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AUTHOR:
TerrorismCentral Editorial Staff

TITLE:
TerrorismCentral Newsletter - June 4, 2006

SOURCE:
TerrorismCentral, June 4, 2006

TEXT:

The 25th anniversary of the first reported cases of HIV/AIDS infection is reported in emerging threats, where it joins avian influenza; public health where the latest UNAIDS report and related issues are summarized; and Recommended Reading, where the early years are recalled, painfully. Major terrorist raids in Canada and the UK are covered, as well as the political ramifications. News summaries also include such tidbits as Japan's record low and Australia's record high fertility rates, the tropical past of the Arctic, and the irrepressible.info campaign for freedom of information.


CONTENTS:

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK:

1. Global Terrorism Monitor
2. Political Risk Monitor
3. AML/CFT Monitor
4. Emerging Threat Monitor
5. Critical Infrastructure Monitor
6. Disaster Reduction Monitor
7. Recommended Reading
8. Asset Management Network News


1. Global Terrorism Monitor

For detailed analysis, background information and source documents become a Global Terrorism Monitor subscriber. You can purchase this and other titles here:
TAMNI Publications

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GTM Africa
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Burundi's government and rebels with the Hutu National Liberation Forces (FNL) are under way. FNL is the only group outside the power-sharing agreement. Even while the peace talks are continuing in Tanzania, the FNL ramped up attacks. They fired mortar bombs into Bujumbura, injuring several civilians. In the western province of Bubanza, one civilian was killed and four abducted.

Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC) UN Mission has been working with government forces to disarm militias in the east. Clashes with Nationalist and Integrationist Front (FNI) rebels on Monday killed one Nepalese peacekeeper. Seven are missing, and may have been kidnapped. Fighting last week killed 73 rebels and 14 soldiers.

Ethiopian Habar Yonis and Idagaale subclans near the Somaliland border fought over construction of a water reservoir. In four days of clashes, 39 people have been killed and 34 injured.

Ivory Coast government militias have agreed to disband in the south, beginning 8 June, then will continue to the rebel-controlled north until all armed groups have laid down their weapons. 1,500 UN personnel have been added to support these efforts.

In Nigeria's Delta a group of armed men attacked and kidnapped eight foreign oil workers: six UK, one Canadian, and one US. Negotiations with the kidnappers progressed well, and the hostages were released today. The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) says it was not involved in the incident.
http://www.fredolsen-energy.no/

The Republic of Congo has begun preparations for a national demobilization, disarmament, and reintegration program. Read this interview with one of the local officials involved:
http://www.globalterrorismmonitor.com/2006/06/GTM0402.shtml

Joseph Serugendo, a member of the governing board of the Radio Television Libre des Mille Collines (RTLM) and of the National Committee of the Interahamwe za MRND pleaded guilty to direct and public incitement to commit genocide and persecution as a crime against humanity. The International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda has sentenced him to six years imprisonment.
http://69.94.11.53/default.htm

Fighting between Somalia's Sharia courts and the Alliance for Peace and the Fight against International Terrorism (ARPCT) has continued, with the Islamic groups gaining the advantage. On Tuesday, ARPCT, calling themselves the Anti-Terrorism Alliance, commandeered a hospital north of the capital, Mogadishu. Five people died and dozens of the ill and injured fled the scene. The International Committee of the Red Cross calls this a violation of humanitarian law, and has asked the militiamen to leave lest they face future war crimes charges. On Wednesday, an Islamic militia seized a garage used as a base for their rivals. During the battle eight people were killed and ten injured. Spreading fighting on Thursday killed three and injured seven. Fighting on Friday killed at least 16 and injured dozens more. Anti-US demonstrations on Friday accused the US of financing the ARPCT in its genocide against Muslims. Today the Islamic Courts militia has seized the key town of Balad from warlord Muse Sudi Yalahow. They already control most of Mogadishu.

In Sudan's Darfur region, an African Union peacekeeper was ambushed and killed. The attackers were unknown. Soon after a peacekeeping base was attacked with rocket-propelled grenades, leaving six injured.

The Abdulwahid faction of the Sudan Liberation Movement/Army (SLM/A) and the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) failed to meet a 31 May deadline to join the Sudanese government and the main SLM rebel group in a Darfur peace agreement. Despite this, the groups claim that they will join the agreement through an annex being prepared by the African Union.

Interpol has issued the first Red Notices on behalf of the International Criminal Court, for five members of the Lord's Resistance Army in Uganda, suspected of war crimes and crimes against humanity.
http://www.icc-cpi.int/cases/current_situations/Uganda.html
http://www.interpol.int/Public/News/2006/ICCredNotices20060601.asp
Joseph Kony:
http://www.interpol.int/public/data/wanted/notices/data/2006/20/2006_26320.asp
Raska Lukwiya:
http://www.interpol.int/public/data/wanted/notices/data/2006/15/2006_26315.asp
Vincent Otti:
http://www.interpol.int/public/data/wanted/notices/data/2006/17/2006_26317.asp
Okot Odhiambo:
http://www.interpol.int/public/data/wanted/notices/data/2006/18/2006_26318.asp
Dominic Ongwen:
http://www.interpol.int/public/data/wanted/notices/data/2006/21/2006_26321.asp
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GTM Americas
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Canadian police have arrested and charged 17 teenagers and young men under Canada's anti-terrorism laws, now used for the second time. They are believed to be members of a domestic terrorist cell, planning a bombing campaign against Canadian targets. Royal Canadian Mounted Police Assistant Commissioner Mike McDonell explained, "This group took steps to acquire three tons of ammonium nitrate and other components necessary to create explosive devices.... To put this in context, the 1995 bombing of the Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City that killed 168 people took one ton of ammonium nitrate." The accused include: Fahim Ahmad, Zakaria Amara, Asad Ansari, Shareef Abdelhaleen, Qayyum Abdul Jamal, Mohammed Dirie, 22, Kingston, Ontario; Yasim Abdi Mohamed, Jahmaal James, Amin Mohamed Durrani, Steven Vikash Chand ("Abdul Shakur"), Ahmad Mustafa Ghany, Saad Khalid, and five young offenders.
Announcement:
http://www.rcmp.ca/news/n_0608_e.htm
Suspect Profiles:
http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_PrintFriendly&c=Article&cid=1149372195636&call_pageid=1149329604487
Press Reports:
http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_PrintFriendly&c=Article&cid=1149371435834
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20060603/arrests_reaction_060603/20060603?hub=Canada
http://www.caircan.ca/itn_more.php?id=2506_0_2_0_C
http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1149371435812&call_pageid=968332188492
http://www.macleans.ca/topstories/news/shownews.jsp?content=n060335A
http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/06/04/america/web.0604canada.php

Colombia has arrested eight soldiers involved with the May killing of ten undercover narcotics officers and a civilian. A preliminary investigation suggests that rather than an accident, the soldiers responsible for the shooting had connections with local drug traffickers. Fighting in the south continues to kill civilians caught up in clashed between irregular armed groups, and disproportionately affecting the indigenous populations.

During the UN Security Council's anti-terrorism committee meetings last week, Cuba raised the issue of "double standards" in the US campaign against terrorism, pointing to the US refusal to extradite international terrorist Luis Posada Carriles.
http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2006/sc8730.doc.htm

At the Guantanamo Bay detention center, 89 inmates are now on hunger strike. The action began in protest at their indefinite detention and its conditions last August, and has ebbed and flowed since then.
http://www.defenselink.mil/news/detainees.html
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/FC553127-BBF7-4120-BD15-E41499441102.htm

The US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced $1.7 billion in security grants. Although they are using a risk-based approach, monies for Washington DC, New York, and other major cities in the northeast was slashed in favor of mid-size cities in other areas. Grants to New Orleans were also cut in half. There has been widespread criticism of the awards process, including the DHS risk scorecard assertion that New York's Empire State Building and Brooklyn Bridge had "zero" ratings as national monuments or icons.
http://www.dhs.gov/dhspublic/interapp/press_release/press_release_0921.xml
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/05/31/AR2006053101364_pf.html
http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/editorials/articles/2006/06/04/homeland_security_pork/
http://www.nydailynews.com/front/story/423576p-357369c.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/04/nyregion/04newark.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/06/02/AR2006060201516.html
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/13106435/site/newsweek/
http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=topNews&storyID=2006-06-02T190101Z_01_N02231266_RTRUKOC_0_US-USA-CONGRESS-SECURITY.xml

The Minutemen volunteer militia, which has been patrolling the Mexican border, has started to build a fence on private land at an Arizona border area, to prevent illegal entry.
http://www.minutemanproject.com/
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GTM Asia Pacific
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The Non-Aligned Movement ministerial meeting issued the Putrajaya Declaration, including condemnation of all forms of terrorism, while reaffirming that "Terrorism should not be equated with the legitimate struggle of peoples under colonial or alien domination and foreign occupation for self-determination and national liberation". They also stated, "Terrorism cannot and should not be associated with any religion, nationality, civilization or ethnic group..."
http://webevents.bernama.com/events/nmm/index.php?type-full&id=445

Indonesian terrorist Mukhlas' unpublished manuscript describes his beliefs, hopes and dreams. They are summarized in this article:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/bin-laden-vision-terrorist-tells-of-bombers-dream/2006/06/04/1149359612981.html

Malaysia and the Philippines are coordinating an investigation into a Darul Islam Sabah cell. Malaysia has arrested 11 suspected militants, including two Filipinos.
http://www.sunstar.com.ph/static/net/2006/06/04/gov.t.checks.involvement.of.2.pinoys.in.foreign.terror.group.html

Philippines Defense Secretary Avelino Cruz told a regional meeting that the New People's Army (NPA) could be defeated within ten years by investment in security and social infrastructure.
http://www.philstar.com/philstar/NEWS_FLASH060420068093_3.htm

NPA rebels ambushed a police patrol on Wednesday, killing at least three soldiers.

Singapore's International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) hosted the fourth Asia Security Conference, focusing on anti-terrorism and maritime security cooperation in the region.
http://www.iiss.org/conferences/the-shangri-la-dialogue

Thai officials have agreed to examine some 300 unmarked graves in the southern province of Pattani, which may include suspected insurgents summarily executed by government death squads as well as murdered migrant workers and others. Meanwhile, three schools in Yala have remained closed following security threats against teachers and students.
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GTM Europe
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German police have detained three women being investigated for planning suicide missions in Iraq. Berlin police arrested one woman who may have been planning to take her child with her.
http://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/archiv/31.05.2006/2565298.asp (in German)

Greek Culture Minister Giorgos Voulgarakis was the target of a bomb that exploded when he would normally be passing on his way to work, but he had been delayed. Five cars were damaged but there were no casualties.

Ireland's Taoiseach has published the Fourth Interim Report by the Commission of Investigation into the Dublin and Monaghan Bombings 1974.
http://www.taoiseach.gov.ie/index.asp?locID=200&docID=2678

Italian President Giorgio Napolitano has pardoned Ovidio Bompressi. The Lotta Continua (Continuous Struggle) member was serving a 22-year prison sentence for the 1972 murder of Milan police commissioner Luigi Calabresi. Calabresi was implicated in the death of a young anarchist, who was either thrown or jumped from the fourth floor of police headquarters, inspiring Dario Fo's play, Accidental Death of an Anarchist. The conservative justice ministry had previously blocked efforts for a new hearing, but the new minister, Clemente Mastella has moved forward on this case, and also plans to seek a pardon for Lotta Continua leader Adriano Sofri.
http://ansa.it/main/notizie/awnplus/english/news/2006-05-31_1312782.html
http://web.amnesty.org/report2001/webeurcountries/ITALY?OpenDocument
http://web.amnesty.org/report2004/ita-summary-eng
http://www.echr.coe.int/Eng/Press/2003/june/DecisionSofri&Others.htm

Russia has promised political asylum to Igor Giorgadze , former head of state security for Georgia and current leader of the Justice party. He is believed responsible for organizing the 1995 assassination attempt against former president Shevardnadze. He is wanted in Georgia and on an Interpol red alert on terrorism charges.
http://www.kommersant.com/page.asp?idr=527&id=675898
http://www.regnum.ru/english/polit/645463.html
http://jamestown.org/edm/article.php?article_id=2371128

Spain's Supreme Court overturned a 15-year sentence against Imad Yarkas, finding insufficient evidence that he had helped plan the 9/11 attacks. However, the Syrian-born suspect's sentence to 12 years in prison for belonging to a terrorist group - al Qaeda- stands. Three other suspects, Driss Chebli, Sadik Merizak and Abdelaziz Benyaich - all Moroccans - were acquitted and released in April.

The Spanish Supreme Court has quashed an al-Qaeda suspect's conviction for helping plan the 11 September attacks.

Switzerland's Federal Police released their Domestic Security Report, which highlights terrorism, right- and left-extremism, hooliganism, human trafficking, proliferation, money laundering and organized crime as threats to security. The full report can be found in German here:
http://www.bap.admin.ch/
We have extracted their English summary here:
http://www.globalterrorismmonitor.com/2006/06/GTM0401.shtml

Turkish antiterrorism police have arrested nine people suspected of plotting to kill Prime Minister Erdogan.

British police raided a house in east London during an operating targeting a suspected chemical bomb. During the operation, a suspect was shot and injured. The circumstances are under investigation: this was the first shooting during an anti-terrorism operation since the innocent Brazilian Jean Charles De Menezes was killed.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/5040022.stm
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2006/06/04/nterr04.xml&sSheet=/news/2006/06/04/ixuknews.html
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,,1789965,00.html
http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/crime/article624665.ece
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2087-2209957,00.html
http://www.ipcc.gov.uk/news/pr020606_forest

A poll from the Telegraph newspaper finds that animal rights extremism has led to an upsurge in public support for animal testing
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2006/05/29/nanim29.xml

Yassin Felin Nassari was detained during a police operation into an alleged terrorist network planning attacks in Iraq. He has now been charged under the Terrorism Act of possessing a document likely to be of use to a terrorist. Dutch police are investigating his address in the Netherlands.

Aidan Grew and Noel Abernathy have been taken into custody in Northern Ireland where they face charges of membership in the Real IRA and cigarette smuggling of GBP1 million.

Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF) paramilitary Mark Haddock has been shot six times and critically injured. He was on bail in a case of attempted murder. His UVF colleagues are suspected in the attack. If this is the case, it will have an impact on political alliances between Northern Ireland's Ulster Unionists and the Progressive Unionists. There are also allegations that Haddock was also a police informer. http://www.guardian.co.uk/Northern_Ireland/Story/0,,1786798,00.html
http://sinnfein.ie/news/detail/14445
http://sinnfein.ie/news/detail/14447
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GTM Middle East
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Two Egyptian border guards were shot and killed by Israeli border guards. An investigation is under way, but the incident has become an issue in weekend meetings between Egyptian President Mubarak and Israeli Prime Minister Olmert.

In Gaza, Abdul Muti Orr of the Popular Resistance Committees was shot dead by Israeli forces that launched a tank barrage against him and two other men they suspected of planning an attack. Israeli special forces on Tuesday killed three members of Islamic Jihad, in their first ground incursion into Gaza since pulling out of the territory last year. Nine other people were injured.

There was serious fighting at the Israeli-Lebanese "Blue Line" last weekend, following Israeli jets bombing inside Lebanon in response to rocket attacks. The UN Interim Force in Lebanon brokered an end to the fighting.
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=1&categ_id=2&article_id=24832

In Iraq, at least 60 people were killed in bombings and other attacks on Monday. In Baghdad a roadside bombing killed a US army officer and an Iraqi interpreter; CBS news correspondent Kimberly Dozier was seriously injured, and her cameraman Paul Douglas and soundman James Brolan were killed. A car bomb targeting an Iraqi army patrol killed 12, most university students, and injured 24. Another bomb near a Sunni mosque killed five and injured seven. An explosion on a bus killed 14 and inured 17, while a minivan explosion killed seven. Two police officers were killed in an armed assault. Other violence around the country killed at least 18 people. Among attacks on Tuesday, the worst incident was a car bomb in a Baghdad marketplace that killed 25 and injured 65. In a Baghdad bakery, a car bomb killed nine and injured ten, a car bomb at a market in Hilla killed 12, and there were several other incidents. A mortar bomb attack in Baghdad on Wednesday killed nine and injured 17. A mortar bomb attack in Baghdad on Thursday killed at least nine and injured at least 40. A bomb killed two Iraqis and injured 21 people waiting to see if there was any work at a construction site. Another serious incident occurred on Friday when a pregnant Iraqi woman in labor and her cousin were shot dead by US forces as they hurried to the hospital. The driver, her brother, was not injured, and said he had not seen the warnings that the road was closed. A car bomb on Saturday at a market in Basra killed at least 28, while in Baquba an insurgent attack on a checkpoint killed seven police. In Baghdad, a Russian diplomat was ambushed and shot dead, and four others kidnapped. Today, gunmen in Diyala province attacked drivers and pulled children, students, the elderly and others from their cars to execute them. In Basra, clashes between Sunni worshippers and police killed nine.

Ahmed Hussein Dabash al-Batawi was captured by Iraqi forces on Monday. He was interrogated and confessed to beheading hundreds of Iraqis. The US military claims he was also a terrorist financier and facilitated attacks including the March 2004 bombing of Karbala, but this has not been independently verified.
http://www.defenselink.mil/news/May2006/20060531_5300.html

Iraq plans its own investigations into civilian deaths, including the 15 March incident near Ishaqi, which the US military recently found "in accordance with the rules of engagement governing our combat forces in Iraq".
http://www.defenselink.mil/news/Jun2006/20060603_5320.html

The US Defense Department provided its quarterly report to Congress on 30 May.
http://www.defenselink.mil/news/May2006/20060530_5294.html
http://www.boston.com/news/world/middleeast/articles/2006/05/31/insurgent_attacks_in_iraq_at_highest_level_in_2_years/

UAE diplomat Naji al-Nuaimi was freed in Baghdad after being held hostage for two weeks. UAE says he is in good health and no ransom was paid.

Muslims in Jordan have criticized the new anti-terrorism law as a step towards a police state that will limit reform and increase repression. The law will be referred to parliament in July.

Lebanese Hezbollah was told to disarm in an audio message posted online by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. The leader of Al Qaeda in Iraq claims that Hezbollah protects Israel against Sunni Arabs loyal to al Qaeda.

Syrian security forces clashed with suspected militants in the capital, Damascus, near the state radio and TV offices. Four gunmen and a security guard were killed, and four militants arrested.

In the West Bank, three Israeli operations on Tuesday killed two members of the Al Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades and one member of Islamic Jihad. On Friday, troops raided a Nablus hospital and arrested Jawad al-Kaabi, a member of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), who had been seriously injured in the stomach during clashes with Israeli forces on Wednesday.
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GTM South Asia
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In Afghanistan on Tuesday four ActionAid charity workers were killed in a drive-by shooting in the northern province of Jowzjan. The three women and one man were Afghans working to improve healthcare. In the southern province of Zabul, police came under attack by suspected Taleban, killing ten policemen. As police chief Ghulam Rhasoul arrived at the scene, a rocket-propelled grenade hit his vehicle. He was killed and three people travelling with him were injured. On Thursday, a suicide bomber's device detonated before he reached his target, a NATO base, killing only himself. Heavy fighting on Friday killed up to 35 Taleban militants, as US and Afghan troops recaptured the southern town of Chori. In Kandahar, Helmand, and Uruzgan provinces fighting on Saturday killed dozens of Taleban fighters, and injured a number of policemen. Early on Sunday a Taleban suicide bomber in Kandahar killed four and injured 13. Provincial governor Assadullah Khalid and a Canadian convoy were unharmed.

