1. Africa
2. Americas
3. Asia Pacific
4. Europe
5. Middle East
6. South Asia
7. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare
8. Finance
9. Human Rights
10 Law and Legal Issues
11. Narco-terrorism
12. Transportation
13. Weapons of Mass Destruction
14. Recently Published

FEATURE ARTICLE:
Cyber terrorism in South Asia: is it a real threat?
By Subimal Bhattacharjee, Chairman, Task Force on Cyber Security, ASSOCHAM, India

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK

1. Africa

Foreign aid has arrived in Angola, helping with the transition of both soldiers and civilians to a peaceful society. The government is evaluating options to best leverage diamond and oil assets.

In Burundi, Hutu rebels affiliated with the Forces for the Defense of Democracy (FDD) have released Bishop Nduhirubusa and his driver. They had been ambushed (and the two security men with them killed) last week. Such events have frequent during the civil war.

In the Democratic Republic of Congo more than 200 people have been killed in a number of violent assaults. The victims include civilians, army and police officers. The Rally for Congolese Democracy (RCD) carried out a number of killings, including summary executions and random shootings, but the worst incident was a massacre in which some 150 people were decapitated, disemboweled, and thrown into the nearby river.

Dozens of peasant rights demonstrators were killed in Awasa, southern Ethiopia. A curfew has been imposed.

Elections are being held in Lesotho. They have been complicated by the new use of a German-style voting system a first in Africa.

The Liberian rebel forces Liberians United for Reconciliation and Democracy (LURD) have kidnapped a priest and the 60 blind people he was caring for.

The conflict in Madagascar between the new president Marc Ravalomanana and his predecessor, who refuses to concede the office, Didier Ratsiraka, continues. Preparations to free the capital from the blockade imposed by Ratsiraka have begun.

Malis Constitutional Court has now formally declared Amadou Toumani Toure the new president.

The Nigerian government is under increasing pressure, primarily from human rights groups, to disband the state-sponsored vigilantes (the Bakassi Boys) who have carried out arbitrary arrests, torture, and killings in eastern Nigeria. Separately, the Nigerian Human Rights Commission has delivered a lengthy report of the results of its investigations into political abuses since the 1966 military coup.

In Sierra Leone, President Ahmed Tejan Kabbah was resoundingly re-elected, success due to his popular peace platform. The government is trying to find how best to re-establish its potentially lucrative diamond mining industry.

Somalias rampant kidnapping industry hit a snag this week when the United Nations refused to pay ransom for one of their employees and instead would suspend all aid programs. The victim was freed shortly after. In another event that reflects the lack of a central government, the interior minister was attacked in his home by hundreds of opposition gunmen.

South Africa celebrated the 90th anniversary of the African National Congress (ANC).

Sudan is now moving directly against the Lords Resistance Army (LRA). They had previously backed the LRA, then recently allowed the Ugandan government to conduct operations against them, and now are going to address LRA atrocities directly, in addition to the Ugandan activities. The United States has said it will provide support for these efforts.

2. Americas

Following a violent run-up to the Colombian elections, Alvaro Uribe has been overwhelmingly elected President, on a platform promising escalated military action against the rebels.

Cuba responded angrily to US President Bushs statement that trade sanctions on Cuba would continue. Former president Jimmy Carter, who recently visited Cuba, has challenged Bushs position.

In Peru, 17 commandos have been charged with three murders committed after the freeing the hostages taken by members of the Tupac Amaru Revolutionary Movement at the Japanese embassy in 1997.

The top domestic stories in the US this week were around the lack of warnings prior to the September 11 attacks and the surfeit of warnings in the last week. Threats of suicide bombers, weapons of mass destruction, attacks on transportation systems and nuclear plants, and destruction of New York landmarks including the statue of Liberty and Brooklyn Bridge were not sufficient to drown out the growing chorus of voices asking for an independent investigation into the unfolding facts surrounding knowledge of al Qaedas intentions and warning signs of the September attacks.

Internationally, President Bush embarked on a European tour whose highlight was the signing of a new arms reduction treaty with Russia. Widespread protests against US policy have followed Bush throughout his tour.

The 2001 Patterns of Global Terrorism just published by the US State Department reviews international terrorist activities, illustrating the record high number of victims, mostly from the World Trade Center collapse. They continue to list the same seven state sponsors of terrorism: Cuba, Iran, Iraq, Libya, North Korea, Syria, and Sudan.

Venezuelan street protests continue. Meanwhile, the short-lived president during last months brief coup, Pedro Carmona, has slipped away from his house arrest and asked Colombia for political asylum.

3. Asia Pacific

In Cambodia, former Khmer Rouge commander Sam Bith has been arrested and charged with kidnapping, conspiracy to murder, robbery and terrorism.

East Timor held its independence party with the start of 20 May with the hand-over of authority to the newly elected government and the withdrawal of the United Nations administrator. The UN Security Council approved East Timors membership.

In Japan, the trial of Shoko Asahara, leader of Aum Shrinrikyo, has begun to hear arguments for the defense. Asahara is accused of leading the 1995 Sarin gas attack in the Tokyo subways.

The government of Kyrgyzstan has resigned after being blamed for the March deaths of five demonstrators at the hands of the police. President Askar Akayev has met with the opposition and invited them to join government.

The North Korean refugees at the center of a disagreement between China and Japan are now in South Korea, where they will likely be granted asylum. Additional asylum seekers continue to try their chances.

Noor Mohammad Umog has been arrested in the Philippines. Umog is with Abu Sayyaf and is being charged with murder, for the three bombing attacks in General Santos last month.

The Vietnamese elections have resulted in victory for the ruling Communist Party, winning 90% of the seats. Several independents were also elected.

4. Europe

Across Europe, investigations into possible al Qaeda connections continue, often focusing on financial links (as in Spain), connections with other militant groups (like the Chechen rebels in Georgia), and individuals or cells that operate within individual countries.

Arrangements for exile of the final 12 Palestinian militants who had participated in the siege of Bethlehems Church of the Nativity have been completed. Three each go to Italy and Spain, two each to Ireland and Greece, one each to Belgium and Portugal, and one temporarily stays in Cyprus. They will be treated as refugees but without full freedom of movement.

Germans greeted US President Bush with broad public protests against American policies towards the Middle East, Iraq, trade and the environment. After a friendlier visit to Russia, Bush is expected to receive similar protests in his forthcoming visits to France and Italy.

Irish Prime Minister Bertie Aherns Fianna Fail party won a large election victory that also saw gains for Sinn Fein and the Greens. In the final count, Fianna Fail was short of an outright majority.

Russian President Putin and US President Bush signed a nuclear arms reduction agreement to public acclaim. However, disagreements over policy towards Iran and the lack of progress regarding investment in Russia still threaten the relationship.

Another car bomb in Madrid, Spain has been blamed on the Basque separatist group, ETA.

A political crisis in Turkey looms with the illness of Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit. With no clear successor, it is feared that his retirement could lead to a resurgence of Islamists rather than continued movements to a secular state and membership of the European Union.

The UK faces its own political crisis in the form of asylum and immigration problems brought on by the issues surrounding the Sangatte refugee camp in France near the channel tunnel.

The Northern Ireland Secretary, John Reid, says that the IRA and UVF ceasefires still hold, but sporadic violence, including petrol bombs and explosive attacks on homes continue. Gerry Adams, president of Sinn Fein, has called for a full review of progress on the Good Friday agreement, suggesting that there has been a lack of progress on major issues, including security. Continued violence in north Belfast lend credence to some of these issues, but police have cracked down on organized crime, including recent discovery of another illegal fuel laundering facility. Sean OReilly of Belfast has been arrested and charged with possession of explosions related to a 500-pound bomb discovered in a car in March 2000.

Help in the surrender of war crime suspects from the former Yugoslavia has been deemed sufficient cooperation to gain renewed US aid. Human rights groups dispute this evaluation. In UN administered Kosovo, a resolution adopted by the local assembly regarding the border agreement with Yugoslavia and Macedonia was declared null and void by the UN mission. Serbia is in turmoil as the governing coalition becomes unraveled amid a power struggle between President Kostunica and Prime Minister Djindjic.

5. Middle East

In Algeria another ambush has killed 10 government troops. It may be the work of the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC). Meanwhile, President Bouteflika pardoned more than 5,000 political prisoners in honor of Mohammeds birthday.

In the occupied Gaza Strip, Hamas and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) continue to affirm their right to self-defense against the Israeli occupation forces, using any means at their disposal. The long-awaited Israeli incursion against the established militants has still not taken place.

Iran, described in the US State Departments Patterns of Terrorism report as the most active state sponsor of terrorism in 2001 has angrily denied the charges as biased, without basis, and undocumented. Iran, working with Russia to install a nuclear power plant, also denies allegations by the US that this is a step in their efforts to develop weapons of mass destruction, not a domestic energy generation source.

Iraq and the United Nations will resume talks about return of weapons inspectors in July. The US still expresses its support and plans for the removal of President Saddam Hussein, but immediate plans for attack have apparently been put on hold.

Israel continues to suffer from suicide bombers and continues to retaliate with brief violent reprisals. With recent military actions not successful in increasing security, the political debate revolves around increasing military action or taking an alternate course. These debates have led to serious problems within the ruling coalition, whose cabinet needs to be rebuilt after several ministers were dismissed and where an early election is a possibility.

In Lebanon, Muhammad Jihad Jibril, a prominent Palestinian militant, was assassinated with a car bomb. His father, Ahmad Jibril , leader of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine General Command (PFLP-GC) blames Israel, but it is also possible that it came from a different Palestinian faction. Shortly after this murder, another body was discovered. Ramzi Irani, a member of the old anti-Syrian Phalange militia, was kidnapped two weeks ago and murdered shortly thereafter.

A referendum in Tunisia will determine whether to cancel term limits, extend judicial immunity and extend the age limit, allowing President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali to continue to serve for potentially another 15 years.

The occupied West Bank continues to experience reprisal raids by Israeli troops. Arrangements for exile of the final 12 Palestinian militants who had participated in the siege of Bethlehems Church of the Nativity have been completed. Three each go to Italy and Spain, two each to Ireland and Greece, one each to Belgium and Portugal, and one temporarily stays in Cyprus. They will be treated as refugees but without full freedom of movement.

Under international and domestic pressure for reforms, Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat has promised elections by early next year. He continues to insist that the occupying forces must leave in order to have free elections

6. South Asia

Military actions, including incidents with local warlords and possible al Qaeda or Taliban forces in Afghanistan continue, as does the rising civilian toll. The United Nations Security Council has extended the International Security Assistance Force mandate by six months.

India continues to increase the armed forces (and mine-laying operations) at the border with Pakistan. Prime Minister Vajpayee has spoken of decisive military operations to defeat Islamic militants in Kashmir and continues to pressure Pakistan to eliminate the militants before India will engage in diplomatic measures. Shelling across the border continues.

The international community has united in trying to keep the two nuclear nations from another war. Their efforts were dealt a blow with the assassination of Abdul Ghani Lone, a moderate separatist leader.

For details on the conflict over Kashmir, read our earlier feature article, and also refer to the latest BBC news in their Kashmir Flashpoint In Depth feature, available online at
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/in_depth/south_asia/2002/kashmir_flashpoint/

Dissidents within the ruling party of Nepal have disputed government plans to extend the state of emergency. Before the vote, King Gyanendra dissolved parliament and called for fresh elections. The ruling Congress party then suspended Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, but he has supported of his cabinet, and consultations over the crisis are under way. General elections have been called for November.

Pakistan has called for talks with India, but the offer has again been turned down as India insists President Pervez Musharraf must first crackdown on Islamic militants. They have also suggested international monitors to help reduce the tension. At the same time, they have shifted additional troops away from Afghanistan to the border with India and have undertaken two missile tests. While identified as a routine test, it was also perceived as a reminder that Pakistan, much smaller than India, has reserved the right of first strike with its nuclear arsenal.

In Sri Lanka, the Tamil Tiger rebels have agreed to let the families of seven prisoners of war visit them. Not all the terms of the ceasefire agreement have yet been implemented, but it is unlikely to delay peace talks scheduled for June.

7. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare

The US State Department has launched an information sharing trial project in India and Mexico to share cross-agency security information.

The US Social Security Administration reports that approximately 100,000 Social Security numbers had been issued to immigrants using false identification.

Wireless security is under close scrutiny after the discovery of security lapses at the US Department of Defense and elsewhere.

8. Finance

Stock fraud investigations in the US following the September 11 attacks and accusations of short-selling based on knowledge of the attacks have led to several arrests. Most of the arrests are not related to the attacks, but have led to moves towards additional regulatory and security measures.

Two brothers who managed a cigarette smuggling ring in North Carolina, US, have been accused of diverting the funds to finance Hizbollah, the militant Islamic group in Lebanon.

The Israeli family of Techiya Blumberg who was killed in a West Bank attack last year, has sued the European Union for funding attacks on Jewish civilians. The EU denies this link.

In Northern Ireland, the Organized Crime Task Force has been launched to clamp down on organized crime and help recover the assets resulting from criminal activities. Estimates are that about half the organized crime is connected to paramilitary organizations.

9. Human Rights

Issues of asylum, human trafficking, immigration and refugees have converged in the case of the Sangate refugee center near Calais, France and its role in the entry of illegal refugees into the UK. Issues of how to manage the camp, its security issues, and general immigration and asylum policies are under hot debate. (Next weeks feature article will provide details on these issues.)

The Nigerian Human Rights Commission has delivered a 7-volume report of the results of its investigations into political abuses since the 1966 military coup. The investigation was modeled on the South African truth and reconciliation commission. An eighth volume containing recommendations is forthcoming.

10. Law and Legal Issues

Appealing an earlier ruling, the US Justice Department has defended its refusal to identify the foreign nationals detained after September 11. So far, every court judgement has been against the government and ruled in favor of disclosing the names.

The Saville (Bloody Sunday) inquiry is considering arrangements to protect the identity of one of the witnesses, an MI5 agent who is expected to testify that Martin McGuinness (the Education Minister) fired the first shot.

In Japan, the trial of Shoko Asahara, leader of Aum Shrinrikyo, has begun to hear arguments for the defense. Asahara is accused of leading the 1995 Sarin gas attack in the Tokyo subways.

Sam Bith, the former Khmer Rouge commander Sam Bith has been arrested and charged in Cambodia with kidnapping, conspiracy to murder, robbery and terrorism.

Bobby Frank Cherry has been convicted for his role in the 1963 church bombing in Birmingham, Alabama that killed four black girls.

Joyce Godbout of Massachusetts has pleaded guilty for sending hoax anthrax letters at the height of the anthrax scare last fall.

Mohamad and Chawki Hammoud, brothers who managed a cigarette smuggling ring in North Carolina, US, have been accused of diverting the funds to finance Hizbollah, the militant Islamic group in Lebanon.

Amr Ibrahim ("Anthony", "Tony") Elgindy has appeared in federal court under charges of bribing and FBI agent and of prior knowledge of the September 11 attacks. Although Mr. Elgindy and his associates, Derrick Cleveland and Troy Peters, (as well as Jeffrey Royer and Lynn Wingate of the FBI), were charged as a result of investigations in short-selling in advance of the attacks, there is no credible evidence that he was involved.

Sean OReilly of Belfast has been arrested and charged with possession of explosions related to a 500-pound bomb discovered in a car in March 2000.

Additional documents filed in the court case against Richard Colvin Reid claim that forensic evidence analyzed from the explosive device carried in his shoes indicates that he did not act alone.

Noor Mohammad Umog has been arrested in the Philippines. Umog is with Abu Sayyaf and is charged with murder, for the three bomb attacks in General Santos last month.

11. Narco-terrorism

No newsletter report this week.

12. Transportation

Transportation systems have been the focus of several security warnings from various US authorities in the past week.

The case of the alleged "20th hijacker", Zacarias Moussaoui, has been used to illustrate the security risks in the lack of intelligence sharing among federal agencies, including the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Federal Aviation Agency. Serious accusations from an FBI agent have indicated that information resulting from his Moussaouis arrest should have helped alert the FAA and other agencies to possible flight school threats prior to the September 11 attacks.

The US Undersecretary of Transportation for Security has ruled against pilots carrying guns on flights. He has not yet ruled on whether non-lethal weapons such as stun guns would be allowed in the cockpit.

13. Weapons of Mass Destruction

Among the plethora of security warnings issued in the US last week, US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has stated that the use of weapons of mass destruction is inevitable

In the face of renewed warning of possible attacks through weapons of mass destruction, the continued failure of the US Federal Bureau of Investigation to uncover the source of the anthrax-laden letters from last year has continued to generate criticism. The Justice Department is now preparing lie detector tests of federal employees at Fort Detrick and Dugway, where anthrax is stored.

Meanwhile, the policy of anthrax vaccination for all troops has been changed to only vaccinate those at high risk.

Iran, working with Russia to install a nuclear power plant, denies allegations by the US that this is a step in their efforts to develop weapons of mass destruction, not a domestic energy generation source.

Presidents Putin of Russia and Bush of the US have signed a nuclear arms reduction treaty which potentially will reduce the nuclear arsenals by two-thirds over the next ten years.

In the escalating conflict between India and Pakistan over Jammu Kashmir, the risk of nuclear war is real. (See our earlier article on Kashmir for details.)

And for further coverage of nuclear war scenarios, read the article by Bill Keller, "Nuclear Nightmares: Experts on terrorism and proliferation agree on one thing: Sooner or later, an attack will happen here. When and how is what robs them of sleep." Published in the New York Times Magazine, May 26, 2002.

14. Recently Published

Iceland is featured in a Financial Times Survey published on May 22.

Ganguly, Sumit. Conflict Unending: India-Pakistan Tensions Since 1947. Columbia University Press.

Hutton, Bill. The World Were In. Little Brown.

Bill Keller, "Nuclear Nightmares: Experts on terrorism and proliferation agree on one thing: Sooner or later, an attack will happen here. When and how is what robs them of sleep." Published in the New York Times Magazine, May 26, 2002.

Kepel, Gilles. The Trail of Political Islam. Harvard University Press.

Preston, Brian. Pot Planet: Adventures in Global Marijuana Culture. Grove.

Stiglitz, Joseph. Globalization and Its Discontents. Norton

Tellis, Ashley J. Indias Emerging Nuclear Posture: Between Recessed Deterrent and Ready Arsenal. RAND.

FEATURE ARTICLE:

Cyber terrorism in South Asia: is it a real threat?
By Subimal Bhattacharjee

The explosion of Information Communication Technology (ICT) across the South Asian region is fraught with many serious concerns. While there has been genuine progress in terms of communications and use of computers among the constituent nations and the people, there has also been the growing danger of vituperative attacks and disruptions to the networks and individuals. The possibilities of the Internet becoming another medium enabling criminal activity, propaganda dissemination among conflicting groups, and the use of technology to further terrorism and political violence have arisen. Already there are concerns voiced at the growing incidence of these new crimes popularly known as cybercrimes or, more seriously, as cyberterrorism.

The incidence of cybercrimes in this region has increased manifold. Every day attacks and attempted attacks are detected in public and private networks. This causes alarm among business houses and governments. While there is no organized survey carried out to ascertain the cybercrime scenario in South Asia as a whole, there are figures available from the respective countries and they speak a serious story. Hacking, planting viruses and worms, denial of service attacks and spoofing are serious tools of the new generation criminals. Can these new tools create fear and lead to physical destruction? Such analysis will lead us to understand whether cyberterrorism is really a threat in the region.

South Asia is riddled with bickering relations between nations and among disparate groups within individual countries. Relations between two strong neighbors, India and Pakistan, are in a dangerous state, with war over the disputed regions of Jammu Kashmir a real possibility.

Afghanistan has been at war and a base for terrorism for years. Sri Lanka, on the verge of attaining peace, has seen decades of ethnic violence and serious terrorist attacks. Tibet and other areas bordering China experience frequent unrest. Bangladesh continually experiences low levels of political violence. Burma has frequent civilian-military tussles and ethnic border conflicts. Nepal is in a state of emergency following attacks by Maoist rebels. At relative peace is Bhutan, but terrorists from northeastern India are taking refuge there. Thus the region is quite unstable and often regarded as a flashpoint in the world.

Terrorist and other militant and extremist attacks account for much of the violence in the region. The targets are both civilian and military. Most of these conflicts are combative in nature, using guns and bombs. The use of modern weapons and shift to technology has been a recent phenomenon in some of these attacks.

There are two aspects of cyberspace and terrorism. One is the use of ICT by terrorist organizations to correspond among themselves, exchange funds and keep track of recent trends. A reference to this point is the use of steganography by Al-Qaeda extremists to communicate strategic information to the cadres. The other aspect is the attack on information systems or their supporting infrastructure by terrorists, related groups, or even frivolous players. All such cases may not inflict bloodshed or incite fear, but many result in heavy destruction and damage.

Such attacks can be clubbed as cyberterrorism because today many critical functions rely heavily on computers and networks. Most of these attacks are transnational and often hostilities in the real world find their expression in such attacks. Thus serious damages are caused and directly or indirectly affect many lives. Many experts disagree on this issue and opine that terrorism is defined to be the phenomena which causes extreme fear rather than great destruction and losses and cyber-attacks create notional fear but not serious fear. The attacks by viruses like Melissa (1999), I Love You (2000) and Nimda (2001) speak otherwise. While businesses have lost millions of dollars due to the attacks, consumers have started fearing to transact online.

Cyberterrorism is not a virtual entity, yet to happen, but a current threat whose force we need to be prepared to tackle. The recent survey released by the CSI and FBI mentions clearly the growing incidence of cyberattacks. Almost 90% of the Industry, Government and Institutions surveyed mentioned that they suffered attacks on their information systems in the past 12 months. National networks are being attacked regularly. Most of the critical infrastructures in nations across the world could be the vulnerable targets of such attacks and terrorist could use this to show their prowess. The September 11 manifestations through cyberattacks could be still high on the agenda of the surviving cadres and could strike as a fall-out of the War against Terrorism.

Cyberterrorist attacks can be deadly. For example, they could include: