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CONTENTS:

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK:

1. World
2. Africa
3. Americas
4. Asia Pacific
5. Europe
6. Middle East
7. South Asia
8. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare
9. Finance
10 Human Rights
11. Law and Legal Issues
12. Transportation
13. Weapons of Mass Destruction
14. Recently Published

FEATURE ARTICLE:
ID Theft Trends

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK

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1. World

The World Food Program has run out of supplies for the 6.5 million North Koreans dependent on its aid.

Avian influenza continues to sweep across Asia and has been detected in large Chinese cities. 80 million chickens have been culled but the epidemic is not under control. There have been more than two dozen human cases, with a very high fatality rate.

For excellent reporting on rapid climate change and security risks, including a Pentagon worst-case analysis, see the Newsnight program of February 13 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/newsnight/3487141.stm

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2. Africa

Algerian Islamic rebels shot dead seven police. Presidential elections are scheduled for April. The Berbers plan to boycott the elections.

In Ethiopia, the tension in Gambella region that led to the deaths of nearly 200 at the end of last month appears to be spreading and risks turning into outright rebellion. Gambella is near the border with Sudan and holds many Sudanese refugees.

Fighting in Kenya between Pokot and Turkana tribes killed 13, including three children.

In Ivory Coast, rebel warlord Adama Coulibaly was shot dead by unknown assailants, possibly one of his bodyguards.

Repair of Liberia's environment will be crucial to its future according to an assessment by the Post-Conflict Assessment Unit of the UN Environment Program. Liberia is rich in natural resources, whose illegal exploitation largely funded the 15-year war. Illegal logging has continued, most recently supporting the rebel Movement for Democracy in Liberia (MODEL).

Sudan's government has agreed to open humanitarian access in the Darfur region where rebel activity has led to 800,000 refugees and many deaths. Rebels in the area have been on the offensive and are preventing government troops from entering the region. http://www.unep.org

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3. Americas

Brazil, Colombia and Peru have agreed to share information and coordinate military operations in the cross-border fight against arms and drug smuggling.

Haiti is facing an imminent humanitarian crisis as violence that has killed 50 people in the last week spreads further across the country. Without effective security forces, the country is effectively under militia rule.

US Defense Secretary Rumsfeld has said that the detainees held indefinitely in Guantanamo Bay will have their cases reviewed once a year. For the first time, Spanish detainee Abderrahman Ahmad, seized in Afghanistan more than two years ago, has been transferred to Spain where he will be charged for having links to a Spanish al Qaeda cell.

The National Security Archive has updated their collection on Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction, including recent testimony and public statements, including the forged Niger document. http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB80/press.htm

Venezuelan President Chavez accused his opponents of fraud over the pro-referendum signatures they gathered. He will appeal to the Supreme Court if the referendum is approved. Violent confrontations between opponents and supporters continue.

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4. Asia Pacific

China has continued to attack Taiwan's planned referendum, but says it will not interfere with the presidential election that is taking place the same day. The controversy over Taiwan has slowed down discussions with Hong Kong about constitutional reforms.

In the Indonesian province of Aceh where a continuing military campaign against the separatist Free Aceh Movement (GAM) has gone on for more than nine months, the military has appealed to the public for help in capturing rebel leaders.

Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan agreed to take measures to prevent the Chardara reservoir from flooding. Waters have been rising for months and threaten to break the banks. It is at the center of regional disputes over water management.

The Philippines government and communists of the New People's Army (NPA) have resumed peace talks.

In southern Thailand Muslim elders have said that following a raid on an Islamic school they will no longer cooperate with the government security drive.

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5. Europe

Cypriot Greek and Turkish leaders have authorized the UN to finalize a referendum on reuniting the country by May, when a united Cyprus could join the EU.

Georgia and Russia have agreed to resume talks over the breakaway region Abkhazia.

Rolf Pohle, former member of the German Red Army Faction (a splinter group from the Baader-Meinhof gang) has died in Greece.

Russian presidential candidate Ivan Rybkin was missing for five days. On his return, he said he had left of his own accord but now claims he was kidnapped, drugged and videotaped without his consent. Although not a serious contender for the presidency, the charges have been given credence, pointing to continued concerns over the path of democracy in the former Soviet Union.

Similar concerns were raised by accusations that Russian special forces were responsible for the assassination of former Chechen president Zelimkhan Yanderbieyev. Yanderbieyev and two of his bodyguards were killed by a car bomb explosion in Qatar. His son was seriously injured. Yanderbieyev was on an EU terrorist list and has been accused of supporting rebel attacks.

Following the deaths of 19 illegal migrant workers trapped by the ocean as they collected shellfish, seven people are being held by British police and the British parliament has called for an investigation and tougher penalties for the gang leaders who exploit them.

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6. Middle East

Israeli Defense Forces raided Gaza City killing 15 Palestinians, including civilians, a police officer, and seven militants, in two gun battles and injuring 50. Hamas promised revenge attacks.

Last week marked the 25th anniversary of the revolution in Iran in which Ayatollah Khomeini deposed the Shah. Elections are scheduled for February 20 but with a third of the original candidates banned from running, a very low turnout is expected, and the surrounding political crisis deepens daily. Iran's Foreign Minister announced that the country is ready to sell nuclear fuel abroad. This suggests that the promised suspension of its uranium enrichment program may not have occurred. They have also admitted plans for a new centrifuge.

It was one of the bloodiest weeks yet in Iraq. Two consecutive suicide bombings killed more than a hundred civilians in less than 24 hours. Al Qaeda was blamed for the attacks. Foreign gunmen are also suspected in Saturday's rampage in which gunmen attacked a security compound. About 50 men raided the compound, shooting police, leaving 25 dead, and freeing some prisoners. UN representatives have been evaluating the feasibility of elections. Although their report will not be ready for another week or so, indications are that elections cannot be conducted prior to the US plan for handing over power to Iraqis by June 30. The status of financial reconstruction in Iraq is described by the US Treasury http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/js1165.htm

In Lebanon Mohammed Shreidi, the last surviving son of Asbat al-Ansar founder Hisham Shreidi, was shot dead in an apparent turf war in the Ein el-Hilweh refugee camp.

Saudi Arabia is constructing a security fence along the border with Yemen.

In the West Bank, Israeli troops shot dead a Palestinian farmer as he traveled to the fields.

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7. South Asia

Afghanistan had another week of sporadic violence, including a suicide attack, landmine explosion and the shooting by suspected Taliban or al Qaeda assailants of four Afghan land-mine-removal workers. Fighting between rival warlords competing over the drug business killed seven.

India is investigating reports that civilians were used as human shields as troops conducted an operating against militants in Indian-administered Kashmir. Five civilians were killed and four militants.

In Nepal, Maoist leader Krishna Bahadur Mahara said that the rebels would accept no less than a democratic, multi-party republic and that they would continue their fight against the monarch's control of the military and the government. Meanwhile, the rebels are alleged to have captured about 700 people and a general strike again shut down Kathmandu.

Pakistan's investigation into Abdul Qadeer Khan's sale of nuclear secrets continues. His pardon is said to be conditional on continued cooperation.

Sri Lankan President Kumaratunga dismissed 39 junior ministers ahead of April elections. Prime Minister Wickramasinghe says this and other actions were hindering the peace process. Kumaratunga believes the ceasefire with the Tamil Tigers is unreasonably generous and threatens national security.

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8. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare

Microsoft interrupted the scheduled monthly updates to issue a fix for a critical security flaw related to the use of Abstract Syntax Notation One that governs machine communications. The flaw opens the possibility of severe, insidious attacks, but no exploits have yet been identified. In addition to this severe vulnerability, fixes for two other flaws were released. The release of portions of Microsoft source code on the internet constitutes another blow to Microsoft's reputation and could presage additional security risks.

The mydoom worm is being used as a back door through which to launch new attacks, including variants of mydoom and a Nachi variant that attempts to clean up mydoom infections.

The US National Institute of Standards and Technology released "Standards for Security Categorization of Federal Information and Information Systems". These standards " provide a common framework and method for expressing security... [and] promote the effective management and oversight of information security programs, including the coordination of information security efforts throughout the civilian, national security, emergency preparedness, homeland security, and law communities". http://csrc.nist.gov/
http://csrc.nist.gov/publications/fips/fips199/FIPS-PUB-199-final.pdf

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9. Finance

The U.S. Treasury?s Office of Foreign Assets Control has identified ten entities it believes are owned or controlled by the Government of Cuba or Cuban nationals and that are therefore subject to US sanctions. . These ten include six Cimex Companies and four Cubanacan Companies. Details at http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/js1161.htm

As part of "Operation Balkan Vice III" Treasury also designated 13 individuals as obstructing or posing a risk of obstruction to the Dayton peace accords in Bosnia. They are: Dragan Basevic, Beljko Borovcanin, Samojko, Djorda, Ljuban Ecim, Avdyl Jakupi, Radomir Kojic, Tomislav Kovac, Predrag Kujundzic, Milovan Marijanovic, Ivan Sarac, Mirko Saravic, Xhezair Shaqiri, and Menduh Thaci. http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/js1162.htm
http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/js1170.htm

French prosecutors are investigating alleged multi-million dollar transfers from Switzerland to bank accounts of Suha Arafat, wife of the Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat.

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10. Human Rights

The Global IDP Project's new global overview finds " With nearly 25 million people uprooted within their own country by conflicts and human rights violations, internal displacement is one of the great human tragedies of our time. Yet the global crisis of internal displacement, which affects 52 countries across all continents, has unfolded largely unnoticed by the general public. International public attention continues to focus on refugees, i.e. people who crossed international borders after fleeing their homes. In comparison, internally displaced people (IDPs) have received much less attention, although their number is nearly twice as high, and their plight is often even worse than that of refugees. http://www.idpproject.org/global_overview.htm

"Explaining Death Row's Population and Racial Composition" by John Blume et al in the premier issue of Journal of Empirical Legal Studies looks at " Twenty-three years of murder and death sentence data show how murder demographics help explain death row populations. Nevada and Oklahoma are the most death-prone states; Texas's death sentence rate is below the national mean. Accounting for the race of murderers establishes that black representation on death row is lower than black representation in the population of murder offenders. This disproportion results from reluctance to seek or impose death in black defendant-black victim cases, which more than offsets eagerness to seek and impose death in black defendant-white victim cases. Death sentence rates in black defendant-white victim cases far exceed those in either black defendant-black victim cases or white defendant-white victim cases. The disproportion survives because there are many more black defendant-black victim murders, which are underrepresented on death row, than there are black defendant-white victim murders, which are overrepresented on death row." (Abstract) http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/abstract.asp?ref=1740-1453&vid=1&iid=1&aid=6&s=&site=1

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11. Law and Legal Issues

Zia Ahmad and Abdul Nabai, alleged Taliban members, have been sentenced to death by a court in Afghanistan for killing UN aid worker Bettina Goislard last November.

Ruan Anderson, a member of the US National Guard, has been arrested on charges of aiding the enemy in connection with an alleged attempt to sell information about military weapons to al Qaeda.

Ahmed Bilal was sentenced to ten years in prison for being part of a terrorist cell in the US state of Oregon that attempted to enter Afghanistan to fight for the Taliban. His brother Muhammad was sentenced to eight years and Maher "Mike" Hawash to seven.

The trial of Naeem Deeb Abu Fool, Basheer Abu Laban, Mohammed Dosouki Asaliyye and Ahmed Abdel Fattah Safi in connection with the bombing of a US diplomatic convoy last October has been moved from military to open civilian court.

Abdul Goni has been sentenced to life in prison in Indonesia for helping plan the 2002 Bali bombings.

Jose Padilla, detained in the US as an "enemy combatant" connected with an alleged dirty bomb plot, has been allowed to consult an attorney.

The Saville inquiry into the events of Bloody Sunday 1972 in which British troops shot dead 13 unarmed Catholics during a civil rights march, has completed testimony hearings and will now turn to the task of reviewing the evidence and preparing a final report, expected in a year or so.

James Ujaama was sentenced to two years prison by a Seattle, US court for helping the Taliban.

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12. Transportation

British Airways flight 223 to Washington DC was cancelled -- it has been cancelled or delayed several times -- and a flight to Saudi Arabia was also cancelled.

The Computer-Assisted Passenger Prescreening System )CAPPS II) has been significantly delayed, in part due to delays in getting passenger data from airlines to test, because of privacy concerns. Of eight key issues, only the oversight board has been fully addressed. Accuracy of data, stress testing, abuse prevention, unauthorized access prevention, policies for operation and use, privacy concerns and the redress process have not been addressed. In addition, there are challenges of international cooperation and addressing identity theft. See the General Accounting Office report at
http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-04-385

Passenger and baggage screening was the subject of another GAO report that found problems with staffing, performance, screening equipment and technologies, and other challenges. http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-04-440T

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13. Weapons of Mass Destruction

As more details emerge of the "nuclear supermarket" described last week, US President Bush proposed stronger international proliferation including tougher inspections, export bans, funding weapons elimination programs, enhancing detection and response capabilities, and expanding law enforcement. See the Fact Sheet at http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2004/20040211-5.html He has not suggested scaling back the US nuclear program or stopping funding of tactical battlefield nuclear weapons.

In "Export Controls: Post-Shipment Verification Provides Limited Assurance That Dual-Use Items Are Being Properly Used" the US General Accounting Office (GAO) found that 28 percent of the 26,340 export licenses for dual use items were to countries of concern. Post-shipment verification (PSV) was checked on only about six percent of the approved licenses. Other weaknesses include issues with compliance, access to facilities, and lack of enforcement. http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-04-357

Another GAO report reviewed the status of " HHS Bioterrorism Preparedness Programs: States Reported Progress but Fell Short of Program Goals for 2002". They identify three main contributing factors: "(1) redirection of resources to the National Smallpox Vaccination Program, (2) difficulties in increasing personnel as a result of state and local budget deficits, and (3) delays caused by state and local management practices, such as contracting and hiring procedures." http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-04-360R And Preparedness was addressed in "Response Capability Improving, but Much Remains to Be Accomplished" http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-04-458T

The National Research Council recommends improving quality control and statistical analysis in bullet lead comparisons.
http://www4.nationalacademies.org/news.nsf/isbn/0309090792?OpenDocument

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14. Recently Published

Philip Jones Griffiths, "Agent Orange: Collateral Damage in Vietnam" Trolley

Alan Huffman, "Mississippi in Africa: The Saga of the Slaves of Prospect Hill Plantation and Their Legacy in Liberia Today" Gotham

David Satter, "Darkness at Dawn: The Rise of the Russian Criminal State" Yale University Press

Bruce Schneier, "Beyond Fear: Thinking Sensibly about Security in an Uncertain World" Copernicus

William Shawcross, "Allies: The US, Britain, Europe and the War in Iraq" Public Affairs/Atlantic Books

George Soros, "The Bubble of American Supremacy: Correcting the Misuse of American Power" Public Affairs, Weidenfeld and Nicolson

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FEATURE ARTICLE: ID Theft Trends

At a time when validating identity is more important than ever, the rising tsunami of identity theft threatens to make all such measures invalid. The inability to validate identity has led to flight cancellations, security alerts, withdrawal of services, and many other consequences of varying degrees, both local and global in nature.

For the fourth consecutive year, the US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has listed identity theft as the leading consumer complaint, with 214,905 cases, 42 percent of the total. This compares to 161,836 in 2002 and 86,212 in 2001. The highest per capita rates of ID theft reported were Phoenix/Mesa, Arizona; Los Angeles/Long Beach, California; and Riverside/San Bernardino, California.

ID theft complaints most commonly came from credit card fraud, constituting a third of complaints. After this came phone or utility fraud (21 percent); bank fraud (17 percent); employment-related fraud 11 percent); government document or benefit fraud (8 percent); and loan fraud (6 percent). Other categories comprised two percent or less including illegal/criminal; medical; internet/e-mail; apartment/house rented; bankruptcy; insurance; property rental; child support; securities/other investments; and magazines.

The types of fraud committed using stolen identity have changed over time. The level of credit card fraud (against individuals) has fallen while bank, employment, benefits and other types of fraud that target organizations have increased.

Identity thieves have become more sophisticated and begun using new techniques, like phishing, to gather high volumes of personal data from corporations. Indeed, the FBI, FDIC and other organizations have been used in phishing scams.

The Identity Theft Resource Center's study "Identity Theft: The Aftermath" finds it is increasingly difficult to recover from incidents of identity theft. They say, "the business community loses between $40,000 - $92,000 per name in fraudulent charges, based on reported fraud losses seen by surveyed victims".

As a result of the increasing threat and its attendant losses, new regulations about protection of personal data have begun to emerge in some jurisdictions.

Addressing increased risks from data collected by businesses, the FTC has issued guidelines of what steps a business should take if personal information has been compromised. Their recommendations begin with evaluating the impact. If the compromise could harm a person of business, notify law enforcement immediately. If it has an impact on other businesses, such as your financial institutions or suppliers, notify them and get additional assistance from credit bureaus if names and social security numbers were compromised. Finally, early notification to individuals helps to mitigate possible damage. To do this, FTC recommends consulting with law enforcement to plan when and how to notify individuals. FTC provides guidelines for what to include and provides a model letter.

Industry has also begun to take action, particularly among financial services organizations. Citibank launched a high profile campaign to educate consumers about identity theft. The Financial Services Roundtable and BITS announced a new non-profit consortium, the Identity Theft Assistance Corporation, to provide a free service to victims of identity theft, to help protect customers and assist them in recovering if they are victims.

Other activities to combat identity theft focus on government sectors. Both the Center for Democracy and Technology (CDT) and the General Accounting Office (GAO) focused on drivers' licenses. CDT "found two dozen casein 15 states where bribery or lax security at state DMV offices had resulted in fraudulent issuance of driver's licenses" and "warned that adding more biometric information to driver's licenses will not make them reliable as a de facto national ID card".

The GAO examined states? use of Social Security Administration (SSA)?s verification service, factors that may affect the usefulness of the service, and other tools states use or need to verify identity. They found:
"...that 25 states have used either one or both of the methods SSA offers for requesting SSN verification. Over the last several years, states used the batch and on-line method to submit over 84 million and 13 million requests, respectively. Although on-line use has been increasing, usage varied significantly among states, with 5 out of 18 states submitting over 70 percent of all requests. States decide to use SSA?s service based on various factors, such as costs and state priorities.

"Weaknesses in SSA?s design and management of its SSN verification service have contributed to capacity and performance problems and limited its usefulness. While SSA recently increased systems capacity and reduced outages, problems remain. For example:
* The level of service cannot be assessed because SSA has not established key performance measures.
* States are concerned that the high verification failure rate adds to their workloads. Several states noted that some of the failures could be prevented if SSA disclosed more information to states.
* States using the batch method are vulnerable to licensing individuals using SSNs of deceased persons because SSA does not match requests against its death files. In fact, GAO obtained licenses using fraudulent documents and deceased persons? SSNs in 2 states.

"Driver licensing agencies rely primarily on visual inspection of documents such as birth certificates, driver licenses, and U.S. immigration documents to verify applicants? identity. While states may use safeguards beyond visual inspection to verify documents, they lack the ability to systematically exchange identity information on all drivers with other states. Without a means to readily share all driver records, states face a greater risk for identity theft and fraud in the driver licensing process. A recent Department of Transportation report to Congress identified options that would provide states a system for exchanging records on all drivers and could help mitigate identity fraud."

This last report indicates the most significant problem in combating the growing identity theft threat. Sources to validate identity are notoriously inaccurate and difficult to use. Once false information has been used to secure official identification documents, the criminal can proceed to use it in a variety of ways, of which criminal gain is one of the least worrying. The cost of purchasing a false identity is low, even pennies per name, and false documentation is widely available. Without better techniques to validate and secure information, the risk of false identities used to support access for terrorists and other serious criminals will continue to increase.

Further Reading:

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