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CONTENTS:

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK:

1. World
2. Africa
3. Americas
4. Asia Pacific
5. Europe
6. Middle East
7. South Asia
8. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare
9. Finance
10 Human Rights
11. Law and Legal Issues
12. Transportation
13. Weapons of Mass Destruction
14. Recently Published

FEATURE ARTICLE:
Papua New Guinea: Preventing Another Failed State?

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK

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1. World

A massive earthquake that struck near Aceh, Indonesia sparked a tsunami across the Indian Ocean that has killed thousands across south and east Asia. Worst hit were southern India and Sri Lanka, where a national disaster has been declared. The 8.9 magnitude quake, the largest in 40 years, led to massive sea surges with widespread coastal and inland destruction. Casualty figures across the region are rising as the waters begin to recede.

The Pope's annual Christmas message expressed grave concerns over continued conflict, pointing to Iraq, the Sudan, the Middle East and other tragedies, and called for peaceful solutions to all such problems. The Archbishop of Canterbury criticized the war in Iraq diverting billions that could have helped relieve suffering and the Queen's Christmas speech called for more tolerance.

As news of the first human case of avian influenza in Japan came out, southeast Asian countries completed a 2-day meeting that ended with a plan for regional collaboration to help combat the deadly disease. It includes epidemiology, surveillance, alerts, diagnosis, containment, emergency preparedness, coordination and public awareness. There is a press report that Taiwan could use the SARS virus to attack China.

North Korea has threatened to boycott 6-nation talks if Japan is included. Japan threatened sanctions against North Korea following receipt of remains said to be kidnapped Japanese citizens but that forensic analysis showed to be other people.

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2. Africa

"The Angolan army arbitrarily detained and tortured civilians with impunity in Cabinda and continues to restrict their freedom of movement despite an apparent end to the decades-long separatist conflict in the oil-rich enclave" is the finding of a new report from Human Rights Watch.
http://www.hrw.org/english/docs/2004/12/23/angola9922.htm

A UN buffer zone set up in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo has helped limit the fighting in the region. Meanwhile, "The Continuing Crisis in Congo's Department of Pool" reports on the lingering effects of the conflicts that occurred 1998-2003 and a forthcoming British parliament report finds widespread arms smuggling that encourages armed groups to return to war. http://www.catholicrelief.org/our_work/where_we_work/overseas/Africa/congo-brazzaville/pool_study/index.cfm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/4122877.stm

Joint Ivory Coast/UN patrols have begun in the capital, Ajidjan, to improve security. In the southern coastal areas 18 people were killed in ethnic violence. The relative lull in fighting has had no impact on widespread, large-scale illegal logging or on continued massive human rights abuses.

Mozambique's National Elections Commission announced Armando Emilio Guebuza of the ruling Frelimo party won the presidential election and gained a majority of parliamentary sears.

Somalia's transitional parliament approved Prime Minister Ali Muhammad Gedi's appointment after agreeing that the president had now complied with the interim charter.

In Sudan a polio epidemic offers another deadly threat in an already troubled country, including a worsening crisis in the Darfur region. Facing the failure to address continued abuse the US passed legislation permitting the President to impose sanctions. UN Secretary General Annan agreed that the current approach is not working and called on the Security Council to reassess its actions. Talks between southern rebels and the government have been suspended until next year, when they plan to resolve outstanding issues in preparation for a signing ceremony in January.

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3. Americas

Colombian church spokesmen have accused the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) of responsibility in killing a priest missing since December 8 and believed buried by the rebels. FARC rebels have kidnapped some 40 tourists vacationing at a spa in the north.

In Honduras security has been increased amid heightened tensions following the massacre of 26 bus passengers. Investigations are underway but point to members of the Mara Salvatrucha youth gang.

Mexico reported an increase in kidnap-extortion swindles at the US border ahead of the holidays, including at least eight cases in one week in which a ransom was paid but the relative had not been kidnapped.

Puerto Ricans narrowly elected Anibal Acevedo Vila of the ruling Popular Democratic Party governor.

US abuse of Afghan and Iraqi prisoners continued after the Abu Ghraib prison scandal and despite recent US court rulings regarding treatment of detainees. The allegations have been raised in a lawsuit by the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) and based on documents acquired under the Freedom of Information Act.
http://www.aclu.org/SafeandFree/SafeandFree.cfm?ID=17224&c=206

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4. Asia Pacific

Australia sent another hundred peacekeeping troops to the Solomon Islands after one was shot dead by a sniper.
China acknowledged that a draft anti-secession law announced on December 17 was targeted against Taiwanese independence an din favor of peaceful reunification.

East Timor and Indonesia announced a joint commission to investigate the violence surrounding the 1999 independence vote in which more than a thousand people were killed but none of those involved were held accountable. Indonesia has rejected a UN investigation into the same human rights abuses.

Indonesia increased security for the Christmas holiday and some Christians have moved from churches to more secure locations, including offices and hotels.

Malaysia has asked to see the photographic proof of militant training centers in the country claimed by Thailand.

In Thailand, some 5,000 teachers in the south have gone on strike to demand improved security from attacks, including recent kidnap threats by Muslim militants. Another 2,000 police are to be sent to the area. Further violence in the south last week included a bomb on a motorcycle that killed one and injured nine and a bomb that exploded at the Siam Commercial Bank, killing two and injuring eight.

Uzbekistan is voting in parliamentary elections from which opposition candidates have been banned for "technical" reasons.

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5. Europe

In Bosnia, international peacekeepers have opened up a bunker originally part of Tito's secret military and now believed once used by war crimes suspect General Ratko Mladic.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4122257.stm

Russian police raided the offices of the anarchist National-Bolshevik Party (NBP) apparently as part of a government crackdown against such organizations.

Spain's parliamentary commission investigating the March 11 Madrid train bombings has ended the hearings after five months. No date has been set for the final report. Spanish police arrested four suspected terrorists believed to have been attempting to purchase explosives and with possible international connections: they are being questioned.

Ukrainians are voting in the second presidential run-off election. The Supreme Court found that the previous election was fraudulent and has since also rejected as unconstitutional a key change to election laws that had restricted home voting to the disabled. Home voting has been associated with ballot stuffing in the prior poll. For this election more than 12,000 foreign election observers have been registered.

Britain's Freedom of Information Act takes effect next week.

In Northern Ireland a series of firebombs has been connected to dissident republicans. Shop owners have been warned to check their premises carefully.

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6. Middle East

In Gaza, Israeli forces conducted another incursion in response to rocket attacks. During the operations, five Palestinians were killed and more wounded, including about a dozen schoolboys. One of those killed was a 16-year-old member of the Al Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades.

Iran has placed its military on standby to protect its nuclear facilities from attack. In Bam, people are marking the first anniversary of the disastrous earthquake that killed more than 40,000 people.

Violence in Iraq took no holiday. On the 25th a suicide tanker bomb in Baghdad killed at least eight and injured 13. This attack paled compared to the suicide bombing at the US army base in Mosul that killed 24 and injured more than 80. In Fallujah refugees trickled back to a city largely in ruins, to be met with further US bombing. Contrack has become the first large US contractor to pull out of Iraq because of worsening security. Election observers for the scheduled January vote will be operating mostly out of Jordan because of insecurity.

Qatar extradited two unnamed Russian intelligence agents convicted of murdering an exiled Chechen rebel leader. The two men will serve the remainder of their life sentences in Russia.

Saudi Arabia recalled their ambassador to Libya and expelled the Libyan ambassador following reports of a Libyan plot to assassinate the crown prince. Libya denies the allegations. In advance of the first nationwide municipal elections in 40 years, scheduled for February 10, voter registration has been below 40 percent.

In the West Bank municipal elections are being held for the first time since 1976. Unofficial results show that Fatah won 12 local councils and Hamas, contending for the first time, won seven. Another seven results are unknown. Also in the West Bank, separate shooting attacks killed two security guards, Israeli troops killed Al Aqsa Brigades commander Thaer Abu Kamal and killed three Palestinians in a Tulkarm refugee camp operation.

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7. South Asia

Afghan President Karzai named his new cabinet, removing warlords from top posts and creating a new Counter-narcotics Ministry, demonstrating the importance of countering the opium industry. Presidential poll runner-up Yunus Qanuni is forming a new party, "New Afghanistan", that will contest the April parliamentary elections. Suspected Taliban attacked a military checkpoint, killing six, and sporadic violence attributed to regional warlords continues.

India's former Prime Minister, Narasimha Rao, died December 23, age 83. Rao served after the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi in 1991, until 1996, and was known as the father of economic reform. Indian rebel leader Paresh Barua of the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) had an emergency operation and will be unable to manage the organization for some time.

A grenade exploded at a market in Indian-administered Kashmir, killing two civilians. Separatists missed the police line that was their target.

In Nepal, fighting between the government and Maoist rebels has escalated, as have human rights abuses. Rebels blockaded Kathmandu for more than two days and clashes in the west killed at least 22 rebels, two soldiers, and ten civilians.

Pakistani police raided locations in Lahore last weekend, arresting four suspected militants. In a rocket attack in Balochistan, four soldiers were killed.

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8. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare

The US Federal Trade Commission issued a warning against check overpayment scams. These frauds target people selling valuable items like cars through classified ads or online auction sites. The "buyer" comes up with a reason for writing the check for more than the purchase price and asks the seller to wire back the difference when the check bounces. The check turns out to be fraudulent, leaving the seller liable for the full amount. Another version is receiving a check for lottery winnings on which they are asked to pay taxes for fees.
http://www.ftc.gov/opa/2004/12/checkoverpayment.htm

For a "Report on the Erroneous Fingerprint Individualization in the Madrid Train Bombing Case" see the January 2005 issue of Forensic Science Communications.
http://www.fbi.gov/hq/lab/fsc/current/special_report/2005_special_report.htm

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9. Finance

The Bank of England has frozen the assets of the Movement for Islamic Reform in Arabia because "Her Majesty's Treasury have reasonable grounds for suspecting that the entity is or may be a person acting on behalf of Saad Rashed Mohammad Al-Faqih who is a listed person under UN Security Council Resolution 1390". Mr al-Faqih is a prominent Saudi dissident who has been linked to al Qaeda. A number of other individuals were also sanctioned.
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/pressreleases/2004/177.pdf
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/pressreleases/2004/176.pdf

The US Treasury has designated Adel Abdul Jalil Batterjee and Saad Rashed Mohammad al-Faqih for providing financial and material support to al Qaida and Osama bin Laden (UBL) through their charitable organizations. Their names have also been submitted to the UN 1267 Committee.
http://www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/js2164.htm

In light of continued failures to manage natural resources, particularly diamonds and timber, the UN Security Council has renewed all trade sanctions on Liberia.
http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2004/sc8275.doc.htm

In Northern Ireland sophisticated bank robbers stole more than GBP20 million. One of the largest cash robberies in the UK, police suspect that the sophisticated nature of the robbery could indicate paramilitary involvement. There have been a number of raids against prominent republicans. The Irish Republican Army (IRA) denies any involvement and Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams has complained about the tactics and suggested the "securocrats" want to harm the peace process.

Two panels in Haiti investigating corruption allegations under former President Jean-Bertrand Aristide report millions were paid into bank accounts held by one of Aristide's foundations.
http://www.thestate.com/mld/thestate/news/world/10470547.htm

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10. Human Rights

The annual "Freedom in the World" report from Freedom House "shows that Russia was the only country to register a negative category change in 2004, moving from Partly Free to Not Free. However, Russia was not the only country in the former Soviet Union that experienced political and civic changes: setbacks took place in Belarus and Armenia, while freedom gained in the aftermath of civic protests in Georgia and Ukraine".
http://www.freedomhouse.org/media/pressrel/122004.htm

France and the US have prohibited Arabic television station Al-Manar from broadcasting or supporting it because they say the network, Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, incites violence.
http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/dpb/2004/39934.htm

Greece has launched an emergency investigation into findings that police tortured Afghan immigrants.

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11. Law and Legal Issues

Shoko Asahara, founder of Aum Supreme Truth cult, was found able to stand trial in the appeal of his death sentence despite some evidence of mental deterioration.

Hassan el-Haski has been charged in Spain with 191 counts of murder connected to the March 11 Madrid bombings; 1,000 counts of attempted murder; and membership in the Moroccan Islamic Combat Group.

Rashid Sweleh Hemed, accused in the 1998 US embasy bombing in Tanzania, has been acquitted and released.

Zara Murtazaliyeva, a Chechen, pleaded not guilty in Russian court to accusations of preparing a series of terrorist attacks.

Abdellah Tabarak, held in Guantanamo Bay for two years on suspicion of being a bodyguard for Osama bin Laden before being repatriated to Morocco, has been released with monitoring while awaiting trial. He is accused with four others of belonging to a criminal gang.

Dusan Tesic, a former Bosnian Serb policeman, has been arrested for a second time for supporting a war crimes suspect.

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12. Transportation

The US Government Accountability Office released "General Aviation Security: Increased Federal Oversight Is Needed, but Continued Partnership with the Private Sector Is Critical
to Long-Term Success", investigating the use of general aviation (GA) aircraft (all except commercial and military) for terrorist attacks, given that the September 11 attackers learned how to fly at GA flight schools. Risk management plans and assessments have not been undertaken, but: "industry and TSA officials stated that the small size, lack of fuel capacity, and minimal destructive power of most general aviation aircraft make them unattractive to terrorists and, thereby, reduce the possibility of threat associated with their misuse".
http://www.gao.gov/atext/d05144.txt
http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-05-144

The US Transportation Security Administration, responding to passenger complaints, has issued guidance for appropriate pat-downs.
http://www.tsa.gov/public/display?theme=8&content=09000519800eb515

The US Department of Homeland Security's Inspector General finds that stolen passports held by foreigners are rarely detected. Of 78 known stolen passports, 57 gained entry.
http://www.dhs.gov/dhspublic/interweb/assetlibrary/OIG_05-07_Dec04.pdf

Press reports cite warnings that the Islamic Combat Group could be planning to exploit smuggling networks to launch attacks against tankers along the northwest Africa/Canary Islands route.

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13. Weapons of Mass Destruction

A report prepared by Sandia National Laboratories found that the risk of a terrorist attacks on tankers carrying liquefied natural gas (LNG) into a US port had a low probability of occurrence but high impact if an event did occur. An attack rupturing a tanker could generate a fire that could cause major injuries and structural damage in an impact area of more than a mile.

Six kilos of highly enriched uranium in the Czech Republic was returned to Russia in a secret mission among the IAEA, Czech, Russian and US authorities.
http://www.energy.gov/engine/content.do?PUBLIC_ID=17063&BT_CODE=PR_PRESSRELEASES&TT_CODE=PRESSRELEASE

Spain and the US signed a National Nuclear Security Administration Megaports agreement to install radiation detectors.
http://www.energy.gov/engine/content.do?PUBLIC_ID=17061&BT_CODE=PR_PRESSRELEASES&TT_CODE=PRESSRELEASE

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14. Recently Published

Lesley Adkins, "Empires of the Plain" St. Martin's/Thomas Dunne

Robert Lawrence Kuhn, "The Man Who Changed China: The Life and legacy of Jiang Zemin" Crown

Nelson Mandela, "Nelson Mandela In His Own Words" Little Brown

Donald Rayfield, "Stalin and His Hangmen: Th Tyrant and Those Who Killed for Him" Random House

Linda Robinson, "Masters of Chaos: The Secret History of the Special Forces" Public Affairs

Hiner Saleem, "My Father's Rifle", Farrar, Straus and Giroux

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FEATURE ARTICLE: Papua New Guinea: Preventing Another Failed State?

Papua (as named by the explorer Don Jorge de Meneses in 1526) is the world's second largest island, located east of Indonesia and north of Australia, between the Coral Sea and the South Pacific Ocean. Together with 600 other islands, part of the Oceania group, it has some 245 different indigenous tribes. These people speak 715 different languages, many unrelated, and representing 15 percent of all the world's known languages.

This extraordinary diversity speaks to both the diverse origins of the population and to the largely inaccessible mountainous landscape. Inaccessibility, a tendency towards volcanoes, earthquakes and tidal waves, and consequent lack of infrastructure development contribute to isolation and poverty and the lack of development of a country otherwise rich in natural resources, particularly minerals and oil. It also contains the largest virgin rainforest after the Amazon.

Dutch colonists began taking control of Indonesia in 1670, eventually including the western part of the island. In 1884, Germany took the northeast area, including the adjacent island of Bougainville, and Britain took over the southern coast, putting it under Australian authority in 1902. Indonesia gained independence in 1949 and Dutch colonial rule ended in Papua in 1962. This western portion of the island was briefly under UN supervision but by 1963 Indonesia took over its administration and in 1969 formally incorporated it as the 26th province, renaming West Papua Irian Jaya. World War II decided the future of the rest of the island, with defeated Germany and Japanese occupation forces leaving and a new Territory of Papua and New Guinea placed under international trusteeship. On September 16, 1975, the constitutional monarchy of Papua New Guinea gained its independence.

Since independence Papua New Guinea (PNG) has faced many challenges. The movement in West Papua to separate from Indonesia was ruthlessly suppressed and associated with serious human rights abuses, leading thousands to flee to border areas where they have remained in refuge in remote jungle camps. Today, cross-border smuggling and trafficking present considerable problems. Domestically, PNG faced its own separatist movement with the island of Bougainville. Beginning with the declaration of a state of emergency in May 1989, the 9-year conflict left 20,000 people dead. Bougainville was given autonomy under a 2001 peace agreement.

PNG's political systems have been unstable, with seven governments since 1975 and no prime minister serving a full 5-year term. Attempted coups, troubled elections, lack of perceived legitimacy, and corruption have all been problems. The country is desperately poor, most surviving with subsistence agriculture. With public debt eating up three-quarters of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the current government attracted international support for privatization and development assistance. Privatization has adversely affected the local population that has fewer and fewer public facilities available. The inability to deliver basic services hinders development. The economy has deteriorated over the last few years.

Looking at weak government institutions, the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) has issued a clear warning that a single crisis - secessionism, a coup, an economic crisis, the impact of HIV/AIDS - could force the state into failure. Their report "Strengthening Our Neighbour" emphasizes the importance of preventing economic and social collapse for reasons ranging from altruism to regional security.

They point to PNG's key strategic position as Australia's nearest neighbor, surrounded by weak states, and acting as a buffer as shown during the World Wars of the last century. Australia's 2000 Defence White Paper incorporated PNG as being in a key position to help prevent foreign attacks against Australia. However, transnational security is a more imminent problem:

This further impinges on regional stability:

Terrorism is just one more threat associated with these significant transnational risks.

And if things do go badly, the report suggests that the government could collapse:

PNG's government disagreed with these warnings, saying that the report had sensationalized a situation that was not so desperate. Nonetheless, they are working with Australia on a cooperation plan that includes some $600 million Australian investment. This funding will help to restore law and order and provide technical assistance, particularly with finance and customs experts. Other aid donors and international bodies are also participating. ASPI's report suggests an even more aggressive approach, but if this level of focus continues as planned, the potential failures of which they warn may be alleviated.

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