The US Congress was busy finishing up before the mid-term elections, so this week includes a large number of legislative actions, hearings and reports, including framing a controversial detainee bill. News highlights from around the globe include elections from Austria to Zambia, as well as recent developments in transnational frauds across multiple industries, laundering money through a fake employment site, and much more. Recommended Reading was going to feature the fifth anniversary of the war in Afghanistan, but we pushed it out a week to instead provide the US Director of National Intelligence's Declassified Key Judgments of the National Intelligence Estimate on "Trends in Global Terrorism: Implications for the United States" in full.

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3. AML/CFT Monitor

The AML/CFT Monitor is a monthly 16-page print publication. News highlights from the past week are provided in this free email update, but detailed analysis, background information and source documents are only available to subscribers. Purchase a subscription at our online store:
TAMNI Publications

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AML/CFT Incidents/Cases
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The Royal Canadian Mounted Police Integrated Market Enforcement Team arrested and charged Aneillo Peluso, Michael Ciavarella, and Michael Milton with charges that include fraud, robbery, possession, laundering, and extortion in connection with a pump and dump stock scam.
http://www.rcmp-grc.gc.ca/on/press/2006/06-09-26_imets_e.htm

Colombian drug kingpins Gilberto and Miguel Rodriguez Orejuela pleaded guilty in US federal court to conspiring to import 441,000 pounds of cocaine into the US. In a plea agreement they have each been sentenced to 30 years in prison and forfeiture.
http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/hp112.htm
http://www.usdoj.gov/dea/pubs/pressrel/pr092606a.html

Iran has lodged a complaint with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) regarding sanctions imposed by the US Treasury on Iran's central bank, Bank Saderat.
http://www.thedailystar.net/2006/09/26/d60926050562.htm

Police in both the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland launched a cross-border money laundering investigation associated with proceeds of alleged insurance and mortgage frauds. One man was arrested in a series of raids.
http://www.irishexaminer.com/breaking/story.asp?j=84061398&p=84x6y7xx&n=84061778&x=

Jamaican authorities arrested Brian Beckford at the airport after customs officials found GBP 44,000 strapped to his body. He and his colleague Roderick Francis were released during the investigation and are now being sought on a customs violations and money laundering charges.
http://www.radiojamaica.com/news/story.php?category=2&story=28557

Malaysian authorities have laid 202 money laundering charges against Businessman Teo Chin Hua.  and two other men. In another case businessman Lee Swee Chwee, and unemployed Ng Lian Chi face 62 money laundering charges.
http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2006/9/28/courts/15566854&sec=courts

Namibia will extradite former Comverse Technologies head Jacob ("Kobi") Alexander to the US on an arrest warrant under an indictment that contains 32 charges. The charges relate to stock frauds, and include channeling a secret slush fund and other monies through multiple banks, including large accounts in Israel and New York.
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/768737.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aC5ptXt1xXhg
http://allafrica.com/stories/200609290070.html

Dutch and British authorities collaborated in a carousel tax fraud, finding that the criminals all used an account with the First Curacao International Bank (FCIB), which has been shut down by Dutch police.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/frontpage/story/0,,1877248,00.html
http://home.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/index.jsp?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20060913006031&newsLang=en
http://www.theroyalgazette.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060922/NEWS/109220125

Mehreen Haji has been charged in UK court on two charges of entering into funding arrangements for the purposes of terrorism, in connection with supporting her husband Habib Ahmed when he attended terrorism training in Pakistan.
http://www.pakistantimes.net/2006/09/26/top6.htm
http://www.gmp.police.uk/mainsite/pages/67FD708A4C854772802571F4003E5DC2.htm

Bank of America has entered into an agreement with Manhattan's District Attorney under which it will pay $7.5 million to settle charges that it failed to prevent money laundering in connection with wire transfers undertaken by Brazilian companies.
http://www.manhattanda.org/whatsnew/press/2006-09-27.html

Dinesh Dalmia, Ashish Paul,, and William Dowling face charges including conspiracy, wire fraud and money laundering in a 16-count indictment unsealed in the US state of New Jersey.
http://www.nj.com/news/ledger/jersey/index.ssf?/base/news-4/1159590211111350.xml&coll=1
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AML/CFT Legislation and Regulation
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The Bangladesh Bank has sent letters to all banks requesting reports on the volume and nature of business undertaken by eleven importers suspected of money laundering. The companies under investigation are Arif Gaffar, Harun Gaffar, Sabbir Gaffar, Eusuf Gaffar, Gaffar Food Products, Royal Engineering, Mecca Poultry, Joynab Works, Bashundhara Overseas, Eusuf Poultry and Fish Feed, and Kustia Flour Mills.
http://www.thedailystar.net/2006/09/28/d60928050455.htm

The European Parliament has called on the European Central Bank (ECB) to state officially what it knew of the controversial US surveillance of international banking transactions. The investigation also wants to know whether central banks in Europe have broken data protection laws. A hearing has been set for 4 October. The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), which handles the transactions, said they had been forced to deliver records to the US Treasury under a secret subpoena following 9/11, and had informed its overseers.
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/hearings/20061004/libe/programme_en.pdf
http://www.swift.com/index.cfm?item_id=60531
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/29/world/europe/29swift.html

India has set up a high level panel to monitor cases of organized crime and money laundering.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/2033255.cms

The Communist Party of India has collected contributions for the Palestine Fund to offset the economic blockade, but can't figure out how to transfer the monies.
http://www.indianexpress.com/story/13186.html

After further review, South Africa's National Gambling Board has admitted that Reserve bank allegations that robbers were using casinos to launder stolen money may have basis in fact, following a finding that one casino has insisted that ink-stained notes in its possession are legal tender.
http://www.int.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=13&art_id=vn20060929004027737C587557

The UK Economic Secretary to the Treasury, Ed Balls, launched a public consultation on proposals to address AML/CFT controls for money services businesses. It proposes:
* Keep criminals out of the money services business sector by replacing the current registration system with a licensing system;
* Strengthen HM Revenue and Customs? enforcement activity on the highest risk operators with tougher action against, including prosecution for persistent non-compliance;
* Require financial records to be maintained in a consistent form, and in English, to establish stronger audit trails for investigators;
* Build a more effective compliance culture in the money services business sector through enhanced guidance for, and engagement with, the money services business sector; and
* Robustly tackle serious or persistent non-compliance among money services businesses, including through prosecution.
http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/newsroom_and_speeches/press/2006/press_69_06.cfm
http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/media/C60/87/msb_review_v3.pdf

The US has used multiple agencies and a private nonprofit entity to implement domestic and international provisions of the Clean Diamond Trade Act (CDTA). CDTA provides the statutory framework for US implementation of the Kimberley Process Certification Scheme (KPCS) to curtail the trade of rough diamonds that had fueled conflicts in Africa. The Government Accountability Office (GAO) completed their study, "Conflict Diamonds: Agency Actions Needed to Enhance Implementation of the Clean Diamond Trade Act". In this report, they cite continued vulnerability to illicit trade and recommend the multiple agencies involved improve accuracy of trade data, import/export procedures including periodic physical inspections and receipt confirmation, oversight of certification authorities, and providing assistance.
http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-06-978

The US Department of Treasury updated Anti-Terrorist Financing Guidelines: Voluntary Best Practices for US-based Charities (Guidelines). They incorporate public comments to protect against potential abuse while keeping communication channels open and maintain charitable gifts.
http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/hp122.htm

The US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) designated nine members of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) as narcotics kingpins:
"Six of the nine individuals named today were indicted as part of a narcotics conspiracy along with other high ranking members of the FARC in March 2006 in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia: Jose Juvenal Velandia ("Ivan Rios"), Jose Lisandro Lascarro ("Pastor Alape"), Alvaro Alfonso Serpa Diaz ("Felipe Rincon"), Gener Garcia Molina ("John 40"), Gerardo Antonio Aguilar Ramirez ("Cesar") and Gentil Alvis Patino ("Chiguiro"). Also designated today is Ferney Tovar Parra, a FARC member and right hand man to previously designated FARC commander "Fabian Ramirez." Tovar Parra has been indicted on federal drug trafficking charges in the Southern District of Florida. U.S. authorities are seeking the extradition of Gentil Alvis Patino and Ferney Tovar Parra, who are currently in Colombian custody. Also designated today are Rodrigo Granda Escobar and Jesus Emilio Carvajalino. Rodrigo Granda Escobar, an international representative for the FARC, is also in Colombian custody. Jesus Emilio Carvajalino, a member of the FARC Secretariat, is one of Colombia's most wanted terrorists."
http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/hp119.htm

OFAC identified five companies and six individuals they believe have acted as fronts for designated drug kingpin Manuel Aguirre Galindo, a leader of Arellano Felix Organization.
http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/hp120.htm
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AML/CFT Modalities
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A fake online employment site in New Zealand used a phishing scam to trick people into inadvertently permitting their bank accounts to launder money.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3808748a11,00.html

Following increased airport security in the US, smuggling cash from drug profits between Mexico has increased.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/nation/20060925-9999-1n25smuggle.html

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4. Emerging Threat Monitor

For detailed analysis, background information and source documents consider subscribing. Subscriptions to Emerging Threat Monitor can be purchased at our online store:
TAMNI Publications

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ETM Corruption and Transnational Crime
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Shanghai Party Secretary Chen Liangyu has been dismissed for corruption in connection with misuse of the city's pension fund. The most senior Communist Party official in the city, he has also been suspended from the Politburo. Other cases may follow as the investigation progresses.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2006-09/25/content_5134994.htm
http://english.people.com.cn//200609/28/eng20060928_306950.html

Nigeria's Senate unanimously voted to investigate allegations of fraud made by President Obasanjo and the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) against Vice President Atiku Abubaker, in connection with his administration of the Petroleum Technology Development Fund. Abubakar has been suspended from the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP). Although he will remain vice president, the suspension renders him ineligible for nomination as a PDP presidential candidate.
http://www.vanguardngr.com/articles/2002/headline/f126092006.html
http://allafrica.com/stories/200609270685.html

EFCC previously detained all 24 Plateau State legislators on corruption charges. A federal judge has called for EFCC to appear in court on 3 October to explain why the legislators are being indefinitely detained.
http://www.vanguardngr.com/articles/2002/north/nt127092006.html

The new anti-corruption organization established by Thailand's coup leaders has opened an investigation into more than 10,000 allegations of corruption against ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/5376732.stm

Roselane Driz, has been convicted in British court of blackmailing a female immigration judge and stealing intimate tapes from her male colleague. The UK Department of Constitutional Affairs is evaluating disciplinary proceedings against the two judges, who both had hired her illegally as a cleaner.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-2378047,00.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2006/09/27/ujudge.xml

The US Senate Committee on the Judiciary held a hearing on "Illegal Insider Trading: How Widespread is the Problem and is there Adequate Criminal Enforcement". Senators suggested a need for more vigorous law enforcement, while regulatory officials described increasing numbers of cases. Insider trading by hedge funds posed particular concerns.
http://judiciary.senate.gov/hearing.cfm?id=2405
http://www.forbes.com/business/energy/feeds/ap/2006/09/26/ap3047336.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/27/business/27sec.html

The House Government Reform Committee released an investigative report on the nature and extent of the relationship between the White House and disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff and his associates. The investigation found more extensive contacts than previously admitted, but there were a number of cases of fraudulent recording of client billing records.  
http://reform.house.gov/GovReform/News/DocumentSingle.aspx?DocumentID=51048
http://reform.house.gov/GovReform/Files/?CatagoryID=152

The House Committee on Energy and Commerce, Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations, held two days of hearings on "Internet Data Brokers and Pretexting: Who Has Access to Your Private Records?" The hearings were launched in connection with the Hewlett-Packard board spying scandal. Several HP executives and the investigators they hired were subpoenaed before the panel, but most called on fifth amendment protection against self-incrimination and answered few if any questions. The corporate counsel, who resigned shortly before her appearance, was among those taking the fifth.
http://energycommerce.house.gov/108/Hearings/09292006hearing2047/hearing.htm
http://www.hp.com/
http://www.hp.com/hpinfo/newsroom/press/2006/060928a.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=arnPXt4olDI8
http://thechronicleherald.ca/Business/531254.html
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2006/09/29/SCENE.TMP
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,200-2380350,00.html

Gambino organized crime family leader John A. Gotti's attorneys said they would file a motion to have racketeering charges dismissed following a third mistrial.
http://www.newsday.com/news/local/longisland/ny-nygott0929,0,3802458.story
http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/g/john_a_gotti/index.html

Former Enron finance officer Jeffrey Skilling has been sentenced to six years in prison. He previously had forfeited more than $24 million in connection with the fraudulent schemes to hide company debts. He has agreed to assist attorneys in a class-action shareholder lawsuit directed against the banks that helped Enron disguise its financial problems.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/25/AR2006092501364.html
https://terrorismcentral.com/Newsletters/2006/052806.html#4
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ETM Economies and Financial Systems
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The World Economic Forum (WEF) released the Global Competitiveness Report 2006-2007. Switzerland replaced the US as the most competitive. The US fell from first to sixth. The other top ten were, in order, Finland, Sweden, Denmark, Singapore, Japan, Germany, Netherlands and the UK. At the bottom were Ethiopia, Mozambique, East Timor, Chad, Burundi and Angola, at number 125.
http://www.weforum.org/en/initiatives/gcp/Global%20Competitiveness%20Report/index.htm

The World Trade Organization (WTO) opened its Public Forum on 25 September. Director-General Pascal Lamy's opening remarks noted the "frustration and regret" of members, academia and civil society over the risk of "losing a major - maybe unique - opportunity to integrate more vulnerable economies into international trade, and undermining their potential for contributing to sustainable growth and poverty alleviation".
http://www.wto.org/english/forums_e/public_forum_e/forum06_e.htm
http://www.wto.org/english/news_e/sppl_e/sppl38_e.htm

World Tourism Day was marked on 27 September by highlighted the major role the industry plays in combating poverty in developing countries.
http://www.unwto.org/wtd/eng/doc/wtd_06_mesg_en.pdf

The US House Committee on Financial Services Subcommittee on Capital Markets, Insurance and Government Sponsored Enterprises and the Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations held a joint hearing on "Protecting Americans from Catastrophic Terrorism Risk". Testimony from businesses, insurers, and others called for a permanent solution to safeguard the economy against future terrorist attacks. In particular, a continued federal role is needed to ensure terrorism risk insurance will be available after the Terrorism Risk Extension Act expires.
http://financialservices.house.gov/hearings.asp?formmode=detail&hearing=511
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ETM Environment and Climate Change
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Researchers at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies and colleagues from other organizations have concluded that the world's temperature is the warmest it has been for 12,000 years, as the result of rapid warming over the last 30 years.
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20060925/

The UN Commission for Sustainable Development inaugurated the Secretariat of the Global Bio-energy Partnership (GBEP) to promote bio-energy sources.
http://www.fao.org/newsroom/en/news/2006/1000405/index.html"

The Asian Carbon Trade Exchange (ACT) has opened its trading participation platform.
http://www.asiancarbontrade.com/i

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) completed an Environmental Performance Review of Korea. It praised achievements in reduced emissions, improved water quality and waste recycling, and strengthened environmental laws and investments. They called for stronger international cooperation especially on ozone layer protection, greenhouse gases, and marine issues. It recommends more efficient energy use, economic instruments to support the environment, integration water management improvements; integrating environmental concerns in energy and transport policies, and increasing protection of natural resources both for their economic value and to mitigate disasters.
http://www.oecd.org/document/44/0,2340,en_2649_201185_37435692_1_1_1_1,00.html

UK Environment Secretary David Miliband has launched a blog to help scare people about global warming and prepare them to take action.
http://www.davidmiliband.defra.gov.uk/blogs/ministerial_blog/about_blog.aspx

The House Committee on Government Reform, Subcommittee on Energy and Resources, held a hearing on  "Rebalancing the Carbon Cycle". Chairman Issa insisted that nuclear power would be part of the solution to climate change. Testimony focused on the state of current research, new technologies, and renewables, and other issues.
http://reform.house.gov/ER/Hearings/EventSingle.aspx?EventID=50989

California Governor Schwarzenegger has signed greenhouse gas legislation into law, requiring a 25 percent reduction no later than 2020.
http://gov.ca.gov/index.php?/press-release/4111/

Airborne contaminants in homes can range from allergic agents such as mold to potentially lethal threats such as carbon monoxide. Engineers at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) have developed a database of U.S. residential housing to help conduct nationwide analyses of ventilation, air cleaning or moisture control strategies to reduce indoor air pollution.
http://www.bfrl.nist.gov/IAQanalysis/case%20studies/cwcase_11.htm
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ETM Human Rights
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UN Member States are more willing than ever to join to prevent the movement of terrorists and their supporters across borders, but unpoliced frontiers and forged documents still allow such travel. The expert monitors of sanctions against al Qaeda and the Taleban believe that the arms embargo should take into account the evolution in terrorists' tactics in order to address the threat posed by listed individuals and entities. They also cited a lack of knowledge and understanding of the threat, and called for improved procedures in maintaining the consolidated list.
http://www.un.org/Docs/journal/asp/ws.asp?m=s/2006/750
http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs//2006/sc8840.doc.htm

Martin Scheinin, Special Rapporteur on the protection and promotion of human rights while countering terrorism, said that five current trends in fighting the global scourge of terrorism risk violating human rights:
* Resorting to the notion of "terrorism" to stigmatize political, ethnic or other movements they simply did not like
* Questioning or compromising the absolute prohibition of torture and of all forms of cruel, inhuman, and degrading treatment
* Going beyond the criminalization of incitement to commit serious crime, by penalizing the "glorification" or "apology" of terrorism, or the publication of information that "could be useful" in the commission of acts of terrorism
* Justifying tightening immigration controls by the risk of terrorism
* The issue of terrorism largely replacing drug-related crime as the primary public justification for extending the powers of the police, coupled with the abandonment of many of the traditional safeguards
http://www.unog.ch/unog/website/news_media.nsf/(httpNewsByYear_en)/E39456F5145ABC85C12571F4005BA06C?OpenDocument

Radhika Coomaraswamy, Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for children and armed conflict, told the Security Council that this had been a terrible year for children affected by war, with no guarantee that combatants would create humanitarian space for the protection of children. She will work with UNICEF to launch a two-year strategy aimed at ending grave violations against children in armed conflict by promoting protection, raising awareness and making the issue central to peacekeeping and peacebuilding.
http://www.unog.ch/unog/website/news_media.nsf/(httpNewsByYear_en)/012A9399A86385A7C12571F8004CC0BB?OpenDocument
In the past, all combatants would create the humanitarian space for the protection of children but today there was an uphill battle to ensure that these principles remained entrenched, she said.

