AUTHOR:
TerrorismCentral Editorial Staff
TITLE:
TerrorismCentral Newsletter - February 26, 2006
SOURCE:
TerrorismCentral, February 26, 2006
TEXT:
Counterterrorism in North Africa and the Bush administration's self-evaluation of their response to Hurricane Katrina are among the news from the past week. Each issue of this Newsletter looks at current and historical issues of global risk, focusing on the asymmetric threats posed by natural disasters, terrorism, and transnational crimes, as well as ways to mitigate and respond to these threats.
1. Global Terrorism Monitor
2. Political Risk Monitor
3. AML/CFT Monitor
4. Emerging Threat Monitor
5. Critical Infrastructure Monitor
6. Disaster Reduction Monitor
7. Recommended Reading
8. Asset Management Network News
The Political Risk Monitor is a monthly 16-page print publication. News highlights from the past week are provided in this free email update, but detailed analysis, background information and source documents are only available to subscribers. For subscription information, email info@tamni.com.
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PRM Africa
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"African Leaders' State of Africa Report 2005" included national addresses and other speeches by 14 African leaders, indicating their optimism for the prospects of the continent. http://hermes.wits.ac.za/wcs/display_article.asp?id=544
Chad has set 3 May for presidential elections. After amending the constitution, President Deby will run for a third term. Opposition leaders are calling the election rigged and do not plan to participate.
Democratic Republic of Congo has postponed elections for two months, to 18 June. Parliament has adopted the new Constitution and electoral laws.
Eritrea and Ethiopia, in the "Witnesses to the Algiers Agreement" meeting on 22 February, discussed the impasse between the two countries. The UN Security Council urged the parties to meet with the border commission and conclude establishment of the border. http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2006/sc8651.doc.htm
Ethiopia has opened the trial of 129 people accused of treason and attempted genocide in the aftermath of post-election clashes that killed 46 people. Those accused include opposition leaders, journalists, and civil rights activists, and are generally considered to be politically motivated.
Ivory Coast officials have detained Youssef Fofana ("Brain of the Barbarians") and will repatriate him to France, where he is wanted in connection with the kidnapping, torture and murder of a Jewish man.
Liberia's President Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf has set up a Truth and Reconciliation Commission to investigate human rights abuses committed during the civil war, 1979-2003. The Commission has no power to try cases, and is not a war crimes court. http://www.unmil.org/read.asp?newsID=1055&cat=pr
Northern Nigeria, which is predominantly Muslim and includes areas that practice Sharia law, began protests against Danish cartoons that they viewed as blasphemous last week. The protests quickly turned violent. Two Christian churches were burnt and sectarian violence left 25 dead. Sectarian violence spread further when unfounded rumors of desecration of a Koran confiscated from a student by his teacher inspired a youth rampage and sectarian riots that killed at least 13. The three affected cities have been placed under curfew. On Wednesday violence spread to the south, with fighting in the mainly Christian city of Onitsha that killed at least 20 people. Several mosques were also burnt. By the end of the week, the death toll had exceeded 150.
Ugandan President Museveni has been re-elected to a third term, made possible after changes in the constitution. The Electoral Commission said he won 59 percent of the vote against 37 percent for Kizza Besigye, in the country's first multi-party elections. Election observers say the polling was generally well run and transparent, a significant improvement on prior elections, but there was manipulation of state-run media and serious technical shortcomings, including many voters missing from polling lists or turned away. Systematic patterns of abuse were not detected.
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PRM Americas
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The Colombian army is investigating allegations of torture against its recruits that were published in the weekly magazine Semana. The head of the army, General Reinaldo Castellanos, has resigned in the aftermath of the scandal and his criticism of the officers involved. http://semana.terra.com.co/opencms/opencms/Semana/articulo.html?id=93013 (in Spanish)
Costa Rica completed a recount of the presidential election, showing former President and Nobel Prize laureate Oscar Arias ahead by less than .5 percent of his leftist rival Otton Solis. Final results have not been released, pending the completion of investigations into legal channels.
Ecuador's state-run oil company Petroecuador has suspended exports after a violent demonstration temporarily closed the Trans-Ecuadorean pipeline. The government declared a state of emergency and banned all demonstrations in Napo province. Troops, brought in to control the unrest, opened fire on one group and injured three people. As the violent protests wound down, the government opened discussions regarding oil revenue sharing and infrastructure development.
Head of Haiti's election council, Jacque Bernard, fled the country after his farmhouse was burned down and he had received multiple threats.
Jamaica has its first female Prime Minister following the internal election of Portia Simpson Miller as president of the governing People's National Party.
The US has been reclassifying documents as secret although many had been available for years and contained innocuous information. http://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/21/politics/21reclassify.html
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PRM Asia Pacific
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Australian Prime Minister Howard strongly criticized aspects of Muslim culture, in an interview in The Australian. His comments drew controversy, but not as great as that following Treasurer Peter Costello's address to the Sydney Institute. In his speech he criticized "confused, mushy, misguided multiculturalism" and said Muslims who do not uphold Australian values should lose citizenship. Such comments have sparked anger among the Islamic community as being divisive and inflammatory.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,18204301%255E601,00.html
http://www.treasurer.gov.au/tsr/content/speeches/2006/004.asp
China unveiled plans to expand benefits for farmers and rein in seizures. Although hinting that the government monopoly on land sales may end, the fundamental issue of land ownership has not been resolved.
Indonesia's Papua province is the location of one of the world's largest gold and copper mines, Freeport. Many local people live by looking for tiny amounts left behind in the mine waste, but this source of income was stopped following safety concerns, and police forcibly removed illegal miners from the site. In protest, some 500 residents, armed with homemade bows and arrows and spears, barricaded access routes and refuse to leave until they have met the head of the mine and regained their right to continue prospecting. At the end of the week the protesters agreed to unblock the mine but expect the owners to improve conditions at the facility. The Freeport mine has been controversial for many reasons, including the poverty of the local population and allegations of corruption among local officials and security forces.
Kazakhstan's Committee of National Security (KNB) says that a former policeman and five officers of the elite Arystan combat unit have been arrested as guns for hire in the death of opposition politician Altynbek Sarsenbaiuly earlier this month. He was the second opposition politician found mysteriously dead in recent months: last November, Zamanbek Nurkadilov's death was ruled a suicide, although there was no explanation of how he could have shot himself in the head twice. KNB head Nartay Dutbayev has resigned.
Norfolk Island and Australia have opened discussions on new governance arrangements to provide better financial stability. Proposals involve increased taxes and less autonomy. Norfolk Island has been a self-governing Australian territory since 1979. http://www.ministers.dotars.gov.au/jl/releases/2006/February/l15_2006.htm
Philippines' self-proclaimed military "reformists" claimed responsibility for bombing the presidential palace in Manila on Monday. The explosion damaged only a trashcan, but raised fears of a possible coup. Police have implemented heavy security as they investigate. So far no explosive material has been detected. Soon after, reports of another coup plot emerged. President Arroyo declared a state of national emergency, citing a "clear and present danger". Several senior security officials have been detained, and protest rallies were banned. Despite the ban, there have been large protests, violently thwarted by police.
The Philippines state of emergency was declared as people had gathered to celebrate the 20th anniversary of People Power, the popular movement that had ousted the Marcos dictatorship without a shot (25 February).
Tajik authorities have begun demolition of the only synagogue in Tajikistan. The century-old building and its surrounding structures will be replaced with a new presidential palace. http://www.forum18.org/Archive.php?article_id=731
Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra dissolved parliament and announced a snap election for 2 April. There have been large protests against Thaksin, beginning with complaints over his family's business dealings.
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PRM Europe
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The Council for Europe's deadline for member countries to provide information on any involvement in the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) practice of extraordinary renditions expired. Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Italy, San Marino and Georgia failed to meet the deadline, in a breach of EU human rights law that needs to be addressed. https://wcd.coe.int/ViewDoc.jsp?id=969327
An Austrian court sentenced British historian David Irving to three years in prison for denying the holocaust. Based on a speech and interview given in 1989 he said had no choice but to plead guilty, although he has since learned that his denial of gas chambers in Auschwitz and other claims were false. He has appealed this decision, as have the prosecutors, who want him sentenced to up to ten years. In addition to Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Israel, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Switzerland have laws against holocaust denial.
Bosnian Serb war crimes suspect Milan Lukic has been extradited from Argentina, where he was arrested last year, to the international war crimes tribunal. He faces charges in connection with forming a paramilitary group to torture and kill Bosnian Muslims. http://www.un.org/icty/pressreal/2006/p1044-e.htm
French police have detained 13 people in connection with the kidnapping, torture and murder of a Jewish man that may be connected with an anti-Semitic gang. Among the accused, Ivory Coast officials repatriated Youssef Fofana ("Brain of the Barbarians"). The extreme nature of the crime led to discussions and demonstrations regarding anti-Semitism and other ethnic prejudices in France.
In Dublin, Ireland a riot broke out when republican demonstrators began a march to counter a unionist rally in remembrance of republican violence. In the indiscriminate violence that followed there were more than a dozen injuries, and 13 arrests, including police officers and a journalists hit by stones and fireworks.
UN Human Rights Commissioner completed a visit to Chechnya. She reported, "I came in part to convey the distress felt by many who had witnessed the devastation inflicted on the republic and who continue to witness the ongoing violence wrought on its citizens. I noted that welcome physical reconstruction appeared to be underway in Grozny, and that political structures were being put in place to normalize the situation. I nonetheless also stressed that I had very serious concerns regarding the integrity of certain institutions, especially in the area of law enforcement. Two phenomena are particularly disturbing: the use of torture to extract confessions and information, and the intimidation of those who make complaints against public officials."
http://www.unhchr.ch/huricane/huricane.nsf/view01/8701F47EA29A9B2FC125711F005A1884?opendocument
Britain's Parliamentary Foreign Affairs Committee published a report following their inquiry into the Human Rights Annual Report 2005. The report is highly critical of government support for the US practice of extraordinary rendition flights, continued use of Guantanamo Bay, and draconian anti-terror laws, http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200506/cmselect/cmfaff/574/57402.htm
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PRM Middle East
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Hamas' victory in the January elections was due to Palestinian concern over combating corruption and enforcing law and order. Two surveys revealed these were the major concerns. The Jerusalem Media and Communications Center found that 66 percent believe a Hamas-led government should continue with political negotiations. Only 12 percent voted for Hamas' political agenda, compared to 43 percent who voted for Hamas to end corruption. 74 percent did not expect Hamas to win an overwhelming majority and 58 percent said they prefer a national unity government. 52 percent believe Hamas should end military operations against Israel and support a two-state solution. The Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research identified three factors in the Hamas victory: deadlock, Fatah's failure to build a state, and electoral fragmentation.
http://www.jmcc.org/
http://www.pcpsr.org/
As Hamas attempts to put together a government of national unity, it has received assurances from the US that humanitarian funding will continue, and has offers of aid from Iran, Russia, and the EU. The UN has urged donors to keep the Palestinian Authority running, particularly after Israel starts to withhold tax revenues. Saudi Arabia and Egypt rejected US Secretary of State Rice's appeal to deny aid to Hamas, emphasizing the need to support the Palestinians' humanitarian needs, and wait to see what policies Hamas adopts when it is in government.
A bombing that destroyed the famous gold dome of the al-Askari shrine in Samarra, Iraq, has fanned the flames of a looming civil war. This act against one of the holiest sites in Shia Islam, has led to massive protests and reciprocal attacks against dozens of Sunni mosques. Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani appealed for calm and called for a week of mourning. Political leaders joined his call, and said the action was an effort to sabotage the emerging government. Curfews and increased security have done little to stem the tide of sectarian violence that killed more than 165 people since the attack on Wednesday.
Kuwait's new government was sworn in and parliament unanimously approved the appointment of Sheikh Nawaf al-Ahmad, brother of the new emir and former minister of the interior, as Crown Prince. http://www.kuwaittimes.net/localnews.asp?dismode=article&artid=1609633594
The United Arab Emirates has licensed the first non-governmental organization, the Emirates Human Rights Association.
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PRM South Asia
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In Kabul, Afghanistan, armed men dressed as police hijacked a car operated by the Habib Bank of Pakistan. One guard was killed, two injured, and the (uninsured) $300,000 cash being transported were stolen. The incident in the center of the country's capital raises further concern regarding safety and security. Today, security forces have surrounded a high-security prison in which up to 2,000 prisoners are involved in a massive uprising, involving a number of suspected fatalities.
Thousands of Bangladeshi farmers have staged massive protests against persistent shortages of fertilizer, fuel, and power.
India's judicial system was at least partly vindicated following the closure of the Best Bakery case. An arson attack on a bakery in Gujarat that killed 14 people, including 12 Muslims, was one of the opening shots in the infamous 2002 riots that killed more than a thousand people, most Muslims. Since the riots, there were arrests and acquittals, but for the first time last week, nine people were convicted and sentenced to life in prison.
Maldives President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom pardoned and freed Ahmed Ibrahim Didi and Naushad Waheed, political dissidents who had been imprisoned for alleged treason.
For background on Nepal's long-running Maoist conflict, see http://www.politicalriskmonitor.com/2006/02/PRM2601.shtml
Sri Lanka's government and Tamil Tiger rebels completed a 2-day meeting in Geneva in which they agreed to reduce violence and hold further talks in April.
The AML/CFT Monitor is a monthly 16-page print publication. News highlights from the past week are provided in this free email update, but detailed analysis, background information and source documents are only available to subscribers. For subscription information, email info@tamni.com.
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Incidents/Cases
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Jack Thomas ("Jihad Jack") has been convicted in Australian court of receiving funds from al Qaeda and of possessing a false passport. He had been trained at al Qaeda bases in Afghanistan before moving to Pakistan and was arrested upon his return to Australia in November 2004. He is married with three children and said that he had taken the money to return home and had no intention of being an al Qaeda operative. Thomas is the first charged under Australia's 2002 terrorist financing laws. Sentencing is next week.
Israeli customs officials seized 31 shipping containers imported by the Fayez Abu Amar Company, which operates in the Gaza Strip, because the company has previously been accused of money laundering and the financing of Hamas and Islamic Jihad. http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/684670.html
Dresdner Bank sponsored a team of historians to investigate the bank's role in supporting the Third Reich. The 4-volume study cost EU 1.6 million, but it reveals extraordinary detail of active participation in repressing Jews and confiscating their assets to actively court favor of the Nazi regime. http://service.spiegel.de/cache/international/0,1518,401575,00.html
http://www.dresdner-bank.de/dresdner_bank/02_presse/01_aktuell/20060217.html (in German)
Diepreye Alamieyeseigha, the former governor of Nigeria's oil rich Bayelsa province, was impeached and removed from his position last year. He also fled the UK to avoid money-laundering charges. Now, South African authorities have confiscated his waterfront home, valued at more than $1.7 million, in Cape Town. http://www.efccnigeria.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=813&Itemid=2
Canadian independent oil producer Talisman faces scrutiny over its role in the war in Sudan. http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1140304233434
State funds looted by late Philippine president Ferdinand Marcos and his cronies may be worth $100 billion, of which less than $2 billion US has been recovered,
http://www.pcgg.gov.ph/
http://www.philstar.com/philstar/NEWS_FLASH022220065877_13.htm
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Legislation and Regulation
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The US Treasury has frozen assets pending investigation of KindHearts, a charity operating in Ohio, which is suspected of channeling money to Hamas. http://www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/js4058.htm
The US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) has taken enforcement action against Pinebank and Summi National Bank for failure to comply with various aspects of the Bank Secrecy Act. http://www.occ.treas.gov
Nigeria's Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) chairman, speaking at an anti-corruption conference, reiterated the need for all banks to report all large transactions or face sanctions. http://www.efccnigeria.org/
The US Financial Crimes Network (FINCen) issued a recent report on suspicious activity reports. See http://www.amlcftmonitor.com/2006/02/AML1901.shtml
FinCEN and bank regulators have proposed substantial changes to the SAR forms. Comments on the proposal will be accepted until 18 April. http://www.ots.treas.gov/docs/r.cfm?73299.pdf
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Modalities
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India's government has established two high-level committees, one federal and one state, to monitor terrorist financing through hawala.
http://www.indianexpress.com/full_story.php?content_id=88446
http://www.expressindia.com/fullstory.php?newsid=63260
Improving governance and the regulatory framework for Islamic banking was the topic of an international conference last week.
http://www.lau.edu.lb/news-events/conferences/islamic_bf/
Indonesian police arrested as many as 500 people for alleged involvement in illegal logging in Java.
The Emerging Threat Monitor will be published in print later this year. News highlights from the past week are provided in this free email update, but detailed analysis, background information and source documents are only available to subscribers. For more information, email info@tamni.com.
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Infectious Diseases
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Avian influenza H5N1 in Nigeria has spread to commercial farms throughout the country. Cases in France, originally detected in wild birds, have been found on farms. Since the beginning of the month, 13 countries have outbreaks of this deadly strain. In order of reporting, they are Iraq, Nigeria, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Greece, Italy, Slovenia, Iran, Austria, Germany, Egypt, India and France. Malaysia has reported a fresh outbreak a year after it was considered free of the disease.
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/en/index.html
http://www.fao.org/newsroom/en/news/2006/1000238/index.html
The largest recorded outbreak of mosquito-borne virus chikungunya has erupted throughout the island of Reunion, where it has infected one in five of the population this year. Rarely fatal, of the 157,000 people affected, 77 deaths have been attributed directly or indirectly to the outbreak. Cases in Madagascar, Mauritius, and the Seychelles have also been reported.
http://www.premier-ministre.gouv.fr/information/actualites_20/plan-aide-reunion-chikungunya_55394.html (in French)
http://www.the-scientist.com/news/display/23145/
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Legal Systems
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The execution in California of Michael Morales was delayed after two court-appointed physicians refused to participate. US federal judge Jeremy Fogel had ordered that in order to proceed with lethal injection, the inmate must be unconscious and the two physicians would have to intervene if he woke up or appeared to be in pain. Both doctors found this ethically unacceptable, and no qualified medical personnel could be found who were willing to administer the drugs. The death warrant expired and the execution has been indefinitely postponed pending a review on how the state carries out lethal injections.
http://www.asahq.org/news/asanews21606.htm
http://www.ama-assn.org/ama/pub/category/16007.html
http://www.calphys.org/html/cc093.asp
http://www.cand.uscourts.gov/cand/judges.nsf/ea8a6425ba87872388256d480060b734/b23fe76dfd8ca3398825711500825cb7?OpenDocumentUS
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Populations
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The Institute for Public Policy Research reports that the UK suffers a "baby gap" of 90,000 each year, largely because of delayed childbirth. http://www.ippr.org.uk/pressreleases/?id=1947
Center of Regional and Urban Studies director Adrinov Chaniago said that Indonesia's Home Ministry must be involved in the proposed megalopolitan concept of development. http://www.thejakartapost.com/detailcity.asp?fileid=20060211.G04&irec=3
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Weapons
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Malaysian Foreign Minister Datuk Seri Syed Hamid Albar suggested establishing a nuclear weapon-free zone for western Asia, similar to that established by the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) in 1995, as a way to address issues related to Iran's nuclear programs. http://www.kln.gov.my/
Iran and Russia will continue discussions following an agreement in principle for a joint venture to enrich uranium. Note two new reports related to Iran's nuclear program:
1. "Iranian Nuclear Weapons" from the Center for Strategic and International Studies examines the threat from Iran’s programs for missiles and weapons of mass destruction. http://www.csis.org/component/option,com_csis_pubs/task,view/id,2733/
2. The International Crisis Group asks "Is There a Way Out of the Nuclear Impasse?" Their report says:
"European diplomacy has so far not persuaded Iran to drop its uranium enrichment ambitions; the UN Security Council seems unlikely to agree on sanctions strong enough to force it to do so; and preventive military force would be both dangerous and unproductive. Two possible scenarios remain, however, for a negotiated compromise. The more attractive is a 'zero enrichment' option, building on Russia's proposal, under which Iran would indefinitely give up its right to enrich uranium in return for guaranteed offshore nuclear fuel supply. If this option proves unachievable ñ as seems more likely than not ñ the only realistic diplomatic alternative is the 'delayed limited enrichment' plan detailed in this report." http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?l=1&id=3976
Measures to counter the threat of non-state actors acquiring weapons of mass destruction and similar issues were discussed by UN counterterrorism committees last week. http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2006/sc8644.doc.htm
5. Critical Infrastructure Monitor
The Emerging Threat Monitor will be published in print later this year. News highlights from the past week are provided in this free email update, but detailed analysis, background information and source documents are only available to subscribers. For more information, email .
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Infectious Diseases
--------------------------------------------------
Avian influenza H5N1 in Nigeria has spread to commercial farms throughout the country. Cases in France, originally detected in wild birds, have been found on farms. Since the beginning of the month, 13 countries have outbreaks of this deadly strain. In order of reporting, they are Iraq, Nigeria, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Greece, Italy, Slovenia, Iran, Austria, Germany, Egypt, India and France. Malaysia has reported a fresh outbreak a year after it was considered free of the disease.
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/en/index.html
http://www.fao.org/newsroom/en/news/2006/1000238/index.html
The largest recorded outbreak of mosquito-borne virus chikungunya has erupted throughout the island of Reunion, where it has infected one in five of the population this year. Rarely fatal, of the 157,000 people affected, 77 deaths have been attributed directly or indirectly to the outbreak. Cases in Madagascar, Mauritius, and the Seychelles have also been reported.
http://www.premier-ministre.gouv.fr/information/actualites_20/plan-aide-reunion-chikungunya_55394.html (in French)
http://www.the-scientist.com/news/display/23145/
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Legal Systems
--------------------------------------------------
The execution in California of Michael Morales was delayed after two court-appointed physicians refused to participate. US federal judge Jeremy Fogel had ordered that in order to proceed with lethal injection, the inmate must be unconscious and the two physicians would have to intervene if he woke up or appeared to be in pain. Both doctors found this ethically unacceptable, and no qualified medical personnel could be found who were willing to administer the drugs. The death warrant expired and the execution has been indefinitely postponed pending a review on how the state carries out lethal injections.
http://www.asahq.org/news/asanews21606.htm
http://www.ama-assn.org/ama/pub/category/16007.html
http://www.calphys.org/html/cc093.asp
http://www.cand.uscourts.gov/cand/judges.nsf/ea8a6425ba87872388256d480060b734/b23fe76dfd8ca3398825711500825cb7?OpenDocumentUS
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Populations
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The Institute for Public Policy Research reports that the UK suffers a "baby gap" of 90,000 each year, largely because of delayed childbirth. http://www.ippr.org.uk/pressreleases/?id=1947
Center of Regional and Urban Studies director Adrinov Chaniago said that Indonesia's Home Ministry must be involved in the proposed megalopolitan concept of development. http://www.thejakartapost.com/detailcity.asp?fileid=20060211.G04&irec=3
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Weapons
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Malaysian Foreign Minister Datuk Seri Syed Hamid Albar suggested establishing a nuclear weapon-free zone for western Asia, similar to that established by the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) in 1995, as a way to address issues related to Iran's nuclear programs. http://www.kln.gov.my/
Iran and Russia will continue discussions following an agreement in principle for a joint venture to enrich uranium. Note two new reports related to Iran's nuclear program:
1. "Iranian Nuclear Weapons" from the Center for Strategic and International Studies examines the threat from Iran’s programs for missiles and weapons of mass destruction. http://www.csis.org/component/option,com_csis_pubs/task,view/id,2733/
2. The International Crisis Group asks "Is There a Way Out of the Nuclear Impasse?" Their report says:
"European diplomacy has so far not persuaded Iran to drop its uranium enrichment ambitions; the UN Security Council seems unlikely to agree on sanctions strong enough to force it to do so; and preventive military force would be both dangerous and unproductive. Two possible scenarios remain, however, for a negotiated compromise. The more attractive is a 'zero enrichment' option, building on Russia's proposal, under which Iran would indefinitely give up its right to enrich uranium in return for guaranteed offshore nuclear fuel supply. If this option proves unachievable ñ as seems more likely than not ñ the only realistic diplomatic alternative is the 'delayed limited enrichment' plan detailed in this report." http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?l=1&id=3976
Measures to counter the threat of non-state actors acquiring weapons of mass destruction and similar issues were discussed by UN counterterrorism committees last week. http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2006/sc8644.doc.htm
The Disaster Reduction Monitor will be published in print later this year. News highlights from the past week are provided in this free email update, but detailed analysis, background information and source documents are only available to subscribers. For more information, email info@tamni.com.
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Incidents
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In northern Mexico an explosion in a coal mine trapped at least 65 workers. Rescue efforts have been suspended and the trapped men are believed dead. http://www.bmv.com.mx/ (in Spanish)
The roof of a Moscow market collapsed, killing 57 people. The weight of snow is a contributing factor, but construction flaws are also suspected. The designer, Nodar Kancheli, also planned the Transvaal water park that collapsed in 2004.
At least 51 people, mostly women, have been killed and more than 100 injured at a fire in a Bangladeshi textile mill in the southeastern port city of Chittagong. Similar incidents have killed more than 350 garment workers since 1990. http://www.thedailystar.net/2006/02/25/d6022501075.htm
The drought in Kenya has led to competition, often violent, for scarce resources between humans and animals. Wildlife has strayed from national parks, killing at least three people since December. At least half of the elephant population has strayed, with devastating consequences for the people they encounter. Cattle and herders search far afield, including inside the parks, to find food and water. http://www.fao.org
Heavy rains in eastern Indonesia have caused landslides and floods that have killed at least 24 people.
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Response and Recovery
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Rescue efforts for the landslide on the Philippine Island of Leyte have been abandoned, leaving about a thousand missing and believed dead. The focus now will be on survivor rehabilitation.
The data recorder for the al-Salam 98 ferry that sank in the Red Sea on 3 February has been recovered and sent to the UK for analysis.
The US White House has released "The Federal Response to Hurricane Katrina: Lessons Learned". It, too places blame at all levels: Federal, State, Local, Community, And Individual, and also includes a description of "successes" in the disaster response. http://www.whitehouse.gov/reports/katrina-lessons-learned/
The Peace Bridge, Aman Setu, that connected the Indian and Pakistani sides of Kashmir, was badly damaged in the October 2005 earthquake but has now been reopened. The former footbridge was rebuilt to carry vehicles.
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Risks
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The UN children's fund warns that children orphaned in the landslide on the Philippine Island of Leyte may be at risk from human trafficking. http://www.unicef.org/infobycountry/philippines.html
Floodplain experts speaking at the American Association for the Advancement of Science annual meeting report that US flood control policies have increased the risk of disaster, primarily by encouraging development. http://www.aaas.org/news/releases/2006/0220katrina.shtml
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Mitigation
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Bangladesh Prime Minister Zia ordered all industrial units to comply with safety standards, and formed a committee to investigate the garment factory fire. http://www.thedailystar.net/2006/02/25/d6022501086.htm
Burundi has set up a fund called National Solidarity for Food Security to address hundreds of thousands at risk of famine. http://allafrica.com/stories/200602220305.html
Flash floods across southeast Asia have been blamed on massive deforestation and calls to the governments of Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and elsewhere to enforce laws against illegal logging, as well as taking steps to stabilize the land.
Tsunami-prone areas in Indonesia's Phuket and Andaman provinces are ready for use, with additional installations scheduled during the year.
This year's winter Olympics have proceeded without significant security incidents, following the lessons learned from Munich, Atlanta, and other venues.
At the end of last year, Steven Spielberg released "Munich". The official movie site is at http://www.munichmovie.com/. Commentary and reviews can be found at:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,,1687815,00.html
http://movies2.nytimes.com/2005/12/23/movies/23muni.html?ex=1141102800&en=b5a2ebd27e53855b&ei=5070
Spielberg's movie was based on Aaron Klein's 2005 book, "Striking Back: The 1972 Munich Olympics Massacre and Israel's Deadly Response" (Random House). Note this interview with the author: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5066445
And these reviews:
http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060101/FEATURES05/601010338
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/scorecard/01/26/book.review/index.html
http://www.nowtoronto.com/issues/2006-01-26/books_reviews2.php
An earlier version of the story was in George Jonas's book "Vengeance: The True Story of an Israeli Counter-terrorist Team" Simon and Schuster). The story follows a Mossad agent who leads a revenge team, and was previously filmed on a made for TV movie called the Sword of Gideon. http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0092038/
Also note the excellent coverage of the incident in Simon Reeve's "One Day in September : The Full Story of the 1972 Munich Olympics Massacre and the Israeli Revenge Operation 'Wrath of God'" (Arcade), that was filmed in 1999.
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0230591/
For other background on this event and related political and security issues, refer to:
https://terrorismcentral.com/Newsletters/2002/090802.html#FeatureArticle
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/pages/ShArtVty.jhtml?sw=munich&itemNo=686767
On a more cheerful note, you can view video coverage of the current Olympic games online:
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