Abdur Rahman and Siddiqul Islam ("Bangla Bhai") of the Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) have been sentenced to death in Bangladesh court for a series of bombings last November in which two judges were killed.
http://www.thedailystar.net/2006/05/30/d6053001011.htm

In the eastern India state of Jharkhand, Maoist rebels fought police in a gun battle on Wednesday, leading to two arrests. On Thursday, suspected Maoist rebels are believed responsible for a landmine, triggered as police were attempting to defuse it. In this incident, 12 policemen died.

Indian police report they killed three suspected militants during a gun battle in Nagipur City, Maharashtra. The three men, dressed as police and carrying explosives in a lunchbox, grenades, and guns, were believed to be attempting an attack on the headquarters of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), a long-established Hindu nationalist organization. Although no organization has claimed responsibility
The All India Muslim Majlis-E-Mushawarat (AIMMM) issued a statement deploring the TSS attack and criticized the tendency to ascribe terrorist acts to "Islam".
http://www.hindu.com/2006/06/02/stories/2006060207801200.htm
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2006%5C06%5C02%5Cstory_2-6-2006_pg7_4
http://www.mushawarat.com/news.asp?id=299
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/1606284.cms

In Manipur, the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Tribunal has upheld the declaration of the People’s Liberation Army, Revolutionary People’s Front, United National Liberation Front, People’s Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak and its armed wing, the Red Army, Kangleipak Communist Party and its armed wing also called Red Army, Kanglei Yawol Kanba Lup and Manipur People’s Liberation Front as unlawful associations.
http://www.indianexpress.com/story/5659.html

In Indian-administered Kashmir, Islamic militants are suspected responsible for the third grenade attack on tourists in the past fortnight. This incident injured more than 30 tourists, two seriously. Police have expanded their investigation to take into account the possibility that these attacks may involve a larger conspiracy or business interests.

Pakistani police report the arrest of Habibullah, a key suspect in two major sectarian attacks against the Shia community in Balochistan in 2003-2004, in which more than 100 people were killed. He is believed associated with the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi.

A suicide car bomb in North Waziristan, Pakistan, killed the attacker and four soldiers.

Sri Lankan army officials claim that Tamil Tigers are responsible for an incident in which 14 Sinhalese construction workers were kidnapped, and 12 of them shot dead. The Tigers have denied involvement. Meanwhile, the EU has added the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam to their list of proscribed terrorist organizations.


2. Political Risk Monitor

For detailed analysis, background information and source documents available only to subscribers of the Political Risk Monitor, visit our online store:
TAMNI Publications

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PRM Africa
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"Chad: Back towards War?" is the issue reviewed in a new International Crisis Group Report:
"The internal situation in Chad is deteriorating rapidly, and spill-over from the Darfur crisis is only part of the reason. Sudan's deliberate use of Chadian warlords in its counter-insurgency strategy in Darfur and as a tool in its attempts to topple President Idriss Deby is just one aspect of Chad's woes. The ever deeper convergence of the two crises underlines the difficulty of settling one independently of the other. But Chad's troubles are equally the result of Deby's brittle semi-authoritarian regime, and the charade of the 3 May presidential election only made things worse. The April 2006 rebel offensive brought Chad to the brink of all-out civil war. The victory Deby ultimately achieved in pushing rebels back from the gates of the capital, N'Djamena, settled nothing militarily and highlighted the political fragility of the regime.
http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=4148&l=1

Democratic Republic of Congo has ordered the 32 foreigners arrested last week in connection with an alleged coup plot to leave the country, but no charges were placed against the men.

The UN Security Council has extended the UN mission to the Eritrea-Ethiopia border for four months. Given restrictions on their movement and no progress diplomatically, the mission has been reduced by about a third, to 2,300 soldiers.

As Malawi's President Bingu wa Mutharika completed his second year in office, a monthly report compiled by the Forum for Dialogue and Peace, finds that disagreements between the President and Vice President have made it impossible for the government to function effectively at all levels.
http://www.politicalriskmonitor.com/2006/06/PRM0401.shtml

Morocco has asked the UN to investigate attacks on camps housing refugees from the Western Sahara.

Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo has dismissed and replaced the chiefs of the defense and air force, and the national security advisor. No explanation for the shakeup was given.

Somalis came out in the thousands in a massive anti-US protest in Mogadishu focused on charges that US support of secular warlords - the Anti-Terrorism Alliance - is financing a genocide in the country.

The African Union and UN are discussing their options after the Abdulwahid faction of the Sudan Liberation Movement/Army (SLM/A) and the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) failed to meet a 31 May deadline to join the Darfur peace agreement, which was signed between the main SLM rebel group and the government last month. Despite missing the deadline, the two groups say they are prepared to move forward with an agreement. The AU is preparing an addendum to the earlier agreement.

In face of runaway inflation Zimbabwe has issued a $100,000 note, worth US $1 on the official exchange and 30 cents on the black market. Amnesty International has issued satellite photos showing the destruction caused under Operation Murambatsvina (remove the filth).
http://zimdaily.com/news2/article.php/20060531012051388
http://news.amnesty.org/index/ENGAFR460082006
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PRM Americas
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Bolivia's President Evo Morales said that intelligence has found a US plot to organize groups planning to assassinate him. The US denies the charge.
http://www.gmanews.tv/world.php?sec=6&id=7358

President Morales has also launched a program of agrarian reform that has given over 30,000 sq km to indigenous peasant communities. Landowners have walked away from talks with the government and warned they will form self-defense groups to protect their estates. Morales says that land stolen during the Spanish conquest will be returned to its original owners. The land distributed on Saturday was government-owned.
http://www.forbes.com/home/feeds/ap/2006/06/03/ap2791401.html
http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=worldNews&storyID=2006-06-03T161100Z_01_N03210253_RTRUKOC_0_US-BOLIVIA-LAND.xml
http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=33420

In Canada, the dispute between developers and the aboriginal occupiers in Caledonia remains unresolved. The judge responsible for a settlement has ordered the parties to meet in court and help develop a solution. Meanwhile, the new conservative government is considering scrapping the Kelowna accord that was designed to close the gap between the indigenous population and other Canadians.
http://www.cbc.ca/story/canada/national/2006/06/02/martin-kelowna.html
http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1149242520947&call_pageid=968332188492&col=968793972154&t=TS_Home

Chilean high school students have been on strike and protesting for the last three weeks. They took to the streets to demand education reforms including more financing, new curriculum, and no exam or bus fees. On Tuesday a rally of some 500,000 started peacefully until police intervened, using tear gas and water cannon to disperse the crowd. More than 700 students were arrested, and 14 people were injured. Talks with the government have resumed, and the protestors are considering new proposals presented by the government.
http://www.gobiernodechile.cl/noticias/detalle.asp (in Spanish)
http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=worldNews&storyID=2006-05-30T194643Z_01_N30197493_RTRUKOC_0_UK-CHILE-STUDENTS.xml
http://www.plenglish.com/article.asp?ID=%7BA2FB8817-63E7-4925-93D7-029DB004D2A5%7D&language=EN

Colombian President Alvaro Uribe has won a second term in office with 62 percent of the vote, in turnout of about 45 percent.
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N28299126.htm

Montserrat's general election failed to produce a clear winner but a new coalition has been formed, which includes the previous ruling party, the New People's Liberation Movement (NPLM), the Montserrat Democratic Party (MDP), and an independent candidate.
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N02262225.htm

Peru's President Alejandro Toledo has asked the Organization of American States (OAS) to intervene in what he characterizes as Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's interference in domestic politics. Chavez's vocal support for nationalist candidate Ollanta Humala and criticism of the current government and its candidate Alan Garcia has already led to both countries recalling their respective ambassadors.
http://www.oas.org/

Meanwhile, Peruvians are voting in a presidential run-off that is likely to be very close.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/5037428.stm
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/06/02/AR2006060201559.html

Trinidad and Tobago's Ministry of National Security report that kidnapping for ransom has fallen by 70 percent compared to last year.
http://www.trinidadexpress.com/index.pl/article_news?id=160958413

US-led coalition troops in Iraq will undergo ethical training for the next month, following multiple allegations of civilian massacres.

US Secretary of State Rice has overturned more than 25 years of US policy by offering direct talks with Iran. Read her announcement here, and refer to ETM/Weapons below for additional information and commentary:
http://www.politicalriskmonitor.com/2006/06/PRM0403.shtml
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PRM Asia Pacific
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The Non-Aligned Movement ministerial meeting issued the Putrajaya Declaration. It calls for emphasizing development of human capital, as well as improving north-south cooperation. The meeting supported Iran's use of peaceful nuclear energy and condemned Israel's brutal occupation of Palestinian lands.
http://webevents.bernama.com/events/nmm/index.php?type-full&id=445

Defense ministers attending the fourth Asia Security Conference called for greater regional cooperation, including humanitarian relief.
http://www.iiss.org/conferences/the-shangri-la-dialogue
http://english.ohmynews.com/ArticleView/article_view.asp?no=296584&rel_no=1

Australian Defense Minister Brendan Nelson warned against letting East Timor become a failed state.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,10117,19363535-2,00.html

East Timor's President Xanana Gusmao has assumed emergency powers in which he will assume direct control over the army and the police, and coordination of the Australian-led multinational peacekeeping force for the next 30 days. The current crisis began in February when more than 400 troops went on strike over pay and conditions. A month later, Prime Minister Mari Alkatiri dismissed 600 soldiers deemed absent without leave, nearly half of the country's 1400-man army. Those troops began violent demonstrations that by April had turned into riots. Since then at least 20 people have died, and tens of thousands have been displaced. Public areas have been burned down and looted, including parts of the government's criminal archive. Alkatiri has been blamed for dismissing the troops and failing to stop the violence, but the unpopular Prime Minister refuses to resign. Mr. Gusmao's announcement has helped to lower greatly the level of violence, although serious incidents continued throughout the week. Other measures taken involved the dismissal of the defense and interior ministers, and appointment of the Foreign Minister and Nobel Peace Prize winner Jose Ramos Horta as the head of security, charged with ending the fighting between the police and the army. Additional international assistance has also been provided.
http://www.timor-leste.gov.tl/
http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/why-xanana-gusmao-wept-in-alexander-downers-arms/2006/06/04/1149359612972.html
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/asia-pacific/5036070.stm
http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/timorese-leaders-pin-peace-hopes-on-summit/2006/06/02/1148956547909.html
http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/timor-ministers-bow-to-pressure/2006/06/01/1148956481444.html
http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/behind-rebel-officers-bravado-lies-tragic-story-of-a-tortured-nation/2006/05/31/1148956417414.html
http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/timor-mobs-wreak-havoc/2006/05/30/1148956346976.html
http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/hopes-rise-as-rebels-give-up/2006/05/29/1148754940134.html
http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/timor-burns-out-of-control/2006/05/28/1148754872623.html
http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/journalist-tells-of-home-torched-neighbour-killed/2006/05/29/1148754928683.html
https://terrorismcentral.com/Newsletters/2002/051902.html#FeatureArticle
http://www.unmiset.org/

In the Philippines, the government has claimed that the new security agreement with the US is an executive agreement that does not require Senate ratification. The Senate, however, believes the changes are significant enough in scope to be considered a new treaty.
http://www.sunstar.com.ph/static/man/2006/06/04/news/feud.brews.over.new.rp.pact.with.us.html

South Korea held local and regional elections that have resulted in a serious defeat for the ruling Uri party. The opposition Grand National Party has won 12 of 16 posts, and the Uri only one. Uri chairman Chung Dong-young has taken responsibility for the outcome and resigned his post.
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PRM Europe
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Czechs voted for representatives in the Chamber of Deputies. The election has deadlocked, with conservatives slightly ahead but unlikely to be able to form a government.

French police in the Paris suburb of Montfermeil clashed with about 100 youths, armed with stones, baseball bats, and petrol bombs. The worst rioting since last November was sparked by the arrest of a young man suspected of attacking a bus driver. By the end of the overnight clashes, three of the rioters were arrested, and seven policemen were injured.

The Irish government is scrambling to close a loophole in current abuse laws that allowed a serious offender to go free. Parliament has been recalled, and will act on the issue next week.
http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/front/2006/0531/398621716HM1RAPE.htmlhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/northern_ireland/5032482.stm

Germany will further increase security at the World Cup following stabbings last week that injured 36 people, and forced provision of prophylactic treatment against HIV infection.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000100&sid=afS0kTYH54ho&refer=germany

Lithuania's coalition government has collapsed following the withdrawal of the Labor Party and its five ministers in connection with an investigation into party financing. The Prime Minister has resigned, triggering the automatic dismissal of the cabinet.
http://www.baltictimes.com/news/articles/15533/
http://www.lrvk.lt/main_en.php
http://www.president.lt/en/


Montenegro held a special session of parliament in which it formally declared its independence from the union with Serbia.

The International Crisis Group issued a briefing on Montenegro's referendum:
"Montenegro's successful independence referendum should on balance increase stability in the western Balkans. Following the pro-independence victory, Podgorica still faces significant transition challenges, but none should affect regional stability, and all can be resolved as the country moves forward with the Stabilisation and Association process towards European Union membership. The EU and other international actors should do everything possible to speed its accession to international institutions. Most neighbouring countries are openly pleased with the outcome, which they feel marks the end of the Greater Serbian project. In Bosnia, however, there is loose talk about holding a similar referendum, but the international community must continue to make it absolutely clear that partition of Bosnia is not an option. Meanwhile, Belgrade is still in shock from the referendum loss and struggling to formulate rational policy.
http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?l=1&id=4144

Ukraine's prosecutor general confirms that test show the presence of dioxin in President Viktor Yushchenko's blood, showing that he was deliberately poisoned during the 2004 presidential campaign. A criminal investigation continues.
http://5tv.com.ua/eng/newsline/184/0/26308/

British civil servants have struck back against the government for blaming recent problems on immigration and foreign prisoners on them rather than on failed government policy.
https://www.fda.org.uk/Resource.phx/pubman/templates/18.htx?id=117 https://www.fda.org.uk/Resource.phx/pubman/templates/18.htx?id=116
http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/

The International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia has released its internal report on the death of former Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic. As previously found in independent investigations, this inquiry agreed that Milosevic died of a heart attack, not poisoning or any other form of murder.
http://www.un.org/icty/milosevic/parkerreport.pdf
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PRM Middle East
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Egyptian opposition leader Ayman Nour's offices were set fire, in a possible arson attack. Mr. Nour was in prison at the time.

The rift between Palestinian President Abbas and the Hamas-led government has continued to widen, and high tensions between the two sides continue to erupt in violence. However, Islamic jihad has indicated it could accept the National Conciliation Document proposed by Palestinians imprisoned in Israel. Here is the full text of that document:
http://www.politicalriskmonitor.com/2006/06/PRM0402.shtml

The Palestinian Authority's financial crisis remains unresolved, but some government workers have been paid for the first time in three months. The situation is so serious that the UN has made an unprecedented appeal for humanitarian funds to bypass sanctions against the government and restrictions on movement imposed by Israel. Palestinian armed groups threatened to target banks if they refused to transfer salaries.

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki has declared a state of emergency in Basra. During the next month he plans to use an "iron fist" to crush the sectarian clashes, anarchy, and factional fighting that has led to more than 100 deaths in the last month, previously seen as relatively secure. He has also criticized the US military for attacks against civilians, and plans independent investigations of such incidents.

The US Department of Defense issued its quarterly report to Congress on Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq. Released as Iraq announced it would conduct its own inquiries into civilian deaths, the report focuses on establishment of the new government and claims "continued momentum on the political, economic and security fronts and evidence that those attempting to derail it are failing".
http://www.dod.mil/home/features/Iraq_Reports/Index.html

Israeli Prime Minister Olmert plans to stage the West Bank withdrawal from certain settlements all at once, rather than drawing it out in stages. Security forces anticipate a violent reaction to the evacuation.

Lebanon's Parliament has rejected Syrian arrest warrants and subpoenas issued against their members Saad Hariri and Walid Jumblatt. The Arab Lawyers Union subsequently has convinced Syria to drop the charges.
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=1&categ_id=2&article_id=24862

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PRM South Asia
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The Afghan capital, Kabul, was the scene of the worst riots since the fall of the Taleban. The rioting was sparked when a large US cargo truck in a convoy had a mechanical failure and lost control, hitting at least 12 civilian cars. Thousands of anti-US protesters gathered at the scene and spread to the diplomatic quarter, strengthened by the US military use of live ammunition to help disperse the crowd. At least seven people died during the incidents, and more were injured. Parliament held a special session to reflect on the riots, and President Karzai has dismissed the Kabul police chief and more than 80 other officers. Most important, foreign troops have promised to behave less aggressively, including safer and more considerate driving.

In Bangladesh, widespread rioting damaged or destroyed dozens of garment factories as the workers strike for higher pay and safer working conditions. Despite a brief respite, police and security forces were unable to end the violence. Over the past week two people died, and more than 100 have been injured.

India's Supreme Court ordered striking doctors and medical students to return to work immediately, for the sake of the patients, or face prosecution. The court has asked the government to provide details of how the proposed affirmative action plan - to which the striking workers object - has been justified and would be implemented. Under the government plan nearly half of state-funded university places would be reserved for lower castes. Quotas in private sector jobs have been shelved for the time being.

In Indian-administered Kashmir, Jaish-e-Mohammad militants claim credit for a grenade attack in Srinigar that killed a policeman. Two suspected militants died in a gunbattle in Tral, a town south of Srinigar.

Maldives opposition leader Mohamed Nasheed, with the Maldivian Democratic Party, has attended a hearing on terrorism and sedition charges -- generally believed to be politically motivated.
http://www.minivannews.com/news/news.php?id=2150
http://www.haveeru.com.mv/?page=engdetails&id=7496

Nepal's parliament voted unanimously to end sole patrimony and give full citizenship to children born of Nepalese mothers.
http://www.kantipuronline.com/kolnews.php?&nid=75193

In southern Pakistan tribal violence between the Unar and Abro led to the death of television cameraman Munir Ahmed Sangi. The Committee to Protect Journalists has asked for an investigation following allegations that his death was deliberate rather than the result of crossfire.
http://www.cpj.org/news/2006/asia/pak30may06na.html
http://www.asiamedia.ucla.edu/article-southasia.asp?parentid=46977

Sri Lanka's Tamil Tigers have agreed to attend talks with the government and mediators in Oslo next month if their security can be guaranteed and their transportation arranged. Meanwhile, the recent surge of violence has led to a serious refugee crisis. More than 1200 people have fled to the Indian state of Tamil Nadu in the last few months, many travelling in small boats or with unscrupulous traffickers; practices that create a variety of serious threats to personal health and safety.


3. AML/CFT Monitor

The AML/CFT Monitor is a monthly 16-page print publication. News highlights from the past week are provided in this free email update, but detailed analysis, background information and source documents are only available to subscribers. Purchase a subscription at our online store:
TAMNI Publications

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AML/CFT Incidents/Cases
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UK anti-terrorism raids have uncovered a network that allegedly links the Sanabel Relief Agency to the financing of attacks in Iraq. The charity is designated in the US as a front for sending money to the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group.
http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/s/214/214832_police_smash_terror_plot.html
http://www.thisishertfordshire.co.uk/news/roundup/display.var.779612.0.raids_reveal_terrorism_links_to_charity.php
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2087-2209957,00.html
http://www.sanabel.org.uk/sanabelmain.html

Michael Hirsh and Jeffrey Bartholet describe US support for Somalia's militias. "Fighting in the Shadows" reports on a controversial program of supporting local warlords and perhaps creating an anti-US Islamic backlash. Xan Rice suggests these claims may obscure the commercial realities of the conflict. Meanwhile, a massive anti-US protest in Mogadishu focused on charges that US support of secular warlords is financing a genocide in the country.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/13008291/
http://www.guardian.co.uk/elsewhere/journalist/story/0,,1786644,00.html
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/5042672.stm

The Bank of England has introduced financial sanctions against persons designated by the UN as impeding the peace process in Sudan.
http://www.amlcftmonitor.com/2006/06/AML0402.shtml

US President Bush has designated three individuals and two entities as Foreign Narcotics Kingpins. Those designated are: Dawood Ibrahim (India); Fahd Jamil Georges (Brazil); Ali Naway (Iran); Dawood Ibrahim Organization (India/Pakistan/UAE); and Amezcua Contreras Organization (Mexico).
http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2006/06/20060601-9.html

Israel accused the Birmingham, England charity Islamic Relief of being a Hamas front organization. Islamic Relief is a major charity that receives millions in funding from the British government. This allegation follows the detention, questioning, release, and deportation of a charity worker. Islamic Relief explained that it " does not transfer funds to any organisation in the Palestinian Territories. All its financial transactions are externally audited and also go through rigorous checks both internally and externally by the UK Charities Commission and agencies such as the European Commission who fund Islamic Relief’s work in the Palestinian Territories".
http://www.islamic-relief.com/submenu/About%20Us/visits/article.asp?id=103
http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,,1786266,00.html
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/fromthefield/218894/114900544628.htm
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AML/CFT Legislation and Regulation
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The UN Security Council's anti-terrorism committees met last week, focusing on cooperation, consultation, and the balance between human rights and security. Many participants expressed concern over the Consolidated List of al Qaeda and Taleban, including the need for an independent review mechanism to oversee listing and delisting, ensure transparency, and the need to address the lack of adequate identifiers.
http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2006/sc8730.doc.htm

The EU has added the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), "Tamil Tigers", to the list of banned terrorist groups.

The US Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FINCen) issued supplementary guidance for insurance companies to implement an AML program and provide suspicious activity reports. For easy reference, the original guidance, issued on 31 October 2005, and the supplement issued 31 May 2006, are combined here:
http://www.amlcftmonitor.com/2006/06/AML0401.shtml

Two recent reports evaluate FINCen's analytical and reporting systems. Contact us to purchase our new Special Report, "It's All In The Data", which summarizes those findings as well as comparative data about similar systems.

The China Anti-money Laundering Monitoring and Analysis Center (CAMLMAC)  and Indonesia's Financial Transaction Reports Analysis Center (PPATK)  have signed an AML cooperation agreement under which they will exchange financial intelligence and assist each other with training and technology development.
http://www.thejakartapost.com/detailbusiness.asp?fileid=20060530.M01

Japan plans to introduce strengthened AML legislation to the Diet in 2007.
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/20060529TDY01001.htm
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AML/CFT Modalities
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Hedge fund vulnerability to money laundering, fraud and terrorist financing is discussed here:
http://www.caycompass.com/cgi-bin/CFPnews.cgi?ID=1013665

This 2-part story from Kenya's Daily Nation newspaper describes their investigation into the illegal lumber trade, which is facilitated by chiefs, district officers, forest officers and other senior government officials.
http://www.nationmedia.com/dailynation/nmgcontententry.asp?category_id=39&newsid=74047
http://www.nationmedia.com/dailynation/nmgcontententry.asp?category_id=39&newsid=74117

The American Forest and Paper Association reports that as much as 10 percent of global timber production could be illegal, depressing the prices of legal products by as much as 16 percent.
http://www.afandpa.org/Template.cfm?Section=International2&template=/TaggedPage/TaggedPageDisplay.cfm&TPLID=6&OriginalID=294&InterestCategoryID=404&ExpList=294
http://www.ustr.gov/assets/Trade_Sectors/Environment/asset_upload_file749_9264.pdf


4. Emerging Threat Monitor

For detailed analysis, background information and source documents consider subscribing. Subscriptions to Emerging Threat Monitor can be purchased at our online store:
TAMNI Publications

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ETM Corruption and Transnational Crime
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41 Bulgarians have been arrested in Austria, Bulgaria, Germany and Italy. The Italian-led investigation has broken up a continent-wide child trafficking gang. The children, aged between eight and 13, were sold or rented to the gang by their parents then trained for petty crime that garnered EU 1,000 per child per day. This and other instances of serious organized crime are having an adverse effect on Bulgaria's efforts to join the EU.
http://www.novinite.com/view_news.php?id=64192
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/5026920.stm

Kim Woo-choong has been jailed for ten years and ordered to forfeit 21.4 trillion won ($22 billion). The South Korean court held the founder of the failed Daewoo Group guilty of charges including embezzlement and accounting fraud, and took into account the impact of the fraud on the country's overall economy.

In South Africa, corruption under apartheid involved officials at the highest levels. This is the key finding of Hennie van Vuuren's investigation into the unsolved 1977 murder of member of parliament Robert Smit and his wife, perhaps to prevent his revealing a financial scandal involving then President Nico Diederichs. The "Apartheid Grand Corruption Report" is being reviewed to see if criminal actions can be taken.
http://www.issafrica.org/dynamic/administration/file_manager/file_links/APARTHEIDGRANDC2.PDF?link_id=&slink_id=2747&link_type=&slink_type=13&tmpl_id=3
http://www.issafrica.org/index.php?link_id=&slink_id=2754&link_type=&slink_type=12&tmpl_id=3

Russian President Putin has dismissed public prosecutor Vladimir Ustinov, who was leading the anti-corruption drive Putin announced in his state of the nation address. Explanations for his removal have included internal politics, a power struggle, ineffectiveness, personal corruption, ill health, etc.
http://www.mosnews.com/news/2006/06/02/ustinovresigned.shtml
http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20060602/48977473.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000085&sid=aPNzoaTGi1d4

Kenya's chapter of Transparency International has named the country's worst bribe-takers, leading with the police and government. Bribery had fallen in 2003 and 2004 but has now risen to the same level it was when President Kibaki took office three years ago, but with higher sums involved.
http://www.nationmedia.com/dailynation/nmgcontententry.asp?category_id=1&newsid=74080

An investigation by Kenya's Daily Nation newspaper has found the government officials are facilitating the illegal lumber trade.
http://www.nationmedia.com/dailynation/nmgcontententry.asp?category_id=39&newsid=74047
http://www.nationmedia.com/dailynation/nmgcontententry.asp?category_id=39&newsid=74117

The Standard, another Kenyan newspaper, reveals how members of parliament spend their salaries:
http://www.eastandard.net/hm_news/news.php?articleid=1143953196
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ETM Economies and Financial Systems
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The World Bank released "Global Development Finance 2006: The Development Potential of Surging Capital Flows". The new report sites a record high in net private capital flows to developing countries, which reached $491 billion in 2005. This trend has been driven by increased credit, and global liquidity, and record levels of bank lending and bond issuance. It is underpinned by greater confidence in several developing countries. Last year low- and middle-income countries increased GDP by 6.4 percent. Developed countries achieved less than half of this growth in GDP, at 2.8 percent.
http://www.worldbank.org/gdf2006

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Executive Board concluded its first review of the low-income country debt sustainability framework for low-income countries (DSF), which tries to ensure that external financing does not lead to unsustainable debt burdens. In general, they found the framework appropriate, but noted dependencies on country-specific policies, institutions, risks and capacities, that require a balanced and calibrated approach to risk assessment.
http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pn/2006/pn0661.htm

The Investment Climate Facility (ICF) was launched last week. The unique fund is designed to drive investment in Africa, removing real and perceived obstacles to domestic and foreign investment, and preparing and promoting the continent as an investment destination.
http://www.emergingthreatmonitor.com/2006/06/ETM0403.shtml

India's Central Statistical Organization reports annual growth of 9.3 percent from January-March. This rapid growth has raised fears of increasing interest rates, which has fueled a falling stock market.
http://mospi.nic.in/
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=aJ35glab3GkE&refer=home
http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/05/31/business/rupee.php

Vietnam has agreed to reduce tariffs and list restrictions on most US imports, paving the way for it to join the World Trade Organization. The US Congress must first ratify the agreements.
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ETM Environment and Climate Change
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The Arctic Coring Expedition has analyzed sediment core from the Arctic seabed to reveal that 55 million years ago the North Pole was a tropical environment.
http://www.rcom.marum.de/English/Arctic_Coring_Expedition_2004.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/01/science/earth/01climate.html?ex=1149480000&en=cc8161ed3ca27243&ei=5087%0A
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2006-05/iodp-osc052606.php

The European Commission has launched the "You Control Climate Change" campaign, providing tips to consumers to help convince people to reduce their carbon dioxide emissions and play an active and effective role in affecting climate change.
http://www.climatechange.eu.com/
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ETM Human Rights
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In a 5-4 vote, the US Supreme Court has ruled that government employees are not protected under First Amendment freedom of speech provisions when blowing the whistle in the course of their duties. The decision could discourage whistleblowers.
http://www.supremecourtus.gov/opinions/05pdf/04-473.pdf
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/05/30/AR2006053000463.html
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/politics/cal/la-me-whistleblower1jun01,1,5493947.story
http://www.firstamendmentcenter.org/news.aspx?id=16965

Amnesty International UK has launched a campaign against internet repression:
http://www.irrepressible.info

A US court in California has ruled that online journalists have the same rights as traditional reporters. Read the court decision here:
http://www.emergingthreatmonitor.com/2006/06/ETM0401.shtml
Get information on the court case here:
http://blogs.zdnet.com/Apple/?p=170
http://www.eff.org/Censorship/Apple_v_Does/

The International Day of Peacekeepers was observed on 1 June.
http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=18709
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ETM Infectious Diseases
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The World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) has concluded a 2-day meeting on avian influenza. OIE coordinator Dr Christianne Bruschke said that Africa, China and Indonesia are under-reporting incidences, for reasons that include logistical issues, inadequate compensation, and other problems. At the conclusion of the meeting, attendees had confirmed that "Migrating wild birds have played and will likely continue to play a role in transporting highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus, or bird flu, over long distances". However, the legal and illegal poultry trade is responsible for most of the spread of the disease.
http://www.oie.int/eng/press/en_060602.htm
http://www.who.int/csr/don/en/

The World Health Assembly has agreed to the immediate but voluntary implementation of the 2005 International Health Regulations related to influenza.

On June 5, 1981, the Center for Disease Control's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report published case reports of five healthy young men who died of Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia and other diseases associated with severely compromised immune systems. This was the first report on what has come to be known as Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome, or AIDS. Read the MMWR report here:
http://www.emergingthreatmonitor.com/2006/06/ETM0402.shtml

Refer to CIM below for coverage of public health and policy issues in the new UNAIDS report, as well as links to prior Newsletter coverage, and refer to Recommended Reading for additional resources.
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ETM Legal Systems
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Responding to an Observer investigation that found convictions for the most serious crimes had fallen to an historically low rate below ten percent under the Labor government, Attorney General Lord Goldsmith acknowledged it was a problem, but one that the government is tackling. Home Secretary John Reid hit back after the Lord Chief Justice of England and Wales, Lord Phillips, said that too many minor offenders are being imprisoned.
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,,1784623,00.html
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/5025924.stm
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2006/05/31/nreid31.xml
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ETM Populations
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Japan's fertility rate has fallen to a record low of 1.25 in 2005, down from 1.29 the year before. The falling population threatens to have a major impact on the economy and society. The accelerated downward trend has led the government to consider widespread actions to reverse the trend.
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/20060603TDY03005.htm
http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=healthNews&storyID=2006-06-01T111328Z_01_SP297885_RTRIDST_0_HEALTH-JAPAN-POPULATION-DC.XML

Australia's efforts to encourage higher levels of childbirth have borne fruit. Last year, there were 261,400 births, the highest level since 1992. In addition to Treasurer Peter Costello encouraging families to have "one for mum, one for dad and one for the country", the government introduced tax benefits and other incentive payments.
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/mf/3101.0?OpenDocument
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/the-new-generation-of-baby-boomers/2006/06/02/1148956544271.html
http://www.heraldsun.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5478,19344908%255E2862,00.html

Spain's Canary Islands have seen a five-fold increase in the number of African migrants compared to last year. Austria, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands and Portugal and the UK have agreed to provide additional boats, helicopters, and planes to assist Spain in ending this dangerous practice, in which many of the migrants die during the perilous crossing. Spain has suspended repatriation of Senegalese migrants following complaints of mistreatment.

In 2000, Niger had established a mandatory retirement age of 55. Six years later the retirement age has been raised to 60 (pending parliamentary approval). The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank support this measure as a way to stop the dramatic loss of experienced workers. Average life expectancy is 44 years.
http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/AFRICAEXT/NIGEREXTN/0,,menuPK:382456~pagePK:141159~piPK:141110~theSitePK:382450,00.html
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/5029060.stm
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ETM Social Responsibility
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A survey by the National Consumers League and Fleishman-Hillard finds that more than three-quarters of American consumers say that for a corporation to be socially responsible means putting their employees first. Only about a fifth of those surveyed believe that US corporations perform well in acting socially responsible, and most see little or no progress.
http://www.nclnet.org/news/2006/csr_05312006.htm

Exxon Mobil shareholders approved a resolution that directors should be chosen by majority vote, defying the company's board and demonstrating investor anger over the $400 million retirement package for the former chairman and CEO, Lee Raymond.
http://money.cnn.com/2006/05/31/news/companies/exxon_shareholder_meeting/
http://www.forbes.com/business/energy/feeds/ap/2006/05/31/ap2785251.html
http://www.wnct.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=WNCT/MGArticle/NCT_BasicArticle&c=MGArticle&cid=1137836435358
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/benchconference/2006/06/exxon_mobil_should_pay_up_and.html
http://rdu.news14.com/content/business/?AC=&ArID=85228&SecID=83
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?p=irol-eventDetails&c=115024&eventID=1317134
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ETM Technology
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The European Medicines Agency (EMEA) has decided to issue a license for a drug, ATryn, produced from the milk of transgenicly altered goats that carried a human gene involved in blood clotting. This is the first product of transgenic biotechnology to be approved for human use.
http://www.emea.eu.int/pdfs/general/direct/pr/20316306en.pdf
http://www.transgenics.com/news.html
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ETM Weapons (WMD, Proliferation)
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In a major reversal of US policy towards Iran that has lasted for more than a quarter century, US Secretary of State Rice has offered direct talks with Iran. It has a condition - that Iran suspends uranium enrichment - but has opened a door that was long closed. Here is her announcement and links to additional information and commentary:
http://www.politicalriskmonitor.com/2006/06/PRM0403.shtml
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5045214.stm
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/world/story/0,,1789870,00.html
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2089-2209871,00.html
http://www.irna.ir/en/news/view/menu-236/0606018487194337.htm
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/story/0,,1787075,00.html
)
http://www.iranian.ws/iran_news/publish/article_15949.shtml
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml;jsessionid=SLKVKOVZS1QVNQFIQMFSFF4AVCBQ0IV0?xml=/news/2006/06/01/uiran.xml
)
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/americas/article622733.ece)

Regarding North Korea, the US and Japan have reported that it is preparing for a new missile test, while North Korea has called on the US to follow through its prior commitment to talk by sending the chief negotiator to Pyongyang.

The Weapons of Mass Destruction Commission (WMDC) was launched by the Swedish government in Stockholm in December 2003 to respond to the profoundly worrying developments in international security, and to investigate ways to reduce the dangers from nuclear, biological, chemical and radiological weapons. The Commission, chaired by Dr Hans Blix, presented their report "Weapons of Terror" to the UN. The report includes 60 proposals to end the use and proliferation of WMD.  
http://www.wmdcommission.org/
http://www.un.org/apps/sg/sgstats.asp?nid=2064

The UN Security Council' extended to 27 April 2008 the mandate of the committee established under resolution 1540 on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, recognizing the need for a sustained effort. All three UN anti-terrorism committees met last week, focusing on cooperation, consultation, and the balance between human rights and security. During discussion of nuclear proliferation, there were heated exchanges between Israel, Iran, and Syria.
http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2006/sc8730.doc.htm

Historical documents show that the Japanese Army destroyed evidence of biological weapons development in China when it surrendered in 1945,
http://english.eastday.com/eastday/englishedition/world/userobject1ai2074167.html

The Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) held regional meetings for Eastern Europe as well as for Latin America and the Caribbean.
http://www.opcw.org/pressreleases/2006/PR33_2006.html
http://www.opcw.org/pressreleases/2006/PR32_2006.html


5. Critical Infrastructure Monitor

Critical Infrastructure Monitor gives you the background and analysis missing from these news briefings. Subscriptions can be purchased from our online store:
TAMNI Publications

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CIM Banking and Finance
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Britain's Financial Services Authority (FSA) issued a consultation paper on new Integrated Regulatory Reporting (IRR) requirements for banks, building societies and investment firms, to help FSA use regulatory reporting more effectively monitor and mitigate risks to the FSA's statutory objectives.
http://www.criticalinfrastructuremonitor.com/2006/06/CIM0402.shtml

South Korea's Fair Trade Commission has begun an investigation into possible collusion in setting consumer fees at 11 banks.
banks, building societies and investment firms

The US Government Accountability Office (GAO) released "OCC Preemption Rules: OCC Should Further Clarify the Applicability of State Consumer Protection Laws to National Banks". This report considers the federal banking regulator, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), and the applicability of state laws to national banks, and related issues.
http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-06-387

Standard and Poor's Ratings Services has updated and enhanced their enterprise risk management criteria for insurers
http://www.riskandinsurance.com/060501_specreport_1.asp
http://www.canadianunderwriter.ca/issues/ISArticle.asp?id=56268&issue=05232006
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CIM Chemical
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Investigations are under way following the explosion of a Terra Nitrogen (UK) Ltd. ammonia plant involving a fire with mixed gases including ammonia, hydrogen, and nitrogen. Two people were treated for minor injuries.
http://www.terranitrogen.co.uk/billingham_incident__statement.htm
http://www.hse.gov.uk/news/billingham/index.htm
http://www.fwi.co.uk/Articles/2006/06/01/95034/Terra+explosion+won%E2%80%99t+affect+nitrogen+supplies.html
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/tees/5040202.stm
http://www.24dash.com/content/news/viewNews.php?navID=7&newsID=6375
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CIM Cybersecurity
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The US Veteran's Administration announced yesterday that the stolen computer containing personal information on up to 26.5 million veterans also contains information on up to 20,000 active duty National Guard and Reserve personnel and up to 30,000 active Navy personnel.
http://www1.va.gov/opa/pressrel/pressrelease.cfm?id=1131

The epidemic in compromising personal data by stealing a machine continued apace. A Hummingbird employee lost a computer containing personal data of the Texas Guaranteed Student Loan Corporation. An Electronic Data Systems employee lost a laptop containing personal data of former and retired employees of Royal Ahold NV subsidiaries. Another stolen laptop case, this involving an Ernst and Young employee's machine that contained confidential data on 243,000 hotels.com customers, is reported by The Register:
http://www.hummingbird.com/press/2006/texas_guaranteed.html?cks=y
http://www.tgslc.org/newsroom/news/2006/press060530.cfm
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/06/02/AR2006060201629.html
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2006/06/01/ey_hotels_laptop/

Sacred Heart University reports a breach of their computer system, and have notified those potentially affected in a letter, sent by mail.
http://www.sacredheart.edu/pages/13456_computer_security_alert.cfm

Symantec has issued a patch to fix a serious vulnerability in its corporate antivirus software.
http://www.symantec.com/avcenter/security/Content/2006.05.25.html

The Archiveus virus is the latest example of a Trojan that tries to hold data for ransom, however the password to unlock the hijacked files is inside the virus code. Also note the story of a victim of this virus.
http://www.sarc.com/avcenter/venc/data/trojan.archiveus.html
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/manchester/5034384.stm

Kaspersky Labs reports on a proof-of-concept macro virus that for the first time would attack StarOffice or OpenOffice documents.
http://www.viruslist.com/en/weblog
http://www.securityfocus.com/brief/218

Los Angeles Times reporter Lynn Doan reports that " Computer systems at universities across the nation are becoming favorite targets of hackers, and rising numbers of security breaches have exposed the personal information of thousands of students, alumni, employees and even college applicants."
http://email.latimes.com/cgi-bin1/DM/y/e3Nu0IwG8z0G2B0HZcy0ER

Swedish police raided locations connected to an illegal file-sharing system. In return, a denial of service attack was launched against the national police website. Both The Pirate Bay and the police are back online.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/5045974.stm

The Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA) has launched the SpamMATTERS button that with one mouse click can simultaneously delete spam and report it to ACMA.
http://www.acma.gov.au/ACMAINTER.65640:STANDARD:468552120:pc=PC_100598

The European Commission reports that "Businesses, individuals and public administrations in Europe still underestimate the risks of insufficiently protecting networks and information. Security presently represents only around 5-13 percent of IT expenditure, which is alarmingly low". The Commission has adopted a new IT Security Strategy for Europe, intended to lead to more trustworthy, secure and reliable information and communication technologies.
http://ec.europa.eu/information_society/doc/com2006251.pdf
http://www.enisa.eu.int/

The European Data Protection Supervisor (EDPS) reviewed the draft Framework Decision on Member States' organisation and exchange of information in criminal records. Although satisfied with the general approach EDPS suggested:
"* The appropriate solution with a central authority, which ensures clear responsibilities in terms of handling the information as well as in terms of supervision by the national data protection authority.
* The recommendation to make it even more clear that the convicting Member State shall be considered as the "owner" of the personal data and that the Member State of the convicted person stores the data on the former's behalf.
* That more precise criteria for transferring personal information to a third Member State for other purposes than criminal proceedings are developed.
* That a workable language regime is needed, and that a standardised format for exchange of information is developed and implemented within less than a year."
http://www.europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=EDPS/06/7&format=HTML&aged=0&language=EN&guiLanguage=en

The US Department of Homeland Security's Emerging Applications and Technology subcommittee has advised that Remove Frequency Identification Devices (RFID) is useful for some tasks but undesirable for applications associated with people. They recommend alternatives less open to privacy abuses.
http://www.dhs.gov/dhspublic/interapp/editorial/editorial_0512.xml
http://www.rfidjournal.com/article/articleview/2360/

Amnesty International UK has launched a campaign against internet repression:
http://www.irrepressible.info
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CIM Energy
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Ecuador and Venezuela have signed cooperation agreements related to oil refining and supply, the first in what is expected to be a series of collaborations in many areas.
http://www.presidencia.gov.ec/noticias.asp?noid=6701 (in Spanish)
http://www.plenglish.com/article.asp?ID=%7B44C4F9DC-D20C-4F61-8743-0EDECB1BA397%7D)&language=EN
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CIM Information Technology
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The Danish parliament has agreed to begin issuing its electronic documents in open standard formats, replacing the requirement that people need Microsoft Word or Excel to read the material they produce.
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CIM Nuclear Reactors, Materials, and Waste
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Ireland is concerned over pollution from the UK nuclear reprocessing plant in Sellafield. In 2001 they claimed pollution from the site broke the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. The European Commission appealed to the European Court of Justice, which found that the case should be settled within the EU.
http://www.curia.eu.int/en/actu/communiques/cp06/aff/cp060045en.pdf

The UN Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation  (UNSCEAR) is celebrating its 50th anniversary. Formed in the aftermath of the US atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and the proliferation of atmospheric nuclear weapons tests, the organization was established to assess the lingering, deadly impact of nuclear weapons. It's remit expanded to include gauging effects of radiation from all medical, natural or industrial sources. UNSCEAR is the world authority on ionizing radiation and led efforts to establish international radiation protection standards.
http://www.unscear.org/unscear/index.html
http://www.unscear.org/docs/UNIS_PressRelease_BLIX_2006-05-31.pdf
http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs//2006/sgsm10486.doc.htm

Russia plans to have repatriated all highly enriched uranium from research reactors in the former Soviet states by 2013.
http://www.mosnews.com/news/2006/05/30/russiaremoveenrichuranium.shtml
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CIM Public Health and Healthcare
--------------------------------------------------
On June 5, 1981, the Center for Disease Control's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report published case reports of five healthy young men who died of Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia and other diseases associated with severely compromised immune systems. This was the first report on what has come to be known as Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome, or AIDS. Read the MMWR report here:
http://www.emergingthreatmonitor.com/2006/06/ETM0402.shtml

This week marks 25 years since the uncovering pandemic was first indicated. For the first time, it appears that new infections may have peaked. UNAIDS Report on the global AIDS epidemic
http://www.unaids.org/en/HIV_data/2006GlobalReport/

The World Health Organization warns of serious complications during childbirth associated with the practice of female genital mutilation (FGM). These include an increase in caesarean sections as high as 30 percent, postpartum hemorrhage a 70 percent increase, a 66 percent increase in the need to resuscitate babies; and other complications that significantly increase the infant mortality rate.
http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2006/pr30/en/index.html

World No Tobacco Day was marked on 31 May. The World Health Organization, which manages the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, calls for broad and immediate regulation of the leading preventable cause of death around the world: use of tobacco products. The focus of this year's campaign is "Tobacco - deadly in any disguise". It calls for regulation of smokeless tobacco products and any other product containing tobacco.
http://www.wntd.com/about_index.cfm
http://www.who.int/tobacco/framework/en/
http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2006/pr28/en/index.html
"

A Eurobarometer survey released to mark World No Tobacco Day found:
* The percentage of people smoking in the EU was 33 percent in 2002, and 27 percent in 2005.
* The number of people saying they have never smoked has risen from 42 percent to 47 percent since 2002. 57 percent of women have never smoked, compared to 35 percent of men.
*  The number of people who have given up smoking has risen from 19 percent to 22 percent.
* Women and young people smoke the least. The drop in smoking is most marked among these groups too, although there are considerable variations among Member States.
*  Tobacco consumption varies considerably from one Member State to another.
*  75 percent of people are aware that tobacco smoke can be dangerous for non-smokers.
* Young people are the most bothered by smoke, due to its unpleasant aspects, such as smell.
*  56 percent of people are in favour of a smoking ban in restaurants.
* Support for smoking restrictions is highest in the smoke-free Member States – suggesting that approval for smoke-free policies tends to increase following their implementation.
http://europa.eu.int/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=IP/06/694&format=HTML&aged=0&language=EN&guiLanguage=en

Nepal's Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala used the occasion to quit smoking.
http://www.kantipuronline.com/kolnews.php?&nid=75284

Kenya's ban on smoking in public places came into force on Monday, but was then suspended for 30 days to consider the health minister's authority to issue the rule and to provide tobacco companies enough time to print health warnings on cigarette packages..
http://allafrica.com/stories/200605220630.html
http://www.nationmedia.com/dailynation/nmgcontententry.asp?category_id=1&newsid=74216
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/5034108.stm
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CIM Telecommunications
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A US court in California has ruled that online journalists have the same rights as traditional reporters. Telecommunications companies may find the analysis of the Electronic Communications Privacy Act and the analysis used regarding its applicability, the interests of service providers, and safe harbor provisions. Read the court decision here:
http://www.emergingthreatmonitor.com/2006/06/ETM0401.shtml
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CIM Transportation
--------------------------------------------------
The European Court of Justice has ruled that an agreement to require airlines to transfer airline passenger data to US authorities used an inappropriate legal basis, and a different approach would have to be found. Current EU data protection law covers commercial use of data but not security use, and US data protection cannot be assured.
http://curia.eu.int/jurisp/cgi-bin/form.pl?lang=EN&Submit=Rechercher$docrequire=alldocs&numaff=C-318/04&datefs=&datefe=&nomusuel=&domaine=&mots=&resmax=100
http://ec.europa.eu/comm/external_relations/us/intro/pnr.htm

During the fourth Asia Security Conference, India offered to help safeguard the Malacca Straits. Both this and an earlier offer from the US have raised concerns that the larger armed forces could dominate the region.
http://www.philstar.com/philstar/NEWS_FLASH060420068089_3.htm
http://www.iiss.org/conferences/the-shangri-la-dialogue

The Philippines Department of Foreign Affairs is concerned about the fate of 20 Filipino sailors being held hostage by Somali pirates. The sailors are short of food and water.
http://www.sunstar.com.ph/static/net/2006/06/04/20.pinoy.captives.in.somalia.running.out.of.food.html

Britain's Minister for Roads, Stephen Ladyman, announced theft-resistant number plates that deter car theft.
http://www.criticalinfrastructuremonitor.com/2006/06/CIM0401.shtml

The European Commission has adopted a proposed regulation introducing biometrics in the Visa Information System.
http://www.europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=IP/06/717&format=HTML&aged=0&language=EN&guiLanguage=en
http://www.europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=MEMO/06/227&format=HTML&aged=0&language=EN&guiLanguage=en

The US Government Accountability Office (GAO) issued "Observations on Efforts to Implement the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative on the U.S. Border with Canada".
http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-06-741R
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CIM Water
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China's water supplies are threatened by a booming economy, drought, and pollution.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/world/the-yangtze-rivers-journey-from-heaven-to-hell/2006/06/02/1148956544068.html
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4754519.stm
http://www.china.org.cn/english/environment/97887.htm


6. Disaster Reduction Monitor

News highlights from the past week are provided in this free email update, but detailed analysis, background information and source documents are only available to subscribers. Disaster Reduction Monitor subscriptions and other titles can be purchased here:
TAMNI Publications

--------------------------------------------------
DRM Incidents
--------------------------------------------------
More than 6,200 people have now been confirmed dead from the 27 May earthquake on the Indonesian island of Java. In addition, some 30,000 people have been injured, and hundreds of thousands of people displaced. The casualty numbers are likely to continue to rise as rescue efforts and damage assessments continue, particularly in remote areas.

As of 23 May Angola has reported 38,897 cases and 1,437 deaths from the cholera epidemic.
http://www.who.int/csr/don/2006_05_25/en/index.html
http://www.msf.org/

A cholera outbreak in southern Sudan has infected 14,000 people and killed 424 since January. It has spread to seven states in Sudan, and is approaching both Kenya and Uganda.
http://www.msf.org/

The death toll from last week's gas tanker explosion in Benin has climbed to 75. About 100 small children have been orphaned. 24 people are still being treated, but the hospital has no facilities for dealing with serious burn injuries.
http://www.disasterreductionmonitor.com/2006/06/DRM0402.shtml

In a Turkish coal mine, a gas explosion caused a shaft to collapse, killing at least 17.

An accident in India has led to significant political repercussions. On 30 May a group of students and teachers from a private primary school asked Naval Marine Commandos deployed at Wular Lake in Kashmir for a boat ride. They crowded in to an assault boat equipped to handle two crew and 16 combat troops. After about 50 meters, the boat capsized. One teacher and 21 children were killed. One teacher and 11 children were rescued. Inquiries into the incident are underway. Meanwhile, protests that followed the incident grew violent, and led to the deaths of two protesters.  
c.in/release/release.asp?relid=18134
http://www.greaterkashmir.com/full_story.asp?Date=1_6_2006&ItemID=43&cat=1
http://www.greaterkashmir.com/full_story.asp?Date=1_6_2006&ItemID=41&cat=1

Floods in Gujarat, India, have killed 12 people in three days.
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DRM Response and Recovery
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The UN has begun a 6-month relief operation to address the short-term needs of the Java earthquake survivors. Organizations accepting relief contributions include:
Care
http://www.care.org/
Caritas
http://www.caritas.org
Oxfam
http://www.oxfam.org
Red Cross/Red Crescent (General)
http://www.redcross.org/
Red Cross/Red Crescent Indonesia (Indonesian)
http://www.palangmerah.org/
Save the Children
http://www.savethechildren.org/
World Vision
http://www.worldvision.org/

Earthquake survivors have been warned against taking shelter in chicken sheds, as some have done, for fear of avian influenza infection.

A description of the health kits provided by the World Health Organization is here:
http://www.who.int/hac/techguidance/ems/standardkits/en/index.html

DHL and the UN have partnered to establish the DHL Disaster Response Team (DRT) Americas, to cover emergencies in Latin America and the Caribbean. This is similar to the Asia-Pacific operation launched in April.
http://www.dhl.com/publish/g0/en/press/release/2006/310506.low.html

Australian Prime Minister John Howard announced special funds associated with the Beaconsfield mine. An A$1 million education scholarship has been established in honor of the miner who was killed, Larry Knight. An A$8 million fund will support community needs, including adjustment to any mine closure.

The US Government Accountability Office (GAO) has issued several reports addressing disaster response:
"Foreign Assistance: USAID Completed Many Caribbean Disaster Recovery Activities, but Several Challenges Hampered Efforts".
http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-06-645
"Disaster Relief: Reimbursement to American Red Cross for Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne"
http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-06-518
"United States Coast Guard: Improvements Needed in Management and Oversight of Rescue System Acquisition"
http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-06-623
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DRM Risks
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Indonesia's Mount Merapi volcano has a large head of lava. Near the epicenter of the Java earthquake, it is believed that an eruption is imminent.

Comoros Islands' Mount Kathala, one of the world's largest active volcanoes, has spewed ash and lava, but after a contained eruption on Thursday, all seismic activity ceased.

Risk Management Solutions (RMS) has launched a comprehensive windstorm model for 12 European countries, using an innovative combination of numeric and parametric models.
http://www.rms.com/NewsPress/PR_052606_EUWS.asp

The US Army Corps of Engineers says it has reached a pre-Katrina level of protection for New Orleans in time for the beginning of the 2006 hurricane season.
http://www.hq.usace.army.mil/cepa/corpspoints/corpspoints.htm

University of Miami researchers warn that parts of New Orleans is subsiding faster than previously understood.
http://www.miami.edu/UMH/CDA/UMH_Main/1,1770,2593-1;47388-3,00.html

Speaking at the WorldBoston forum, Lloyd's America president Wendy Baker said that as long as insurers underwrite appropriately, a national catastrophe fund is unnecessary. On the other hand, A.M. Best Company warned that major storms could cause $100 billion in propoerty losses and wipe out 20 to 40 insurers.
http://www.lloyds.com/News_Centre/Briefings_and_speeches/Insuring_against_the_next_big_one.htm
http://www3.ambest.com/frames/frameserver.asp?site=press&tab=1&altsrc=14&altnum=&refnum=60497348625266506955
--------------------------------------------------
DRM Mitigation
--------------------------------------------------
The Interagency Performance Evaluation Taskforce (IPET) has issued its draft final report on the performance of the New Orleans and Southeast Louisiana Hurricane Protection System during Hurricane Katrina. The US Army Corps of Engineers acknowledged their responsibility for the engineering and design problems that led to the failure of levees and floodwalls. The overall findings include:
* The system did not perform as a system.
* The storm exceeded design criteria, but the performance was less than the design intent.
* The flooding and the consequences of the flooding were pervasive, but also concentrated.
Lessons learned cover resilience, system performance, and risk, as well as knowledge, technology and expertise.
http://www.hq.usace.army.mil/cepa/releases/Interagency_Eval.htm
https://ipet.wes.army.mil/

Aon has responded to a US Treasury request for comment on terrorism insurance with a call for a permanent solution, essential since few carriers can insure risks that cannot be quantified.
http://www.aon.com/about/news/press_release/pr_007B337D.jsp

The American Bankers Association (ABA) Emergency Preparedness Task Force has issued policy recommendations based on lessons learned from Hurricane Katrina, as well as the ABA Emergency Preparedness Toolkit, which covers a range of potential catastrophes, as well as preparation, response, and recovery.
http://www.disasterreductionmonitor.com/2006/06/DRM0401.shtml

US National Guard units are also preparing for hurricane season, including both their work to respond in a disaster and for the protection of themselves and their families. They list six basic preparation steps:
* Forecast insurance needs: Any substantial change in the value of a home or possessions, such as a major remodeling project or new appliances, might mean increased policy limits are needed. With recent increases in property values, a home could cost more to rebuild than when it was first insured. It is important to make sure the policy covers the cost to rebuild.
* Seek shelter from the storm: "Additional Living Expense" coverage will take care of temporary living expenses, such as reasonable hotel bills and meals, while a home is being restored.
* Plan for high tide: Get flood insurance. If residence is near a body of water, levee or dam, or the property experiences significant standing water after a rain, talk with an insurance company or agent to find out whether a separate flood insurance policy is needed.
* Think about strong gusts: A windstorm policy might be needed.
* Put possessions on camera: Create a written inventory of personal possessions that includes the cost of major items, such as furniture, clothing, electronics and jewelry. Taking digital pictures or a video of belongings can help make the claims process go more smoothly.
* Fireproof and waterproof paperwork and records: Store important insurance and financial papers, and home inventory, in a secure place, such as a safe-deposit box. It's wise to keep copies in a more accessible location as well. Consider storing copies in a fireproof box, or send a copy to a trusted family member outside of the area.
http://www.defenselink.mil/news/Jun2006/20060601_5309.html

The Times-Picayune, a leading New Orleans newspaper, has posted "Are We Ready?" to provide information on "the status of levees and pumps, evacuation plans, resources and more".
http://www.nola.com/hurricane/areweready2006/


7. Recommended Reading

On June 5, 1981, the Center for Disease Control's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report published case reports of five healthy young men who died of Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia and other diseases associated with severely compromised immune systems. This was the first report on what has come to be known as Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome, or AIDS. Read the MMWR report here:
http://www.emergingthreatmonitor.com/2006/06/ETM0402.shtml

There is now a generation of people unaware of what it was like to see healthy people suddenly turned into skeletons covered with disfiguring lesions and fungal infections run amok, with no knowledge of what caused the horrendous symptoms, or the rapid progression and certain death of the associated diseases. Today, anti-retroviral therapies have brought the most horrific autoimmune effects of HIV under control. These advanced therapies are too expensive for most of the infected populations in the world, where rapid deaths are still most common.

These events and programs help to remind us of what the past 25 years have encompassed:
AVERT history, pictures and posters
http://www.avert.org/historyi.htm
Jerry Feuer interview
http://www.here-now.org/shows/2006/05/20060531_9.asp
GLAAD
http://www.glaad.org/media/AIDS/index.php
Kaiser Family Foundation
http://www.kff.org/hivaids/aidsat25.cfm
Stop AIDS Project
http://www.stopaids.org/
http://www.beyondchron.org/news/index.php?itemid=3336
Talk of the Nation
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5439596
Telling Our Stories
http://la.indymedia.org/news/2006/06/162011.php

As HIV/AIDS has traveled the world, there has been a common pattern of denial and stigmatization that precedes acceptance and response. The groundbreaking book, "And The Band Played On" by Randy Shilts was seminal in bringing the reality of the plague to public attention. (Penguin)
http://www.fumento.com/shilts.html

This book was made into a movie:
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0106273/

The impact of HIV/AIDS is also movingly shared in the musical Rent, also subsequently made into a movie.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rent_(musical)

This week marks 25 years since the uncovering pandemic was first indicated. For the first time, it appears that new infections may have peaked. UNAIDS Report on the global AIDS epidemic is available here:
http://www.unaids.org/en/HIV_data/2006GlobalReport/

For prior coverage in this Newsletter on the impact of HIV/AIDS on national security, read these features:
https://terrorismcentral.com/Newsletters/2005/120405.html#FeatureArticle
https://terrorismcentral.com/Newsletters/2004/120504.html#FeatureArticle
https://terrorismcentral.com/Newsletters/2003/112303.html#FeatureArticle
https://terrorismcentral.com/Newsletters/2002/120102.html#FeatureArticle

HIV/AIDS is one example of an emerging infectious disease associated with the social and environmental changes of globalization. To better understand this phenomenon and the growing threat it represents, we recommend:
* "AIDS in the Twenty-First Century: Disease and Globalization" by Tony Barnett and Alan Whiteside (Palgrave Macmillan)
http://www.palgrave.com/products/Catalogue.aspx?is=1403997683
http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/short/348/10/967
* "The Coming Plague: Newly Emerging Diseases in a World Out of Balance" by Laurie Garrett (Farrar, Straus and Giroux)
http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/extract/333/5/327


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