The US Congressional-Executive Commission on China released its 2005 report on human rights and the rule of law in China. It says, "The Commission is deeply concerned that some Chinese government policies designed to address growing social unrest and bolster Communist Party authority are resulting in a period of declining human rights for China's citizens. The Commission identified limited improvements in the Chinese government's human rights practices in 2004, but backward-stepping government decisions in 2005 and 2006 are leading the Commission to reevaluate the Chinese leadership's commitment to additional human rights improvements in the near term." China has rejected all accusations in the report as groundless and suggested that the US pay more attention to their own problems, stop interfering with Chinese internal affairs, and focus on improving relations.
http://www.cecc.gov/pages/hearings/2006/20060920/index.php
http://www.cecc.gov/pages/annualRpt/annualRpt06/index.php
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2006-09/25/content_5136056.htm
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ETM Infectious Diseases
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The number of H5N1 avian influenza fatalities has now reached 52, out of 68 confirmed cases. Thailand's Ministry of Public Health has confirmed the 25th human infection, which was the third detected this year and the third fatality this year: in all 17 have been fatal.
http://www.who.int/csr/don/2006_09_27a/en/index.html
http://www.who.int/csr/don/2006_09_27/en/index.html

Cumulative laboratory confirmed cases of avian influenza now stand at 251, or which 148 have proven fatal.
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/country/cases_table_2006_09_28/en/index.html

Europe is preparing for an increased threat this autumn as migratory birds begin to travel.
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L27330428.htm

The European Commission has adopted a communication on international health regulations that calls for proactive implementation, taking into account pandemic flu.
http://www.europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=IP/06/1276&format=HTMLn

An analysis of mice infected with the reconstructed 1918 influenza virus has revealed that although the infection triggered a very strong immune system response, the response failed to protect the animals from severe lung disease and death. This out of control immune response counters previous findings that the high deaths in 1918 were due to a second wave of infection striking those already hit by the flu.
http://fusion.mssm.edu/media/content.cfm?storynum=304
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/health/286768_1918flu28.htmls

"Pandemic Flu: Are We Properly Prepared" was a conference last week in London that reviewed preparation, and predicted these steps and vaccines may not stop a pandemic.
http://www.pandemicfluconference.com/
http://www.guardian.co.uk/medicine/story/0,,1881748,00.html
http://www.dh.gov.uk/AboutUs/MinistersAndDepartmentLeaders/ChiefMedicalOfficer/Features/FeaturesArticle/fs/en?CONTENT_ID=4102997&chk=OcYuEL

The World Health Organization's Influenza Pandemic Task Force (IPTF), which will advise the world body on how best to respond to health issues of global concern related to bird flu and pandemic influenza, has held its first meeting in Geneva.
http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/notes/2006/np28/en/index.html
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ETM Legal Systems
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"Political Parties of the Republic of Tajikistan - 2006," outlines the platforms and programs of Tajikistan's eight registered political parties, as well as the legal background for their activities, and is available in Tajik, Russian and English.
http://www.osce.org/item/20774.html

The UK Association of Police Officers has called for information between police, social services and health professionals to reduce violent deaths and serious assaults.
http://www.acpo.police.uk/pressrelease.asp?PR_GUID={291F13E2-9057-4F6B-8EB4-F8521062879D}

The annual inspection of Pentonville prison in North London reiterated their finding from 2005:
"...a prison built in 1843, and in which two prisoners routinely share cells designed for one, is unsuitable to house prisoners in the twenty-first century. Much of the fabric of the institution (boilers, kitchens and water supplies, for example) is beyond its useful life and unable to cope with the needs of over 1,200 prisoners and 600 staff. In our opinion, only a major program of investment, either on-site or elsewhere, would fully alleviate the problems which the prison faces and which will only get worse with the passage of time". Even worse are the more graphic findings of an unannounced inspection in June.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/prisons/story/0,,1882790,00.html
http://society.guardian.co.uk/crimeandpunishment/story/0,,1882609,00.html
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/london/5386530.stm
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,6-2379987,00.html
http://www.imb.gov.uk/annual-reports/1857341/pentonville-06
http://inspectorates.homeoffice.gov.uk/hmiprisons/
http://www.hmprisonservice.gov.uk/prisoninformation/locateaprison/prison.asp?id=632,15,2,15,632,0

The US Senate Committee on Armed Services held a hearing to receive testimony on military voting and the federal Voting Assistance Program.
http://armed-services.senate.gov/e_witnesslist.cfm?id=2409
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ETM Natural Resources
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The United Nations environment agency calls for better balance between trade and natural resources to guarantee sustainability for future generations. http://www.unep.org/Documents.Multilingual/Default.asp?DocumentID=487&ArticleID=5360&l=en

Botswana addressed the UN General Assembly on the need for international cooperation to ensure that the diamond industry can foster development. Foreign Minister Lieutenant General Mompati Merafhe said that the African diamonds had been long associated with conflict, but prudent management of diamond revenues can instead be used effectively to educate people, provide potable water and healthcare, and build critical infrastructures such as roads, telephones, and electricity. 65 percent of the world's diamonds come from African countries.
http://www.un.org/webcast/ga/61/pdfs/botswana-e.pdf

Independent journalist Rafael Marques published "Operation Kissonde: the diamonds of humiliation and misery". The report raises serious concerns about killings, torture, beatings and other abuses by security companies employed by diamond firms in Angola
http://www.business-humanrights.org/Documents/Angola-diamonds

Brazil's Acre state in the Amazon has established a nursery for mahogany, acai, Brazil nut, palm, and other trees that it will provide to cattle ranchers, who must reforest up to a third of their land.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/nolpda/ifs_news/hi/newsid_5361000/5361840.stm?ifs=1
http://www.wwf.org.br/ (in Portuguese)
http://www.ac.gov.br/ (in Portuguese)
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ETM Populations
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The International Day of Older Persons was marked on 25 September. In Europe, the over 65-years-of-age population will double between 1995 and 2050, with nearly a third of the population aged 65 or older n 2050.
http://www.europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=STAT/06/129&format=HTML

Standard and Poor's issued two reports regarding the aging population in the US.
"As The U.S. Population Ages, Health Insurers Are Seeking Out The Opportunities Among The Challenges" is an article from Standard and Poor's that says: "...when the health care system becomes strained by higher costs related to aging, health insurers' most pressing fear is that legislators might use a heavier hand in mandating benefits, setting rates, and establishing underwriting practices. Were that to happen, basic but limited health coverage could become the norm. Or perhaps legislators will be motivated to move to commoditized, standardized health plans - such as the Federal Employee Plan - for all." "An Aging Population Challenges U.S. State Budgets And Renews Interest In Health Care Reform" warns that large employers that will face a surge in payments related to pension, post-retirement health care costs, and additional benefits as retirements accelerate, they also have other unique funding responsibilities that will require significant future resources.
http://www.standardandpoors.com

The US Comptroller General addressed a number of related issues in his presentation to the Southern Employee Benefits Conference.
http://www.gao.gov/cghome/d061108cg.pdf
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ETM Social Responsibility
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The World Trade Organization's Public Forum held a session on Corporate Social Responsibility and the Doha Development Round: Are there any Win-Win Opportunities for the Private Sector and Developing Countries? Panelists from NGOs and public companies contributed numerous creative suggestions.
http://www.wto.org/english/forums_e/public_forum_e/session_25_num11_e.htm

G. Jeffrey MacDonald, a Christian Science Monitor correspondent, describes how to take an ethical vacation in "Travel Globally, Spend Locally".
http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0925/p13s02-litr.html
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ETM Technology
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Highlighting concerns over biotechnology, a new investigation has contributed more details in the disastrous monoclonal antibody clinical trial that left six men seriously ill. New documents indicate that, among other causative issues, the drug used was administered 15 times more quickly than it had been in animal safety studies.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2087-2372235_3,00.html
http://www.emergingthreatmonitor.com/2006/05/ETM2801.shtml
http://www.mhra.gov.uk/home/idcplg?IdcService=SS_GET_PAGE&useSecondary=true&ssDocName=CON2023515&ssTargetNodeId=389
http://www.parexel.com/news_and_events/press_releasesSingle.asp?id=236
http://www.the-scientist.com/news/display/23275/
http://www.nwlh.nhs.uk/news/item.cfm?id=97
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/4989810.stm

The National Research Council Committee to Review the National Nanotechnology Initiative describes initial progress in overseeing the government's role in developing nanotechnologies. The report is generally positive but points to improvement needed in determining potential safety risks, and tracking economic returns on federal funding. The report recommends expanding funds to establish safety standards for consumers, workers, and the environment. Knowledge of the effects of engineered nanomaterials is in its infancy.
http://www.nationalacademies.org/morenews/20060925.html

China has completed a successful test of a thermonuclear fusion reactor, an "artificial sun", that could revolutionize energy production.
http://english.people.com.cn//200609/28/eng20060928_307241.html

The UK Information Commissioner has released guidance for individuals and organizations regarding use of Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) tags and application of data protection laws.
http://www.ico.gov.uk/upload/documents/pressreleases/2006/rfid_advice_on_tagging.pdf

A French medical team successfully operated on a human volunteer on an aircraft specially designed for weightlessness. This is the first test that surgery could be performed in space.
http://www.esa.int/esaHS/SEM8WZ8YFDD_research_0.html

