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CONTENTS:

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK:

1. World
2. Africa
3. Americas
4. Asia Pacific
5. Europe
6. Middle East
7. South Asia
8. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare
9. Finance
10 Human Rights
11. Law and Legal Issues
12. Transportation
13. Weapons of Mass Destruction
14. Recently Published

FEATURE ARTICLE:
Conflict and Disaster: The Tsunami in northeast Sri Lanka and Aceh, Indonesia

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK

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1. World

The 9.0-magnitude earthquake that launched the deadly Indian Ocean tsunami altered the geography, moving some small islands as much as 20 meters and the tip of Sumatra by 36 meters. This disaster, one of the worst in modern history, has killed more than 150,000 people, with thousands missing, and millions displaced and without a livelihood. The G7 nations announced a debt moratorium and the World Bank and International Monetary Fund are undertaking a needs assessment prior to the G7 finance minister meeting scheduled for next month.

The tsunami occurred after a series of reports on the environmental risks facing small island states. Vulnerabilities include tsunamis, cyclones, pollution and discharge by ships, over-fishing, household waste, freshwater shortages, and threats to rare species. An international meeting on Small Island Developing States is taking place January 10-14.
http://www.unep.org/Documents.Multilingual/Default.asp?DocumentID=421&ArticleID=4696&l=en

In Vietnam, avian influenza has killed two children. The World Health Organization, warning of a potential human pandemic, has increased detection efforts.

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2. Africa

The East African Community Customs Union treaty creating a trading bloc among Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda, came into force on January 1.

Algerian security forces dealt a further blow to the waning power of the Armed Islamic Group (GIA) with the arrest of its head, Nourredine Boudiafi, and the death of his deputy, Chaabane Younes.

Burundi has formed a new national army, including the largest armed groups, and completed voter registration lists. Heavy fighting in Bujumbura Rural province between rival rebel FNL and CNDD-FDD forces killed some 45 combatants and displaced as many as 25,000 civilians.

Central African Republic's political and economic situation has improved ahead of February elections but human rights abuses contribute to a precarious situation. The government has asked the International Criminal Court to investigate potential war crimes in the country.

Democratic Republic of Congo's peacekeepers report continued small steps but their efforts have been soiled by findings that some of the troops abused local girls. The presence of Rwandan armed groups in the east presents a severe regional security threat and for the first time election officials warn that elections scheduled for June may be postponed.

Ivory Coast's lingering crisis presents another continuing threat to regional stability. Efforts to restore peace are stalemated and rebel ministers are refusing to disarm or to return to the government of national reconciliation until their demands have been met.

Senegal's government and the Movement of the Democratic Forces of Casamance have signed a peace agreement ending the conflict that began in 1982.

Somali leaders will reconstitute the cabinet and, with support from African Union troops, establish a plan to move the administration from Kenya to Somalia.

Sudan's government and rebels of the Sudan People's Liberation Army have signed a comprehensive peace agreement ending more than twenty years of civil war. Terms include a unified army, autonomy in the south for six years followed by a secession referendum, equal shares of oil revenue, and divisions for government administration and legal frameworks. This agreement does not affect the crisis in Darfur, where increased fighting has forced suspension of food aid and again increased the size of the displaced population.
http://www.un.org/apps/news/infocusRel.asp?infocusID=88&Body=Sudan&Body1=

Uganda announced a truce with the Lords Resistance Army (LRA) and will begin formal negotiations to end the conflict.

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3. Americas

In Buenos Aires, Argentina, 188 people died in a fire at a nightclub during New Year's Eve celebrations. Since the disaster, thousands of protestors have taken to the streets to call for the mayor's resignation. The government is being held responsible for poor safety standards that led to the high fatality rate. The club owner has been arrested and two government officials have resigned, but the mayor is refusing to step down.

Colombian rebels of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) attacked a New Year's Eve party and opened fire on the villagers who were believed to be cooperating with right-wing paramilitaries. Seventeen peasants, including four children and six women, were killed.

In Peru a group of some 150 heavily armed ultra-nationalist army reservists in the town of Andahuaylas took over a police station. They killed four police and held ten hostage. One rebel was also killed. President Toledo placed a 30-day state of emergency on the region and sent in federal troops. After a 4-day siege, the rebels surrendered. Major Antauro Humala, the ringleader opposed to foreign interests in Peru, faces charges of kidnapping and murder.

In the US, Lt. Gen. James Helmly, commander of the US army reserve, says it is rapidly degenerating into a broken force unable to fulfil its missions in Iraq and Afghanistan.
http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/nationworld/iraq/bal-te.reserves05jan05,1,551065.story
http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/nationworld/iraq/bal-reservememo0105,1,3869235.acrobat
http://www.army.mil/USAR/home/index.php

The US Department of Homeland Security has published the National Response Plan to "bring unity in our response to disasters and terrorist threats and attacks".
http://www.dhs.gov/dhspublic/interapp/press_release/press_release_0582.xml http://www.dhs.gov/dhspublic/interapp/press_release/press_release_0581.xml http://www.dhs.gov/dhspublic/interapp/editorial/editorial_0566.xml
They also released a year end review:
http://www.dhs.gov/dhspublic/display?content=4257

The Federal Bureau of Investigation announced the appointment of a new counterterrorism director, the sixth since the September 11 attacks.
http://www.fbi.gov/pressrel/pressrel04/12-28-043appointmentspr.htm

Venezuelan authorities have begun to identify nonproductive/idle farms that can be taxed or seized. Some 60 percent of farmland is owned by less than one percent of the population and land reform is a major objective of the Chavez government. Although 40,000 farms have not yet been inspected, some 56 large estates and 500 farms have been identified as idle and one British-owned cattle farm has been identified for expropriation. The owners, Vestey, say squatters have prevented them from being fully productive.

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4. Asia Pacific

Australia and Indonesia have further strengthened their economic ties (note Feature Article, below) and their efforts to cooperate in counter terrorism efforts.

China's population officially passed 1.3 billion on January 6.

Philippine police arrested 16 suspected militants and three bombs on January 7, preventing a suicide attack planned against a Catholic festival, the Feast of the Black Nazarene.

Thailand has deployed some 10,000 troops to the southern Muslim-dominated provinces that were the scene of significant separatist violence before being badly hit by the tsunami. The intention is to use these forces, in addition to military involvement in the aid effort, to prevent further separatist violence.

Uzbekistan's December elections were deemed not pluralistic, competitive or transparent since although minor improvements had been made, any opposition was effectively eliminated.

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5. Europe

Croatia's incumbent president Stipe Mesic fell just short of the simple majority required for an outright electoral victory. The run-off against Jadranka Kosor will be held January 16.

Italy's Mafia war has spread. In 2004, 134 people, many simple passers-by, were killed. This week, a fifth Mafia boss, Edoardo Bove of the Camorra clan was killed. President Ciampi warned of a crisis in the south and said that the cancer of Mafia crime must be removed.

Serbian Minister of justice Stojkovic has ruled out arresting four Serb generals wanted by the UN war crimes tribunal, fearing that their arrest or forced extradition could undermine Serbia's fragile stability.

The Spanish government reports that Basque separatist group ETA/s attacks have cost the economy nearly eight billion euros over the last ten years, not including indirect losses such as reduced investment. The interior minister also reported that 266 Basque or Islamic terrorists were arrested last year. The Basque parliament approved a plan to negotiate independence. Prime Minister Zapatero has rejected the proposal. Catalan separatists increased pressure to negotiate by threatening to withdraw support for the government coalition.

Ukraine's presidential election has been resolved as legal channels to challenge the election victory of Viktor Yushchenko ended and Prime Minister Yanukovich resigned from his post, thereby ending the 2-month crisis that followed a the initial fraudulent vote.

Across the UK, the Freedom of Information Act came into force, opening public access to documents held by more than 100,000 public bodies.

In Northern Ireland, Johnny "Mad Dog" Adair of the Ulster Defence Association, is due to be released from prison this month. He had participated in a loyalist feud that threatened his family, who fled to England. Local authorities in both Northern Ireland and greater Manchester have warned that criminal behavior would not be tolerated and warn against new outbreaks of violence.

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6. Middle East

Palestinians are voting to choose a presidential successor to Yasser Arafat. Facing heavy turnout and problems with registration lists, particularly in Jerusalem, voting hours have been extended.

Incursions into Gaza continue. The last three days of December 12 Palestinians were killed during an incursion into the Khan Younis refugee camp. The dead include two 17-year-old civilians, five members of Hamas, one of al Aqsa Martyr's Brigades, and at least three other suspected militants. The New Year started with a 10-year-old girl was killed when a Palestinian rocket exploded in her Jabalya refugee camp home. On January 4, tank shells directed at a strawberry field near rocket launchers killed seven including five children under 16, and injured 11. A Hamas militant was killed on the 6th after infiltrating a settlement.

Last year's earthquake in Bam, Iran is the topic of a special report from IRIN:
http://www.irinnews.org/S_report.asp?ReportID=44905

The Iraqi interim government extended a state of emergency for another 30 days and instituted plans for a strict security lockdown to control insurgent violence ahead of elections. Among the attacks was the assassination on January 4 of the governor of Baghdad. US Brigadier General Rodriguez said that troops were encountering fewer bombs but they contain much greater explosive power. Retired senior General Gary Luck has been sent to Iraq to conduct a broad review of US policy on Iraq. US casualties stand at more than 1,350, and more than 10,000 have been injured. The force is also strained by manpower constraints, including extended tours of reserve and National Guard unites that make up 40 percent of the force.

In Lebanon, Israelis fired on suspected Hezbollah positions, killing a French officer and injuring a second UN official. The attacks, near the disputed Shebaa Farms area, were in response to shelling that killed an Israeli officer and injured three soldiers.

Saudi Arabian security forces launched a raid on December 28, killing one suspected militant and a civilian. The next day, two suicide car bombs were set off outside the interior ministry and a guard training center in Riyadh, killing ten and injuring 17 in addition to the five suicide bombers. Abdullah Saud al-Sebaie was one of the suicide attackers and on the list of most wanted al Qaeda militants.

In the West Bank, Israeli troops pulled back for 72-hours to allow access to the Palestinian presidential vote.

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7. South Asia

Afghanistan is proceeding with disarmament, demobilization and reintegration efforts directed towards tens of thousands militiamen and an estimated 100,000 metric tons of ammunition. Sporadic clashes, often directed against aid workers, continue. The World Bank research paper "Drugs and Development in Afghanistan" looks at connections between drugs and development and " argues that the impact of the opium economy on security and governance constitutes a central development problem for the country.
http://lnweb18.worldbank.org/ESSD/sdvext.nsf/67ByDocName/DrugsandDevelopmentinAfghanistan/$FILE/WP18_Web.pdf

India and Pakistan held talks at the end of December, making no progress but planning further discussions.

As a weeklong blockade in Kathmandu eased, Nepalis rallied in the thousands to demand peace talks between the government and Maoist rebels. Fighting during the blockade killed at least 34. Nepal set January 13 as a deadline but the rebels insist they will speak only with the King.

In Pakistan, opposition politician Manzoor Hussain Shah, his driver and two bodyguards were shot dead in an ambush, possibly politically motivated, on January 3. On the 8th, ten people were killed in Shia/Sunni sectarian violence in Gilgit.

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8. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare

New mobile phone viruses have emerged. The new Cabir stain uses short-range radio to jump to vulnerable phones, allowing faster spread. The virus only affects high-end phones with the Symbian Series 60 operating system. Source code for this worm has been published online.

Microsoft will begin offering free anti-virus and anti-spyware software.

The US Justice Department's Inspector General reports that integration of fingerprint systems is bogged down amid bureaucratic squabbling that "creates a risk that a terrorist could enter the country undetected".
http://www.usdoj.gov/oig/inspection/plus/0501/final.pdf

From January 1, European retailers who have not yet upgraded to chip and pin cards will be held liable for fraudulent transactions.
http://www.apacs.org.uk/

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9. Finance

Northern Ireland Chief Constable Hugh Orde said that he believed the Irish Republican Army (IRA) is behind the GBP26 million Northern Bank robbery. The IRA and its political wing, Sinn Fein, continue to deny any connection. These claims are likely to have an adverse impact on negotiations to restore devolution.

British Metropolitan Police anti-terrorism investigators have completed their largest seizure of cash believed meant for terrorist financing. They confiscated the money from Abdurahman Alamoudi, a US Muslim activist, at Heathrow airport in August 2003 under the Proceeds of Crime Act. At the time his connections to front organizations linked to terrorism were unknown. US authorities arrested Alamoudi in September 2003 and he was jailed for terrorist financing in October 2004.

Four Australian high school students have been charged with acting as mules for organized crime figures in Russia and Malaysia to set up a global phishing scheme that targeted internet banking details and used the student network, including children as young as 15, to help launder funds.

The Israeli parliament approved a new law prohibiting funding for families of terrorists. Anyone who funds terrorists or their family members is considered a terrorist financier and could face a possible sentence of 7-10 years prison.

India's national Institute of Bank Management warns of the high risk of computer fraud among Indian banks that lack adequate checks and balances.

Accounts of the Friends of Al-Aqsa and Palestine Solidarity Campaign (charities who help Palestinians) were closed by the Royal Bank of Scotland and the Alliance and Leicester respectively. Neither group is listed on the Bank of England's sanctions list.

New York Attorney General Elliott Spitzer has launched an investigation into unusual money transfers by the World Jewish Congress that is responsible for billions of dollars of holocaust restitution monies.

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10. Human Rights

The US Department of Justice widened its definition of torture to include lasting mental anguish as well as physical suffering that falls short of excruciating and agonizing pain.
http://www.usdoj.gov/olc/dagmemo.pdf

Dr. Gregg Bloche and Jonathan Marks write of "When Doctors Go to War" in the January 6 issue of the New England Journal of Medicine. They describe the "troublesome picture revealed by their inquiry into medical involvement in military intelligence gathering in and Guantanamo Bay. They describe the tensions for physicians between Hippocratic and national service commitments".
http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/short/352/1/3

Reporters without Borders reports that at least 53 journalists were killed in the line of duty last year, the highest number since 1994.
http://www.rsf.org/article.php3?id_article=12233

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11. Law and Legal Issues

Nigerian admirals Babatunde Kolawole and Francis Agbiti were dismissed from their positions after being found guilty of conspiracy, altering documents, and other charges connected with the disappearance of an oil tanker while it was transferred from naval to civilian police custody in connection with the theft of 11,000 tons of crude oil.

Djamel Beghal, a French-Algerian national arrested in Dubai in 2001, and five colleagues have gone on trial in France on charges of planning the bombing of the US embassy in Paris.

Nourredine Boudiafi, head of the Armed Islamic Group (GIA), was arrested in Algeria.

Olmedo Gil Carmona, Elias Cobos Munoz and Florentino Riviera Farfan, suspected drug traffickers, will be extradited to the US.

Ciaran Fearaigh, a member of the Irish Republican Army, was deported from the US following the decision of an appeals court.

Dagoberto Florez Rios ("Chuma") of the Norte del Valle drug cartel was arrested in Colombia. He is a wanted fugitive in the US, with a $5m reward for information.
http://www.ice.gov/graphics/news/newsreleases/articles/colombian122804.htm

Edgar Ray Killen, reputed Ku Klux Klan member, has been charged with the notorious 1964 murders of three civil rights workers in Mississippi, US. He has pleaded not guilty to all three charges.

Hambali, a key member of Jemaah Islamiah and connected with the Bali bombing, and three others have been convicted in Cambodian court of planning embassy bombings in Phnom Penh. Hambali, held in US custody at an undisclosed location, was convicted in absentia. A fifth suspect was acquitted.

Ahmad Shlash Hassan and Ezzo Hussein al-Hussein were convicted of involvement in a bomb attack and gunfight in Damascus, Syria, that killed four people. They were sentenced to hang, with no right of appeal. 18 other defendants were sentenced to prison terms ranging from one to twenty years.

District judge Naqibullah has been arrested in Afghanistan for allegedly sheltering two suspects linked to an August 2003 car bomb attack and an October suicide bombing.

Kelbessa Negewo, connected with torture and murder during Ethiopian dictator Mengistu Haile Mariam's 17-year "Red Terror" campaign, was arrested in the US where he faces deportation proceedings. In 2002 an Ethiopian court had sentenced him in absentia to life in prison.

Ricardo Palmera, ("Simon Trinidad"), a leader of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) was extradited to Colombia from Ecuador last year and has now been extradited to the US on drug trafficking and kidnapping charges.

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12. Transportation

In the aftermath of the Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami, the piracy risk was reduced but there are warnings that amid the widespread devastation and disruption future attacks could increase, particularly in the high danger areas around Aceh and the Malacca Straits. In particular, the UN is concerned that relief boats could be attacked.

Note "Terrorism Goes to Sea" in Foreign Affairs, Nov/Dec 2004
http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20041101faessay83606/gal-luft-anne-korin/terrorism-goes-to-sea.html

The port of Marseilles has become the 34th operational Container Security Initiative port.
http://www.cbp.gov/xp/cgov/newsroom/press_releases/01072005_2.xml

A freight train carrying chlorine gas struck a parked train on January 6, leading to a chlorine leak that required evacuation around a mile of the crash site. At least eight people died and 200 made ill.

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13. Weapons of Mass Destruction

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) found evidence that Egypt had secret nuclear programs connected with possible weapons, primarily in the 1980s and 1990s but possible as recently as 2003. They are awaiting the results of soil samples.

Iran has agreed to allow IAEA to inspect its secret military site at Parchin.

The Washington Post's Dafna Linzer reviewed nuclear and radiological threats on December 29. "Nuclear Capabilities May Elude Terrorists, Experts Say" begins:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A32285-2004Dec28.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A32310-2004Dec28.html

Avian influenza has been reported in 11 provinces in Vietnam. Two children have died of the disease and a third is critically ill. Close contacts are being monitored and detection efforts stepped up. At least 22,000 birds have been culled, but the risk is expected to remain high around holidays where there is increased poultry consumption.
http://www.who.int/csr/don/2005_01_06a/en/

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14. Recently Published

Fred Anderson and Andrew Cayton, "The Dominion of War" Viking

Victor Cherkashin, "Spy Handler" Basic Books

Jared Diamond, "Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed" Viking

Peter Fenton "Eyeing the Flash: The Education of a Carnival Con Artist" Simon and Schuster

Dan Gillmor, "We the Media: Grassroots journalism by the people, for the people" O'Reilly Books

Gilles Kepel, "The War for Muslim Minds: Islam and the West" Belknap/Harvard

Charles March, "The Beloved Community: How Faith Shapes Social Justice, from the Civil Rights Movements to Today" Basic Books

Richard Posner, "Catastrophe: Risk and Response" Oxford University Press

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FEATURE ARTICLE: Conflict and Disaster: The Tsunami in northeast Sri Lanka and Aceh, Indonesia

US Secretary of State Colin Powell was explicit about the connection between national security and assistance following the December 26 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami:

Australian officials share the belief in these connections, and have made regional investment a priority to ensure stability and prevent failed states - a particular concern given the precarious situation in the small island states that make up many of Australia's regional neighbors. Its largest commitment now is for $1 billion over five years for the Australia-Indonesia Partnership for Reconstruction and Development, in addition to previously committed development funds.

The scale of the disaster may prove to be a boon in pushing such efforts forward and, unlike previous disasters in which promised aid did not materialize, force the long-term commitment that is required. However, this effort is further complicated by the long-running conflicts that have beset two of the worst hit areas: northeastern Sri Lanka under the control of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE, Tigers) and the Aceh province of Indonesia, home to the Free Aceh Movement (Gerakin Aceh Merdeka, GAM).

Both of these fierce insurgencies are rooted in centuries of history. The Sinhalese left northern India to settle in Sri Lanka late in the 6th century BC and developed the great Buddhist kingdom of Anuradhapura. In the 14th century southern Indians seized the north and established a Tamil kingdom. A colony under Portuguese, Dutch and finally British control, the country known as Ceylon became independent in 1948 and changed its name. One of the colonial legacies was the political and economic power given the minority Tamils at the expense of the majority Sinhalese.

As in so many other cases measures to address this disparity led to communal tensions that erupted into war in 1983. During the next two decades, tens of thousands died, including the first suicide bombing attacks. Some 200,000 Tamil civilians fled the island and more than 100,000 were internally displaced or became refugees in southern India. (The tsunami had dramatically increased the numbers of internally displaced persons.) In February 2002 a ceasefire was agreed, but the peace negotiations were fraught with tension and broke down at the end of last year, in conjunction with a power struggle between Sri Lanka's President and the Prime Minister as well as the emergence of a rival Tiger faction.

Indonesia is the world's largest archipelago, with thousands of islands, hundreds of languages, and dozens of ethnic groups. The Dutch colonized Indonesia by gradually consolidating their hold over the local kingdoms during the 17th and 18th centuries. Indonesia declared independence after World War II and the end of Japanese occupation. In 1965 General Suharto came to power following an abortive coup and imposed authoritarian rule led by a military that was involved in even local village government. His corrupt rule, human rights abuses and resettlement programs fanned ethnic conflict.

Aceh province is located in the northern tip of Sumatra, across the Malacca Straits from Malaysia. Indonesia is a majority Muslim country, but the people of Aceh are known for strong expression of Islam. Their support for the Darul Islam rebellion of the 1950s gave them special region status that allowed greater use of Islamic law and custom. The region, with rich mineral deposits and agriculture, was successful economically but much of the wealth flowed away from residents. Control over wealth is another well-known motivation for separatist movements, and economic dissent combined with social and political pressure gave a foundation to the Free Aceh Movement, founded in 1976. In 1991, separatist activities increased and the government responded by placing it under military control, conducting operations using the brutal methods for which the Indonesian military is known, and attempting to crush the movement entirely.

The army was pulled out after a change of government in 1999 but low level attacks, primarily directed against security services but also against civilians, continued in parallel with peace talks. In July 2002 Indonesia sent the troops back in, announcing that nearly three decades of separatist fighting that had killed more than 10,000 people, mostly civilians, would be ended within a month. Instead, the region has been under martial law or civil emergency ever since and some 7,000 suspected rebels have been killed or captured.

The west coast of Sumatra and the Aceh region were the closest to the epicenter of the earthquake and devastated by the tsunami that followed thereafter, killing more a hundred thousand people and wiping out the entire infrastructure: no water, no food, no shelter. Sri Lanka's eastern and southern coastlines have been devastated and more than 30,000 have died, with much of the infrastructure destroyed.

Aid did not begin to reach these areas until several days after the disaster. The Tigers conducted their own relief efforts and appealed independently for international assistance. Tamils in government said that the government was uninterested in their plight and that intended aid was not reaching the north. When aid has been delivered by troops, tensions have been exacerbated and Tigers warn against any prolonged troop presence.

Further exacerbating the situation was the travel ban placed by the government against UN Secretary General Annan travelling to rebel areas -- perhaps because his visit could have confirmed rebel claims of aid being withheld.

In Aceh, a ceasefire was declared and the government has removed restrictions against aid groups, who now are permitted access to the region. In addition to coping with enormous logistical challenges, there have been several clashes between rebels and soldiers. The rebels, reporting casualties, believe that the military is using the disaster as a pretext for counter-insurgent operations.

Sri Lanka and Indonesia are at opposite corners of the Indian Ocean, but the tsunami disaster has presented similar issues for the governments and separatist movements in both. Government relief work may provide an opportunity to improve the political situation and aid moves towards peace - or make it much worse. One of the key determinants will be whether a history of corruption associated with aid can be overcome and provide genuine relief to the affected populations. Time will tell, and events will be reported in this Newsletter.

A story from another disaster lets us end on a positive note. Last September, Chechen rebels took over a school in Beslan, Russia, holding more than a thousand people hostage. In the bloody ending of the siege at least 330 people, mostly children, were killed. The town has now donated a million rubles (around $36,000) from their own recovery fund to tsunami aid.

Further Reading:

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