CONTENTS:

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK:

1. World
2. Africa
3. Americas
4. Asia Pacific
5. Europe
6. Middle East
7. South Asia
8. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare
9. Finance
10 Human Rights
11. Law and Legal Issues
12. Transportation
13. Weapons of Mass Destruction
14. Recently Published

FEATURE ARTICLE:
The IRA Ceasefire, Ten Years On

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK

1. World

A new International Labor Organization study finds that less than one in ten (8 percent) of the world's workers live in countries with economic security, associated with high levels of happiness, but about three quarters live with economic insecurity that fosters "a world full of anxiety and anger". Rather than income, economic security is associated with personal well being, happiness and tolerance and benefits growth, development and social stability. http://www.ilo.org/public/english/bureau/inf/pr/2004/38.htm

Further complicating discussions with North Korea over its nuclear programs, South Korea, a Non-Proliferation Treaty signatory, has informed the International Atomic Energy Agency that a small amount of enriched uranium had been produced at a nuclear site in South Korea. South Korea reports that the activities were undertaken without government knowledge and were terminated. IAEA is investigating. http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/index.html

2. Africa

As the locust infestation arrives in Senegal and continues to spread, twelve West African countries have agreed to use their armed forces to stop the swarms devastating large areas of West and Central Africa. Believing that only a military mobilization has a chance to limit the spread, they have agreed to set up operational bases in Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger and Senegal. http://www.irinnews.org/report.asp?ReportID=42968

Algerian troops clashed with members of the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat in two incidents in which four militants were killed.

In Burundi, preliminary findings from an investigation into the August 13 massacre of 160 Congolese Tutsi at a refugee camp show that Rwandan Interahamwe and Democratic Republic of Congo Mayi-Mayi forces were responsible. Burundi's rebel National Liberation Front (FNL) claimed responsibility at first, but it is feared that elements from several countries were involved. Investigations continue. Meanwhile, leading Tutsi parties have boycotted a cabinet meeting to discuss the new constitution pending further discussion of power sharing between Hutus and Tutsis. It is unclear whether the country will be prepared to hold the elections scheduled for November 1. http://www.un.org/Depts/dpko/missions/monuc/index.html

Burkina Faso denies Mauritanian accusations that it conspired with Libya in a plot to overthrow Mauritanian President Taya. Libya also denies the charge.

Cameroon and Nigeria met with the UN to discuss implementation of an October 2002 World Court ruling that cedes the Bakassi Peninsula to Cameroon by September 15. Nigeria's House of Representatives has called for a referendum prior to the handover. http://www.un.org/Depts/dpa/prev_dip/africa/office_for_srsg/cnmc/speeches/smtng4.htm

Democratic Republic of Congo has launched a disarmament program of some 15,000 former combatants in the volatile Ituri district. Key rebel group Rally for Congolese Democracy (RCD-Goma) has rejoined the transitional government. Note this interview with dissident army commander Nkunda warning of renewed war. http://www.irinnews.org/report.asp?ReportID=42990

In Equatorial Guinea the trial of 14 suspected foreign mercenaries accused of involvement in a coup plot against the President, was suspended. The court decided that more time was needed in order to consider evidence from abroad, including recent investigations in South Africa connected with international financing of the alleged plot. The government has requested international arrest warrants for a number of suspects including London-based businessman Greg Wales and international oil dealer Elie Khalil. Last week all but one (Britain Simon Mann, close friend of Mark Thatcher) of the 67 suspected mercenaries held in Zimbabwe were absolved of arms charges.

The 15 Eritreans that hijacked a Libyan aircraft deporting them have been tried in Sudan and sentenced to five years in prison.

Sanctions imposed against Guinea-Bissau by the US after the September 14, 2003 coup have been lifted.