Los Alamos National Laboratory, the National Institute of Standards and Technology, and Albion College set a new record for distributing keys for quantum encryption, the most secure method known for protecting the privacy of information. The team generated and transmitted secret quantum keys over 184.6 kilometers (km) of fiber-optic cable, beating the previous record of 122 km.
http://www.nist.gov/public_affairs/releases/qkd_release.html

University of Manchester (UK) researchers are investigating whether spinach and other vegetables rich in lutein can help prevent age-related macular degeneration (AMD), a leading cause of blindness in the west.
http://www.manchester.ac.uk/aboutus/news/pressreleases/spinach/

These reports form the US Government Accountability Office address vulnerabilities, risks, and opportunities in space:
"NASA: Sound Management and Oversight Key to Addressing Crew Exploration Vehicle Project Risks"
http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-06-1127T
"Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites: Steps Remain in Incorporating Lessons Learned from Other Satellite Programs.
http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-06-993
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ETM Weapons (WMD, Proliferation)
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The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has called on UN Member States to provide the political, financial and technical support necessary to prevent nuclear and radiological terrorism.
http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/News/2006/gc_resolutions.html

Iran and the EU ended talks over Iran's nuclear program. There was little movement and both pessimism regarding the outcome and hope for progress soon. Avner Cohen suggests that Iran may be mimicking the Israeli model of nuclear development, sharing "secrecy, concealment, ambiguity, double talk and denial". ISIS lays out a list of suspected Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) violations and other issues.
http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=tnBusinessNews&storyID=nL28446243
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/world/4222853.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/27/AR2006092700921.html
http://www.isis-online.org/publications/iran/irannptviolations.pdf

Center for International Policy Asia Program Director Selig Harrison reports that on a visit to North Korea he heard from their nuclear negotiation team that North Korea will shut down the Yongbyon reactor early to retrieve fuel rods for up to six additional weapons.  They believe this will increase pressure on the US to resolve the stalemate. Despite having the weapons, US officials believe that North Korea's long-range missile capabilities do not extend to the US. More worrying are indications that North Korea is willing to export a nuclear device or material to other countries or non-state actors.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/23/AR2006092300139.html
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-korea23sep23,1,4511977.story?
http://www.nti.org/d%5Fnewswire/issues/2006/9/28/a8406a79%2Defa5%2D4115%2Db3ea%2D3b2f06bc0a09.html

Russia's parliament has approved the International Convention for the Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism.

Mitutoyo Corporation Vice Chairman Norio Takatsuji, President Kazuasaku Tezuka, and two of their colleagues have been arrested for illegally exporting precision measuring devices that can be used in nuclear weapons production.
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2006/09/28/asia/AS_GEN_Japan_Nuclear_Exports.php

International efforts to stem nuclear proliferation have made notable progress but lack in many areas. A determined country can steal a nuclear weapons program, and the IAEA have weaknesses that include poor access to non-NPT countries India, Israel, North Korea and Pakistan. Even NPT member nations have bot brought into force the additional, most avoid serious review, and a personnel crisis is looming as many personnel are retiring. These are among the topics discussed in a hearing by the House Committee on Government Reform, Subcommittee on National Security, Emerging Threats, and International Relations
http://reform.house.gov/NSETIR/Hearings/EventSingle.aspx?EventID=50879

US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) analysis of the anthrax used in attacks five years ago seems to be less sophisticated than originally believed, widening the number of suspects in the incident, which killed five people. Citing previous leaks, the FBI has refused a House Intelligence Committee request for a briefing on the investigation's progress.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/24/AR2006092401014.html
http://www.twincities.com/mld/pioneerpress/15577458.htm
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2006/09/28/america/NA_GEN_US_FBI_Anthrax.php

The Central African Republic has acceded to the Chemical Weapons Convention.
http://www.opcw.org/pressreleases/2006/PR63_2006.html

In her address to the UN General Assembly, Nigeria's Foreign Minister U. Joy Ogwa praised the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) for adopting the Convention on Small Arms this June. She contrasted this with the inability of the UN Review Conference on Small Arms and Light Weapons failure to agree on a final document, including a similar ban on arms suppliers and non-state actors.
http://www.un.org/webcast/ga/61/pdfs/nigeria-e.pdf

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5. Critical Infrastructure Monitor

Critical Infrastructure Monitor gives you the background and analysis missing from these news briefings. Subscriptions can be purchased from our online store:
TAMNI Publications

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CIM Agriculture and Food
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The Global Online Research in Agriculture project has been expanded to make available the leading food and agriculture journals at little or no cost to more than 100 of the world's poorest countries.
http://www.fao.org/newsroom/en/news/2006/1000406/index.html
http://www.aginternetwork.org/en/

The second annual International Symposium on Agroterrorism took place this week in Kansas City. The meeting focused on the continuing threat of an attack, which could have devastating impacts in both rural and urban communities. Following are the event announcements and press coverage:
http://www.fbi-isa.org/index.htm
http://www.fbi.gov/page2/september06/agroterror092506.htm
http://edition.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/americas/09/25/agroterrorism/
http://westernfarmpress.com/news/09-01-06-plans-essential-agroterrorism/
http://www.mininggazette.com/stories/articles.asp?articleID=3701
http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0929/p08s02-comv.html
http://www.cattlenetwork.com/content.asp?contentid=71856
http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansascity/news/local/15634323.htm
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/chi-0609300079sep30,1,3620534.story

"Fish Dish: exposing the unacceptable face of seafood" is a new WWF report that addresses the destructive, illegal and wasteful fishing which lies behind favorite seafood dishes.
http://www.panda.org/news_facts/newsroom/index.cfm?uNewsID=80820

Similarly, the European Commission has called for effective international action against destructive deep sea fishing practices.
http://www.europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=IP/06/1291&format=HTML

Bangladesh is working with micro credit facilities to aid agrarian reform and rural transformation.
http://nation.ittefaq.com/artman/publish/article_31155.shtml

India is investing in rural infrastructure and agriculture in Assam to help turn around the economy.
http://indiaenews.com/2006-09/24180-rs300-bn-investments-around-assam-economy.htm

Gaza's agricultural sector has been devastated by an economic boycott against the Palestinian Authority.
http://www.irinnews.org/report.asp?ReportID=55749

The UK Pesticide Residues Committee has completed their most recent testing, finding that pesticide residues in excess of legal limits increased to 1.7 percent of cases, a 30 percent increase over 2005 because more exotic foods were being tested. A further third has traces within legal limits.
http://www.pesticides.gov.uk/

The US Food and Drug Agency has released the findings of its investigation into an outbreak of E. coli in spinach. As of September 26, a total of 183 persons had been infected from 26 states. Among the ill persons, 95 (52 percent) were hospitalized, 29 (16 percent) had hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS), and one person died. All spinach implicated in the current outbreak has traced back to Natural Selection Foods LLC of San Juan Bautista, California.
http://www.fda.gov/bbs/topics/NEWS/2006/NEW01474.html
http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm55d926a1.htm
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CIM Banking and Finance
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The China International Banking Convention 2006, held in September, featured a keynote address by Alastair Clark, adviser to the governor of the Bank of England. He described the differences between the UK's regulatory model and the current systems in China, pointing to different regulatory requirements based on the differences in the economies.
https://www.theasianbanker.com/A556C5/Update.nsf/webAnalysis/A6D7BED4AEED0DE9482571F5002EAF71?Opendocument

The Central Bank of Nigeria has waived processing fees for some community banks to facilitate conversion to micro-finance banks before a 31 December 2007 deadline.
http://www.cenbank.org/OUT/CIRCULARS/OFID/2006/OFID-07-2006.PDF

Heise Security reports that many internet banking sites have not addressed frame-spoofing vulnerabilities, making them more vulnerable to phishing frauds. Cross-site scripting attacks also continue to present a threat.
http://www.heise-security.co.uk/articles/76590
http://www.heise-security.co.uk/news/78615

US federal financial regulators issued final guidance to address risks posed by nontraditional mortgages that allow borrowers to defer repayment of principal and sometimes interest. In particular, management should:
* Ensure that loan terms and underwriting standards are consistent with prudent lending practices, including consideration of a borrower's repayment capacity
* Recognize that many nontraditional mortgage loans, particularly when they have risk-layering features, are untested in a stressed environment. These products warrant strong risk management standards, capital levels commensurate with the risk, and an allowance for loan and lease losses that reflects the collectibility of the portfolio
* Ensure that consumers have sufficient information to clearly understand loan terms and associated risks prior to making a product or payment choice.
http://www.occ.gov/ftp/release/2006-107a(Guidance).pdf
http://www.occ.gov/ftp/release/2006-107b(Illustrations).pdf
http://www.occ.gov/ftp/release/2006-107c(Addendum).pdf

The US Senate Banking Committee held a hearing regarding An Update on the New Basel Capital Accord". Large banks expressed concern that the new standards would make them less competitive with Europe and make foreign acquisitions easier.
http://banking.senate.gov/index.cfm?Fuseaction=Hearings.Detail&HearingID=241
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CIM Chemical
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The US Congress approved chemical security legislation that if passed would require establishment of risk-based performance standards and Department of Homeland Security regulations to fulfill these. The chemistry industry supports the proposed legislation in its current form, lending credence to critics that it is a weak bill that lacks enforcement provisions. No further action on the bill will be taken prior to the mid-term elections.
http://markey.house.gov/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2183&Itemid=73
http://hsgac.senate.gov/index.cfm?FuseAction=PressReleases.Detail&Affiliation=C&PressRelease_id=1340&Month=9&Year=2006
http://www.americanchemistry.com/s_acc/sec_news_article.asp?CID=206&DID=3897
http://sev.prnewswire.com/oil-energy/20060929/DCF06429092006-1.html
http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/z?c109:S.2145:
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CIM Cybersecurity
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Microsoft has broken its normal release schedule to release a security patch to address a critical Internet Explorer vulnerability that has been increasingly exploited. An unofficial patch from the Zeroday Emergency Response Team helped apply pressure for an official fix. The underlying flaw in Microsoft's Direct Animation Path ActiveX control has not been fixed.
http://www.microsoft.com/technet/security/Bulletin/MS06-055.mspx
http://isc.sans.org/diary.php?storyid=1727
http://secunia.com/advisories/21989
http://isotf.org/zert
http://www.symantec.com/outbreak/vml_vulnerability.html
http://www.f-secure.com/weblog/archives/archive-092006.html#00000974

Manuals for programming Automated Teller Machines (ATMs) are available online, suggesting a number of potential avenues for would-be hackers.
http://www.eweek.com/article2/0,1895,2018674,00.asp

http://www.wired.com/news/technology/0,71832-0.html?tw=wn_technology_1

Trend Micro released InterCloud Security Service to specifically the increased threat of botnets. To address these networks of remotely controlled compromised machines, the new service incorporates a Behavioral Analysis Security Engine (BASE) that analyzed application and network infrastructure data to detect aberrant botnet-related behavior that identifies and isolated them in real time.
http://www.trendmicro.com/en/about/news/pr/archive/2006/pr092506.htm

Symantec's latest Internet Security Threat Report shows that home users are increasingly targeted for financial gain because they are more vulnerable. In addition to increasing desktop attacks, the report cites rising use of evasive techniques, including an 81 percent increase in phishing attacks. Symantec documented 2,249 vulnerabilities in the first six months of 2006, an 18 percent increase over the prior period and the highest number ever recorded. The window of exposure was down from 50 to 28 days. Denial of Service attacks in the US accounted for 54 percent of the worldwide total. The report predicts future increases in polymorphism and other evasive techniques, increased exploits of web 2.0 concepts, and vulnerabilities from fuzzer programs that look for code vulnerabilities.
http://www.symantec.com/about/news/release/article.jsp?prid=20060925_02

" No Data Secure With iPods in the Workplace" discusses the risk to confidential information presented by small portable devices.
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/rYZ8dTA7z6SnhR/No-Data-Secure-With-iPods-in-the-Workplace.xhtml

European governments, having established best practices in data protection, are turning attention to updating legislation to address attacks against information systems.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/bbc_parliament/4651572.stm
http://www.bmj.bund.de/enid/2f99c147790664d0475a936f509414f9,792f74707265737365617274696b656c5f6964092d0932353638093a096d795f79656172092d0932303036093a096d795f6d6f6e7468092d093039093a095f7472636964092d0932353638/Presse/Pressemitteilungen_58.html
http://www.bmj.bund.de/media/archive/1317.pdf (In German).
http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&articleId=9003516&source=rss_news10)
http://www.heise.de/english/newsticker/news/78488

A UK investigation found credit care, passport, and other personal data are being stolen from Indian call centers and sold to the highest bidder.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2087-2383227,00.html

General Electric announced that an authorized employee had his laptop stolen from a hotel room. It contained names and Social Security numbers of 50,000 current and former workers.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=abYZEjwImupI

Six laptops containing data on some 9,000 patients were stolen from Nagasaki hospital.
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/20060924TDY02007.htm

A computer containing personal information on 16,000 motorists was stolen from North Carolina's Division of Motor Vehicles.
http://www.newsobserver.com/102/story/491642.html

The US House Committee on Energy and Commerce, Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations, held two days of hearings on "Internet Data Brokers and Pretexting: Who Has Access to Your Private Records?" The hearings were launched in connection with the Hewlett-Packard board spying scandal. HP officials provided little or no information. Telephone companies explained the difficulties in security, particularly in mobile communications, where customers have refused to use passwords and other protections. Several lawsuits have been launched.
http://energycommerce.house.gov/108/Hearings/09292006hearing2047/hearing.htm
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-060929hp-story,1,3544633.story
http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D8KEMAG00.htm
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CIM Dams and Bridges
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Angola and Namibia have decided to revive development of the Epua dam that would feed a hydrological power plant in northwest Namibia, where the Kuene River forms a natural border between the two countries. Local environmental groups object to the plan for its impact on the local population and risks presented by climate change.
http://www.irinnews.org/report.asp?ReportID=55696

The reservoir dam in Nigeria's northern town of Gusau is the main source of drinking water for the state capital. Heavy rainfall has caused the dam to collapse.
http://www.mg.co.za/articlePage.aspx?articleid=285453

In Republic of Congo the Imboulou Dam project is a key component in providing electricity to all parts of the country.
http://www.irinnews.org/report.asp?ReportID=55748
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CIM Defense Industrial Base
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As the US Congress wrapped up business before mid-term elections, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) released several reports related to Defense Department personnel and project practices:
"U.S. Aerospace Industry: Progress in Implementing Aerospace Commission Recommendations, and Remaining Challenges"
http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-06-920
"DOD Civilian Personnel: Greater Oversight and Quality Assurance Needed to Ensure Force Health Protection and Surveillance for Those Deployed"
http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-06-1085
"DOD Contracting: Efforts Needed to Address Air Force Commercial Acquisition Risk"
http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-06-995
"Iraq Contract Costs: DOD Consideration of Defense Contract Audit Agency's Findings"
http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-06-1132
"Interagency Contracting: Improved Guidance, Planning, and Oversight Would Enable the Department of Homeland Security to Address Risks"
http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-06-996
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CIM Emergency Services
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The US Government Accountability Office (GAO) released "Hurricane Katrina: Status of Hospital Inpatient and Emergency Departments in the Greater New Orleans Area", which addresses the lack of availability of hospital inpatient care and emergency department services in the greater New Orleans area.
http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-06-1003

That is only one example of what the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) explains is a chronic problem. "Staffing, Capacity, and Ambulance Diversion in Emergency Departments: United States, 2003-04" finds:
*  An average of 4,500 EDs were in operation in United States during 2003 and 2004.
* Crowding in metropolitan EDs was associated with a higher percentage of nursing vacancies, higher patient volume, and longer patient waiting and treatment durations.
* Over half the EDs saw fewer than 20,000 patients annually but one out of 10 had an annual visit volume of more than 50,000 patients.
* Most EDs used outside contracts to provide physicians (64.7 percent).
* Half of EDs in metropolitan areas had more than 5 percent of their nursing positions vacant.
* Approximately one-third of U.S. hospitals reported having to divert an ambulance to another emergency department due to overcrowding or staffing shortages at their ED.
http://www.cdc.gov/od/oc/media/pressrel/r060927.htm
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/ad/ad376.pdf

The US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) conducted a study of portable radios at elevated thermal conditions, representing situations firefighters sometimes face with blazes as high in temperature as 500 degrees F (260 degrees C). Testing revealed that although firefighting gear and self-contained breathing apparatus can allow firefighters to safely work for a limited time in such conditions, they can't rely on their unprotected handheld radios even in routine firefighting situations, much less in higher-temperature fires, where good communications are especially crucial. Based on the findings, NIST will develop test methods and recommendations for optimal design of portable radios in elevated thermal conditions.
http://www.fire.nist.gov/bfrlpubs/NIST_TN_1477.pdf

The Public Safety Committee in Los Angeles, California, reports that it is one of the most understaffed in the US, and plans a staff increase of nearly 50 percent.
http://www.latimes.com/business/careers/work/la-me-reorg26sep26,1,1114436.story?coll=la-headlines-business-careers

The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health has released draft guidelines for comment regarding "Standardized Postmortem Examination Guidelines for Individuals Dying After Environmental Exposures Related to the Collapse of the World Trade Center on September 11, 2001"
http://www.cdc.gov/niosh/topics/wtc/WTC_examguidel-draft.html
http://www.nydailynews.com/front/story/454223p-382146c.html
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CIM Energy
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Speaking at the World Trade Organization's Public Forum, Ted Turner suggested that a focus on biofuels could generate enough global demand to break the current deadlock on world trade talks.
http://www.wto.org/english/forums_e/public_forum_e/session_25_num2_e.htm

Dutch, Japanese, UK and US officials  have all raised concerns over the future of the Sakhalin-2 energy project. They have called on Russia to explain the political dispute that has arisen, and explains its position on the strategic plan. The latest wrench in the works is Russia's revocation of environmental permits previously granted and insistence on another full environmental investigation.  Sakhalen-2 is due for completion in 2008, when it will be the largest integrated oil and gas field in the world.
http://www.sakhalinenergy.com/en/
http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/09/25/business/rusoil.php

Egypt plans to restart its civilian nuclear power program with a new plant at El-Dabaa on the Mediterranean coast. Egypt maintains a small experimental nuclear reactor, but closed its nuclear power program after the Chernobyl accident.

Iran and Russia have agreed their schedule for supplies of fuel in the Russian-built Bushehr reactor that is scheduled to begin operating next year.
http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticleNew.asp?xfile=data/middleeast/2006/September/middleeast_September579.xml§ion=middleeast
http://www.sharewatch.com/story.php?storynumber=214102
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1159125866396&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

Iran has told Japan to finalize the Azadegan oil field development deal or lose the job to a domestic contractor.

The Republic of Congo has begun to build an energy grid to link the north and south of the country, incorporating the Imboulou Dam project. They estimate that some 75 percent of the urban population and 50 percent in rural areas will have electricity by 2015.
http://www.irinnews.org/report.asp?ReportID=55748

The Center for American Progress released "Energy Security in the 21st Century: A New National Strategy". The report identifies the most serious threats to homeland security as dependence on foreign oil and gas, proliferation threats posed by nuclear energy technologies, failure to failure to protect and modernize the global energy infrastructure, failure to combat climate change, and failure to foster cooperative energy security relationships.
http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2006/09/energy_security.html

Given increased use of wind energy, the US Department of Defense has investigated the impact on air defense and missile warning radar, finding that careful siting and mitigation processes need to be taken into account to avoid any impact on military readiness.
http://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/pdfs/WindFarmReport.pdf

The US Department of Energy's Inspector General called for improvements in cybersecurity, including addressing deficiencies previously identified that have not been addressed. The department should complete an information systems inventory, perform necessary systems certifications and accreditations, devise business continuity plans, and address exiting weaknesses to prevent unauthorized system modification of the loss or disclosure of information.
http://ig.energy.gov/documents/IG-0738(1).pdf
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CIM Information Technology
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The Pew Internet and the American Life Project released a report on the future of the internet and its impact on social, political, and economic life in the year 2020. A majority believe that:
* A low-cost global network will be thriving and creating new opportunities in a "flattening" world.
* Humans will remain in charge of technology, even as more activity is automated and "smart agents" proliferate. However, a significant 42 percent of survey respondents were pessimistic about humans? ability to control the technology in the future. This significant majority agreed that dangers and dependencies will grow beyond our ability to stay in charge of technology. This was one of the major surprises in the survey.
* Virtual reality will be compelling enough to enhance worker productivity and also spawn new addiction problems.
* Tech "refuseniks" will emerge as a cultural group characterized by their choice to live off the network. Some will do this as a benign way to limit information overload, while others will commit acts of violence and terror against technology-inspired change.
* People will wittingly and unwittingly disclose more about themselves, gaining some benefits in the process even as they lose some privacy.
* English will be a universal language of global communications, but other languages will not be displaced. Indeed, many felt other languages such as Mandarin, would grow in prominence
http://www.pewinternet.org/PPF/r/188/report_display.asp

On Sept. 26, 2006, the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) released three draft information technology security publications for public comment:
* Special Publication (SP) 800-54, Border Gateway Protocol Security
* SP 800-82, Guide to Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) and Industrial Control Systems Security
* SP 800-98, Guidance for Securing Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) Systems.
http://csrc.nist.gov/publications/drafts.html

Concern over portable computer batteries grew last week following a Lenovo ThinkPad that self-immolated at Los Angeles airport. Thinkpads use more than one type of battery, and Sony is investigating whether one of its components was involved. A similar incident occurred with an HP notebook. Toshiba has announced a recall of some 830,000 batteries.
http://news.com.com/2100-1044_3-6117833.html
http://www.reghardware.co.uk/2006/09/25/man_saves_laptop/
http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20060919-7774.html
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CIM National Monuments and Icons
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The US Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs held a hearing on "Securing the National Capital Region: An Examination of the NCR's Strategic Plan"
http://hsgac.senate.gov/index.cfm?Fuseaction=Hearings.Detail&HearingID=403
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CIM Nuclear Reactors, Materials, and Waste
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Drilling in BHP Billiton's Olympic Dam uranium deposit in South Australia has increased the resource estimate by more than 11 per cent. At more than 1.5 million tone, this represents about 40 percent of the world's known uranium resources. The mine also produces copper and gold.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/drilling-reveals-far-more-uranium-copper-and-gold-at-olympic-dam/2006/09/25/1159036472874.html

Note this transcript of the Arms Control Association press conference on the North Korean nuclear challenge:
http://www.armscontrol.org/events/20060919_NKPanel_transcript.asp
http://www.armscontrol.org/country/northkorea/

Russia has agreed to remove spend fuel from a Serbian research reactor no longer in use. They are also holding discussions with IAEA officials regarding the creation of a central uranium enrichment facility for all countries.
http://english.pravda.ru/print/world/84653-reactor-0
http://en.rian.ru/russia/20060928/54341691.html

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is responsible for overseeing the 103 commercial nuclear power plants to ensure safe operation. The US Government Accountability Office (GAO) reviewed NRC's activities and issued its findings in "Nuclear Regulatory Commission: Oversight of Nuclear Power Plant Safety Has Improved, but Refinements Are Needed". The report analyzed operations and recommended aggressive monitoring, evaluation, and additional measures to increase the effectiveness of its safety culture, and make more information on it public.
http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-06-1029

The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) and the Environmental Measurements Laboratory (EML) tested how quickly data can be obtained from radioactive samples after an accident or attack, and how accurate the results are likely to be. Considering how to improve response to a radiological emergency, the authors recommended developing informational guides on estimating measurement uncertainties,  increased technical exchange, development of guidelines, and other measures.
http://www.nist.gov/public_affairs/newsfromnist/newsfromnist_emerg_resp.htm
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CIM Public Health and Healthcare
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The Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the European Conference of Ministers of Transport (ECMT) released "Young Drivers: The Road to Safety". The study identifies road crashes as the single biggest killer of 15-24 year olds in industrial countries. Among recommendations to address this they call for:
* Oblige young drivers to spend time driving with an experienced driver in addition to taking driving lessons before a test. When Sweden raised the number of hours of driving practice required by law from 50 to 120 hours in 1993, the number of crashed involving young novice drivers fell by 40% within two years.
* Impose a maximum blood alcohol content (BAC) of 0.2 g/l on novice drivers, since young drivers have been shown to be more susceptible to the effects of alcohol than older drivers. This is less than half the 0.5 g/l BAC limit recommended by the ECMT and applied across most of Europe.
* Impose probationary periods on young drivers during which they can lose their license and/or have to undergo further training if they break the rules of the road. If drivers are penalized on a system of demerit points, the threshold for removing the license should be set lower for novice drivers.
* Enforce the rules of the roads rigorously for all drivers, with a particular focus on infractions commonly committed by young drivers, such as not wearing a seat-belt, driving under the influence of alcohol or drugs and breaking the speed limit.
* Focus training more on creating safe drivers, and less on helping people pass their driving test.
*Explore the potential of new technologies, including black boxes and smart keys, to reduce dangerous driving.
http://www.cemt.org/JTRC/WorkingGroups/YoungDrivers/YoungDriversSummary.pdf

The Pan American Health Organization released its annual report, focusing on closing the gaps in health in the least protected populations of the Americas, where unequal access to services and disparities between rural and urban areas continue to mar the health systems in North and South America and the Caribbean.
http://www.paho.org/English/DD/PIN/pr060926.htm
http://www.paho.org/english/gov/cd/cd47index-e.htm

US Federal District Judge Jack Weinstein has ruled in the case of Schwab, et al v. Philip Morris et al that the case can proceed as a class action. The lawsuit in question accuses tobacco companies of leading smokers to falsely believe that "light" cigarettes are less harmful.
http://www.nyed.uscourts.gov/pub/rulings/cv/2004/04cv1945mo.pdf
http://www.nyed.uscourts.gov/pub/rulings/cv/2004/04cv1945mo-app.pdf
http://www.philipmorrisusa.com/en/health_issues/low_tar_cigarettes.asp?source=home_fca1

The US Government Accountability Office (GAO) released "Hurricane Katrina: Status of Hospital Inpatient and Emergency Departments in the Greater New Orleans Area", which addresses the lack of availability of hospital inpatient care and emergency department services in the greater New Orleans area.
http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-06-1003
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CIM Telecommunications
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The Mobile Top Level Domain (MTLD) has begun open registration for mobile specific website addresses with the new .mobi domain. MTLD points out that there are four times as many mobile phones as there are PCs in the world.
http://pc.mtld.mobi/
http://www.iana.org/root-whois/mobi.htm

The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) and the Commonwealth Telecommunication Organization (CTO) released a roadmap for information and communications technology in disaster response, focusing on the Caribbean.
http://www.itu.int/newsroom/press_releases/2006/18.html

The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission recently extended its mandate to key fixed network services, including broader regulatory questions related to emerging market, technological, and network development. Telstra is Australia's largest telecommunications company, and it has been at odds with the expanded regulatory environment. The latest battle is a disagreement over government plans to appoint former communications executive and Prime Ministerial advisor Geoff Cousins to the board. Telstra recommended against voting for him, and said that his appointment could jeopardize the possible sale of the Australian Government's remaining shares in Telstra, known as T3, which has been scheduled for 23 October..
http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/telstra-bosss-87m-pay-day/2006/09/25/1159036455906.html
http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/telstra-battle-over-board-appointment/2006/09/25/1159036449467.html
http://www.accc.gov.au/content/index.phtml/itemId/719844
http://www.telstra.com.au/

Indian telecommunications companies are disappointed in higher than expected prices for 3G licenses.
http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=141766

Philippines legislators call for the government to consider using voice over internet protocol to lower telecommunications costs.
http://www.sunstar.com.ph/static/man/2006/10/01/news/lawmaker.urges.gov.t.to.tap.voice.over.internet.protocol.to.cut.on.costs.html

The UK Information Commissioner (ICO) has ordered Ofcom to provide all data on mobile phone base stations held within its Sitefinder database, which was established to research possible health risks from mobile phones. Ofcom refused the original request on grounds of national security, public safety and intellectual property rights. ICO determined that database rights and copyright exist, but should not prevent information disclosure, and that Ofcom has not presented sufficient evidence to suggest a particular risk to the security of base stations. http://www.ico.gov.uk//upload/documents/pressreleases/2006/ic_rules_against_ofcom_on_mobile_phone_base_stations_13090?.pdf

The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe paid TelOne's Intelsat bill, restoring internet access to the country.
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CIM Transportation
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Talks between the EU and US on sharing passenger information have broken down.
http://www.europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=MEMO/06/360&format=HTML
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/5390074.stm

The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and its International Explosives Technical Commission are developing a new list of prohibited items, addressing new risks uncovered in recent airliner terror plots.
http://www.icao.int

Forty years after development began, Thailand has opened a new state-of-the art airport serving Bangkok. Suvarnabhumi Airport has opened without any major hitches, welcoming thousands of passengers.
http://www.bangkokairportonline.com/
http://www.pattayadailynews.com/shownews.php?IDNEWS=0000001459
http://www.forbes.com/home/feeds/afx/2006/09/29/afx3054271.html

World Maritime Day was marked on 28 September.
http://www.worldmaritimeday.com/

Dominican Republic's Port of Caucedo, Spain's Port of Freeport, the Bahamas, Jamaica, and Taiwan will all implement the Container Security Initiative (CSI).
http://www.cbp.gov/xp/cgov/newsroom/news_releases/09292006_8.xml
http://www.cbp.gov/xp/cgov/newsroom/news_releases/09292006_7.xml
http://www.cbp.gov/xp/cgov/newsroom/news_releases/09292006_6.xml
http://www.cbp.gov/xp/cgov/newsroom/news_releases/09282006_1.xml
http://www.cbp.gov/xp/cgov/newsroom/news_releases/09262006_2.xml

Estonia has launched a criminal inquiry after finding toxic waste on board the Greek-owned, Panamanian-registered tanker, Probo Koala, leased by Dutch company Trafigura Beheer BV. The ship has been at the center of an environmental disaster in Ivory Coast. Greenpeace had blockaded the ship for three days prior to a request from Ivory Coast and decision by Estonian authorities to proceed with the investigation.
http://www.greenpeace.org/international/news/estonia-seizes-probo-koala-060927
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L27420901.htm
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,9,00.html

Facing the World Health Organization forecast that road traffic injuries will be the most prevalent cause of worldwide death or injury-related disability and would rank sixth among all causes of death, Michelin has focused this year's Challenge on "Sharing the Road". It calls for innovative design to answer the challenge of vehicle safety.
http://www.michelinchallengedesign.com/MCD_2006/Site/mcd_news_sharing_road_2007.asp

Daimler-Chrysler sites technological innovations such as emergency braking and radar-based obstacle detection as ways to save lives, but point to adoption rates of only about five percent.
http://www.todaystrucking.com/news.cfm?intDocID=16725&login=anna%40tamni%2Ecom&datalogin=%28%3D12%3DJ%29%2C9OJ%40%20%0A
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CIM Water
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"Progress for Children: A Report Card on Water and Sanitation" is a new report from UNICEF. It says that although more than 1.2 billion people have gained access to safe drinking water since 1990, at least four of every 10 people still lack basic sanitation, contributing to the deaths from diarrhea of about 1.5 million children under the age of five each year
http://www.unicef.org/media/media_36034.html
http://www.unicef.org/progressforchildren/2006n5/index.html

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6. Disaster Reduction Monitor

News highlights from the past week are provided in this free email update, but detailed analysis, background information and source documents are only available to subscribers. Disaster Reduction Monitor subscriptions and other titles can be purchased here:
TAMNI Publications

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DRM Incidents
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At the end of last week more than 2,000 Bangladesh fishermen were missing following a severe storm in the Bay of Bengal. Officials report that more than 1,300 have now returned safely. 54 bodies have been found, and some 400 people are still missing.

Brazil's air force has located the wreckage of Gol Transportes Aereos Flight 1907 that went down over the Amazon rainforest with 155 people on board. All are presumed dead. Troops are attempting to reach the remote location.

Typhoon Xangsane struck the Philippines, killing at least 76 people, with some 69 still missing. Vietnam evacuated more than 180,000 people ahead of the typhoon's arrival. Despite this, at least ten lives were lost.

Near Ecuador's capital Quito a bus overturned on a mountain road, killing 47 of the 52 people on board. Five survivors, all children, are being treated in hospital.

At least 40 people died when the reservoir dam in Nigeria's northern town of Gusau collapsed following heavy rains.
http://www.mg.co.za/articlePage.aspx?articleid=285453

The death of all 24 helicopter passengers on a WWF helicopter is a both a personal tragedy and a catastrophic loss for Nepal's conservation efforts.
http://www.panda.org/about_wwf/where_we_work/asia_pacific/where/nepal/news/index.cfm?uNewsID=81560

The World Health Organization is investigating a likely outbreak of pneumonic plague in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. The highly contagious disease has a mortality rate of about 50 percent. There are 20 confirmed deaths and dozens more suspected.

In Pakistan, a head-on collision between a truck and a minibus traveling on a bridge killed 22 people, including four children, and seriously injured five.

Flooding in Niger has led to a cholera epidemic that has infected 206 and killed 21.

In northern Liberia an outbreak of Lassa fever, a hemorrhagic virus, has claimed seven lives, and there are reports of at least three other cases. Transmitted by rodents, the outbreak illustrates severe gaps in the country's health infrastructure.
http://www.irinnews.org/report.asp?ReportID=55761

Bush fires and arson attacks in Democratic Republic of Congo's southeastern gold mining province of Maniema have destroyed eight villages, leaving at least 10,000 people homeless.
http://www.irinnews.org/report.asp?ReportID=55723
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DRM Response and Recovery
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The Dutch Safety Board completed their investigation into the October 2005 fire at Amsterdam's Schiphol airport, killing 11 of 350 immigrants held at the airport detention center. Dutch Justice Minister Piet Hein Donner and Housing Minister Sybilla Dekker have resigned the government after accepting responsibility for avoidable safety faults amounting to negligence. The immigration service has also been criticized for not meeting its obligations. The most serious of many violations was the decision by prison guards to leave the door open, allowing the fire to spread rather than dying out.
http://www.onderzoeksraad.nl/nieuws/pb20060921.htm (in Dutch)
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2006/09/21/europe/EU_GEN_Netherlands_Airport_Fire.php
http://www.radionetherlands.nl/currentaffairs/min060921

Philippine authorities reported slow recovery operations after typhoon Milenyo. In addition to the predictable electricity outages, debris, fallen trees, and so on, they cite lack of cooperation and incidents of theft.
http://www.philstar.com/philstar/News200610010401.htm

The US National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) released preliminary information into the crash of Comair 5191 that killed 49 people. NTSB reported that there was about 45 seconds in which the pilots could have identified they were on the wrong runway.
http://www.ntsb.gov/Pressrel/2006/060925.htm

Florida's Insurance Commissioner announced a settlement with AIG insurance under which businesses will be refunded more than $13 million in excessive Terrorism Risk Insurance Act coverage.
http://www.floir.com/PressReleases/ViewMediaRelease.asp?ID=2445

The New Orleans Super Dome sports stadium became notorious as the last resort of Hurricane Katrina refugees. This week it has reopened with rock bands and a sellout football game. The New Orleans Saints won 23 to 3 over the Atlanta Falcons.
http://www.neworleanssaints.com/newsroomarticle.cfm?articleid=2942
http://www.superdome.com/

The US Government Accountability Office (GAO) released "Hurricanes Katrina and Rita: Unprecedented Challenges Exposed the Individuals and Households Program to Fraud and Abuse; Actions Needed to Reduce Such Problems in Future". The report recommends that the Federal Emergency Management Agency address the potential for fraud and abuse in the Individuals and Households Program of direct assistance by ensuring that payments go to recipients at valid addresses; establishing procedures to avoid duplicate lodging payments; increasing accountability over debit cards; and identifying ad recouping payments based on improper and potentially fraudulent applications.
http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-06-1013

Renewed conflict in Sri Lanka has stopped most tsunami reconstruction work.
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DRM Risks
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The UN World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecast a weak to moderate El Nino persisting into next year, but warned against trying to predict any impact at this early stage, particularly given warmer climate patterns overall.
http://www.wmo.ch/news/download/El%20Nino_La%20Nina%20Update%20(Sept%2006)%20(E).pdf

Indonesian emergency planners meeting over the weekend cited multiple vulnerabilities that include poor coordination, no permanent disaster management organization, and lack of funding.

Scientists say the hot toxic mud that has displaced 10,000 Indonesians in Java could be oozing from a mud volcano, rather than oil drilling in the area. They warn the flow could last a century, wiping mores villages off the map and polluting the ocean off Java as well as local rivers.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/indonesia/Story/0,,1881096,00.html

Knowledge@Wharton released "Flexibility in the Face of Disaster: Managing the Risk of Supply Chain Disruption". It explains:
" When it comes to global supply chains, the potential for disruption comes in many forms, from large-scale natural disasters and terrorist attacks to plant manufacturing fires, wide-spread electrical blackouts, and operational challenges such as shipping ports too small to handle the flow of goods coming into a country. Today's leaner, just-in-time globalized supply chains are more vulnerable than ever before to natural and man-made disasters -- a reality that creates greater demands on companies to keep supply chains flexible and integrate disruption risk management into every facet of supply chain operations."
http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=1548
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DRM Mitigation
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UN disaster experts and partners meeting in the Caribbean, still reeling from the 2005 hurricane season, issued a roadmap on how to use information and communication technologies to improve search-and-rescue missions, medical care and emergency relief.
http://www.itu.int/newsroom/press_releases/2006/18.html

The UN Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) has committed more than $170 million for more than 250 projects in 26 countries in the seven months since it was launched.
http://ochaonline.un.org/webpage.asp?Page=873&Lang=en

A new Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) survey, "Catastrophe Risk Management: Preparing for potential storms ahead", finds significant regional differences in catastrophe preparedness. North American companies were generally better prepared than in Europe of Asia-Pacific, with smaller companies particularly vulnerable. Those surveyed rated power outage as the most significant threat, followed by bird flu and extreme weather.
http://store.eiu.com/index.asp?layout=pr_story&press_id=1420001942&ref=pr_list

Terrorism insurance was the main subject at the US House Committee on Financial Services Subcommittee on Capital Markets, Insurance and Government Sponsored Enterprises and the Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations joint hearing on "Protecting Americans from Catastrophic Terrorism Risk".  Industry representatives and analysts all insisted that any long-term solution to terrorism exposure requires a government reinsurance backstop.
http://financialservices.house.gov/hearings.asp?formmode=detail&hearing=511
http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2006/09/27/72845.htm

A related report was released form the Government Accountability Office. "Terrorism Insurance: Measuring and Predicting Losses from Unconventional Weapons Is Difficult, but Some Industry Exposure Exists". It concludes unequivocally that a nuclear, biological, chemical, or radiological terrorist attack is uninsurable. It says, "despite the attempts by private insurers to exclude NBCR risks, the marketplace remains significantly vulnerable to a catastrophic NBCR event for the insurance lines of workers' compensation, health, life and fire (following for property coverage in  some states, where NBCR cannot be legally or practically excluded)."
http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-06-1081

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7. Recommended Reading

DECLASSIFIED KEY JUDGMENTS OF THE NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE "TRENDS IN GLOBAL TERRORISM: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES" DATED APRIL 2006

Key Judgments

United States-led counterterrorism efforts have seriously damaged the leadership of al-Qa?ida and disrupted its operations; however, we judge that al-Qa?ida will continue to pose the greatest threat to the Homeland and US interests abroad by a single terrorist organization. We also assess that the global jihadist movement?which includes al-Qa?ida, affiliated and independent terrorist groups, and emerging networks and cells?is spreading and adapting to counterterrorism efforts.

* Although we cannot measure the extent of the spread with precision, a large body of all-source reporting indicates that activists identifying themselves as jihadists, although a small percentage of Muslims, are increasing in both number and geographic dispersion.

* If this trend continues, threats to US interests at home and abroad will become more diverse, leading to increasing attacks worldwide.

* Greater pluralism and more responsive political systems in Muslim majority nations would alleviate some of the grievances jihadists exploit. Over time, such progress, together with sustained, multifaceted programs targeting the vulnerabilities of the jihadist movement and continued pressure on al-Qa?ida, could erode support for the jihadists.

We assess that the global jihadist movement is decentralized, lacks a coherent global strategy, and is becoming more diffuse. New jihadist networks and cells, with anti-American agendas, are increasingly likely to emerge. The confluence of shared purpose and dispersed actors will make it harder to find and undermine jihadist groups.

* We assess that the operational threat from self-radicalized cells will grow in importance to US counterterrorism efforts, particularly abroad but also in the Homeland.

* The jihadists regard Europe as an important venue for attacking Western interests. Extremist networks inside the extensive Muslim diasporas in Europe facilitate recruitment and staging for urban attacks, as illustrated by the 2004 Madrid and 2005 London bombings.

We assess that the Iraq jihad is shaping a new generation of terrorist leaders and operatives; perceived jihadist success there would inspire more fighters to continue the struggle elsewhere.

* The Iraq conflict has become the "cause celebre" for jihadists, breeding a deep resentment of US involvement in the Muslim world and cultivating supporters for the global jihadist movement. Should jihadists leaving Iraq perceive themselves, and be perceived, to have failed, we judge fewer fighters will be inspired to carry on the fight.

We assess that the underlying factors fueling the spread of the movement outweigh its vulnerabilities and are likely to do so for the duration of the timeframe of this Estimate.

* Four underlying factors are fueling the spread of the jihadist movement: (1) Entrenched grievances, such as corruption, injustice, and fear of Western domination, leading to anger, humiliation, and a sense of powerlessness; (2) the Iraq "jihad" (3) the slow pace of real and sustained economic, social, and political reforms in many Muslim majority nations; and (4) pervasive anti-US sentiment among most Muslims - all of which jihadists exploit.

Concomitant vulnerabilities in the jihadist movement have emerged that, if fully exposed and exploited, could begin to slow the spread of the movement. They include dependence on the continuation of Muslim-related conflicts, the limited appeal of the jihadists' radical ideology, the emergence of respected voices of moderation, and criticism of the violent tactics employed against mostly Muslim citizens.

* The jihadistsí greatest vulnerability is that their ultimate political solution - an ultra-conservative interpretation of sharia-based governance spanning the Muslim world - is unpopular with the vast majority of Muslims. Exposing the religious and political straitjacket that is implied by the jihadists' propaganda would help to divide them from the audiences they seek to persuade.

* Recent condemnations of violence and extremist religious interpretations by a few notable Muslim clerics signal a trend that could facilitate the growth of a constructive alternative to jihadist ideology: peaceful political activism. This also could lead to the consistent and dynamic participation of broader Muslim communities in rejecting violence, reducing the ability of radicals to capitalize on passive community support. In this way, the Muslim mainstream emerges as the most powerful weapon in the war on terror.

* Countering the spread of the jihadist movement will require coordinated multilateral efforts that go well beyond operations to capture or kill terrorist leaders.

If democratic reform efforts in Muslim majority nations progress over the next five years, political participation probably would drive a wedge between intransigent extremists and groups willing to use the political process to achieve their local objectives. Nonetheless, attendant reforms and potentially destabilizing transitions will create new opportunities for jihadists to exploit.

Al-Qa?ida, now merged with Abu Mus?ab al-Zarqawi?s network, is exploiting the situation in Iraq to attract new recruits and donors and to maintain its leadership role.

* The loss of key leaders, particularly Usama Bin Ladin, Ayman al-Zawahiri, and al-Zarqawi, in rapid succession, probably would cause the group to fracture into smaller groups. Although like-minded individuals would endeavor to carry on the mission, the loss of these key leaders would exacerbate strains and disagreements. We assess that the resulting splinter groups would, at least for a time, pose a less serious threat to US interests than does al-Qa'ida.

* Should al-Zarqawi continue to evade capture and scale back attacks against Muslims, we assess he could broaden his popular appeal and present a global threat.

* The increased role of Iraqis in managing the operations of al-Qa'ida in Iraq might lead veteran foreign jihadists to focus their efforts on external operations.

Other affiliated Sunni extremist organizations, such as Jemaah Islamiya, Ansar al-Sunnah, and several North African groups, unless countered, are likely to expand their reach and become more capable of multiple and/or mass-casualty attacks outside their traditional areas of operation.

* We assess that such groups pose less of a danger to the Homeland than does al-Qa'ida but will pose varying degrees of threat to our allies and to US interests abroad. The focus of their attacks is likely to ebb and flow between local regime targets and regional or global ones.

We judge that most jihadist groups - both well-known and newly formed - will use improvised explosive devices and suicide attacks focused primarily on soft targets to implement their asymmetric warfare strategy, and that they will attempt to conduct sustained terrorist attacks in urban environments. Fighters with experience in Iraq are a potential source of leadership for jihadists pursuing these tactics.

* CBRN capabilities will continue to be sought by jihadist groups.

While Iran, and to a lesser extent Syria, remain the most active state sponsors of terrorism, many other states will be unable to prevent territory or resources from being exploited by terrorists.

Anti-US and anti-globalization sentiment is on the rise and fueling other radical ideologies. This could prompt some leftist, nationalist, or separatist groups to adopt terrorist methods to attack US interests. The radicalization process is occurring more quickly, more widely, and more anonymously in the Internet age, raising the likelihood of surprise attacks by unknown groups whose members and supporters may be difficult to pinpoint.

 We judge that groups of all stripes will increasingly use the Internet to communicate, propagandize, recruit, train, and obtain logistical and financial support.

SOURCE:
http://www.dni.gov

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8. Asset Management Network News

For the first anniversary of the 7 July London bombings, we compiled "Report of the Official Account of the Bombings in Haven't heard of botnets? Not sure if nanotechnology is an idea or a threat? Heard about disaster plans but don't have one? Want to educate your own staff about insider threats? Need a list of companies that provide biometric identification products?  Have you read a news topic where we didn't provide enough background, or missed a major issue on your radar screen? Contact us with questions, or consider our custom research and report services, for internal use or customized information distribution.