AUTHOR:
TerrorismCentral Editorial Staff

TITLE:
TerrorismCentral Newsletter - June 27, 2004

SOURCE:
TerrorismCentral, June 27, 2004

TEXT:

At midnight on June 30, Iraq's Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) will cease to exist and the interim Iraqi government will take its place. "Iraq's Transition" is the subject of this week's Feature Article. News Highlights review events on the ground in Iraq, as well as the large attacks in the North Caucasus, Turkey and elsewhere around the globe. We also include information about the context and consequences of such actions, including news of the latest cyber threats, the key role of infrastructure in development, the latest air-transportation security measures in the EU, and current legal issues.

CONTENTS:

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK:

1. World
2. Africa
3. Americas
4. Asia Pacific
5. Europe
6. Middle East
7. South Asia
8. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare
9. Finance
10 Human Rights
11. Law and Legal Issues
12. Transportation
13. Weapons of Mass Destruction
14. Recently Published

FEATURE ARTICLE:
Iraq's Transition

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK

1. World

North Korea, South Korea, China, Russia, Japan and the US concluded low level talks regarding North Korea's nuclear program, making little progress but promising to try again. North and South Korea have bypassed US intransigence with bilateral moves that are reducing tension along their border. There is an emerging consensus that the nuclear threat can only be addressed if North Korea's dire economic problems are also resolved.

The Global Compact that links international business leaders with the UN to promote better corporate practices, met to discuss the challenge of "Harnessing the potential of markets and business leadership through shared values and collective action so that global markets can be made to work for all". They have completed a comprehensive consultation process regarding graft and corruption and how to address these problems through inclusive, transparent and comprehensive principles and investigated the relationship between corporations and global poverty. The World Bank has addressed similar issues inn looking at the key role of infrastructure in meeting Millennium Development Goals. Yet another report by AccountAbility and the CSRnetwork found that the 100 largest companies have a poor record on taking social and environmental impact into account, emphasizing the need for long-term accountability.
http://www.unglobalcompact.org/Portal/Default.asp
http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/NEWS/0,,contentMDK:20212113~menuPK:34464~pagePK:64003015~piPK:64003012~theSitePK:4607,00.html
http://www.csrnetwork.com/

2. Africa

The InterAcademy Council has reviewed the use of science and technology to help boost agricultural productivity, profitability and sustainability in Africa, ensuring safe and nutritious food for all Africans. Their report looks at comprehensive strategies across the continent. "Realizing the Promise and Potential of African Agriculture" is online at http://www.interacademycouncil.net/report.asp?id=6959

The International Organization for Migration (IOM) reports that South Africa is a regional center for human trafficking conducted by organized crime, businesswomen, tourists and refugees; recruiting women and children from neighboring countries, Eastern Europe and East Asia. http://www.iom.int/ and http://www.irinnews.org/report.asp?ReportID=41837

Democratic Republic of Congo President Joseph Kabila and President Paul Kagame of Rwanda have agreed to immediate steps to reduce border tensions, including a joint verification mechanism to address border activities.

Nigerian soldiers searching for weapons in Plateau State shot dead two villagers reported to have been hoarding illegal weapons. A number of other people were injured, and the area continues to operate under emergency rule imposed after Christian-Muslim violence that killed hundreds and displaced thousands.

Sudan's government and rebels of the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) are preparing their final round of peace talks. Meanwhile, the crisis in the western region of Darfur is exploding, complicated by the arrival of the rainy season. To understand the situation, read these excellent articles by Hilary Andersson and Emily Wax
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/low/programmes/from_our_own_correspondent/3840427.stm
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A8610-2004Jun26.html
The EU and US have expressed "grave concern" about the crisis. US Secretary of State Powell and UN Secretary General Annan will be visiting and apply further pressure on the government. To save lives while these slow diplomatic efforts are under way, refer to the Guardian's directory of charities that are coordinating aid to Darfur: http://www.guardian.co.uk/sudan/story/0,14658,1242074,00.html

Uganda has asked Sudan to help locate the leader of the Lord's Resistance Army, Joseph Kony, who is believed hiding across the border. Kony's personal secretary, Jackson Achama, has surrendered to Ugandan government troops and agreed to return to Uganda after he had surrendered to Sudanese government forces. He is one of 12 LRA commanders who have surrendered in the past two months.

3. Americas

Kidnappings in Argentina have risen from 46 in 2001 to 306 in 2003, more than a five-times increase that is apparently connected to other violent crimes for gain responding to the continuing economic crisis. There has been a surge in kidnapping in Mexico (from 568 in 2001 to 531 in 2003), as well, where it is connected to organized crime and last week led to the kidnap and murder of two police officers. It is reported that criminal organizations give security officers a choice of payment in "cash or lead". Hundreds of thousands of people marched in Mexico City to protest kidnappings and violent crime. Colombia remains the international leader in kidnappings, with 2,043. (Note that the numbers cited are government figures and that security companies estimate incidents as much as ten times the official estimates.)

In Colombia, a bomb outside a Bogota university killed one person and injured three.

In Guatemala, June 27 marked the 50th anniversary of the 1954 CIA-backed coup that removed Jacobo Arbenz Guzman to stop nationalization of plantations, including those owned by the United Fruit Company. In his place a brutal military dictatorship was installed, from which the former home of the ancient Mayan Empire has still not recovered. http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB4/

Haiti's peacekeeping operation has been formally assumed by the United Nations, beginning with a force of Chileans and Canadians joining the Brazilian troops and staff officers already in place. Additional troops from Argentina, Uruguay, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Peru will be deployed by the end of July, at which point the deployment will comprise 6,700 troops and 1,622 civilian police.

In the US, the White House released selected documents on the use of torture http://usinfo.state.gov/usinfo/Archive/washfile_feature2.html. For more thorough coverage, see the National Security Archive collection at http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB127/index.htm. The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has suspended use of "extraordinary interrogation techniques" pending review by the Justice Department and Bush administration officials. A group of 31 UN human rights specialists have appealed for access to detainees held in Iraq, Afghanistan and Guantanamo Bay.

The US State Department has corrected the Patterns of Global Terrorism report issued in April that left off incidents that occurred at the end of the year and contained other errors. Corrections include more than doubling the number of deaths, from 307 to 625, a dramatic increase of those injured from 1,593 to 3,646, and a total of 208 attacks, up from 198. http://www.state.gov/s/ct/rls/pgtrpt/2003/

Venezuelan military prosecutors have charged more than 60 Colombians and five members of the Venezuelan military on suspicion of conspiring to overthrow President Chavez. Colombia and Venezuela have been carrying out coordinated border operations, capturing at least 29 alleged guerillas in the first week of operations.

4. Asia Pacific

The Association of Southeast Asian Countries (ASEAN) is starting to meet regarding a regional security pact to combat terrorism, but probably not a broader military alliance or joint operations. http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/latest/story/0,4390,258613,00.html

Australia's federal government released "Protecting Australia Against Terrorism" looking at infrastructure protection and warning of the probability of attacks. http://www.pmc.gov.au/protecting_australia/index.htm

The Council of Australian Governments agreed to a National Water initiative to help save rapidly diminishing resources, setting up a national water commission and a national commodity trading market. They also discussed counter-terrorism initiatives, endorsing the National Counter-Terrorism Committee 23 recommendations on protecting critical infrastructure. http://www.coag.gov.au/meetings/250604/index.htm

In Burma's capital Rangoon three bombs exploded and four others failed to detonate. There were no injuries, but were attributed to Thailand-based rebels and terrorists that wanted to disrupt the National Convention.

The Cambodian People's Party and the royalist Funcinpec party have agreed to a power-sharing government that ends nearly a year of political stalemate.

Bushfires in Indonesia have been so large they have sent a haze across Malaysia and Singapore. At least one plantation owner has been arrested in connection with illegal burning.

5. Europe

The Organisation for Security and Cooperation (OSCE) in Europe held the Annual Security Review Conference. OSCE Chairman Solomon Passy called for a new focus on unconventional materials and the fight against global terrorism. http://www.osce.org/events/conferences/2004asrc/

Italian police have arrested 90 people, including three police, suspected of involvement in a Mafia gang in Puglia (the Gargano gang) that is accused of murders connected with trafficking and extortion.

The Dutch Senate approved a new bill on terrorist crimes that could turn collusion and recruitment into punishable offenses, attach heavier penalties to terror-related crimes.

Irish and British governments held bilateral discussions with parties from Northern Ireland regarding restoration of devolution in Northern Ireland. They plan intensive talks in September, and warn that if agreement is not reached by then the suspended Stormont assembly may have to be dissolved.

The Russian republic of Ingushetia was struck by a guerilla assault connected with Chechen separatists. At least 47 members of the interior ministry, including the acting interior minister and the deputy minister were killed, as well as a UN staff member hit by crossfire, two rebels, and many civilians. In addition to seizing the interior ministry building before burning it down, the 200 rebels attacked several border posts. By the end of the raids the death toll was at least 92, with more than 125 injured. Thousand of Russian troops are hunting the attackers, believed to be a mixture of local and Chechen fighters.

There were two bomb attacks in Turkey last week. A bomber, Semiran Polat, was killed on an Istanbul bus when the bomb she was holding accidentally detonated, killing four and injuring 15. It is believed she was transporting the bomb to a different location. In Ankara, a parcel bomb outside the Hilton hotel injured two people and. The latter attack was claimed by the Marxist-Leninist MLFP-FESK and was similar to the bomb used on the bus.

In Northern Ireland, a contentious Orange Order parade in Belfast proceeded peacefully after a compromise was agreed between the Parades Commission and the marchers that included removal of all paramilitary flags and emblems and the banning of the Ballysillan Volunteers Flute Band that had broken rules last year. Protestors blocked several roadways, but there was no violence.

6. Middle East

The latest UN Security Council briefing regarding Israel and the occupied territories included the observations that the Road Map was stalled and that a political solution is desperately needed. It also gave the latest figures in the toll of the intifada:
"...since the last monthly briefing, 39 Palestinians and two Israelis had been killed; 309 Palestinians and 32 Israelis had been wounded. That brought the total number of casualties since the start of the current crisis in September 2000 to 3,437 Palestinians and 942 Israelis killed, with 33,776 Palestinians and 6,008 Israelis wounded". http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2004/sc8131.doc.htm

A new study by the Media Group at Glasgow University, Scotland, reviewed UK television news coverage of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Perhaps their most important finding was that programs did not provide enough context and history and that many viewers were not sure who was occupying what. It also found that coverage substantially favored Israel. http://www.gla.ac.uk/departments/sociology/Israel.htm

The World Bank has released "Disengagement, the Palestinian Economy and the Settlements". The paper reports that "Since the beginning of the intifada in September 2000, the West Bank and Gaza has suffered one of the worst recessions in modern history. GDP per capita has declined by almost 40 percent, and nearly half of the Palestinian population is living in poverty. This crisis has resulted from restrictions on the movement of Palestinian people and goods, or 'closures', which the Government of Israel regards as essential to protecting its citizens form attacks by militants. Without major changes in this closure regime, however, the Palestinian economy will not revive, poverty and alienation will deepen. Of itself, Israel's Disengagement Plan of June 6 will have very little impact on the Palestinian economy, since it proposes only a limited easing of closure". The paper continues with reviews of modernizing border controls, interacting with international donors, and dealing with settlement assets. http://www.worldbank.org/we

Bahrain has arrested six suspected militants to prevent them from committing attacks because they were linked with al Qaeda, but not from any specified activities, but after a brief hearing they were released without charge.

In the Gaza Strip, an explosion in a tunnel dug near an Israeli army base has killed or injured a number of soldiers, (details are still emerging). This attack was claimed by Hamas and Al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades in retaliation for the death of seven Palestinian militants yesterday (see West Bank, below). Earlier in the week, Israeli troops shot and killed three alleged Palestinian militants in two separate incidents.

Iran detained eight UK soldiers and three patrol boats for illegally entering its territory in the Shatt Al-Arab waterway. They were freed after questioning verified they had accidentally crossed the boundary in the narrow waters, and returned to their base in Iraq.

A new collection by the National Security Archive examines "Mohammad Mosaddeq and the 1953 Coup in Iran". http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB126/index.htm

Iraq's insurgency reached a peak on June 24 when coordinated attacks in five cities killed more than a hundred people (including 3 US soldiers) and left more than 320 injured in just six hours. Tactics included ambushes, armed assaults, car bombs, and a suitcase loaded with explosives. The US reports that it killed 20 militants in an air strike against a suspected militant hideout in Falluja but that has made no dent in the militants' momentum. The US and EU have promised to support the upcoming interim government, including the UN role in rebuilding and holding elections, reducing debt, enforcing international human rights, and training security forces. Neither the EU nor NATO offered additional troops. The interim government, which takes control on June 30, is considering imposition of emergency rule. For more information about the transitional period see this week's Feature Article, below.

Reports from Saudi Arabia suggest that former Saudi policeman Saleh al-Oufi has become the new leader of al Qaeda in the kingdom, replacing Abdul Aziz al-Muqrin, who was killed last week. The Saudi royal family is offering a one-month amnesty for militants who have not been directly involved in attacks, but emphasized that no means were barred for those with blood on their hands.

The West Bank leader of al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades, Nayef Abu Sharkh and West Bank commander of Islamic Jihad, Fadi al-Buhti ("Sheik Ibrahim"); as well as a local Hamas leader and four alleged militants were killed in the third day of an Israeli raid in Nablus.

Yemen reports a raid in the north against anti-government cleric Hussein al-Houthi has killed 46 alleged militants and 12 government soldiers.

7. South Asia

Afghanistan continues to grapple with warlords, drug barons, and with Taliban and al Qaeda elements, while trying to prepare for elections in September. Attacks connected with the elections are increasing, including election workers and the death of 16 people for carrying voter registration cards. NATO plans another 1,200 troops to help provide election security, but the Afghan government has requested at least 5,000. The 6,400 strong NATO force not in Afghanistan operates only in Kabul. The lack of security in the rest of the country contributes to the booming poppy trade: Afghanistan produces 75 percent of the world opium supply. http://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/world_drug_report.html

An opposition rally in Bangladesh was attacked with a bomb directed against Awami League candidate. He escaped injury but one person was killed and 30 injured.

Indian and Pakistani officials have begun meetings focused on Kashmir to prepare for a foreign ministers summit in August. The long-running dispute over the Indus Water Basin may be close to resolution.

Andhra Pradesh state's ceasefire offer has been matched by the Maoist rebel People's War Group (PWG) who has announced a 3-month ceasefire. In Jharkhand state, PWG rebels used a landmine and gunfire to attack state police, killing at least six. In Assam state, the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) used a time bomb to destroy a passenger bus, killing six and injuring 17.

In Indian-administered Kashmir, two men kidnapped by suspected Islamic militants were found dead with their throats cut and in a raid by suspected militants killed at least ten villagers.

Nepal's Maoist rebels have freed all of the 140 cement workers previously abducted from a state-run factory. They have also murdered Ramji Thapa, a cousin of a former royalist prime minister.

In Pakistan, a number of attacks against infrastructure and government targets have been associated with anti-government feelings. In Balochistan province, local tribesmen destroyed an airport in a rocket attack against the country's biggest natural gas field and opened fire on paramilitary soldiers guarding the area; casualties are unknown. In Gwadar, a power line tower was destroyed in connection with a dispute over land allotments and construction. The Pakistan Muslim League has emphasized that not all such incidents are acts of terrorism.

Sri Lanka's Tamil Tigers have accused Sri Lankan security forces of assisting breakaway rebel commander Colonel Karuna, warning such actions could undermine the ceasefire. The Sri Lankan military initially denied the charges but later admitted that some members had help him to escape to help him conduct covert operations against the Tigers. An internal inquiry is under way.

8. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare

A critical vulnerability affecting Microsoft Internet Information Server and end-user Windows machines that visit these sites. Download.Ject (a/k/a JS.Scob.Trojan, Scob, JS.Toofeer; msits.exe is renamed on install) appends JavaScript as a document footer on the web pages served by a compromised site. When executed, the script installs variant of Berbew/Webber/Padodor Trojan. Latest reports connect the virus to phisher attacks used to collect personal information for financial gain. Patches are available to address two of the three flaws the virus uses. US-CERT "recommends that end-users disable JavaScript unless it is absolutely necessary. Users should be aware that any web site, even those that may be trusted by the user, may be affected by this activity and thus contain potentially malicious code". The Internet Storm Center adds a recommendation to "use a browser other then MSIE until the current vulnerabilities in MSIE are patched".
http://www.incidents.org/
http://www.us-cert.gov/current/current_activity.html#iis5
http://securityresponse.symantec.com/avcenter/venc/data/js.scob.trojan.html
http://www.LURHQ.com/berbew.html http://www.microsoft.com/security/incident/download_ject.mspx
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A4850-2004Jun25.html
http://news.netcraft.com/archives/2004/06/25/iis_server_malware_is_phishing_scam.html

The Anti-Phishing Working Group released its May attack report, including 1,197 unique attacks reported, with Citibank most targeted, with 370, and 95 percent of the attackers using spoofed email addresses. http://www.antiphishing.org/APWG_Phishing_Attack_Report-May2004.pdf

The July issue of Forensic Science Communications includes interesting articles on steganography and DNA testing. http://www.fbi.gov/hq/lab/fsc/current/index.htm

The US Department of Homeland Security has launched a pilot program for secure sharing of public/private critical infrastructure threat information. http://www.dhs.gov/dhspublic/interapp/press_release/press_release_0442.xml

9. Finance

Swiss investigators report the country had been used as a financial and logistical support base for the September 11 hijackers. Since September 11 Swiss authorities have frozen accounts containing around $27 million. The accounts are connected with individuals and charitable organizations connected with al Qaeda and also ties Swiss-based foreign nationals to the Riyadh bombings of May 2003.

Under a new agreement signed by diamond miners, cutters, dealers and other interested parties, diamonds that have been certified originating from a conflict-free zone will be labeled with a fifth "C". At the end of the year, carat, color, clarity and cut will be joined by conflict-free, and provide a guarantee that the stone is neither a blood diamond nor was mined by children. http://www.globalwitness.org/campaigns/diamonds/

The UN Office on Drugs and Crime has published the 2-volume 2004 edition of the World Drug Report. http://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/world_drug_report.html

The Northern Ireland Audit Office finds levels of benefit fraud and related errors costs taxpayers nearly GBP121 million. http://www.niauditoffice.gov.uk/

The US Treasury has designated Mohamed Ben Mohamed Abdelhedi, Kamel Darraji, Mohamed El Mahfoudi, Imed Ben Bechir Jammali, Habib Ben Ahmed Loubiri and Chabaane Ben Mohamed Trabelsi as alleged members of an Italian al Qaida Cell subject to international sanctions. http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/js1739.htm

10. Human Rights

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The International Day in Support of Victims of Torture was observed on June 26 with a reaffirmation of the absolute prohibition against such treatment whether during peacetime or in war. http://www.un.org/events/torture/

The International Criminal Court has opened its first investigation. They will be looking into allegations of rape, torture, forced displacement, and use of child soldiers in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

British Attorney General, Lord Goldsmith, categorically states that the US military tribunals for Guantanamo Bay prisoners are unacceptable and breech the fundamental right of a fair trial.

The US withdrew a draft Security Council resolution to extend war crimes immunity for a third year after finding that it could not garner support following recent prisoner abuse revelations.

11. Law and Legal Issues

Marzuk Abdulazim Abdurazak was arrested by Ethiopian security as he tried to enter from Djibouti with a forged passport. He is an Egyptian national suspected of operating on a terrorist mission connected with the al-Ittihad al-Islamiya organization that collaborates with al Qaeda.

Muwauin Abdel Aziz Attallah, a Palestinian Authority officer, has been arrested in Israel for helping Hamas plan and carry out the double suicide attack against Ashdod port in March.

Rusman Gunawan's trial on charges of helping fund the Marriott Hotel bombing for his brother, Hambali (a Jemaah Islamiah militant) has opened in Indonesia.

Jesus Maria Lariz Iriondo, a suspected member of Basque separatist group ETA living in Argentina, will not be extradited. An Argentine judge found that the charges, related to a 1984 attack that injured three police, were inadmissible. He also took into account claims that Spain mistreated ETA prisoners to say that in case of a future extradition there should be guarantees of prisoner wellbeing.

Vladimiro Montesinos, former Peruvian intelligence chief under Fujimori, has been acquitted of corruption and conspiracy charges. He remains in detention while awaiting trial on money laundering, drug trafficking, and dozens of other charges

Tyronne Ratnayake has been acquitted on appeal to the Sri Lanka Supreme Court, who found insufficient evidence that he was involved in the massacre of 27 Tamil child soldiers in October 2000, which led to terrible ethnic riots.

Jason Smathers, an AOL employee, has been arrested on conspiracy charges connected with the theft and sale of 90 million customer email addresses for email marketing to alleged accomplice Sean Dunaway, also charged with conspiracy. These are believed the first arrests under US federal anti-spam laws.
http://media.aoltimewarner.com/media/newmedia/cb_press_view.cfm?release_num=55254060
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A6703-2004Jun25.html

The trial of New York attorney Lynne Stewart for conspiracy to support terrorist acts has begun. http://www.lynnestewart.org/
http://www.usdoj.gov/ag/speeches/2002/040902agpreparedremarksislamicgroupindictments.htm http://www.usdoj.gov/opa/pr/2003/November/03_crm_631.htm

Anthonius Wamang, a Papuan separatist in Indonesia, has been indicted by a US federal jury in connection with the August 2002 attack against a group of US teachers in which two were killed.

Dwight Watson, who parked his tractor in a pond on the Washington DC mall in protest to cuts in tobacco farming subsidies, and claimed to have explosives, has been sentenced to six years prison for making false threats and destroying government property.

12. Transportation

The European Commission adopted new legislation that defines critical parts of security restricted areas at EU airports to require airport staff to undergo security screening checks when entering security-sensitive zones of airports, matching the security required of passengers. http://www.europa.eu.int/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=IP/04/781&format=HTML&aged=0&language=EN&guiLanguage=en

The US Transportation Security Administration revealed in testimony to the US Senate that as many as six airlines and two reservation systems shared private passenger information with the government and government contractors as part of testing the Computer Assisted Passenger Prescreening System II (CAPPS II). CAPPS II has been delayed for a number of reasons, including the failure to address privacy concerns. http://govt-aff.senate.gov/ and http://commerce.senate.gov

State police at Logan Airport in Boston, Massachusetts, US, are being equipped with handheld devices for remote access to databases including criminal records and other personal information. There are as yet no privacy or other governance safeguards in place.
http://www.computerworld.com/databasetopics/data/software/story/0,10801,94025,00.html
http://www.locateplus.com/News/PressReleases/press_rel.asp

13. Weapons of Mass Destruction

Iran has announced it will resume centrifuge production, thereby building equipment that needs only the addition of uranium to produce highly explosive nuclear material.

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace has published "Universal Compliance - A Strategy for Nuclear Security" that provides a comprehensive agenda to stop nuclear threats. It requires a radical, comprehensive overhaul of current measures, including universal obligations to no new nuclear weapon states, securing all nuclear materials, stopping illegal transfers, devaluing the political and military currency of nuclear weapons, and committing to conflict resolution. It offers four strategic recommendations, including global threat assessment, strengthened enforcement, blocking supply, and reducing demand. And it refers to current regional crises in South Asia, Iran, the Middle East, North Korea and Northeast Asia. http://www.ceip.org/

The National Security Archives has published a collection of 30 years of Nuclear Control Institute papers. http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/collections/index.htm

Two separate animal studies demonstrate SARS vaccine protection. http://www.thelancet.com/ The US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) has also tested a nasal spray vaccine that protects monkeys against SARS. http://www2.niaid.nih.gov/Newsroom/Releases/SARSnasal.htm The British Journal of Ophthalmology also reports that SARS virus has been found in tears, suggesting a potential mode of transmission. http://bjo.bmjjournals.com/cgi/content/full/88/7/968 (subscription)

Johns Hopkins engineering students have developed a remote-controlled robot that detects land mines and marks the location with spray paint. http://www.eet.com/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=22100687

West and central Africa are on the brink of the largest polio epidemic in recent years -- and it could spread further. The epidemic began in northern Nigeria, where polio immunization was suspended late last year. It then spread through Chad and into Sudan. Transmission of wild poliovirus is accelerating and so far this year five times as many children in the area have been paralyzed compared to the same period in 2003. http://www.who.int/mediacentre/releases/2004/pr45/en/

The World Health Organization (WHO) has released new national health authority guidelines for developing information for consumer use of alternative medicines. http://www.who.int/mediacentre/releases/2004/pr44/en/

14. Recently Published

Jeffrey Davidow, "The U.S. and Mexico: The Bear and the Porcupine" Marcus Wiener

Franklin Foer, "How Soccer Explains the World: An Unlikely Theory of Globalization" HarperCollins

Bruce Gilley, "China's Democratic Future: How It Will Happen and Where It Will Lead", Columbia University Press

Stephen F. Hayes, "The Connection: How al Qaeda's Collaboration with Saddam Hussein Has Endangered America" HarperCollins

Richard D. Mahoney, "Getting Away With Murder: The Real Story Behind American Taliban John Walker Lindh" Arcade

John Micklethwaite and Adrian Woolridge, "The Right Nation: Conservative Power in America" Penguin Press

Rana Mitter, "A Bitter Revolution: China's Struggle with the Modern World" Oxford University Press

Philip Weiss, "American Taboo: A Murder in the Peace Corps" HarperCollins

FEATURE ARTICLE: Iraq's Transition

At midnight on June 30, the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) will cease to exist and the interim Iraqi government will take its place.

US President Bush summarized Iraq's transitional plan as these five steps: "We will hand over authority to a sovereign Iraqi government, help establish security, continue rebuilding Iraq's infrastructure, encourage more international support, and move toward a national election that will bring forward new leaders empowered by the Iraqi people". And that this will achieve "a clear goal, understood by all -- to see the Iraqi people in charge of Iraq for the first time in generations".

Step one in this plan is the formal end of the occupation through the handover of power from the CPA to the interim government. Although described as fully sovereign, the interim government is limited in power. UN resolution 1546, unanimously adopted on June 8, reaffirms "the right of the Iraqi people freely to determine their own political future and control their own natural resources" and recognizes international support and commitment to do this. Furthermore, it "Endorses the formation of a sovereign Interim Government as presented on 1 June 2004, which will assume full responsibility and authority by 30 June 2004 for governing Iraq while refraining from taking any actions affecting Iraq's destiny beyond the limited interim period...."

Prime Minister Iyad Allawi will lead the interim government and will have the most authority. He will be supported by President Ghazi Yawer and two deputies, Ibrahim Jaafari and Rowsch Shaways, in roles that are largely symbolic, to help national unity. The government will request that the US and coalition forces remain to provide security; this request will be authorized by the UN and can be rescinded by the interim government.

In addition to June 30, other dates have been established, including elections to the National Assembly at the end of January 2005 and a referendum to vote on a new constitution in the fall of 2005. Following this, general elections for the new government are scheduled for December 2005, at which point the UN mandate for the multinational force expires. This implies they would withdraw, but the new government could ask for further support.

Under this plan, a directly elected government would take office with full sovereignty in January 2006.

Unfortunately, this is not very realistic. The string of devastating attacks, assassinations, and sabotage in the past month provide a measure of instability and the expanding power of the insurgency. At the same time, the lack of infrastructure, no measurable degree of governance, economic dislocation, and the limited numbers of international security forces and virtual absence of an Iraqi security apparatus, are among myriad warning signs that the road ahead is precarious at best.

An excellent analysis of the future for Iraq has just been published by The Fund for Peace. Their report uses a comprehensive analytical methodology. It rates these top conflict indicators:
"mounting demographic pressures; massive movement of refugees or internally displaced persons; legacy of vengeance-seeking group grievance or group paranoia; chronic and sustained human flight; uneven economic development along group lines; sharp and/or severe economic decline; criminalization and/or delegitimization of the state; progressive deterioration of public services; suspension or arbitrary application of human rights; security apparatus operates as a 'state within a state'; rise of factionalized elites; and intervention of other states or external political actors".

Tracking these indicators, Fund for Peace observes the patterns over time. They began this process in April 2003, and the current report incorporates March 2004 data. They say, "The first report on Iraq, covering the first six months of the post-war period from April to September 2003, concluded that the U.S.-led invasion precipitated the collapse of the Iraqi state, which had been deteriorating for years". The new report " concludes that instead of addressing the fundamental requirements of rebuilding the state, post-war policies undertaken by the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) focused on completing the process of regime change, with an emphasis on de-Ba'athification, physical infrastructure reconstruction and incremental political transformation".

In turn, "Iraq descended into what may be described as a failed state syndrome, a condition in which a number of trends reinforced each other to produce spiraling conflict that the country has little or no independent capacity to stop. A year after the invasion, Iraq is as shattered as it was the day that Saddam Hussein was overthrown, the main difference being that organized militias and terrorist groups have gained a foothold they did not have before".

The report details the finding, including the measures of indicators and specific missed opportunities and strategic errors that contribute to the current situation. Based on all this, they lay out five possible scenarios for the future:

1. A Successful Transition to Elections in 2005 and a New Government and Constitution by 2006
2. A Haiti-like Outcome
3. A Somalia-like Outcome
4. A Lebanon-like Outcome
5. Planned partition

These scenarios begin with a peaceful transition led by an international coalition with a close UN/US collaboration and end with a sectarian civil war with different regional powers supporting different factions and negotiating a partition of the country. They suggest that current trends make scenario four the most likely: