AUTHOR:
TerrorismCentral Editorial Staff
TITLE:
TerrorismCentral Newsletter - February 20, 2005
SOURCE:
TerrorismCentral, February 20, 2005
TEXT:
The assassination of prominent Lebanese leader Rafik Hariri; a "Valentines' Day Gift" of coordinated bombings in the southern Philippines as two weeks of fighting continue; new reports on timber trafficking; and the need for universities to consider anti-money laundering measures are among this week's News Highlights. The Feature Article excerpts testimony by the new Director of Central Intelligence, Porter J. Goss, before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence on "Global Intelligence Challenges 2005".
1. World
2. Africa
3. Americas
4. Asia Pacific
5. Europe
6. Middle East
7. South Asia
8. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare
9. Finance
10 Human Rights
11. Law and Legal Issues
12. Transportation
13. Weapons of Mass Destruction
14. Recently Published
FEATURE ARTICLE:
Global Intelligence Challenges 2005
NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK
North Korea says it no longer wants to hold even bilateral discussions with the US regarding its nuclear program.
The spread of deadly avian influenza may have been underestimated because only respiratory symptoms have been used for diagnosis. Analysis of deaths in Vietnam suggests the disease can attack not only the lungs, but also all parts of the body.
http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/short/352/7/686
The UN Security Council Committee responsible for sanctions against al Qaeda, the Taliban and their associates, issued their second report. They reviewed implementation of sanctions and ways to improve them and mentioned that sub-Saharan Africa had been identified as a particularly vulnerable area for recruiting and establishing al Qaeda bases.
http://www.un.org/News/briefings/docs/2005/Sanctions_Cttee_050215.doc.htm
The world’s population has reached 6.5 billion this year, a billion more than 1993, despite low fertility in developed countries and high mortality in developing countries, and could reach 7 billion in 2012.
http://www.un.org/Docs/journal/asp/ws.asp?m=e/cn.9/2005/8
Connected with population growth are urbanization and the growth of mega-cities, raising new risks connected with underground expansion.
http://www.unu.edu/hq/rector_office/press2005/pre01-05.html
China, with 1.3 billion people and a booming economy, has overtaken the US in the consumption of basic agricultural and industrial goods, according to a new Earth Policy Institute report.
http://www.earth-policy.org/Updates/Update45.htm
The Kyoto Protocol to reduce greenhouse emissions came into effect on February 16.
Burundi's founder and leader of the National Council for the Defense of Democracy/Defense Forces of Democracy (CNDD-FDD), Leonard Nyangoma has returned home after ten years in exile.
Democratic Republic of Congo's northeast Ituri region has seen continued interethnic violence throughout the month, in which more than 70 villages have been attacked, 50 civilians killed, and over 80,000 people displaced. A military court sentenced 21 government soldiers to death for atrocities in the eastern town of Kanyabayonga last December. The International Center for Transitional Justice says that rather than appoint former militia leaders to high-ranking army positions, the government should consider prosecutions of those responsible for serious abuses, in order to ensure lasting and sustainable peace.
http://www.ictj.org/
At the Eritrean-Ethiopian border, the disputed frontier has seen a large military build-up and there are reports of clashes between the forces. The situation is being closely monitored for fear war would break out again. During the 1998-2000 war more than 70,000 people were killed. A boundary commission meeting is scheduled for later this month.
In Somalia there have been daily demonstrations against proposed African Union troops being deployed to help the new government return from Kenya, where it has been operating in exile. While an AU delegation left the capital, Mogadishu, an explosive attached to a motorbike went off killing two and injuring six.
Sudan's Darfur region, described as "hell on earth", faces a rapidly deteriorating situation, with millions in need of aid and immediate political and security action desperately needed. http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=13398&Cr=sudan&Cr1=
Briefing the Security Council, human rights commissioner Louise Arbour said that Sudan's government cannot be trusted to tackle war crimes and that the only credible way bring justice is through the International Criminal Court. http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=13373&Cr=sudan&Cr1=
Sudan has rejected the recommendation and the US has proposed creating a new tribunal for Sudan. Human Rights Watch and others warn this will lack the speed and authority necessary.
http://www.hrw.org/english/docs/2005/02/16/sudan10182.htm
Togo's army-appointed President Faure Gnassingbe says he will hold presidential elections within 60 days, but remain as president during that time. The African Union, ECOWAS, and international leaders reject this suggestion and insist he must step down immediately, in accordance with the constitution. If not, African leaders threaten punitive sanctions.
Uganda warns of an all out offensive against the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) rebels if peace talks falter. Meanwhile, around 800 former LRA fighters, some under 18 years of age, have joined the national army, in what was termed the lesser evil. LRA negotiator Brig Sam Kolo surrendered to the government.
Zambia's Supreme Court ruled that irregularities in the 2001 vote for President Levy Mwanawasa did not affect the final result, thereby upholding his election.
Colombian President Uribe and Venezuelan President Chavez met and resolved the dispute over Colombia's kidnapping a rebel leader in Venezuela. Colombia says the incident will not be repeated. The two countries have reactivated commercial and trade agreements and are committed to increased border security. There has been an upsurge in Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) rebel attacks since the beginning of the year.
In Ecuador, tens of thousands of people took to the streets to demonstrate both for and against the government of President Gutierrez, who recently convinced the Congress to dismiss most of the Supreme Court.
Paraguay's government is investigating the kidnap and murder of Cecilia Cubas, daughter of former President Raul Cubas. They suggested that FARC guerillas from Colombia connected to the left-wing Patria Libre party might have been involved.
Uruguay's Senate will be led for former Tupamaro rebel leader Jose Mujica and another Tupamaro rebel, Nora Castro, will lead the Chamber of Deputies.
US President Bush nominated John Negroponte, a career diplomat and current ambassador to Iraq, to be the first national intelligence director. Michael Chertoff has been confirmed as the new secretary of homeland security.
The International Committee for the Red Cross has discussed concerns about Guantanamo Bay detainees with US President Bush and other officials. Meanwhile, the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) has obtained further documents released by the Army regarding prisoner abuse in Afghanistan and Iraq.
http://www.aclu.org
Australia has warned against travel to Indonesia particularly in light of "new information suggesting that terrorists may be planning attacks against foreigners involved in the tsunami relief effort in Aceh and other parts of northern Sumatra".
http://www.smartraveller.gov.au/zw-cgi/view/Advice/Indonesia
Burma has reopened constitutional talks despite the absence of the national League for Democracy, the main opposition party whose leader Aung San Suu Kyi remains under house arrest.
French Polynesia held a second election that ended in deadlock, with pro- and anti-independence parties having equal votes and neither with enough to form a government.
Indonesian police report they have found a copy of the Nidhom Azasi, described as a constitution for Jemaah Islamiah (JI).
South Korea's National Intelligence Service for the first time has acknowledged that North Korea may have built one or two crude nuclear weapons that could be mounted on bombers if their weight was not excessive.
The southern Philippines entered the second week of clashes between government forces and Muslim rebels of the Abu Sayyaf, as well as some members of the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) who object to their peace accord with the government. In addition to fierce gun battles at army and rebel camps, there were bombings in three major cities, killing dozens and injuring hundreds. Abu Sayyaf said that coordinated attacks on the 14th were a "Valentine's Day gift" for President Arroyo, who has promised to wipe out the rebels.
Thai Prime Minister Thaksin visited the south, where he announced using military and economic measures to punish villages that supported Islamic separatism. Local leaders criticized the plan. Bombs accompanied both the beginning and the end of Thaksin's visit, killed ten and injured 43. Prior to his visit a remote-controlled explosion killed eight security forces. More troops will be sent to the region.
In Athens, Greece a series of homemade bombs exploded at four branches of Eurobank and one of the National Bank, causing property damage. Such anarchist-connected attacks had declined following security put in place for the Olympics but have increased recently.
Irish parliamentary Sub-Committee on the Barron Report on the Dublin Bombings of 1972 and 1973 launched their final report on the bombings that killed nine people and recommended the Irish government bring the case before the European Court of Human Rights, hoping to force a public inquiry in the UK. No one has ever been convicted for the attacks.
http://www.oireachtas.ie/viewdoc.asp?DocID=3504
Portugal holds assembly elections on February 20.
In the southern Russian region of Dagestan a car bomb near the Chechen border killed three and injured five. The attack was blamed on Chechen rebels.
Spanish police detained two suspected members of Basque separatist group ETA, armed and carrying explosives. There is some concern that separatist attacks could take place in connection with the February 20 referendum of the EU constitution.
In Northern Ireland, the Irish Republican Army and the Sinn Fein political party have come under intense pressure over alleged connections to the Northern Bank robbery last December and paramilitary attacks. This week Sinn Fein and the IRA appealed for information about a man who was stabbed to death in a pub fight. The victim's family believes republicans have put pressure on witnesses not to testify and that both the IRA and Sinn Fein are protecting the attackers, that apparently included a number of IRA members although the organization is not accused of ordering the attack.
Several measures connected with the Israeli-Palestinian truce have been announced. Israel plans to end the Egypt/Gaza border travel ban against Palestinians aged 16-35, allow some exiled Palestinians back into the West Bank, release 500 prisoners, and stop demolishing suicide bombers homes. The Palestinian Authority will rein in militants and take over security in five West Bank towns. Israel plans increased security measures to address growing threats from right wing Israelis that are opposed to the Gaza withdrawal.
Iran says the US has been flying surveillance drones over its nuclear sites and has protested the practice. Conversations regarding Iran's nuclear program continue and Russian President Putin says he is convinced Iran is not trying to build arms and that Russia will continue helping Iran build its nuclear reactor for power generation.
Iran and Syria have formed a mutual self-defense pact to address common threats.
Iraq's election commission has certified the electoral results. The Shia United Iraqi Alliance party won 48% of the vote and was allocated 140 seats in the interim national assembly. Kurdish parties have 75 seats and interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi's party has 40 seats. Discussions to form a governing coalition and to select a president and two vice-presidents are underway. With the election over, the pace of attacks has increased again, particularly against Shias ahead of the holy day of Ashura.
Former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri was killed in a massive car bomb explosion. Some 600 pounds of explosives opened up a 15-foot crater and sent a car to the third floor of a nearby hotel. In addition to Hariri, 14 others died and more than 135 were injured. It was the largest bombing in Lebanon since the end of the civil war more than 15 years ago. A previously unknown group called Victory and Jihad claimed responsibility, but there have been many other suspects, including Syria. Hariri's funeral turned into a protest against Syria's presence in Lebanon. The UN is sending a team of experts to investigate the attack. (Note: Next week's Feature Article will provide background on this topic.)
Afghanistan's International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), a NATO operation, is now under the command of Turkey. The UN announced that Jalalabad region has become the second to be disarmed. In eastern Nangarhar province almost all the young men chose to join the Afghan National Army (ANA) now that poppy cultivation has been banned.
http://www.irinnews.org/report.asp?ReportID=45622
Four senior Taliban leaders (Abdul Hakim Mujahid, Arsullah Rahmani, Rahmatullah Wahidyar and Fawzi) accepted an amnesty offer with President Karzai's government.
In Bangladesh, firebomb attacks against the Bangladesh Rural Advancement Committee and the Grameen Bank injured at least eight employees of the agencies. Islamic extremists are suspected.
India and Pakistan launched the first bus service linking the two partitions of Kashmir across the Line of Control for the first time in 57 years.
Nepal's King Gyanendra announced a new royal commission empowered to seize property and take other measures to combat corruption. The royalist government says it will gradually relax curbs on civil rights but international criticism continues and divisions inside the country appear to be widening.
Pakistan's southwestern city of Quetta was the scene of raids in which 27 Sunni militants of the banned Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) were detained following a suicide attack in which two militants were planning to attack a Shia religious procession. Six LeJ suspects were also arrested in Balochistan. Tribal fighting in North Waziristan killed two foreign nationals, possibly because of militant infighting.
Sri Lanka's Tamil Tigers deny UN reports they have recruited thousands of child soldiers ahead of proposed travel and other sanctions. The Tigers have asked the government to disarm paramilitary groups they blame for killing a rebel leader and five others last week.
8. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare
The Phish Report Network has been established by a group of vendors (including Visa, eBay and Microsoft) to help reduce online identity theft by safeguarding consumers from phishing attacks. They have developed a central database that allows companies to report fraudulent sites and make it easy to block them.
http://www.phishreport.net/
A University of Glamorgan study finds more than half the hard drives they examined still contained sensitive information possibly of use to criminals including passwords, national insurance numbers and other material that could allow personal and corporate identification.
http://www.glam.ac.uk/news/releases/002499.php
Fraud prevention company Early Warning warns of a new scam targeting the UK Companies House database, changing company registration details and allowing bogus accounts etc to then be created. http://www.early-warning.org/viewnews.php4?id=40 Companies House has introduced an anti-hijacking service to mitigate this threat.
http://www.companieshouse.gov.uk/infoAndGuide/proof.shtml
The W32/Deadcode-A virus infects executable code and displays a nationalist message used by the Crna Ruka ("Black Hand").
http://www.sophos.com/virusinfo/articles/deadcode.html
Olatunji Oluwatosin pleaded no contest to charges connected with his participation in an identity theft ring in which at least 750 people were victims. In addition to requiring notification that some 145,000 personal records could have been compromised, the case has wider implications with congressional moves to begin implementing restrictions on private companies use of personal data that are similar to regulations already in place for credit reports and financial and healthcare data.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-hacker16feb16,0,1035887.story?coll=la-home-headlines
http://www.choicepoint.com/news/statement_0205_1.html
http://feinstein.senate.gov/05releases/r-idtheft-notify.htm
Science Applications International Corp (SAIC), a US military/intelligence government contractor, has reported theft of computers containing personal information on thousands of past and current employees.
http://www.saic.com/cover-archive/announce/012805.html
Identity theft remains the most widely reported consumer complaint in the US, according to the Federal Trade Commission.
http://www.ftc.gov
Irish police investigating Irish Republican Army (IRA) money-laundering have arrested seven people and recovered more than GBP 2 million. Forensic analysis is underway to determine whether the money came from the December Northern Bank robbery. Police have confirmed that GBP 50,000 found in the toilets of a country club is from the robbery.
The UN Al-Qaida and Taliban Sanctions Committee added Muhsin Al-Fadhli to its consolidated list (Al-Qaida section). The US Treasury also designated Al-Fadhli in connection with financing the al-Zarqawi network in Iraq.
http://www.un.org/Docs/sc/committees/1267/1267ListEng.htm
http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/js2252.htm
The Environmental Investigation Agency (EIA) and Telapak released "The Last Frontier". The report exposes the international criminal syndicates behind the massive looting of merbau trees from Indonesia’s Papua Province to feed China’s timber processing industry. China is the largest buyer of illegal timber in the world. Illegal logging in Papua typically involves the collusion of the Indonesian military, the involvement of Malaysian logging gangs, and the exploitation of indigenous communities. The profits are vast as local communities only receive around $10 for each cubic meter of merbau felled on their land, while the same logs fetch as much as $270 per cubic meter in China.
http://www.eia-international.org/cgi/news/news.cgi?a=234&t=template.htm
Swiss bank Lombard Odier Darier Hentsch (LODH) confirmed a Financial Times report (cited last week) that the Palestinian Authority had opened an investment account worth at least $200 million. However, they insist allegations that funds were transferred without proper oversight were unfounded and that the bank had conformed to international standards including due diligence procedures.
The EU's Third Directive on Money Laundering is due for adoption the first half of this year. KPMG in the UK has advised that this directive stipulates any business which has customers paying cash for services in excess of 15,000 Euros will have to watch for suspicious payments and report them to the National Criminal Intelligence Service (NCIS). Universities, business schools and private schools often take large cash payments from overseas and sometimes domestic school fees and therefore will need to change business practices to accommodate the new regulations.
http://www.kpmg.co.uk/news/detail.cfm?pr=2163
Tajikistan has become the second country in Central Asia to abolish the death penalty for all crimes. Of the five Central Asian nations, only Uzbekistan still retains the death penalty and reportedly carries out executions. Turkmenistan abolished the death sentence in 1999, while Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan earlier introduced a moratorium on executions. Of the 55 members of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), only Uzbekistan, Belarus and the US continue to carry out executions.
http://www.irinnews.org/report.asp?ReportID=45574
The Food and Agricultural Organization's "State of Agricultural Commodity Markets 2004" warns that trade barriers and subsidies severely distort the market and lead to good insecurity for 2.5 billion people in the developing world, particularly in the poorest countries.
http://www.fao.org
The International Federation of Journalists issued reports on Iraq and Nepal last week. They called on the US to take responsibility for journalists alleged to have died at the hands of the US military and for Nepal to free the journalists that have been imprisoned since the King declared a state of emergency and eliminated civil rights.
http://www.ifj.org
Salahuddin Amin, arrested last week at Heathrow airport, was charged in a London court with six others accused of conspiracy to cause an explosion. He claims that he was tortured by British, US and Pakistan intelligence agents after his arrest abroad.
Don Bullman was arrested during an anti-money laundering operation in Ireland, where he has now been charged with of membership of the Real IRA.
Mikel Orbegozo Etxarri and Sara Majarenas Ibarreta were arrested in Spain. Suspected members of Basque separatist group ETA, they were found with arms, explosives, and operational documents indicating a planned attack.
Yusuf Islam (formerly Cat Stevens) was awarded substantial damages and public apologies from two British newspapers, the Sun and Sunday Times, for having made false allegations claiming the singer supported terrorism.
Mullah Mohammad Naeem, a Taliban commander, was captured by Afghan forces and handed over to the US.
Chhouk Rin, a former Khmer Rouge commander, lost his final appeal against a conviction in the 1994 murder of three tourists. Thirteen Cambodians were also killed in the attack.
Curtis Warren ("Cocky Watchman") of the UK has been charged in the Netherlands with running an international drugs cartel from his Dutch prison cell, where he is serving time for murder and smuggling.
International Maritime Organization (IMO) Secretary General Efthimios E. Mitropoulos met with Admiral Thomas H. Collins, Commandant of United States Coast Guard, in London to discuss the work IMO is doing and will continue to do in the enhancement of maritime security.
http://www.imo.org/
In testimony on Current and Projected National Security Threats to the United States before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, Vice Admiral Jacoby stated "We judge Iran can briefly close the Strait of Hormuz, relying on a layered strategy using predominately naval, air, and some ground forces. Last year it purchased North Korean torpedo and missile-armed fast attack craft and midget submarines, making marginal improvements to this capability."
http://www.dia.mil/Public/Testimonies/statement15.html
The US Department of Transportation has created a new agency, the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, to develop and apply innovative technology for improved safety.
http://www.dot.gov/affairs/DOT2805.htm
The US Government Accountability Office (GAO) released several reports last week:
* "Homeland Security: Process for Reporting Lessons Learned from Seaport Exercises Needs Further Attention". The report describes response procedures in case of an attack or security incident at seaports, where cargo ships and other targets are readily available. They find that the exercises often do not meet standards for timeliness or completeness and the Coast Guard needs to take action to complete development of the port-terrorism incident framework and other measures.
http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-05-170
* "Transportation Security: Systematic Planning Needed to Optimize Resources" reviews Transportation Security Administration efforts to strengthen transportation security, particularly in aviation. TSA has not consistently used a risk management approach or conducted systematic analysis to inform and prioritize security measures. A particular challenge is to address threats across all transportation modes.
http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-05-357T
Another GAO report looks at "Border Security: Streamlined Visas Mantis Program Has Lowered Burden on Foreign Science Students and Scholars, but Further Refinements Needed". It finds that the departments of State and Homeland Security have reduced from months to weeks visa processing.
http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-05-198
Concern over visa refusals to foreign applicants is also at issue in the UK, where latest figures show a marked fall in applicants.
http://www.ucas.ac.uk/
http://www.hero.ac.uk/uk/reference_and_subject_resources/groups_and_organisations/coalition_of_modern_universiti3703.cfm
13. Weapons of Mass Destruction
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has found nothing new during investigations in the past six months to substantiate claims that Iran is secretly developing a nuclear bomb.
The UK Atomic Energy Authority (UKAEA) confirmed that 29.6-kg of plutonium and 16.4-kg of naturally depleted uranium are missing from the Sellafield nuclear plant. Plant operator, British Nuclear Group (BNG), says there is no reason to think the material - enough to make seven nuclear bombs - is missing but rather is a discrepancy between the physical and book inventories. Such auditing mistakes reportedly are within international norms.
The UN report on Small Arms finds there has been progress in cooperation to trade illicit small arms and light weapons, systematic monitoring, and more vigorous measures against arms embargo violations. However more work needs to be done with interaction between the Security Council and General Assembly, support for the Small Arms Advisory Service and support for reintegration of former combatants into their communities.
http://www.un.org/Docs/journal/asp/ws.asp?m=s/2005/69
Thomas Kelly, "Empire Rising" Farrar, Straus and Giroux
Paul Lettow, "Ronald Reagan and His Quest to Abolish Nuclear Weapons" Random House
Laurence Rees, "Auschwitz: A New History" Public Affairs
Tom Reiss, "The Orientalist: Solving the Mystery of a Strange and Dangerous Life" Random House/Chatto and Windus
Andrew Roberts, "Waterloo: Napoleon's Last Gamble" HarperCollins; in the US published as "Waterloo, June 18, 1815: The Battle for Modern Europe"
Philip Short, "Pol Pot: Anatomy of a Nightmare" Henry Holt
FEATURE ARTICLE: Global Intelligence Challenges 2005
Excerpts from Director of Central Intelligence Porter J. Goss testimony before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, 16 February 2005 as prepared
.... [D]efeating terrorism must remain one of our intelligence community's core objectives, as widely dispersed terrorist networks will present one of the most serious challenges to US national security interests at home and abroad in the coming year. In the past year, aggressive measures by our intelligence, law enforcement, defense and homeland security communities, along with our key international partners have dealt serious blows to al-Qa'ida and others. Despite these successes, however, the terrorist threat to the US in the Homeland and abroad endures.
Al-Qa'ida is intent on finding ways to circumvent US security enhancements to strike Americans and the Homeland.
It may be only a matter of time before al-Qa'ida or another group attempts to use chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear weapons (CBRN).
Al-Qa'ida is only one facet of the threat from a broader Sunni jihadist movement.
The Iraq conflict, while not a cause of extremism, has become a cause for extremists.
We know from experience that al-Qa'ida is a patient, persistent, imaginative, adaptive and dangerous opponent. But it is vulnerable and we and other allies have hit it hard.
Jihadist religious leaders preach millennial aberrational visions of a fight for Islam's survival. Sometimes they argue that the struggle justifies the indiscriminate killing of civilians, even with chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear weapons.
Our pursuit of al-Qa'ida and its most senior leaders, including Bin Ladin and his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri is intense. However, their capture alone would not be enough to eliminate the terrorist threat to the US Homeland or US interests overseas. Often influenced by al-Qa'ida's ideology, members of a broader movement have an ability to plan and conduct operations. We saw this last March in the railway attacks in Madrid conducted by local Sunni extremists. Other regional groups--connected to al-Qa'ida or acting on their own--also continue to pose a significant threat.
In Pakistan, terrorist elements remain committed to attacking US targets. In Saudi Arabia, remnants of the Saudi al-Qa'ida network continue to attack US interests in the region.
In Central Asia, the Islamic Jihad Group (IJG), a splinter group of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, has become a more virulent threat to US interests and local governments. Last spring the group used female operatives in a series of bombings in Uzbekistan.
In Southeast Asia, the Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) continues to pose a threat to US and Western interests in Indonesia and the Philippines, where JI is colluding with the Abu Sayyaf Group and possibly the MILF.
In Europe, Islamic extremists continue to plan and cause attacks against US and local interests, some that may cause significant casualties. In 2004 British authorities dismantled an al-Qa'ida cell and an extremist brutally killed a prominent Dutch citizen in the Netherlands.
Islamic extremists are exploiting the Iraqi conflict to recruit new anti-US jihadists.
These jihadists who survive will leave Iraq experienced in and focused on acts of urban terrorism. They represent a potential pool of contacts to build transnational terrorist cells, groups, and networks in Saudi Arabia, Jordan and other countries.
Zarqawi has sought to bring about the final victory of Islam over the West, and he hopes to establish a safe haven in Iraq from which his group could operate against "infidel" Western nations and "apostate" Muslim governments.
Other terrorist groups spanning the globe also pose persistent and serious threats to US and Western interests.
Hizballah's main focus remains Israel, but it could conduct lethal attacks against US interests quickly upon a decision to do so.
Palestinian terrorist organizations have apparently refrained from directly targeting US or Western interests in their opposition to Middle East peace initiatives, but pose an ongoing risk to US citizens who could be killed or wounded in attacks intended to strike Israeli interests.
Extremist groups in Latin America are still a concern, with the FARC--the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia--possessing the greatest capability and the clearest intent to threaten US interests in the region.
Horn of Africa, the Sahel, the Mahgreb, the Levant, and the Gulf States are all areas where "pop up" terrorist activity can be expected.
. . .
POTENTIAL AREAS FOR INSTABILITY
... [I]n the MIDDLE EAST, the election of Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas, nevertheless, marks an important step and Abbas has made it clear that negotiating a peace deal with Israel is a high priority. There nevertheless are hurdles ahead.
Redlines must be resolved while Palestinian leaders try to rebuild damaged PA infrastructure and governing institutions, especially the security forces, the legislature, and the judiciary.
Terrorist groups, some of who benefit from funding from outside sources, could step up attacks to derail peace and progress.
In AFRICA, chronic instability will continue to hamper counterterrorism efforts and pose heavy humanitarian and peacekeeping burdens.
In Nigeria, the military is struggling to contain militia groups in the oil-producing south and ethnic violence that frequently erupts throughout the country. Extremist groups are emerging from the country's Muslim population of about 65 million.
In Sudan, the peace deal signed in January will result in de facto southern autonomy and may inspire rebels in provinces such as Darfur to press harder for a greater share of resources and power. Opportunities exist for Islamic extremists to reassert themselves in the North unless the central government stays unified.
Unresolved disputes in the Horn of Africa--Africa's gateway to the Middle East--create vulnerability to foreign terrorist and extremist groups. Ethiopia and Eritrea still have a contested border, and armed factions in Somalia indicate they will fight the authority of a new transitional government.
In LATIN AMERICA, the region is entering a major electoral cycle in 2006, when Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Mexico, Nicaragua, Peru, and Venezuela hold presidential elections. Several key countries in the hemisphere are potential flashpoints in 2005.
In Venezuela, Chavez is consolidating his power by using technically legal tactics to target his opponents and meddling in the region, supported by Castro.
In Colombia, progress against counternarcotics and terrorism under President Uribe's successful leadership, may be affected by the election.
The outlook is very cloudy for legitimate, timely elections in November 2005 in Haiti--even with substantial international support.
Campaigning for the 2006 presidential election in Mexico is likely to stall progress on fiscal, labor, and energy reforms.
In Cuba, Castro's hold on power remains firm, but a bad fall last October has rekindled speculation about his declining health and succession scenarios.
In SOUTHEAST ASIA, three countries bear close watching.
In Indonesia, President Yudhoyono has moved swiftly to crackdown on corruption. Reinvigorating the economy, burdened by the costs of recovery in tsunami-damaged areas, will likely be affected by continuing deep-seated ethnic and political turmoil exploitable by terrorists.
In the Philippines, Manila is struggling with prolonged Islamic and Communist rebellions. The presence of Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) terrorists seeking safe haven and training bases adds volatility and capability to terrorist groups already in place. Thailand is plagued with an increasingly volatile Muslim separatist threat in its southeastern provinces, and the risk of escalation remains high.
NOTE:
In addition to Goss, the February 16 hearings included testimony from Mr. Robert S. Mueller, III Director, Federal Bureau of Investigation; Vice Admiral Lowell E. Jacoby, Director, Defense Intelligence Agency; Admiral James Loy, Deputy Secretary, Department of Homeland Security; Mr. Thomas Fingar, Assistant Secretary of State; Intelligence and Research. It is available online at http://intelligence.senate.gov/0502hrg/050216/witness.htm
These excerpts were taken from http://www.cia.gov/cia/public_affairs/speeches/2004/Goss_testimony_02162005.html
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