1. Global Terrorism Monitor
2. Political Risk Monitor
3. AML/CFT Monitor
4. Emerging Threat Monitor
5. Critical Infrastructure Monitor
6. Disaster Reduction Monitor
7. Recommended Reading
8. Asset Management Network News
1. Global Terrorism Monitor
The Global Terrorism Monitor is a monthly 16-page print publication. News highlights from the past week are provided in this free email update, but detailed analysis, background information and source documents are only available to subscribers. For subscription information, email
info@tamni.com.
GTM Africa
Conflict in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo has interfered with delivery of rations and payments due former rebels being trained and integrated into the national army. Last week, this led to the death from hunger of six former rebels at their training camp. They are not alone: 1,200 people die each day due to the aftereffects of the war. Meanwhile, other Mai-Mai militiamen continue to operate, as illustrated in these two articles:
http://www.globalterrorismmonitor.com/2006/02/GTM1901.shtml
http://www.globalterrorismmonitor.com/2006/02/GTM1902.shtml
The Niger Delta conflict has reached a new plateau. On Wednesday, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) condemned an attack in which a military helicopter gunship fired barges believed used for oil bunkering, injuring fishermen and other civilians in the area. The barges and ten houses were burned down and at least 30 people, mostly fishermen and other civilians, were killed. Responding to this and a second attack, MEND's Major General Godswill Tamuno said the group had declared operation "Dark February" to wage total war against foreign oil interests. On Friday, the army struck oil barges for a second time, and exchanged fire with MEND militants, causing additional civilian casualties. On Saturday, MEND kidnapped three Americans, two Thais, two Egyptians, a Briton and a Filipino working on a Shell pipelaying barge, and set Shell's Forcados export terminal on fire. Two soldiers were injured.
http://www.vanguardngr.com/articles/2002/headline/f116022006.html
http://www.vanguardngr.com/articles/2002/headline/f117022006.html
GTM Americas
Caribbean Community (CARICOM) and UN Counter Terrorism Executive Directorate (CTED) representatives met last week to review national and regional initiatives regarding narco-trafficking, illegal arms trafficking and terrorist financing.
http://www.caricom.org/jsp/pressreleases/pres45_06.jsp
Canadian telecommunications engineer Maher Arar's lawsuit against US officials responsible for his extraordinary rendition to Syria, where he was tortured, was dismissed. US District Court judge David Trager ruled that he could not review the case because it was a question of national security, and had the potential of harming relations with Canada if secrecy was not preserved. As demonstrated through a Canadian inquiry, Arar had no ties to terrorism, and the case will be appealed.
http://www.ccr-ny.org/v2/reports/report.asp?ObjID=r1AsHgY6Ly&Content=712
http://www.maherarar.ca/
http://www.cbc.ca/news/background/arar/
Colombia's Northern Bloc paramilitaries of the United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC) are believed responsible for mass graves discovered on the Caribbean Coast. The 21 victims were killed between 2002 and 2004. The AUC is in the process of demobilizing under a controversial peace agreement that would pardon many accused of crimes such as this. The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) are suspected in the death of six police officers on Wednesday. The government is launched bombing raids against the guerillas, with unknown levels of casualties. The fighting is connected with coca eradication efforts: FARC is largely financed through the drugs trade.
The US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) office in Puerto Rico reports they foiled a terrorist plot connected with the pro-independence Ejercito Popular Boricua, a/k/a Los Macheteros.
http://sanjuan.fbi.gov/pressrel/2006/sj021306.htm
http://sanjuan.fbi.gov/pressrel/2006/sj021006.htm
The United States has rejected an independent UN investigation regarding indefinite detentions at Guantanamo Bay. The UN's 18-month study recommended that terrorism suspects be detained in accordance with relevant international law and, therefore, all detainees should be brought to trial or released without further delay. They also called for full and unrestricted access to detainees, and an end to ill treatment including practices that amount to torture.
Full report:
http://www.ohchr.org/english/bodies/chr/docs/62chr/E.CN.4.2006.120_.pdf
Press announcement:
http://www.unhchr.ch/huricane/huricane.nsf/view01/52E94FB9CBC7DA10C1257117003517B3?opendocument
White House response
http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2006/02/20060216-1.html#e
On the same day that the UN report was released, British High Court Judge Collins ruled that Guantanamo detainees Bisher al-Rawi, Jamil al-Banna and Omar Deghayes could ask the Foreign Secretary and the Home Secretary to petition US authorities for their release. Mr. Justice Collins said that given allegations of torture, the Government obliged to act on their behalf, and that the US idea of torture "is not the same as ours and doesn't appear to coincide with that of most civilized countries". Other British government officials also called for closure of the camp. The Archbishop of York called the US refusal to close the camp a reflection on "a society that is heading towards George Orwell's Animal Farm", and suggested the issue should be raised in international legal bodies.
Prisoner abuse raised its head again after further graphic images of Abu Ghraib were disclosed by Salon and shown on Australian television news show Dateline. Among the newly disclosed material is an internal report of the Army's Criminal Investigation Command that summarizes the material:
"A review of all the computer media submitted to this office revealed a total of 1,325 images of suspected detainee abuse, 93 video files of suspected detainee abuse, 660 images of adult pornography, 546 images of suspected dead Iraqi detainees, 29 images of soldiers in simulated sexual acts, 20 images of a soldier with a Swastika drawn between his eyes, 37 images of Military Working dogs being used in abuse of detainees and 125 images of questionable acts."
http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2006/02/16/abu_ghraib/
http://news.sbs.com.au/dateline/index.php?page=transcript&dte=2006-02-15&headlineid=1069
The US National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) maintains a database of 325,000 alleged terrorists. Read the details in this Washington Post report:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/02/14/AR2006021402125.html
US District Judge Leonie Brinkema continued jury selection for the death penalty hearing of al Qaeda member Zacarias Moussaoui. Moussaoui was barred from the courtroom during the rest of jury selection because he repeatedly disrupted the proceedings.
Denver Post writer Bruce Finley discusses the counterterrorism and homeland security roles of the Northern Command (Northcom) and the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD), both located at Peterson Air Force Base in Colorado, in his 3-part article:
http://www.denverpost.com/search/ci_3500277 http://www.denverpost.com/search/ci_3503161
http://www.denverpost.com/search/ci_3506769
GTM Asia Pacific
Indonesian police in Borneo arrested two people and took possession of about 3,000 detonators and fuses. Little information has been released, but the island is a transit point for militants travelling between Indonesia and the southern Philippines.
Japanese police raided two companies in Tokyo suspected of illegally exporting freeze dryers to North Korea in violation of the Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Control Law. Such equipment can be used to process biological agents.
Philippines President Arroyo ordered a military manhunt in Mindanao to capture the two suspected masterminds of the 2002 Bali bombings, Dulmatin and Patek. They are believed hiding with other Jemaah Islamiah operatives training in the area. Training camps in the southern Philippines are connected with al-Qaeda affiliated Abu Sayyaf and rogue elements of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF).
President Arroyo also ordered an offensive against communist guerillas of the New People's Army (NPA). In addition to battling security forces, the NPA has targeted telecommunications infrastructure with explosive devices.
In the Philippines island of Jolo, an explosion near an army base used by US troops for counterterrorism exercises with local forces, has been the scene of an explosion that injured about 20 people, none from the US. Abu Sayyaf is suspected in the attack.
In southern Thailand a police officer at the head of a unit protecting teachers was ambushed and shot dead.
GTM Europe
The EU has developed a security and justice plan that will focus on the cities and regions that are in the front line of terrorism and crisis management.
http://europa.eu.int/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=COR/06/13&format=HTML&aged=0&language=EN&guiLanguage=en
Abdelkader Hakimi, Lahoussine El Haski and Mostafa Louanani were convicted in Belgian court of providing logistical support to a cell of the Moroccan Islamic Combatant Group (GICM), which is believed behind the Madrid train bombings and May 2003 attacks in Casablanca.
The German Constitutional Court ruled that a law allowing the military to shoot down civilian aircraft suspected of being hijacked for a terrorist attack infringed the rights to life and human dignity.
http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,2144,1904528,00.html
Spain is hosting the third International Victims of Terrorism Conference, where hundreds of survivors of attacks gather, share experiences, and find ways in which to deal with terrorism.
http://www.uch.ceu.es/principal/congreso_victimas/inicio.asp?op=informacion (in Spanish)
Hedi Ben Yousseff Boudhiba of Tunisia will be extradited from the UK to Spain, where he is wanted for alleged fundraising and operational support of a Spanish al Qaeda cell. He will appeal to the House of Lords.
In Istanbul, Turkey, a bomb left outside a supermarket exploded, injuring at least eleven people, one critically. No one has claimed responsibility but similar incidents in the past have been attributed to Kurdish separatists.
The British House of Commons passed legislation to ban the glorification of terrorism.
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200506/cmhansrd/cm060215/debindx/60215-x.htm
Prior to the vote, Lord Carlile of Berriew, the official overseer of UK terrorism laws, gave evidence to the UK Home Affairs Committee, including the claim that there could be up to 20 militant imams like Abu Hamza in the UK.
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200506/cmselect/cmhaff/uc910-ii/uc91002.htm
Lotfi Raissi, an Algerian pilot mistakenly accused of training the 11 September hijackers, spent five months in a high security prison but was never charged. The High Court has now ordered that he can proceed with a hearing to determine whether he is entitled to compensation for damage to his reputation, distress, and psychological harm. The Home Office had previously denied compensation.
Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer, Gordon Brown, speaking at the Royal United Services Institute in London, focused on terrorism, calling for tougher security measures and increased police powers.
http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/newsroom_and_speeches/speeches/chancellorexchequer/speech_chex_130206.cfm
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/terrorism/story/0,,1710371,00.html
Speaking at the Royal United Services Institute, Metropolitan Police anti-terrorism chief Peter Clarke called for radical changes in the investigation and prosecution of terrorism.
http://www.rusi.org/
Northern Ireland's 40-year-old terrorist group, the Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF) is dissolving, according to an Observer news report. They quote a UVF leader's explanation: "The UVF is going out of business because there is no need for it any more. The IRA's war is over, republicans have accepted the principle of consent. It doesn't make sense to go on. If we are not being attacked by armed republicanism any more, then there is no point in having a UVF." They do not plan to decommission.
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/politics/story/0,,1708038,00.html
GTM Middle East
In Gaza on Monday, Israeli troops shot and killed a woman as she walked near a border fence.
To understand the Iraqi insurgency, the International Crisis Group considers "In Their Own Words: Reading the Iraqi Insurgency":
"The U.S. and its allies seem to know little about the enemies they are fighting in Iraq, despite volumes of information on insurgent web sites, chat rooms, magazines and videos, which are a large part of their communication with each other and their constituents. Analysis of this undervalued communication suggests armed insurgency groups are less divided between nationalists and foreign jihadis than commonly reported, and are increasingly coordinated, confident and information-savvy. The better the U.S. understands their message and why it resonates, the better it will understand how to win hearts and minds. Coalition forces should take what the opposition says seriously, rather than dismiss it as propaganda, and adjust political strategy accordingly. An anti-insurgency approach based squarely on reducing the insurgents' perceived legitimacy - rather than, as at present, on military destruction and dislocation - is likelier to succeed."
http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?l=1&id=3953
This report was also featured on ABC Nightline
http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=1620371
A suicide bomber outside a Baghdad bank killed at least seven people and injured more than 30 on Monday. The next day a Shia tribal leader and seven farm workers were killed in a drive-by shooting in Balad, and an Iraqi major and his son were shot dead in Taji. On Wednesday a series of insurgent attacks killed four policemen (car bomb), two young girls and a young boy (bomb), two policemen (gun), as well as a number of other incidents. Thursday, a military patrol was the target of a car bomb that killed six Iraqi civilians and injured at least 11 in northern Baghdad. An Iraqi Army captain and his driver were shot dead in Kirkuk. On Friday, gunmen wearing Iraqi police commando uniforms kidnapped Ghalib Abd al-Hussein Kubba, a wealthy banker, and his son. They killed five bodyguards in order to reach the victims. Many other kidnappings took place during the week. On Saturday, three separate bombings in Baghdad killed six Iraqis and a US soldier, while a roadside bomb killed a civilian in Baquba.
A Jordanian military court has sentenced in absentia al Qaeda in Iraq leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi to death. Two additional death sentences had previously been imposed in connection with other cases. In this case he and eight other defendants were convicted of planning a chemical attack and sentenced to death. In addition to Zarqawi, three other defendants were condemned in absentia. Two other defendants were sentenced to three years in prison and two were acquitted.
United Arab Emirates Interior Minister Sheikh Seif bin Zayed al-Nahyan announced a crackdown on terrorism.
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=10&categ_id=2&article_id=22239
In the West Bank, Israeli raids led to the arrests of 18 suspected Palestinian militants on Monday and 19 on Tuesday. On Wednesday, a learning-disabled young man was shot dead as he flourished a broken toy gun before Israeli troops.
A Yemeni court has opened the trial of Mohammed Hamdi al-Ahdal and Ghaleb Abdullah al-Zayedi. They are accused of financing and providing other support to al Qaeda, planning attacks, and other charges, including the deaths of 19 Yemeni security officers.
http://www.yemeninfo.gov.ye/
GTM South Asia
In Afghanistan, US troops patrolling Uruzgan province in their armored vehicle on Monday, struck and detonated a homemade explosive, leaving four dead. Taleban militants in Nimroz province killed one policeman and injured four. The Taleban denied reports of injuries among their fighters.
President Karzai, meeting with Pakistan's President Musharraf, has provided a list of names, some with identifying information, that Afghanistan believes are Taleban living in Pakistan and responsible for attacks in Afghanistan.
Maoist rebels in India's Chhattisgarh state killed three tribesmen purportedly on suspicion of being police informers. Today, a powerful explosion in a Gujarat train station injured at least 14 people. Those responsible are not yet known.
In Indian-administered Kashmir, Harkat-ul-Mujahideen divisional commander Abu Mugaira was killed in a security force ambush at Bandipore on Monday. In another gunfight, Mohammad Yousuf Bhat ("Dilawar") and a second militant were killed. On Tuesday, Lashkar-e-Toiba militants exploded a grenade near a bus station, injuring six civilians. In the subsequent gunfight, three militants were killed.
13 February marks the 10th year of the Maoist insurgency in Nepal. Rebel leader Prachanda told a BBC interviewer that the only future for King Gyanendra is exile or trial. Rebels attacked an army convoy on Wednesday, killing three soldiers. The next day, armed forces launched a major offensive.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/4707040.stm (link to interview transcript)
http://www.kantipuronline.com/kolnews.php?&nid=65415
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/low/south_asia/4707058.stm
In Pakistan's Balochistan province, local militants killed three Chinese engineers and their Pakistani driver in a drive-by shooting. Several more gas pipeline have been blown up.
US-led forces operating in Afghanistan on 12 February fired into North Waziristan, Pakistan, killing two nomad women and injuring four children. The US claimed they had returned fire. Pakistani forces arrested two Uzbek militants, affiliated with the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, found at a checkpoint.
Pakistan physician Dr Ahmad Javed Khawaja, who had been arrested in late 2002 on suspicion of links to al Qaeda but released by the anti-terrorism court without charge after six months, was been killed in a drive-by shooting on Monday. The motive is as yet unknown.
The UN children's agency, UNICEF, has called on Sri Lanka's Tamil Tigers to stop child recruitment and release those already serving in the separatist group. Child soldier recruitment declined to an average of 43 per month in the last six months, but only 73 children were reunited with their families. During the past four years the average age of recruitment has increased from 14 to 16, but there have been 5,368 reported child recruitment cases.
http://www.unicef.org/infobycountry/sri_lanka.html
2. Political Risk Monitor
The Political Risk Monitor is a monthly 16-page print publication. News highlights from the past week are provided in this free email update, but detailed analysis, background information and source documents are only available to subscribers. For subscription information, email info@tamni.com.
PRM Africa
Cape Verde released official election results, in which President Pedro Pires was re-elected with 51 percent of the vote. Rival candidate Carlos Veiga may dispute expatriate votes that were critical in the small margin.
Democratic Republic of Congo has adopted its new constitution, giving the country a new flag, a new legal framework, and opening the way forward for a democratic transformation. This makes "Security Sector Reform in the Congo" particularly important, as explained by the International Crisis Group:
"Reform of the Democratic Republic of the Congo's security sector must be the top priority for Kinshasa and its international supporters. Rebuilding the national army is far behind schedule, and newly integrated units are often themselves a security hazard. The police are no match for local militias in much of the country. Two particular challenges loom large: the security services must be able to maintain order during national elections in April or May and reduce the staggering mortality rate due to conflict. Far more must be done to create an effective unified army with a single chain of command. Police reform must change a patchwork approach that largely neglects the countryside. All other development and progress ñ from elections to humanitarian assistance to economic activity ñ depend on establishing and maintaining a secure environment.
http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=3946&l=1
Eritrean officials have given no reason for the arrest of 13 UN staff members, which has led another 30 to go in to hiding. The UN has protested the arrest, which follows prior restrictions on UN operations.
http://www.unmeeonline.org/
http://www.shabait.com/
At the Ethiopia-Somalia border, two days of fighting between heavily armed militia from rival Marehan and Majereteen factions of the Darod clan, have killed at least 12 people, and left twice that number inured. The conflict is in response to lack of resources following prolonged drought.
In Kenya, a corruption investigation is underway. Police have ordered 20 senior politicians and other officials to remain in the country while the investigations proceed. Three ministers have resigned, and President Kibaki has reorganized his cabinet accordingly.
Malawi's former education minister Yusuf Mwawa is the first official convicted under President Bingu wa Mutharika's anti-corruption drive. The former minister, who repaid the $1500 taken from public funds to pay for his wedding, has been sentenced to five years in prison for fraud and corruption, which makes him ineligible to serve his parliamentary term. He plans to appeal.
In Nigeria, 16 people were killed in protests against the cartoons satirizing the Prophet Muhammad. An all-day curfew has been imposed.
Uganda's harassment of political opponents is unlikely to lead to free and fair elections in the first multiparty votes being held in 20 years. A new briefing paper from Human Rights Watch also warns of military interference in the courts and bias in campaign finance and media coverage. http://hrw.org/backgrounder/africa/uganda0206/ President and parliamentary elections are scheduled for 23 February and local elections for 28 February, and on 6 and 9 March. Tensions have been heightened by the deaths of three opposition supporters - shot by security forces - in an increasingly violent election campaign.
As Zimbabwe's inflation rate hit 613 percent, women demonstrators have protested over prices of food and violations of human rights. On Monday, 181 demonstrators were detained following a demonstration in Bulawayo. On Tuesday, at least 240 women were detained in Harare. The Women of Zimbabwe Arise (WOZA) organized these "Bread and Roses" marches.
PRM Americas
Bolivian President Evo Morales has been chosen for a sixth consecutive term as leader of the main coca-growers union, a position he says will help him keep in touch with people while he serves as the country's first indigenous president. He is interested in new commercial alternatives for coca crops.
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N13213088.htm
A Brazilian appellate court has overturned the conviction of police colonel Ubiratan Guimaraes. He had been sentenced to 632 years in prison for using excessive force to end a prison riot. Between 100 and 300 prisoners were killed in the incident. Human rights groups denounced the reversal as a "license to kill".
http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/folha/cotidiano/ult95u118390.shtml
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N15290537.htm
Haiti's Provisional Election Council declared Rene Preval president. Although garnering far more votes than any rival, as more ballots were counted his share of the vote began to fall below the 50 percent threshold necessary to avoid a run-off election, which was not advisable under the current security situation. Instead, by omitting thousands of blank ballots from the count, he gained 51 percent. Happy to at last have a president, huge crowds demonstrated in favor of the decision, while other candidates pointed to irregularities, including the discovery of burned ballots in a dump. UN peacekeepers will remain for at least six months more.
http://www.cep-ht.org/
US Secretary of State Rice has asked Congress to approve $75 million emergency funding to expand Farsi broadcasts and promote internal opposition in Iran, and $5 million for similar efforts to undermine the regime in power in Syria.
http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2006/61384.htm
Long-running CIA officer Paul Pillar writes of "Intelligence, Policy, and the War in Iraq" in the forthcoming issue of Foreign Affairs. He reports, "During the run-up to the invasion of Iraq, writes the intelligence community's former senior analyst for the Middle East, the Bush administration disregarded the community's expertise, politicized the intelligence process, and selected unrepresentative raw intelligence to make its public case."
http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20060301faessay85202/paul-r-pillar/intelligence-policy-and-the-war-in-iraq.html
PRM Asia Pacific
Australia's Attorney General Ruddock introduced comprehensive changes to the Telecommunications (Interception) Act 1979 to:
* introduce a new stored communications regime which prohibits access to stored communications held by a telecommunications carrier unless a warrant is issued
* implement the Blunn recommendation that law enforcement be able to intercept the communications of a person who will communicate with a suspect in limited and controlled circumstances, and
* permit a warrant to be sought allowing the interception of a particular telecommunications device (rather than service).
Parliamentary backbenchers and human rights groups object to new invasive powers, including monitoring individuals that are not under suspicion.
http://www.ag.gov.au/agd/www/MinisterRuddockhome.nsf/Page/Media_Releases_2006_First_Quarter_16_February_2006_-_INTERCEPTION_amendments_ACHIEVE_APPROPRIATE_BALANCE
The Australian Wheat Board's business with Iraq is on hold. Iraq suspended its dealings pending the outcome of the Cole oil-for-food inquiry.
http://www.awb.com.au/
Kazakhstan opposition politician Altynbek Sarsenbayev, his bodyguard and driver, were found shot dead outside Almaty. This case and the equally mysterious death last November of Zamanbek Nurkadilov, another opposition politician, are under investigation as possible political assassinations. There have been accusations of government death squads.
Kyrgyzstan President Bakiev has asked the US to increase the annual rent it pays for use of one of the country's military bases from $2 million to $207 million.
http://www.mosnews.com/news/2006/02/15/kyrgyzprice.shtml
Philippine President Arroyo ordered 280 death sentences commuted to life imprisonment.
Thailand's Prime Minister Thaksin has narrowly escaped a conflict of interest inquiry into the family sale of shares in a telecommunications company after a court ruled there was insufficient evidence. However, senators are working towards a possible impeachment.
Tokelau islanders approved a referendum to end New Zealand rule and become self-governing by 60 percent, but this fell short of the two-thirds majority required, leaving the status quo in place with the possibility of revisiting the question in the future.
http://www.tokelau.org.nz/
Tonga's Prime Minister 'Ulukalala Lavaka Ata, who had been appointed by the king, has resigned following several months of pro-democracy protests. The acting Prime Minister for the first time is an elected commoner, Fred Sevele.
http://www.pmo.gov.to/
"Uzbekistan: In for the Long Haul" is a new briefing from the International Crisis Group that addresses new strategies necessary to head off the potential for massive instability in the region.
http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=3952&l=1
PRM Europe
The Council of Europe's Human Rights Commissioner presented a report on respect for human rights in France. It identified shortcomings regarding the administration of justice, detention conditions, the treatment of arriving foreigners, asylum and expulsion procedures, discrimination and xenophobia, domestic violence and trafficking in human beings, and made recommendations for improvement. French authorities say the findings are out of date and that measures have been taken to deal with overcrowded prisons and other issues.
https://wcd.coe.int/ViewDoc.jsp?id=966527&BackColorInternet=F5CA75&BackColorIntranet=F5CA75&BackColorLogged=A9BACE
Denmark's economy and international relations are being seriously harmed by the dispute over expanding protests over cartoons satirizing the Prophet Muhammad. We are preparing special coverage of this topic for next week's Newsletter.
"Kosovo: The Challenge of Transition" is a new report from the International Crisis Group:
"To create a stable Kosovo, the international community must dare to impose independence rather than attempt finessing Pristina and Belgrade's differences with an ambiguous and unstable settlement. While agreement between all parties remains desirable in theory, it is extremely unlikely that any Serbian government will voluntarily acquiesce to the kind of independence, conditional though it is likely to be, which is necessary for a secure, long-term solution. The international community - particularly UN Special Envoy Martti Ahtisaari - must prepare for the possibility of imposing an independence package. Kosovo's Albanian majority, however, must first negotiate deals for Serb and other minority rights. The EU and its member states should increase the resources they commit to the Western Balkans. The international community will have to remain in Serb-dominated northern Kosovo to avoid a violent breakdown after independence."
http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?l=1&id=3955
Russia and Hamas have agreed in principle to meet, including possible discussions about weapons. This decision came as a Hamas representative met in Turkey. Turkey rejected Israel's comparison of Hamas' in Palestine to Kurdish guerillas in Turkey.
Bisher al-Rawi, Jamil al-Banna and Omar Deghayes may ask the Foreign Secretary and the Home Secretary to petition US authorities for their release following a decision by British High Court Judge Collins. Since the three men are held in Guantanamo Bay, where there have been credible allegations of torture, Mr. Justice Collins said that the Government is obliged to act on their behalf. He added that the US idea of torture "is not the same as ours and doesn't appear to coincide with that of most civilized countries". The US has rejected UN and other international rejection of their policy of indefinite detention without charge. British government officials and members of parliament have also called for closure of the camp. The Archbishop of York called the US refusal to close the camp a reflection on "a society that is heading towards George Orwell's Animal Farm", and suggested the issue should be raised in international legal bodies.
PRM Middle East
Egypt has delayed local council elections for two years and has changed the voting rules to require that independent candidates wanting to run for president must be qualified by the support of their local counselors. Muslim Brotherhood candidates standing as independents made large gains in parliamentary elections last December. These measures will help prolong the ruling National Democratic Party's dominance.
The Fatah-dominated Palestinian parliament approved additional powers for President Mahmoud Abbas prior to the swearing-in of the new Hamas-dominated body, and without consulting them. Rather than parliament approving judicial appointments, the President will be able to appoint judges to a new constitutional court that has the power to overturn legislation. Hamas has called the move illegitimate and says it will cancel such last minute, unconstitutional, legislation since the outgoing parliament has no mandate and no authority. The Palestinian Authority has also agreed to return $50 million of US aid after the State Department said it did not want the money going to a Hamas-led government that does not recognize Israel. The US House of Representatives has voted to cut direct aid to the Palestinian Authority, and current policy is to provide aid only through third party humanitarian agencies. Israel's cabinet has approved punitive sanctions on the Palestinian Authority, including withholding monthly customs revenues and further limiting movement.
The new Palestinian parliament, with its Hamas majority, was inaugurated on Saturday. Hamas has selected Ismail Haniya as Prime Minister, and Palestinian President Abbas is expected to ask him to form a government. The Palestinian Legislative Council has also approved University professors Aziz al-Duwaik and Ahmed Bahar as speaker and deputy speaker. Mahmoud Zahar will head the parliamentary faction. A cabinet will be appointed in March. The appointees are pragmatic moderates, believed more open to dialogue than others in Hamas. Hamas has completed collection of weapons used by activists in Gaza, and have transferred them to Hamas' military wing Iz al-Din al-Qassam.
"Iran: Consequences of a War" is a new report from the Oxford Research Group. In it, Professor Paul Rogers analyzes the nature of US of Israeli action, the dangerous consequences and critical responses. He says that an attack against Iran's nuclear infrastructure would lead to a protracted military confrontation involving Iraq, Israel, Lebanon and the US. A military response is particularly dangerous and alternatives, however difficult, must be sought.
http://www.oxfordresearchgroup.org.uk/publications/briefings/IranConsequences.htm
Iran said that the fatwa for the death of author Salman Rushdie over his novel "The Satanic Verses", will remain in force forever.
Iraqis are angered at a video released last week that appears to show British soldiers beating unarmed Iraqi youths in the northern town of Amara in 2004. Britain's defense ministry has detained several suspects identified from the video and launched an investigation. In Basra, where the British force is based, the provincial council voted to withdraw all cooperation with the British, and there have been anti-British protests.
Iraq has launched an investigation into an alleged "death squad" operated by the interior ministry. The investigation follows a US military arrest of 22 policemen allegedly on a mission targeting Sunni Arabs. Sunnis have accused Iraqi forces of operating death squads before, but this is the first time a claim has been substantiated.
Israel's Defense Minister, Shaul Mofaz, announced that compulsory military service for men would be shortened, over a period of four years, from three to two years. Compulsory service for women was not changed. This measure is intended to reduce the defense budget and make the army a more professional organization.
Israeli human rights group B'tselem reports that severe restrictions on Palestinian movement in the fertile Jordan Valley effectively annexes this major part of the West Bank to Israel.
http://www.btselem.org/English/Settlements/20060213_Annexation_of_the_Jordan_Valley.asp
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=10&categ_id=2&article_id=22177
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/682399.html (editorial)
Lebanon marked the first anniversary of former Prime Minister Hariri's assassination on 14 February with anti-Syrian and pro-democracy demonstrations. For background on the assassination and the situation a year later, consult these resources:
http://www.politicalriskmonitor.com/2006/02/PRM1901.shtml
https://terrorismcentral.com/Newsletters/2005/022705.html#FeatureArticle
https://terrorismcentral.com/Newsletters/2005/102305.html#FeatureArticle
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=1&categ_id=2&article_id=22186
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4702142.stm
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=10&categ_id=17&article_id=22173
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=1&categ_id=2&article_id=22152
Syrian Prime Minister Nahji al-Otari has ordered all foreign exchange dealings be conducted in Euros. Formerly, US dollars were used.
http://www.syrecon.org
http://www.cbs-bank.com/
http://www.upi.com/InternationalIntelligence/view.php?StoryID=200-5084r
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/ABA36728-9F9D-4A2C-8F37-9C3230B7E971.htm
PRM South Asia
In Afghanistan and Pakistan violent protests against cartoons satirizing the Prophet Muhammad spread across the countries. 12 people were killed in Afghanistan and five in Pakistan. Pakistan banned demonstrations, but hundreds of protestors came out to tackle the police anyway.
Bangladesh's opposition alliance enforced a national strike (hartal) demanding reliable energy and reduced fertilizer and fuel prices. Clashes with police attempting to stop demonstrations left more than 100 people injured. 56 people were arrested.
India and Pakistan each accused the other of violations of air and maritime space.
Nepal's Supreme Court has ruled that the Royal Commission for Corruption Control set up by King Gyanendra after his seizure of absolute power, was unconstitutional and its rulings - including the imprisonment of former Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba - invalid. The ousted Prime Minister was freed from prison a day after the ruling.
http://www.kantipuronline.com/kolnews.php?&nid=65416
Reporters without Borders reports that at least 114 journalists were arrested in Nepal since 2004, more than any other country in the world.
http://www.rsf.org/article.php3?id_article=16472
Sri Lanka government and Tamil Tiger representatives have traveled to Geneva, where they will hold their first direct high level talks in nearly three years. In a goodwill gesture, the government released four Tiger suspects on bail.