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AUTHOR:
TerrorismCentral Editorial Staff

TITLE:
TerrorismCentral Newsletter - January 16, 2005

SOURCE:
TerrorismCentral, January 16, 2005

TEXT:

From Mahmoud Abbas' election as the new Palestinian President to publication of Human Rights Watch annual report, News Highlights features key events from the past week around the world. In the Feature Article, we look at "Mapping the Global Future: the NIC 2020 Project Report".


CONTENTS:

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK:

1. World
2. Africa
3. Americas
4. Asia Pacific
5. Europe
6. Middle East
7. South Asia
8. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare
9. Finance
10 Human Rights
11. Law and Legal Issues
12. Transportation
13. Weapons of Mass Destruction
14. Recently Published

FEATURE ARTICLE:
Mapping the Global Future: the NIC 2020 Project Report

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK


1. World

The weeklong Small Islands Conference adopted the Mauritius Strategy to address vital challenges including climate change and rising sea levels, disasters, environmental management, land and energy resources, globalization, and trade liberalization. The meeting took on particular significance after the Indian Ocean tsunami so dramatically illustrated the threats facing these countries.
http://www.un.org/smallislands2005

Tsunami relief and reconstruction efforts continue. Reports of fraud and corruption, including child trafficking, have emerged. The situations in rebel areas of Sri Lanka and Aceh, Indonesia have been difficult; note last week's article on this topic.
https://terrorismcentral.com/Newsletters/2005/010905.html#FeatureArticle

David Veness, former commander of Scotland Yard's specialist operations, has been named UN Under-secretary General for Safety and Security.


2. Africa

Ituri region of Democratic Republic of Congo was the scene of ethnic fighting between Hema and Lendu militias, forcing as many as 7,000 people to flee across the lake to Uganda where they were stranded at the bottom of a steep cliff. Another 10,000 fled further north to the border town of Ishaka.

In Kenya, inter-clan violence between the Garre and Murule killed 21 people in the last week, in revenge for an attack that killed nine. Some reports suggest a political motive: the attacks are under investigation.

Somalia's parliament passed a vote of confidence on the new cabinet that plans to start relocating from Kenya back to Somalia within the next three weeks.

Sudan celebrated the peace agreement, but attacks have continued in Darfur and there are reports that government soldiers freed up after the agreement are being redeployed to Darfur, where there has been a massive build-up and militia forces are still being used in operations against the local population.


3. Americas

Colombia admitted paying bounty hunters to seize Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) commander Rodrigo Granda from Venezuela. Previously, Colombia had insisted the guerilla had been captured in a border town. Accusing Colombia of violating its national sovereignty, Venezuela froze diplomatic and trade links.

Haiti is preparing for elections later this year. The stabilization force is nearly at full strength but still faces attacks from militias and mobs.

The US Department of Defense transferred four British and one Australian detainee back to their homes following security assurances from the respective governments. Another detainee was transferred to Kuwait for trial.
http://www.defenselink.mil/releases/2005/nr20050111-1945.html
http://www.defenselink.mil/releases/2005/nr20050116-1986.html

Michael Chertoff of the US Justice Department has been nominated to replace Tom Ridge as Director of the Department of Homeland Security.

Venezuelan President Chavez signed a new land reform law to review land ownership and use throughout the country and support reform in aid of the rural poor.


4. Asia Pacific

China and Taiwan have agreed to allow direct flights between them for the first time since 1949.

Indonesia's government has suggested that the ceasefire with Free Aceh Movement (GAM) rebels after the tsunami should be made permanent, but GAM has not responded to the offer. The government has imposed restrictions on aid workers in the area but agencies say it has not interfered greatly with relief work.

Malaysia and Singapore reached agreement in principle to allow Singapore's land reclamation project in the narrow Johar Straits to continue while dispute over control of the shared waterway is settled with independent arbitrators.

Philippine troops and separatists of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) engaged in the worst fighting since the July 2003 ceasefire on the night of January 9, ahead of peace talks planned for next month. The fighting broke out when more than 100 MILF guerillas attacked a military post, killing at least six soldiers.

Vietnam has reported its fifth case of human infection with avian influenza.


5. Europe

Georgia's breakaway province Abkhazia held a second presidential election, with the two rivals running on a joint ticket after the first vote had been disputed. In a compromise arranged by Russia, opposition candidate Sergei Bagapsh will be President and his former rival Raul Khadzhimba will be the Vice President. Georgia does not recognize the election.

German police raided mosques across the country; arresting 22 suspected Islamic radicals accused of money laundering and falsification of documents to support terrorism.

In Kosovo a UN police officer was killed in a bomb explosion.

Across Russia, pensioners have participated in large numbers to protest changes in public benefits.

Spanish Prime Minister Zapatero met with Basque president Ibarretxe to discuss moves towards more regional independence. Basque separatist group ETA says it is ready to begin talks with the Spanish government.


6. Middle East

Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazan) won a landslide victory in the Palestinian presidential election. Proposals to leverage the election to open new talks with Israel were short-lived. A double suicide bombing at the Karni crossing between Gaza Strip and Israel killed six Israelis. In response, Israel sealed off the Gaza Strip and has suspended all contacts until Abbas acts against militants. The Palestine Liberation Front has called for an end to attacks against Israel. Also during the week, Israeli forces killed three Palestinians during operations in Gaza, including one man who was driving his neighbor to the hospital.

Israeli security officials report that Lebanese Hezbollah was behind 20 percent of attacks in the West Bank and Gaza in 2004.

In Iraq preparations for elections continue although a number of election officials have resigned and the interim government has conceded that voting will be limited in at least four provinces. Violence last week included the assassination of two aides to Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani and the murder of Baghdad's deputy police chief and his son in addition to suicide bombings and roadside attacks. In Falluja, some 85,000 residents inspected the damage to their homes following the US bombing; only about 8500 of them remained. An article by Ali Fadhil describes Falluja as the "City of ghosts" http://www.guardian.co.uk/g2/story/0,,1387316,00.html The US has ended its futile search for weapons of mass destruction and the Iraq Survey Group has been redirected to help with counterinsurgency efforts. Preliminary findings of an independent inquiry into the oil-for-food program reports inadequate monitoring by the UN bot no evidence of irregular activities or corruption.

Kuwaiti security forces report killing two suspected militants, including one wanted in Saudi Arabia.

Saudi police report they killed four militants connected with al Qaeda in a shoot-out last weekend.


7. South Asia

Afghan officials report that around 80 prisoners held by the US military have been released. In Helmand province Taleban gunmen shot dead six government soldiers.

In Indian-administered Kashmir a daylong siege ended with the death of two militants and two soldiers.

Nepal announced a nine-percent increase in its defense budget, directed against Maoist rebels, who have not responded to the government's proposed ceasefire talks.

Pakistan troops are guarding Balochistan gas fields after several days of clashes with tribal militants killed at least eight people. Hostages held by the militants were freed.

In Sri Lanka, UN Secretary General Annan visited the Tamil Tiger-controlled north, despite having previously agreed to accede to government demands to stay away. UNICEF reports that the Tigers have recruited child soldiers from tsunami relief camps.


8. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare

Microsoft has released information about additional Windows security flaws, including two labeled as critical.

A new worm, Cellery, disguised itself as a game of Tetris.
http://www.sophos.com/virusinfo/articles/cellery.html

T-Mobile cellphone users in the USA were warned that Nicolas Jacobsen had access to voicemail and email of customers that gave him access to extensive personal information, including Secret Service documents. Jacobsen was arrested in October.

David Talbot writes about ways that the internet both enables and inhibits terrorism in "Terror's Server", in the February issue of MIT's Technology Review.
http://www.technologyreview.com/articles/05/02/issue/feature_terror.asp

The European Union has approved clauses for international data transfers.
http://europa.eu.int/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=IP/05/12&format=HTML&aged=0&language=EN&guiLanguage=en


9. Finance

A US appeals court has found, in the case of Whitfield v. United States, that the government can obtain a money-laundering conviction without demonstrating that the conspirators carried out their plan.
http://www.supremecourtus.gov/opinions/04pdf/03-1293.pdf

Northern Ireland representatives with Sinn Fein have responded to police accusations that the Irish Republican Army was involved in the massive Northern Bank robbery. Gerry Adams warned there was no evidence of their involvement and people should not to jump to conclusions while Martin McGuinness says such a robbery would be unacceptable and not in the best interests of the IRA.

A jury in Bristol, UK, heard evidence in a drug smuggling case that the accused brought hid a massive amount of cocaine in a shipment of cashew nuts.

Switzerland has agreed to publish the names of another 3,100 accounts linked to the Holocaust.

The US Treasury identified 15 companies and 24 individuals associated with money laundering the drug operations of the Arellano Felix Organization.
http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/js2191.htm

US federal bank and thrift regulatory agencies issued a final rule for proper disposal of consumer information obtained from credit reports.
http://www.occ.treas.gov/fr/fedregister/69fr77610.pdf


10. Human Rights

Human Rights Watch released its annual world survey, reporting that "The worldwide system for protecting human rights was significantly weakened in 2004 by the crisis in Darfur and the Abu Ghraib scandal".
http://www.hrw.org/wr2k5/

The US Supreme Court overturned federal sentencing guidelines as violating sixth amendment rights for trial by jury and said that instead judge's have broad discretion and should use congressional sentencing rules as suggestions.

Filip Reyntjens criticized the international war crimes tribunal for Rwanda for indicting only Hutus, not Tutsis, in a kind of "victors' justice" and says that as a result he will no longer cooperate with the tribunal.

In "Poor People's Knowledge", the World Bank describes how the poor can turn their knowledge into higher incomes with modern intellectual property protections.
http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/NEWS/0,,contentMDK:20312316~menuPK:34457~pagePK:34370~piPK:34424~theSitePK:4607,00.html


11. Law and Legal Issues

Mushtaq Ahmed, a former air force officer, was arrested in connection with the attempted assassination of Pakistani President Musharraf, but he has escaped from custody.

In Clark v. Martinez, the US Supreme Court rejected indefinite detention in a case in which Mariel Cubans had been held because the Cuban government refused to take them back.
http:// www.supremecourtus.gov/opinions/04pdf/03-878.pdf

Philip Cummings has been sentenced to 14 years prison by a New York court, for stealing personal identity information from more than 30,000 customers.
http://newyork.fbi.gov/dojpressrel/pressrel05/cummingssentencingpr.pdf

Steven Michael Ekberg was arrested in Florida, US, for possessing the biological agent ricin.
http://jacksonville.fbi.gov/pressrel/2005/jkekberg011305.htm

Charles Graner, a US soldier considered the ringleader of the Abu Ghraib prison abuse scandal, was found guilty in military court, sentenced to ten years prison, and dishonorably discharged.

Nicolas Jacobsen was arrested for breaking in to the T-Mobile phone network and accessing millions of personal email and voice messages.

Justin McAuliffe was given sentenced to eight life terms in British court for a 2-week package bombing campaign last year in which 33 explosive packages were sent out.

Adolfo Scilingo, a former Argentine naval officer, went on trial in Spain for killing political prisoners during Argentina's dirty war. Spanish law allows trials for genocide that occurred outside the country.

Mark Thatcher, son of the former British Prime Minister, has pleaded guilty to paying GBP 150,000 to mercenaries involved in an attempted coup against Equatorial Guinea. Charged under South African anti-mercenary laws, he was sentenced to pay a fine of GBP 265,000 and a 4-year prison sentence that was suspended. He and his family have moved to the US state of Texas.

Savo Todovic, former commander at a Serbian camp during the Balkans conflict in the 1990s, is wanted the international tribunal in The Hague. Aided by Bosnian authorities for the first time, the suspect surrendered and was flown to the court where he will stand trial for war crimes.


12. Transportation

The International Maritime Organization is coordinating restoration of maritime infrastructure in the Indian Ocean areas affected by the tsunami. http://www.imo.org/ The tsunami has stopped most piracy attacks in the area.

Germany's President Koehler signed a new law that permits hijacked aircraft to be shot down, but has suggested a legal review to see if this violated constitutional prohibitions against the government killing its citizens.

The US Department of Transportation announced new measures regarding lasers shown into airplane cockpits during take-off or landing. The crew should avoid direct eye contact and report the incident for investigation.
http://www.dot.gov/affairs/dot0805.htm


13. Weapons of Mass Destruction

North Korea will return to the 6-party talks regarding its nuclear ambitions.

The US has stopped its search for WMD in Iraq.
http://www.carnegieendowment.org/npp/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=16382

Avian influenza breakouts continue to spread. In Vietnam, there are additional human infections. Since mid-December last year, six cases have been reported of which four died. Meanwhile, a Dutch report published in Eurosurveillance Weekly reveals that there were high rates of person-to--person transmission during a 2003 poultry farm outbreak in the Netherlands.
http://www.who.int
http://www.eurosurveillance.org/

The Century Foundation's Working Group on Bioterrorism Preparedness issued its final report. "Breathing Easier?" says that there have been improvements in the US public health system but substantial vulnerabilities remain.
http://www.tcf.org/Publications/HomelandSecurity/breathingeasier.pdf

Joby Warrick of the Washington Post reports on "Albania's Chemical Cache Raises Fears About Others" in the January 10 issue.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A61698-2005Jan9.html


14. Recently Published

Yvonne Bornstein with Mark Ribowski, "Eleven Days of Hell: My True Story of Kidnapping, Terror, Torture and Historic FBI and KGB Rescue, AuthorHouse

Gary A. Haugen with Gregg Hunter, "Terrify No More" W Publishing

Noreena Hertz, "The Debt Threat: how Debt is Destroying the Developing World" Harper Business

Samuel M. Katz, "Jihad in Brooklyn: The NYPD Raid that Stopped America's First Suicide Bombers" New American Library

Russ Rogers, " Hacking a Terror Network", Syngress
http://www.oreilly.com/catalog/1928994989/

Robert Service, "Stalin: A Biography" Macmillan; Belknap Press


FEATURE ARTICLE: Mapping the Global Future: the NIC 2020 Project Report

The National Intelligence Council (NIC) is a group that supports the US intelligence community, through the Central Intelligence Agency, with long-term strategic thinking around future events and their security implications.

Last week NIC published their third unclassified report, "Mapping the Global Future", that looks at how the world will evolve over the next 15 years. Its findings are based on a yearlong series of international conferences and involved more than a thousand participants around the world. In contrast to previous years, this report used scenario planning - including a simulation tool now offered in part online - that helps leverage the collected data and understand the alternate futures that present us.

The first of four topic areas covered in the report is "The Contradictions of Globalization". This is seen as "an overarching 'mega-trend', a force so ubiquitous that it will substantially shape all the other major trends in the world of 2020" and will increasingly take on a non-Western face, led by China, India and Indonesia. The report projects that the global economy will be 80 percent larger and average per capita income about fifty percent higher. China's gross national product (GNP) will exceed all but the US and India's will be close to or have overtaken European economies. These changes will continue to be felt unevenly around the world. The projected trends could be slowed by pervasive insecurity or stopped by a global pandemic.

"The Changing Geopolitical Landscape" section looks at the rise of China and India as major global players and the decline, largely through falling populations, of Europe. With projected populations of 1.4 and 1.3 billion respectively, their global economic impact need not reflect great improvements in individual standards of living. Both countries are also expanding military powers. Other rising states include Indonesia, Brazil, South Africa and perhaps Russia. These countries growing economic power will be leveraged to geopolitical advantage. In turn, the US will not continue to stand as the world's single superpower and how it adapts to this change will determine whether or not it remains a global leader.

The third section, "New Challenges to Governance", predicts that economic globalization and technology dispersion will place great strains on governments, although the nation-state will remain the dominant unit. They warn of economic inequality and halting progress on democratization and cite "new forms of identity politics centered on religious convictions and ethnic affiliation" posing particular challenges.

The fourth section is perhaps of the greatest interest to this audience: "Pervasive Insecurity". In addition to concerns over job security and migration, the report projects a pervasive fear of terrorism and conflict and warns that their reality could interrupt the process of globalization.

In the next 15 years transmuting international terrorism shows no sign of abating and a majority of groups will identify with radical Islamic tied to deepening Muslim identity and solidarity, particularly among groups that have been caught up in regional conflict or government repression. Terrorist groups will be dispersed and diffuse, largely self-sufficient in obtaining money and weapons and in determining their tactics and targets. Their ability to conduct cyberattacks and to obtain weapons of mass destruction, particularly biological agents, will grow stronger. Organized crime will also thrive and will have strong business relationships with terrorist groups.

Although the number of internal conflicts has fallen since the break-up of the Soviet Union and eastern Europe, "Lagging economies, ethnic affiliations, intense religious convictions, and youth bulges, will align to create a 'perfect storm'" for intensifying internal conflict. Sub-Saharan Africa will be at particular risk and where ethnic groups cross national boundaries, the internal conflicts can quickly become regional.

Large international conflicts are less likely because "...even if conflict would break out over Taiwan or between India and Pakistan, outside powers as well as the primary actors would want to limit its extent. Additionally, the growing dependence on global financial and trade networks increasingly will act as a deterrent to conflict among the great powers - the US, Europe, China, India, Japan and Russia". On the other hand, they warn of lack of effective conflict resolution mechanisms in some areas and technical advances that could encourage preemptive military force.

Finally, the report warns of further weapons proliferation, including their acquisition by non-nuclear powers, and further development of chemical and biological weapons. In particular, "Countries will continue to integrate both CW and BW production capabilities into apparently legitimate commercial infrastructures, further concealing them from scrutiny, and BW/CW programs will be less reliant on foreign suppliers". There is a significant risk that terrorists will use these weapons, particularly biological.

The report concludes with a discussion of the policy implications illustrated by the different scenarios presented in the document. Despite these daunting projections they believe that "the prospects for global prosperity and the limited likelihood of great power conflict provide an overall favorable environment for coping with the challenges ahead".

Additional Information:

The complete report is available for download or purchase from http://www.cia.gov/nic/NIC_2020_project.html
NIC also developed an interactive web site - International Futures - with simulations that is available at http://ifsmodel.org/

For another scenario of the future, see "Ten Years Later" by Richard Clarke in Atlantic Monthly, Jan/Feb 2005 issue.
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/prem/200501/clark


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