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AUTHOR:
TerrorismCentral Editorial Staff

TITLE:
TerrorismCentral Newsletter - June 6, 2004

SOURCE:
TerrorismCentral, June 6, 2004

TEXT:

This was a week for reflection, as we look back on such diverse events as the 60th anniversary of the D-Day landings in Normandy in World War II, the 20th anniversary of the storming of Amritsar's Golden Temple, and the 15th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacres in China. With so many conflicts burning across the globe today, there is much to learn from our history, including the notion that we should not forget the lessons of the past. But with the eyes of the world turned elsewhere, the conflict in Afghanistan is devolving into another forgotten war. That is the topic of this week's Feature Article. In addition, News Highlights provide updates of international events from the past week.


CONTENTS:

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK:

1. World
2. Africa
3. Americas
4. Asia Pacific
5. Europe
6. Middle East
7. South Asia
8. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare
9. Finance
10 Human Rights
11. Law and Legal Issues
12. Transportation
13. Weapons of Mass Destruction
14. Recently Published

FEATURE ARTICLE:
Afghanistan: The Forgotten War

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK


1. World

Heads of state and thousands of veterans have gathered in France to commemorate D-Day, the invasion of Europe that began the defeat of occupying Nazi forces in World War II. This year has taken on particular significance with large numbers of veterans returning, the presence for the first time of the German President, and the controversial war in Iraq. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/world/2004/d-day/default.stm

The UN High Commissioner for Refugees reports a "spectacular decline" in the number of Afghans, Iraqis and Russians (nearly all Chechens) seeking asylum, continuing the downward trend in people seeking refuge in developed countries over the last few years. http://www.unhcr.ch

The level of worldwide migration, however, is expected to rapidly increase. The new International Labor Organization's Migration Survey 2003 reports that if people seeking work abroad were collected together they would make up the world's most populous country. http://www.ilo.org/public/english/bureau/inf/pr/2004/25.htm


2. Africa

Algerian rebel forces, probably linked to al Qaeda, ambushed a military convoy, killing ten soldiers and wounding 16.

In Democratic Republic of Congo dissident army troops took control of the eastern city of Bukavu. Following negotiations, the UN Mission has taken control of security and rebel troops have begun to withdraw, but the incident illustrates again the shaky grounds on which the peace process rests. Looting has continued in the area, where renegade fighters remain, interfering with food distribution even while the needs of those who fled the fighting increases. The incident and reaction to it sparked protests, rioting and vandalism across the country.

Eritrean opposition party, the Eritrean National Democratic Front, took responsibility for the May 27 bombing in Barentu that killed five and wounded 88, and that the attack was not carried out by either Ethiopia or Sudan.

Liberia has made progress in establishing policing services but security is likely to be threatened during the disarmament, demobilization and reintegration program for ex-soldiers and the limited capacity to deliver government services, as detailed in the latest UN report. http://www.un.org/Docs/journal/asp/ws.asp?m=S/2004/430 also http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2004/sc8110.doc.htm

Libya has resumed oil shipments to the US.

Malawi opposition presidential candidate Gwanda Chakuamba announced he will join the ruling United Democratic Front and drop his challenge against the presidential poll.

Morocco has been designated a major non-NATO US ally by President Bush.

Nigeria's oil-rich Delta region is under tight security although warring Itsekiri and Ijaw tribes agreed to end seven years of fighting. President Obasanjo has been given sweeping security powers in Plateau State where he imposed a state of emergency after a surge in ethnic and religious violence in May. Nigerian police in Kano banned a Muslim procession after Christian leaders expressed fears amid high religious tensions remaining after hundreds of Muslims were killed in May.

Fighting in Mogadishu, Somalia last weekend left some 60 dead and dozens more injured as rival clan factions battled over ports and an airstrip. A ceasefire ended that, but more fighting took place in the south near the Kenyan border, where rival ethnic groups clashed over control of the border town Bula Hawo. Nearly 60 were killed, dozens wounded, and some 2,500 families displaced, but the fighting has ended, for the moment.

Sudan's Darfur region now faces unavoidable catastrophe in which as many as 300,000 people will starve even if emergency aid is delivered immediately. Militia attacks continue, including the kidnapping of 16 aid workers detained by the Sudan Liberation Army and later released. The Sudanese-government-backed Arab militias lead the fighting that has killed more than 10,000 people and displaced more than a million.
http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=10951&Cr=sudan&Cr1=

Ugandan rebels of the Lord's Resistance Army attacked an Internally Displaced Persons camp in the north, killing up to 35 people.


3. Americas

Argentina's fight against corruption continues with the dismissal of some 200 police officers in the Buenos Aires provincial police force while President Kirchner warns that these purges are creating enemies for his government. The Economist has published a survey of Argentina, "The Long Road Back" in the June 5 issue. http://www.economist.com/surveys

Colombian rebels of the National Liberation Army (ELN) kidnapped 17 people although President Uribe has said he is willing to restart talks if ELN agrees to a ceasefire. A former paramilitary commander, Carlos Mauricio Garcia ("Rodrigo 00") was shot in the head five times apparently at the hands of drug traffickers who objected to his opposition to the drugs trade. The fate of Self-Defense forces of Colombia (AU) paramilitary leader Carlos Castano remains unclear, with varying reports of his death or travel to Israel.

In Peru, the Red Cross has visited Abimael Guzman, founder of the Shining Path Maoist guerilla group, where he is on hunger strike with his partner Elena Iparraguirre, to demand amnesty for fellow prisoners. They report he has lost weight but is unlikely to die.

US Federal Bureau of Investigation Director Mueller proposed to Congress a plan to transform intelligence and counterterrorism capabilities by: "1. Create a new Directorate of Intelligence in the FBI with 'broad and clear authority over intelligence-related functions.' 2. Streamline budget decision-making so that intelligence resources are more easily coordinated and shared across Bureau programs and more quickly adapted to fast-moving global threats." http://www.fbi.gov/congress/congress04/mueller060304.htm
http://www.fbi.gov/intelligence/intell.htm

The US Director of the Central Intelligence Organization, George Tenant, and Deputy Director for Operations James Pavitt both resigned from the organization. Deputy Director John McLaughlin will be acting head, but concerns have been expressed at the gap in leadership at a sensitive time. The resignations come shortly before reports expected to be highly critical of the CIA are due.

The US Army has issued a "stop loss/stop movement" order to stop troops leaving the service until after they return from the Middle East.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez says he is prepared for a referendum on his term in office that will now proceed after election officials announced there were enough petition signatures to trigger the vote.


4. Asia Pacific

Australia's federal government intends to introduce stricter bail laws following what they consider excessive lenience in two cases. Jack Roche pleaded guilty to involvement in a plan to blow up Israeli targets was sentenced to nine years prison and could be released in three. In the second case, Bilal Khazal was granted bail after being accused of providing operational support likely to facilitate terrorist attacks.

In China, the 15th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square killings (in which hundreds of civilians were massacred in a military operation to crush a student-led democratic uprising) drew little attention on the mainland, although small groups held vigils and there were a number of arrests. In Hong Kong there were tens of thousands of pro-democracy demonstrators. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/3775907.stm

North and South Korea have agreed to open cross-border rail and road links.

Papua New Guinea's parliament has rejected an Australian request to grant police immunity from prosecution while they are in the country to help restore law and order.

In Thailand, a Buddhist farmer was beheaded and a shrine ransacked last weekend, with a note threatening further attacks if there were more arrests of Muslims.


5. Europe

Georgian officials briefly sent troops to the breakaway region of South Ossetia and have now traveled there to hold talks aimed at reducing tensions.

In Kosovo a 16-year--old boy was shot dead in a drive-by shooting. Two ethnic Albanians were arrested as suspects. The action is similar to an attack in march that led to a wave of violence and therefore leads to concern that this could also trigger a violent reaction.

In Russia, an explosion in the Kirov market in Samara killed ten and injured nearly 40 people. No one has accepted responsibility, but both a business dispute and a possible terrorist attack are under investigation.

Spain marked one full year in more than 30 years (excluding truces) without a killing on the part of Basque separatist group ETA. ETA says it plans major attacks but no deaths.

Turkey's State Security Court was recently abolished as part of a government reform program tied to EU integration. As a result, the trial of 69 people charged in connection with last November's bombings of two synagogues, HSBC bank and the British consulate, was stopped. It can't resume until parliament creates a new court.


6. Middle East

The International Labor Organization reports that " High unemployment continues to grip Palestinian communities in the Occupied Arab Territories, reaching an average of 35 per cent". http://www.ilo.org/public/english/bureau/inf/pr/2004/24.htm

In the Gaza Strip, a Palestinian threw a firebomb at Israeli soldiers and they shot him dead. On Wednesday Israeli troops shot dead two armed Palestinian gunmen. Israeli troops operating in Rafah destroyed a tunnel and 18 homes before withdrawing.

Iran is suspected of a more advanced nuclear program than disclosed. International Atomic Agency Inspectors are investigating.

Iraq has a new President, Ghazi Yawer, and has sworn in the new interim government. The US-appointed Iraqi Governing Council dissolved itself. Against a backdrop of bombings and other attacks across the country, the first cabinet meeting has been held and Prime Minister Iyad Allawi has written to US President Bush with plans for future security. In the holy cities of Najaf and Kufa, rebel cleric Moktada al-Sadr's fighters have begun to withdraw in an agreement brokered by Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani.

US authorities continue a number of investigations into prison abuse which is also featured in the "Report of the High Commissioner: The Present Situation of Human Rights in Iraq" from the UN. http://www.unhchr.ch/ Other investigations continue regarding intelligence before the war, including a review of Ahmad Chalabi, long-time Iraqi exile and close associate of the US Pentagon. In a BBC interview, former US weapons inspector David Kay said it was "delusional" to believe weapons of mass destruction exist in Iraq and that British and US leaders should admit this and apologize for the mistake. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/3778987.stm Meanwhile, the UN is holding a special session on Iraq to review the latest draft of a resolution on Iraq's future sovereignty and the role of multinational forces. The UN has also announced the formation of Iraq's Independent Electoral Commission. http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=10956

In Saudi Arabia, more details have emerged about the attacks in Khobar last weekend in which 22 people were killed. The most graphic account of the operation has been posted online; for details see Jason Burke's description at http://observer.guardian.co.uk/print/0,3858,49,00.html A manhunt for the escaped militants continues but two suspects have been killed.


7. South Asia

Afghan militant attacks, particularly in the south, have increased while promised funding for reconstruction has failed to materialize. For details on the situation in Afghanistan, see this week's Feature Article, below. As one example of the level of insecurity, Medecins sand Frontieres suspended all operations after Taliban-associated gunmen killed five of its staff.

In Amritsar, India, June 6 marked the 20th anniversary of the storming of the Golden Temple, the holiest shrine of the Sikh community. During the conflict more than a thousand people were killed, but it led to constitutional changes that guaranteed independence for the Sikh religion.

India and Pakistan plan peace talks in Delhi on 27-28 June.

Nepal's former prime minister Sher Bahadur Deuba whose dismissal in 2002 triggered a political crisis, has been re-appointed by King Gyanendra.

In Karachi, Pakistan, a Shia Mosque was bombed, killing 18 and injuring nearly forty. Preliminary investigations indicate it was a suicide bomb. Rioting followed the attack.


8. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare

The Korgo worm automatically infects Windows systems that have not been patched and is particularly effective at stealing passwords and credit card numbers. A new variant of Netsky, Netsky.P, piggybacks the new Harry Potter film to increase infection rates.
http://www.f-secure.com/v-descs/korgo.shtml
http://www.sophos.com/virusinfo/articles/netskyp.html

mi2g Intelligence Unit reports that "The probability of a catastrophic malware attack, defined as global damages in excess of $100bn from a chain of combined events, has risen from 1 in 40 (2.5 percent) for 2003 to about 3 in 10 (30 percent) for 2004". http://www.mi2g.com

Cybersecurity was the topic of three US General Accounting Office reports last week. Two of the reports focused on software patches. First they looked at improving patch management where they face challenges of speed, heterogeneity, mobile systems, downtime, and service allocation. They suggest steps that could be taken to help mitigate the risk of software vulnerabilities: "For example, more rigorous software engineering practices by software vendors could reduce the number of software vulnerabilities and the need for patches. In addition, the research and development of more capable technologies could help secure information systems against cyber attacks. Also, the federal government could use its substantial purchasing power to influence software vendors to deliver more secure systems". Congressional testimony on this topic was provided in a second report. The third assessed "Cybersecurity for Critical Infrastructure Protection". It described various issues and vulnerabilities and suggested the use of an overall cybersecurity framework, including business requirements, risk assessment, security policy, implementation, monitoring and management.
http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-04-706
http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-04-816T
http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-04-321


9. Finance

Saudi Arabia has taken two significant measures to combat terrorist financing. First, the Riyadh-based Al-Haramain Islamic Foundation and related organizations operating abroad will be shut down and their assets folded into the Saudi National Commission for Relief and Charity Work Abroad, gaining transparency and responsibility for distributing all private charitable donations from Saudi Arabia. Secondly, in a joint action with the US, five additional branches of Al-Haramain, located in Afghanistan, Albania, Bangladesh, Ethiopia and the Netherlands have been designated as terrorist financiers, thereby freezing their accounts and transactions. The former leader of Al Haramain, Aqeel Abdulaziz Al-Aqil, has also been designated and both governments have asked the UN to also designate these entities. http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/js1703.htm
http://www.saudiembassy.net/2004News/Press/PressDetail.asp?cIndex=214
http://www.saudiembassy.net/2004News/Statements/SpeechDetail.asp?cIndex=423
Also note "Saudi Arabia and Terrorist Financing" at https://terrorismcentral.com/Newsletters/2004/052304.html#FeatureArticle

The US Senate Banking Committee heard testimony regarding bank supervision. John Hawke, Comptroller of the Currency, acknowledged criticism that his office had failed to act quickly and decisively against the alleged money laundering activities permitted through Riggs Bank and said that a comprehensive review was under way.
http://banking.senate.gov/index.cfm?Fuseaction=Articles.Detail&Article_id=60
Press release http://www.occ.treas.gov/scripts/newsrelease.aspx?Doc=E3AUFIXG.xml
Testimony http://www.occ.treas.gov/ftp/release/2004-42b.pdf
"Equatorial Guinea, Saudi Arabia, and Riggs Bank" https://terrorismcentral.com/Newsletters/2004/051604.html#FeatureArticle

The former Prime Minister of Ukraine, Pavel Lazarenko, has been convicted in US federal court of 29 counts of money laundering, wire fraud and interstate transportation of stolen property. It is only the second time a head of state from another country has been prosecuted in the US.
http://sanfrancisco.fbi.gov/pressrel/2004/060404ukraine.htm


10. Human Rights

Sierra Leone's Special Court has begun the trial of the first three individuals to stand trial for atrocities during the 10-year civil war. They have begun not with the Revolutionary United Front rebels, but with the civilian militia Civil Defense Force, with charges against its top leaders Sam Hinga Norman, Moinina Fofana, and Alieu Kondewa. Former Liberian President Charles Taylor will also be subject to the court that rejected his appeal for immunity as a head of state.

The Ukraine was acquitted of charges that officials tortured a prisoner to death after a commission with foreign pathologists came to the country to investigate. It is the first time foreign pathologists have been brought into Ukraine. They concluded that Andrei Shelkovenko had hung himself. Ukraine's human rights record remains troubled but this episode may have set a precedent for outside investigations of future deaths in detention, to which the Ukraine is prone.

The UN committee drafting a global treaty to protect and promote human rights for the disabled may be ready for signing as early as next year. There are about 600 million people with disabilities worldwide.

World No Tobacco Day was held on May 31, with the World Health Organization warning that tobacco use kills a person every 6.5 seconds and that the heaviest burden falls on the poor. About 84 percent of smokers live in developing countries and to address this the theme this year was "Tobacco and Poverty: A vicious circle"


11. Law and Legal Issues

Abdelbaset ali Mohmed al-Megrahi has launched his appeal over the 27-year sentence he received for being convicted of the 1988 Lockerbie bombing.

Marwan Barghouti, leader of Palestinian Fatah, was sentenced in Israeli court to five consecutive life sentences and 40 additional years in prison. He was convicted of only 3 of the 37 attacks against Israelis of which he had been accused.

Daoud Ouhnane is the subject of an international arrest warrant issued by a Spanish judge in connection with the Madrid bombings of March 11. His fingerprint, found on a bag of detonators, has been erroneously identified as that of a US attorney, Brandon Mayfield, by the US Federal Bureau of Investigation, which subsequently apologized for the error.

Jose Padilla's indefinite detention by US authorities is in the Supreme Court but last week the Deputy Attorney General delivered a report summarizing their allegations against him. http://www.usdoj.gov/dag/speech/2004/dag6104.htm

Amari Saifi ("Al Para") of the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat has been taken into custody by Algerian forces after multinational operations. He is wanted in connection with numerous attacks against Algerian security forces, foreigners and others, and is believed connected with al Qaeda.

Bukhary Seyed Abu Tahir, a Sri Lankan businessman, was detained in Malaysia in connection with nuclear trafficking.

Charles Taylor, former President of Liberia, lost his appeal that as a serving head of state he was immune from prosecution for war crimes connected with his alleged role in Sierra Leone's civil war. http://www.usdoj.gov/dag/speech/2004/dag6104.htm

Eugene Terreblanche, South African right-wing leader of the Afrikaner Resistance Movement, served more than half of a 5-year sentence for the 2001 attempted murder of a black security guard and will be freed on parole June 11.


12. Transportation

The UK Parliament Transport Committee finds the British Cash Police are under-funded and unable to properly do their work on railways. http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200304/cmselect/cmtran/488/48802.htm

The US House Transportation Committee approved $3.4 billion in first responder grants for "all-hazards" preparedness to mitigate against terrorist attacks. http://www.house.gov/transportation/

The US Department of Homeland Security awarded the prime contract for the US-VISIT project to Accenture LLP. The contract has a base period of five years, with five one-year options and its value is for a minimum of $10 million and a maximum of $10 billion. http://www.dhs.gov/dhspublic/display?content=3694
Connected to this project is tracking people who overstay their authorized visits. The US General Accounting Office reviewed "A Key Component of Homeland Security and a Layered Defense", describing current weaknesses and their impact on domestic security.
http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-04-82

In another related development, a new report finds that visa delays for foreign business's travel cost corporate America more than $30 billion in the past two years. Findings included:
"* 73 percent currently experience, or have recently experienced, problems in the processing of business travel visas (including unexpected delays and arbitrary denials)
* 60 percent reported they had suffered a "material impact" from business travel visa processing delays, including lost sales, increased costs, need to relocate people or functions offshore, etc.
* 51 percent report that the visa process is worse today than it was one year ago"
They made a number of recommendations to alleviate the problem:
" *The goal for visa processing should be 48 hours with an outside limit of 30 days;
* Consular posts should provide greater transparency to U.S. companies;
* A "Gold Card" program would facilitate visa applications and avoid problems and redundancies before they occur;
* Continued integration of government databases is essential;
* Multiple-entry, longer duration visas would lessen consular workloads;
* Consular posts should allow interviews to be scheduled over the Internet;
* Congress should exercise its oversight authority to ensure improvements in consular services"
http://www.nftc.org/newsflash/newsflash.asp?Mode=View&articleid=1686&Category=All
http://www.nftc.org/default/visasurveyresults%20final.pdf


13. Weapons of Mass Destruction

The International Atomic Energy Agency described possible terrorist scenarios including theft of a weapon, gaining radioactive substances meant for medical treatment, and so on.
http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/Features/NuclearSecurity/scenarios20040601.html
New Scientist reviewed IAEA records to reveal the growing risk of a radioactive dirty bomb: http://www.newscientist.com/news/news.jsp?id=ns99995061

US Customs and Border Protection has implemented Phase III of the Bioterrorism Act that requires prior notice of all food imports. http://www.cbp.gov/xp/cgov/newsroom/press_releases/06022004_2.xml

"Nuclear Nonproliferation: DOE's Effort to Close Russia's Plutonium Production Reactors Faces Challenges, and Final Shutdown Is Uncertain" is a new US General Accounting Office report. http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-04-662 Another GAO report reviews "Further Improvements Needed in U.S. Efforts to Counter Threats from Man-Portable Air Defense Systems" http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-04-519 Meanwhile, National Nuclear Security Administrator Brooks submitted a classified report to Congress to reduce the nuclear weapons stockpile by nearly half. http://www.nnsa.doe.gov/ And the Energy Department's Inspector General reported on important weaknesses in worker safety at the Hanford nuclear reservation in Washington State. http://www.ig.doe.gov/pdf/i04rl003.pdf


14. Recently Published

Rodger W. Claire, "Raid on the Sun" Broadway Books

Frederick P. Hitz, "The Great Game: The Myth and Reality of Espionage" Alfred A Knopf

China Keitetsi, "Child Soldier" Souvenir

Matthew McAllester, "Blinded by the Sunlight: Emerging from the Prison of Saddam's Iraq" Harper Collins

Hugh Thomas "Rivers of Gold" Random House

Martin Wolf "Why Globalization Works: The Case for the Global Market Economy" Yale University Press


FEATURE ARTICLE: Afghanistan: The Forgotten War

"Afghanistan needs international support to emerge from decades of war, tackle resurgent militias sabotaging peace efforts, and hold credible elections in September." These were the words of Jean Arnault, head of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan in his most recent report to the Security Council.

On the same day, the Executive Director of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime, Antonio Maria Costa, warned that opium production in Afghanistan in 2003 increased by six percent to 3,600 tons. It generated an income of $1 billion to farmers and $1.3 billion to traffickers, comprising 52 percent of the gross domestic product, and expected to increase in further this year. He said that "If world demand persists at the level of over 4,000 tonnes of opium a year, if not in Afghanistan, somewhere, somehow, drugs will be produced. The matter is all the more serious considering that injecting heroin abuse is causing a major HIV/AIDS pandemic." And called for international support to fight this plague.

These were the same warnings heard after the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1991 that were ignored for a decade. The transformation from a failed state, treated as an irrelevant humanitarian issue, to a training center for international terrorists that threatened the world did not take place on the ground, but in the eyes of the wealthy industrialized countries waking up to what they perceived as a new threat. More than two years after the US-led coalition struck against Taliban and al Qaeda targets inside Afghanistan, the promises of rebuilding the country to prevent it falling again into anarchy have been largely ignored, with predictable results.

Today, on the ground, local militia groups, including Taliban and al Qaeda, are resurgent and security has deteriorated over the past two years. There have been numerous skirmishes between al Qaeda, Taliban, and coalition forces, particularly in border regions. Vice President Qadir was assassinated, and attempts were made to assassinate President Karzai and the Minister of Defense. There have been numerous attacks on humanitarian workers and contractors with significant casualties and deaths from snipers, grenade attacks, ambushes, and bombings. These attacks regularly force suspension of humanitarian activities including delivery of relief and de-mining. Warlords control private armies with tens of thousands of soldiers and manage their regions without cooperating with the central government. The warlords fight among themselves, control local revenues, and often control the local drugs trade. Indeed, the opium trade is the only source of possible employment for the majority of the population. It provides income to the warlords, al Qaeda and Taliban, giving them far greater resources than the central government possesses.

The situation is further confused by provision of insufficient resources for the coalition forces. Lack of personnel has led to their use of local militias to provide additional security forces. Worse yet, armed forces accompany humanitarian workers, leading to confusion of the roles and making civilians and aid workers even greater targets of attack. Furthermore, promised funding has not materialized and what has been provided came late. Conditions for reconstruction workers are poor, including staff shortages, unreliable communication and transportation equipment, limited ability to move about, and generally poor working conditions.

The Afghan government conservatively estimated reconstruction to meet the highest priorities in 2004-2008 would require $30 billion. As of last month, only $947 million of international disbursements had been provided. Contrast the $67 per capita assistance provided in Afghanistan in 2002-3 with East Timor at $256 and Bosnia at $249.

A US General Accounting Office report released last week explained these challenges and looked as post-conflict characteristics that had impeded stability elsewhere against the situation in Afghanistan. They point out that "According to the World Bank, of the 52 countries that have experienced civil conflict since 1960, 44 percent relapsed into violence within 5 years".

Afghanistan exhibits many of these warning signs:
(reformatted Figure 19 from GAO report)

"Characteristic: Lack of international legitimacy under multilateral/interim administration
In Afghanistan: Current government legitimized through Bonn Agreement and June 2002 loya jirga
Characteristic: Elite groups not aligned with the U.S.
In Afghanistan: Afghan government seeks modern, stable democratic Afghanistan
Characteristic: Inability to absorb international assistance
In Afghanistan: Legitimate government established national development framework and budget, but government lacks capacity at all levels.
Characteristic: Two or more competing parties/weak national identity
In Afghanistan: Multiple armed factions divided on ethnic and tribal lines, multiple warlords compete for control
Characteristic: Disposable resources
In Afghanistan: Produces 70 percent of the world's opium, provides drug traffickers with billions of revenue annually
Characteristic: Weak peace agreement
In Afghanistan: Not all factions (e.g. Taliban) participated in the Bonn Agreement negotiations and the Agreement did not mandate international security forces outside of Kabul
Characteristic: Lack of state capacity
In Afghanistan: Central government lacks financial and military resources and regional warlords still hold power
Characteristic: Inexperience with constitutionalism
In Afghanistan: Afghanistan's experience with constitutionalism is limited
Characteristic: Groups opposed to regime change
In Afghanistan: Taliban, regional warlords, and international terrorists challenge and seek to undermine the current Afghan government
Characteristic: Hostile neighbors
In Afghanistan: Conflicting interests exist among the border countries of Iran, former Soviet states, and Pakistan
Characteristic: Large numbers of soldiers that require disarmament and demobilization
In Afghanistan: UN plans to disarm/demobilize 100,000 soldiers, but the country may have as many as 700,000 men in arms
Characteristic: Lack of financial commitment from international donors
In Afghanistan: In fiscal years 2002-2003 donors pledged $9.7 billion in assistance, but disbursed only $947 million for reconstruction projects"

GAO recommended that the lead US agency for reconstruction, USAID, should "revise its strategy to delineate goals, resource levels, and a schedule of program evaluations". They also suggested the State Department "produce an annual consolidated budget report and semiannual reports on obligations and expenditures.

In an even more practical example, the international community promised Afghanistan funding for elections. Originally scheduled for this month, they were delayed until September. $101 was needed to fund basic items like ballot papers and voting boxes, of which only $70 million had been promised. Of this, nothing at all has been delivered.

Above and beyond this, the international community needs to step up to its promises and obligations and provide all the resources necessary to prevent Afghanistan descending into a narco-terrorist state, not just short-term measures to support the largely symbolic measure of elections in September.

Further Reading:

"Afghanistan: The Forgotten War" On Point radio broadcast
http://www.onpointradio.org/shows/2003/12/20031208_a_main.asp

"Afghanistan: The Forgotten War" Time Magazine cover story
http://www.time.com/time/covers/1101040308/

Amnesty International
http://web.amnesty.org/library/eng-afg/reports

CrisisWeb
http://www.crisisweb.org/home/index.cfm?id=1266&l=1

Husain Haqqani, "Think Again: A Forgotten War"
http://www.ceip.org/files/publications/2003-12-12-haqqani-cap.asp

Human Rights Watch
http://www.hrw.org/doc?t=asia&c=afghan
http://www.hrw.org/reports/1991/afghanistan/

Mark Kaufman "US Role Shifts as Afghanistan Founders"
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A19438-2003Apr13?language=printer

Joe Strupp "Few Newspapers Covering Afghanistan"
http://editorandpublisher.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1988236

UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan
http://www.unama-afg.org/

UN Afghanistan In Focus
http://www.un.org/apps/news/infocusRel.asp?infocusID=16&Body=Afghanistan&Body1=

US General Accounting Office
"Afghanistan Reconstruction: Deteriorating Security and Limited Resources Have Impeded Progress; Improvements in U.S. Strategy Needed"
http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-04-403.


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