials have moved into a farm occupied by indigenous people to negotiate the occupation and head off forced evictions or violence with local cattle ranchers. Armed police are also hoping to contain the situation with patrols.

Dominican Republic protestors over government policies clashed with police, killing up to eight and injuring more than 60. The protests coincided with a 2-day national strike.

In Haiti, protests are growing larger and the violence has claimed over 50 lives in the past few months. Last week, one man died in a clash with police while a student was killed when a tear gas canister penetrated his back.

The US has released three boys aged between 13 and 15 who had been held in Guantanamo Bay for more than a year, saying they no longer represent a threat. They were repatriated to unknown countries of origin.

The National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States held their seventh public hearing, focusing on border and aviation security.
http://www.9-11commission.gov/hearings/hearing7.htm

The National Security Archive has updated the Taliban file. New documents show: "The U.S. government pressed the Taliban to expel Usama bin Laden over 30 times between 1996, when the Taliban took Kabul, and the summer of 2001, but the talks were always fruitless and only three of the approaches took place in the first year of the Bush administration...". http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB97/index3.htm

Venezuelan planes struck near the Colombian border to drive back a force of right-wing paramilitaries that had crossed the border and fought with a Venezuelan National Guard patrol. President Chavez says that if the election authorities call a referendum he will allow it to proceed, including international observers.

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4. Asia Pacific

Indonesia's former defense minister, General Wiranto, has emerged as a leading presidential candidate. He was indicted by UN prosecutors for his alleged responsibility for the 1999 violence in East Timor, but Indonesia seems unlikely to hand him over for trial.

The Philippine government has arrested five junior army officers for allegedly inciting rebellion.

Thailand's three southern provinces, Pattani, Yala and Narathiwat, remain under martial law as attacks persist, most recently against Buddhist monks. More than a thousand schools have been closed in response to threatening leaflets.

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5. Europe

Bosnian top administrator, Lord Ashdown, has ordered reunification of Mostar. The city has been divided between Croat and Muslin sides since 1993.

France's city of Nantes has seen a series of three bombs in the last two weeks directed against the first Muslim prefect, Aissa Dermouche. The bombs have caused only collateral damage, but the motive presents a mystery in which political and racial motives are under consideration.

Georgia's new President, Mikhail Saakashvili, took office. He is discussing joint patrols with Russia along the Chechen border. He also wants Russian bases removed in favor of a US presence. The UN observer mission, stationed at the ceasefire line with Abkhazia, has been extended through July.

Greek anarchists demonstrated against the Olympics. About 150 people including members of the Greek Social Forum marched in Thessaloniki.

Northern Ireland police have arrested a man and a woman, both foreign nationals, under terrorism laws, in connection with an international investigation.

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6. Middle East

In the occupied Gaza Strip, Israeli Defense Forces conducted operations aimed against Islamic Jihad. In the process, five suspected militants and three civilian cement workers and an 11-year-old boy were killed and seven others wounded. At the end of the week, Israeli troops shot dead two Palestinians armed with explosives and a grenade as they walked towards a Jewish settlement.

In Iran, disputes over the candidate list for upcoming parliamentary elections have intensified. More than 100 members of parliament have resigned to protest the thousands of candidates that the Guardian Council had disqualified.

In Iraq, the head of US Central Command General Abnizaid said he expects violence by insurgents to escalate during the transfer of sovereignty. UN experts are expected in the country shortly to evaluate the possibilities for free and fair elections by the end of June, a schedule insisted upon by the US. Lieutenant General Sanchez said the capture of senior al Qaeda member Hassan Ghul was evidence that al Qaeda was attempting to establish itself in the country. The death toll rose sharply in January, although the number of attacks declined. Fatalities included downed helicopters, shootings, bombings and suicide attacks.

The worst attack occurred today, when two suicide bombers attacked offices of the two main Kurdish parties in northern Iraq, including senior government officials. The attacks came when people had gathered to mark the Muslim holiday of Eid. 57 bodies have been removed so far, but the death rate is expected to exceed a hundred and more than 200 have been injured. No one has claimed responsibility but Islamic extremists are suspected. In another incident today, twenty looters were killed when a munitions depot exploded.

