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CONTENTS:

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK:

1. World
2. Africa
3. Americas
4. Asia Pacific
5. Europe
6. Middle East
7. South Asia
8. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare
9. Finance
10 Human Rights
11. Law and Legal Issues
12. Transportation
13. Weapons of Mass Destruction
14. Recently Published

FEATURE ARTICLE:
The Al Qaeda Memo

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK

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1. World

North Korea for the first time stated publicly that it has nuclear weapons and withdrew from the 6-party talks (the "Beijing process") on its nuclear program. The decision was apparently provoked by recent Bush administration accusations that North Korea sold enriched uranium to Libya and its characterization as an "outpost of tyranny". World leaders called for North Korea to rejoin the talks. The US maintains this does not change policy and that there will be no bilateral talks.

Saudi Arabia hosted an international terrorism conference that ended with the Riyadh Declaration. It " confirms that terrorist acts are a threat to international security, encourages mass media to condemn extremism and deviant ideas, urges countries and organizations worldwide to work together, supports the resolutions of the United Nations, and endorses Crown Prince Abdullah’s proposal for an international center for combating terrorism".
http://www.saudiembassy.net/2005News/News/NewsDetail.asp?cIndex=5035

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2. Africa

Democratic Republic of Congo militias clashed throughout the week in the eastern district of Ituri. The Lendu militia Nationalist Front for Integration (FNI) attacked ethnic Hema, killing more than 50 and displacing some 80,000 people. The recurrent fighting is motivated by control of natural resources.

Urban areas in Ivory Coast, particularly the capital Abidjan, have seen rising insecurity. Government forces have strengthened defenses for fear of a new rebel offense.

Liberia's first post-war government elections have been scheduled for October 11.

Somalia's exiled government plans to relocate beginning February 21, pending receipt of promised international donations. In the capital Mogadishu thousands protested deployment of foreign troops from the African Union. An umbrella group called the Islamic Court's Union organized the protest. The International Crisis Group warned that the presence of AU troops could destabilize the fragile transitional institutions and jeopardize the peace process, posing a risk that they become part of the conflict.
http://www.crisisweb.org

Togo has faces a chorus of local and international protest over the unconstitutional transfer of power from the late President to his son Faure Gnassingbe. An emergency summit of West African leaders, who are among those refusing to recognize the new government, was called and condemned the transfer of power as a coup. The African Union is considering imposing sanctions. A 2-day work stoppage to protest the coup was partially successful. Public meetings have been banned.

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3. Americas

Colombian rebels of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) ambushed troops in the northwest jungle, killing 20 soldiers.

Mexican President Vincente Fox increased personal security after a senior advisor involved in organizing official trips was arrested for reportedly leaking details of his travel arrangements to a drug trafficker.

In Peru's largest prison, riots between rival gangs killed five and injured 18 inmates.

Amid fresh torture claims, the US has agreed to return the last three French citizens held in Guantanamo Bay to France. US Defense Secretary Rumsfeld and Secretary of State Rice have been traveling in Europe, offering a message of diplomacy and asking Europeans to set aside differences over Iraq. The message has been met with skepticism.

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4. Asia Pacific

Australian Mamdouh Habib, recently released from US detention in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, says he was abused and tortured in detention. In addition, his attorney says that his home has been broken into twice, possibly in connection with Australian intelligence services.

Indonesian troops have killed seven suspected Free Aceh Movement (GAM) rebels. Peace talks will resume in Finland later this month. They had collapsed in May 2003 but talks were agreed in the aftermath of the December 26 tsunami.

The Philippine army is nearing its second week of clashes with Abu Sayyaf rebels and other militant followers of Nur Misuari. So far about 90 soldiers and rebels have been killed, and 12,000 people displaced.

Thai President Thaksin, following elections in which he won enough votes to form the first democratic single-party government, has said there will be no change in policy against southern separatists. Violence in the south continued. A bomb at a military parade wounded six but the apparent target, the provincial governor, was uninjured. There were further bombings and a gun battle at a police station, with several more casualties.

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5. Europe

Germany marked the 60th anniversary of the bombing of Dresden, in which Allied firebombing killed around 35,000 people as WWII was nearing the end.

Chechen rebel commander Shamil Basayev released a video to help disprove rumors of his death. Aslan Maskhadov, rebel leader and former Chechen President, said the unilateral ceasefire he announced with Basayev has held and presented a way to move to peace talks.

Serbian President Boris Tadic paid the first official visit of a Serb leader to Kosovo since the 1999 NATO bombing campaign. Kosovo is technically part of Serbia, but talks on its status are expected within a few months.

In Madrid, Spain, Basque separatist group ETA claimed responsibility for a car bomb that injured 40 people.

British Prime Minister Blair has apologized to the Conlon and Maguire families who had suffered when eleven of the family members and their friends were wrongfully convicted of the 1974 bombings in Guildford and Woolwich. He said they should be completely ad publicly exonerated.

The Fourth Report of the Independent Monitoring Commission is an ad hoc investigation into the Northern Bank robbery. The report finds that the Irish Republican Army (IRA) carried out this raid as well as other robberies and that the political wing, Sinn Fein, knew of and approved the action.
http://www.independentmonitoringcommission.org/publications.cfm?id=24

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6. Middle East

Following a summit in Egypt, Palestinian leader Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Sharon declared an informal truce. Hamas and Islamic Jihad said they are not bound by the truce but would respect it while considering whether to join it. A mortar attack in mid-week led Abbas to dismiss several top security commanders in the Gaza Strip. He is planning talks with militant factions to encourage them to join the ceasefire.

Iran says it will continue with plans to build a heavy-water nuclear reactor to make it a major fuel supplier in the predicted energy shortage, rather than take up European offer to build a light-water reactor instead. Iranians marched in tens of thousands despite heavy snowfalls, to mark the anniversary of the 1979 revolution. Speeches promised united retaliation against threats or invasion.

Iraqi election officials announced election results:

Bombings in Iraq this week included: an attack in Mosul and Baquba that killed 25 police; a suicide at a Baghdad army recruitment center that killed 21; nine killed in Basra; south of Baghdad eight police killed and 60 injured; 23 dead in anti-Shia attacks; and 18 killed by a car bomb. Borders have been and will largely remain closed.

Saudi Arabian men voted in the first nationwide municipal elections. This first of three rounds began in Riyadh and will expand to other regions in March and April.

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7. South Asia

Afghanistan's NATO peacekeeping mission will be bolstered with a further deployment in western regions. Issues arising last week included unidentified aircraft spraying poppy fields, how best to limit the drugs trade, persistent violence against women, and dire prison conditions.

In the Indian state of Karnataka suspected Maoist rebels attacked police, killing six.

A week after Nepal's King Gyanendra declared a state of emergency, phone and internet connections were restored. There have been multiple arrests and the media crackdown continues under suspension of constitutional rights. Local human rights groups have asked the international community to put pressure on Gyanendra to restore rights and the US has warned that unless restrictions are eased within the next 100 days it could affect their aid. Maoist rebels have imposed a transport blockade and instead of holding talks or establishing a republic will now focus on abolishing the monarchy. February 13 marks the ninth year of the uprising.

In Balochistan province of Pakistan attacks against government installations continue, focusing on power sources and distribution. Suspected militants used four bombs to destroy a key rail line. In south Waziristan province there have been attacks against journalists, with two shot dead.

Sri Lankan Tamil Tiger leader E Kausalyan and five associates were ambushed and shot dead. Following an angry protest by Tamil members, parliament was suspended. The government has denied responsibility but suspicion has fallen on paramilitaries. Kausalyan, a political leader, was the most senior Tiger killed since the February 2002 ceasefire and his murder raises fears of a return to civil war.

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8. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare

IBM's 2004 Global Business Security Index Report provides a look at potential security threats in 2005 including the aggressive spread of viruses and worms to handheld devices, cell phones, wireless networks, and embedded computers, which include car and satellite communication systems.
http://www.ibm.com/press/PressServletForm.wss?MenuChoice=pressreleases&TemplateName=ShowPressReleaseTemplate&SelectString=t1.docunid=7512&TableName=DataheadApplicationClass&SESSIONKEY=any&WindowTitle=Press+Release&STATUS=publish
Microsoft released software updates to fix 16 security flaws, with eight deemed critical. More than half were patches to repair security flaws in the Service Pack 2 security upgrade.
http://www.microsoft.com/security/default.mspx

The Bankash-A trojan attempts to steal personal information from financial web sites and tries to disable Microsoft's anti-spyware software.
http://securityresponse.symantec.com/avcenter/venc/data/pwsteal.bankash.a.html

Non-Microsoft browsers include a URL spoofing flaw that uses Unicode characters for phishing scams.
http://news.netcraft.com/archives/2005/02/07/nonmicrosoft_browsers_have_spoofing_flaw.html

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9. Finance

Yasser Arafat's financial affairs were investigated in an in-depth report in the Financial Times. Roula Khalaf and Stephen Fidler followed the money trail on February 7 and 8.

Arab Bank will close its US operations in light of terrorist financing and money laundering investigations and lawsuits.

Switzerland's highest court rejected an appeal by the late Nigerian dictator Sani Abacha's family and approved the return of $500 million.

The Fourth Report of the Independent Monitoring Commission is an ad hoc investigation into the Northern Bank robbery. The report finds that the Irish Republican Army (IRA) carried out this raid as well as other robberies and that the political wing, Sinn Fein, knew of and approved the action.
http://www.independentmonitoringcommission.org/publications.cfm?id=24

PNC's agreement to purchase Riggs Bank fell apart after Riggs' guilty plea to money laundering charges but after a lawsuit and other suitors, a new agreement was reached and the acquisition will proceed.

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10. Human Rights

UN Secretary General Annan has called for sanctions against groups that use children as soldiers. Child soldiers are used by government and rebel forces in countries such as Burma, Burundi, Colombia, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Ivory Coast, Nepal, Philippines, Somalia, Sri Lanka, Uganda and others. UN peacekeeping forces in DRC are also accused of exploiting women and children. The UN special envoy for Children and Armed Conflict (CAAC) launched an action plan for systematic worldwide monitoring and reporting of abuse of children in armed conflict or other situations of concern.

The US Commission on International Religious Freedom released "Report on Asylum Seekers in Expedited Removal". It finds that asylum seekers are treated as criminals and face harsh detention conditions.
http://www.uscirf.gov/reports/ERSrpt/index.php3

The Global Pastoralist Gathering attracted more than 200 participants from 23 countries, to share ideas on sustainable development. At the end of the meeting they agreed their greatest concern was loss of traditional rights to grazing land.
http://www.ocha-eth.org/Home/HotTopics8/Hottopics8.htm

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11. Law and Legal Issues

Nahum Acosta, a Mexican government worker, was arrested for allegedly leaking details of President Fox's travel plans to a drug cartel.

Salahuddin Amin was arrested in Heathrow Airport after arriving from Pakistan and has been charged under the 1883 Explosive Substances Act.

Benedictine monks Juan Jose Aguirre Begiristain and Marcel Echandi were arrested in Spain and France, respectively, on suspicion of links to Basque separatist group ETA leader Mikel Antza.

Anthony Joseph Donegan has been charged in Northern Ireland with providing the car used by the Real IRA to leave the 1998 Omagh bomb.

Abdel Jabber Hamdan was ordered deported from the US because he raised funds for the Holy Land Foundation, an Islamic charity that has been connected to terrorist financing.

Anthony Lee, Liam Lynas, Pearce O'Neill, Simone Sloan and Christopher Smiley have been charged in Northern Ireland with possessing firebombs and membership of the Real IRA.

Martin Mubanga, a Britain held in Guantanamo Bay for 33 months, will sue the US government for his detention.

Victor Solomka, a Ukrainian gangmaster, was sentenced in British court to seven years prison for money laundering and conspiracy to breach immigration laws.

Lynne Stewart, a US civil rights attorney who defended radical Egyptian cleric Omar Abdel Rahman, has been convicted of supporting terrorists by smuggling a message from Rahman to his followers.

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12. Transportation

The US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) received 52 intelligence reports on al Qaeda between April and September 2001, providing numerous indications that airlines might be hijacked. The terrorism warnings were detailed in a 9/11 Commission Staff Report on FAA Failings that has now been released under the Freedom of Information Act.
http://www2.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB148/index.htm
Also note New York Times article by Eric Lichtblau
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/02/10/politics/10terror.html

The IMB Piracy Reporting Center reports that the annual death toll from piracy rose in 2004. 30 crew were killed compared with 21 in 2003. The number of attacks was down from 445 in 2003 to 325 in 2004. Indonesia had more than a quarter of reported attacks. Hijacking and kidnapping in the Northern Malacca Straits and off North Sumatra was previously thought to be the work of separatist rebels in Aceh but there are signs that crime syndicates are using fishing boats for these attacks.
http://www.icc-ccs.org/main/news.php?newsid=40

The International Labor Organization Seafarer's Identity Documents Convention 2003 that requires biometric identity verification for seafarers has come into force.

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13. Weapons of Mass Destruction

The Natural Resources Defense Council reports that the US is still deploying 480 nuclear weapons in Europe, more than twice the number previously believed.
http://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/euro/contents.asp

Experts writing in the New England Journal of Medicine recommend routine screening for HIV infection as both timely and cost-effective.
http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/short/352/6/586

A highly resistant strain of rapidly progressive HIV strain has been diagnosed for the first time in a New York City resident who had not previously undergone antiviral drug treatment. The strain of three-class antiretroviral-resistant HIV - or 3-DCR HIV - does not respond to three classes of anti-retroviral medication, and also appears to greatly shorten the interval between HIV infection and the onset of AIDS.
http://www.nyc.gov/html/doh/html/public/press05/pr016-05.html

A new strain of influenza (A/California/7/2004 (H3N2)) has been identified in California and is spreading rapidly. Vaccine for next year will be modified to include it.
http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/notes/2005/np05/en/index.html

Chinese scientists have developed a new animal vaccine to prevent avian influenza.

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14. Recently Published

Romeo Dallaire, "Shake Hands with the Devil: The Failure of Humanity in Rwanda" Carroll and Graf/Arrow

Sam Harris, "The End of Faith: Religion, Terror, and the Future of Reason" Norton/Free Press

Brian MacArthur, "Surviving the Sword: Prisoners of the Japanese 1942-45" Little Brown

Natan Sharansky with Ron Dermer, "The Case for Democracy: The Power of Freedom to Overcome Tyranny and Terror" Public Affairs

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FEATURE ARTICLE: The Al Qaeda Memo

Former National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice and other members of the Bush administration have claimed that no al Qaeda plan was turned over to the new administration, that that they were not guilty of ignoring the problem, and had done all that was humanly possible. Former Counterterrorism Coordinator Richard Clarke disagreed and told the 9/11 Commission, "there's a lot of debate about whether it's a plan or a strategy or a series of options -- but all of the things we recommended back in January were those things on the table in September. They were done. They were done after September 11th. They were all done. I didn't really understand why they couldn't have been done in February".

A January 25, 2001memorandum from Clarke to Rice is central to this dispute. Although declassified the day before Rice's testimony on April 8, 2004, the memo was not released to the public until the National Security Archive obtained it last week.
The text of this memorandum follows as it was written, with the brief redactions noted:

First Page:

(Redacted)
30009
NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL
Washington, D. C. 20504

January 25, 2001

INFORMATION

MEMORANDUM FOR CONDOLEEZZA RICE

FROM: RICHARD A. CLARKE (initials)

SUBJECT: Presidential Policy Initiative/Review -- The Al-Qida Network

Condi * asked today that we propose major Presidential policy reviews or initiatives. We URGENTLY need such a Principals level review on the al Qida network.

Just some Terrorist Group?

As we noted in our briefings for you, al Qida is not some narrow, little terrorist issue that needs to be included in broader regional policy. Rather, several of our regional policies need to address centrally the transnational challenge to the US and our interests posed by the al Qida network. By proceeding with separate policy reviews on Central Asia, the GCC, North Africa, etc. we would deal inadequately with the need for a comprehensive multi-regional policy on al Qida.

Al Qida is the active, organized, major force that is using a distorted version of Islam as its vehicle to achieve two goals:

-- to drive the US out of the Muslim world, forcing the withdrawal of our military and economic presence in countries from Morocco to Indonesia;

-- to replace moderate, modern, Western regime in Muslim countries with theocracies modeled along the lines of the Taliban.

Al Qida affects centrally our policies on Pakistan, Afghanistan, Central Asia, North Africa and the GCC. Leaders in Jordan and Saudi Arabia see al Qida as a direct threat to them. The strength of the network of organizations limits the scope of support friendly Arab regimes can give to a range of US

(Redacted)
Classified by: Richard A. Clarke
Reason: 1.5(d) (x6)
Declassify On: 1/25/25
Derived From: Multiple Sources

NSC DECLASSIFICATION REVIEW (E.O. 12958)
/X/ Exempt in part and redact as shown
by D. Sanborn Date 4/7/2004

(Redacted)

2

policies, including Iraq policy and the Peace Process. We would make a major error if we underestimated the challenge al Qida poses, or over estimated the stability of the moderate, friendly regimes al Qida threatens.

Pending Time Sensitive Decisions

At the close of the Clinton Administration, two decisions about al Qida were deferred to the Bush Administration.

-- First, should we provide the Afghan Northern Alliance enough assistance to maintain it as a viable opposition force to the Taliban/al Qida? If we do not, I believe that the Northern Alliance may be effectively taken out of action this Spring when fighting resumes after the winter thaw. The al Qida 55th Brigade, which has been a key fighting force for the Taliban, would then be freed to send its personnel elsewhere, where they would likely threaten US interests. For any assistance to get there in time to effect the Spring fighting, a decision is needed now.

-- Second, should we increase assistance to Uzbekistan to allow them to deal with the al Qida/IMU threat? (redacted - Operational detail, removed at the request of the CIA)

Three other issues awaiting addressal now are:

-- First, what the new Administration says to the Taliban and Pakistan about the importance we attach to ending the al Qida sanctuary in Afghanistan. We are separately proposing early, strong messages to both.

-- Second, do we propose significant program growth in the FY 02 budget for anti-al Qida operations by CIA and counter-terrorism training and assistance by State and CIA?

-- Third, when and how does the Administration choose to respond to the attack on the USS Cole. That decision is obviously complex. We can make some decisions, such as the those above, now without yet coming to grips with the harder decision about the Cole. On the Cole, we should take advantage of the policy that we "will respond at a time, place, and manner of our own choosing" and not be forced into knee jerk responses.

(redacted)

3

Attached is the year-end 2000 strategy on al Qida developed by the last Administration to give to you. Also attached is the 1998 strategy. Neither was a "covert action only" approach. Both incorporated diplomatic, economic, military,; public diplomacy and intelligence tools. Using the 2000 paper as background, we could prepare a decision paper/guide for a PC review.

I recommend that you have a Principals discussion of al Qida soon and address the following issues:

15. Threat Magnitude: Do the Principals agree that the al Qida network poses a first order threat to US interests in a number or regions, or is this analysis a "chicken little" over reaching and can we proceed without major new initiatives and by handling this issue in a more routine manner?

16. Strategy: If it is a first order issue, how should the existing strategy be modified or strengthened?

Two elements of the existing strategy that have not been made to work effectively are a) going after al Qida's money and b) public information to counter al Qida propaganda

17. FY02 Budget: Should we continue the funding increases into FY02 for State and CIA programs designed to implement the al Qida strategy?

18. Immediate (redacted) Decisions: Should we initiate (redacted) funding to the Northern Alliance and to the Uzbek's?

Please let us know if you would like such a decision/discussion paper or any modifications to the background paper.
Concurrences by: Mary McCarthy, Dan Fried, Bruce Reidel, Don Camp (initials RC FR)

Attachment
Tab A December 2000 Paper: Strategy for Eliminating the Threat from the Jihadist Networks of al-Qida: Status and Prospects

Tab B September 1998 Paper: Pol-Mil Plan for al-Qida

(Redacted)

* The name Steve is crossed out and Condi written in its place

Clarke attached to this memorandum, a 13-page document, "Strategy for Eliminating the Threat from the Jihadist Networks of al Qida: Status and Prospects" (also declassified). It described the organization and the threat it represented, including media propaganda, financing, recruitment, transportation, training, a multi-national pool of trained terrorists and fighters supporting Jihad outside their own country, a global cell of sponsored organizations that threatens direct attacks on the US, where it already has a presence. Further threats are subversion of other governments and WMD.

The second memo further states the goal is to roll back the network to the point it no longer poses an interest to the US or US interests, outlines measures taken to that point, and describes the steps necessary to complete the strategy.

Testimony and the documents referred to in this article can be obtained from:

* National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States 9-11 Commission),
http://www.9-11commission.gov/
* National Security Archive
http://www2.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB147/index.htm

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