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This week the Feature Article wraps up the 3-part series on viruses with a look at SARS and public health. If you missed last week on AIDS and the military, do check it out. https://terrorismcentral.com/Newsletters/2003/112303.html#FeatureArticle Meanwhile, News Highlights cover the bloodiest month yet in Iraq, election results from Northern Ireland, and other events from around the world last week.

CONTENTS:

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK:

1. World
2. Africa
3. Americas
4. Asia Pacific
5. Europe
6. Middle East
7. South Asia
8. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare
9. Finance
10 Human Rights
11. Law and Legal Issues
12. Transportation
13. Weapons of Mass Destruction
14. Recently Published

FEATURE ARTICLE:
Viruses part III: SARS and Public Health Implications of Infectious Diseases

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK

1. World

HIV/AIDS deaths have reached the highest number of new infections and a record number of deaths. There were five million new infections and three million people died this year alone. http://www.unaids.org

Hunger is rising again after a brief decline. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimated 842 million undernourished people. They find a correlation with frequent food emergencies, high HIV/AIDS rates, and droughts or civil conflict. http://www.fao.org/english/newsroom/news/2003/24779-en.html

In their largest engagement since April, US forces have killed 46 Iraqi militants and captured eight in response to a series of ambushes. This marks the end to the bloodiest month yet in Iraq, in which more than a hundred US-led-coalition troops were killed. Over a weekend of ambushes, seven Spanish agents, two Japanese diplomats and their driver, one Colombian contractor, and two South Korean electricians have been killed, expanding the number of countries that have suffered casualties in this war. A new US plan to speed up the handover of power to Iraqis has run into more opposition. Ayatollah Ali Sistani, the senior Shia cleric, states that the plan must give a greater role to Iraqis (including national elections) and acknowledge the role of Islam in Iraqi society.

North Korea has expressed its anger over suspension of the Kedo consortium's work on power projects. They say the US is responsible for the withdrawal, has violated the 1994 agreement, and must give compensation.

2. Africa

An unidentified, armed group in Algeria ambushed and killed Saudi poet Talal al-Rasheed.

As Angola rebuilds from its 27-year war and millions of displaced people return, the issue of land rights has come to the forefront. For background on this issue, see this special report: http://www.irinnews.org/report.asp?ReportID=38132

Angola's struggle between government troops and Cabinda separatists took a new turn as bordering Democratic Republic of Congo and Congo-Brazzaville offered their support to the government. Previously these governments had backed the separatists.

Burundi's President Domitien Ndayizeye has formed a new government that includes members from the rebel Forces for the Defense of Democracy (FDD). The smaller rebel group, the Forces for National Liberation (FNL) has refused to negotiate and continues their attacks against the government.

Local communities in Chad, including refugee camps for 65,000 Sudanese, have come under attack at the eastern border by Sudanese Arab militiamen. They have launched raids over the border, stealing cattle and burning down villages. Amnesty International reports that the Sudanese government bears much responsibility for the attacks. http://web.amnesty.org/library/Index/ENGAFR541012003

Comoros government troops opened fire on a group of demonstrators, injuring at least 15. Parliamentary elections have been postponed indefinitely pending resolution of disputed tax revenues.

Ivory Coast's de facto partition continues to threaten stability, while both pro-government and rebel militias continue to attack civilians with impunity. West African leaders have asked for a full UN peacekeeping mission, which is being evaluated, but at this time 4,000 French and 1,500 West African troops are monitoring the shaky ceasefire.

Liberia's warring factions walked out of disarmament talks. Two rebel groups (LURD and MODEL) refuse to disarm unless they are given more government jobs.

In Nigeria, the last of the 18 ChevronTexaco workers who were held hostage by Ijaw militants have been released.

In Somalia, fighting broke out when a transitional government militia attempted to impose taxes on bananas ready for export. Local businesses sent in their own militia to take control of the port. At least eight people were killed.

Ugandan rebels of the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) killed some 18 people in a number of attacks.

Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe will not be invited to the upcoming Commonwealth heads of government meeting, being held next month in Nigeria. Mugabe has threatened to leave the Commonwealth and blames the "white section" for opposing him because of his land-seizure policies.

3. Americas

A day after Chilean newspaper La Nacion published details of some 400 political prisoners whose bodies were secretly dropped from helicopters into the sea during the Pinochet dictatorship, Augusto Pinochet gave an interview to a US television station, calling himself a "patriotic angel" with nothing to apologize for.