In Israel, a suicide bomber on a bus in central Jerusalem, near the Prime Minister's residence on Gaza Road, killed himself (a Palestinian policeman) and eleven people on the bus. More than 50 were injured. Al Aqsa Martyr's Brigades and Hamas claimed responsibility. Israel's Foreign Ministry has posted video coverage of the attack.

Saudi police raided two locations in Riyadh that contained a booby-trapped car and other equipment associated with a suspected terrorist hideout. Five security agents were killed in a shootout during another raid.

In response to Thursday's suicide bombing, Israel Defense Forces raided the West Bank town Bethlehem. Over the course of two days they made a number of arrests and blew up the home of the family of the bomber. An armed militant, Jihad Sweety, was shot dead in a confrontation with soldiers attempting to arrest him.

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7. South Asia

Afghanistan's President Hamid Karzai signed the new constitution, which is now in effect. It includes a presidential system of government with a bicameral legislature, equal rights for women, and a judicial system in accordance with Islam. Elections planned for later this year face major challenges due to lack of promised international aid and the poor security situation. A series of suicide attacks last week may indicate a serious change in tactics on he part of opposition Taliban, al Qaeda or other forces.

India and Pakistan will hold talks February 16-18, including Kashmir and other bilateral issues.

Maldives President Gayoom announced the findings of a commission that looked into security forces that had shot dead three and beaten to death another prisoner last September, prompting massive street riots. The commission found the shootings illegal and President Gayoom promised the guards would be prosecuted. Human rights groups say this is not enough and that all political prisoners should be released.

In Nepal, violent anti-monarchy protests continue. Fifteen Nepalese soldiers have been arrested on human rights charges and other cases are being investigated.

Pakistan's investigations into the sale of nuclear secrets to Iran, Libya and elsewhere has led to the dismissal of leading scientist and national hero Abdul Qadeer Khan, from his post as a government advisor. He and a top aide may be prosecuted under the Official Secrets Act. The investigation has revealed payment allegedly in exchange for the sensitive information. Pakistan defends the security of its nuclear weapons.

In Sri Lanka there have been a series of attacks (at least 30 since November) against churches following a Buddhist campaign against unethical Christian conversions that seems to have spread to a broader anti-Christian attack.

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8. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare

The Mydoom worm and Mydoom.B variant continues to spread, constituting up to a third of worldwide email traffic at peak volumes. It has become the most damaging such attack, shutting down the SO website. Two companies targeted by mydoom, Microsoft and SCO, have offered rewards of $250,000 to find the virus writer.

The National Cyber Security Division (NCSD) of the US Department of Homeland Security has launched the National Cyber Alert System to provide information and products about cyber incidents and attacks. http://www.us-cert.gov/

Another evaluation of electronic voting systems has revealed security flaws. http://www.raba.com/text/press/TA_Report_AccuVote.pdf
For background to this topic, see the Jan/Feb issue of IEEE Security and Privacy. http://www.computer.org/security/

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9. Finance

The UN has imposed sanctions on branches of Haramain Islamic Foundation in Indonesia, Pakistan, Kenya and Tanzania. Sanctions against Taliban and al Qaeda have also been strengthened, addressing specific properties other than bank accounts. http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2004/sc7995.doc.htm

The UN Security Council's Counter Terrorism Committee (CTC) reports on serious obstacles. For example, "Some States argue that passing anti-money laundering legislation is enough to prevent the financing of terrorism, but the transfers of terrorist funds 'have different characteristics from other criminal funds (for example, they may have a legal origin)'.... Efforts to prevent the financing of terrorism are therefore undermined by the lack of transparency of international financial transactions and the weakness of national legislation to prevent inflows of criminal money". In addition, "Measures to improve State control over illegal or even informal financing systems should be considered as essential complements to the present banking regulations.... trafficking of drugs, weapons and contraband generated by organized crime often constitutes a source of financing for terrorists'. http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=9629&Cr=terror&Cr1=

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), is held a "Legislative Drafting Workshop on Anti-Money Laundering Measures: Responding to the Revised FATF 40 Recommendations" workshop, January 26 - 30, 2004. http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2004/pr0417.htm

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10. Human Rights

An international forum "Preventing Genocide, Threats and Responsibilities" was held 26-28 January in Stockholm. Delegates adopted a new declaration for the prevention of genocide, including actions to prevent mass killings as seen in World War II. http://www.preventinggenocide.com/

Human Rights Watch released the "World Report 2004: Human Rights and Armed Conflict". This 25th anniversary report focuses on a single theme: " The focus this year on armed conflict was influenced by events, most obviously the war in Iraq and continuing armed conflict in Africa, particularly in the Great Lakes region and in West Africa. 2003 also saw renewed bloodshed in Russia (Chechnya) and Indonesia (Aceh), to name only two of the many conflicts that continued to destroy civilian lives and the institutions and infrastructure on which they depend: justice, education, health, water. Almost without exception, the world’s worst human rights and humanitarian crises take place in combat zones". http://hrw.org/wr2k4/

The US Department of Justice's Inspector General reports they found no incidents in which the Patriot Act was used to abuse civil rights but did identify mistreatment of Muslims and Arabs that did not involve the Act. http://www.usdoj.gov/oig/special/0401a/index.htm\

The President of Uganda has referred the situation with the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) to the International Criminal Court. http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2004/afr821.doc.htm

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11. Law and Legal Issues

Milan Babic, former Croatian Serb leader, has been convicted of persecuting non-Serbs by the international tribunal in The Hague, as part of a plea agreement. Sentencing will be in April.

Jaber al-Baneh is being interrogated in Yemen for alleged links to al Qaeda. He has been charged with material support for al Qaeda and there is a $5 million reward for his capture.

Nezr Hindawi, jailed for 45 years for putting a bomb in his girlfriend's luggage before she was due to board an El Al flight in 1986, intended to blow up the airliner. The British High Court ruled that Home Secretary Blunkett's refusal to allow an independent Parole Board review of his scheduled release date violated the unlawful discrimination rules of Article 14 of the European Convention of Human Rights.

Humanitarian Law Projects, et al. vs. John Ashcroft, et al. led the federal judge to strike one portion of the USA Patriot Act related to material support, finding the rule so broad it infringed on first amendment rights of free speech. The plaintiffs had sought to provide support to Turkish Kurds and Sri Lankan Tamils. http://www.cacd.uscourts.gov/CACD/RecentPubOp.nsf/bb61c530eab0911c882567cf005ac6f9/f1c236ddb7a4c06d88256e2800653611?OpenDocument

Born Samnang has admitted being the gunman who murdered Cambodian union leader Chea Vichea last month. Sok Sam Owun, also charged, has denied involvement.

Sarjiyo (Sawad) has been sentenced to life in prison in Indonesia for helping to make the bombs used in the Bali attacks of 2002.

Masami Tsuchiya has been sentenced to death in Japanese court in connection with his role as the chemist who developed the sarin nerve gas used in the 1995 Tokyo subway attack. He is the 11th member of Aum Shrinrikyo to be sentenced to death.

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12. Transportation

US intelligence warnings have led to the cancellation of more British Airways, Air France, and Continental Airlines flights to the US.

The International Maritime Bureau has published the Annual Piracy Report 2003. They find an increase in frequency and violence of attacks, including 445 incidents reported and 21 deaths, while 71 crew and passengers are missing. Indonesian waters had 121 attacks, Bangladesh had the second most with 58, then Nigeria with 39. A worrying new trend was an end to merchant hijackings replaced by "military-style operations by militant groups seeking to hold crew members for ransom to raise funds for their cause and attacks against soft targets such as tugs and barges". There were also increased numbers of coordinated attacks. http://www.iccwbo.org/ccs/news_archives/2004/piracy_report_order_2003.asp

The US Federal Bureau of Investigation, Coast Guard and Customs representatives testified to the Senate Judiciary Committee Subcommittee on Terrorism, Technology and Homeland Security on their seaport security efforts. http://judiciary.senate.gov/hearing.cfm?id=1016

The US General Accounting Office reports on "International Trade: US Customs and Border Protection Faces Challenges in Addressing Illegal Textile Transshipment". They recommend improved information, cooperation with foreign governments, better cargo monitoring, and strengthened bond enforcement.
http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-04-345

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13. Weapons of Mass Destruction

Concern over the international nuclear black market is increasing with revelations of eminent Pakistani scientists selling nuclear knowledge for profit. (See South Asia, above.)

Nigeria has admitted to having talks with North Korea to acquire a ballistic missile capability. Although they have not reached a decision to proceed, they may in the future.

US Departments of Homeland Security and Health and Human Services have launched a new Bio-Surveillance Program to address bio-terrorism and disease surveillance requirements. http://www.dhs.gov/dhspublic/display?content=3093

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14. Recently Published

Aon "2004 Political and Economic Risk Map" http://link.aon.com/uspoliticalrisk

Victor Cha and David Kang "Nuclear North Korea: A Debate on Engagement Strategies" Columbia University Press

Bruce Cumings, "North Korea: Another Country" The New Press

Global Market Briefings (Kogan Page):
Cyprus: http://www.kogan-page.co.uk/asp/bookdetails.asp?key=4066&field=new
Croatia: http://www.kogan-page.co.uk/asp/bookdetails.asp?key=302&field=new
Libya: http://www.kogan-page.co.uk/asp/bookdetails.asp?key=3614&field=new
Slovakia: http://www.kogan-page.co.uk/asp/bookdetails.asp?key=4067&field=new

Russ Rogers et al "Security Assessment: Case Studies for Implementing the NSA IAM" Syngress, http://www.oreilly.com/catalog/1932266968/

Stephen Schlesinger "Act of Creation, The Founding of the United Nations: A Story of super Powers, Secret Agents, Wartime Allies and Enemies and Their Quest for a Peaceful World" Westview Press

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FEATURE ARTICLE: From Dossiers to Deconstruction

On September 24, 2002, the British government published a dossier of intelligence material demonstrating the threat from weapons of mass destruction presented by Iraq. It claimed:

"As a result of the intelligence we judge that Iraq has:
* continued to produce chemical and biological agents;
* military plans for the use of chemical and biological weapons, including against its own Shia population. Some of these weapons are deployable within 45 minutes of an order to use them;
* command and control arrangements in place to use chemical and biological weapons. Authority ultimately resides with Saddam Hussein. (There is intelligence that he may have delegated this authority to his son Qusai);
* developed mobile laboratories for military use, corroborating earlier reports about the mobile production of biological warfare agents;
* pursued illegal programmes to procure controlled materials of potential use in the production of chemical and biological weapons programmes;
* tried covertly to acquire technology and materials which could be used in the production of nuclear weapons;
* sought significant quantities of uranium from Africa, despite having no active civil nuclear power programme that could require it;
* recalled specialists to work on its nuclear programme;
* illegally retained up to 20 al-Hussein missiles, with a range of 650km, capable of carrying chemical or biological warheads;
* started deploying its al-Samoud liquid propellant missile, and has used the absence of weapons inspectors to work on extending its range to at least 200km, which is beyond the limit of 150km imposed by the United Nations;
* started producing the solid-propellant Ababil-100, and is making efforts to extend its range to at least 200km, which is beyond the limit of 150km imposed by the United Nations;
* constructed a new engine test stand for the development of missiles capable of reaching the UK Sovereign Base Areas in Cyprus and NATO members (Greece and Turkey), as well as all Iraq's Gulf neighbours and Israel;
* pursued illegal programmes to procure materials for use in its illegal development of long range missiles;
* learnt lessons from previous UN weapons inspections and has already begun to conceal sensitive equipment and documentation in advance of the return of inspectors."

Other dossiers followed. On December 2, the British government published a dossier documenting the human rights abuses in Iraq. December 7 Iraq presented their own dossier: 12,000 pages of disclosures as demanded by UN resolution 1441. On February 5, 2003, US Secretary of State Colin Powell presented a multimedia dossier to the UN Security Council and the world, that included satellite photos, tapes of intercepted conversations, and newly declassified intelligence files to make an even stronger case against Iraq, including claims of links with al Qaeda.

With the exception of the human rights dossier, whose claims had been well documented for decades by organizations like Amnesty International, all of the claims in these dossiers have been disproved or called into question.

The questioning began almost immediately, with experts debating the use of single or unnamed sources, their reliability and interpretation. By the spring the debate had taken on a distinctly political flavor.

On May 29 a live broadcast on BBC radio included allegations by reporter Andrew Gilligan that a senior intelligence official had expressed concern over some of the content of the dossier, including the claim that chemical and biological weapons could be deployed within 45 minutes. Gilligan said that the government had "sexed up" the dossier, including the personal involvement of communications chief Alastair Campbell. The government denied that it had falsified intelligence or gone to war based on falsehoods.

In the course of this defense, the identity of the senior intelligence source was revealed to be David Kelly. Following this revelation in July, there was an inquiry by the Intelligence and Security Committee. After testifying before the committed, Dr Kelly went missing and was later found dead, a suicide.

The public inquiry into Dr Kelly's death, the Hutton Inquiry, opened on August 1. Its conclusions were published this week.

The inquiry focused on three areas: preparation of the dossier, the meeting between Dr Kelly and Andrew Gilligan, and how the BBC handled issues arising from Gilligan's broadcast. Lord Hutton found that the allegation that the government had deliberately exaggerated intelligence was unfounded because the intelligence groups believed it, that the meeting between Gilligan and Kelly was unauthorized and that the government had acted appropriately in naming Kelly. He also found that the BBC had acted inappropriately in not investigating further the serious allegations, that its editorial system was "defective" and that subsequent investigations were inadequate. In short, the Prime Minister Blair and his government were exonerated of culpability while the BBC was heavily criticized. Andrew Gilligan, the Chairman and Director General of the BBC all resigned.

While the Hutton report was being revealed, strange events were unfolding on the other side of the Atlantic, where senior US weapons inspector David Kay was testifying before the Senate Armed Services Committee.

Dr. Kay testified that "we were all wrong and that is most disturbing". He said that he no longer believes that Saddam Hussein had stockpiles of chemical or biological weapons and had no nuclear capabilities. In the face of "misguided assessments" he called for an independent inquiry into intelligence failures over Iraq. The House and Senate intelligence committees have been investigating similar issues over the last few months and have found too much reliance on technology and circumstantial, outdated information, with too little human intelligence. Next, national security advisor Condoleezza Rice acknowledged there were flaws in prewar intelligence about Iraq. And by the end of the week even President Bush conceded there may be a problem, saying "I, too, want to know the facts. I want to be able to compare what the Iraqi Survey Group has found with what we thought prior to going into Iraq".

With this sudden shift from the US, there is more pressure on the British government. Surveys show that a majority of Britons believe the Hutton report was a whitewash and that most still trust the BBC more than the government. The press has also rounded on the report, pointing to accuracy of the substance of Gilligan's report and the gathering evidence of serious intelligence problems. The Mirror's headline was in two parts: "UNFOUNDED... the charge they 'sexed up ' dossier. UNFOUND... the WMD they took us to war over".

But Lord Hutton did not review these questions. He said:
"There has been a great deal of controversy and debate whether the intelligence in relation to weapons of mass destruction set out in the dossier published by the Government on 24 September 2002 was of sufficient strength and reliability to justify the Government in deciding that Iraq under Saddam Hussein posed such a threat to the safety and interests of the United Kingdom that military action should be taken against that country. This controversy and debate has continued because of the failure, up to the time of writing this report, to find weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. I gave careful consideration to the view expressed by a number of public figures and commentators that my terms of reference required or, at least, entitled me to consider this issue. However I concluded that a question of such wide import, which would involve the consideration of a wide range of evidence, in not one which falls within my terms of reference."

Calls for independent inquiries into intelligence failings are growing stronger both in the UK and the US. A review of the intelligence regarding nuclear threats in Libya, Iran and North Korea is also warranted. Without doubt, the CIA, MI6, and other agencies will be held to account and the future of intelligence and policies of preemptive war will be debated once again, this time with the benefit of hindsight and experience.

Further Reading: