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AUTHOR:
TerrorismCentral Editorial Staff

TITLE:
TerrorismCentral Newsletter - January 30, 2005

SOURCE:
TerrorismCentral, January 30, 2005

TEXT:

While waiting for the results of the historic election taking place in Iraq, News Highlights summarize other important events around the globe in the past week, ranging from the one month anniversary of the Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami to commemorations surrounding the fortieth anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz. This week's Feature Article reviews "Nuclear Proliferation in Pakistan".


CONTENTS:

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK:

1. World
2. Africa
3. Americas
4. Asia Pacific
5. Europe
6. Middle East
7. South Asia
8. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare
9. Finance
10 Human Rights
11. Law and Legal Issues
12. Transportation
13. Weapons of Mass Destruction
14. Recently Published

FEATURE ARTICLE:
Nuclear Proliferation in Pakistan

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK


1. World

It has been one month since the Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami struck. The death toll now exceeds 283,000. The numbers of those injured, displaced, and who have lost their livelihood greatly exceed this. Demonstrating notable development progress, India refused international aid and Indonesia has turned down an offered debt moratorium. To aid recovery, countries across the region have urged governments to refrain from issuing travel warnings and instead to encourage tourism. International conferences since the disaster agree that measures to reduce the impact of natural disasters are necessary. To get our background paper on disaster reduction, send email to . Also note a Guardian special feature "24 hours, 40 stories" in which they asked survivors, relatives and volunteers in twelve countries how they spent the 1-month anniversary.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/tsunami/interviews/0,15727,1397402,00.html

The World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland made progress on reaching consensus regarding global issues of climate change and poverty, and outlined ambitious targets for the future. http://www.weforum.org/ In Porto Alegre, Brazil, the World Social Forum called for meeting the millennium development goals and for poor countries to work together to increase their collective power.
http://www.forumsocialmundial.org.br/index.php?cd_language=2&id_menu=

The UN Security Council's Counter-Terrorism Committee held its fourth special meeting in Kazakhstan. The location was chosen because the cross-border impact of terrorism is a serious regional issue. Topics covered included financing terrorist groups, arms proliferation, and drug trafficking. They reviewed ways to increase national and international cooperation.


2. Africa

Burundi will hold a constitutional referendum in February. International mediators warned transitional President Ndayizeye against amending the draft constitution, including a suggestion that would allow him to run for election.

In northeastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) there has been further fighting between rival militias of the Union of Congolese Patriots (UPC-L) and Nationalist and Integrationist Front (FNI). In one attack, attributed to Lendu FNI, burned down a village, killing as many as eighty and forcing more than 1500 residents to flee. The UN mission in DRC is taking further measures to enforce an arms embargo and thereby deter the violence.

Guinean security forces have arrested at least a hundred people in connection with the apparent assassination attempt against President Conte last week. The local Organization of Human Rights has expressed concern over conditions of detention and is concerned that the alleged assassination was staged to allow a crackdown against the opposition.

Ivory Coast has been given permission to repair aircraft damaged last November but their use will be strictly monitored to ensure meeting the terms of the arms embargo. Rebels in the north have blockaded cotton shipments to the government-held south. The Washington Post reports that a UN commission of inquiry has found war crimes committed by both sides, including a death squad directed by first lady Simone Gbagbo.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A45644-2005Jan28.html

Kenyan Maasai herdsman and Kikuyu farmers clashed over use of water, killing at least fifteen.

In Darfur, Sudan deadly clashes continue, with armed tribesmen attacking villages and government forces launching air attacks. More than a hundred civilians were killed and thousands more displaced. A UN investigation into whether genocide has been committed has not yet been made public, but a Sudanese government report finds limited human rights abuse, but no ethnic cleansing, systematic abuse of women, or genocide.


3. Americas

Bolivia's rebellious Santa Cruz region has been the scene of intense protests over fuel price increases and the desire for autonomy. Government negotiators have now agreed to direct election of regional governors and a local agreement to set up a provincial assembly, not secession. Santa Cruz produces a third of the Bolivia's economic output and was particularly hard hit by the price increases. Regional inequalities are an issue throughout South America.

Colombian rebels of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) attacked a prison, allowing 20 inmates to escape, including several FARC members.

Colombia and Venezuela have resolved a 2-week dispute over Colombia's capture of a rebel commander inside Venezuela. Colombia has said the incident will not be repeated and both governments have agreed to meet to review cooperation to combat terrorism and drug trafficking.

Mexico objected to a US warning about violence at the border and the suggestion that it could affect trade and tourism. Officials have now issued a joint statement indicating that Mexico has acted against the drug gangs that are responsible for most border violence.
http://travel.state.gov/travel/cis_pa_tw/pa/pa_2100.html
http://www.usembassy-mexico.gov/releases/ep050126border.html

The US Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs held hearings on the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) in which they heard unified testimony of the lack of organization and an environment of competition rather than cooperation within DHS agencies. DHS is categorized at "high risk" for fraud, waste and mismanagement in a new Government Accountability Office study.
http://hsgac.senate.gov/index.cfm?Fuseaction=Hearings.Detail&HearingID=210
http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-05-207

DHS and Habitat for Humanity International have released a new emergency preparedness guide for homeowners.
http://www.dhs.gov/dhspublic/interapp/press_release/press_release_0605.xml

There have been further reports of detainee abuse, including 23 attempted suicides in a mass protest at Guantanamo Bay and documents on torture obtained by the American Civil Liberties Union under the Freedom of Information Act.
http://www.aclu.org/International/International.cfm?ID=13962&c=36

Despite recent congressional measures to better manage and coordinate intelligence, reports last week revealed that the Pentagon created new clandestine teams - the Strategic Support Branch within the Defense Intelligence Agency. The Federal Bureau of Investigation has also expanded intelligence-gathering, including operations on foreign individuals and governments.

Last week's dirty bomb terror threat against Boston was fabricated. The tip was made up for revenge over a disputed smuggling transaction. DHS Secretary Ridge said that the unsubstantiated threat should not have been made public and reflects a breakdown in intelligence sharing.


4. Asia Pacific

Australian Mamdouh Habib was released from 3-years of detention without trial at the US prison camp in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, where he was allegedly tortured. He flew home and was allowed to rejoin his family. Foreign Minister Downer said charges are unlikely but that his activities would be watched. Fellow Australian David Hicks is still held in Guantanamo Bay.

Burma's foreign minister denied rumors that a coup had taken place but suggested there may be changes in the cabinet.

China's purged Communist Party leader Shao Ziyang was buried on Saturday. The small funeral took place under high security.

China and Taiwan have begun direct flights between the two countries for the first time in more than fifty years.

Indonesia has sent a senior delegation to Finland for peace talks with exiled leaders of the Free Aceh Movement (GAM). Violence between separatists and the military has continued despite a ceasefire.

Philippine military authorities report that an air raid against targets in the southern island of Mindanao killed up to Abu Sayyaf and Jemaah Islamiah militants. They report that Bali bomb-maker Dulmatin was among the dead.

Singapore has announced new plans to improve security of computers and buildings.
http://www2.mha.gov.sg/mha/detailed.jsp?artid=1385&type=4&root=0&parent=0&cat=0


5. Europe

The European Commission has agreed to give police access to criminal records from all 25 European Union countries in an effort to better combat organized crime. The proposal must be approved by member states.

French police have arrested eleven people accused of belonging to an Islamist cell planning attacks in Iraq, including suicide bombings.

Georgian President Saakashvili has proposed constitutional guarantees to provide autonomy to the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and later Abkhazia.

Irish Prime Minister Ahern and British Prime Minister Blair both warned there would be no political progress win Northern Ireland until the Irish Republican Army (IRA) ends all criminal activity. The IRA has been accused of carrying out the Northern Bank robbery and of managing punishment attacks. The IRA political wing, Sinn Fein, denies these charges.

Italian police in Sicily have arrested 46 people suspected of aiding Mafia boss Bernardo ("The Tractor") Provenzano who has been a fugitive for more than 40 years, and other charges. A top aid to Provenzano, Francesco Pastoia, was arrested during the raid and subsequently found hanged in his cell.

In Milan, Judge Clementina Forleo dropped international terrorism charges against five North African defendants. The men were accused of soliciting suicide bombers for Iraq. Forleo ruled they were guerillas, not terrorists. Three of the men were sentenced to prison terms of up to three years for fraudulent identity papers and other lesser crimes. Two others were remanded to another court for a related prosecution.

Russian police surrounded an apartment block in the North Caucasus and after a 2-day standoff, stormed the building, killing seven suspected Islamic extremists, including two women. The parliamentary commissions investigating the Beslan school siege, accused high-ranking military officials of aiding the gunmen in exchange for a bribe and said that they are still serving.

Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Yushchenko met and promised to cooperate. Yushchenko says he will make irreversible democratic reforms to prepare Ukraine for eventual EU membership.

Spain's Basque separatist group ETA claimed responsibility for bombing a hotel in southeast Spain that injured two people. The hotel had been evacuated after a warning call.

In the UK, four men detained without charge for more than three years at the US prison camp in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, were returned home, where they were briefly questioned then released. Martin Mubanga, Geroz Abbasi, Richard Belmar, and Moazzam Begg claim they were tortured during their detention. The British Home Secretary announced that although he has acceded to the Law Lords ban on detention without trial, he plans executive control orders against both British and foreign nationals that would permit house arrest and other controls of movements of both suspects and their families.


6. Middle East

A tenuous ceasefire is in place among the various Palestinian groups. Israel has agreed to limit offensive operations in the Gaza Strip and West Bank. Israeli forces killed four Palestinians last week, including a 3-year-old girl, a 25-year old learning-disabled man, a Hamas activist and a member of the Al Aqsa Martyr's brigades.

Local polls in Gaza gave Hamas a huge victory, winning about two-thirds of the seats it contested.

Iraq's first multiparty elections in 50 years have been declared a success. There were high turnouts in the Shia Muslim south and Kurdish north but many Sunni-dominated cities in central Iraq were closed or deserted. Massive security measures did not prevent a spate of attacks. It will be some time before results are known.

Israel's Defense Minister refused to rule out a preemptive strike against Iran following reports from the Mossad intelligence service that Iran is on the brink of enriching uranium and would have a nuclear bomb within three years. Iran insists that its nuclear program is intended only for peaceful use.

In Kuwait a shootout between police and militants killed one officer and three suspected militants. There have been warnings of possible attacks against foreign interests.

Oman has arrested up to 300 suspected extremists across the country and seized arms reports suggest could have been targeted against Eid al-Adha festivities

In the West Bank, Israel has annexed large tracts of land in Jerusalem that are owned by Palestinians in the West Bank but have been cut off by construction of the West Bank barrier. Construction on the controversial section of the barrier deep inside the West Bank near Ariel settlement has resumed.


7. South Asia

Afghanistan has named an independent electoral commission to oversee national assembly elections scheduled for April. The human rights commission issued a report that finds 69 percent of Afghans were victims of crimes against humanity. The UN will assist in identifying ways to address these crimes.

Bangladeshi police are questioning 64 people accused of belonging to the banned militant Islamic group the Jagrata Muslim Janata that is blamed for clashes with security forces earlier in the week. Another grenade attack, directed against the opposition Awami League party, killed five people including former Finance Minister Shah AMS Kibria. Riots following the attack led to 40 injuries and 40 arrests and a 3-day general strike.

In the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh senior opposition party leader Paritala Ravi and a colleague were killed in a bomb attack. Protestors with Ravi's party, the Telugu Desam Party, called a strike to protest the killing. The area was closed down and there were a number of violent incidents, including arson against some 400 buses.

Suspected separatists in Assam state exploded five bombs on Republic Day. Two people were killed by the bombings and eight died when Indian troops fired to disperse an angry mob.

Darjeeling Gorkha Hill Council has asked for more autonomy to help control terrorist organizations using Darjeeling as a base.

In Maharashtra state up to 300 pilgrims died in a stampede and fire at a temple; an investigation into the cause of the fire is underway.

Pakistani government officials have held talks with nationalist politicians in Balochistan to end more than two weeks of violent confrontation with armed tribesmen. In raids at the end of the week 17 Afghans linked to Taliban or al Qaeda were arrested.

Sri Lanka's Tamil Tigers have rejected accusations they are still recruiting child soldiers, and have said that the need for tsunami reconstruction takes precedence over peace talks.


8. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare

The Anti-Phishing Working Group reports 85 percent of reported incidents targeted financial services. The December report also says that there were 1,707 active sites, a growth rate of 24 percent.
http://www.antiphishing.org

The US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) released "Security Considerations for Voice Over IP Systems". The report finds that VOIP has a very different architecture than circuit-switched telephone. Administrators may assume that since digitized voice travels in packets, they can simply plug VOIP components into their already-secured networks and remain secure. However, common security measures such as firewalls and encryption, can cause poor voice quality and blocked calls. Designing, deploying and securely operating a VOIP network is complex and requires careful preparation.
http://csrc.nist.gov/publications/nistpubs/800-58/SP800-58-final.pdf

NIST, working with the National Security Agency (NSA) developed a common XML-based language for write security checklists and related documents. XCCDF is an XML-based format that offers a flexible, vendor-neutral solution for checklist applications such as benchmarking, security testing and configuration checking.
http://csrc.nist.gov/checklists/xccdf.html

Document security company Workshare warns of the security risk of hidden information contained in Microsoft Word files.
http://www.workshare.com/products/pr_metadata_overview.htm

The sale of IBM's personal computer division to the Chinese company Lenovo will be delayed pending a review of national security concerns requested by Congress.

The US National Regulatory Commission (NRC) issued a request for public comment on updates to "Criteria for Use of Computers in Safety Systems of Nuclear Power Plants".
http://ruleforum.llnl.gov/cgi-bin/downloader/rg_lib/123-0184.pdf


9. Finance

Riggs Bank has pleaded guilty to a criminal count of failing to file timely and/or accurate Suspicious Activity Reports under the Bank Secrecy Act and implementing regulations. The charge is connected with the discontinued embassy banking and international private banking businesses. Under the agreement, the bank will pay a $16 million fine to federal authorities and be subject to a 5-year corporate probation period. If the proposed merger with PNC or a similar change of control takes place, the probation would terminate immediately. This agreement is subject to approval by a district judge, scheduled for March 29.

Banco de Chile dismissed the manager of its New York branch after US bank regulators cited reporting violations connected to former dictator Pinochet accounts that have been linked to money laundering.

The US Treasury designated Sulayman Khalid Darwish as a financier of terrorism for his alleged role in funding attacks in Iraq. Located in Syria, Darwish is accused of providing financial and material support to the al-Zarqawi Network and al Qaida.
http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/js2206.htm

Lloyds has revised its terrorism clauses to allow payment when governments sponsor attacks, but maintains its war exclusion.

Irish police intelligence insists that the Irish Republican Army (IRA) was responsible for the December 20 Northern Bank robbery in Belfast. The IRA and its political wing Sinn Fein deny involvement.


10. Human Rights

World leaders gathered to mark the liberation of the Auschwitz concentration camp. Known as the worst of the Nazi camps, it had the capacity to kill 6,000 people each day in their gas chambers. An estimated four million people from the Belgium, Czechoslovakia, France, Greece, Holland, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Soviet Union and Yugoslavia died in Auschwitz between 1941 and the liberation on January 27, 1945. Camp survivors and international leaders gathered in moving ceremonies and promised that the world will never again turn its back on such atrocities.

Reporters Without Borders has criticized Algeria, Canada, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia and the US for persistent harassment of Arabic station al-Jazeera.
http://www.rsf.org

The International Confederation of Free Trade Unions (ICFTU) released "Doing Business with Burma". The new report concentrates on investment in and trade with Burma and shows how foreign business relationships with Burma - by large and small companies - generate vast profits for the country’s military dictators. The ICFTU released an updated version of its Burma company database containing some 440 multinational companies. Burma is the only country in the world for which the international trade union movement calls for disinvestment.
http://www.icftu.org/displaydocument.asp?Index=991221183&Language=EN


11. Law and Legal Issues

Abdul Rahman Ahmad (a/k/a "Chae Kumae Kuteh", "Deraman Koteh", "Doramae Kuteh", "Jae Ku Mae Ku Tae") was arrested in Malaysia. He is suspected of masterminding attacks in southern Thailand. There is no extradition treaty between Malaysia and Thailand and there has been a diplomatic spat following Thailand's suggestion of extradition first through the media rather than using diplomatic channels. Malaysia is holding the suspect, who has papers indicating he is a Malaysian citizen, under the Internal Security Act, which allows for indefinite detention without trial.

Freddy Castro, head of the canine unit at Bogota international airport, was arrested on suspicion of tipping off smugglers to times when the drug-sniffing dogs took breaks.

Former Chilean secret police chief General Manuel Contreras has been sentenced to 12 years in prison over the 1975 disappearance of Miguel Angel Sandoval, a member of the Movement of the Revolutionary Left.

Ahmed Khalfan Ghailani, a wanted al Qaeda militant, has been transferred from Pakistan to US control.

Irv Gotti, an executive with the Murder Inc hip-hop music label, has been indicted on money laundering and drugs charges. He pleaded not guilty and was released on $1 million bail.

Serbian army general Vladimir Lazarevic surrendered to authorities and will travel to the UN war crimes tribunal to face charges connected with activities in Kosovo in 1999.

Colm Murphy, the only person tried in connection with the 1998 Omagh bombing, has been freed on bail after winning an appeal.

Mohammed Rafik, suspected of involvement in the 1`003 Casablanca bombings, remains in Italy after the high court decided he couldn't be extradited to Morocco.

Abu Salem, wanted in connection with the 1993 Bombay bomb attacks, has lost an appeal to the Portuguese Supreme Court and will be extradited to India.

Frans van Anraat, arrested for allegedly supplying the material used in the 1988 Halabja chemical attack in Iraq, has been released under a technical order by an appeals judge.


12. Transportation

"Protecting Commercial Aviation Against the Shoulder-Fired Missile Threat" is a new study from Rand Corporation. They report it is not cost-effective to spend billions of dollars equipping America's 6,800 commercial airliners with systems to guard against attacks from shoulder-fired missiles, but in the future such an investment could be justified anti-missile systems become more economical and reliable.
http://www.rand.org/news/press.05/01.25b.html

Since the December 26 tsunami there have been no recorded pirate attacks in the Malacca strait. It is unclear whether a loss of equipment or a loss of life is responsible, and the situation is being monitored.

An interrupted suicide in Los Angeles pointed to another railway vulnerability. Juan Manuel Alvarez parked his Jeep on a railway line. A commuter train struck it then two other trains were involved. Eleven people were killed and around 200 injured. Alvarez, who left before the train hit and was uninjured, has been charged with murder. A copycat incident was attempted later. This is the latest of a number of train accidents that has led to safety concerns, particularly connected with shipments of hazardous materials.

US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) moved the compliance date for the Free And Secure Trade (FAST) Card requirement for Border Release Advance Screening and Selectivity (BRASS) shipment drivers from January 31 to May 1, 2005 for the first group of 40 ports. BRASS is an automated system to expedite processing certain repetitively shipped products.
http://www.cbp.gov/xp/cgov/newsroom/press_releases/01282005.xml


13. Weapons of Mass Destruction

The UN Conference on Disarmament began a new session. The agenda includes stopping nuclear proliferation on earth or in space, nuclear disarmament, preventing nuclear war, evaluating radiological weapons and other new types of WMD, ensuring that non-nuclear states and individuals do not acquire nuclear weapons, and improving transparency.
http://disarmament2.un.org/cd/index.html

Egypt admitted it failed to disclose the extent of its nuclear activities because of poor record keeping. They are now fully cooperating with the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Scotland has created a Decontamination Service to help local authorities respond to chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear attacks.
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/News/Releases/2005/01/26101943

New avian influenza outbreaks and a case of human-to-human transmission have increased the alert, warning of a potential human pandemic.

The World Health Organization reviewed progress in the 3 x 5 initiative under which three million (of some 6 million) HIV-infected people in developing countries would receive anti-retroviral therapies by the end of 2005. At the end of 2004, only 700,000 were receiving treatment, presenting a huge challenge to meet the goal.
http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2005/pr07/en/index.html


14. Recently Published

J. F. Baddeley, "The Russian Conquest of the Caucasus" Routledge Curzon

Kate Coleman, "The Secret Wars of Judi Bari: A Car Bomb, the Fight for the Redwoods, and the End of Earth First", Encounter

Sanford Levinson, editor, "Torture: A Collection" Oxford University Press

Chris Mackey and Greg Miller, "The Interrogators: Inside the Secret War Against Al Qaeda" Little Brown

Anna Politkovskaya, "A Small Corner of Hell: Dispatches from Chechnya" University of Chicago Press

Helen Prejean, "The Death of Innocents: An Eyewitness Account of Wrongful Executions" Random House


FEATURE ARTICLE: Nuclear Proliferation in Pakistan

A new report from the US Congressional Research Service draws on research into Pakistan's exploitation of nuclear technology to call into question US policies to support both Pakistan's military government and nuclear non-proliferation objectives. Establishing effective policy today means keeping nuclear weapons out of the hands of terrorists, so resolving these conflicts is essential.

The fundamental contradiction between these two goals was first raised by the 9/11 Commission and is summarized in this report as follows:

"First, in over fifty years, the United States and Pakistan have never been able to align their national security objectives except partially and temporarily. Pakistan's central goal has been to gain U.S. support to bolster its security against India, whereas the United States has tended to view the relationship from the perspective of its global security interests. Second, U.S. nuclear nonproliferation objectives towards Pakistan (and India) repeatedly have been subordinated to other U.S. goals. During the 1980s, Pakistan successfully exploited its importance as a conduit for aid to the anti-Soviet Afghan mujahidin to deter the application of U.S. nuclear nonproliferation law. Not only did Pakistan develop its nuclear weapons capability while receiving some $600 million annually in U.S. military and economic aid, but some of the erstwhile mujahidin came to form the core of Al Qaeda and Taliban a decade later."

The report goes on to discuss past US policy failures, beginning with India's 1974 nuclear test that spurred Pakistan's desire for a nuclear response. In the decades that followed, the goals to win the Cold War and limit nuclear weapons proliferation meant that relations between the US and Pakistan were on uneasy ground. In early 1979 Pakistan illegally acquired nuclear technology and there were a number of anti-US attacks connected with the Iranian revolution. When the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in December 1979, Pakistan became an ally against communism. Pakistan continued to acquire nuclear technology and US policy towards the country fluctuated according to other economic and political drivers. At the end of the millennium relations with Pakistan were strained. After 9/11 Pakistan became a critical regional ally.

Maintaining this alliance with Pakistan's military government has meant taking assurances over their nuclear programs at face value. As detailed in this report, this approach is very dangerous. Pakistan is not a member of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty so is not bound by its ban on transfer of nuclear weapons related technology or materials to any other state. It is not a member of the Nuclear Suppliers' Group and so is not subject to its guidelines for nuclear exports. Instead, it has engaged in widespread nuclear proliferation.

Pakistan's nuclear proliferation activities were rooted in the actions of Dr. Abdul Qadir Khan and his associates at Khan Research Laboratories. From the 1980s through 2002 they developed an international network operated out of Pakistan that spanned at least four continents. The Scomi Precision Engineering factory in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, manufactured centrifuge parts. SMB Computers was a front company in Dubai, run by Sri Lankan businessman BSA Tahir. Operatives in Europe, the Middle East and Africa purchased additional components.

Khan confessed to his activities but specific details remain largely classified. Pakistan has admitted that it sold nuclear technology to Iran and Libya. Reportedly this involved the full range "from blue3prints and components to full centrifuge assemblies, uranium hexaflouride feedstock and ... a nuclear weapon design".

There is evidence that Pakistan bartered uranium enrichment technology for North Korean missiles and perhaps provided information on uranium melting to Iraq. Sources for this information remain sketchy and unverified.

Unclassified intelligence reports have shed little light on the extent of the threat, apparently to support policy objectives rather than a lack of intelligence. The CRS report cites gaps in reports to Congress despite other information available in open literature. In fact, Khan is not mentioned until mid-2004 when a report on foreign suppliers and dual-use equipment says that:

"The exposure of the A. Q. Khan network and its role in supplying nuclear technology to Libya, Iran, and North Korea illustrate one form of this threat, but commercial purveyors of dual-use technologies who routinely seek to circumvent international export control regimes to deliver WMD-related equipment and material to WMD-aspirant countries are of grave concern as well."

The CRS report says that the level of trust in a US-Pakistan security partnership depends on the culpability of the Pakistani government and the military in Khan's activities. In this regard, they cite considerable evidence that makes it improbable that the government was unaware of his actions. Khan personally enriched himself, and was allowed to keep these ill-gotten gains. In addition, his celebrity status was somewhat manufactured and by focusing on him could have diverted attention from government scientists who played important roles in nuclear weapons development. On the other hand, supporting his role as a national hero could have served domestic political purposes.

More important was the failure of the government to address both informal and formal information about his suspicious activities. Khan's colleagues, the US government, and the press all reported on his activities and evidence of a proliferation ring. In October 2003 centrifuge equipment en route to Libya was intercepted. In December Libya renounced its WMD programs and revealed Khan's support, for which he was paid some $100 million.

The network unraveled, and Pakistan's response to this again suggests prior knowledge, particularly on the part of top military officials. Khan accepted full responsibility for his activities and said that the government has not authorized them, but Khan was granted a conditional pardon from criminal prosecution. Subsequently, several civilian scientists and retired military officers were charged with proliferation-related crimes.

Bush administration officials in the US have supported Pakistan's position and say there is not enough evidence to trigger US nonproliferation laws. In a presidential debate Bush claimed that "the A. Q. Khan network has been brought to justice". National Security Advisor Rice stated "if you don't think national humiliation is justice for what he did, I think it is. He's nationally humiliated". Others, including International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Baradai, disagree and believe this was just the tip of the iceberg. Treating an international nuclear supermarket as an internal Pakistani matter also raised questions.

Further concerns regarding a US-Pakistan security partnership revolve around the viability of the Musharraf government, including lack of democracy or civil society, unclear succession, and other issues pointing to instability and a low probability that Musharraf can maintain control.

Policy options for future US relations with Pakistan offer "more constraints than options". They include:

1. Full support on condition of continued counter-terrorism support
2. Multilateral non-proliferation to concentrate on the recipient end of supply networks
3. Make high value assistance, such as military equipment, conditional on access to Khan and his network
4. Re-impose nuclear nonproliferation sanctions

To date, the Bush administration has given no indication that it will increase measures against nuclear proliferation, so the status quo of option one seems most likely.

Further Information:

* Congressional Research Service, "Pakistan's Nuclear Proliferation Activities and the Recommendations of the 9/11 Commission: U.S: Policy Constraints and Options", CRS Order Code RL32745, January 25, 2005
http://www.fas.org/spp/starwars/crs/RL32745.pdf

* The Final Report of the 9/11 Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States
http:// www.9-11commission.gov/

* " North Korean Nuclear Aspirations and Apprehensions"
https://terrorismcentral.com/Newsletters/2003/072703.html#FeatureArticle


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