800 Colombian paramilitaries of the United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC) have disarmed. It is the first step in a peace process that expects all 13,000 AUC members to disarm by the end of 2005. Rebels of the National Liberation Army (ELN) freed two of the seven foreign hostages they kidnapped in September.

The USS Cole has pulled out for its first overseas deployment since the October 2000 bombing in Yemen.

Venezuela closed parts of the border with Colombia to stop people entering to sign the petition. Opponents to President Hugo Chavez have four days to gather 2.4 million signatures that would force a vote.

4. Asia Pacific

Taiwan's parliament has approved a law to give the President the power to call a national referendum on independence. China expressed grave concerns at the bill and reiterated threats to act if there is any move towards formal independence.

Indonesia is strengthening security measures following a series of warnings that western targets, particularly churches, could be subject to bomb attacks timed for the Christmas holiday.

Malaysia has freed fifteen people linked to the Brotherhood of al-Ma'unah Inner Power, a Muslim paramilitary organization with mystical beliefs. They had been held for over three years under anti-terrorism legislation without charge or trial. Four students detained after alleged militant training in Pakistan were also freed, but nine others are still in detention.

5. Europe

France, Germany and Britain have reached an informal agreement on a joint defense arrangement for Europe that could operate separately from NATO. The EU's first peacekeeping operation was launched in Macedonia this spring.

In Bosnia, NATO forces are being reduced in preparation for the EU to take over the mission by the end of next year.

The hardline nationalist Croatian Democratic union has won the largest number of seats in recent parliamentary elections.

The UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus mandate has been extended for another six months. The Security Council also urged remaining restrictions on the Turkish side be rescinded.

Georgia's Supreme Court annulled the November 2 elections. Following Shevardnadze's resignation, the Acting President Nino Burjanadze has called for new elections within 45 days, in accordance with the constitution. The opposition has united behind a single candidate, the leader of the popular revolt, Mikhail Saakashvili, who promises to end corruption.

Chechen envoy Akhmed Zakayev, wanted in Russia as a rebel who kidnapped, killed, and fought against Russia, has been granted asylum in the UK.

Turkey has charged nine people in connection with the suicide bombings against the British Consulate and HSBC bank last week. There have been warnings of more attacks in the near future.

Elections in Northern Ireland have made the hardline Democratic Unionist Party (that opposes the Good Friday Agreement and refuses to share power with Sinn Fein) the largest party. Combined with Sinn Fein's gains, the results could lead to greater polarization and make it difficult to restore the devolved assembly that has been suspended for more than a year.

6. Middle East

In the occupied Gaza Strip, three Palestinians believed to have been preparing an ambush against settlers were shot dead by the Israeli army. A Palestinian security officer was shot dead as Israeli troops dispersed a crowd.

Iran's nuclear program was strongly condemned while its recent cooperation was praised and encouraged. A particularly tough inspection regime will be used and Iran is on notice that future failures would face immediate response. This combination of pressure and incentives was a compromise between the US and Europe over how to deal with Iran.
http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/Focus/IaeaIran/

Israel is under increased pressure to halt further settlements and construction of the barrier coming up in the West Bank. The US Bush administration has rescinded $289.5 million in loan guarantees (out of $3 billion total). International aid groups have warned that recent security measures make it impossible to deliver aid and they may stop activities in the Gaza Strip and West Bank. Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei said that without a halt to construction there would be no point in beginning talks with Israel. The UN declared that Israel was not in compliance with a demand to take down the barrier wall and stop construction. Secretary General Kofi Annan called barrier construction "a deeply counterproductive act". http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=9005&Cr=Palestin&Cr1=

In Lebanon, the spiritual leader of the Druze community, Sheikh Abu Hassan Aref Halawi, has died at the age of 103. http://www.dailystar.com.lb/28_11_03/art1.asp

Saudi authorities foiled a car bomb attack, killing two suspected militants.

7. South Asia

In Afghanistan, Turkish engineer Hasan Onal who was kidnapped by the Taliban last month has been released. There have been reports that Mullah Mohammed Omar, the former Taliban leader, has been cited in border areas. Shortages of international aid funds and peacekeeping forces continue to threaten security in the country.

India's Assam state saw more violent clashes between Assamese and Bihari, despite the presence of troops sent to control the situation. More than 50 people have died in the past two weeks. Some have been = victims of separatist rebels in the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) who launch attacks from across the border. More than 17,000 people, mostly migrant workers from Bihar, have fled their homes and are being housed in makeshift refugee camps.

In Gujarat state, a court has found 12 people guilty of unlawful assembly and violence in connection with the murder of 14 Muslims in religious riots last year. More than a thousand people were killed in those riots.

India and Pakistan have agreed a ceasefire along the Line of Control in Kashmir. Despite the truce, attacks continued, killing twelve.

Nepali Maoist rebel leader Prachanda and his ten top associates have been issued international arrest warrants by Interpol. Clashes between the government and rebels killed six rebels and two policemen.

The conflict between the Sri Lankan President and Prime Minister has not been resolved, stalling the peace process. Tamil Tiger rebel leader Velupillai Prabhakaran has warned they will revive separatist demands if the peace process did not move forward.

8. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare

The Economist reviews "Fighting the worms of mass destruction" in a special report on internet security published November 29. http://www.economist.com/science/displayStory.cfm?story_id=2246018 And a summary of Sobig and Blaster appears in The Indian Express, "No escape from fear in cyberspace" http://www.indianexpress.com/full_story.php?content_id=36132

"Digital Investigation: The International Journal of Digital Forensics and Incident Response" is a new publication that will be published by Elsevier beginning in March 2004. Contributions are being solicited now. For information, editorial guidelines or a sample copy go to http://www.compseconline.com/digitalinvestigation

9. Finance

International Monetary Fund's (IMF) Executive Board has reviewed the Offshore Financial Center (OFC) assessment program, agreeing on regular monitoring, improved transparency, and enhanced technical assistance. http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pn/2003/pn03138.htm

The UN Security Council established a new committee to track financial assets removed from Iraq by associates of the former Saddam Hussein regime. http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=8983&Cr=iraq&Cr1=

The US Financial Crimes Enforcement Network issued a final rule that adds futures commission merchants and introducing brokers in commodities to the Bank Secrecy Act definition of a financial institution and so requires them to support suspicious transactions.
http://www.fincen.gov/fcmfinalrule.pdf

The US Treasury Department also announced a proposed regulation to implement claims procedures under the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act of 2002. http://www.treas.gov/trip/

10. Human Rights

PricewaterhouseCoopers has given up its interest in a Burmese consulting group following pressure from human rights organizations.

UNHCR criticized the draft EU asylum legislation, intended to harmonize treatment across the EU, as failing to meet international law in eight ways, including safe countries, border procedures, and the right to remain during appeals. http://www.unhcr.org/

Australia and the US announced agreement that Guantanamo detainees facing trials by military commission would be fair. In addition, detainees will be allowed to speak by phone to their families, have access to an Australian attorney, and if convicted would not face the death penalty. Terms of the process are likely to be followed for British detainees. Amnesty International points out that "Human rights are not negotiable" http://web.amnesty.org/library/index/engamr511412003

11. Law and Legal Issues

Shadi Abdellah has been sentenced by German court to four years in prison for membership of al Qaeda, falsifying passports, and helping plan terrorist attacks against Jewish targets.

Mahjub Abderrazak ("The Sheikh") was arrested in Germany ion suspicion of recruiting suicide bombers in Iraq.
Sajid Badat has been arrested in Gloucester, England, under the Terrorism Act.

The Bloody Sunday inquiry into the deaths of 13 civilians in Londonderry, Northern Ireland, 1972, has announced they are still taking statements and will not be able to complete hearing evidence by Christmas.

Thomas Butler, charged with 69 counts including smuggling, illegal transport of hazardous materials, tax fraud and embezzlement, in connection with the allegedly theft of 30 vials of plague, has pleaded not guilty in US federal court.

Jack Farr, a US Army intelligence officer, has been charged with transporting classified material and lying to investigators. He is the fourth man accused of security breaches at the US base in Guantanamo Bay.

Katharine Gun, a former translator for the Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ) in the UK has been charged under the Official Secrets Act for leaking a top secret email regarding tapping members of the UN Security Council. She plans to plead not guilty because she was attempting to prevent "an illegal war" in Iraq.

Housni Jamal and a second man were arrested in Italy on suspicion of recruiting suicide bombers for attacks in Iraq.

Mohammad Hamdi al-Ahdal a/k/aAbu Asem al-Macci has been arrested in Yemen in connection with the USS Cole bombing of 2000 and his alleged management of al Qaeda funds internationally.

The trial of Edouard Karemera, Mathieu Ngirumpatse, Joseph Nzirorera, and Andre Rwamakuba, former Rwandan government officials has begun. They face charges of genocide and crimes against humanity.

Radizlav Krstic was convicted of genocide in connection with the Srebrenica massacre of 1995 and sentenced to 46-years by the International War Crimes Tribunal. He has begun an appeal hearing, claiming Srebrenica was not a case of genocide.

Abdelbaset ali Mohmed al-Megrahi, convicted of the 1988 Lockerbie bombing, has been told he must serve at least 27 years of his life sentence in prison, including time already in custody, before applying for parole. This was an increase to the recommended 20-year minimum. Further appeals are planned.

Mohammed Kubwa Seif, Said Saggar Ahmen and Salmin Mohamed Khamisi have been charged with conspiring to blow up the US embassy in Kenya.

Rais Abdallah Shariff and Mohamed Ali Hassan have been released for lack of evidence in connection with the 2002 Kenyan resort bombing.

James Yee, a chaplain at Guantanamo detained under high security for nearly three months on suspicion of espionage, has been released and allowed to resume his duties. He is being investigated for lesser charges of having pornography on his computer and adultery.

12. Transportation

The US Federal Air Marshal Service (FAMS) has been transferred from the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to create a combined federal force within the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). (http://www.dhs.gov/dhspublic/display?content=2388) FHS was also the subject of a General Accounting Office (GAO) report reviewing its expanded mission and workforce, growing from 50 to several thousand air marshals in the space of some eight months. GAO found that security clearances had slowed the pace of new hires and to expand the workforce to meet the deadline, the training curriculum was revised and abbreviated. Management and technology investments to support this rapid growth are underway but not completed, and integration challenges remain.
(http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-04-242)

Charges were filed against 25 defendants at John F Kennedy International Airport in connection with a massive drug smuggling operation that had gone on for more than ten years, bringing in hundreds of pounds of cocaine and marijuana.
http://www.bice.gov/graphics/news/newsrel/articles/snowstorm_narcotics112503.htm

13. Weapons of Mass Destruction

The United Nations has adopted a draft protocol, the "Protocol V on Explosive Remnants of War", an annex to the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons, to ensure unexploded weapons at the end of a conflict are either removed or destroyed. (http://www.gichd.ch/publications/index.htm) 92 countries, including the US (the first time the Bush administration has signed an international arms agreement) have approved the treaty. It will come into effect once 20 nations have ratified it. The annex addresses the problem of cluster bombs, that typically contains some 200 "bomblets" that spread over a wide area and can lie unexploded for many years.

14. Recently Published

Peter Balakian, "The Burning Tigris: The Armenian Genocide and America's Response" Harper Collins

Frederic Brenner, "Diaspora: Homeland in Exile" Harper Collins (illustrated)

Romeo Dallaire , "Shake Hands with the Devil: The Failure of Humanity in Rwanda , Random House. Author interview at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/low/africa/3224176.stm

Harold Evans, "War Stories: Reporting in the Time of Conflict from the Crimea to Iraq" Bunker Hill

Andrew Goliszek, "In the Name of Science: A History of Secret Programs, Medical Research, and Human Experimentation" St. Martin's

Nat Hentoff "The War On the Bill of Rights: And the Gathering Resistance" Seven Stories

Philip B. Heymann, "Terrorism, Freedom, and Security: Winning Without War" MIT Press

Lutz Kleveman, "The New Great Game: Blood and Oil in Central Asia" Atlantic Monthly

Williamson Murray and Robert H Scales Jr, "The Iraq War: A Military History" Harvard University Press

Anthony Read "The Devil's Disciples: The Life and Times of Hitler's Inner Circle" Cape

FEATURE ARTICLE: Viruses part III: SARS and Public Health Implications of Infectious Diseases

In January 2000 the US National Intelligence Estimate included, for the first time, emerging global infectious diseases as a threat to national security, including:
" * Emerging and reemerging infectious diseases, many of which are likely to continue to originate overseas, will continue to kill at least 170,000 Americans annually. Many more could perish in an epidemic of influenza or yet-unknown disease or if there is a substantial decline in the effectiveness of available HIV/AIDS drugs.
" * Infectious diseases are likely to continue to account for more military hospital admissions than battlefield injuries. US military personnel deployed at NATO and US bases overseas, will be at low-to-moderate risk. At highest risk will be US military forces deployed in support of humanitarian and peacekeeping operations in developing countries.
* The infectious disease burden will weaken the military capabilities of some countries--as well as international peacekeeping efforts--as their armies and recruitment pools experience HIV infection rates ranging from 10 to 60 percent. The cost will be highest among officers and the more modernized militaries in Sub-Saharan Africa and increasingly among FSU states and possibly some rogue states.
" * Infectious diseases are likely to slow socioeconomic development in the hardest-hit developing and former communist countries and regions. This will challenge democratic development and transitions and possibly contribute to humanitarian emergencies and civil conflicts.
" * Infectious disease-related embargoes and restrictions on travel and immigration will cause frictions among and between developed and developing countries.
" * The probability of a bioterrorist attack against US civilian and military personnel overseas or in the United States also is likely to grow as more states and groups develop a biological warfare capability. Although there is no evidence that the recent West Nile virus outbreak in New York City was caused by foreign state or nonstate actors, the scare and several earlier instances of suspected bioterrorism showed the confusion and fear they can sow regardless of whether or not they are validated".

The emergence of Sudden Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) dramatically illustrated the accuracy of these predictions. For the first time, a new infectious disease spread around the world and had an immediate impact of global economies. This caught the world's attention.

SARS is a respiratory illness caused by the SARS-associated corona virus (SARS-CoV). It begins with a high fever and other symptoms that are also associated with colds and flu, but, unlike these, most SARS infections lead to atypical pneumonia. SARS is transmitted through the air, primarily through close contact with an infected person. The initial outbreak began in China. Local transmission occurred in Canada, China (as well as Hong Kong and Taiwan), Mongolia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Vietnam. In just a few months, travel spread infections to Australia, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Kuwait, Malaysia, New Zealand, Romania, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, the UK, and the US.

Overall, the World Health organization monitored 29 countries and administrative regions. During the outbreak, 8,098 people were infected and 774 died. The overall fatality rate of 10 percent compares to a two-percent death rate in the influenza epidemic of 1918 that killed 20 million. In the elderly, the SARS fatality rate is over 50 percent.

Now, one year after the SARS outbreak began, where do we stand?

The genetic structure of SARS is being unraveled, leading to new findings that can help inform treatment and prevention. Because of the virus' ability to interact with other corona viruses (responsible for the common cold, among other things) there is still no reliable laboratory test for the virus. However, experimental vaccine trials on humans will begin soon, following successful animal tests in China. This is unusually fast and if the next steps proceed as smoothly, a vaccine could be ready in as little as two years.

On the public health front, countries conducted local investigations into their handling of SARS and consistently found systemic problems. Officials in Hong Kong published one of the most detailed reports. It illustrates how ill prepared the public health system was for the rapid emergence of a new disease, exacerbated by having no information from the neighboring province of Guangdong, where the outbreak started. Their recommendations include re-organizing the healthcare system to support communicable disease control; implementing surveillance, analysis, investigation, capacity, planning and training within the health service; collaborating and coordinating with neighboring countries and the international community; establishing public/private partnerships to manage epidemics, including surge capacity and personnel; and engaging the community.

Surveillance and information sharing that begins at the local level is critical in identifying and mitigating disease outbreaks. For example, "Whether a disease outbreak occurs naturally or due to the intentional release of a harmful biological agent by a terrorist, much of the initial response would occur at the local level, particularly at hospitals and their emergency departments". China has learned this lesson well, after seeing how damaging withholding such information proved. The World Health Organization has proven an effective coordination body, through its Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network.

The ability to acquire, share, analyze and distribute information is only as strong as its weakest link. In this case, "Most hospitals reported training their staff on biological agents and planning coordination efforts with public health entities; however, preparedness limitations may impact hospitals' ability to conduct disease surveillance. In addition, hospitals still lack the capacity to respond to large-scale infectious disease outbreaks. Also, most emergency departments across the country have experienced some degree of overcrowding, which could be exacerbated during a disease outbreak or bioterrorist event if persons with symptoms go to emergency departments for treatment".

The last two quotations were from a US General Accounting Office report (GAO-03-1176T). Another report reinforced these findings, including pointing out that implementing infectious disease control measures "may prove difficult due to limitations in both hospital and workforce capacity that could result in overcrowding, as well as potential shortages in health care workers and medical equipment -- particularly respirators". (GAO-03-1058T)

Such shortfalls seen in the world's richest countries are magnified among the poor, where new infectious diseases are likely to spread most quickly and where effective treatment is least available. Globalization of the economy has contributed to the rapid spread of global infections. In turn, a global response to these massive threats is urgently needed. This must be a long-term, sustained effort that responds to the overall threat, not just to single events. To achieve this requires major changes in public policy -- preferably while there is time to do so.

Further Reading: