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CONTENTS:

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK:

1. World
2. Africa
3. Americas
4. Asia Pacific
5. Europe
6. Middle East
7. South Asia
8. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare
9. Finance
10 Human Rights
11. Law and Legal Issues
12. Transportation
13. Weapons of Mass Destruction
14. Recently Published

FEATURE ARTICLE:
World AIDS Day 2004

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK

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1. World

The UN's High-level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change presented its 95-page report, "A more secure world: our shared responsibility". The prominent 16-member panel had been established in November 2003 to assess current international threats, evaluate the UN's ability to address them, and recommend any necessary policy and institutional changes. In 101 recommendations the report addresses six areas the Panel identified as presenting the greatest threats to worldwide security in this century: continued poverty and environmental degradation, terrorism, civil war, conflict between states, WMD proliferation, and organized crime. http://www.un.org/secureworld/
http://www.un.org/apps/news/infocusRel.asp?infocusID=84&Body=xxxxx&Body1=

British investigators Peter Stott of the Met Office and Myles Allen and Daithi Stone of Oxford University used sophisticated climate models and statistical techniques, like those used to link smoking and cancer to separate human factors from natural ones, to analyze the relationship between human activity and global warming. In Europe the exceptionally hot summer of 2003 is estimated to have caused more than 20,000 deaths. In a paper published in the December 2 issue of Nature the researchers report that human activity has more than doubled the risk of further extreme events. They further pose the question that if human activity can be so implicated, could a victim then seek legal redress.
http://www.nature.com/nature/links/041202/041202-2.html

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) reports that oil price increases have lowered global growth but believes major economies will regain momentum next year. http://www.oecd.org/document/18/0,2340,en_2649_201185_20347538_1_1_1_1,00.html

North Korea released a statement following meetings with the US last week in which they say they will not return to talks until the policies of the second Bush administration clearly emerge.

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2. Africa

Burundi has begun disarming soldiers and former rebels and forming a new national army as well as preparing for elections. This is one of several initiatives in the Great Lakes region to end long-running conflicts and remain on track for prosperous peace. These efforts are threatened by a widening conflict between Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda.

In eastern DRC a group of Rwandan troops has been attacking and burning villages. Initially denied by Rwanda, UN observers, diplomats and reporters have witnessed the attacks, thousands of Rwandan troops have amassed at the border, and thousands of civilians have fled. Rwandan President Kagame had warned he would take military action to address continued rebel and militia activities. The last time Rwanda attacked DRC was in 1998, hunting the perpetrators of the genocide. Their action sparked a regional conflict that killed three million people. Uganda has also deployed troops along its border following increased activity by Ugandan insurgents based in eastern DRC. (Note other TerrorismCentral coverage at https://terrorismcentral.com/Newsletters/2002/081102.html#FeatureArticle, https://terrorismcentral.com/Newsletters/2003/110203.html#FeatureArticle, etc.)

In Equatorial Guinea 19 people accused of plotting a coup were sentenced to lengthy terms in prison. This week reports emerged that Britain had been told of the plot well in advance and took no action and the Spanish government was also accused of supporting the plot. Both governments have played down the accusations. Meanwhile, both Amnesty International and the International Bar Association report that the trial did not meet international standards for a fair trial.

Ivory Coast rebels have assured the UN there will be no repeats of incidents such shooting at a World Food Program aircraft. The French government has admitted that its soldiers killed about 20 people, both soldiers and civilians, during clashes in early November, raising questions of the use of excessive force during the four days of rioting.

Somalia's interim government in exile has named a new cabinet. Clan fighting in central Somalia killed at least 30 and injured at least 70.

In the Darfur region of Sudan fresh fighting broke out following a shooting at a displaced persons camp. The Sudanese government ordered two international aid workers - the country directors of Oxfam and Save the Children - be expelled for making political statements that support outlaws and rebels but the government has since agreed to review the situation and delay the expulsion.

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3. Americas

Chile will compensate more than 28,000 victims of torture with life pensions. The move follows publication of the official report of the national commission on political detention and torture that described abuses under the Pinochet dictatorship 1973-1990. Victims groups protested that the pensions, pending congressional approval, total only $70 million, or $190 per month.

Colombia's Congress has passed the controversial bill to allow President Uribe to stand for a second term rather than being limited to one. The government has announced the pardon of 23 members of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) in a goodwill measure to encourage reciprocal freeing of rebel-held hostages.

In Haiti, shootouts and a prison riot during US Secretary of State Powell's visit left a dozen people dead and many more injured. Facing increasing violence, the UN mission has received a renewed 6-month mandate.

US Director of Homeland Security Tom Ridge announced his resignation. President Bush nominated former New York police commissioner Bernard Kerik as his replacement. http://www.dhs.gov/dhspublic/display?content=4179 The Department of Homeland Security also announced $2.5 billion in state and local grants. http://www.dhs.gov/dhspublic/display?content=4185

The US State Department's Inspector General issued an analysis of the problems with the 2003 Patterns of Global Terrorism report, finding widespread mistakes, inconsistencies, and problems with the underlying assumptions. http://oig.state.gov/documents/organization/38680.pdf

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4. Asia Pacific

Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) leaders held a summit highlighting economic integration in eleven priority sectors: electronics, e-ASEAN, healthcare, wood-based products, automotives, rubber-based products, textiles and apparels, agro-based products, fisheries, air travel and tourism. http://www.aseansec.org/16620.htm China and ASEAN have signed a trade agreement and Australia and New Zealand have begun discussions. The ASEAN-China trade agreement creates a $2 trillion market.

Burmese opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi's house arrest has been extended for an unknown time. Indonesia and Thailand have both applied pressure on the Burmese military junta to encourage political reforms. Burma launched a major offensive against Indian separatist groups sheltering in border areas.

Indonesia's separatist rebels of the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) marked the anniversary of their founding on December 4, 1976. This year the province is under a state of emergency and people have been warned that showing the GAM flag or participating in ceremonies could lead soldiers to shoot on sight. In West Papua province, independence supporters marked the December 1 ceremony of the 1961 national congress organized by the ruling Dutch in preparation for independence. Indonesian security forces responded to the flag raising with force, shooting five people and arresting 18.

Thai Prime Minister Thaksin organized schoolchildren to create some 100-million origami birds, many with messages of peace, that were dropped from about 50 military planes across the restive southern provinces as a sign of good will. Officials in the south developed special waste management plans while children tried to catch the paper birds in nets in the hope of finding the one signed by Thaksin, whose finder will receive a scholarship. Calls for a political solution remain strong. Thailand is considering new legislation modeled after internal Security Acts in Singapore and Malaysia to provide longer detention without trial. Thai police already routinely bypass legal proceedings and martial law is already in effect in several areas of the south.

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5. Europe

In Bosnia Herzegovina 7,000 European Union troops (Eufor) have taken over from NATO, that had supplied 100,000 troops over the past nine years. The handover to routine peacekeeping duties is considered an important sign of stability.

Georgia's breakaway republic of Abkhazia has been further isolated following Russia's closure of its rail link due to post-election tensions. Selling oranges and other agricultural products to Russia has been the major source of income. Abkhazia's parliament voted to recognize opposition candidate Sergey Bagapsh as the new president.

Germany reports that wiretapped conversations leading to a series of raids across the country interrupted a plot to assassinate interim Iraqi prime minister Ayad Allawi on his visit to Germany. Three men, alleged members of Ansar al-Islam, were arrested but no weapons or explosives were found.

Kosovo's parliament elected Ramush Haradinaj the new Prime Minister. Haradinaj is an ethnic Albanian and former rebel leader of Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) army units. He is allegedly connected with war crimes against Serbs but has not been indicted.

Poland has opened a war crimes investigation into the 1940 Katyn Forest massacre.

Romanians voted in presidential and parliamentary elections that have been accompanied by accusations of fraud connected with operational issues including suspension of the use of voter cards. The opposition leader has called for the results to be annulled and election officials to be dismissed but the electoral bureau has rejected their call and upheld a narrow victory to the governing Social Democrats.

Russian President Putin's plan to replace elected regional governors with his own appointees was approved in the State Duma and now moves on to the upper house.

Serbian President Boris Tadic survived an incident in which a driver repeatedly hit his car before fleeing the scene. At first it was considered an assassination attempt but further investigation revealed the attacker was a security guard at the US embassy, who attacked in a case of road rage.

Spain's Basque separatist group ETA set off five coordinated explosions at gasoline stations in the outskirts of Madrid. Warnings were issued in advance and damage was minor but the incident demonstrates that ETA is still functioning despite many arrests and recovery of weapons caches. Former prime minister Jose Maria Aznar testified at the parliamentary inquiry into the March 11 train bombings, asserting there were ties between ETA and Islamic terrorists.

Turkish police arrested twelve armed Chechen militants ahead of a scheduled visit by Russian president Putin.

Ukraine's Supreme Court ruled the presidential elections had been fraudulent and ordered a repeat of the second-round election between Yushchenko and Yanukovich to take place by December 26.

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6. Middle East

Egyptian human rights groups report that as many as 3,000 people were detained after the October bombings at Red Sea resorts: some were tortured.

In Gaza on Nov 29, Israeli troops killed two Palestinian militants who attacked an army post.

Iraq's police and security forces were the target of several major attacks in Baghdad and elsewhere. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has issued a new report finding that "The odds of lasting US success in Iraq are now at best even, and may well be worse. The US can almost certainly win every military battle and clash, but it is far less certain to win the political and economic war. US success is also heavily dependent on two variables that the US can influence, but not control. The first is the emergence of a government that Iraqis see as legitimate and which can effectively govern. The second is the ability to create Iraqi military and security forces that can largely replace US and other Coalition forces no later than 2006". http://www.csis.org/features/iraq_playingcourse.pdf Last weeks series of car bombs and other attacks make succeeding in these two critical variables at even greater risk. In another illustration of the massive security problems, the US embassy banned travel along the ten miles of highway that connect the embassy to the airport, and instead are making the trip by helicopter. The British embassy has also discontinued use of the road and warned staff against taking commercial planes. In addition, to support security around the planned January 30 elections, US forces are being increased by 12,000 to 150,000, a number greater than in the initial invasion. The death toll, casualty rate, and numbers of displaced people are all at record levels.

In Lebanon, large government-backed demonstrations were held in support of Syria's presence.

Jailed Palestinian leader Marwan Barghouti has entered the presidential race after previously backing Mahmoud Abbas. In addition to these two, eight other candidates are vying to replace Arafat. They include Mustafa Barghouti, Abdel Sattar Qassem, Bassam Salhi, Tayssir Khaled, Abdel Karim Shbier, Hassan Khreisheh, Abdel Halim al-Ashqar and Alsaied Barakh.

The World Bank's new report " Stagnation or Revival: Israeli Disengagement and Palestinian Economic Prospects" says that a disengagement plan accompanied by a rollback of Israel's closure policy and a strong Palestinian commitment to reform will lift the Palestinian economy out of stagnation. http://www.worldbank.org/ps

The International Day of Solidarity with the Palestinian People was marked on November 29.

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7. South Asia

Afghanistan set up an inquiry into an incident in which the poppy crop in two eastern districts was sprayed with chemicals without authorization, making farmers ill. The US denied involvement but supports a major offensive against the opium industry, including aerial spraying. Government discussions with the Taliban have been underway, and the US ambassador suggested that if Taliban disarm they would not be targeted. His authority to make this appeal is unclear but in the event, Taliban leaders rejected the suggestion.

Indian rebels of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (Khaplang faction) reported the loss of six mobile bases at the hands of Burmese troops in an ongoing Burmese/Indian offensive against Indian separatist groups that shelter in Burma. In operations in the northeast, the Indian army reports similar success directed against rebel groups in Manipur.

In Indian-administered Kashmir, suspected militants killed at least five police in an attack against a paramilitary camp in which one militant also dies.

Pakistani police were involved in a shootout with Chechen militants in Quetta. One suspected militant was killed and eleven police injured.

Sri Lankan Tamil Tiger rebels called a strike in protest at anti-Tamil violence following a number of clashes in the east where a curfew is in place in Trincomalee. The government rejected Tiger demands to resume peace talks without conditions.

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8. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare

Microsoft has issued a fix for the critical Internet Explorer IFRAME (Bofra) vulnerability.
Sophos has published its list of the top ten viruses and hoaxes in November, including the two new viruses Sober-I and Bagle-AU as well as continued irritants Netsky-P and Zafi-B.
http://www.sophos.com/pressoffice/pressrel/uk/20041201topten.html

British Prime Minister Blair announced penalties including jail terms of up to ten years for misuse of the planned national identity database.

Lycos Europe launched the "MakeLoveNotSpam" campaign to encourage users to download a screensaver that when idle bombarded spamming sites with massive amounts of data to help increase the cost for the spammers. Several sites were overwhelmed or knocked out and the action may not be legal but the site hosting the screensaver is now only showing a "stay tuned" message.
http://www.sophos.com/spaminfo/articles/lycos.html
http://makelovenotspam.com/intl

The US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) Fall issue of Consumer News focuses on strategies to combat identity theft.
http://www.fdic.gov/consumers/consumer/news/cnfall04/index.html

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9. Finance

Fourteen Arab states agreed to establish a regional task force, the Middle East and North Africa Financial Action Task Force (MENFATF), to counter money laundering and terrorism financing. They agreed to six objectives:

http://www.omanobserver.com/wednesday/hnews6.htm

In Mexico City three federal police officers were killed by cartel hit men who wanted their list of the names of people laundering drug money.

Swiss authorities have blocked bank accounts holding some $100 million in connection with an investigation of alleged bribery in Nigeria on the part of an oil services company Halliburton subsidiary.

The UN report "A more secure world" (See World, above) includes two recommendations regarding AML/CFT. Regarding terrorism they suggest that member states should adopt the FATF eight Special Recommendations on Terrorist Financing and other best practices. Regarding organized crime, they point out that anti money laundering is the best strategy to weaken these criminal organizations since it removes their motive of financial gain. They recommend that a comprehensive international convention to address AML issues be negotiated and endorsed by the General Assembly.

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10. Human Rights

Francis Newton, scheduled to be executed in the US state of Texas, has been granted a 120-day reprieve to allow additional testing of evidence used in her conviction. If the conviction and sentence stand, she will be the first black woman executed in the US since the end of the Civil War in 1865.

Neil Lewis, in the November 30 New York Times, describes a confidential report from the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) to the US government that charged "that the American military has intentionally used psychological and sometimes physical coercion 'tantamount to torture' on prisoners at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba". The US denies the charges and ICRC does not reveal the content of confidential reports.
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/30/politics/30gitmo.html
http://www.voanews.com/english/2004-11-30-voa74.cfm
http://www.icrc.org/Web/eng/siteeng0.nsf/iwpList4/C5667B446C9A4DF7C1256F5C00403967

The International Day for the Abolition of Slavery on December 2 reminded people that slavery is not just in the past: "Today, millions of men, women and children are bought and sold as chattels, forced into bonded labour, held as slaves for ritual or religious purpose, or trafficked across borders, often to be sold into prostitution".
http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2004/sgsm9626.doc.htm

The International Day of Disabled Persons was marked on December 3 with calls to give disabled people "the full spectrum of civil, political, social, cultural and economic rights".
http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=12710&Cr=disabled&Cr1=

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11. Law and Legal Issues

Rabei Osman Sayed Ahmed ("Mohammed the Egyptian") will be extradited from Italy, where he was arrested in June, to Spain, where he is wanted in connection with the March 11 attacks.

Hassan al-Turabi, Islamist leader of Sudan opposition Popular National Congress party, has been in custody since an alleged coup attempt in March. Charges of planning the coup have been dropped but al-Turabi will not be released.

Abdullah Barghouti of Hamas was sentenced to 67 life terms by an Israel Defense Forces military court.

Lori Berenson lost her appeal to the Inter-American Court of Human Rights, that ruled her 20-year prison sentence for assisting rebels will stand despite her argument she was not given a fair trial.

The Center for Constitutional Rights and four former Iraqi prisoners have filed a criminal complaint with the German Federal Prosecutor's Office to investigate the culpability of US officials in torture at Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq.
http://www.ccr-ny.org/v2/reports/report.asp?ObjID=TCRlT9TuSb&Content=471

General Stanislav Galic was sentenced in the International Criminal Tribunal for Yugoslavia to 20 years prison for his role in the three-year siege of Sarajevo. Thousands of civilians died in the siege that ended in 1995.

William John Mullan, Jonathan William Rossborough, Alan Hugh McClean, 36, William Thomas Seenan, and Stephen Douglas were arrested and charged in Northern Ireland with planning to kidnap a bank official and rob a bank. The operation has been linked to the loyalist Defense Association. They have been granted bail.

Brandon O'Connor of Northern Ireland has been cleared of charges connected with a plan to bomb a police station in July 2000.

Gilberto Rodriguez Orejuela, former leader of the Cali drug cartel, has been extradited from Colombia to is the US where he is wanted on charges of smuggling and money laundering. Colombia's Supreme Court has not yet cleared the extradition of his brother and fellow cartel leader Miguel.

Magomed Salikhov has been arrested in Azerbaijan and extradited to Russia where he is wanted in connection with 1999 apartment bombings and other attacks.

Rami Teikh, leader of the Tul Karm military wing of Hamas, was arrested by Israeli troops in connection with planning an Israeli settlement infiltration in which one man was killed.

Damir Travica, a former Bosnian Serb general has been transferred from Serbia to The Hague where the international tribunal has charged him with war crimes during the 1992 Balkan conflict.

Zimbabwe's attorney general has appealed to the Supreme Court to overturn the acquittal of opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai, who had been accused of treason.

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12. Transportation

he US Transportation Security Administration received hundreds of complaints regarding personal security checks after "pat-downs" were introduced following suspicions that the Russian plane bombings in September were undertaken by women carrying explosives under their clothing. In response, TSA insists they will continue the examinations, but has provided additional public information to support it.
http://www.tsa.gov/public/display?theme=40&content=09000519800ce037

Swissport in Zurich has begun testing a biometric passenger card to help speed up check-in times.

In Guyana, piracy attacks directed against local fisherman have increased in connection with Christmas. Equipment and catches have been targeted.

The US Coast Guard is planning checks of ports and terminals in 135 countries over the next three years to verify International Ship and Port Facility Security (ISPS) compliance.
http://www.uscg.mil/hq/g-m/mp/mtsa.shtml

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13. Weapons of Mass Destruction

The Center for International Trade and Security and the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) published "Nuclear Security Culture: The Case of Russia", edited by Igor Khripunov and James Holmes. The report says that beyond physical protection, site personnel are critical to improving security at Russian nuclear sites.
http://www.uga.edu/cits/home/

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors adopted a resolution regarding Iran's nuclear programs that called for assurances about undeclared activities and greater access.
http://www.iaea.org

Rwanda has signed and ratified the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty.

The Framework Convention on Tobacco will enter into force next year following ratification by 40 countries.
http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2004/pr89/en/

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14. Recently Published

John Steele Gordon, "An Empire of Wealth: The Epic History of American Economic Poser" Harper Collins

Jerome Kassirer, "On the Take: How Medicine's Complicity with Big Business Can Endanger Your Health" Oxford University Press

Andrew Meier, "Chechnya: To the Heart of a Conflict", Norton

Jean-Cristophe Rufin, "Brazil Red", Norton

Spammer-X, "Inside the Spam Cartel", Syngress

Strobe Talbott, "Engaging India: Diplomacy, Democracy, and the Bomb" Brookings Institution

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FEATURE ARTICLE: World AIDS Day 2004

World AIDS Day is observed annually on December 1. This year spotlighted the epidemic's impact on women and girls, with events around the globe ranging from a concert in Armenia to a sports tournament, candlelight memorial service, and essay competition in Zambia.

By focusing on women, discussions of HIV/AIDS move beyond basic medicine to take into account broader human rights issues and their impact not only on local societies but on global economies.

AIDS was first clinically identified through incident clusters, beginning with homosexual men in the US, and with infections among men vastly outnumbering those in women. Today, more than twenty years since the pandemic began its lethal spread, nearly half of adults infected with HIV are women, and their numbers are increasing rapidly. In sub-Saharan Africa women make up nearly 60 percent of HIV infections. In Africa and the Caribbean as many as twice the number of young women are affected than men. In some areas of Africa there can be six times more women infected than men and in some cases more than a third of teenage girls are infected.

The human cost of the disease is extraordinary. Every day 2000 babies are infected during pregnancy, at birth, or through breast-feeding and most of them will die before their fifth birthday. In sub-Saharan Africa, two girls are infected for every boy and it is expected that the number of children orphaned to AIDS will exceed 20 million by the end of this decade. In the US, AIDS disproportionately affects African American and Hispanic women. Among Africa-American women aged 35-44, AIDS is among the top three causes of death. In the Caribbean (second most affected after sub-0Saharan Africa) AIDS is the leading cause of death among adults aged 15-44. In the world today an estimated 37.8 million people are infected with HIV, including around five million new infections.

Women are more vulnerable to HIV/AIDS because of poverty, lower levels of education and limited access to resources. In some heavily affected countries married women have higher infection rates than their unmarried sexually active peers. After their husbands die these women are often forced into prostitution to survive. UNAIDS director Dr Peter Piot recommended providing HIV-positive widows direct financial aid to help stop the spread of disease. Equal access to healthcare is essential. In one clinic in Ethiopia, a third of patients getting anti-retroviral drug treatment were women although they represented a majority of those infected In Asia, trafficking of young girls has been identified as a key factor in the steep increase in infections. Overall, the greater the amount of gender discrimination and the lower the position of women, the more they are affected by HIV.

Beyond human rights, HIV/AIDS is a development problem that the World Bank says "threatens human welfare, socio-economic advances, productivity, social cohesion, and even national security. HIV/AIDS reaches into every corner of society, affecting parents, children and youth, teachers and health workers, rich and poor".

The International Labour Organization (ILO) points to HIV/AIDS as a workplace issue, "not only because it affects labour and productivity, but also because the workplace has a vital role to play in the wider struggle to limit the spread and effects of the epidemic". They point to at least 26 million workers aged 15-49 infected in the prime of life with an epidemic that ""strikes hard at the most vulnerable groups in society including the poorest of the poor, women and children, exacerbating existing problems of inadequate social protection, gender inequalities, and child labour".

ILO cites six ways in which the pandemic affects work:

In turn the affects of the pandemic have a critical impact on businesses and the economy.

ILO tracked the impact of HIV/AIDS on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in 47 countries for which data was available. In countries with the highest prevalence the impact is extraordinary. All together, the 41 countries with a measurable impact saw a loss of more than $17 billion per year between 1992-2002.

A specific example may make the extent of the problem clearer. South Africa has the largest economy in Africa. Labor force losses from 1992-2002 led to economic losses of more than $7 billion annually, a per capita loss of $115 per year. The South African Business Coalition on HIV and AIDS (SABCOHA) released their survey of the impact of HIV/AIDS on selected business sectors. Their findings show that more than 60 percent of mines and 50 percent of manufacturers said HIV/AIDS is affecting productivity and profitability. The agriculture sector was not included in the survey but the impact has probably been even greater. SABCOHA, citing gold mining company Harmony's annual report, says that HIV/AIDS related costs could cost them between $2-$5 per ounce of gold produced and AngloGold estimates the financial impact of HIV/AIDS amounted to nearly two percent of their payroll. Such numbers do not only have an impact on the originator, but throughout global supply chains.

SABCOHA and ILO both offer detailed guidelines for how businesses can address the HIV/AIDS pandemic. Treat these as best practices for any business, whether operations are small and local or multinational and global. Links to these resources are cited below.

Additional Resources:

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