Nigeria's Port Harcourt has been the scene of bloody fighting that began at the end of last week when members of a cult began attacking residents, members of a rival cult got involved, and then the army intervened. Cult conflicts are complicated between inter-ethnic rivalries and targeting of non-indigenous people living along the waterfront. A number of gangs operating in the area steal fuel and use the proceeds to fund weapons. Dozens of people were killed before security forces gained a measure of control. In response to the escalating violence, the regional governor dismissed his cabinet, began to reorganize security arrangements, and brought in more troops that are patrolling 24 hours a day.

Sudan has missed the UN Security Council deadline to show substantial, irreversible and verifiable progress towards full security in Darfur. Although part of the Popular Defense Force was disarmed, other militias, including the Government-supported Janjaweed, were not. Instead, their attacks have continued and no concrete steps had been taken to bring to justice or even identify any of the militia leaders or the perpetrators of the attacks. Human rights violations have continued with impunity. The UN envoy reporting on the situation called for more resources, including a larger international force. Sudan has rejected the findings and recommendations, including actions against Janjaweed, but is undertaking discussions with two rebel groups the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) and the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM). Human Rights Watch warns that creating "safe areas" in Darfur may consolidate ethnic cleansing rather than protect civilians. Meanwhile, on the other side of the country, the government and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement agreed to extend their truce another three months.
http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2004/sc8180.doc.htm
http://www.un.org/Docs/journal/asp/ws.asp?m=S/2004/703
http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=11834&Cr=sudan&Cr1=
http://www.hrw.org/english/docs/2004/09/01/darfur9286.htm
http://web.amnesty.org/pages/sdn-index-eng

Tanzania will distribute free anti-retroviral drugs (ARVs) to HIV/AIDS patients beginning in October.

3. Americas

An Argentine federal court acquitted all five men accused as accessories to the July 1994 Jewish community center bombing that killed 85 and injured 300 and was the deadliest such incident in the country's history.

Guatemalan authorities are investigating deadly violence during the eviction of squatter peasants from a farm. About 2,000 police, some heavily armed, arrived to remove 3,000 peasants. At least nine were killed but 40 people are still missing and reports they were summarily executed and buried are being investigated.

In Haiti rebel soldiers that helped overthrow former president Aristide took over the town of Petit Goave in the south in connection with demands to establish a new army.

Mexican guerillas of the Jaramillista Morelense 23 de Mayo Commando Group detonated a low-level explosion at state telephone offices and left a message opposing President Foxes' policies and calling for a popular revolution.

The US Federal Bureau of Investigation has released a new profile and photos, including information about the construction of the device, to obtain information on the "Collarbomber". http://pittsburgh.fbi.gov/pressrel/2004/collarbomber.htm http://www.fbi.gov/mostwant/seekinfo/erie.htm
http://www.fbi.gov/page2/sept03/site090903.htm

The Department of Homeland Security names September "National Preparedness Month" and has put together a coalition of organizations whose activities will highlight individual preparedness for the month. http://www.dhs.gov/dhspublic/display?content=3963

4. Asia Pacific

Australia has reviewed their list of illegal terrorist organizations and re-listed al Qaeda and Jemaah Islamiah that were first banned after the 2002 Bali bombings. http://www.dfat.gov.au/icat/index.html http://www.nationalsecurity.gov.au/

China has conducted military exercises in the majority Uighur area in the northwest region of Xinjiang. The operation, called "Controlling East Turkestan" was designed to suppress separatism in the predominantly Muslim area.

Indonesian troops and separatist rebels of the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) clashed in several incidents, killing two rebels and two civilians.

Kazakhstan is considering building barriers at the Uzbek border to reduce smuggling.

A Malaysian court has rejected review of the case of five alleged members of the Malaysian Militant Group (KMM), possibly linked to Jemaah Islamiah, and allow their detention without charge or trial to continue. They were arrested in mid-201 and under Malaysia's controversial internal security laws can be held without charge or trial for two years, but the High Court has ruled that it is permissible for the government to extend this period and effectively detain suspects indefinitely.

Papua New Guinea has deployed troops to the Indonesian border following reported clashes with pro-independence fighters from Indonesia's West Papua province. A contingent of 18 Australian police arrived in the country in the first phase of a law-and-order operation.

In southern Thailand, suspected Islamic militants killed two police informants and wounded a government in two drive-by shootings.

Vietnam's National Day on September 2 was the occasion to free more than 8,000 prisoners, including several foreigners and people jailed for their political or religious beliefs.

5. Europe

In Italy, the previously unknown RKL (Resistenzia Kene Lankas, Resistance With No Borders) claimed responsibility for the failed effort to blow up the Nassiriya monument in Nuoro. The bomb had a fault that prevented its exploding.

The Chechen electoral commission announced that Alu Alkhanov, Moscow's candidate in the presidential poll, had nearly 74 percent of the votes with an election turnout of 85 percent. Observers have questioned the results but Alkhanov will nonetheless succeed Akhmad Kadyrov, who was assassinated on May 9. Chechen separatists had already warned he too will be killed and have undertaken a series of deadly attacks surrounding the election.

Downing two civilian aircraft last week was the first strike and it was followed quickly by a bomb outside a Moscow subway station. This attack killed ten and injured 50. There have also been a string of other incidents in Chechnya and Ingushetia.

Despite this spate of terrorist attacks inside Russia, no one could have been prepared for the devastating outcome of the hostage crisis at a school in North Ossetia. Up to 1200 teachers, parents and children were starting the first day of school on Wednesday, September 1, when a group of attackers entered the school, armed and equipped with explosives they distributed around the school. The record of events is still incomplete and confusing at this time, but on Friday the situation deteriorated to violent chaos in which more than 350 people - half of them children - were killed and more than 700 were wounded. Many of the injuries are very serious and as efforts to retrieve additional victims in the school continue the death toll is likely to rise. The school complex was badly damaged by fire and explosives and part of the building collapsed, further complicating the effort to retrieve and identify the victims. This disaster will have long-term effects not only on the individuals caught up in it but also on the larger body politic. It has raised questions about government transparency and control of the media as well as throwing even more doubt over its failed policies in Chechnya.

For background on Chechnya and the Caucasus see:
https://terrorismcentral.com/Newsletters/2002/110302.html#FeatureArticle
https://terrorismcentral.com/Newsletters/2002/111002.html#FeatureArticle

Turkish commando forces operating in the Kurdish areas bordering Iraq launched offensive operations against separatist rebel bases. Thirteen people have been killed in the fighting.

6. Middle East

In the Gaza Strip, Israeli forces shot and killed a Palestinian man carrying an explosive device on Monday night and on Tuesday shot dead a 14-year-old as they demolished a building. Demolitions continued during the week and Gaza was closed entirely after suicide bombings on Tuesday (see below). Even the head of the UN operation in the region was prohibited to leave Gaza to do his work in the West Bank. During anti-tunnel operations on Thursday, soldiers killed four Palestinians and wounded 20, and on Friday two armed Palestinians were killed, one carrying an explosive device.

Iran has arrested dozens of people accused of membership in the People's Mujahedin Organization (MKO) and of passing information about Iran's nuclear activities to its enemies.

"Iraq desperately needs an economic recovery strategy to escape its vicious circle of hardship, discontent and violence. The economy suffers not only from a crushing legacy of Baathist misrule, war, and sanctions, but also from the ill-prepared, misdirected performance of the Coalition Provisional Authority." This is the finding of "Reconstructing Iraq", a new report from the International Crisis Group. http://www.crisisweb.org/home/index.cfm?l=1&id=2936&m=1

Violence in Iraq this week included the death of more than 12 Iraqis in a US air strike on Falluja; suicide car bombs in Kirkuk that killed nine and 11; and fighting between US forces and insurgents in Mosul that killed 8 and injured 40. Fighting has continued in the north over the weekend that also saw the arrest of some 500 suspected militants further south. Twelve hostages from Nepal were executed; the first beheaded in front of a camera and the others shot. The gruesome footage led to violent protests in Nepal (see South Asia, below). Beheading has become the weapon of choice for insurgents, not least because of its dramatic propaganda value.

Israel was attached by a two suicide bombings on buses in the city of Beersheba on Tuesday, August 31. Both bombers and sixteen people were killed, including a 4-year-old, and more than a hundred were injured. Hamas claimed responsibility. This was the first attack in nearly six months. Israel responded with renewed operations in Gaza (the two bombers were from Hebron), and promises a further assassination campaign against Hamas leaders, wherever they are.

More seriously, Israel has accused Syria of responsibility for the bombings, connecting Hizbollah activity and Iran with Hamas in Damascus, and threaten air strikes inside Syria.

Syria was also under pressure for its role in Lebanon, where the President's term was recently extended under pressure from Syria. The UN Security Council voted for free elections, the withdrawal of foreign forces, the disbanding of all militias and the extension of government control throughout the country. The resolution was passed with nine votes in favor and six abstentions. http://www.un.org/Docs/journal/asp/ws.asp?m=s/res/1559(2004)

Syria has fiercely defended itself and warned against exacerbating regional deterioration.

7. South Asia

In Afghanistan, the voluntary repatriation of refugees returning from Iran has reached the milestone of one million people. Despite such progress, authorities warn of increased attacks, predominantly from Taliban, ahead of the October presidential elections. US operations against the Taliban killed several purported militants. Investigations are underway into whether civilians were killed in a US air attack at a village, where locals say eight died. The Taliban took responsibility for the car bombing last Sunday, in which the death toll has risen to six.

India and Pakistan have opened talks between the two foreign ministers on the disputed territory of Kashmir.

In Nepal, the execution of twelve hostages by Iraqi insurgents generated a violent response. Rioting mobs in Kathmandu stormed mosques, attacked government buildings, and ransacked the offices of Qatar Airways and Gulf Air. Rioting continued for three days, and at least four people were killed. A curfew has been put in place. Meanwhile, Maoist rebel leader Prachanda ruled out peace talks with the government but left open the possibility of direct talks with the king.

In Pakistan, a bomb at a bazaar in Balochistan province killed three and injured 15. Disgruntled tribesmen are suspected.

Sri Lanka's Tamil Tigers' chief representative has met with the Norwegian peace envoy to Sri Lanka to discuss the ceasefire agreement, recent political killings and violence, and have arranged a meeting between the Tigers and the Sri Lankan army.

8. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare

A number of vulnerabilities in all releases of MIT Kerberos 5 authentication system could allow an attacker to gain root control to authentication servers. Patches are available and should be undertaken before the highly critical vulnerabilities are exploited. http://secunia.com/advisories/12408/

A study conducted by Research Triangle Park and Logistics Management Institute for the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) identifies $15.8 billion in costs associated with avoidance, mitigation and delay activities and redundant paper management required to deal data-exchange problems arising from the lack of software interoperability. http://www.bfrl.nist.gov/oae/oae.html

NIST has also issued new draft computer security checklists. http://csrc.nist.gov/checklists/index.html

AssetMetrix reports that about 10 percent of all Windows desktop machines will suffer compatibility problems following installation of Microsoft's SP 2 update. In particular, it affects small companies and those running older or less well-known versions of software.
http://www.assetmetrix.com/solutions/xpsp2/

Junko Yoshida reports that "Tests reveal e-passport security flaw: U.S. unfazed at copying of unencrypted data" the August 30 issue of Electronic Engineering Times. http://www.eet.com/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=45400010

Alice Dragoon describes tactics for making sites spoof-proof and protecting online transactions in "Fighting Phish, Fakes and Frauds" in the September 1 issue of CIO. http://www.cio.com/archive/090104/phish.html

9. Finance

Former employees of Riggs Bank appear to have engaged in criminal money laundering activities related to the bank accounts of former Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A57545-2004Sep2.html

One consequence of the Riggs affair has been the closure of the Sudan Embassy in Washington. Riggs closed their account last June and they have been unable to open an account in another bank, despite some assistance from the State Department. http://www.sudanembassy.org/default.asp?page=viewstory&id=313

And in a more humorous vein, former Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole became the subject of a suspicious activity report because he preferred to carry large amounts of cash rather than checks or credit cards. http://money.cnn.com/services/tickerheadlines/for5/200409022349DOWJONESDJONLINE000947_FORTUNE5.htm

A report on massive financial fraud connected with Hollinger International finds that former Chief Executive Conrad Black and other associates used shell companies in Barbados to avoid personal taxation.
http://www.hollinger.com/
http://www.sec.gov/litigation/complaints/comp18550.htm
https://terrorismcentral.com/Newsletters/2004/082904.html#FeatureArticle
Following a recent Security Council resolution which called on the experts monitoring the weapons embargo against Somalia to "continue refining and updating information on the draft list of those who continue to violate the arms embargo inside and outside Somalia, and their active supporters, for possible future measures", the panel's mandate has been extended for six months. http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2004/sc8169.doc.htm

The International Monetary Fund issues its assessment of supervision and regulation of the financial sector in the Kingdom of the Netherlands - Netherlands Antilles. They suggested that:

10. Human Rights

August 30 marked the International Day of the Disappeared. The UN appealed to all governments to take preventive action and end impunity for the responsible security forces and armed bands. Particular concerns were expressed over the following cases:

The average number of people seeking asylum each month in 30 industrialized countries has fallen to the level last seen in 1987. In the first half of the year claims have been 22 percent lower than 2003. The top five asylum countries were France, UK, US, Germany and Austria. In the EU, applications to the 14 older members fell by 20 percent but among six new members they increased by 31 percent, the only region with a major increase. Cyprus, Slovakia and Poland had significant increases. Russians were the largest group of asylum seekers, followed by people from Serbia and Montenegro.
http://www.unhcr.ch/cgi-bin/texis/vtx/home/+ywwBmemUnDexxwwwwmwwwwwwwmFqnN0bIhFqnN0bItFqnDni5zFqnN0bIAFqnN0bIDzmxwwwwwwwGFqewPQoDm15BGowco5nmaqd1DBGon5aroBacdin5Baw5Oc1MaD1MxnG5a5oDqnaWK8sCa5wO5auNlg21FqnN0bI/opendoc.htm

The US Census Bureau announced it will no longer release sensitive data to law enforcement agencies and organizations or individuals without prior approval by the appropriate Associate Director. They had been criticized for providing detailed demographic data about Arab and other minority populations. http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/directors_corner/002491.html

11. Law and Legal Issues

Ryan Anderson, ("Amir Abdul Rashid", a former US national guardsman, has been found guilty of trying to make contact with al Qaeda and provide it help, including offering information about army strength and tactics to undercover agents posing as militants.

Arfin ("John Wong Ah Hung") of Singapore has been charged in absentia in Thailand with conspiring with four Thai Muslims to bomb western interests and beach resorts. He is in prison under Singapore's strict security laws for suspected membership of Jemaah Islamiah. Thailand is developing an extradition request so Arfin can stand trial with his alleged co-conspirators.

Radoslav Brdjanin, former prominent Bosnian Serb political leader, has been sentenced, by the international court in The Hague, to 32 years in prison for torture, willful killing and other crimes connected with an ethnic cleansing campaign but was acquitted of genocide and extermination. http://www.un.org/icty/pressreal/2004/p888-e.htm

Joshua Dariye, former governor Plateau state in Nigeria, has been arrested in London on suspicion of money laundering.

Shahar Dvir-Zeliger, a Jewish extremist, has been convicted in Israeli court for belonging to an organisation that attacked mainly Arab schools, and of four other charges. The unnamed organization murdered eight Palestinians and injuring 16 in 2001-2. It is the first time that an Israeli court acknowledged a Jewish terrorist organization although the extremist groups Kach and Kahane Chai have been considered terrorist organizations.

Abu Hamza, a militant cleric in the UK, is in prison following a US extradition request but is no longer being questioned by UK authorities regarding alleged terror offences.

Mamdouh Hamze has pleaded not guilty in British court to charges of inciting the murder of four Egyptian government officials. Hamza is a respected engineer and writer in Egypt and pleaded not guilty. He was freed on bail pending a trial next May.

Brad Karger was arrested in Massachusetts, US, for a pipe bombing at a Amaranth Bio, a commercial biotech laboratory.

Karim Koubriti and Abdel-Ileh Elmardoudi were convicted in June 2003 of conspiracy to provide material support for terrorism as well as fraud and misuse of visa and other documents. Admitting prosecutorial misconduct, the Justice Department asked that the terrorism charges be dismissed. Federal Judge Rosen has done so but says they may face new trials on the other charges. The case had been praised by the Bush administration as a major victory in the "war on terrorism". http://www.mied.uscourts.gov/_opinions/Rosenpdf/01-cr-80778.pdf

Johan Meyer has been charged in South Africa with nuclear trafficking. The owner of an engineering plant, he denies the charges.

Former Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic, representing himself, opened his defense at The Hague trial on charges of genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes during the 1990s Balkan conflict. Shortly thereafter, the court imposed defense counsel on him to ease his workload and reduce the chance of further health-related delays to this long-running trial. http://www.un.org/icty/pressreal/2004/p890-e.htm

Aloys Simba's genocide trial has opened at the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda in Tanzania. The former army lieutenant colonel is charges with helping to plan, order and carry out the 1994 massacre, acting as an army officer even though he was retired. http://www.ictr.org/default.htm

Masrizel bin Ali Umar ("Tohir") was found guilty in Indonesian court of buying the truck used in the Marriott bombing of August 2003 and sentenced to ten years prison.

12. Transportation

The US Department of Homeland Security's Inspector General has been highly critical of the Federal Air Marshal Service (FAMS). Its evaluation finds major deficiencies in "policies governing background investigation and adjudication requirements, field office training, reservist selection, medical qualifications, disciplinary actions, and travel procedures" and makes a number of recommendations for improvement. http://www.dhs.gov/dhspublic/interweb/assetlibrary/OIG_04-32_0804.pdf

Following the Russian airline crashes connected with explosives, the US Transportation Security Administration ordered new security measures for passengers and cargo for Delta and Aeroflot that have nonstop flights between the US and Russia.

Yemen's Interior Ministry has issued a warning of terrorist threats against its ports and given security forces instructions for enhanced precautionary measures.

13. Weapons of Mass Destruction

The European Commission has launched legal proceedings against Britain over nuclear safety at the Sellafield reprocessing plant to ensure inspectors have the necessary access to the operation.

Japan's Kansai Electric Power Co (Kepco) has been allowed to resume operations at two of its 11 nuclear reactors. http://www.kepco.co.jp/english/

Australia's Northern Territory is considering prosecuting Energy Resources of Australia for an incident last March where the Ranger uranium mine site water supply became contaminated and 28 workers became ill.
http://www.deh.gov.au/ssd/&e=7507
http://www.energyres.com.au/

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is questioning both Iran and Libya on statements of their nuclear programs and continues to work for clarity regarding the respective situations. http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/Focus/IaeaIran/index.shtml http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/Focus/IaeaLibya/index.shtml

Iran plans to test a facility to process uranium but IAEA has not yet confirmed whether that is part of a nuclear weapons program.

IAEA is also conducting an investigation in South Korea regarding atomic experiments that had been previously undisclosed (see World, above). http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/PressReleases/2004/prn200408.html

Erasmus Medical Center in Rotterdam reports their finding that the deadly H5N1 strain of influenza has the potential to be spread by cats. It had been believed that cats could not be infected and the World Health Organization plans additional investigations.
http://sciencenow.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/2004/902/1 (registration)
http://www.who.int/mediacentre/en/

"Transnational Issues in Quarantine" was the topic of a conference earlier this year, covering issues such as the legal foundation for quarantine, regional cooperation, strategic planning and bioterrorism risks. A summary of the conference is the September issue of "Emerging Infectious Diseases" is posted at http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol10no9/04-0281.htm and the complete conference report at http://www.dtra.mil/about/ASCO/wpc/wpc.cfm.

14. Recently Published

Chris Mackey and Greg Miller, "The Interrogators: Inside the secret War Against al-Qaeda" Little Brown

Chris Mathers, "Crime School: Money Laundering: True Crime Meets the World of Business and Finance" Firefly Books

Justin Marozzi, "Tamerlane: Sword of Islam, Conqueror of the World" Harper Collins

Toby Shelley, "Endgame in the Western Sahara: What Future For Africa's Last Colony?" Zed Books

Michael A. Smerconish, "Flying Blind: How Political Correctness Continues to Compromise Airline Security Post-9/11" Running Press

Steve J Stern, "Remembering Pinochet's Chile: On the Eve of London 1998" Duke University Press

Strobe Talbott, "Engaging India: Diplomacy, Democracy and the Bomb" Brookings Institution http://bookstore.brookings.edu/book_details.asp?product%5Fid=12008

James Wolcott, "Attack Poodles and Other Media Mutants: The Looting of the News in a Time of Terror" Miramax

FEATURE ARTICLE: The IRA Ceasefire, Ten Years On

On August 31, 1994 the Irish Republican Army (IRA) released the following statement:

After 25 years of bombings and shootings that had killed more than 3,000 people, this first momentous event and the loyalist ceasefire that followed on October 13, paved the way for gradual progress towards a peaceful settlement of the political process. For the first time in 22 years, British officials held formal talks with representatives of Sinn Fein, the political party of republicans that is closely connected with the IRA.

The ceasefire was no panacea. It lasted only until February 9, 1996 when a huge bomb at London's Docklands killed two people, injured more than a hundred, and caused GBP85 million in damage, and a new ceasefire was not in place until July 1997.

The second ceasefire opened the way to multi-party talks that culminated in the Good Friday Agreement of 1998. This Agreement, also known as the Belfast Agreement, laid out plans for devolved government, cross-border institutions, prisoner releases, decommissioning, and criminal justice reforms. After referendums in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland endorsed the measures, assembly elections were held in the north and the first inclusive government was elected in November 1999.

Perhaps the most dominant issue that had not been resolved in the Agreement was the question of IRA arms. Loyalists argue that IRA weapons must be destroyed as a precondition to negotiations while republicans argue that disarmament must take place among all parties. Barely three months after the elections, this unresolved issue led to suspension of the Northern Ireland Executive. The suspension was lifted when the IRA made a symbolic concession on arms, but the issue remained confrontational and forced the IRA to agree to limited decommissioning:

The IICD (Independent International Commission on Decommissioning) verified that some arms caches had been put beyond use and progress towards devolution continued until October 2002 when, following allegations of a Sinn Fein/IRA spy ring, the assembly was again suspended. With no progress made over the next months, assembly elections were postponed and only now are negotiations beginning to arrange new elections and restore devolution.

Today, as negotiations slowly resume, Northern Ireland is a very different place.

Perhaps most notable is the change in the number of people killed by paramilitary violence. In the ten years after the ceasefire 173 people died while in the ten years before the ceasefire, 870 had been killed. That works out to about one death per month, rather than two each week. The IRA was responsible for killing 400 people in the decade before the ceasefire but only 30 in the same time span afterward. Today, loyalist violence causes ten times more deaths than does republican. (Note the IICD report for current details of paramilitary violence.)

Social and political changes have been correspondingly profound. With greater security, there is a lower police presence and more civil groups participating in community efforts. The population has grown, mostly among the Catholic population, raising the probability that Protestants will not be a majority in the future. With significant economic growth and improved prosperity, sectarian issues have taken on less importance and extremism turns more toward equilibrium. If the negotiators are able to leverage the center rather than the extremes, their efforts are likely to bear fruit.

Further Reading:

HOW TO CONTACT US:

Please contact us with your questions or comments by sending email to .

We look forward to hearing from you.
Editorial Team
TerrorismCentral
All Rights Reserved. Copyright © 2004 by TerrorismCentral.