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CONTENTS:

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK:

1. World
2. Africa
3. Americas
4. Asia Pacific
5. Europe
6. Middle East
7. South Asia
8. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare
9. Finance
10 Human Rights
11. Law and Legal Issues
12. Transportation
13. Weapons of Mass Destruction
14. Recently Published

FEATURE ARTICLE:
Disaster Reduction

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK

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1. World

The highly pathogenic H5N1 strain of avian influenza has been confirmed among domestic birds in Turkey and Romania. Many countries are taking control measures and are investing in vaccine. As yet, this strain does not spread readily from human to human.
http://www.who.int/csr/don/2005_10_13/en/index.html

The death toll from the earthquake centered in Kashmir is approaching 40,000. More than 60,000 have been injured and the number of homeless exceeds 3.3 million. With the first snows arriving in the remote, mountainous region, international assistance is needed immediately. For donations, contact:
Disasters Emergency Committee http://www.dec.org.uk
Kashmir International Relief Fund http://www.kirf.org
Red Cross/ Red Crescent http://www.icrc.org
UNHCR http://www.unicef.org.uk
UNICEF http://www.unicef.org
World Food Program http://www.wfp.org

Most of these organizations also contribute to other ongoing emergencies, including the Amazon basin drought, the Guatemala landslides, and the aftermath of this season's hurricanes.

On 12 October, the International Day for Disaster Reduction, the UN University called for the recognition of those displaced by gradual environmental change, which is creating a new type of "refugee" that needs to be addressed within international frameworks. They project up to 50 million environmental refugees within five years time.

Today is World Food Day. So far this year, more than 6 million people have died from chronic hunger and related disease - more than the number who die of HIV/AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis combined.
http://www.wfp.org/

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2. Africa

Botswana has denied reports they are forcibly removing San bushmen from the Kalahari.
http://www.survival-international.org/news.php?id=1083

Eritrea has placed new limits on the movement of UN peacekeeping operations along their border with Ethiopia, including flight restrictions and limits to overnight patrols. The UN warns that with restrictions on night patrols, they may be unable to detect a military build-up.

In Ivory Coast, the UN Security Council has agreed to delay elections until October 2006 at the latest. Meanwhile, the International Crisis Group warns that "Halfway Measures Will Not Suffice":

Liberians went to the polls on Tuesday to elect a president and parliament, replacing the transitional government put in place at the end of the civil war. The election was peaceful and orderly. Due to the country's infrastructure challenges, final results will take several days.

Malawi's President Bingu wa Mutharika has declared a national disaster due to the worsening food shortage. He had previously denied that people were dying of hunger.

Morocco has begun repatriating illegal migrants expelled or stopped from entering the Spanish enclaves of Melilla and Cueta. Human Rights Watch has called for an independent investigation of alleged violence against would-be immigrants.
http://hrw.org/english/docs/2005/10/13/spain11866.htm
A UN special representative for the region warns that this situation will only worsen if a consolidated effort to address new job creation is not undertaken.
http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=16163

As Republic of Congo's former Prime Minister Bernard Kolelas returned to Brazzaville to bury his wife, his Ninja rebel supporters and police clashed, killing at least four people and injuring many more. Kolelas and his wife had been living in exile. He had been ousted during the civil war and sentenced to death in absentia for war crimes.

South Africa issued its first forced expropriation order, on Hannes Visser, after he and the Land Claims Commission cold not reach agreement on the value of the property, Visser has a 21-day appeal period.

Insecurity in Sudan's Darfur region continues at high levels. Members of a dissident faction of the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) released some of the African Union peacekeepers they had taken hostage last week, but others were killed. Most humanitarian operations have been suspended for security reasons, and non-essential staff was removed. Armed clashes between government forces and the Sudanese Liberation Army (SLA), as well as bandit attacks, contributed to this decision.

Sudan is permitting access to Ugandan troops pursuing Lord's Liberation Army (LRA) rebels. This follows the International Criminal Court indictment, last week, of five LRA leaders. Sudan's government no longer officially supports the LRA.

Uganda's former president and independence leader Milton Obote has died, age 80.

Zanzibar is experiencing significant levels of pre-election violence. Ahead of the 30 October vote, opposition Civic United Front (CUF) supporters clashed with police, injuring at least 17 CUF supporters, including 5 bullet wounds.

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3. Americas

In Argentina, a prison riot over rejection of longer visiting hours for Mothers' Day led to a fire in which at least 17 prisoners were killed.

Brazil declared part of the Amazon river a disaster area after drought reduced water levels to a point they could no longer be navigated. The armed forces are delivering supplies to communities whose only means of transport had been by boat.

Colombian senator German Vargas escaped assassination during a bomb attack attributed to Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). Nine people were injured. Another lawmaker, Eleonora Pineda, accused the army of covering up their murder of her brother by disguising him as a rebel killed in combat.

Ecuador's former President Lucio Gutierrez returned from exile in Colombia, where he had been granted amnesty. Gutierrez was ousted by congress after street protests in April, and he has not accepted the government put in place thereafter. On his arrival from Colombia, Gutierrez was arrested on charges of threatening national security.

Haiti's elections, due on 20 November, are likely to be postponed in the face of logistical problems and lack of the necessary monies.

Nicaragua's President Enrique Bolanos has agreed with the opposition Sandanista leader Daniel Ortega (in control of congress) to delay constitutional reforms that would weaken presidential power.

In the US, a new National Clandestine Service (NCS) has been created under the Central Intelligence Agency, putting CIA Director Porter Goss in charge of all human espionage overseas. This cross-agency initiative under the Director of National Intelligence, John Negroponte, is part of a broader intelligence restructuring.
http://www.cia.gov/cia/public_affairs/press_release/2005/pr10132005.html
http://www.dni.gov/release_letter_101305.html

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence also released a letter purportedly written by al Qaeda number two, Ayman al Zawahiri, to the head of al Qaeda in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. Al Qaeda called the letter a fake, and several analysts support their contention.
http://www.dni.gov/release_letter_101105.html

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez announced that the New Tribes Mission will be expelled, because the US group was spying for the CIA. The missionaries deny the allegation and hopes to be allowed to stay.

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4. Asia Pacific

Australian Prime Minister Howard plans to raise staff at the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO) from 980 to 1,860 over five years in order to address threats of domestic terrorism.

Chinese political activist Lu Banglie was severely beaten by a crowd of some 30 unidentified men who apparently objected to his anticorruption campaign and efforts to remove the elected chief who is accused of embezzlement and remains in power.

Indonesian rebels with the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) have proceeded with the second round of disarmament in accordance with the peace agreement signed in August. Marking the third anniversary of the 12 October 2002 Bali bombings that killed more than 200 people, protestors attempted to break into the prison housing three convicted bombers, insisting they should be immediately executed.

Kyrgyzstan has agreed to permit the US to maintain the Manas airbase in Bishkek, used to launch missions in Afghanistan. The base is very important now that Uzbekistan has told the US to leave by yearend. US Secretary of State Rice completed the agreement, but human rights groups and opposition politicians pointed to her lack of direct criticism of President Nazarbayev as demonstrating that the US put its base and need for oil ahead of human rights and democracy.

Thai General Pallop Pinmanee said that some of the insurgents responsible for violence in the south had been trained in Libya and in turn had applied those lessons to local recruits. The defense minister said there is no evidence that Thai insurgents have been trained abroad.

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5. Europe

Germans two largest political parties, the Social Democrats (SPD) and Christian Democrats (CDU) have agreed to a "grand coalition" under which conservative CDU leader Angela Merkel will be chancellor and the SPD will have a majority of ministry positions. In the Bundestag, the CDU holds four more seats than the SPD.

Ireland's and Britain's Prime Ministers met to discuss ways to restore devolution in Northern Ireland, but loyalist violence threatens the reestablishment of political institutions.

In the Netherlands, police arrested six men and a woman in a series of anti-terrorism raids connected with the Hofstad group, a militant Islamic network.

Russian militants from Chechnya are believed responsible for mass raids on government and police buildings in Nalchik, the capital of Kabardino-Balkaria province in the north Caucasus. The assault was launched by up to 200 men armed with rocket launchers. A group called Yarmuk Jamaat, part of the Caucasus Front, claimed responsibility, but it is likely that the attack was coordinated with local militants. A day after this attack, Russian forces stormed rebel strongholds, freeing hostages and killing more than ten rebels. At the end of two days of fighting, some 91 attackers had been killed, as well as 24 members of the security forces and 12 civilians. Dozens of people were injured, and 36 rebels were arrested.

British Prime Minister Tony Blair said that there are "compelling" reasons for the laws proposed in the newly published Terrorism Bill. Provisions include new offences related to encouraging or preparing terrorist acts, disseminating terrorist publications, giving or receiving terrorist training, and nuclear terrorism. It proposes new trial procedures, amends proscription of organizations, increases penalties, and increases police and investigatory powers by extending detention from 14 days to 3 months.
http://www.number10.gov.uk/output/Page8302.asp
http://www.number10.gov.uk/output/Page306.asp
http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/security/terrorism-and-the-law/
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200506/cmbills/055/2006055.htm

The UK currently bans 40 international terrorist organizations under the Terrorism Act 2000 and 14 previously banned in Northern Ireland. Last week, Parliament agreed to add 15 more groups to this list:

Of ten men arrested last week under the Terrorism Act, five were released to the Immigration Service and five others were released with no charge.

Britain's Secret Intelligence Service (SIS, MI6) has launched an official website.
http://www.mi6.gov.uk/

In Northern Ireland, police have issued photographs from video footage of suspected rioters in connection with the 10 September Orange Parade in which police were attacked by armed loyalists using live rounds and small bombs. New police numbers show that loyalists were responsible for 57 paramilitary-style shootings, compared to 9 by republicans, and that loyalists were also responsible for twice as many assaults as republicans.
http://www.psni.police.uk

The Progressive Unionist Party (PUP) says it will maintain its links with the Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF). The UVF is linked to the Red Hand Commando and was blamed by the Independent Monitoring Commission (IMC) for five murders and 15 attempted murders in their feud with the Loyalist Volunteer Force (LVF).

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6. Middle East

Gaza's border was briefly opened to allow Palestinian pilgrims to travel to Mecca. Meanwhile, talks to resolve security and customs arrangements at the Gaza-Egypt border crossing are underway between senior Israeli and Palestinian officials. Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei says that a Palestinian ministerial inquiry into Yasser Arafat's death was inconclusive, and the case would remain open in case there is a future opportunity to determine the cause of death of the long-time leader.

In Iran, near the border with Iraq, two explosions were set off at a shopping center. The bombs killed at least four people. Iran suggested the UK was behind the attack, a claim strongly denied by British officials.

Iraq's constitutional referendum attracted more than 60 percent of voters and was relatively peaceful. The final result will be announced on 24 October. Although there were no large-scale attacks during the vote, the week was far from peaceful, including a number of suicide attacks and bombings that killed dozens of people, including attacks in Talafar, which had been only recently the subject of a major US anti-insurgent campaign.

Lebanon has formally requested that the UN extend the investigation into the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri until 15 December, in order to support Lebanon's internal judicial inquiry.

Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah, in his first television interview since taking the throne, discussed the defeat of al Qaeda and extremism, the Islamic faith, and other issues with US journalist Barbara Walters.
http://abcnews.go.com/2020/International/story?id=1214706&page=1

Syria's interior minister, Ghazi Kanaan, committed suicide. The former intelligence chief for Syria in Lebanon had been questioned over the Hariri assassination. Although questions were raised over the circumstances of his death, an official inquiry has determined it was a suicide. Note this transcript of his final interview:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/low/middle_east/4335698.stm

In the West Bank, gunmen with the al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades shot dead three Israelis near a settlement, and wounded four.

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7. South Asia

Afghanistan experienced a number of serious incidents last week. On Monday, at least five people died in two suicide bombings in Kandahar. 18 police officers were killed in a rebel ambush as they traveled in Helmand. On Friday, the leading Muslim cleric and government supporter Mullah Maulvi Ahmed Khan was killed when a remote-controlled bomb was detonated in his mosque. Another 16 people were injured at the start of afternoon prayers. The US-led coalition base in Kandahar was the scene of an explosion in Kandahar that destroyed eight fuel tankers and injured two people. Also in Kandahar, a series of attacks killed five Afghan aid workers and six policemen. Following last week's arrest of Latifullah Hakimi, the Taleban have appointed three new media spokesmen.

In Indian-administered Kashmir, a female has for the first time carried out a suicide attack. The bomb, attributed to Jaish-e Mohammad, apparently detonated before reaching its target (the army), and there were no injuries.

In Kashmir, the center of the massive earthquake, the governments of Pakistan and India are cooperating on relief efforts. Separatist groups have offered significant levels of aid, a tactic that could boost their cause. There are reports that militant training camps have been destroyed, but there is little information as yet regarding the impact of the disaster on militant groups, but clashes have continued. An Indian military spokesman said 29 militants had been killed in the past week, most trying to cross the Line of Control soon after the earthquake struck. There was also a militant assault in which two soldiers were shot dead and six injured.

Nepal is experiencing a "grave human rights crisis" according to a new report from the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights. Violations include summary executions, the killing of civilians, abductions, torture, extortion, forced recruitment, the bombing of civilian buildings, abduction and conscription of children, violence against women and minorities and other groups.
http://www.un.org/Docs/journal/asp/ws.asp?m=A/60/359
King Gyanendra has announced parliamentary elections will be held by April 2007.

In Sri Lanka, Norwegian peace envoy Major General Trond Furuhovde said both the Sri Lankan government and the Tamil Tigers are engaged in "subversive warfare", threatening both the ceasefire agreement and the country's security.
http://www.colombopage.com/archive/October15134231JV.html

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8. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare

Nordea, a Swiss internet bank, briefly shut down its website after finding a new phishing scam was targeting its one-time password security system.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2005/10/12/outlaw_phishing/

Lloyds TSB launched a trial of a two-tier authentication system using devices that generate new codes every 30 seconds in addition to the user ID and password.
http://www.mediacentre.lloydstsb.com/media/docs/2005/oct/access_device.pdf

The UK Association of Payment Clearing Services attributed a 29 percent fall in debit and credit card fraud to the introduction of chip and pin cards.
http://www.apacs.org.uk/

Nigeria's Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) has teamed up with Microsoft to crack down on advance fee frauds sent by email.
http://www.efccnigeria.org/
http://www.microsoft.com/africa/press/fastfacts.mspx

Microsoft's October security update included nine patches, three fixing critical vulnerabilities.

CSO magazine has published "The Global State of Information Security 2005".
http://www.csoonline.com/read/100105/survey.html

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9. Finance

Sean Garland, president of the Irish Worker's Party, and seven other men, has been charged with conspiring with North Korea to circulate counterfeit US currency. This is the latest action in an investigation of North Korean counterfeiting and other criminal activities.
http://www.usdoj.gov/usao/dc/Press_Releases/2005_Archives/Oct_2005/05370.html

The UN Security Council has authorized re-establishment of the Committee on Somalia, to continue investigations into the increasing violations of the arms embargo against Somalia, which shows the high level of political tensions between the transitional government and the opposition, and threatens widespread violence in the center and south. A report within 90 days will provide information on " how funds are raised in the local financial, maritime and other sectors for weapons purchases and how transportation is arranged through seaports, airports and other facilities".
http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2005/sc8523.doc.htm

Deutsche Bank has reached agreement with US regulators regarding anti-money laundering and Bank Secrecy Act requirements to address deficiencies in its procedures, including those related to reporting currency transactions.

The US list of designated Foreign Terrorist Organizations now numbers 42, following the addition of the Moroccan Islamic Combatant Group.
http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2005/54677.htm

The US Treasury's Office of Inspector General released an audit report regarding registration of money services businesses (MSBs). Only some 22,000 MSBs have registered, two laws after the requirement went into effect, of some 122,000 locations (excluding postal services). Although not all MSBs are required to register, the report says that most non-registration is due to a desire to avoid any government regulation. Other reasons include misunderstanding the regulations, or being unable to implement them due to language or lack of financial proficiency. In addition, there has been limited oversight and no enforcement actions, which could lead MSBs to perceive the rule as unimportant. The audit recommends a number of improvements in policies and processes.
http://www.treas.gov/inspector-general/audit-reports/2005/oig05050.pdf

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10. Human Rights

The World Economic and Social Survey 2005 focuses on Financing for Development. It emphasizes the need to focus on the quality of aid, which too often is used to pay off debt, for reconstruction, or crisis assistance. Instead, fostering development should be the primary aim.
http://www.un.org/esa/policy/wess/

The UN Population Fund's new report, "The Promise of Equality: Gender Equity, Reproductive Health and the Millennium Development Goals" finds that 99 percent of maternal deaths are preventable, but a woman dies from pregnancy-related complications every minute. Investing in reproductive health and gender equality can support sustainable development and growth.
http://www.unfpa.org/news/news.cfm?ID=693

The Special Rapporteur of the UN Commission on Human Rights on the independence of judges and lawyers, Leandro Despouy, reported to the General Assembly that, "Proposed anti-terror laws in the United Kingdom might undermine human rights, United States military commissions on terror suspects violate the right to a fair trial, and Iraq?s special tribunal breaks international standards and should be replaced by a United Nations-backed independent court".
http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=16155

India's new Right to Information Law has come into force, granting new rights to access government agency publications and private sector material held by government institutions.
http://www.indiatogether.org/rti/

Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International released a joint report, "The Rest of Their Lives: Life without Parole for Child Offenders in the United States". There are more than 2,000 people serving life without parole for crimes committed before they were 18: a majority sentenced thus for their first criminal conviction. They way that such prisoners must have access to parole processes.
http://web.amnesty.org/library/index/engamr511602005
http://www.hrw.org/english/docs/2005/10/12/usdom11835.htm

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11. Law and Legal Issues

Abbas Boutrab, an Algerian suspected of links with al Qaeda, has been acquitted in a Belfast, Northern Ireland, court of using a false passport. The trial will now proceed to review terrorism-related charges, denying a defense motion to dismiss all charges because the evidence was too uncertain.

Mohammed Bouyeri, already sentenced to life in prison for the murder of Dutch filmmaker Theo van Gogh, will now stand trial for belonging to a terrorist group, the Hofstad network. The Dutch court ruled that even without an additional sentence, the trial was an appropriate response to his actions.

Essam el-Erian a leading member of the banned Muslim Brotherhood, and three colleagues have been freed on bail by an Egyptian prosecutor.

Zayead Hajaig has been sentenced in British court to one year in prison for using a false passport. He is wanted in the US on weapons and immigration charges connected with a security alert regarding pilot training.

"Hasan" has been arrested in Indonesia in connection with the recent attacks in Bali.

Heshamuddin Hesam, former head of Afghan intelligence, and his colleague Habibullah Jalalzoy, have been sentenced to terms of 12 and 9 years in prison, respectively. The Dutch court ruled the two men were guilty of torture and other crimes in Afghanistan in the 1980s.

Italian prosecutors have opened the trial of 45 police and medical staff accused of brutality against anti-globalization protestors during the 2001 G8 summit in Genoa. The chief prosecutor issued a report finding that police lied about the operation in which 92 people were injured.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4337486.stm

Yevgeni Khudyakov and Sergei Arakcheyev have been acquitted in a Russian military court of murdering Chechen civilians. Russia's Supreme Court had sent a previous acquittal back for retrial. Families of the victims will now take the case to the European Court of Human Rights, which is already examining other cases of torture, summary execution and other violations against Chechens.

Anders Fogh Rasmussen faces a lawsuit brought by a group of Danish citizens challenging his decision to join the invasion of Iraq.

Veselin Slijivancanin, Mile Mrksic and Miroslave Radic are on trial in the Hague in connection with the 1991 Vukovar hospital massacre, in Croatia.

Walid Muhammad Farhan Juwar al-Zubaydi ("The Barber") was arrested by US forces in Baghdad. He is believed to have helped alter the appearance of al Qaeda in Iraq members by changing their hair styles. Arrested at the same time, Ibrahim Muhammad Subhi Khayri al-Rihawi was accused of acting as a banker for al Qaeda in Iraq.

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12. Transportation

Somali pirates hijacked the MV Torgelow and held its crew of ten. It was carrying fuel and food to the MV Semlow, which had been released last week after it had been held for three months. Days later, six armed men hijacked a second UN-chartered ship, the MV Miltzow, as it unloaded more food aid. The Miltzow and its crew were freed after two days. The Kenyan government is investing whether members of Somalia's interim government are involved.

Meanwhile, the International Maritime Bureau continues to issue an alert regarding Somalia's east and northeast coast:
"Twenty two incidents have been reported since 15.03.05. Heavily armed pirates are now attacking ships further away from the coast. A recent incident took place 120 nm off the eastern coast. Ships are advised to keep as far away as possible from the Somali coast.
http://www.icc-ccs.org/prc/piracyreport.php

US federal officials said that the information that prompted an increased security alert for the New York subway system was likely a hoax. Security has been scaled back.

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13. Weapons of Mass Destruction

Pakistan reports that the earthquake did not damage the Kahuta nuclear weapons complex. The facility is located some 75 km from the epicenter.

Iran's nuclear plans may be unstoppable, and use of force by the US could backfire by inciting regional unrest and attacks, and providing an incentive for Iran to use a nuclear weapon. Instead, say Judith Yaphe and Charles Lutes from the National Defense University's Institute for National Strategic Studies, deterring use of weapons may be a better response.
http://www.ndu.edu/inss/mcnair/mcnair69/McNairPDF.pdf

The Kerr report regarding Iraq's prewar WMD programs finds that the White House disregarded intelligence projections:
"In an ironic twist, the policy community was receptive to technical intelligence (the weapons program), where the analysis was wrong, but apparently paid little attention to intelligence on cultural and political issues (post-Saddam Iraq), where the analysis was right". The declassified CIA-commissioned report was published by the National Security Archive of George Washington University.
http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/news/20051013/index.htm

A US Energy Department audit report finds "National Nuclear Security Administration Lags on Security Upgrades". The review covered the Nevada Test Site and other weapons facilities, and found that nearly 90 percent of security plans have not been implemented.
http://www.ig.doe.gov/igreports.htm#cal2005/pdf/ig-0705.pdf

ABC News hired ten graduate students in an undercover investigation of the security of nuclear reactors located at 25 universities. The television program "Prime Time" reported significant security breaches related to access control and other vulnerabilities. The universities point to the low levels of radioactive material used in the small reactors, and emphasize prior safety reviews and inherently safe designs. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission is investigating certain allegations.
http://abcnews.go.com/Primetime/LooseNukes/story?id=1206529&page=1
http://www.nrc.gov/highlight.html
http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2005/reactor.html
http://www.umd.edu/ourview/researchreactor.html
http://www.usatoday.com/life/television/news/2005-10-13-abc-news-interns_x.htm

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14. Recently Published

Jimmie Briggs, "Innocents Lost: When Child Soldiers Go to War", Basic

Harm de Blij, "Why Geography Matters: Three Challenges Facing America - Climate Change, the Rise of China and Global Terrorism", Oxford University Press

Jacques Leslie, "Deep Water: The Epic Struggle Over Dams, Displaced People, and the Environment", Farrar, Straus and Giroux

Nelofer Pazira, "A Bed of Red Flowers: In Search of My Afghanistan", Free Press

Tim Rood, "The Sea! The Sea!: The Shout of the Ten Thousand in the Modern Imagination", Duckworth Overlook

Anthony Shadid, "Night Draws near: Iraq's People in the Shadow of America's War", Holt

Stephan Wackwitz, transl. Stephen Lehmann, "An Invisible Country", Paul Dry

Stephen Walker, "Shockwave: Countdown to Hiroshima". Harper Collins

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FEATURE ARTICLE: Disaster Reduction

At a time when the number and scale of disasters is rising, we are marking the International Day for Disaster Reduction (12 October) with this article to explain its concept and goals. If this topic is of interest, you may want to email to request our Special Report on this topic.

The first World Conference on Disaster Reduction took place in Yokohama in May 1994. In the ten years that followed there were approximately 7,100 disasters that killed more than 300,000 people and caused insurance losses of more than $800 billion. From 1994 to 1998 average disasters reported stood at 428 per year. Between 1999 and 2003, this figure increased to an average of 707 per year.

In 2004 alone there were around 650 natural disasters that have claimed more than 315,000 lives. The death toll in 2003 was 77,000; triple that of 2002. Record insurance losses in 2004 will exceed $40 billion and economic loss in excess of $130 billion. In this single year, Europe suffered its worst floods in centuries and experienced record heat waves. In fact, the ten hottest years have all occurred since 1990. Japan had ten typhoons, the worst season ever. Four of the ten greatest US hurricane losses occurred in 2004, all in the space of a month. Droughts in Australia led to water rationing and drastic revision of water management plans.

2005 is on course to exceed these figures. The number of terrorist attacks through August has almost matched the record set in 2004. Hurricane Katrina, one of the first in a season that is already anticipated to have more than usual, is likely to exceed the previous record set by Hurricane Andrew for insured losses. In addition, we have seen:

The Red Cross warns that the frequency and cost of natural disasters are likely to increase further because of environmental degradation, climate change, population growth (especially in cities) and globalization. Overall, the annual death toll has fallen in the last decade but the number of people affected had increased by more than 40 percent. The World Health Organization estimates that 150,000 people die annually as the result of climate change. Researchers writing in Nature have speculated on the litigation they posit could follow these findings.

In modern times the focus of disasters has been on short-term response to emergencies. Advances in civil defense and disaster management, in all their flavors, meant that the response to an event could be prompt and effective. However, better responses to increased threats have not helped to reduce their impact. Repeated losses have forced the world to take a fresh look at the factors that contribute to natural hazard risk and to investigate how this knowledge can help reduce the threat of disasters.

The 1990s became the International Decade for Disaster Reduction. Based on collaborative work systematically organized and coordinated by a group of United Nations agencies, understanding of natural disasters has increased dramatically.

We now understand that disasters have changed the course of history and have grave consequences for individuals around the world. Instead of responding to disasters after they have taken place we must build resilient communities.

Globalization has built a world that is highly interdependent. A risk in one region can have often unanticipated consequences at the opposite ends of the earth. The Indian Ocean tsunami rippled through financial networks, outsourcing, shipping, and many other aspects of international operations and the economy.

Hydrometeorological events like the tsunami generate the majority of disastrous events. Other natural hazards include earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides, and extreme temperatures. These hazards turn into disasters only when they interact with vulnerabilities.

Consider the impact of urbanization and the growth of megacities (those with populations in excess of ten million). Half of the world's population lives in cities and nearly a tenth, more than 280 million people, in megacities. Skyscrapers, views of the water, and economic concentration make them appealing domiciles and attractive terrorist targets. High population densities also increase the likelihood of massive casualties.

This is only one example of the range of increasing vulnerabilities that face a world undergoing rapid changes. The World Conference on Disaster Reduction that met in Kobe, Hyogo, Japan in January considered " changing demographic, technological and socio-economic conditions, unplanned urbanization, development within high-risk zones, under-development, environmental degradation, climate variability, climate change, geological hazards, competition for scarce resources, and the impact of epidemics such as HIV/AIDS...".

Disaster risk is achieved when it is integrated with policies and plans for good governance, sustainable development, poverty reduction, and other risk reduction strategies. Building local capacity is the base, but because the risks are so closely inter-related, all efforts must be supported through collaborative local, regional and international partnerships.

Natural disaster reduction requires an integrated approach that takes into account social, environmental, economic and political factors. It involves five components: Commitment, Risk Analysis, Reduction, Preparedness, and Knowledge.

From community action to international bodies, shared commitment to disaster reduction is essential. As part of good governance, disaster reduction incorporates policy development; legislation and codes; and organizational development.

Risk Identification and Impact Analysis requires identification of vulnerabilities and hazards and the level of risk they present.

Hazards are events and activities that can injure, kill, damage or disrupt. They include latent conditions such as geological, hydrometeorological and biological events that come from nature. Other hazards may be manmade, such as environmental degradation or technological phenomenon. Their location, intensity, frequency and likelihood are all characteristics for evaluation. Multiple hazards must also be considered.

Vulnerabilities are factors that increase susceptibility to a given hazard. Physical, social, economic and environmental factors can present vulnerability when they are weak or capability (mitigation impact) when they are strong.

Risk can be understood as a combination of hazards and vulnerabilities analyzed in a way that measures the probability of harm. In the global economy this must take into account multiple risk issues and scenarios and the dynamic changes that are underway, requiring frequent monitoring and assessment. Risk assessment evaluates the hazards, the vulnerabilities, and the capacity of the systems to address the level of risk. Disaster risk reduction uses the risk analysis to identify the best ways to prevent or limit the adverse impacts of hazards and vulnerabilities.

Measures to reduce disaster risk include:

Disaster risk reduction also demands readiness to deal with unexpected events, sharing knowledge gained from disasters, and communicating the knowledge gained throughout the international community of individuals and their institutions.

Hazards will always be with us. An essential component of disaster risk reduction lies in the ability to address the occurrences to minimize harm. Preparedness requires advance planning to provide early warnings of events. Timely warning and the ability to evacuate people to a temporary location can save lives. Early warning systems also allow individuals to prepare for their own response, including such simple measures as maintaining a disaster supply kit.

Knowledge is gained through both research and experience. Analysis of adverse events can identify new or unanticipated vulnerabilities and address how effective mitigation efforts were. Capturing and disseminating knowledge helps build communities of interest that can better work to reduce disaster risk worldwide.

The responsibility doesn't end with analyzing data or managing information. It must be translated into education, training and community activities that spread knowledge to a wider population. Communication is essential to raise awareness and help change behavior. For example, awareness of hurricane threats can motivate communities to alter building codes to reduce the use of vulnerable locations.

Insurance companies are in an excellent position to evaluate risk reduction measures, educate their policyholders, and provide incentives through rates and types of coverage that encourage the desired lower risk behaviors.

It is obvious that reducing the impact of a disaster is less expensive than unleashed natural disaster. Estimates suggest that every dollar spent on preventing disaster is worth two spent on recovery. However, large-scale disasters are so rare that the initiative immediately following an event is not sustained or does not go beyond the site of the last occurrence. Having an effective tsunami alert system in the Pacific but nothing at all in the Indian Ocean is a case in point.

Standard appraisals and assessments consider only a project- or contract- lifespan of perhaps one generation. Instead of this approach, natural hazards need to be assessed in a broader context with a longer viewpoint.

The ProVention Consortium suggests a number of practices that can help reap maximum benefits:

They further describe the use of economic appraisal to assess cost efficiency of proposed mitigation measures and ensure the economic perspectives of natural hazard risks are adequately explored, thereby raising awareness of forms and levels of the hazards and helping make the case for funding appropriate efforts.

Existing tools can be used for economic assessments, but should include six factors:

They emphasize the complexity of risk reduction measures and their potential to create new hazards, "implying that avoidable and unavoidable losses have to be distinguished. This is a potentially complex task". These considerations also need to be put in context of possible weaknesses in the broader context, where improvements may be necessary in order to achieve benefits from disaster reduction.

The escalation of disasters over the past decade and, in particular, the dramatic events of 2004, have forced this issue to the forefront of public policy makers, private industry, and individuals around the world. There is increasing evidence that mitigation pays, and that urgent actions are needed to help reduce the impact of the future events. They will happen in the near future, and with increasing impacts.

Further Reading:

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